Origin, imports and exports of HIV-1 subtype C in South Africa: A historical perspective

The emergence and circulation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 subtype C

Introduction. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 subtype C is the most prevalent globally and is thought to have originated in non-human primates in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Hypothesis/Gap Statement. Although the global dominance of HIV-1 subtype C is well established, a thorough understanding of its evolutionary history and transmission dynamics across various risk populations remains elusive. The current knowledge is insufficient to fully capture the global diversification and dissemination of this subtype.Aim. We for the first time sought to investigate the global evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 subtype C using a selection of maximum-likelihood-based phylodynamic approaches on a total of 1210 near full-length genomic sequences sampled from 32 countries, collected in 4 continents, with sampling dates between 1986-2019 among various risk groups were analysed.Methodology. We subsampled the HIV-1 subtype C genomic datasets based on continent and risk group traits, and performed nucleotide substitution model selection analysis, maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic reconstruction, phylogenetic tree topology similarity analysis, temporal signal analysis and traced the timings of viral spread both geographically and by risk group.Results. Based on the phylodynamic analyses of four datasets (full1210, locrisk626, loc562 and risk393), we inferred the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) in the 1930s and an evolutionary rate of 0.0023 substitutions per site per year. The total number of introduction events of HIV-1 subtype C between continents and between risk groups is estimated to be 71 and 115, respectively. The largest number of introductions occurred from Africa to Europe (n=32), from not-recorded to heterosexual (n=40) and from heterosexual to not-recorded (n=51) risk groups.Conclusion. Our results emphasize that HIV subtype C has mainly spread from Africa to Europe, likely through heterosexual transmission.

Evaluating whole HIV-1 genome sequence for estimation of incidence and migration in a rural South African community

Background: South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) in the world, with HIV prevalence and transmission patterns varying greatly between provinces. Transmission between regions is still poorly understood, but phylodynamics of HIV-1 evolution can reveal how many infections are attributable to contacts outside a given community. We analysed whole genome HIV-1 genetic sequences to estimate incidence and the proportion of transmissions between communities in Hlabisa, a rural South African community. Methods: We separately analysed HIV-1 for gag, pol, and env genes sampled from 2,503 PLWHIV. We estimated time-scaled phylogenies by maximum likelihood under a molecular clock model. Phylodynamic models were fitted to time-scaled trees to estimate transmission rates, effective number of infections, incidence through time, and the proportion of infections imported to Hlabisa. We also partitioned time-scaled phylogenies with significantly different distributions of coalescent times. Results: Phylodynamic analyses showed similar trends in epidemic growth rates between 1980 and 1990. Model-based estimates of incidence and effective number of infections were consistent across genes. Parameter estimates with gag were generally smaller than those estimated with pol and env. When estimating the proportions of new infections in Hlabisa from immigration or transmission from external sources, our posterior median estimates were 85% (95% credible interval (CI) = 78%–92%) for gag, 62% (CI = 40%–78%) for pol, and 77% (CI = 58%–90%) for env in 2015. Analysis of phylogenetic partitions by gene showed that most close global reference sequences clustered within a single partition. This suggests local evolving epidemics or potential unmeasured heterogeneity in the population. Conclusions: We estimated consistent epidemic dynamic trends for gag, pol and env genes using phylodynamic models. There was a high probability that new infections were not attributable to endogenous transmission within Hlabisa, suggesting high inter-connectedness between communities in rural South Africa.

Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Ethiopia: Epidemic Decline Coincided With Behavioral Interventions Before ART Scale-Up

Background

Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan countries hit hard by the HIV epidemic. Previous studies have shown that subtype C dominates the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic, but the evolutionary and temporal dynamics of HIV-1 in Ethiopia have not been closely scrutinized. Understanding the evolutionary and epidemiological pattern of HIV is vital to monitor the spread, evaluate and implement HIV prevention strategies.

Methods

We analyzed 1,276 Ethiopian HIV-1 subtype C polymerase (pol sequences), including 144 newly generated sequences, collected from different parts of the country from 1986 to 2017. We employed state-of-art maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylodynamic analyses to comprehensively describe the evolutionary dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to estimate the dynamics of the effective population size (Ne) and reproductive numbers (Re) through time for the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia.

