Risk score for nonhome discharge after lower extremity bypass

A Novel Preoperative Risk Score to Identify Patients at High Risk for Non-Home Discharge After Elective Open Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

BACKGROUND

Non-home discharge (NHD) to a rehabilitation or skilled nursing facility after vascular surgery is poorly described despite its impact on patients. For home-dwelling patients undergoing elective surgery, the need for postoperative NHD can have meaningful implications on quality of life, long-term outcomes, and healthcare spending. Understanding post-surgical NHD risk is essential to preoperative counseling and shared decision making. This is particularly true for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysms as the postoperative course can vary between open and endovascular surgery. We aimed to identify independent predictors of NHD following elective open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (OAR), and to create a clinically useful preoperative risk score.

METHODS

Elective OAR cases were queried from the SVS Vascular Quality Initiative from years 2013-2022. A risk score was created by splitting the data set into two-thirds for development and one-third for validation. A parsimonious stepwise hierarchical multivariable logistic regression controlling for hospital level variation was performed in the development dataset, and the beta-coefficients were used to assign points for a risk score. The score was then validated, and model performance assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 8,274 patients were included and 1,502 (18.2%) required NHD. At baseline, patients who required NHD were more likely to be ≥ 80 years old (23.6% vs. 6.5%), female (35.9% vs. 23.1%), not independently ambulatory (14.6% vs. 4.3%), anemic (24.4% vs. 13.9%), have COPD (41.6% vs. 30.7%), ASA class ≥ 4 (41.0% vs. 32.5%), and a supraceliac proximal clamp (9.8% vs. 5.7%; all P<0.05). Multivariable analysis in the development group identified the following independent predictors of NHD: age ≥ 80 years, not independently ambulatory, proximal clamp location, hypogastric artery occlusion, anemia (Hb <12 g/dL), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, female sex, hypertension, and American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥ 4. These were then used to create a 14-point risk score. Patients were stratified into three groups based upon their risk score: low risk (0-4 points; n=4,966) with an NHD rate of 9.9%, moderate risk (5-6 points; n=2,442) with an NHD rate of 25.5%, and high risk (≥ 7 points; n=886) with an NHD rate of 44.6%. The risk score had good predictive ability with c-statistic=0.73 for model development and c-statistic=0.72 in the validation dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

This novel risk score can predict NHD following elective OAR using characteristics that can be identified preoperatively. Utilization of this score may allow for improved risk assessment, preoperative counseling, and shared decision making.

Preoperative predictors of nonhome discharge after fenestrated-branched endovascular repair of complex abdominal and thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms

BACKGROUND

Nonhome discharge (NHD) has significant implications for patient counseling and discharge planning and is frequently required following fenestrated-branched endovascular aortic repair (FB-EVAR) of complex abdominal aortic aneurysms (CAAA) and thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms (TAAA). We aimed to identify preoperative predictors of NHD after elective FB-EVAR for CAAA and TAAA and develop a risk calculator able to predict NHD.

METHODS

A retrospective review of prospectively collected data on all patients undergoing FB-EVAR between January 2007 and December 2021 at a single institution was performed. Exclusion criteria were admission from a nonhome setting, emergency and repeat FB-EVAR, and discharge to an unknown destination. The cohort was randomly split into separate development (70% of patients) and validation (30%) cohorts to develop a predictive calculator for NHD. Independent variables associated with NHD were assessed in a series of logistic regression analyses from 100 bootstrapped samples of the development set, and a model was developed using the most predictive variables. Resulting parameter estimates were applied to data in the validation set to assess model discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

From the initial cohort of 712 FB-EVAR patients, 644 were included in the study (74% male; mean age, 75.4 ± 7.6 years), including 452 with CAAA (70%) and 192 with TAAA (30%). Early mortality occurred in eight patients (1.2%; 5 in CAAA and 3 in TAAA) and the median hospital stay was 5 days (4 for CAAA and 7 for TAAA). Ninety-seven patients (15%) had a NHD. On multivariable analysis, older age (per year, odds ratio [OR], 1.08; P < .001), female gender (OR, 3.03; P < .001), smoking (OR, 2.86; P = .01), congestive heart failure (OR, 3.05; P = .004), peripheral artery disease (OR, 1.81; P = .07), and extent I (OR, 3.17), II (OR, 2.84), and III (OR, 2.52; all P = .08) TAAAs were associated with an increased likelihood of NHD in the development set. Based on these factors, the risk calculator was developed which accurately predicts NHD in the validation set with an area under the curve of 0.7.

CONCLUSIONS

Older, female smokers with congestive heart failure and peripheral artery disease and more extensive aneurysms are at highest risk of NHD after FB-EVAR. Using only preoperative factors, our risk calculator can predict accurately who will have a NHD, allowing enhanced preoperative patient counselling and accelerated hospital discharge.

Development and Validation of a Novel Preoperative Risk Score to Identify Patients at Risk for Nonhome Discharge after Elective Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair (EVAR)

BACKGROUND

Nonhome discharge (NHD) to a rehabilitation or skilled nursing facility after elective endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) is uncommon. However, NHD after surgery has an important impact on patient quality of life and postdischarge outcomes. Understanding factors that put patients undergoing EVAR at high risk for NHD is essential to providing adequate preoperative counseling and shared decision making. This study aimed to identify independent predictors of NHD following elective EVAR and to create a clinically useful preoperative risk score.

