Impact of disposing stray dogs on risk assessment and control of Echinococcosis in Inner Mongolia

Epidemiological update of cystic echinococcosis in livestock and assessment of practices related to its control in the Mediterranean area

Cystic echinococcosis (CE), caused by the tapeworm Echinococcus granulosus, is a zoonotic parasitic disease that still represents a serious threat to human and animal health worldwide. The Mediterranean basin is recognized as one of the major hotspots of CE due to several factors, including the presence of diverse intermediate host species as well as socio-economic and cultural conditions of local communities. This study aims to take a closer look at epidemiological data on CE in the Mediterranean area and assess the knowledge attitudes and practices of shepherds towards this disease in four countries (Algeria, Greece, Italy and Tunisia), highly endemic for CE, with the final goal of identifying highly endemic risk areas and practices in use which might potentially allow the persistence of E. granulosus infection in these areas. To update the epidemiological scenario of CE in Mediterranean areas, a comprehensive review of peer-reviewed literature on CE prevalence data published during the 2017-2023 period was carried out and, through a geographical information system (GIS), a map displaying the current CE distribution in the Mediterranean area was generated. In addition, a questionnaire survey was conducted through in-depth interviews of the farmers to collect information on their management system as well as knowledge attitudes and practices towards CE. From the farmer-participatory survey some risky practices emerged including the non-regular deworming of dogs or the use of ineffective drugs or dosing, as well as the provision of uncooked animal viscera to dogs. Finally, lower levels of knowledge and awareness of the disease was observed among farmers from North Africa compared with those of European countries. In conclusion, the results obtained highlight that CE is still a very serious problem in Mediterranean areas and increased efforts are needed to promote awareness among farmers and to turn research results into policy in order to reduce the spread of this disease, according to the One Health perspective.

An innovative strategy for deworming dogs in Mediterranean areas highly endemic for cystic echinococcosis

BACKGROUND

Cystic echinococcosis (CE), caused by the larval stage of Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato, is a zoonotic parasitic disease of economic and public health importance worldwide, especially in the Mediterranean area. Canids are the main definitive hosts of the adult cestode contaminating the environment with parasite eggs released with feces. In rural and peri-urban areas, the risk of transmission to livestock as well as humans is high because of the free-roaming behavior of owned/not owned dogs. Collecting data on animal movements and behavior using GPS dataloggers could be a milestone to contain the spread of this parasitosis. Thus, this study aims to develop a comprehensive control strategy, focused on deworming a dog population in a pilot area of southern Italy (Campania region) highly endemic for CE.

METHODS

Accordingly, five sheep farms, tested to be positive for CE, were selected. In each sheep farm, all shepherd dogs present were treated every 2 months with praziquantel. Furthermore, 15 GPS dataloggers were applied to sheep and dogs, and their movements were tracked for 1 month; the distances that they traveled and their respective home ranges were determined using minimum convex polygon (MCP) analysis with a convex hull geometry as output.

RESULTS

The results showed that the mean daily walking distances traveled by sheep and dogs did not significantly differ. Over 90% of the point locations collected by GPS fell within 1500 mt of the farm, and the longest distances were traveled between 10:00 and 17:00. In all the sheep farms monitored, the area traversed by the animals during their daily activities showed an extension of < 250 hectares. Based on the home range of the animals, the area with the highest risk of access from canids (minimum safe convex polygon) was estimated around the centroid of each farm, and a potential scheme for the delivery of praziquantel-laced baits for the treatment of not owned dogs gravitating around the grazing area was designed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study documents the usefulness of geospatial technology in supporting parasite control strategies to reduce disease transmission.