Results

Our analysis revealed that the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic originated from two independent introductions at the beginning of the 1970s and 1980s from eastern and southern African countries, respectively, followed by epidemic growth reaching its maximum in the early 1990s. We identified three large clusters with a majority of Ethiopian sequences. Phylodynamic analyses revealed that all three clusters were characterized by high transmission rates during the early epidemic, followed by a decline in HIV-1 transmissions after 1990. Re was high (4–6) during the earlier time of the epidemic but dropped significantly and remained low (Re < 1) after the mid-1990. Similarly, with an expected shift in time, the effective population size (Ne) steadily increased until the beginning of 2000, followed by a decline and stabilization until recent years. The phylodynamic analyses corroborated the modeled UNAIDS incidence and prevalence estimates.

Conclusion

The rapid decline in the HIV epidemic took place a decade before introducing antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia and coincided with early behavioral, preventive, and awareness interventions implemented in the country. Our findings highlight the importance of behavioral interventions and antiretroviral therapy scale-up to halt and maintain HIV transmissions at low levels (Re < 1). The phylodynamic analyses provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

The role of high-risk geographies in the perpetuation of the HIV epidemic in rural South Africa: A spatial molecular epidemiology study

In this study, we hypothesize that HIV geographical clusters (geospatial areas with significantly higher numbers of HIV positive individuals) can behave as the highly connected nodes in the transmission network. Using data come from one of the most comprehensive demographic surveillance systems in Africa, we found that more than 70% of the HIV transmission links identified were directly connected to an HIV geographical cluster located in a peri-urban area. Moreover, we identified a single central large community of highly connected nodes located within the HIV cluster. This module was composed by nodes highly connected among them, forming a central structure of the network that was also connected with the small sparser modules located outside of the HIV geographical cluster. Our study supports the evidence of the high level of connectivity between HIV geographical high-risk populations and the entire community.

A landscape planning agenda for global health security: Learning from the history of HIV/AIDS and pandemic influenza

This paper considers the role of landscape planning and design in the context of a growing need for research and policy recommendations associated with Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs), of which COVID-19 is the most recent. Beginning with a definition of EIDs and their origins within the context of landscape planning, the paper then argues that planning and design scholars and practitioners should begin by seeing the importance of a "global urban ecosystem" (GUE) comprised of rapidly transforming metropolitan and regional "patches" connected through "corridors" of relatively unregulated global transportation and mobility networks. It then revisits the history of the two prior global pandemics of HIV/AIDS and pandemic influenza to establish the importance of a landscape planning perspective at the intersection of wildlife, livestock, and globally connected human communities. The essay concludes by arguing that this GUE concept can facilitate creative planning and design by adapting concepts established in other patch and corridor networks like urban transit systems to the ongoing risk of future pandemic EIDs.

A year of genomic surveillance reveals how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolded in Africa

The progression of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic in Africa has so far been heterogeneous, and the full impact is not yet well understood. In this study, we describe the genomic epidemiology using a dataset of 8746 genomes from 33 African countries and two overseas territories. We show that the epidemics in most countries were initiated by importations predominantly from Europe, which diminished after the early introduction of international travel restrictions. As the pandemic progressed, ongoing transmission in many countries and increasing mobility led to the emergence and spread within the continent of many variants of concern and interest, such as B.1.351, B.1.525, A.23.1, and C.1.1. Although distorted by low sampling numbers and blind spots, the findings highlight that Africa must not be left behind in the global pandemic response, otherwise it could become a source for new variants.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Drug Resistance, Phylogenetic Analysis, and Superinfection Among Men Who Have Sex with Men and Transgender Women in Sub-Saharan Africa: HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 075 Study

BACKGROUND

The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 075 study evaluated the feasibility of enrolling and retaining men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) from Kenya, Malawi, and South Africa. During the study follow-up, 21 participants acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (seroconverters). We analyzed HIV subtype diversity, drug resistance, transmission dynamics, and HIV superinfection data among MSM and TGW enrolled in HPTN 075.

