Training in the mitigation of anchoring bias: A test of the consider-the-opposite strategy

Debiasing thinking among non-WEIRD reasoners

Human reasoning has been shown to be biased in a variety of situations. While most studies have focused on samples of WEIRD participants (from Western Educated Industrialized Rich and Democratic societies), the sparse non-WEIRD data on the topic suggest an even stronger propensity for biased reasoning. This could be explained by a competence issue (people lack the ability to integrate logical knowledge into their reasoning) or a performance issue (people possess the logical knowledge but do not know it is relevant). We addressed this question using a debiasing paradigm with the base-rate task on a sample of non-industrialized people, the Himba of Namibia. After a short training, most participants were debiased, lending credence to the performance account. Debiasing was however to some extent boosted by schooling and living environment suggesting that competence also plays a role (in that more acquired knowledge allows for a higher training benefit). Results imply that debias interventions can be successfully employed to boost sound reasoning around the world.

Making meaning from fragmentary fossils: Early Homo in the Early to early Middle Pleistocene

In celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Journal of Human Evolution, we re-evaluate the fossil record for early Homo (principally Homo erectus, Homo habilis, and Homo rudolfensis) from early diversification and dispersal in the Early Pleistocene to the ultimate demise of H. erectus in the early Middle Pleistocene. The mid-1990s marked an important historical turning point in our understanding of early Homo with the redating of key H. erectus localities, the discovery of small H. erectus in Asia, and the recovery of an even earlier presence of early Homo in Africa. As such, we compare our understanding of early Homo before and after this time and discuss how the order of fossil discovery and a focus on anchor specimens has shaped, and in many ways biased, our interpretations of early Homo species and the fossils allocated to them. Fragmentary specimens may counter conventional wisdom but are often overlooked in broad narratives. We recognize at least three different cranial and two or three pelvic morphotypes of early Homo. Just one postcranial morph aligns with any certainty to a cranial species, highlighting the importance of explicitly identifying how we link specimens together and to species; we offer two ways of visualizing these connections. Chronologically and morphologically H. erectus is a member of early Homo, not a temporally more recent species necessarily evolved from either H. habilis or H. rudolfensis. Nonetheless, an ancestral-descendant notion of their evolution influences expectations around the anatomy of missing elements, especially the foot. Weak support for long-held notions of postcranial modernity in H. erectus raises the possibility of alternative drivers of dispersal. New observations suggest that the dearth of faces in later H. erectus may mask taxonomic diversity in Asia and suggest various later mid-Pleistocene populations could derive from either Asia or Africa. Future advances will rest on the development of nuanced ways to affiliate fossils, greater transparency of implicit assumptions, and attention to detailed life history information for comparative collections; all critical pursuits for future research given the great potential they have to enrich our evolutionary reconstructions for the next fifty years and beyond.

Comparing instructional strategies to support student teachers' learning to prepare an open-minded citizenship education lesson

Open-mindedness is defined as one's willingness and ability to consider opposing beliefs and perspectives and give them a serious, impartial consideration by setting aside one's commitment towards one's own beliefs and perspectives. Learning to prepare and teach open-minded lessons is a crucial skill for student teachers because it fosters an atmosphere in which pupils feel free to express their own views and to learn about the views of others. The aim of this experiment was to examine which instructional strategy best supports student teachers' learning to prepare an open-minded citizenship education lesson. Therefore, participants (n = 176) processed an instruction on how to prepare an open-minded citizenship education lesson through learning by teaching on video, preparing to teach, or re-study (control condition), and as a post-test designed a lesson plan. We examined the completeness and accuracy of the explanations of the instructional content, feelings of social presence and arousal, open-mindedness levels, the completeness and accuracy of the lesson plans, and the conceptual knowledge of the instructional content. In addition, the lesson plans were graded on overall quality. Results showed that all participants scored higher on open-mindedness as measured with the Actively Open-minded Thinking scale after the experiment than before the experiment. Participants in the control condition prepared significantly more accurate and complete open-minded lessons than participants in the other two conditions, suggesting they have gained better understanding of the instructional content. There were no significant differences between the conditions on the other outcome measures.

