Molecular marker prediction for days open and pregnancy rate in Holstein cows managed in a warm climate

Association between days post conception and lactation persistency in dairy cattle

Determining the optimal insemination moment for individual cows is complex, particularly when considering the impact of pregnancy on milk production. The effect of pregnancy on the absolute milk yield has already been reported in several studies. Currently, there is limited quantitative knowledge about the association between days post conception (DPC) and lactation persistency, based on a lactation curve model, and, specifically, how persistency changes during pregnancy and relates to the days in milk at conception (DIMc). Understanding this association might provide valuable insights to determine the optimal insemination moment. This study, therefore, aimed to investigate the association between DPC and lactation persistency, with an additional focus on the influence of DIMc. Available milk production data from 2005 to 2022 were available for 23,908 cows from 87 herds located throughout the Netherlands and Belgium. Persistency was measured by a lactation curve characteristic decay, representing the time taken to halve milk production after peak yield. Decay was calculated for 8 DPC (0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180 and 210 d after DIMc) and served as the dependent variable. Independent variables included DPC, DIMc (< = 60, 61-90, 91-120, 121-150, 151-180, 181-210, > 210), parity group, DPC × parity group, DPC × DIMc and variables from 30 d before DIMc as covariates. The results showed an increase in decay, i.e., a decrease in persistency, during pregnancy for both parity groups, albeit in different ways. Specifically, from DPC 150 to DPC 210, multiparous cows showed a higher decline in persistency compared with primiparous cows. Furthermore, a later DIMc (cows conceiving later) was associated with higher persistency. Except for the early DIMc groups (DIMc < 90), DIMc does not impact the change in persistency by gestation. The findings from this study contribute to a better understanding of how DPC and DIMc during lactation influence lactation persistency, enabling more informed decision-making by farmers who wish to take persistency into account in their reproduction management.

Prediction of persistency for day 305 of lactation at the moment of the insemination decision

When deciding on the voluntary waiting period of an individual cow, it might be useful to have insight into the persistency for the remainder of that lactation at the moment of the insemination decision, especially for farmers who consider persistency in their reproduction management. Currently, breeding values for persistency are calculated for dairy cows but, to our knowledge, prediction models to accurately predict persistency at different moments of insemination are lacking. This study aimed to predict lactation persistency for DIM 305 at different insemination moments (DIM 50, 75, 100, and 125). Available cow and herd level data from 2005 to 2022 were collected for a total of 20,508 cows from 85 herds located in the Netherlands and Belgium. Lactation curve characteristics were estimated for every daily record using the data up to and including that day. Persistency was defined as the number of days it takes for the milk production to decrease by half during the declining stage of lactation, and calculated from the estimated lactation curve characteristic 'decay'. Four linear regression models for each of the selected insemination moment were built separately to predict decay at DIM 305 (decay-305). Independent variables included the lactation curve characteristics at the selected insemination moment, daily milk yield, age, calving season, parity group and other herd variables. The average decay-305 of primiparous cows was lower than that of multiparous cows (1.55 *10-3 vs. 2.41*10-3, equivalent to a persistency of 447 vs. 288 days, respectively). Results showed that our models had limitations in accurately predicting persistency, although predictions improved slightly at later insemination moments, with R2 values ranging between 0.27 and 0.41. It can thus be concluded that, based only on cow and herd milk production information, accurate prediction of persistency for DIM 305 is not feasible.