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Yan Z, Kamanmalek S, Alamdari N. Predicting coastal harmful algal blooms using integrated data-driven analysis of environmental factors. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:169253. [PMID: 38101630 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 12/07/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023]
Abstract
Coastal harmful algal blooms (HABs) have become one of the challenging environmental problems in the world's thriving coastal cities due to the interference of multiple stressors from human activities and climate change. Past HAB predictions primarily relied on single-source data, overlooked upstream land use, and typically used a single prediction algorithm. To address these limitations, this study aims to develop predictive models to establish the relationship between the HAB indicator - chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and various environmental stressors, under appropriate lagging predictive scenarios. To achieve this, we first applied the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) to Chl-a to precisely identify two prediction scenarios. We then combined multi-source data and several machine learning algorithms to predict harmful algae, using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to extract key features influencing output from the prediction models. Our findings reveal an apparent 1-month autoregressive characteristic in Chl-a, leading us to create two scenarios: 1-month lead prediction and current-month prediction. The Extra Tree Regressor (ETR), with an R2 of 0.92, excelled in 1-month lead predictions, while the Random Forest Regressor (RFR) was most effective for current-month predictions with an R2 of 0.69. Additionally, we identified current month Chl-a, developed land use, total phosphorus, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) as critical features for accurate predictions. Our predictive framework, which can be applied to coastal regions worldwide, provides decision-makers with crucial tools for effectively predicting and mitigating HAB threats in major coastal cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhengxiao Yan
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32310, USA
| | - Sara Kamanmalek
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32310, USA
| | - Nasrin Alamdari
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32310, USA.
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Margiotta F, Balestra C, Buondonno A, Casotti R, D'Ambra I, Di Capua I, Gallia R, Mazzocchi MG, Merquiol L, Pepi M, Percopo I, Saggiomo M, Sarno D, Zingone A. Do plankton reflect the environmental quality status? The case of a post-industrial Mediterranean Bay. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 160:104980. [PMID: 32907718 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.104980] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2019] [Revised: 03/26/2020] [Accepted: 03/27/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
While the effects of industrial contamination in coastal areas may persist for years in benthos communities, plankton should not show permanent impairments because of their high spatial dynamics, fast turnover times and pronounced seasonality. To test this hypothesis, in 2019 we conducted five surveys in the Bay of Pozzuoli (Gulf of Naples, Mediterranean Sea), in front of a dismissed steel factory and in the adjacent inshore coastal waters. High seasonal variability was observed for bacteria, phytoplankton and mesozooplankton, whereas plankton spatial gradients were relatively smooth during each survey. Plankton biomass and diversity did not reveal any effects of past industrial activities not even at the innermost stations of the Bay, which however showed some signals of present anthropogenic pressure. Hydrodynamic and morphological features likely play a prominent role in maintaining a relatively good status of the plankton of the Bay, which hints at the relevance of coastal circulation and meteorological dynamics to revitalize areas impacted by human activities.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Cecilia Balestra
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Angela Buondonno
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Raffaella Casotti
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Isabella D'Ambra
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Iole Di Capua
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Roberto Gallia
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | | | - Louise Merquiol
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Milva Pepi
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Isabella Percopo
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Maria Saggiomo
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Diana Sarno
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Adriana Zingone
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
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Limatola N, Bertocci I, Chun JT, Musco L, Munari M, Caramiello D, Danovaro R, Santella L. Oxygen supersaturation mitigates the impact of the regime of contaminated sediment reworking on sea urchin fertilization process. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 158:104951. [PMID: 32217298 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.104951] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2019] [Revised: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 03/07/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Dismissed industrial plants with chronic environmental contamination globally affect all levels of biological organization in concert with other natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Assessing the impact of such perturbations and finding effective ways to mitigate them have clear ecological and societal implications. Through indoor manipulative experiments, we assessed here the effects of the temporal regime of reworking of contaminated sediment from the Bagnoli-Coroglio brownfield (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) on the fertilization process in Paracentrotus lividus. Adult sea urchins were kept for one month in tanks containing contaminated sediment that was re-suspended according to two temporal patterns of water turbulence differing in the time intervals between consecutive events of agitation (mimicking the storms naturally occurring in the study area) in seawater with natural vs. supersaturated oxygenation levels. At the end of