A novel minimal mathematical model of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid axis validated for individualized clinical applications

The ageing thyroid: implications for longevity and patient care

Thyroid hormones have vital roles in development, growth and energy metabolism. Within the past two decades, disturbances in thyroid hormone action have been implicated in ageing and the development of age-related diseases. This Review will consider results from biomedical studies that have identified the importance of precise temporospatial regulation of thyroid hormone action for local tissue maintenance and repair. Age-related disturbances in the maintenance of tissue homeostasis are thought to be important drivers of age-related disease. In most iodine-proficient human populations without thyroid disease, the mean, median and 97.5 centile for circulating concentrations of thyroid-stimulating hormone are progressively higher in adults over 80 years of age compared with middle-aged (50-59 years) and younger (20-29 years) adults. This trend has been shown to extend into advanced ages (over 100 years). Here, potential causes and consequences of the altered thyroid status observed in old age and its association with longevity will be discussed. In about 5-20% of adults at least 65 years of age, thyroid-stimulating hormone concentrations are elevated but circulating concentrations of thyroid hormone are within the population reference range, a condition referred to as subclinical hypothyroidism. Results from randomized clinical trials that have tested the clinical benefit of thyroid hormone replacement therapy in older adults with mild subclinical hypothyroidism will be discussed, as well as the implications of these findings for screening and treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism in older adults.

Towards translating in vitro measures of thyroid hormone system disruption to in vivo responses in the pregnant rat via a biologically based dose response (BBDR) model

Despite the number of in vitro assays that have been recently developed to identify chemicals that interfere with the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis (HPT), the translation of those in vitro results into in vivo responses (in vitro to in vivo extrapolation, IVIVE) has received limited attention from the modeling community. To help advance this field a steady state biologically based dose response (BBDR) model for the HPT axis was constructed for the pregnant rat on gestation day (GD) 20. The BBDR HPT axis model predicts plasma levels of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and the thyroid hormones, thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3). Thyroid hormones are important for normal growth and development of the fetus. Perchlorate, a potent inhibitor of thyroidal uptake of iodide by the sodium iodide symporter (NIS) protein, was used as a case study for the BBDR HPT axis model. The inhibitory blocking of the NIS by perchlorate was associated with dose-dependent steady state decreases in thyroid hormone production in the thyroid gland. The BBDR HPT axis model predictions for TSH, T3, and T4 plasma concentrations in pregnant Sprague Dawley (SD) rats were within 2-fold of observations for drinking water perchlorate exposures ranging from 10 to 30,000 μg/kg/d. In Long Evans (LE) pregnant rats, for both control and perchlorate drinking water exposures, ranging from 85 to 82,000 μg/kg/d, plasma thyroid hormone and TSH concentrations were predicted within 2 to 3.4- fold of observations. This BBDR HPT axis model provides a successful IVIVE template for thyroid hormone disruption in pregnant rats.

Fast Track Treatment of Hypothyroidism with Levothyroxine: Reaching Homeostasis within Four Weeks

With the current clinical method for the treatment of hypothyroidism the target for the optimum individual values for free thyroxine concentrations [FT4] and thyrotropine concentrations [TSH] of the specific patient are unknown. This situation leads to unnecessary long experimental medication administration that can take a period of sometimes one year. In this article a method will be described where hypothyroid patients are characterized with weekly measured FT4 and TSH concentrations during the first three weeks of synthetic thyroxine or levothyroxine (L-T4) treatment to predict their optimum [FT4] and belonging [TSH] endpoint for a euthyroid homeostatic state. The treatment with levothyroxine will start for all patients with a reference dose of 100 µg, which can be adjusted by the treating physician to a more safe and appropriate dose for the individual which is monitored with weekly thyroid function tests to observe the progress. After three weeks all characteristics of the patient can be inferred from the measured data. The final titration target together with the individual thyroxine half life can be calculated. With the known characteristics and the L-T4 titration target the clinician or treating physician has an instrument to reduce the experimental treatment burden for the patient from one year to a maximum of four weeks.

Refining personalized diagnosis, treatment and exploitation of hypothyroidism related to solid nonthyroid cancer

Hypothyroidism in the setting of cancer is a puzzling entity due to the dual role of the thyroid hormones (TH) in cancer – promoting versus inhibitory – and the complexity of the hypothyroidism itself. The present review provides a comprehensive overview of the personalized approach to hypothyroidism in patients with solid nonthyroid cancer, focusing on current challenges, unmet needs and future perspectives. Major electronic databases were searched from January 2011 until March 2022. The milestones of the refinement of such a personalized approach are prompt diagnosis, proper TH replacement and development of interventions and/or pharmaceutical agents to exploit hypothyroidism or, on the contrary, TH replacement as an anticancer strategy. Further elucidation of the dual role of TH in cancer – especially of the interference of TH signaling with the hallmarks of cancer – is anticipated to inform decision-making and optimize patient selection.

