A blood-based prognostic liver secretome signature and long-term hepatocellular carcinoma risk in advanced liver fibrosis

Early warning of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients by three-phase CT-based deep learning radiomics model: a retrospective, multicentre, cohort study

Background

The diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often experiences latency, ultimately leading to unfavorable patient outcomes due to delayed therapeutic interventions. Our study is designed to develop and validate a model that employs triple-phase computerized tomography (CT)-based deep learning radiomics and clinical variables for early warning of HCC in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

We studied 1858 patients with cirrhosis primarily from the PreCar cohort (NCT03588442) between June 2018 and January 2020 at 11 centres, and collected triple-phase CT images and laboratory results 3-12 months prior to HCC diagnosis or non-HCC final follow-up. Using radiomics and deep learning techniques, early warning model was developed in the discovery cohort (n = 924), and then validated in an internal validation cohort (n = 231), and an external validation cohort from 10 external centres (n = 703).

Findings

We developed a hybrid model, named ALARM model, which integrates deep learning radiomics with clinical variables, enabling early warning of the majority of HCC cases. The ALARM model effectively predicted short-term HCC development in cirrhotic patients with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.929 (95% confidence interval 0.918-0.941) in the discovery cohort, 0.902 (0.818-0.987) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.918 (0.898-0.961) in the external validation cohort. By applying optimal thresholds of 0.21 and 0.65, the high-risk (n = 221, 11.9%) and medium-risk (n = 433, 23.3%) groups, which covered 94.4% (84/89) of the patients who developed HCC, had significantly higher rates of HCC occurrence compared to the low-risk group (n = 1204, 64.8%) (24.3% vs 6.4% vs 0.42%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, ALARM also demonstrated consistent performance in subgroup analysis.

Interpretation

The novel ALARM model, based on deep learning radiomics with clinical variables, provides reliable estimates of short-term HCC development for cirrhotic patients, and may have the potential to improve the precision in clinical decision-making and early initiation of HCC treatments.

Funding

This work was supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC2303600, 2022YFC2304800), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82170610), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2023A1515011211).

Hepatitis C virus and hepatocellular carcinoma: carcinogenesis in the era of direct-acting antivirals

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, with a risk for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are available, the incidence, morbidity, and mortality of HCV-associated HCC are still high. This article reviews the current knowledge of the mechanisms of HCV-induced carcinogenesis with a special focus on those processes that continue after virus clearance and outlines implications for patient surveillance after DAA treatment.

Role of biomarkers in the diagnosis and management of HCC

For many cancers, biomarkers have served as an important tool across the cancer care continuum from risk stratification and early detection to diagnosis and treatment. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) remains one of the few validated biomarkers for patients with HCC. Although AFP has shown potential for each of these steps, its performance, when used alone, has often been suboptimal. There continue to be discordant recommendations about AFP's value when combined with ultrasound for surveillance, as well as its role in diagnostic algorithms. Conversely, high AFP levels are associated with aggressive tumor biology and survival, so it remains a key factor for the selection of candidates for liver transplant. There have been immense efforts to identify and validate additional biomarkers for each of these steps in the HCC care continuum. Indeed, biomarker panels have shown promising data for HCC risk stratification and surveillance among patients with cirrhosis, as well as prognostication and detection of minimal residual disease in patients undergoing HCC treatment. Several large prospective studies are currently ongoing to evaluate the role of these emerging biomarkers in clinical practice.

The Future Role of Abdominal US in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance

Abdominal US is currently the best-validated surveillance strategy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in at-risk patients. It is the only modality shown to have completed all five phases of validation and can achieve high sensitivity and specificity for HCC detection, especially when conducted by expert sonographers in high-volume centers. However, US also has limitations, including operator dependency and varying sensitivity in clinical practice. Further, the sensitivity of US for early-stage HCC detection is lower in patients with obesity or nonviral liver disease, increasingly common populations undergoing surveillance. Imaging-based and blood-based surveillance strategies, including abbreviated MRI and biomarker panels, may overcome some limitations of US-based surveillance. Both strategies have promising test performance in phase II and phase III biomarker studies and are undergoing prospective validation. Considering the variation in HCC risk and test performance between patients, there will likely be a shift away from a one-size-fits-all approach and toward precision screening, in which the "best" test is selected based on individual patient characteristics. In this upcoming era of precision HCC screening among patients with cirrhosis, US will likely continue to have an important, albeit reduced, surveillance role.

