Online prediction model based on support vector machine

Time-sensitive prediction of NO2 concentration in China using an ensemble machine learning model from multi-source data

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) poses a critical potential risk to environmental quality and public health. A reliable machine learning (ML) forecasting framework will be useful to provide valuable information to support government decision-making. Based on the data from 1609 air quality monitors across China from 2014-2020, this study designed an ensemble ML model by integrating multiple types of spatial-temporal variables and three sub-models for time-sensitive prediction over a wide range. The ensemble ML model incorporates a residual connection to the gated recurrent unit (GRU) network and adopts the advantage of Transformer, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and GRU with residual connection network, resulting in a 4.1%±1.0% lower root mean square error over XGBoost for the test results. The ensemble model shows great prediction performance, with coefficient of determination of 0.91, 0.86, and 0.77 for 1-hr, 3-hr, and 24-hr averages for the test results, respectively. In particular, this model has achieved excellent performance with low spatial uncertainty in Central, East, and North China, the major site-dense zones. Through the interpretability analysis based on the Shapley value for different temporal resolutions, we found that the contribution of atmospheric chemical processes is more important for hourly predictions compared with the daily scale predictions, while the impact of meteorological conditions would be ever-prominent for the latter. Compared with existing models for different spatiotemporal scales, the present model can be implemented at any air quality monitoring station across China to facilitate achieving rapid and dependable forecast of NO2, which will help developing effective control policies.

Drinking Water Quality Assessment Using a Fuzzy Inference System Method: A Case Study of Rome (Italy)

Drinking water quality assessment is a major issue today, as it is crucial to supply safe drinking water to ensure the well-being of society. Predicting drinking water quality helps strengthen water management and fight water pollution; technologies and practices for drinking water quality assessment are continuously improving; artificial intelligence methods prove their efficiency in this domain. This research effort seeks a hierarchical fuzzy model for predicting drinking water quality in Rome (Italy). The Mamdani fuzzy inference system is applied with different defuzzification methods. The proposed model includes three fuzzy intermediate models and one fuzzy final model. Each model consists of three input parameters and 27 fuzzy rules. A water quality assessment model is developed with a dataset that considers nine parameters (alkalinity, hardness, pH, Ca, Mg, fluoride, sulphate, nitrates, and iron). These nine parameters of drinking water are anticipated to be within the acceptable limits set to protect human health. Fuzzy-logic-based methods have been demonstrated to be appropriate to address uncertainty and subjectivity in drinking water quality assessment; they are an effective method for managing complicated, uncertain water systems and predicting drinking water quality. The proposed method can provide an effective solution for complex systems; this method can be modified easily to improve performance.

Predicting COVID-19 community infection relative risk with a Dynamic Bayesian Network

As COVID-19 continues to impact the United States and the world at large it is becoming increasingly necessary to develop methods which predict local scale spread of the disease. This is especially important as newer variants of the virus are likely to emerge and threaten community spread. We develop a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to predict community-level relative risk of COVID-19 infection at the census tract scale in the U.S. state of Indiana. The model incorporates measures of social and environmental vulnerability-including environmental determinants of COVID-19 infection-into a spatial temporal prediction of infection relative risk 1-month into the future. The DBN significantly outperforms five other modeling techniques used for comparison and which are typically applied in spatial epidemiological applications. The logic behind the DBN also makes it very well-suited for spatial-temporal prediction and for "what-if" analysis. The research results also highlight the need for further research using DBN-type approaches that incorporate methods of artificial intelligence into modeling dynamic processes, especially prominent within spatial epidemiologic applications.