Minor perturbations of thyroid homeostasis and major cardiovascular endpoints—Physiological mechanisms and clinical evidence

It is well established that thyroid dysfunction is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The pleiotropic action of thyroid hormones strongly impacts the cardiovascular system and affects both the generation of the normal heart rhythm and arrhythmia. A meta-analysis of published evidence suggests a positive association of FT4 concentration with major adverse cardiovascular end points (MACE), but this association only partially extends to TSH. The risk for cardiovascular death is increased in both subclinical hypothyroidism and subclinical thyrotoxicosis. Several published studies found associations of TSH and FT4 concentrations, respectively, with major cardiovascular endpoints. Both reduced and elevated TSH concentrations predict the cardiovascular risk, and this association extends to TSH gradients within the reference range. Likewise, increased FT4 concentrations, but high-normal FT4 within its reference range as well, herald a poor outcome. These observations translate to a monotonic and sensitive effect of FT4 and a U-shaped relationship between TSH and cardiovascular risk. Up to now, the pathophysiological mechanism of this complex pattern of association is poorly understood. Integrating the available evidence suggests a dual etiology of elevated FT4 concentration, comprising both ensuing primary hypothyroidism and a raised set point of thyroid function, e. g. in the context of psychiatric disease, chronic stress and type 2 allostatic load. Addressing the association between thyroid homeostasis and cardiovascular diseases from a systems perspective could pave the way to new directions of research and a more personalized approach to the treatment of patients with cardiovascular risk.

Dynamics of thyroid diseases and thyroid-axis gland masses

Thyroid disorders are common and often require lifelong hormone replacement. Treating thyroid disorders involves a fascinating and troublesome delay, in which it takes many weeks for serum thyroid‐stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration to normalize after thyroid hormones return to normal. This delay challenges attempts to stabilize thyroid hormones in millions of patients. Despite its importance, the physiological mechanism for the delay is unclear. Here, we present data on hormone delays from Israeli medical records spanning 46 million life‐years and develop a mathematical model for dynamic compensation in the thyroid axis, which explains the delays. The delays are due to a feedback mechanism in which peripheral thyroid hormones and TSH control the growth of the thyroid and pituitary glands; enlarged or atrophied glands take many weeks to recover upon treatment due to the slow turnover of the tissues. The model explains why thyroid disorders such as Hashimoto's thyroiditis and Graves' disease have both subclinical and clinical states and explains the complex inverse relation between TSH and thyroid hormones. The present model may guide approaches to dynamically adjust the treatment of thyroid disorders.

Lifestyle is associated with thyroid function in subclinical hypothyroidism: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have focused on the association between lifestyle and subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH). The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between lifestyle and thyroid function in SCH.

METHODS

This study was a part of a community-based and cross-sectional study, the Epidemiological Survey of Thyroid Diseases in Fujian Province, China. A total of 159 participants with SCH (81 males and 78 females) and 159 euthyroid (87 males and 72 females) participants without any missing data were included in the analysis. General information and lifestyle information including sleep, exercise, diet and smoking habits of the participants was collected by questionnaire and Pittsburgh sleep quality index scale (PSQI) was collected. Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), thyroid globulin antibody (TgAb) and urine iodine concentration (UIC) were tested. Thyroid homeostasis parameter thyroid' s secretory capacity (SPINA-GT), Jostel's TSH index (TSHI), thyrotroph T4 sensitivity index (TTSI) were calculated. Logistic regression and multiple linear regression were performed to assess associations.

RESULTS

Compared with euthyroid subjects, patients with SCH were more likely to have poor overall sleep quality (15.1 vs.25.8 %, P = 0.018) and l less likely to stay up late on weekdays (54.7 vs. 23.9 % P < 0.001). In SCH group, exercise was the influencing factor of TSH (β= -0.224, P = 0.004), thyroid secretory capacity (β = 0.244, P = 0.006) and thyrotropin resistance (β = 0.206, P = 0.009). Iodine excess was the influencing factor of thyroid secretory capacity (β = 0.209, P = 0.001) and pituitary thyroid stimulating function (β = 0.167, P = 0.034). Smoking was the influencing factor of pituitary thyroid stimulating function (β = 0.161, P = 0.040). Staying up late on weekends was the influencing factor of thyroid secretory capacity (β = 0.151, P = 0.047). After adjusting for possible confounders, logistic regression showed that those with poor overall sleep quality assessed by PSQI and iodine excess had an increased risk of SCH (OR 2.159, 95 %CI 1.186-3.928, P = 0.012 and OR 2.119, 95 %CI 1.008-4.456, P = 0.048, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Lifestyle including sleep, smoking, diet and exercise was closely related to thyroid function especially thyroid homeostasis in SCH.

