Predicting animal performance through climatic and plant phenology variables: The case of an omnivore hibernating species in Finland

Climate change and population persistence in a hibernating marsupial

Climate change has physiological consequences on organisms, ecosystems and human societies, surpassing the pace of organismal adaptation. Hibernating mammals are particularly vulnerable as winter survival is determined by short-term physiological changes triggered by temperature. In these animals, winter temperatures cannot surpass a certain threshold, above which hibernators arouse from torpor, increasing several fold their energy needs when food is unavailable. Here, we parameterized a numerical model predicting energy consumption in heterothermic species and modelled winter survival at different climate change scenarios. As a model species, we used the arboreal marsupial monito del monte (genus Dromiciops), which is recognized as one of the few South American hibernators. We modelled four climate change scenarios (from optimistic to pessimistic) based on IPCC projections, predicting that northern and coastal populations (Dromiciops bozinovici) will decline because the minimum number of cold days needed to survive the winter will not be attained. These populations are also the most affected by habitat fragmentation and changes in land use. Conversely, Andean and other highland populations, in cooler environments, are predicted to persist and thrive. Given the widespread presence of hibernating mammals around the world, models based on simple physiological parameters, such as this one, are becoming essential for predicting species responses to warming in the short term.

A review of the physiology of a survival expert of big freeze, deep snow, and an empty stomach: the boreal raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides)

The raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) is an invasive canid originating from eastern Asia. Here, we review its physiological adaptations to wintering, with an emphasis on northern Europe, where the raccoon dog spends the coldest part of the year in winter sleep. The timing of physiological changes related to wintering is connected to photoperiod by melatonin. In preparation to winter, raccoon dogs display autumnal hyperphagia and fattening probably regulated by the interaction of several peptide hormones. Sufficient fat deposition is essential for survival through the cold season and for reproduction in spring. The wintering strategy includes alternating periods of physical activity and passivity. Effective arousal and foraging during warmer bouts are enabled by normoglycaemia. During active periods, raccoon dogs are opportunistic participants in the food web, and they mainly utilize ungulate carcasses, plant material, and small mammals. Preferred wintertime habitats include watersides, forests, wetlands, and gardens. However, many food items become limited in mid-winter and snow restricts foraging leading to a negative energy balance. During passivity, energy is preserved by denning and by modest metabolic suppression, probably enabled by decreased thyroid hormone levels. Sleepiness and satiety could be maintained by high growth hormone and leptin concentrations. Several hormones participate in the extension of phase II of fasting with selective fatty acid mobilization and efficient protein conservation. The blood count, organ function tests, bone mass, and bone biomechanical properties exhibit high resistance against catabolism, and breeding can be successful after significant weight loss. The flexible physiological response to wintering is probably one reason enabling the successful colonization of this species into new areas.

Socially mediated effects of climate change decrease survival of hibernating Alpine marmots

In the context of global change, an increasing challenge is to understand the interaction between weather variables and life histories. Species-specific life histories should condition the way climate influences population dynamics, particularly those that are associated with environmental constraints, such as lifestyles like hibernation and sociality. However, the influence of lifestyle in the response of organisms to climate change remains poorly understood. Based on a 23-year longitudinal study on Alpine marmots, we investigated how their lifestyle, characterized by a long hibernation and a high degree of sociality, interacts with the ongoing climate change to shape temporal variation in age-specific survival. As generally reported in other hibernating species, we expected survival of Alpine marmots to be affected by the continuous lengthening of the growing season of plants more than by changes in winter conditions. We found, however, that Alpine marmots displayed lower juvenile survival over time. Colder winters associated with a thinner snow layer lowered juvenile survival, which in turn was associated with a decrease in the relative number of helpers in groups the following years, and therefore lowered the chances of over-winter survival of juveniles born in the most recent years. Our results provide evidence that constraints on life-history traits associated with hibernation and sociality caused juvenile survival to decrease over time, which might prevent Alpine marmots coping successfully with climate change.