METHODS

HIV genotyping and drug resistance testing were performed for participants living with HIV who had viral loads >400 copies/mL at screening (prevalent cases, n = 124) and seroconverters (n = 21). HIV pol clusters were identified using Cluster Picker. Superinfection was assessed by a longitudinal analysis of env and pol sequences generated by next-generation sequencing.

RESULTS

HIV genotyping was successful for 123/124 prevalent cases and all 21 seroconverters. The major HIV subtypes were A1 (Kenya) and C (Malawi and South Africa). Major drug resistance mutations were detected in samples from 21 (14.6%) of 144 participants; the most frequent mutations were K103N and M184V/I. Phylogenetic analyses identified 11 clusters (2-6 individuals). Clusters included seroconverters only (n = 1), prevalent cases and seroconverters (n = 4), and prevalent cases only (n = 6). Superinfections were identified in 1 prevalent case and 2 seroconverters. The annual incidence of superinfection was higher among seroconverters than among prevalent cases, and was higher than the rate of primary HIV infection in the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This report provides important insights into HIV genetic diversity, drug resistance, and superinfection among MSM and TGW in sub-Saharan Africa. These findings may help to inform future HIV prevention interventions in these high-risk groups.

The Role of Phylogenetics in Discerning HIV-1 Mixing among Vulnerable Populations and Geographic Regions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

To reduce global HIV-1 incidence, there is a need to understand and disentangle HIV-1 transmission dynamics and to determine the geographic areas and populations that act as hubs or drivers of HIV-1 spread. In Sub-Saharan Africa (sSA), the region with the highest HIV-1 burden, information about such transmission dynamics is sparse. Phylogenetic inference is a powerful method for the study of HIV-1 transmission networks and source attribution. In this review, we assessed available phylogenetic data on mixing between HIV-1 hotspots (geographic areas and populations with high HIV-1 incidence and prevalence) and areas or populations with lower HIV-1 burden in sSA. We searched PubMed and identified and reviewed 64 studies on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between risk groups and geographic locations in sSA (published 1995-2021). We describe HIV-1 transmission from both a geographic and a risk group perspective in sSA. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing phylogenetic inference in mixed epidemics in sSA and offer our perspectives and potential solutions to the identified challenges.

Country Level Diversity of the HIV-1 Pandemic between 1990 and 2015

The global diversity of HIV forms a major challenge to the development of an HIV vaccine, as well as diagnostic, drug resistance, and viral load assays, which are essential to reaching the UNAIDS 90:90:90 targets. We sought to determine country level HIV-1 diversity globally between 1990 and 2015. We assembled a global HIV-1 molecular epidemiology database through a systematic literature search and a global survey. We searched PubMed, EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL (Ebscohost), and Global Health (Ovid) for HIV-1 subtyping studies published from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2015. We collected additional unpublished data through a global survey of experts. Prevalence studies with original HIV-1 subtyping data collected between 1990 and 2015 were included. This resulted in a database with 383,519 subtyped HIV-1 samples from 116 countries over four time periods (1990 to 1999, 2000 to 2004, 2005 to 2009, and 2010 to 2015). We analyzed country-specific numbers of distinct HIV-1 subtypes, circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), and unique recombinant forms (URFs) in each time period. We also analyzed country-specific proportions of infections due to HIV-1 recombinants, CRFs, and URFs and calculated the Shannon diversity index for each country. Finally, we analyzed global temporal trends in each of these measures of HIV-1 diversity. We found extremely wide variation in complexity of country level HIV diversity around the world. Central African countries such as Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola, and Republic of the Congo have the most diverse HIV epidemics. The number of distinct HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants was greatest in Western Europe (Spain and France) and North America (United States) (up to 39 distinct HIV-1 variants in Spain). The proportion of HIV-1 infections due to recombinants was highest in Southeast Asia (>95% of infections in Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Thailand), China, and West and Central Africa, mainly due to high proportions of CRF01_AE and CRF02_AG. Other CRFs played major roles (>75% of HIV-1 infections) in Estonia (CRF06_cpx), Iran (CRF35_AD), and Algeria (CRF06_cpx). The highest proportions of URFs (>30%) were found in Myanmar, Republic of the Congo, and Argentina. Global temporal analysis showed consistent increases over time in country level numbers of distinct HIV-1 variants and proportions of CRFs and URFs, leading to increases in country level HIV-1 diversity. Our study provides epidemiological evidence that the HIV pandemic is diversifying at country level and highlights the increasing challenge to prevention and treatment efforts. HIV-1 molecular epidemiological surveillance needs to be continued and improved.IMPORTANCE This is the first study to analyze global country level HIV-1 diversity from 1990 to 2015. We found extremely wide variation in complexity of country level HIV diversity around the world. Central African countries have the most diverse HIV epidemics. The number of distinct HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants was greatest in Western Europe and North America. The proportion of HIV-1 infections due to recombinants was highest in South-East Asia, China, and West and Central Africa. The highest proportions of URFs were found in Myanmar, Republic of the Congo, and Argentina. Our study provides epidemiological evidence that the HIV pandemic is diversifying at country level and highlights the increasing challenge to HIV vaccine development and diagnostic, drug resistance, and viral load assays.