Profiling retrospective thyroid function data in complete thyroidectomy patients to investigate the HPT axis set point (PREDICT-IT)

BACKGROUND

The homeostatic euthyroid set point of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid axis of any given individual is unique and oscillates narrowly within substantially broader normal population ranges of circulating free thyroxine (FT4) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), otherwise termed 'thyroid function test (TFT)'. We developed a mathematical algorithm codenamed Thyroid-SPOT that effectively reconstructs the personalized set point in open-loop situations and evaluated its performance in a retrospective patient sample.

METHODS

We computed the set points of 101 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy for non-functioning thyroid disease using Thyroid-SPOT on each patient's own serial post-thyroidectomy TFT. Every predicted set point was compared against its respective healthy pre-operative euthyroid TFT per individual and their separation (i.e. predicted-observed TFT) quantified.

RESULTS

Bland-Altman analysis to measure the agreement between each pair of an individual's predicted and actual set points revealed a mean difference in FT4 and TSH of + 3.03 pmol/L (95% CI 2.64, 3.43) and - 0.03 mIU/L (95% CI - 0.25, 0.19), respectively. These differences are small compared to the width of the reference intervals. Thyroid-SPOT can predict the euthyroid set point remarkably well, especially for TSH with a 10-16-fold spread in magnitude between population normal limits.

CONCLUSION

Every individual's equilibrium euthyroid set point is unique. Thyroid-SPOT serves as an accurate, precise and reliable targeting system for optimal personalized restoration of euthyroidism. This algorithm can guide clinicians in L-thyroxine dose titrations to resolve persistent dysthyroid symptoms among challenging cases harbouring "normal TFT" within the laboratory ranges but differing significantly from their actual euthyroid set points.

Correlation between Thyroid Homeostasis and Obesity in Subclinical Hypothyroidism: Community-Based Cross-Sectional Research

OBJECTIVE

It remains unknown whether obesity has an effect on the pituitary-thyroid feedback control axis in subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH). We aimed to investigate the association of thyroid homeostasis with obesity in a SCH population.

METHODS

Our study consisted of a community-based and cross-sectional study from the Epidemiological Survey of Thyroid Diseases in Fujian Province, China. A total of 193 subjects with SCH (90 males and 103 females) without a history of treatment of thyroid disease, such as surgery, radiation, and thyroid hormone or antithyroid medication, were included in the present study. Indices of obesity, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-height ratio (WHtR) were measured.

RESULTS

Our results showed that the secretory capacity of the thyroid gland (SPINA-GT) and Jostel's thyrotropin index (TSHI) were negatively correlated with BMI, WC, and WHtR, whereas the reciprocal of the thyrotroph thyroid hormone resistance index (TTSI-1) was positively correlated with BMI (all p < 0.05). After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, iodine status, and glucolipid metabolism, the associations between TSHI, TTSI (reciprocal transformation), and BMI still persisted (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that low levels of thyroid homeostasis indexes may be associated with overall obesity in SCH, rather than central adiposity.

The Genetic Basis of Thyroid Function: Novel Findings and New Approaches

CONTEXT

Genetic factors are major determinants of thyroid function. Over the last two decades, multiple genetic variants have been associated with variations in normal range thyroid function tests. Most recently, a large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) doubled the number of known variants associated with normal range thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) levels.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

This review summarizes the results of genetic association studies on normal range thyroid function and explores how these genetic variants can be used in future studies to improve our understanding of thyroid hormone regulation and disease.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Serum TSH and FT4 levels are determined by multiple genetic variants on virtually all levels of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis. Functional follow-up studies on top of GWAS hits has the potential to discover new key players in thyroid hormone regulation, as exemplified by the identification of the thyroid hormone transporter SLC17A4 and the metabolizing enzyme AADAT. Translational studies may use these genetic variants to investigate causal associations between thyroid function and various outcomes in Mendelian Randomization (MR) studies, to identify individuals with an increased risk of thyroid dysfunction, and to predict the individual HPT axis setpoint.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent genetic studies have greatly improved our understanding of the genetic basis of thyroid function, and have revealed novel pathways involved in its regulation. In addition, these findings have paved the way for various lines of research that can improve our understanding of thyroid hormone regulation and thyroid diseases, as well as the potential use of these markers in future clinical practice.

Decreased deiodinase activity after glucose load could lead to atherosclerosis in euthyroid women with polycystic ovary syndrome

OBJECTIVE

Glucose and lipid disturbances, as well as higher tendency to atherosclerosis, are observed in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Thyroid hormones action has long been recognized as an important determinant of glucose and lipid homeostasis. Some studies suggest that even in euthyroid subjects, thyroid function may affect atherosclerosis risk factors. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationships between thyroid hormonal status and glucose and lipid profile before and after oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in PCOS women in comparison to the control group.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study group included 98 women-60 women with PCOS and 38 women matched for age and BMI as a control group. OGTT with estimation of plasma glucose and lipids, as well as serum insulin and thyroid hormones (TH) concentrations was performed. Activity of peripheral deiodinases at baseline (SPINA-GD1) and at the 120 min of OGTT (SPINA-GD2) was calculated according to the formula by Dietrich et al. as a measure of T4-T3 conversion efficiency. Delta GD was estimated as SPINA-GD1-SPINA-GD2, and delta fT3 was calculated as a difference between fT3 before and after OGTT.

