Habitat suitability, niche unfilling and the potential spread of Pterois miles in the Mediterranean Sea

Exploring the impact of temporal resolution on detecting shifts in the invasive species niche: Insights from Lessepsian fishes

In this study, we estimate the niche overlap between native and invaded ranges of 36 Lessepsian fish, focusing on how this estimate might vary in relation to the temporal resolution of sea surface temperature and salinity, which are the main niche axes determining their distribution. Specifically, we wanted to address the following questions: (i) Does the choice of temporal averaging method of variables influence the estimation of niche overlap for individual variables? (ii) Does this temporal resolution effect persist when conducting bivariate niche estimations? Niches overlap was estimated by calculating two indices and these analyses were repeated at two temporal resolutions, matching observations to the classic 'multidecadal' average of environmental conditions and to the corresponding annual average of records. Results are compared with verify whether differences can be detected in the magnitude of niche commonality measured at annual or multidecadal temporal resolution. The findings show that the temporal resolution of the data significantly influences estimates of overlap in the thermal niche. Specifically, our analysis indicates a considerable disparity between native and invasive niche regions for most species, particularly when evaluated over multidecadal periods compared with matching occurrence data to the annual mean values of years the occurrence was observed, that is matching occurrence data to a common average of 'present' conditions or to the annual mean values of years of observation. In particular, the largest overlaps between native and invaded niches occur along the salinity axis, regardless of temporal resolution. When considering both temperature and salinity together, the results remain unaffected by the temporal resolution of the environmental data. Almost 30% of the species show a different niche in their introduced range, and for the other species, the overlap between native and invaded ranges was reduced with respect to the univariate analyses.

Predicting the current fishable habitat distribution of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) and its shift in the future under climate change in the Southern Ocean

Global warming continues to exert unprecedented impacts on marine habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) are proven powerful in predicting habitat distribution for marine demersal species under climate change impacts. The Antarctic toothfish, Dissostichus mawsoni (Norman 1937), an ecologically and commercially significant species, is endemic to the Southern Ocean. Utilizing occurrence records and environmental data, we developed an ensemble model that integrates various modelling techniques. This model characterizes species-environment relationships and predicts current and future fishable habitats of D. mawsoni under four climate change scenarios. Ice thickness, depth and mean water temperature were the top three important factors in affecting the distribution of D. mawsoni. The ensemble prediction suggests an overall expansion of fishable habitats, potentially due to the limited occurrence records from fishery-dependent surveys. Future projections indicate varying degrees of fishable habitat loss in large areas of the Amery Ice Shelf's eastern and western portions. Suitable fishable habitats, including the spawning grounds in the seamounts around the northern Ross Sea and the coastal waters of the Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea, were persistent under present and future environmental conditions, highlighting the importance to protect these climate refugia from anthropogenic disturbance. Though data deficiency existed in this study, our predictions can provide valuable information for designing climate-adaptive development and conservation strategies in maintaining the sustainability of this species.

Decoding the spread of non-indigenous fishes in the Mediterranean Sea

The ocean is dynamically changing due to the influence of climate processes and human activities. The construction of the Suez Canal in the late nineteenth century opened the Pandora's box by facilitating the dispersal of Red Sea species in the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, we developed an open-source spatio-temporal numerical analysis framework to decodify the complex spread of Mediterranean non-indigenous fish species (NIS) that entered through the Suez Canal. We utilized 772 historical detection records of 130 NIS to disentangle their dynamic spread through space and time. The results indicated that species follow a north-westward trajectory with an average expansion time step of 2.5 years. Additionally, we estimated the overall time for a NIS to reach the Central Mediterranean Sea from the Suez Canal at approximately 22 years. Based on the analysis, more than half of the introduced fishes have been established in less than 10 years. Finally, we proceeded in the cross-validation of our results using actual spread patterns of invasive fishes of the Mediterranean Sea, resulting up to 90% of temporal and spatial agreement. The methodology and the findings presented herein may contribute to management initiatives in highly invaded regions around the globe.