Lack of sex-specific movement patterns in an alien species at its invasion front - consequences for invasion speed

Efficient targeting of actions to reduce the spread of invasive alien species relies on understanding the spatial, temporal, and individual variation of movement, in particular related to dispersal. Such patterns may differ between individuals at the invasion front compared to individuals in established and dense populations due to differences in environmental and ecological conditions such as abundance of conspecifics or sex-specific dispersal affecting the encounter rate of potential mates. We assessed seasonal and diurnal variation in movement pattern (step length and turning angle) of adult male and female raccoon dog at their invasion front in northern Sweden using data from Global Positioning System (GPS)-marked adult individuals and assessed whether male and female raccoon dog differed in their movement behavior. There were few consistent sex differences in movement. The rate of dispersal was rather similar over the months, suggesting that both male and female raccoon dog disperse during most of the year, but with higher speed during spring and summer. There were diurnal movement patterns in both sexes with more directional and faster movement during the dark hours. However, the short summer nights may limit such movement patterns, and long-distance displacement was best explained by fine-scale movement patterns from 18:00 to 05:00, rather than by movement patterns only from twilight and night. Simulation of dispersing raccoon dogs suggested a higher frequency of male-female encounters that were further away from the source population for the empirical data compared to a scenario with sex differences in movement pattern. The lack of sex differences in movement pattern at the invasion front results in an increased likelihood for reproductive events far from the source population. Animals outside the source population should be considered potential reproducing individuals, and a high effort to capture such individuals is needed throughout the year to prevent further spread.

Functional analysis of normalized difference vegetation index curves reveals overwinter mule deer survival is driven by both spring and autumn phenology

Large herbivore populations respond strongly to remotely sensed measures of primary productivity. Whereas most studies in seasonal environments have focused on the effects of spring plant phenology on juvenile survival, recent studies demonstrated that autumn nutrition also plays a crucial role. We tested for both direct and indirect (through body mass) effects of spring and autumn phenology on winter survival of 2315 mule deer fawns across a wide range of environmental conditions in Idaho, USA. We first performed a functional analysis that identified spring and autumn as the key periods for structuring the among-population and among-year variation of primary production (approximated from 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) along the growing season. A path analysis showed that early winter precipitation and direct and indirect effects of spring and autumn NDVI functional components accounted for 45% of observed variation in overwinter survival. The effect size of autumn phenology on body mass was about twice that of spring phenology, while direct effects of phenology on survival were similar between spring and autumn. We demonstrate that the effects of plant phenology vary across ecosystems, and that in semi-arid systems, autumn may be more important than spring for overwinter survival.

Trade-offs between clonal and sexual reproduction in Sagittaria latifolia (Alismataceae) scale up to affect the fitness of entire clones

Many plants combine sexual reproduction with vegetative propagation, but how trade-offs between these reproductive modes affect fitness is poorly understood. Although such trade-offs have been demonstrated at the level of individual shoots (ramets), there is little evidence that they scale up to affect genet fitness. For hermaphrodites, reproductive investment is further divided between female and male sexual functions. Female function should generally incur greater carbon costs than male function, which might involve greater nitrogen (N) costs. Using a common garden experiment with diclinous, clonal Sagittaria latifolia we manipulated investment in reproduction through female and male sex functions of 412 plants from monoecious and dioecious populations. We detected a 1:1 trade-off between biomass investment in female function and clonal reproduction. For male function, there was no apparent trade-off between clonal and sexual reproduction in terms of biomass investment. Instead, male function incurred a substantially higher N cost. Our results indicate that: trade-offs between investment in clonal propagation and sexual reproduction occur at the genet level in S. latifolia; and sexual reproduction interferes with clonal expansion, with investment in female function limiting the quantity of clonal propagules produced, and investment in male function limiting the nutrient content of clonal propagules.

Lifetime selection on a hypoallometric size trait in the spotted hyena

Size-related traits are common targets of natural selection, yet there is a relative paucity of data on selection among mammals, particularly from studies measuring lifetime reproductive success (LRS). We present the first phenotypic selection analysis using LRS on size-related traits in a large terrestrial carnivore, the spotted hyena, which displays a rare pattern of female-biased sexual size dimorphism (SSD). Using path analysis, we investigate the operation of selection to address hypotheses proposed to explain SSD in spotted hyenas. Ideal size measures are elusive, and allometric variation often obfuscates interpretation of size proxies. We adopt a novel approach integrating two common methods of assessing size, and demonstrate lifetime selection on size-related traits that scale hypoallometrically with overall body size. Our data support selection on hypoallometric traits in hyenas, but not on traits exhibiting isometric or hyperallometric scaling relationships, or on commonly used measures of overall body size. Our results represent the first estimate of lifetime selection on a large carnivore, and suggest a possible route for maintenance of female-biased SSD in spotted hyenas. Finally, our results highlight the importance of choosing appropriate measures when estimating animal body size, and suggest caution in interpreting selection on size-related traits as selection on size itself.