RESULTS

We did not find differences in TH, SPINA-GDs, and plasma lipid concentrations between PCOS and control group before and after OGTT. Glucose load resulted in a decrease of level TSH, TC, TG, HDL-C, and LDL-C concentrations in women with PCOS, as well as in the control group (all p < 0.05). We found that GD (p = 0.01) and serum fT3 concentration (p = 0.0008) decreased during glucose load only in the PCOS group. We observed a positive relationship between delta fT3 and plasma TG concentration (r = 0.36, p = 0.004), delta GD and plasma TG concentration after glucose load (r = 0.34, p = 0.007), only in the PCOS group. We also found negative relationship between SPINA-GD2 and plasma TC concentration (r = -0.29, p = 0.02) after glucose load and positive relationship between delta GD and insulin at the 60 min of OGTT (r = 0.29, p = 0.02), only in the PCOS women.

CONCLUSIONS

These data showed insufficient conversion of fT4 to fT3, as well as a relationship of SPINA-GDs with insulin, TC and TG in PCOS women after glucose load. It may suggest that disturbances in deiodinase activity after glucose load might promote atherosclerosis in PCOS women.

Hyperthyroidism in the personalized medicine era: the rise of mathematical optimization

Thyroid over-activity or hyperthyroidism constitutes a significant morbidity afflicting the world. The current medical practice of dose titration of anti-thyroid drug (ATD) treatment for hyperthyroidism is relatively archaic, being based on arbitrary and time-consuming trending of thyroid function that requires multiple clinic monitoring visits before an optimal dose is found. This prompts a re-examination into more deterministic and efficient treatment approaches in the present personalized medicine era. Our research project seeks to develop a personalized medicine model that facilitates optimal drug dosing via the titration regimen. We analysed 49 patients' data consisting of drug dosage, time period and serum free thyroxine (FT4). Ordinary differential equation modelling was applied to describe the dynamic behaviour of FT4 concentration. With each patient's data, an optimization model was developed to determine parameters of synthesis rate, decay rate and IC₅₀. We derived the closed-form time- and dose-dependent solution which allowed explicit estimates of personalized predicted FT4. Our equation system involving time, drug dosage and FT4 can be solved for any variable provided the values of the other two are known. Compared against actual FT4 data within a tolerance, we demonstrated the feasibility of predicting the FT4 subsequent to any prescribed dose of ATD with favourable accuracy using the initial three to five patient-visits' data respectively. This proposed mathematical model may assist clinicians in rapid determination of optimal ATD doses within allowable prescription limits to achieve any desired FT4 within a specified treatment period to accelerate the attainment of euthyroid targets.

Reference intervals in the diagnosis of thyroid dysfunction: treating patients not numbers

Although assigning a diagnosis of thyroid dysfunction appears quite simple, this is often not the case. Issues that make it unclear whether thyroid function is normal include transient changes in thyroid parameters, inter-individual and intra-individual differences in thyroid parameters, age-related differences, and ethnic variations. In addition, a statistically calculated distribution of thyroid analytes does not necessarily coincide with intervals or cutoffs that have predictive value for beneficial or adverse health outcomes. Based on current clincial trial data, it is unclear which individuals with mild thyroid-stimulating hormone elevations will benefit from levothyroxine treatment. For example, only a small number of patients with thyroid-stimulating hormone values of more than 10 mIU/L have been studied in a randomised manner. Even if therapy is initiated for abnormal thyroid function, not all treated individuals are maintained at the desired treatment target, and therefore might still be at risk. The consequence of this is that each patient's thyroid function needs to be assessed on an individual basis with the entire clinical picture in mind. Monitoring also needs to be vigilant, and the targets for treatment reassessed continually.

Time for a reassessment of the treatment of hypothyroidism

BACKGROUND

In the treatment for hypothyroidism, a historically symptom-orientated approach has given way to reliance on a single biochemical parameter, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH).