Invasion genomics of lionfish in the Mediterranean Sea

The rate of biological invasions is steadily increasing, with major ecological and economic impacts accounting for billions of dollars in damage as a result. One spectacular example is the western Atlantic invasion by lionfishes. In the Mediterranean Sea, invasions from the Red Sea via the Suez Canal (termed Lessepsian invasions) comprise more than 100 fish species, including a recent invasion by lionfish. In light of the devastating effects of lionfish in the Caribbean Sea, understanding the dynamics of Mediterranean lionfish invasion is crucial. The Lessepsian lionfish invasion started in 2012, and rapidly spread to the central Mediterranean. Here, we used thousands of RAD seq genomic markers to study the population dynamics of this invasion. While we did not find a reduction in genetic diversity between source (Red Sea) and invasive (Mediterranean) populations (i.e., bottleneck effects), we found evidence of population structure within the invasive range in the Mediterranean Sea. We found that loci that are potentially under selection may play an important role in invasion success (in particular, genes involved in osmoregulation and fin spine sizes). Genomic approaches proved powerful in examining the ecological and evolutionary patterns of successful invaders and may be used as tools to understand and potentially mitigate future invasions.

Applying an ensemble of small models in predicting habitat suitability of invasive M. sallei along the southern coast of China

A false mussel Mytilopsis sallei has caused serious ecological and economic losses after invading in China. In this research, we first assessed the niche differentiation between its native range and invasive range in China and then predicted the habitat suitability along the southern coast of China under present and future climatic circumstances. Distance to shore and water depth were the first two important factors in affecting the distribution of M. sallei, followed by minimum chlorophyll concentration and salinity. The niche of M. sallei shows significant expansion and unfilling. The ensemble of small models can account for few occurrences and presents high predictive performance. A general reduction and northward movement of suitable areas were found in the southern coast of China in the future. This study furnished significant insights regarding the areas under invasive risks, and provided valuable information for preventing the further invasion of M. sallei in China.

Biology and ecology of the lionfish Pterois volitans/Pterois miles as invasive alien species: a review

The lionfish is an exotic invasive fish native to the Indo-Pacific, which is established in the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Lionfish can affect native fishes and invertebrates through direct predation or competition for food. The present review aims to analyze the most relevant characteristics of the biology and ecology of lionfish as an invasive alien species, with an emphasis on Cuba. We provide a current view of the well-known lionfish as a successful invasive fish, and we put in this context the information regarding lionfish in Cuban waters, enriching the background knowledge, and giving novel and relevant information. The compilation of numerous publications on the subject has allowed for a more complete analysis of essential aspects of this invader in the Cuban archipelago. The consulted literature records that the first report of lionfish in Cuba occurred in 2007; subsequently, sightings of lionfish were reported in numerous localities. In 2010, the lionfish was considered an invasive alien species, which currently is established in various habitats, at depths up to 188 m, throughout the Cuban archipelago (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass beds, submerged artificial structures). In addition, it has reached very high densities (12.42 ind./100 m2), which exceed those reported in the Indo-Pacific as well as in many locations in the Western Atlantic. It has been confirmed that the lionfish in Cuba also presents numerous characteristics that guarantee its success as an invader, among them: less quantity and diversity of parasites than other Atlantic fishes found in similar environments, a high number of gametes in the gonads, reproductive activity during all year and wide diet. The most important fish families for the lionfish diet in Cuba have been Pomacentridae, Gobiidae, Scaridae, Holocentridae, Mullidae, Labridae and Acanthuridae; and the most important crustacean orders are Decapoda, Mysida, Stomatopoda and Isopoda. In Cuba, as in the entire invaded region, numerous investigations have been directed to evaluate the impact of this invader on ecosystems, and although there is enough information, their results differ. Additional studies are required to assess the impact of lionfish as a predator after several years of invasion on a larger geographic scale in Cuba and other areas of the region. This knowledge will allow the development of more effective control strategies. Periodic lionfish culling have been carried out in Cuban MPAs as a control strategy, and some positive results have been observed, such as the average size reduction; however, further efforts are still required. Due to the importance of the study of lionfish as an invader, this review is a necessity as it provides, for the first time, a comprehensive analysis of lionfish information and results from Cuba, which is adequately contrasted with previous studies of other areas, particularly, from the Greater Caribbean.

Unwanted Guest Continues its Northern Journey in the Aegean Sea: Pterois miles (Bennett, 1828)

Pterois miles (Bennett, 1828), one of the most destructive marine invaders, was reported from the Mediterranean in 1991. It has invaded most parts of the Mediterranean from 2013, when it was reported for the second time, until today. On 7th October 2020, a single specimen of P. miles was collected by the bottom trawl from the Edremit Bay (Northern Aegean Sea). COI barcode region was used for the molecular identification of the specimen. DNA barcode data suggest that the specimen used in the present study is P. miles with a 99.69% probability. The current study is presented by providing the northernmost occurrence of the P. miles from the Aegean Sea with molecular confirmation.