Global and regional epidemiology of HIV-1 recombinants in 1990-2015: a systematic review and global survey

BACKGROUND

Global HIV-1 genetic diversity and evolution form a major challenge to treatment and prevention efforts. An increasing number of distinct HIV-1 recombinants have been identified worldwide, but their contribution to the global epidemic is unknown. We aimed to estimate the global and regional distribution of HIV-1 recombinant forms during 1990-2015.

METHODS

We assembled a global HIV-1 molecular epidemiology database through a systematic literature review and a global survey. We searched the PubMed, Embase (Ovid), CINAHL (Ebscohost), and Global Health (Ovid) databases for HIV-1 subtyping studies published from Jan 1, 1990, to Dec 31, 2015. Unpublished original HIV-1 subtyping data were collected through a survey among experts in the field who were members of the WHO-UNAIDS Network for HIV Isolation and Characterisation. We included prevalence studies with HIV-1 subtyping data collected during 1990-2015. Countries were grouped into 14 regions and analyses were done for four time periods (1990-99, 2000-04, 2005-09, and 2010-15). The distribution of circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) and unique recombinant forms (URFs) in individual countries was weighted according to the UNAIDS estimates of the number of people living with HIV in each country to generate regional and global estimates of numbers and proportions of HIV-1 recombinants in each time period. The systematic review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017067164.

FINDINGS

Our global data collection yielded an HIV-1 molecular epidemiology database of 383 519 samples from 116 countries in 1990-2015. We found that the proportion of recombinants increased over time, both globally and in most regions, reaching 22·8% (7 978 517 of 34 921 639) of global HIV-1 infections in 2010-15. Both the proportion and the number of distinct CRFs detected increased over time to 16·7% and 57 CRFs in 2010-15. The global and regional distribution of HIV-1 recombinants was diverse and evolved over time, and we found large regional variation in the numbers (0-44 CRFs), types (58 distinct CRFs), and proportions (0-80·5%) of HIV-1 recombinants. Globally, CRF02_AG was the most prevalent recombinant, accounting for 33·9% (2 701 364 of 7 978 517) of all recombinant infections in 2010-15. URFs accounted for 26·7% (2 131 450 of 7 978 517), CRF01_AE for 23·0% (1 838 433), and other CRFs for 16·4% (1 307 270) of all recombinant infections in 2010-15. Although other CRFs accounted for small proportions of infections globally (<1% each), they were prominent in regional epidemics, including in east and southeast Asia, west and central Africa, Middle East and north Africa, and eastern Europe and central Asia. In addition, in 2010-15, central Africa (21·3% [243 041 of 1 143 531]), west Africa (15·5% [838 476 of 5 419 010]), east Africa (12·6% [591 140 of 4 704 986]), and Latin America (9·6% [153 069 of 1 586 605]) had high proportions of URFs.

INTERPRETATION

HIV-1 recombinants are increasingly prominent in global and regional HIV epidemics, which has important implications for the development of an HIV vaccine and the design of diagnostic, resistance, and viral load assays. Continued and improved surveillance of the global molecular epidemiology of HIV is crucial.

