Spatial clusters, social determinants of health and risk of COVID-19 mortality in Brazilian children and adolescents: A nationwide population-based ecological study

Using generalized structured additive regression models to determine factors associated with and clusters for COVID-19 hospital deaths in South Africa

BACKGROUND

The first case of COVID-19 in South Africa was reported in March 2020 and the country has since recorded over 3.6 million laboratory-confirmed cases and 100 000 deaths as of March 2022. Transmission and infection of SARS-CoV-2 virus and deaths in general due to COVID-19 have been shown to be spatially associated but spatial patterns in in-hospital deaths have not fully been investigated in South Africa. This study uses national COVID-19 hospitalization data to investigate the spatial effects on hospital deaths after adjusting for known mortality risk factors.

METHODS

COVID-19 hospitalization data and deaths were obtained from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD). Generalized structured additive logistic regression model was used to assess spatial effects on COVID-19 in-hospital deaths adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Continuous covariates were modelled by assuming second-order random walk priors, while spatial autocorrelation was specified with Markov random field prior and fixed effects with vague priors respectively. The inference was fully Bayesian.

RESULTS

The risk of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality increased with patient age, with admission to intensive care unit (ICU) (aOR = 4.16; 95% Credible Interval: 4.05-4.27), being on oxygen (aOR = 1.49; 95% Credible Interval: 1.46-1.51) and on invasive mechanical ventilation (aOR = 3.74; 95% Credible Interval: 3.61-3.87). Being admitted in a public hospital (aOR = 3.16; 95% Credible Interval: 3.10-3.21) was also significantly associated with mortality. Risk of in-hospital deaths increased in months following a surge in infections and dropped after months of successive low infections highlighting crest and troughs lagging the epidemic curve. After controlling for these factors, districts such as Vhembe, Capricorn and Mopani in Limpopo province, and Buffalo City, O.R. Tambo, Joe Gqabi and Chris Hani in Eastern Cape province remained with significantly higher odds of COVID-19 hospital deaths suggesting possible health systems challenges in those districts.

CONCLUSION

The results show substantial COVID-19 in-hospital mortality variation across the 52 districts. Our analysis provides information that can be important for strengthening health policies and the public health system for the benefit of the whole South African population. Understanding differences in in-hospital COVID-19 mortality across space could guide interventions to achieve better health outcomes in affected districts.

Spatial clustering of low rates of COVID-19 vaccination among children and adolescents and their relationship with social determinants of health in Brazil: a nationwide population-based ecological study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clusters of high and low COVID-19 vaccination rates among children and adolescents across Brazilian municipalities and their relationship to social determinants of health.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a nationwide population-based ecological study.

METHODS

We have obtained for each of the 5570 Brazilian municipalities data on the COVID-19 vaccination rate of children and adolescents by August 16, 2022, the Gini index, the social vulnerability index and the municipal human development index. A Bayesian empirical local model was used to identify fluctuations in the COVID-19 vaccination rates. Spatial clusters were identified using scan spatial statistic tests. The relationship among COVID-19 vaccination rates and social determinants of health was explored by using multiple linear regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, 52.1% of children aged 5-11 years and 72.8% of adolescents aged 12-17 years have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in Brazil by mid-August 2022. There was spatial dependence on the smoothed rates for both children (I Moran 0.66; P < 0.001) and adolescent (I Moran 0.65; P < 0.001) groups. The lowest rates occurred in municipalities in the North and Northeast regions. Municipalities with a higher Gini Index, higher social vulnerability index and lower municipal human development index were more likely to have a lower COVID-19 vaccination rate for both children and adolescent groups.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 vaccination of children and adolescents was heterogeneously distributed, with spatial clusters of the lowest vaccination rates occurring mainly in municipalities with marked socio-economic disparities and social vulnerability, especially in the North and Northeast regions.