MAIN BODY

The historical developments and motivation leading to that decision and its potential implications are explored from pathophysiological, clinical and statistical viewpoints. An increasing frequency of hypothyroid-like complaints is noted in patients in the wake of this directional shift, together with relaxation of treatment targets. Recent prospective and retrospective studies suggested a changing pattern in patient complaints associated with recent guideline-led low-dose policies. A resulting dramatic rise has ensued in patients, expressing in various ways dissatisfaction with the standard treatment. Contributing factors may include raised problem awareness, overlap of thyroid-related complaints with numerous non-specific symptoms, and apparent deficiencies in the diagnostic process itself. Assuming that maintaining TSH anywhere within its broad reference limits may achieve a satisfactory outcome is challenged. The interrelationship between TSH, free thyroxine (FT4) and free triiodothyronine (FT3) is patient specific and highly individual. Population-based statistical analysis is therefore subject to amalgamation problems (Simpson's paradox, collider stratification bias). This invalidates group-averaged and range-bound approaches, rather demanding a subject-related statistical approach. Randomised clinical trial (RCT) outcomes may be equally distorted by intra-class clustering. Analytical distinction between an averaged versus typical outcome becomes clinically relevant, because doctors and patients are more interested in the latter. It follows that population-based diagnostic cut-offs for TSH may not be an appropriate treatment target. Studies relating TSH and thyroid hormone concentrations to adverse effects such as osteoporosis and atrial fibrillation invite similar caveats, as measuring TSH within the euthyroid range cannot substitute for FT4 and FT3 concentrations in the risk assessment. Direct markers of thyroid tissue effects and thyroid-specific quality of life instruments are required, but need methodological improvement.

CONCLUSION

It appears that we are witnessing a consequential historic shift in the treatment of thyroid disease, driven by over-reliance on a single laboratory parameter TSH. The focus on biochemistry rather than patient symptom relief should be re-assessed. A joint consideration together with a more personalized approach may be required to address the recent surge in patient complaint rates.

A data driven diagnosis tool for thyroid hormones

Thyroid hormones play a significant role in human health. Understanding their dynamics is crucial to diagnoses and maintaining the well-being of the thyroid. In this work we propose a data driven algorithm to detect a fixed point and a limit cycle in real data for thyroid hormones. This algorithm finds the maximum frequency point (fixed point) and extracts a smooth ellipse (limit cycle) from the data. These features characterize various data sets and provide interesting insights to differentiate healthy from malfunctioning thyroid data. This scheme which is backed by a solid dynamical analysis determines the size, orientation and location of a detected limit cycle and provides information about the behavior of the thyroid in its various normal and abnormal conditions. This algorithm does not require tuning any ad-hoc parameters. This approach could lead to an effective way of implementing a personal treatment strategy, and a control system to improve the performance of the thyroid.

Population correlations do not support the existence of set points for blood levels of calcium or glucose - a new model for homeostasis

The prevailing teaching regarding homeostasis, and in particular endocrine homeostasis, includes the fundamental concept of a "set point," which represents a target or optimum level defended by physiological control mechanisms. Analogies for the description and teaching of this concept have included thermostats and cruise controls. We previously demonstrated that such a set-point model of regulation implies that in population data of parameter set point/controlling hormone levels, correlations between the parameter and its controlling hormone must be in the direction of the response of the parameter to its controlling hormone, and that in thyroid homeostasis this relationship is not observed. In this work we similarly examined population correlations, extracted from the literature, for the parameters glucose and calcium, and their controlling hormones. We found 10 correlations. Most were highly significant (P < 0.01). All were in the direction of the response of the controlling hormone to the parameter. Therefore, none were consistent with the pattern implied by a set-point model of regulation. Instead all were consistent with an "equilibrium point" model of regulation, whereby ambient levels have no particular connotation to the individual, and result passively from the interplay of physiological processes. We conclude that glucose and calcium regulation, like thyroid regulation, are not centered on set points. This may reflect a general property of homeostasis. We provide an alternative mechanistic analogy, without a set point, for the heuristic description and teaching, of homeostasis.

Advances in applied homeostatic modelling of the relationship between thyrotropin and free thyroxine

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between pituitary TSH and thyroid hormones is central to our understanding of thyroid physiology and thyroid function testing. Here, we generated distribution patterns by using validated tools of thyroid modelling.

METHODS

We simulated patterns of individual set points under various conditions, based on a homeostatic model of thyroid feedback control. These were compared with observed data points derived from clinical trials.

RESULTS

A random mix of individual set points was reconstructed by simulative modelling with defined structural parameters. The pattern displayed by the cluster of hypothetical points resembled that observed in a natural control group. Moderate variation of the TSH-FT4 gradient over the functional range introduced further flexibility, implementing a scenario of adaptive set points. Such a scenario may be a realistic possibility for instance in treatment where relationships and equilibria between thyroid parameters are altered by various influences such as LT4 dose and conversion efficiency.

CONCLUSIONS

We validated a physiologically based homeostatic model that permits simulative reconstruction of individual set points. This produced a pattern resembling the observed data under various conditions. Applied modelling, although still experimental at this stage, shows a potential to aid our physiological understanding of the interplay between TSH and thyroid hormones. It should eventually benefit personalised clinical decision making.