FUNDING

None.

Evolution of respiratory syncytial virus genotype BA in Kilifi, Kenya, 15 years on

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is recognised as a leading cause of severe acute respiratory disease and deaths among infants and vulnerable adults. Clinical RSV isolates can be divided into several known genotypes. RSV genotype BA, characterised by a 60-nucleotide duplication in the G glycoprotein gene, emerged in 1999 and quickly disseminated globally replacing other RSV group B genotypes. Continual molecular epidemiology is critical to understand the evolutionary processes maintaining the success of the BA viruses. We analysed 735 G gene sequences from samples collected from paediatric patients in Kilifi, Kenya, between 2003 and 2017. The virus population comprised of several genetically distinct variants (n = 56) co-circulating within and between epidemics. In addition, there was consistent seasonal fluctuations in relative genetic diversity. Amino acid changes increasingly accumulated over the surveillance period including two residues (N178S and Q180R) that mapped to monoclonal antibody 2D10 epitopes, as well as addition of putative N-glycosylation sequons. Further, switching and toggling of amino acids within and between epidemics was observed. On a global phylogeny, the BA viruses from different countries form geographically isolated clusters suggesting substantial localized variants. This study offers insights into longitudinal population dynamics of a globally endemic RSV genotype within a discrete location.

A retrospective descriptive investigation of adult patients receiving third-line antiretroviral therapy in the North West province, South Africa

Background

Greater access and prolonged exposure to ART may inevitably lead to more treatment failure and increase the need for third-line ART (TLART) in a resource-limited setting.

Objective

To describe characteristics and resistance patterns of adult patients initiated on TLART in three districts of the North West province.

Method

All-inclusive retrospective descriptive investigation. Demographics and clinical variables were recorded from adult patient health records (2002-2017) and analysed.

Results

21 Patients (17 females, 4 males) with median (IQR) age of 34 years (30.2-37.8) at HIV diagnosis and 45 years (39.5–47) at TLART initiation were included. Median duration (days) from HIV diagnosis to first-line ART initiation was 101 (37-367), treatment duration on first-line, second-line and between second-line failure and TLART initiation were: 1 269 (765–2 343); 1 512 (706-2096) and 71 (58-126) days respectively.

High-level resistance most prevalent were: nelfinavir/r (85.7%), indinavir/r (80.9%), lopinavir/r (76.2%), emtricitabine and lamivudine (95.2%), nevirapine (76.2%) and efavirenz (71.4%). Resistance to 3 major PI mutations in 95% of patients and cross resistance were documented extensively.

Conclusion

This study support the need for earlier resistance testing. It firstly reported on time duration post diagnosis on various ART regimens and secondly resistance patterns of adults before TLART was initiated in these districts.

Understanding the mechanisms driving the spread of subtype C HIV-1

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype C (C-HIV) is the most prevalent form of HIV-1 globally, accounting for approximately 50% of infections worldwide. C-HIV is the predominant and near-exclusive subtype in the low resource regions of India and Southern Africa. Given the vast diversity of HIV-1 subtypes, it is curious as to why C-HIV constitutes such a large proportion of global infections. This enriched prevalence may be due to phenotypic differences between C-HIV isolates and other viral strains that permit enhanced transmission efficiency or, pathogenicity, or might due to the socio-demographics of the regions where C-HIV is endemic. Here, we compare the mechanisms of C-HIV pathogenesis to less prominent HIV-1 subtypes, including viral genetic and phenotypic characteristics, and host genetic variability, to understand whether evolutionary factors drove C-HIV to predominance.

Distinct rates and patterns of spread of the major HIV-1 subtypes in Central and East Africa

Since the ignition of the HIV-1 group M pandemic in the beginning of the 20th century, group M lineages have spread heterogeneously throughout the world. Subtype C spread rapidly through sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the dominant HIV lineage worldwide. Yet the epidemiological and evolutionary circumstances that contributed to its epidemiological expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 346 novel pol sequences from the DRC to compare the evolutionary dynamics of the main HIV-1 lineages, subtypes A1, C and D. Our results place the origins of subtype C in the 1950s in Mbuji-Mayi, the mining city of southern DRC, while subtypes A1 and D emerged in the capital city of Kinshasa, and subtypes H and J in the less accessible port city of Matadi. Following a 15-year period of local transmission in southern DRC, we find that subtype C spread at least three-fold faster than other subtypes circulating in Central and East Africa. In conclusion, our results shed light on the origins of HIV-1 main lineages and suggest that socio-historical rather than evolutionary factors may have determined the epidemiological fate of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.

