Updates on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score and Impact on the Liver Transplant Waiting List: A Narrative Review

Association of easy albumin-bilirubin score with increased mortality in adult trauma patients

INTRODUCTION

The easy albumin-bilirubin (EZ-ALBI) score is calculated using the equation: total bilirubin (mg/dl) - 9 × albumin (g/dl), and is used to evaluate liver functional reserve. This study was designed to investigate whether the EZ-ALBI score serves as an independent risk factor for mortality and is useful for stratifying the mortality risk in adult trauma patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed data from the registered trauma database of the hospital and included 3,637 adult trauma patients (1,241 deaths and 2,396 survivors) due to all trauma caused between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2021. The patients were allocated to the two study groups based on the best EZ-ALBI cutoff point (EZ-ALBI = -28.5), which was determined based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Results revealed that the non-survivors had a significantly higher EZ-ALBI score than the survivors (-26.4 ± 6.5 vs. -31.5 ± 6.2, p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that EZ-ALBI ≥ -28.5was an independent risk factor for mortality (odds ratio, 2.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.63-3.28; p < 0.001). Patients with an EZ-ALBI score ≥ -28.5 presented with 2.47-fold higher adjusted mortality rates than patients with an EZ-ALBI score < -28.5. A propensity score-matched pair cohort of 1,236 patients was developed to reduce baseline disparities in trauma mechanisms. The analysis showed that patients with an EZ-ALBI score ≥ -28.5 had a 4.12 times higher mortality rate compared to patients with an EZ-ALBI score < -28.5.

CONCLUSION

The EZ-ALBI score was a significant independent risk factor for mortality and can serve as a valuable tool for stratifying mortality risk in adult trauma patients by all trauma causes.

Correlation between serum markers and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt prognosis in patients with cirrhotic ascites

BACKGROUND

Individuals with refractory ascites in the context of liver cirrhosis typically face an adverse prognosis. The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is an efficacious intervention, but there is a lack of reliable tools for postoperative prognosis assessment. Previously utilized clinical biochemical markers, such as the serum albumin concentration (Alb), sodium (Na+) concentration, and serum creatinine (Scr), have limited predictive value. Therefore, the quest for novel, specific biomarkers to evaluate the post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites holds significant practical importance.

AIM

To investigate the associations between the Child-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and serum cystatin C (Cys C) level and post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 75 patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites who underwent TIPS at our institution from August 2019 to August 2021. These patients were followed up regularly for two years, and the death toll was meticulously documented. The patients were allocated into a survival group (n = 45 patients) or a deceased group (n = 30 patients) based on their prognosis status. The clinical data of the two groups were collected, and Child-Pugh scores and MELD scores were calculated for analysis. Spearman correlation analysis was carried out to evaluate the correlation of prognosis with Child-Pugh grade, MELD score, and Cys C level. Additionally, a multiple-factor analysis utilizing the Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify independent risk factors affecting the post-TIPS prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) ascertained the predictive value of the Cys C concentration, Child-Pugh grade, and MELD score for the prognosis of liver cirrhosis with refractory ascites in post-TIPS patients.

RESULTS

During a 2-year follow-up period, among 75 patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites who underwent TIPS treatment, 30 patients (40.00%) passed away. The deceased cohort exhibited heightened aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, total bilirubin, Scr, prothrombin time, Cys C, international normalized ratio, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores compared to those of the survival cohort, while Alb and Na+ levels were attenuated in the deceased group (P < 0.05). Spearman analysis revealed moderate to high positive correlations between prognosis and Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and Cys C level (r = 0.709, 0.749, 0.671, P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model demonstrated that the independent risk factors for post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites were Cys C (HR = 3.802; 95%CI: 1.313-11.015), Child-Pugh (HR = 3.030; 95%CI: 1.858-4.943), and MELD (HR = 1.222; 95%CI: 1.073-1.393) scores. ROC analysis confirmed that, compared to those of the classic prognostic models for Child-Pugh and MELD scores, the predictive accuracy of Cys C for post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites was slightly lower. This analysis yielded sensitivity and specificity values of 83.33% and 82.22%, respectively. The area under the curve value at this juncture was 0.883, with an optimal cutoff value set at 1.95 mg/L.

CONCLUSION

Monitoring the serum Cys C concentration is valuable for assessing the post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites. Predictive models based on serum Cys C levels, as opposed to Scr levels, are more beneficial for evaluating the condition and prognosis of patients with ascites due to cirrhosis.

MELD 3.0 in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

The MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) 3.0 score was developed to replace the MELD-Na score that is currently used to prioritize liver allocation for cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation in the United States. The MELD 3.0 calculator includes new inputs from patient sex and serum albumin levels and has new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is expected that use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality modestly and improve access for female liver transplant candidates. The utility of MELD 3.0 and PELDcre (pediatric end-stage liver disease, creatinine) scores for risk stratification in cirrhotic patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and other interventions requires further study. This article reviews the background of the MELD score and the rationale to create MELD 3.0 as well as potential implications of using this newer risk stratification tool in clinical practice.