More time for aliens? Performance shifts lead to increased activity time budgets propelling invasion success

In the Grinnellian niche concept, the realized niche and potential distribution is characterized as an interplay among the fundamental niche, biotic interactions and geographic accessibility. Climate is one of the main drivers for this concept and is essential to predict a taxon’s distribution. Mechanistic approaches can be useful tools, which use fitness-related aspects like locomotor performance and critical thermal limits to predict the potential distribution of an organism. These mechanistic approaches allow the inclusion key ecological processes like local adaptation and can account for thermal performance traits of different life-history stages. The African Clawed Frog, Xenopus laevis, is a highly invasive species occurring on five continents. The French population is of special interest due to an ongoing expansion for 40 years and a broad base of knowledge. We hypothesize that (1) the French population exhibits increased activity time in the invasive European range that could be devoted to fitness-relevant activity and (2) tadpoles may have less activity time available than adult frogs from the same range. We investigate how thermal performance traits translate into activity time budgets and how local adaptation and differences in the thermal responses of life-history stages may boost the European Xenopus invasion. We use a mechanistic approach based on generalized additive mixed models, where thermal performance curves were used to predict the hours of activity and to compare the potential activity time budgets for two life-history stages of native and invasive populations. Our results show that adult French frogs have more activity time available in Europe compared to South African frogs, which might be an advantage in searching for prey or escaping from predators. However, French tadpoles do not have more activity time in Europe compared to the native South African populations suggesting that tadpoles do not suffer the same strong selective pressure as adult frogs.

Uncertainty in Marine Species Distribution Modelling: Trying to Locate Invasion Hotspots for Pterois miles in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Biological invasions are considered among the largest threats to native biodiversity. The Mediterranean Sea, connecting the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic oceans, is characterized as a global marine invasion hotspot, due to a multitude of human pathways and vectors such as shipping, aquaculture, tourism, and the opening of the Suez Canal, which have led to the introduction of nearly 700 alien species into the Mediterranean Sea. Among the species introduced, the lionfish Pterois miles could be considered the fastest spreading invasive fish species of the last decade (2012–2022) and has been recorded in all countries of the eastern Mediterranean Sea, reaching as far north as Croatia. Here, we present a Bayesian additive regression tree modelling framework for an updated species distribution modelling invasion map under current and future climate conditions. All climate uncertainty sources have been used, as these are available from the Bio-Oracle, the unique marine predictors database. Important outputs of the current approach are the model’s inadequacy to accurately predict the most recent expansion of species in the Adriatic Sea, and the uncertainty estimation, that are high in areas with confirmed occurrence of individuals, in simulations that can help the decision makers and policy officers understand model limitations and take more informed actions.

Improving predictions of invasive fish ranges combining functional and ecological traits with environmental suitability under climate change scenarios

Biological invasions represent one of the main threats to marine biodiversity. From a conservation perspective, especially in the context of increasing sea warming, it is critical to examine the suitability potential of geographical areas for the arrival of Range-Expanding Introduced and Native Species (REINS), and hence anticipate the risk of such species to become invasive in their new distribution areas. Here, we developed an empirical index, based on functional and bio-ecological traits, that estimates the Invasive Potential (IP; i.e. the potential success in transport, introduction and population establishment) for a set of 13 fishes that are expanding their distributional range into the Mediterranean Sea, the most invaded sea in the world. The IP index showed significant correlation with the observed spreading of REINS. For the six species characterized by the highest IP, we calculated contemporary and future projections of their Environmental Suitability Index (ESI). By using an ensemble modelling approach, we estimated the geographical areas that are likely to be the most impacted by REINS spreading under climate change. Our results demonstrated the importance of functional traits related to reproduction for determining high invasion potential. For most species, we found high contemporary ESI values in the South-eastern Mediterranean Sea and low to intermediate contemporary ESI values in the Adriatic Sea and North-western Mediterranean sector. Moreover, we highlighted a major potential future expansion of high ESI values, and thus REINS IP, towards the northern Mediterranean, especially in the northern Adriatic Sea. This potential future northward expansion highlights the risk associated with climate-induced impacts on ecosystem conservation and fish stock management throughout the entire Mediterranean Sea.