Near full-length HIV-1 subtype B sequences from the early South African epidemic, detecting a BD unique recombinant form (URF) from a sample in 1985

HIV-1 subtype C is the most prevalent subtype in South Africa. Although subtype B was previously detected in South Africa, there is limited sequence information available. We characterized near full-length HIV-1 subtype B sequences from samples collected at the start of the South African HIV-1 epidemic, in the 1980s. Five samples were analysed by PCR amplification, Sanger DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analyses. The viral genomes were amplified in two overlapping fragments of 5.5 kb and 3.7 kb. The sequences were subtyped using REGA version 3.0, RIP version 3.0 and jpHMM. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic trees were inferred with MEGA version 6. Four HIV-1 patient sequences were subtyped as pure HIV-1 subtype B. One sequence was characterized as a novel HIV-1 subtype B and D recombinant. The sequences clustered phylogenetically with other HIV-1 subtype B sequences from South Africa, Europe and the USA. We report the presence of an HIV-1 subtype B and D recombinant strain detected in the beginning of the epidemic. This indicates that viral recombination events were already happening in 1985, but could have been missed as sequence analyses were often limited to small genomic regions of HIV-1.

The effect of interventions on the transmission and spread of HIV in South Africa: a phylodynamic analysis

The epidemic in South Africa is characterized by high genetic diversity driven by multiple independent introductions. The bulk of these introductions occurred between 1985-2000 during which time HIV prevalence increased exponentially. Epidemic growth has stabilized in recent years with the implementation of several interventions. Here we identified distinct HIV clades from a large sequence dataset of southern African HIV sequences (n = 15,332). Each clade was characterized using phylodynamic and phylogeographic methods to infer their growth through time and space. The estimated date of origin for the 18 clades that were found, fell between 1979-1992 with strong growth during the 1990's. Phylogeographic reconstruction revealed wide dispersal of clades throughout the country with the city of Johannesburg as the focal point of viral dispersal. We found clear signs of decreasing growth rate in four of the clades since the advent of interventions, while other clades have continued to growth and expand. Our results demonstrate that interventions do not affect the HIV epidemic universally with major difference between different clades over time and space. Here we demonstrate the utility and flexibility of molecular epidemiological methods and demonstrate how they can potentially be a powerful tool in HIV epidemic monitoring in South Africa.

HIV-genetic diversity and drug resistance transmission clusters in Gondar, Northern Ethiopia, 2003-2013

BACKGROUND

The HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia has been shown to be dominated by two phylogenetically distinct subtype C clades, the Ethiopian (C'-ET) and East African (C-EA) clades, however, little is known about the temporal dynamics of the HIV epidemic with respect to subtypes and distinct clades. Moreover, there is only limited information concerning transmission of HIV-1 drug resistance (TDR) in the country.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among young antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve individuals recently diagnosed with HIV infection, in Gondar, Ethiopia, 2011-2013 using the WHO recommended threshold survey. A total of 84 study participants with a median age of 22 years were enrolled. HIV-1 genotyping was performed and investigated for drug resistance in 67 individuals. Phylogenetic analyses were performed on all available HIV sequences obtained from Gondar (n = 301) which were used to define subtype C clades, temporal trends and local transmission clusters. Dating of transmission clusters was performed using BEAST.