METHODS

Elective EVAR cases were queried from the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative 2014-2018. A risk score was created by splitting the data set into two-thirds for development and one-third for validation. A parsimonious stepwise hierarchical multivariable logistic regression controlling for hospital level variation was performed in the development dataset, and the beta-coefficients were used to assign points for a risk score. The score was then validated, and model performance assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 24,426 patients were included and 932 (3.8%) required NHD. Multivariable analysis in the development group identified independent predictors of NHD, which were used to create a 20-point risk score. Patients were stratified into 3 groups based upon their risk score: low risk (0-7 points; n = 16,699) with an NHD rate of 1.8%, moderate risk (8-13 points; n = 7,315) with an NHD rate of 7.3%, and high risk (≥14 points; n = 412) with an NHD rate of 21.8%. The risk score had good predictive ability with c-statistic = 0.75 for model development and c-statistic = 0.73 in the validation dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

This novel risk score can predict NHD following EVAR using characteristics that can be identified preoperatively. Utilization of this score may allow for improved risk assessment, preoperative counseling, and shared decision making.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

The relationship between anaesthetic technique and graft patency after open lower limb revascularization is unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between 30-day graft patency after elective infrainguinal bypass and anaesthetic technique (regional anaesthesia (RA, i.e. neuraxial and/or peripheral nerve blockade) compared with general anaesthesia (GA)).

Methods

Patients who underwent elective infrainguinal bypass in the 2014–2019 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Vascular Procedure Targeted Lower Extremity Open data set were included. Excluded patients were those under 18 years old, those who did not receive RA or GA, and/or had an international normalized ratio of 1.5 of greater, a partial thromboplastin time more than 35 s, or a platelet count less than 80 × 10⁹/L. The primary outcome was primary graft patency without reintervention. The relationship between anaesthetic technique and patency was analysed with multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Included were 8893 patients with a mean(s.d.) age of 68(11) years and 31.5 per cent female. Within the cohort, 7.7 per cent (n = 688) patients received RA only, 90.4 per cent (n = 8039) GA only, and 1.9 per cent (n = 166) both GA and RA. In the RA-only group, 91.7 per cent (631 of 688) received neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary patency rate was 93.2 per cent (573 of 615) for RA only, and 91.5 per cent (6390 of 6983) for GA only (standardized mean difference, 0.063). RA was not associated with a higher rate of patency compared with GA (adjusted OR, 1.16; 95 per cent c.i., 0.83 to 1.63; P = 0.378).

Conclusion

There was no association between anaesthetic technique and 30-day graft patency after elective infrainguinal bypass surgery. Further prospective studies would be useful to study the impact of anaesthesia technique on important patient-centred outcomes such as long-term patency and non-home discharge.

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the management of chronic limb-threatening ischemia and wound care

In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, the critical limb ischemia (CLI) Global Society aims to develop improved clinical guidance that will inform better care standards to reduce tissue loss and amputations during and following the new SARS‐CoV‐2 era. This will include developing standards of practice, improve gaps in care, and design improved research protocols to study new chronic limb‐threatening ischemia treatment and diagnostic options. Following a round table discussion that identified hypotheses and suppositions the wound care community had during the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic, the CLI Global Society undertook a critical review of literature using PubMed to confirm or rebut these hypotheses, identify knowledge gaps, and analyse the findings in terms of what in wound care has changed due to the pandemic and what wound care providers need to do differently as a result of these changes. Evidence was graded using the Oxford Centre for Evidence‐Based Medicine scheme. The majority of hypotheses and related suppositions were confirmed, but there is noticeable heterogeneity, so the experiences reported herein are not universal for wound care providers and centres. Moreover, the effects of the dynamic pandemic vary over time in geographic areas. Wound care will unlikely return to prepandemic practices. Importantly, Levels 2–5 evidence reveals a paradigm shift in wound care towards a hybrid telemedicine and home healthcare model to keep patients at home to minimize the number of in‐person visits at clinics and hospitalizations, with the exception of severe cases such as chronic limb‐threatening ischemia. The use of telemedicine and home care will likely continue and improve in the postpandemic era.

A novel preoperative risk score for nonhome discharge after elective thoracic endovascular aortic repair

BACKGROUND

Nonhome discharge (NHD) to a rehabilitation or skilled nursing facility after vascular surgery is poorly described despite its large impact on patients. Understanding postsurgical NHD risk is essential to providing adequate preoperative counseling and shared decision making, particularly for elective surgeries. We aimed to identify independent predictors of NHD after elective thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) for thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAA) and to create a clinically useful preoperative risk score.

METHODS

Elective TEVAR cases for descending TAA were queried from the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative from 2014 to 2018. A risk score was created by splitting the dataset into two-thirds for model development and one-third for validation. A parsimonious stepwise hierarchical multivariable logistic regression controlling for hospital level variation was performed in the development dataset, and the beta-coefficients were used to assign points for a risk score. This score was then cross-validated and model performance assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 1469 patients were included and 213 (14.5%) required NHD. At baseline, patients who required NHD were more likely to be ≥80 years old (35.2% vs 19.4%), female (58.7% vs 40.6%), functionally dependent (42.3% vs 24.0%), and anemic (46.5% vs 27.8%), and to have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (41.3% vs 33.4%), congestive heart failure (18.8% vs 11.1%), and American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥4 (51.6% vs 39.8%; all P < .05). Multivariable analysis in the development group identified independent predictors of NHD that were used to create an 18-point risk score. Patients were stratified into three groups based upon their risk score: low risk (0-7 points; n = 563) with an NHD rate of 4.3%, moderate risk (8-11 points; n = 701) with an NHD rate of 17.0%, and high risk (≥12 points; n = 205) with an NHD rate of 34.2%. The risk score had good predictive ability with a c-statistic of 0.75 for model development and a c-statistic of 0.72 in the validation dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

This novel risk score can predict NHD after TEVAR for TAA using characteristics that can be identified preoperatively. The use of this score may allow for improved risk assessment, preoperative counseling, and shared decision making.