Modeling and analysis of the transmission dynamics of cystic echinococcosis: Effects of increasing the number of sheep

A transmission dynamics model with the logistic growth of cystic echinococcus in sheep was formulated and analyzed. The basic reproduction number was derived and the results showed that the global dynamical behaviors were determined by its value. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the value of the basic reproduction number is less than one; otherwise, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and it is globally asymptotically stable. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number were also performed to screen the important factors that influence the spread of cystic echinococcosis. Contour plots of the basic reproduction number versus these important factors are presented, too. The results showed that the higher the deworming rate of dogs, the lower the prevalence of echinococcosis in sheep and dogs. Similarly, the higher the slaughter rate of sheep, the lower the prevalence of echinococcosis in sheep and dogs. It also showed that the spread of echinococcosis has a close relationship with the maximum environmental capacity of sheep, and that they have a remarkable negative correlation. This reminds us that the risk of cystic echinococcosis may be underestimated if we ignore the increasing number of sheep in reality.

Stability Analysis and Optimal Control Strategies of an Echinococcosis Transmission Model

This paper presents a deterministic compartmental model for echinococcosis transmission dynamics. The basic reproduction number of the model determines the existence and stability of the disease-free and disease-endemic equilibrium points. We further formulate the optimal control problem and obtain the necessary conditions to minimize the number of infected individuals and the associated costs. Numerical simulations show that optimal control strategies can significantly reduce the number of infected individuals to lower levels. Environmental disinfection may be essential for the elimination of infections. The results of this study will be beneficial for the prevention and control of echinococcosis in the Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and other areas of China.

THE EFFECT OF STOCHASTIC VARIABILITY ON TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF ECHINOCOCCOSIS

Echinococcosis, one of the most serious zoonotic diseases, has a severe impact on the human health and economic development. This paper mainly focuses on the effect of stochastic variability on transmission dynamics of echinococcosis. A stochastic model describing the transmission of echinococcus granulosus in dog-livestock-human is proposed. By using the Itô formula, strong law of large numbers for martingale and the inequality analysis, the criteria on the extinction with probability one for the disease are obtained. In addition, by constructing an appropriate stochastic Lyapunov function, the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution is established. Furthermore, numerical simulations have been performed to not only support our analytical results but also display that noise intensities would have significant impact on the speed of the extinction for the echinococcosis disease, and as well as the shape for the probability density curve of the stationary distribution of the solution for this model.

Data-driven dynamical modelling of the transmission of African swine fever in a few places in China

Since the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Shengyang, it has continued spreading in China. In the early stage of the epidemic, multi-point and concentrated outbreaks were mainly in the swill feeding areas. In this paper, we developed compartmental models to investigate the transmission of ASF in several raising units including Guquan, Jinba and Liancheng. Using the data collected from these three infected premises, we calibrated the models to estimate that the average incubation period was between 8 and 11 days, the onset period was about 2-3 days and the basic reproductive number was about 4.83-11.90. We also estimated the infection on the day before culling to be 45.24% (Guquan), 89.20% (Jinba) and 16.35% (Liancheng), respectively. The infection rate of Guquan could reach about 74.8% if culling were postponed by 2 days. We found that the infection was significantly higher than the morbidities (22.11% (Guquan), 49.35% (Jinba) and 12.94% (Liancheng)) calculated by actual statistical data. Besides, we simulated and compared the control effect of stopping transport, disinfecting, stopping swill and culling. Our findings suggest that any single measure was not enough to prevent the spread of ASF on a regional level but the combined measures is the key. Under the current situation, fully culling was recognized as most effective in controlling the epidemic, despite the culling of uninfected pigs.

Meta-analysis of the prevalence of Echinococcus in dogs in China from 2010 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Echinococcosis (canine Echinococcus disease) is a neglected tropical disease that causes serious public harm. Dogs, as a terminal host of Echinococcus spp., are a key part of the Echinococcus epidemic. Echinococcosis spreads easily in humans and animals in some areas of China and it is therefore necessary to fully understand the prevalence of Echinococcus spp. in dogs.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