The role of alpha-fetoprotein in the tumor microenvironment of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a prevalent malignant cancer worldwide, characterized by high morbidity and mortality rates. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a glycoprotein synthesized by the liver and yolk sac during fetal development. However, the serum levels of AFP exhibit a significant correlation with the onset and progression of HCC in adults. Extensive research has demonstrated that the tumor microenvironment (TME) plays a crucial role in the malignant transformation of HCC, and AFP is a key factor in the TME, promoting HCC development. The objective of this review was to analyze the existing knowledge regarding the role of AFP in the TME. Specifically, this review focused on the effect of AFP on various cells in the TME, tumor immune evasion, and clinical application of AFP in the diagnosis and treatment of HCC. These findings offer valuable insights into the clinical treatment of HCC.

Mechanistically based blood proteomic markers in the TGF-β pathway stratify risk of hepatocellular cancer in patients with cirrhosis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of death from cancer worldwide but is often diagnosed at an advanced incurable stage. Yet, despite the urgent need for blood-based biomarkers for early detection, few studies capture ongoing biology to identify risk-stratifying biomarkers. We address this gap using the TGF-β pathway because of its biological role in liver disease and cancer, established through rigorous animal models and human studies. Using machine learning methods with blood levels of 108 proteomic markers in the TGF-β family, we found a pattern that differentiates HCC from non-HCC in a cohort of 216 patients with cirrhosis, which we refer to as TGF-β based Protein Markers for Early Detection of HCC (TPEARLE) comprising 31 markers. Notably, 20 of the patients with cirrhosis alone presented an HCC-like pattern, suggesting that they may be a group with as yet undetected HCC or at high risk for developing HCC. In addition, we found two other biologically relevant markers, Myostatin and Pyruvate Kinase M2 (PKM2), which were significantly associated with HCC. We tested these for risk stratification of HCC in multivariable models adjusted for demographic and clinical variables, as well as batch and site. These markers reflect ongoing biology in the liver. They potentially indicate the presence of HCC early in its evolution and before it is manifest as a detectable lesion, thereby providing a set of markers that may be able to stratify risk for HCC.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: Evidence-Based Tailored Approach

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is recommended by professional society guidelines given a consistent association with reduced HCC-related mortality. HCC surveillance should be performed using semiannual abdominal ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, although this combination has suboptimal sensitivity and can miss more than one-third of HCC at an early stage. There are promising emerging blood-based and imaging-based strategies, including abbreviated MRI and biomarker panels; however, these require further validation before routine use in clinical practice. HCC surveillance is underused in clinical practice due to patient-related and provider-related barriers, highlighting a need for interventions to improve surveillance utilization in clinical practice.

Inflammation-related prognostic markers in resected hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma is usually detected late and therapeutic options are unsatisfactory. Despite marked progress in patient care, HCC remains among the deadliest cancers world-wide. While surgical resection remains a key option for early-stage HCC, the 5-year survival rates after surgical resection are limited. One reason for limited outcomes is the lack of reliable prognostic biomarkers to predict HCC recurrence. HCC prognosis has been shown to correlate with different systemic and pathological markers which are associated with patient survival and HCC recurrence. Liver inflammatory processes offer a large variety of systemic and pathological markers which may be exploited to improve the reliability of prognosis and decision making of liver surgeons and hepatologists. The following review aims to dissect the potential tools, targets and prognostic meaning of inflammatory markers in patients with resectable HCC. We analyze changes in circulant cellular populations and assess inflammatory biomarkers as a surrogate of impaired outcomes and provide an overview on predictive gene expression signatures including inflammatory transcriptional patterns, which are representative of poor survival in these patients.

Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The available risk stratification indices for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) have limited applicability. We developed and externally validated an HCC risk stratification index in U.S. cohorts of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used data from 2 prospective U.S. cohorts to develop the risk index. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from 8 centers and followed until development of HCC, death, or December 31, 2021. We identified an optimal set of predictors with the highest discriminatory ability (C-index) for HCC. The predictors were refit using competing risk regression and its predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 21,550 patients with cirrhosis seen in the U.S Veterans Affairs system between 2018 and 2019 with follow-up through 2021.

RESULTS

We developed the model in 2431 patients (mean age 60 years, 31% women, 24% cured hepatitis C, 16% alcoholic liver disease, and 29% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease). The selected model had a C-index of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.81), and the predictors were age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, etiology, α-fetoprotein, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels. The AUROCs were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) at 1 year and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) at 2 years, and the model was well calibrated. In the external validation cohort, the AUROC at 2 years was 0.70 with excellent calibration.

CONCLUSION

The risk index, including objective and routinely available risk factors, can differentiate patients with cirrhosis who will develop HCC and help guide discussions regarding HCC surveillance and prevention. Future studies are needed for additional external validation and refinement of risk stratification.

Global trends in hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology: implications for screening, prevention and therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates are increasing globally, and particularly in the Western world. Cirrhosis remains the predominant risk factor for HCC. However, epidemiological shifts in the incidence of HCC from patients with virus-related liver disease to those with non-viral aetiologies, including alcohol-associated and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, have important implications for prevention, surveillance and treatment. Hepatitis B vaccination and antiviral therapy for hepatitis B and C are effective for primary prevention of virus-related HCCs, but chemoprevention strategies for non-viral liver disease remain an unmet need. Emerging data suggest associations between aspirin, statins, metformin and coffee and reduced HCC incidence, although none has been proved to be causally related. Secondary prevention of HCC via semi-annual surveillance is associated with improvements in early detection and thus reduced mortality; however, current tools, including abdominal ultrasonography, have suboptimal sensitivity for the detection of early stage HCC, particularly in patients with obesity and/or non-viral liver disease. Promising blood-based or imaging-based surveillance strategies are emerging, although these approaches require further validation before adoption in clinical practice. In the interim, efforts should be focused on maximizing use of the existing surveillance tools given their prevalent underuse globally. Remarkable advances have been made in the treatment of HCC, including expanded eligibility for surgical therapies, improved patient selection for locoregional treatments and increased systemic treatment options, including immune-checkpoint inhibitors. In this Review, we discuss trends in the epidemiology of HCC and their implications for screening, prevention and therapy.

Biomarkers for immunotherapy of hepatocellular carcinoma

Immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are now widely used for the treatment of patients with advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Two different ICI-containing regimens, atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and tremelimumab plus durvalumab, are now approved standard-of-care first-line therapies in this setting. However, and despite substantial improvements in survival outcomes relative to sorafenib, most patients with advanced-stage HCC do not derive durable benefit from these regimens. Advances in genome sequencing including the use of single-cell RNA sequencing (both of tumour material and blood samples), as well as immune cell identification strategies and other techniques such as radiomics and analysis of the microbiota, have created considerable potential for the identification of novel predictive biomarkers enabling the accurate selection of patients who are most likely to derive benefit from ICIs. In this Review, we summarize data on the immunology of HCC and the outcomes in patients receiving ICIs for the treatment of this disease. We then provide an overview of current biomarker use and developments in the past 5 years, including gene signatures, circulating tumour cells, high-dimensional flow cytometry, single-cell RNA sequencing as well as approaches involving the microbiome, radiomics and clinical markers. Novel concepts for further biomarker development in HCC are then discussed including biomarker-driven trials, spatial transcriptomics and integrated 'big data' analysis approaches. These concepts all have the potential to better identify patients who are most likely to benefit from ICIs and to promote the development of new treatment approaches.