Where are they now? Tracking the Mediterranean lionfish invasion via local dive centers

Invasive species are globally on the rise due to human-induced environmental change and are often a source of harm to their new ecosystems. Tracking the spread of invaders is crucial to better manage invasive species, and citizen science is often used to collect sighting data. However, this can be unreliable due to the general public's limited expertise for accurate identification and a lack of clear absence data. Here, we introduce a refined method of citizen science by tracking the spread of the invasive lionfish (Pterois miles) in the Mediterranean Sea using dive centers' expertise on local marine wildlife. We contacted 1131 dive centers on the Mediterranean coast via email and received 216 responses reporting whether or not lionfish were present in their area and, if present, the year they were first sighted. Currently, lionfish sightings are observed in the eastern half of the Mediterranean, though the front is continuing to move west with the furthest sighting as far as Corfu, Greece (19.939423°E, 39.428017°N). In 2020, lionfish also expanded their invasive range north on the Turkish Aegean coast to Karaburun (26.520657°E, 38.637033°N), showing that the invasion is ongoing. We found that the invasive range is now exceeding previous invasion models, highlighting the need for additional research on lionfish biology to inform management efforts. Continuous monitoring of invasive fronts based on dive center reports and a better understanding of what makes lionfish so invasive is crucial to creating effective management strategies and mitigating their negative impact on native ecosystems.

The Case of Lionfish (Pterois miles) in the Mediterranean Sea Demonstrates Limitations in EU Legislation to Address Marine Biological Invasions

The European Regulation (EU) 1143/2014 on Invasive Alien Species entered into force in 2015, with the aim to fulfill regional and international biodiversity goals in a concerted manner. To date, the Regulation listed 66 Invasive Alien Species (IAS) that are subject to legal controls. Only one of these is marine. A recent lionfish (Pterois miles) invasion has been closely monitored in the Mediterranean and a detailed risk assessment was made about the profound impacts that this invasive fish is likely to have on the fisheries and biodiversity of the region. In 2016–21, lionfish rapidly became dominant predators along Eastern Mediterranean coasts, yet the process for their inclusion on the EU IAS list has been lengthy and is ongoing. There is an urgent need to learn from this experience. Here, we recommend improvements to the Regulation 1143/2014 and the risk assessment process to protect marine ecosystems and secure the jobs of people that rely on coastal resources.

Protect the Natives to Combat the Aliens: Could Octopus vulgaris Cuvier, 1797 Be a Natural Agent for the Control of the Lionfish Invasion in the Mediterranean Sea?

Biological invasions constitute a major threat to native ecosystems and to global biodiversity [...]

Fishery reforms for the management of non-indigenous species

Marine ecosystems are undergoing major transformations due to the establishment and spread of Non-Indigenous Species (NIS). Some of these organisms have adverse effects, for example by reducing biodiversity and causing ecosystem shifts. Others have upsides, such as benefits to fisheries or replacing lost ecological functions and strengthening biogenic complexity. Stopping the spread of NIS is virtually impossible and so the societal challenge is how to limit the socioeconomic, health, and ecological risks, and sustainably exploit the benefits provided by these organisms. We propose a move away from the notion that NIS have only negative effects, and suggest a turn towards an Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management approach for NIS (EBFM-NIS) in the Mediterranean Sea, the world's most invaded marine region. A structured, iterative, and adaptive framework that considers the range of costs and benefits to ecosystems, ecosystem services, and fisheries is set out to determine whether NIS stocks should be managed using sustainable or unsustainable exploitation. We propose fishery reforms such as multiannual plans, annual catch limits, technical measures for sustainable exploitation, and legitimization of unlimited fishing of selected NIS and introduction of a radical new license for NIS fishing for unsustainable exploitation. Depending on local conditions, investment strategies can be included within the EBFM-NIS framework to protect/enhance natural assets to improve ecosystem resilience against NIS, as well as fishery assets to improve the performance of NIS fisheries. Examples of the former include the enhancement of Marine Protected Areas, harvesting of invasive NIS within MPAs, and protection of overfished predators and key species. Examples of the latter include market promotion and valorisation of NIS products, development of novel NIS products, and innovative/alternative NIS fishing such as fishery-related tourism ('pescatourism'). The application of the suggested EBFM-NIS would create jobs, protect and enhance ecosystem services, and help to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 14: Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas, and marine resources for sustainable development.