Thyroid Allostasis-Adaptive Responses of Thyrotropic Feedback Control to Conditions of Strain, Stress, and Developmental Programming

The hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid feedback control is a dynamic, adaptive system. In situations of illness and deprivation of energy representing type 1 allostasis, the stress response operates to alter both its set point and peripheral transfer parameters. In contrast, type 2 allostatic load, typically effective in psychosocial stress, pregnancy, metabolic syndrome, and adaptation to cold, produces a nearly opposite phenotype of predictive plasticity. The non-thyroidal illness syndrome (NTIS) or thyroid allostasis in critical illness, tumors, uremia, and starvation (TACITUS), commonly observed in hospitalized patients, displays a historically well-studied pattern of allostatic thyroid response. This is characterized by decreased total and free thyroid hormone concentrations and varying levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) ranging from decreased (in severe cases) to normal or even elevated (mainly in the recovery phase) TSH concentrations. An acute versus chronic stage (wasting syndrome) of TACITUS can be discerned. The two types differ in molecular mechanisms and prognosis. The acute adaptation of thyroid hormone metabolism to critical illness may prove beneficial to the organism, whereas the far more complex molecular alterations associated with chronic illness frequently lead to allostatic overload. The latter is associated with poor outcome, independently of the underlying disease. Adaptive responses of thyroid homeostasis extend to alterations in thyroid hormone concentrations during fetal life, periods of weight gain or loss, thermoregulation, physical exercise, and psychiatric diseases. The various forms of thyroid allostasis pose serious problems in differential diagnosis of thyroid disease. This review article provides an overview of physiological mechanisms as well as major diagnostic and therapeutic implications of thyroid allostasis under a variety of developmental and straining conditions.

Relational Stability in the Expression of Normality, Variation, and Control of Thyroid Function

Thyroid hormone concentrations only become sufficient to maintain a euthyroid state through appropriate stimulation by pituitary thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH). In such a dynamic system under constant high pressure, guarding against overstimulation becomes vital. Therefore, several defensive mechanisms protect against accidental overstimulation, such as plasma protein binding, conversion of T4 into the more active T3, active transmembrane transport, counter-regulatory activities of reverse T3 and thyronamines, and negative hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid feedback control of TSH. TSH has gained a dominant but misguided role in interpreting thyroid function testing in assuming that its exceptional sensitivity thereby translates into superior diagnostic performance. However, TSH-dependent thyroid disease classification is heavily influenced by statistical analytic techniques such as uni- or multivariate-defined normality. This demands a separation of its conjoint roles as a sensitive screening test and accurate diagnostic tool. Homeostatic equilibria (set points) in healthy subjects are less variable and do not follow a pattern of random variation, rather indicating signs of early and progressive homeostatic control across the euthyroid range. In the event of imminent thyroid failure with a reduced FT4 output per unit TSH, conversion efficiency increases in order to maintain FT3 stability. In such situations, T3 stability takes priority over set point maintenance. This suggests a concept of relational stability. These findings have important implications for both TSH reference limits and treatment targets for patients on levothyroxine. The use of archival markers is proposed to facilitate the homeostatic interpretation of all parameters.

Derivation of a multivariate reference range for pituitary thyrotropin and thyroid hormones: diagnostic efficiency compared with conventional single-reference method

: Although pituitary thyrotropin (TSH) and thyroid hormones are physiologically interrelated, interpretation of measurements is conventionally done separately. Classification of subclinical thyroid dysfunction depends by definition solely on an abnormal TSH. This study examines a composite multivariate approach to disease classification.

METHODS

Bivariate and trivariate reference limits were derived from a thyroid-healthy control group (n=271) and applied to a clinically diverse sample (n=820) from a prospective study, comparing their diagnostic efficiency with the conventional method.

RESULTS

The following 95% reference limits were derived from the control group: (i) separate reference intervals for TSH, free thyroxine (FT4) and free triiodothyronine (FT3); (ii) bivariate composite reference limits for the logarithmically transformed TSH and FT4, and (iii) trivariate composite reference limits including all three parameters. A multivariate approach converts the "rectangular" or "cuboid" graphical representations of the independent parameters into an ellipse or ellipsoid. When applying these reference limits to the clinical sample, thyroid dysfunctions were classified differently, compared with the separate method, in 6.3 or 12% of all cases by the bivariate or trivariate method respectively. Of the established dysfunctions according to the separate intervals, 26% were reclassified to "euthyroid" by using the bivariate limit. Discrepancies from the laboratory-evaluated reference range were less pronounced.

CONCLUSIONS

Frequent divergencies between composite multivariate reference limits and a combination of separate univariate reference intervals suggest that statistical analytic techniques may heavily influence thyroid disease classification. This challenges the validity of the conjoined roles of TSH currently employed as both a sensitive screening test and a reliable classification tool for thyroid disease.