Combination Therapy of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors with Locoregional Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is estimated to be the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally, and its overall prognosis is dismal because most cases are diagnosed at a late stage and are unamenable to curative treatment. The emergence of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) has dramatically improved the therapeutic efficacy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma; however, their response rates remain unsatisfactory, partly because >50% of HCC exhibit an ICI-nonresponsive tumor microenvironment characterized by a paucity of cytotoxic T cells (immune-cold), as well as difficulty in their infiltration into tumor sites (immune excluded). To overcome this limitation, combination therapies with locoregional therapies, including ablation, transarterial embolization, and radiotherapy, which are usually used for early stage HCCs, have been actively explored to enhance ICI efficacy by promoting the release of tumor-associated antigens and cytokines, and eventually accelerating the so-called cancer-immunity cycle. Various combination therapies have been investigated in early- to late-phase clinical trials, and some have shown promising results. This comprehensive article provides an overview of the immune landscape for HCC to understand ICI efficacy and its limitations and, subsequently, reviews the status of combinatorial therapies of ICIs with locoregional therapy for HCC.

Clinico-histological and molecular features of hepatocellular carcinoma from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) continue to increase with the epidemics of obesity, and NAFLD is estimated to become the most prevalent etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, NAFLD-HCC has been recognized to have clinico-histologically and molecularly distinct features from those from other etiologies, including a lower incidence rate of HCC and less therapeutic efficacy to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Consistent with the clinical observations that up to 50% of NAFLD-HCC occurs in the absence of cirrhosis, the imbalance of pro- and antitumorigenic hepatic stellate cells termed as myHSC and cyHSC can contribute to the creation of an HCC-prone hepatic environment, independent of the absolute fibrosis abundance. Immune deregulations by accumulated metabolites in NAFLD-affected livers, such as a fatty-acid-induced loss of cytotoxic CD4 T cells serving for immune surveillance and "auto-aggressive" CXCR6+ CD8 T cells, may promote hepatocarcinogenesis and diminish therapeutic response to ICIs. Steatohepatitic HCC (SH-HCC), characterized by the presence of fat accumulation in tumor cells, ballooned tumor cells, Mallory-Denk body, interstitial fibrosis, and intratumor immune cell infiltration, may represent a metabolic reprogramming for adapting to a lipid-rich tumor microenvironment by downregulating CPT2 and leveraging its intermediates as an "oncometabolite." Genome-wide analyses suggested that SH-HCC may be more responsive to ICIs given its mutual exclusiveness with β-catenin mutation/activation that promotes immune evasion. Thus, further understanding of NAFLD-specific hepatocarcinogenesis and HCC would enable us to improve the current daily practice and eventually the prognoses of patients with NAFLD.

Exploring Opportunities to Enhance the Screening and Surveillance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) through Risk Stratification Algorithms Incorporating Ultrasound Elastography

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), with its progressive form, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), has emerged as a significant public health concern, affecting over 30% of the global population. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a complication associated with both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic NAFLD, has shown a significant increase in incidence. A substantial proportion of NAFLD-related HCC occurs in non-cirrhotic livers, highlighting the need for improved risk stratification and surveillance strategies. This comprehensive review explores the potential role of liver ultrasound elastography as a risk assessment tool for HCC development in NAFLD and highlights the importance of effective screening tools for early, cost-effective detection and improved management of NAFLD-related HCC. The integration of non-invasive tools and algorithms into risk stratification strategies could have the capacity to enhance NAFLD-related HCC screening and surveillance effectiveness. Alongside exploring the potential advancement of non-invasive tools and algorithms for effectively stratifying HCC risk in NAFLD, we offer essential perspectives that could enable readers to improve the personalized assessment of NAFLD-related HCC risk through a more methodical screening approach.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma: The Next Threat after Viral Hepatitis

For many years, we have faced the complications of viral hepatitis and alcohol-related liver diseases such as cirrhosis, decompensation, portal hypertension, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, we have seen a dynamic change in the field of hepatology. With the significant achievements in eradicating the hepatitis C virus by direct-acting antiviral agents and the rising epidemic of obesity, diabetes mellitus, and metabolic syndrome, there is a paradigm shift in the leading cause of liver cirrhosis and cancer to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Current data highlight the rapidly rising incidence of NAFLD-related HCC worldwide and expose the unseen part of the iceberg. In this review, we aim to update knowledge about the pathogenesis of NAFLD-induced HCC, surveillance difficulties, and promising disease markers. Molecular biomarkers, for example, may become a promising cornerstone for risk-stratified surveillance, early detection, and treatment selection for NAFLD-related HCC. Physicians can offer personalized and tailor-made clinical decisions for this unique patient subgroup.