the treatment, gametes were collected and used to test the hypothesis that the regime of contaminated sediment reworking negatively, but reversibly, affects morphological and physiological traits of the fertilized eggs. We found that aggregated events of sediment re-suspension had profound negative effects on gamete interactions and Ca2+ signaling at fertilization. The same experimental condition also inflicted marked ultrastructural changes in eggs. Importantly, however, such detrimental effects were inhibited by increased oxygenation. By contrast, the regime of sediment re-working with a longer interval between consecutive turbulent events had only marginal effects. Thus, the current and predicted changes of climate-related disturbance appear to modulate the biological effects of chronic contamination in post-industrial areas, suggesting that environmental rehabilitation via restoration of habitat-forming primary producers such as seagrasses or algal canopies could alleviate the pollutants' effects on resident biota.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nunzia Limatola
- Research Infrastructures for Marine Biological Resources (RIMAR), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale 1, Napoli, 80121, Italy
| | - Iacopo Bertocci
- Integrative Marine Ecology Department (EMI), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale 1, Napoli, I- 80121, Italy; Department of Biology, University of Pisa, CoNISMa, Via Derna 1, Pisa, I-56126, Italy
| | - Jong Tai Chun
- Biology and Evolution of Marine Organisms Department (BEOM), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale 1, Napoli, I- 80121, Italy
| | - Luigi Musco
- Integrative Marine Ecology Department (EMI), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale 1, Napoli, I- 80121, Italy
| | - Marco Munari
- Integrative Marine Ecology Department (EMI), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale 1, Napoli, I- 80121, Italy
| | - Davide Caramiello
- Research Infrastructures for Marine Biological Resources (RIMAR), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale 1, Napoli, 80121, Italy
| | - Roberto Danovaro
- Research Infrastructures for Marine Biological Resources (RIMAR), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale 1, Napoli, 80121, Italy; Università Politecnica delle Marche, Via Brecce Bianche, Ancona, I-60131, Italy
| | - Luigia Santella
- Research Infrastructures for Marine Biological Resources (RIMAR), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale 1, Napoli, 80121, Italy.
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Gallo A, Guida M, Armiento G, Siciliano A, Mormile N, Carraturo F, Pellegrini D, Morroni L, Tosti E, Ferrante MI, Montresor M, Molisso F, Sacchi M, Danovaro R, Lofrano G, Libralato G. Species-specific sensitivity of three microalgae to sediment elutriates. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 156:104901. [PMID: 32056796 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.104901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2019] [Revised: 02/03/2020] [Accepted: 02/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Microalgae are considered good bioindicators of marine environmental quality. Frequently, they are used to investigate the toxicity of sediment elutriates, but their sensitivity is disputed. This paper compared the sensitivity of Phaeodactylum tricornutum (diatom), Skeletonema costatum (diatom), and Dunaliella tertiolecta (green alga), analyzing 257 samples of elutriates (1:4 sediment: water ratio), considering growth inhibition (72 h) as the reference endpoint and sediment chemical (metals, metalloids and polyaromatic hydrocarbons) and grain size. Results of the toxicity tests showed that the microalgae sensitivity was not correlated. The integration of chemical data did not allow to discriminate toxicity effects but contributed to highlight that D. tertiolecta was the most sensitive microalgae (no cell wall) followed by P. tricornutum and S. costatum. Further analysis, including lines of evidence and weight of evidence approaches to calculate risk quotients of elutriate samples, confirmed these results.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Gallo
- Department of Biology and Evolution of Marine Organisms, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy
| | - M Guida
- Department of Biology, University of Naples Federico II, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Naples, Italy; Department of Marine Biotechnology, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Naples, Italy
| | - G Armiento
- ENEA, Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Via Anguillarese, 301, 00123, Roma, Italy
| | - A Siciliano
- Department of Biology, University of Naples Federico II, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Naples, Italy
| | - N Mormile
- Department of Biology, University of Naples Federico II, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Naples, Italy
| | - F Carraturo
- Department of Biology, University of Naples Federico II, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Naples, Italy
| | - D Pellegrini
- ISPRA, Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Via del Cedro (c/o Dogana d'Acqua), 57122, Livorno, Italy
| | - L Morroni
- ISPRA, Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Via del Cedro (c/o Dogana d'Acqua), 57122, Livorno, Italy
| | - E Tosti
- Department of Biology and Evolution of Marine Organisms, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy
| | - M I Ferrante
- Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy
| | - M Montresor
- Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy
| | - F Molisso
- Istituto per le Scienze Marine (ISMAR), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Calata Porta di Massa, 80133, Napoli, Italy
| | - M Sacchi
- Istituto per le Scienze Marine (ISMAR), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Calata Porta di Massa, 80133, Napoli, Italy
| | - R Danovaro
- Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy; Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Polytechnic University of Marche, Ancona, Italy
| | - G Lofrano
- Centro Servizi Metrologici e Tecnologici Avanzati (CeSMA), Complesso Universitario di Monte Sant'Angelo, Via Cinthia 21, 80126, Naples, Italy
| | - G Libralato
- Department of Biology, University of Naples Federico II, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Naples, Italy; Department of Marine Biotechnology, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Naples, Italy.
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