PubMed, ScienceDirect, Chongqing VIP, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and WanFang databases were searched for relevant articles published in the past 10 years. A final total of 108 studies were included. The overall prevalence of Echinococcus spp. in dogs in China was 7.3%, with the highest point estimate found in sampling year 2015 (8.2%) and publication year 2015 (16.5%). Northwestern China (7.9%) had the highest infection rate in China. Qinghai Province (13.5%) showed the highest prevalence among the 11 provinces we included. We also found that geographical and climatic factors are related to the incidence of canine echinococcosis. We further investigated the source of heterogeneity by analysis of subgroups (sampling district, detection method, dog type, season, parasite species, medication, and study quality level).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our research indicated that Echinococcus spp. were still prevalent in some areas in China. More localized prevention and control policies should be formulated, including improving drinking water hygiene and strengthening hygiene promotion. We recommend the rational use of anti-Echinococcus drugs. In addition, treatment of livestock offal and feces and improving the welfare of stray dogs may play an important role in reducing canine Echinococcus infections.

Dynamic modeling and optimal control of cystic echinococcosis

Background

Cystic echinococcosis is one of the most severe helminth zoonosis with a drastic impact on human health and livestock industry. Investigating optimal control strategy and assessing the crucial factors are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this disease.

Methods

Two compartment models were formulated to study the dynamics of cystic echinococcosis transmission, to evaluate the effectiveness of various control measures, and to find the optimal control strategy. Sensitive analyses were conducted by obtaining PRCCs and contour plot was used to evaluate the effect of key parameters on the basic reproduction number. Based on forward–backward sweep method, numerical simulations were employed to investigate effects of key factors on the transmission of cystic echinococcosis and to obtain the optimal control strategy.

Results

The food resources of stray dog and invalid sheep vaccination rate, which are always neglected, were significant to the transmission and control of cystic echinococcosis. Numerical simulations suggest that, the implementation of optimal control strategy can significantly reduce the infections. Improving the cost of health education and domestic dog deworming could not decrease human infections.

Conclusions

Our study showed that only a long-term use of the optimal control measures can eliminate the disease. Meanwhile, during the intervention, sheep vaccination and stray dogs disposing should be emphasized ahead of domestic dogs deworming to minimize the control cost. Simultaneously reducing other wild intermediate hosts and strengthening the sheep vaccination as well as disposing the stray dogs would be most effective.

Studying on the impact of media coverage on the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China

Awareness of prevention is enhanced to reduce the rate of infection by media coverage, which plays an important role in preventing and controlling infectious diseases. Based on epidemic situation of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei, an SIHRS epidemic model with media coverage was proposed. Firstly, by the basic reproduction number R0, the globally asymptotically stable of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium were proved. Then, based on the reported epidemic data of Hubei Province from January 26 to February 13, numerical simulations are used to verify the analysis results, and the impact of peak time and the scale of disease transmission were mainly considered with different information implementation rate and the contact rate. It was shown that with the decrease of information implementation rate, the peak of confirmed cases would be delayed to reach, and would increase significantly. Therefore, in order to do a better prevention measures after resumption of work, it is very necessary to maintain the amount of information and implementation rate of media coverage.

Mathematical Global Dynamics and Control Strategies on Echinococcus multilocularis Infection

Echinococcus multilocularis, a major cause of echinococcosis in human, is a parasitic sylvatic disease between two major hosts in a predator-prey relation. A new model for the transmission dynamics of Echinococcus multilocularis in the population of red foxes and voles with environment as a source of infection is formulated and rigorously analyzed. The model is used to access the impact of treatment on red foxes and environmental disinfection as control strategies on the disease dynamics. The control reproduction number is computed and is used to rigorously prove the local and global dynamics of models' equilibria. Using available data on Echinococcus, elasticity indices and partial rank correlation coefficients of control reproduction number and cumulative new cases in red foxes and voles are computed. Parameters that have high influence locally and globally are identified. Numerical experiments indicate that administering disinfection of environment only induces more positive impact than applying treatment only on red foxes in controlling the infection. Generally, interventions towards treating red foxes and environmental disinfection could be sufficient in tackling transmission of disease in the populations.