RESULT

Four of 67 individuals (6.0%) carried a HIV drug resistance mutation strain, all associated with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). Strains of the C-EA clade were most prevalent as we found no evidence of temporal changes during this time period. However, strains of the C-SA clade, prevalent in Southern Africa, have been introduced in Ethiopia, and became more abundant during the study period. The oldest Gondar transmission clusters dated back to 1980 (C-EA), 1983 (C-SA) and 1990 (C'-ET) indicating the presence of strains of different subtype C clades at about the same time point in Gondar. Moreover, some of the larger clusters dated back to the 1980s but transmissions within clusters have been ongoing up till end of the study period. Besides being associated with more sequences and larger clusters, the C-EA clade sequences were also associated with clustering of HIVDR sequences. One cluster was associated with the G190A mutation and showed onward transmissions at high rate.

CONCLUSION

TDR was detected in 6.0% of the sequenced samples and confirmed pervious reports that the two subtype C clades, C-EA and C'-ET, are common in Ethiopia. Moreover, the findings indicated an increased diversity in the epidemic as well as differences in transmission clusters sizes of the different clades and association with resistance mutations. These findings provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

Early Presence of HIV-1 Subtype C in Washington, D.C

The presence of non-B HIV subtypes in the USA has been documented during the epidemic, although the timing of early introductions of different subtypes remains uncertain. Subtype C, the most common HIV variant worldwide, was first reported in the USA in 1996-97, after subtype C had expanded greatly in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we report a patient with subtype C infection acquired by mother-to-child transmission, born in the USA in 1990 to a Washington, D.C. resident who never traveled outside the USA, demonstrating that subtype C was present in the USA much earlier. Comparative analysis of the sequence from this patient and subtype C sequences in the USA and elsewhere suggest multiple independent introductions of this subtype into the USA have taken place, many of which are traced to sub-Saharan or East Africa. These data indicate subtype C HIV was already present in the USA years earlier than previously reported, and during the early period of subtype C expansion.

HIV-1 diversity among young women in rural South Africa: HPTN 068

BACKGROUND

South Africa has one of the highest rates of HIV-1 (HIV) infection world-wide, with the highest rates among young women. We analyzed the molecular epidemiology and evolutionary history of HIV in young women attending high school in rural South Africa.

METHODS

Samples were obtained from the HPTN 068 randomized controlled trial, which evaluated the effect of cash transfers for school attendance on HIV incidence in women aged 13-20 years (Mpumalanga province, 2011-2015). Plasma samples from HIV-infected participants were analyzed using the ViroSeq HIV-1 Genotyping assay. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using 200 pol gene study sequences and 2,294 subtype C reference sequences from South Africa. Transmission clusters were identified using Cluster Picker and HIV-TRACE, and were characterized using demographic and other epidemiological data. Phylodynamic analyses were performed using the BEAST software.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 2,533 young women who were followed through their expected high school graduation date (main study); some participants had a post-study assessment (follow-up study). Two-hundred-twelve of 2,533 enrolled young women had HIV infection. HIV pol sequences were obtained for 94% (n = 201/212) of the HIV-infected participants. All but one of the sequences were HIV-1 subtype C; the non-C subtype sequence was excluded from further analysis. Median pairwise genetic distance between the subtype C sequences was 6.4% (IQR: 5.6-7.2). Overall, 26% of study sequences fell into 21 phylogenetic clusters with 2-6 women per cluster. Thirteen (62%) clusters included women who were HIV-infected at enrollment. Clustering was not associated with study arm, demographic or other epidemiological factors. The estimated date of origin of HIV subtype C in the study population was 1958 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 1931-1980), and the median estimated substitution rate among study pol sequences was 1.98x10-3 (95% HPD: 1.15x10-3-2.81x10-3) per site per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Phylogenetic analysis suggests that multiple HIV subtype C sublineages circulate among school age girls in South Africa. There were no substantive differences in the molecular epidemiology of HIV between control and intervention arms in the HPTN 068 trial.