Analysis of noise and bias errors in intelligence information systems

An intelligence information system (IIS) is a particular kind of information systems (IS) devoted to the analysis of intelligence relevant to national security. Professional and military intelligence analysts play a key role in this, but their judgments can be inconsistent, mainly due to noise and bias. The team-oriented aspects of the intelligence analysis process complicates the situation further. To enable analysts to achieve better judgments, the authors designed, implemented, and validated an innovative IIS for analyzing UK Military Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) data. The developed tool, the Team Information Decision Engine (TIDE), relies on an innovative preference learning method along with an aggregation procedure that permits combining scores by individual analysts into aggregated scores. This paper reports on a series of validation trials in which the performance of individual and team-oriented analysts was accessed with respect to their effectiveness and efficiency. Results show that the use of the developed tool enhanced the effectiveness and efficiency of intelligence analysis process at both individual and team levels.

An Evaluation Framework for Sustainable Plus Energy Neighbourhoods: Moving Beyond the Traditional Building Energy Assessment

There are international activities and on-going initiatives, particularly at the European level, to define what Positive Energy Districts should be, as the driving concept for the urban transition to a sustainable future. The first objective of the paper is to contribute to the on-going and lively debate about the definition of the notion of Sustainable Plus Energy Neighbourhood (SPEN), which highlights the multiple dimensions when talking about sustainability in districts moving beyond the traditional and strict building energy assessment. Based on a holistic methodology which ensures the consideration of the multidimensional nature and goals of SPEN, the paper outlines an evaluation framework. The evaluation framework defines the key performance indicators distributed in five categories that consider energy and power performance, GHG emissions, indoor environmental quality, smartness, flexibility, life cycle costs and social sustainability. This framework is designed to be implemented during integrated design processes aiming to select design options for a neighbourhood as well within during the operational phase for monitoring its performance. Further work will include the implementation and validation of the framework in four real-life positive energy neighbourhoods in different climate zones of Europe as part of syn.ikia H2020 project.

Individual Differences in Anchoring Effect: Evidence for the Role of Insufficient Adjustment

Although the anchoring effect is one of the most reliable results of experimental psychology, researchers have only recently begun to examine the role of individual differences in susceptibility to this cognitive bias. Yet, first correlational studies yielded inconsistent results, failing to identify any predictors that have a systematic effect on anchored decisions. The present research seeks to remedy methodological shortcomings of foregoing research by employing modified within-subject anchoring procedure. Results confirmed the robustness of phenomenon in extended paradigm and replicated previous findings on anchor's direction and distance as significant experimental factors of the anchoring effect size. Obtained measures of individual differences in susceptibility to anchoring were fairly reliable but shared only small portion of variability with intelligence, cognitive reflection, and basic personality traits. However, in a group of more reflective subjects, substantial negative correlation between intelligence and anchoring was detected. This finding indicates that, at least for some subjects, effortful cognitive process of adjustment plays role in the emergence of the anchoring effect, which is in line with expectations of dual-process theories of human reasoning.

Perspective Taking and Self-Persuasion: Why "Putting Yourself in Their Shoes" Reduces Openness to Attitude Change

Counterattitudinal-argument generation is a powerful tool for opening people up to alternative views. On the basis of decades of research, it should be especially effective when people adopt the perspective of individuals who hold alternative views. In the current research, however, we found the opposite: In three preregistered experiments (total N = 2,734), we found that taking the perspective of someone who endorses a counterattitudinal view lowers receptiveness to that view and reduces attitude change following a counterattitudinal-argument-generation task. This ironic effect can be understood through value congruence: Individuals who take the opposition's perspective generate arguments that are incongruent with their own values, which diminishes receptiveness and attitude change. Thus, trying to "put yourself in their shoes" can ultimately undermine self-persuasion. Consistent with a value-congruence account, this backfire effect is attenuated when people take the perspective of someone who holds the counterattitudinal view yet has similar overall values.

On Moderator Detection in Anchoring Research: Implications of Ignoring Estimate Direction

Anchoring, whereby judgments assimilate to previously considered standards, is one of the most reliable effects in psychology. In the last decade, researchers have become increasingly interested in identifying moderators of anchoring effects. We argue that a drawback of traditional moderator analyses in the standard anchoring paradigm is that they ignore estimate direction—whether participants’ estimates are higher or lower than the anchor value. We suggest that failing to consider estimate direction can sometimes obscure moderation in anchoring tasks, and discuss three potential analytic solutions that take estimate direction into account. Understanding moderators of anchoring effects is essential for a basic understanding of anchoring and for applied research on reducing the influence of anchoring in real-world judgments. Considering estimate direction reduces the risk of failing to detect moderation.