The Relationship between Population T4/TSH Set Point Data and T4/TSH Physiology

Context. Population studies of the distribution of T4/TSH set points suggest a more complex inverse relationship between T4 and TSH than that suggested by physiological studies. The reasons for the similarities and differences between the curves describing these relationships are unresolved. Methods. We subjected the curve, derived from empiric data, describing the TSH suppression response to T4, and the more mathematically derived curve describing the T4 response to TSH, to the different possible models of population variation. The implied consequences of these in terms of generating a population distribution of T4/TSH equilibrium points (a “population curve”) were generated and compared to the empiric population curve. The physiological responses to primary hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism were incorporated into the analysis. Conclusions. Though the population curve shows a similarly inverse relationship, it is describing a different relationship than the curve describing the suppression of TSH by T4. The population curve is consistent with the physiological studies of the TSH response to T4 and implies a greater interindividual variation in the positive thyroid T4 response to TSH than in the central inhibitory TSH response to T4. The population curve in the dysthyroid states is consistent with known physiological responses to these states.

Calculated Parameters of Thyroid Homeostasis: Emerging Tools for Differential Diagnosis and Clinical Research

Although technical problems of thyroid testing have largely been resolved by modern assay technology, biological variation remains a challenge. This applies to subclinical thyroid disease, non-thyroidal illness syndrome, and those 10% of hypothyroid patients, who report impaired quality of life, despite normal thyrotropin (TSH) concentrations under levothyroxine (L-T4) replacement. Among multiple explanations for this condition, inadequate treatment dosage and monotherapy with L-T4 in subjects with impaired deiodination have received major attention. Translation to clinical practice is difficult, however, since univariate reference ranges for TSH and thyroid hormones fail to deliver robust decision algorithms for therapeutic interventions in patients with more subtle thyroid dysfunctions. Advances in mathematical and simulative modeling of pituitary-thyroid feedback control have improved our understanding of physiological mechanisms governing the homeostatic behavior. From multiple cybernetic models developed since 1956, four examples have also been translated to applications in medical decision-making and clinical trials. Structure parameters representing fundamental properties of the processing structure include the calculated secretory capacity of the thyroid gland (SPINA-GT), sum activity of peripheral deiodinases (SPINA-GD) and Jostel's TSH index for assessment of thyrotropic pituitary function, supplemented by a recently published algorithm for reconstructing the personal set point of thyroid homeostasis. In addition, a family of integrated models (University of California-Los Angeles platform) provides advanced methods for bioequivalence studies. This perspective article delivers an overview of current clinical research on the basis of mathematical thyroid models. In addition to a summary of large clinical trials, it provides previously unpublished results of validation studies based on simulation and clinical samples.

A Review of the Phenomenon of Hysteresis in the Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Thyroid Axis

The existence of a phase of prolonged suppression of TSH despite normalization of serum thyroid hormones over a variable period of time during the recovery of thyrotoxicosis has been documented in literature. Conversely, a temporary elevation of TSH despite attainment of euthyroid levels of serum thyroid hormones following extreme hypothyroidism has also been observed. This rate-independent lag time in TSH recovery is an evidence of a "persistent memory" of the history of dysthyroid states the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis has encountered after the thyroid hormone perturbations have faded out, a phenomenon termed "hysteresis." Notwithstanding its perplexing nature, hysteresis impacts upon the interpretation of thyroid function tests with sufficient regularity that clinicians risk misdiagnosing and implementing erroneous treatment out of ignorance of this aspect of thyrotropic biology. Mathematical modeling of this phenomenon is complicated but may allow the euthyroid set point to be predicted from thyroid function data exhibiting strong hysteresis effects. Such model predictions are potentially useful for clinical management. Although the molecular mechanisms mediating hysteresis remain elusive, epigenetics, such as histone modifications, are probably involved. However, attempts to reverse the process to hasten the resolution of the hysteretic process may not necessarily translate into improved physiology or optimal health benefits. This is not unexpected from teleological considerations, since hysteresis probably represents an adaptive endocrinological response with survival advantages evolutionarily conserved among vertebrates with a HPT system.

Reference range for thyrotropin. Post hoc assessment

Setting the reference range for thyrotropin (TSH) remains a matter of ongoing controversy.

PATIENTS, METHODS

We used an indirect method to determine the TSH reference range post hoc in a large sample. A total of 399 well characterised subjects showing no evidence of thyroid dysfunction were selected for definition of the TSH reference limits according to the method of Katayev et al.. To this end, the cumulative frequency was plotted against the individual logarithmic TSH values. Reference limits were calculated by extrapolating the middle linear part of the regression line to obtain the cut-offs for the 95% confidence interval. We also examined biological variation in a sample of 65 subjects with repeat measurements to establish reference change values (RCVs).

RESULTS

Based on these, the reference interval obtained by the novel technique was in close agreement with the conventionally established limits, but differed significantly from earlier recommendations.

DISCUSSION

Following unverified recommendations could result in a portion of patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunctions being missed, an important consideration in a setting with a high prevalence of thyroid autonomy.