Tracking external introductions of HIV using phylodynamics reveals a major source of infections in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Despite increasing access to antiretrovirals, HIV incidence in rural KwaZulu-Natal remains among the highest ever reported in Africa. While many epidemiological factors have been invoked to explain such high incidence, widespread human mobility and viral movement suggest that transmission between communities may be a major source of new infections. High cross-community transmission rates call into question how effective increasing the coverage of antiretroviral therapy locally will be at preventing new infections, especially if many new cases arise from external introductions. To help address this question, we use a phylodynamic model to reconstruct epidemic dynamics and estimate the relative contribution of local transmission versus external introductions to overall incidence in KwaZulu-Natal from HIV-1 phylogenies. By comparing our results with population-based surveillance data, we show that we can reliably estimate incidence from viral phylogenies once viral movement in and out of the local population is accounted for. Our analysis reveals that early epidemic dynamics were largely driven by external introductions. More recently, we estimate that 35 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20-60%) of new infections arise from external introductions. These results highlight the growing need to consider larger-scale regional transmission dynamics when designing and testing prevention strategies.

Divergent HIV-1 strains (CRF92_C2U and CRF93_cpx) co-circulating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Phylogenetic insights on the early evolutionary history of subtype C

Molecular epidemiological studies revealed that the epicenter of the HIV pandemic was Kinshasa, the capital city of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in Central Africa. All known subtypes and numerous complex recombinant strains co-circulate in the DRC. Moreover, high intra-subtype diversity has been also documented. During two previous surveys on HIV-1 antiretroviral drug resistance in the DRC, we identified two divergent subtype C lineages in the protease and partial reverse transcriptase gene regions. We sequenced eight near full-length genomes and classified them using bootscanning and likelihood-based phylogenetic analyses. Four strains are more closely related to subtype C although within the range of inter sub-subtype distances. However, these strains also have small unclassified fragments and thus were named CRF92_C2U. Another strain is a unique recombinant of CRF92_C2U with an additional small unclassified fragment and a small divergent subtype A fragment. The three remaining strains represent a complex mosaic named CRF93_cpx. CRF93_cpx have two fragments of divergent subtype C sequences, which are not conventional subtype C nor the above described C2, and multiple divergent subtype A-like fragments. We then inferred the time-scaled evolutionary history of subtype C following a Bayesian approach and a partitioned analysis using major genomic regions. CRF92_C2U and CRF93_cpx had the most recent common ancestor with conventional subtype C around 1932 and 1928, respectively. A Bayesian demographic reconstruction corroborated that the subtype C transition to a faster phase of exponential growth occurred during the 1950s. Our analysis showed considerable differences between the newly discovered early-divergent strains and the conventional subtype C and therefore suggested that this virus has been diverging in humans for several decades before the HIV/M diversity boom in the 1950s.

HIV-1 full-genome phylogenetics of generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: impact of missing nucleotide characters in next-generation sequences

To characterize HIV-1 transmission dynamics in regions where the burden of HIV-1 is greatest, the “Phylogenetics and Networks for Generalised HIV Epidemics in Africa” consortium (PANGEA-HIV) is sequencing full-genome viral isolates from across sub-Saharan Africa. We report the first 3,985 PANGEA-HIV consensus sequences from four cohort sites (Rakai Community Cohort Study, n = 2,833; MRC/UVRI Uganda, n = 701; Mochudi Prevention Project, n = 359; Africa Health Research Institute Resistance Cohort, n = 92). Next-generation sequencing success rates varied: more than 80% of the viral genome from the gag to the nef genes could be determined for all sequences from South Africa, 75% of sequences from Mochudi, 60% of sequences from MRC/UVRI Uganda, and 22% of sequences from Rakai. Partial sequencing failure was primarily associated with low viral load, increased for amplicons closer to the 3′ end of the genome, was not associated with subtype diversity except HIV-1 subtype D, and remained significantly associated with sampling location after controlling for other factors. We assessed the impact of the missing data patterns in PANGEA-HIV sequences on phylogeny reconstruction in simulations. We found a threshold in terms of taxon sampling below which the patchy distribution of missing characters in next-generation sequences (NGS) has an excess negative impact on the accuracy of HIV-1 phylogeny reconstruction, which is attributable to tree reconstruction artifacts that accumulate when branches in viral trees are long. The large number of PANGEA-HIV sequences provides unprecedented opportunities for evaluating HIV-1 transmission dynamics across sub-Saharan Africa and identifying prevention opportunities. Molecular epidemiological analyses of these data must proceed cautiously because sequence sampling remains below the identified threshold and a considerable negative impact of missing characters on phylogeny reconstruction is expected.