Opportunities to address gaps in early detection and improve outcomes of liver cancer

Death rates from primary liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) have continued to rise in the United States over the recent decades despite the availability of an increasing range of treatment modalities, including new systemic therapies. Prognosis is strongly associated with tumor stage at diagnosis; however, most cases of HCC are diagnosed beyond an early stage. This lack of early detection has contributed to low survival rates. Professional society guidelines recommend semiannual ultrasound-based HCC screening for at-risk populations, yet HCC surveillance continues to be underused in clinical practice. On April 28, 2022, the Hepatitis B Foundation convened a workshop to discuss the most pressing challenges and barriers to early HCC detection and the need to better leverage existing and emerging tools and technologies that could improve HCC screening and early detection. In this commentary, we summarize technical, patient-level, provider-level, and system-level challenges and opportunities to improve processes and outcomes across the HCC screening continuum. We highlight promising approaches to HCC risk stratification and screening, including new biomarkers, advanced imaging incorporating artificial intelligence, and algorithms for risk stratification. Workshop participants emphasized that action to improve early detection and reduce HCC mortality is urgently needed, noting concern that many of the challenges we face today are the same or similar to those faced a decade ago and that HCC mortality rates have not meaningfully improved. Increasing the uptake of HCC screening was identified as a short-term priority while developing and validating better screening tests and risk-appropriate surveillance strategies.

Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Indeterminate (LI-RADS 3) Liver Observations

Early hepatocellular cancer (HCC) detection is associated with curative treatment and improved survival.1 The American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommends semiannual ultrasound and α-fetoprotein (AFP) in patients with cirrhosis, and those with abnormal results should undergo diagnostic multiphase computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).2 The Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) was devised to standardize reporting of liver observations in at-risk individuals, ranging from LR-1 ("definitely benign") to LR-5 ("definitely HCC''), with indeterminate observations classified as LR-3 ("intermediate probability of malignancy").3 A study among 999 cirrhosis patients found that indeterminate liver observations are common, being reported on diagnostic CT or MRI in 98 (38.3%) of 256 patients with abnormal ultrasound results.4 Prior studies have reported a wide range in HCC risk, from 4% to 31%, for LR-3 observations, so there is insufficient evidence to recommend a standardized strategy for monitoring LR-3 observations.5,6.

Recall patterns and risk of primary liver cancer for subcentimeter ultrasound liver observations: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Patients with cirrhosis and subcentimeter lesions on liver ultrasound are recommended to undergo short-interval follow-up ultrasound because of the presumed low risk of primary liver cancer (PLC).