CONCLUSION

Indirect post hoc verification of reference intervals from a large retrospective sample is a modern approach that gives plausible results. The method seems particularly useful to assess the adequacy and performance of reference limits reported or established by others in a particular setting. The present data should encourage re-evaluation of reference systems on a broader scale.

Homeostatic Control of the Thyroid-Pituitary Axis: Perspectives for Diagnosis and Treatment

The long-held concept of a proportional negative feedback control between the thyroid and pituitary glands requires reconsideration in the light of more recent studies. Homeostatic equilibria depend on dynamic inter-relationships between thyroid hormones and pituitary thyrotropin (TSH). They display a high degree of individuality, thyroid-state-related hierarchy, and adaptive conditionality. Molecular mechanisms involve multiple feedback loops on several levels of organization, different time scales, and varying conditions of their optimum operation, including a proposed feedforward motif. This supports the concept of a dampened response and multistep regulation, making the interactions between TSH, FT4, and FT3 situational and mathematically more complex. As a homeostatically integrated parameter, TSH becomes neither normatively fixed nor a precise marker of euthyroidism. This is exemplified by the therapeutic situation with l-thyroxine (l-T4) where TSH levels defined for optimum health may not apply equivalently during treatment. In particular, an FT3-FT4 dissociation, discernible FT3-TSH disjoint, and conversion inefficiency have been recognized in l-T4-treated athyreotic patients. In addition to regulating T4 production, TSH appears to play an essential role in maintaining T3 homeostasis by directly controlling deiodinase activity. While still allowing for tissue-specific variation, this questions the currently assumed independence of the local T3 supply. Rather it integrates peripheral and central elements into an overarching control system. On l-T4 treatment, altered equilibria have been shown to give rise to lower circulating FT3 concentrations in the presence of normal serum TSH. While data on T3 in tissues are largely lacking in humans, rodent models suggest that the disequilibria may reflect widespread T3 deficiencies at the tissue level in various organs. As a consequence, the use of TSH, valuable though it is in many situations, should be scaled back to a supporting role that is more representative of its conditional interplay with peripheral thyroid hormones. This reopens the debate on the measurement of free thyroid hormones and encourages the identification of suitable biomarkers. Homeostatic principles conjoin all thyroid parameters into an adaptive context, demanding a more flexible interpretation in the accurate diagnosis and treatment of thyroid dysfunction.

The homeostatic set point of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid axis--maximum curvature theory for personalized euthyroid targets

BACKGROUND

Despite rendering serum free thyroxine (FT4) and thyrotropin (TSH) within the normal population ranges broadly defined as euthyroidism, many patients being treated for hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism persistently experience subnormal well-being discordant from their pre-disease healthy euthyroid state. This suggests that intra-individual physiological optimal ranges are narrower than laboratory-quoted normal ranges and implies the existence of a homeostatic set point encoded in the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis that is unique to every individual.

METHODS

We have previously shown that the dose-response characteristic of the hypothalamic-pituitary (HP) unit to circulating thyroid hormone levels follows a negative exponential curve. This led to the discovery that the normal reference intervals of TSH and FT4 fall within the 'knee' region of this curve where the maximum curvature of the exponential HP characteristic occurs. Based on this observation, we develop the theoretical framework localizing the position of euthyroid homeostasis over the point of maximum curvature of the HP characteristic.

RESULTS

The euthyroid set points of patients with primary hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism can be readily derived from their calculated HP curve parameters using the parsimonious mathematical model above. It can be shown that every individual has a euthyroid set point that is unique and often different from other individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

In this treatise, we provide evidence supporting a set point-based approach in tailoring euthyroid targets. Rendering FT4 and TSH within the laboratory normal ranges can be clinically suboptimal if these hormone levels are distant from the individualized euthyroid homeostatic set point. This mathematical technique permits the euthyroid set point to be realistically computed using an algorithm readily implementable for computer-aided calculations to facilitate precise targeted dosing of patients in this modern era of personalized medicine.

Hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid feedback control: implications of mathematical modeling and consequences for thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) reference ranges

The components of thyrotropic feedback control are well established in mainstream physiology and endocrinology, but their relation to the whole system's integrated behavior remains only partly understood. Most modeling research seeks to derive a generalized model for universal application across all individuals. We show how parameterizable models, based on the principles of control theory, tailored to the individual, can fill these gaps. We develop a system network describing the closed-loop behavior of the hypothalamus-pituitary (HP)-thyroid interaction and the set point targeted by the control system at equilibrium. The stability of this system is defined by using loop gain conditions. Defined points of homeostasis of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) feedback loop found at the intersections of the HP and thyroid transfer functions at the boundaries of normal reference ranges were evaluated by loop gain calculations. At equilibrium, the feedback control approaches a point defined in both dimensions by a [TSH]-[FT4] coordinate for which the loop gain is greater than unity. This model describes the emergence of homeostasis of the HPT axis from characteristic curves of HP and thyroid, thus supporting the validity of the translation between physiological knowledge and clinical reference ranges.