AIMS

The aim of this study is to characterize recall patterns and risk of PLC in patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study among patients with cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B infection who had subcentimeter ultrasound lesions between January 2017 and December 2019. We excluded patients with a history of PLC or concomitant lesions ≥1 cm in diameter. We used Kaplan Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses to characterize time-to-PLC and factors associated with PLC, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 746 eligible patients, most (66.0%) had a single observation, and the median diameter was 0.7 cm (interquartile range: 0.5-0.8 cm). Recall strategies varied, with only 27.8% of patients undergoing guideline-concordant ultrasound within 3-6 months. Over a median follow-up of 26 months, 42 patients developed PLC (39 HCC and 3 cholangiocarcinoma), yielding an incidence of 25.7 cases (95% CI, 6.2-47.0) per 1000 person-years, with 3.9% and 6.7% developing PLC at 2 and 3 years, respectively. Factors associated with time-to-PLC were baseline alpha-fetoprotein >10 ng/mL (HR: 4.01, 95% CI, 1.85-8.71), platelet count ≤150 (HR: 4.90, 95% CI, 1.95-12.28), and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis (vs. Child-Pugh A: HR: 2.54, 95% CI, 1.27-5.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Recall patterns for patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound varied widely. The low risk of PLC in these patients supports short-interval ultrasound in 3-6 months, although diagnostic CT/MRI may be warranted for high-risk subgroups such as those with elevated alpha-fetoprotein levels.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may progress to cirrhotic or non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and is currently recognized as the fastest growing cause of HCC worldwide. Accordingly, professional society guidelines recommend HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis from any etiology, and some may consider it beneficial in subgroups with non-cirrhotic NAFLD at higher risk for HCC. Notably, patients with NAFLD-related HCC are more likely to have HCC diagnosed at more advanced stages and have poorer outcomes when compared to other etiologies, and suboptimal effectiveness of HCC surveillance programs is a major culprit. In this review, we summarize the current guidelines for HCC surveillance and discuss its benefits versus potential harms for NAFLD patients. We also address the unique challenges of HCC surveillance in NAFLD, including higher proportion of NAFLD-related HCC without cirrhosis, poor recognition of at-risk patients, lack of consensus regarding the value of surveillance in non-cirrhotic NAFLD, subpar effectiveness of surveillance tools related to NAFLD phenotype, and preponderant surveillance underuse among NAFLD patients. Finally, we examine the effectiveness of currently used surveillance tools (i.e., ultrasound and alpha fetoprotein) and outline future perspectives including emerging risk stratification tools, imaging surveillance strategies (e.g., abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging protocols), blood-based biomarkers (e.g., GALAD and circulating tumor DNA panels), and interventions to improve surveillance adherence.

Blood-based biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma screening: Approaching the end of the ultrasound era?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, in part because of inadequate early detection strategies. Current recommendations for screening consist of semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein in patients with cirrhosis and in demographic subgroups with chronic hepatitis B infection. However, this screening strategy has several deficiencies, including suboptimal early-stage sensitivity, false positives with subsequent harms, inter-operator variability in ultrasound performance, and poor adherence. A blood-based biomarker with sufficient performance characteristics for early-stage disease could overcome several of these barriers to improving early-stage detection. However, prior to use of a biomarker for screening in clinical practice, a multistep validation is required in order to understand test performance characteristics. These steps include case-control validation, followed by validation in prospective cohorts of at-risk patients. Until recently, we lacked adequate longitudinal validation cohorts for early HCC detection; however, several validation cohorts are maturing, including the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Study and the Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Consortium, which will allow for rigorous validation of candidate biomarkers. While there are several promising biomarkers awaiting validation, in order to supplant abdominal ultrasound, a candidate biomarker must show adequate test performance and overcome practical hurdles to ensure adoption in clinical practice. The promise of blood-based biomarkers is significant, especially given the limitations of ultrasound-based screening; however, they require adequate validation and several logistical obstacles must be overcome prior to clinical implementation.

Microbiome and Metabolomics in Liver Cancer: Scientific Technology

Primary liver cancer is a heterogeneous disease. Liver cancer metabolism includes both the reprogramming of intracellular metabolism to enable cancer cells to proliferate inappropriately and adapt to the tumor microenvironment and fluctuations in regular tissue metabolism. Currently, metabolomics and metabolite profiling in liver cirrhosis, liver cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been in the spotlight in terms of cancer diagnosis, monitoring, and therapy. Metabolomics is the global analysis of small molecules, chemicals, and metabolites. Metabolomics technologies can provide critical information about the liver cancer state. Here, we review how liver cirrhosis, liver cancer, and HCC therapies interact with metabolism at the cellular and systemic levels. An overview of liver metabolomics is provided, with a focus on currently available technologies and how they have been used in clinical and translational research. We also list scalable methods, including chemometrics, followed by pathway processing in liver cancer. We conclude that important drivers of metabolomics science and scientific technologies are novel therapeutic tools and liver cancer biomarker analysis.

Clinical outcomes of patients with Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System 3 or Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System 4 observations in patients with cirrhosis: A systematic review

Patients with indeterminate liver nodules, classified as LR-3 and LR-4 observations per the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System, are at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but risk estimates remain imprecise. We conducted a systematic review of Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases from inception to December 2021 to identify cohort studies examining HCC incidence among patients with LR-3 or LR-4 observations on computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Predictors of HCC were abstracted from each study, when available. Of 13 total studies, nine conducted LR-3 observation-level analyses, with the proportions of incident HCC ranging from 1.2% to 12.5% at 12 months and 4.2% to 44.4% during longer study follow-up. Among three studies with patient-level analyses, 8%-22.2% of patients with LR-3 lesions developed LR-4 observations and 11.1%-24.5% developed HCC. Among nine studies conducting LR-4 observation-level analyses, incident HCC ranged from 30.8% to 44.0% at 12 months and 30.9% to 71.0% during study follow-up; conversely, 6%-42% of observations were downgraded to LR-3 or lower. Patient-level factors associated with HCC included older age, male sex, higher alpha-fetoprotein levels, viral etiology, and prior history of HCC; observation-level factors included maximum diameter, threshold growth, T2 hyperintensity, and visibility on ultrasound. Studies were limited by small sample sizes, inclusion of patients with prior HCC, short follow-up duration, and failure to account for clustering of observations in patients or competing risks of transplantation and death. LR-3 and LR-4 observations have elevated but variable risks of HCC. Higher quality studies are necessary to identify high-risk patients who warrant close CT or MRI-based follow-up.

Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma: roadmap for improvement

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a poor prognosis, related, in part, to frequent late-stage diagnosis. Improved implementation of effective HCC surveillance is critical to reduce HCC mortality.

AREAS COVERED

We performed a targeted literature review to identify intervention targets for improving HCC surveillance effectiveness, including enriched risk stratification tools, improved surveillance tools with higher accuracy for early HCC detection, and increasing surveillance adherence.

EXPERT OPINION

HCC surveillance has been demonstrated to be efficacious in several cohort studies but has lower surveillance effectiveness in clinical practice. HCC surveillance is currently recommended in all patients with cirrhosis, and improved risk stratification using clinical risk scores, genetic scores, and novel biomarkers are important to move from a 'one-size-fits-all' strategy to one more aligned with values of precision medicine. Current surveillance modalities, ultrasound, and AFP, miss over one-third of HCC at an early stage and are associated with potential surveillance harms, underscoring a need for alternative surveillance strategies with higher accuracy. MRI- and biomarker-based surveillance strategies have promising early data in phase II studies but require validation in phase III cohorts before routine use in practice. Finally, surveillance is underused in clinical practice, highlighting a need for intervention strategies to increase utilization.

A Blood-Based Prognostic Liver Secretome Signature Predicts Long-term Risk of Hepatic Decompensation in Cirrhosis

Cirrhosis is the terminal stage of progressive liver fibrosis, affecting 1%-2% of the global population and accounting for 1.3 million deaths annually.1,2 Median survival for persons with compensated cirrhosis is approximately 12 years, compared with only 2 years for those with hepatic decompensation. Accurate prediction of hepatic decompensation is an unmet need to enable identification of patients with cirrhosis who could benefit from close monitoring and timely medical interventions. Besides, risk stratification of patients with cirrhosis could help inform patient selection for trials evaluating therapies to prevent hepatic decompensation. Although various clinical scores, such as the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) indices (ALBI-FIB4 score) have been proposed to predict long-term risk of hepatic decompensation,3 external validation has often shown suboptimal prognostic capability and revealed room for improvement.4.

Molecular Signature Predictive of Long-Term Liver Fibrosis Progression to Inform Antifibrotic Drug Development

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There is a major unmet need to assess the prognostic impact of antifibrotics in clinical trials because of the slow rate of liver fibrosis progression. We aimed to develop a surrogate biomarker to predict future fibrosis progression.

METHODS

A fibrosis progression signature (FPS) was defined to predict fibrosis progression within 5 years in patients with hepatitis C virus and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with no to minimal fibrosis at baseline (n = 421) and was validated in an independent NAFLD cohort (n = 78). The FPS was used to assess response to 13 candidate antifibrotics in organotypic ex vivo cultures of clinical fibrotic liver tissues (n = 78) and cenicriviroc in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis enrolled in a clinical trial (n = 19, NCT02217475). A serum protein-based surrogate FPS was developed and tested in a cohort of compensated cirrhosis patients (n = 122).

RESULTS

A 20-gene FPS was defined and validated in an independent NAFLD cohort (adjusted odds ratio, 10.93; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.86). Among computationally inferred fibrosis-driving FPS genes, BCL2 was confirmed as a potential pharmacologic target using clinical liver tissues. Systematic ex vivo evaluation of 13 candidate antifibrotics identified rational combination therapies based on epigallocatechin gallate, which were validated for enhanced antifibrotic effect in ex vivo culture of clinical liver tissues. In patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis treated with cenicriviroc, FPS modulation was associated with 1-year fibrosis improvement accompanied by suppression of the E2F pathway. Induction of the PPARα pathway was absent in patients without fibrosis improvement, suggesting a benefit of combining PPARα agonism to improve the antifibrotic efficacy of cenicriviroc. A 7-protein serum protein-based surrogate FPS was associated with the development of decompensation in cirrhosis patients.

CONCLUSION

The FPS predicts long-term fibrosis progression in an etiology-agnostic manner, which can inform antifibrotic drug development.

Plasma-Signature-Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score to Predict Survival in Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a highly lethal condition and it is still a challenge to predict the outcome. We previously identified and validated a composite score of hepatic 123-gene prognostic signature and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score: gene signature-MELD. However, the need for liver biopsy limits its clinical application. Therefore, we aimed to identify a plasma protein-based surrogate of the gene signature and independently validate its prognostic capability.

METHODS

All patients were diagnosed with severe AH at Cliniques universitaires de Bruxelles Hôpital Erasme (Brussels, Belgium), and the plasma samples were collected at admission before any treatment. The primary outcome was death or liver transplantation within 90 days. Using our computational pipeline, named translation of tissue expression to secretome (TexSEC), a hepatic-transcriptome-based prognostic signature was converted to a plasma-based secretome signature, which was optimized in 50 patients by comparing their hepatic molecular dysregulation status and combining it with the MELD score. The composite score was validated independently in 57 patients.

RESULTS

The TexSEC and optimization process identified a 6-plasma-protein panel as a surrogate for the 123-gene signature. A composite score with the MELD score, the plasma-signature (ps)-MELD score, was created by using the coefficients of the gene signature-MELD equation. In the validation cohort, the high-risk ps-MELD (n = 23; 40%) was associated significantly with death or liver transplantation within 90 days (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.57; 95% CI, 2.15-9.30; P < .001). The ps-MELD score showed a stable, high prognostic association (time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curve, >0.80) and was well calibrated over time; it consistently outperformed existing clinical scores as indicated by various model performance indices.

CONCLUSIONS

The high-risk ps-MELD score was associated with short-term survival in patients with severe AH.

Liver cell circuits and therapeutic discovery for advanced liver disease and cancer

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major global health challenge with rising incidence. Despite the previous approval of several novel therapeutic approaches, HCC remains the second common cause of cancer-related death worldwide. The vast majority of HCCs arises in the context of chronic fibrotic liver diseases caused by viral or metabolic etiologies. In patients with advanced liver disease the risk of HCC persists even after viral cure or control of infection. Moreover, given the change in the lifestyle and increase of obesity and metabolic disorders, HCC incidence is predicted to drastically augment in the next decade. Early detection, improvement of the screening method in patient at-risk and development of chemopreventive strategies are therefore urgently needed to reduce HCC risk. This review summarizes the major challenges in the identification of patient at risk for HCC and the emergent strategies for HCC prevention to improve patients’ outcome.