Comparison of Nitrogen Dioxide Predictions During a Pandemic and Non-pandemic Scenario in the City of Madrid using a Convolutional LSTM Network

Traditionally, machine learning technologies with the methods and capabilities available, combined with a geospatial dimension, can perform predictive analyzes of air quality with greater accuracy. However, air pollution is influenced by many external factors, one of which has recently been caused by the restrictions applied to curb the relentless advance of COVID-19. These sudden changes in air quality levels can negatively influence current forecasting models. This work compares air pollution forecasts during a pandemic and non-pandemic period under the same conditions. The ConvLSTM algorithm was applied to predict the concentration of nitrogen dioxide using data from the air quality and meteorological stations in Madrid. The proposed model was applied for two scenarios: pandemic (January–June 2020) and non-pandemic (January–June 2019), each with sub-scenarios based on time granularity (1-h, 12-h, 24-h and 48-h) and combination of features. The Root Mean Square Error was taken as the estimation metric, and the results showed that the proposed method outperformed a reference model, and the feature selection technique significantly improved the overall accuracy.

Bidirectional convolutional LSTM for the prediction of nitrogen dioxide in the city of Madrid

Nitrogen dioxide is one of the pollutants with the most significant health effects. Advanced information on its concentration in the air can help to monitor and control further consequences more effectively, while also making it easier to apply preventive and mitigating measures. Machine learning technologies with available methods and capabilities, combined with the geospatial dimension, can perform predictive analyses with higher accuracy and, as a result, can serve as a supportive tool for productive management. One of the most advanced machine learning algorithms, Bidirectional convolutional LSTM, is being used in ongoing work to predict the concentration of nitrogen dioxide. The model has been validated to perform more accurate spatiotemporal analysis based on the integration of temporal and geospatial factors. The analysis was carried out according to two scenarios developed on the basis of selected features using data from the city of Madrid for the periods January-June 2019 and January-June 2020. Evaluation of the model's performance was conducted using the Root Mean Square Error and the Mean Absolute Error which emphasises the superiority of the proposed model over the reference models. In addition, the significance of a feature selection technique providing improved accuracy was underlined. In terms of execution time, due to the complexity of the Bidirectional convolutional LSTM architecture, convergence and generalisation of the data took longer, resulting in the superiority of the reference models.

Influence of Anomalies on the Models for Nitrogen Oxides and Ozone Series

Nowadays, observing, recording, and modeling the dynamics of atmospheric pollutants represent actual study areas given the effects of pollution on the population and ecosystems. The existence of aberrant values may influence reports on air quality when they are based on average values over a period. This may also influence the quality of models, which are further used in forecasting. Therefore, correct data collection and analysis is necessary before modeling. This study aimed to detect aberrant values in a nitrogen oxide concentration series recorded in the interval 1 January–8 June 2016 in Timisoara, Romania, and retrieved from the official reports of the National Network for Monitoring the Air Quality, Romania. Four methods were utilized, including the interquartile range (IQR), isolation forest, local outlier factor (LOF) methods, and the generalized extreme studentized deviate (GESD) test. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Generalized Regression Neural Networks (GRNN), and hybrid ARIMA-GRNN models were built for the series before and after the removal of aberrant values. The results show that the first approach provided a good model (from a statistical viewpoint) for the series after the anomalies removal. The best model was obtained by the hybrid ARIMA-GRNN. For example, for the raw NO2 series, the ARIMA model was not statistically validated, whereas, for the series without outliers, the ARIMA(1,1,1) was validated. The GRNN model for the raw series was able to learn the data well: R2 = 76.135%, the correlation between the actual and predicted values (rap) was 0.8778, the mean standard errors (MSE) = 0.177, the mean absolute error MAE = 0.2839, and the mean absolute percentage error MAPE = 9.9786. Still, on the test set, the results were worse: MSE = 1.5101, MAE = 0.8175, rap = 0.4482. For the series without outliers, the model was able to learn the data in the training set better than for the raw series (R2 = 0.996), whereas, on the test set, the results were not very good (R2 = 0.473). The performances of the hybrid ARIMA–GRNN on the initial series were not satisfactory on the test (the pattern of the computed values was almost linear) but were very good on the series without outliers (the correlation between the predicted values on the test set was very close to 1). The same was true for the models built for O3.

Attention-Based Distributed Deep Learning Model for Air Quality Forecasting

Air quality forecasting has become an essential factor in facilitating sustainable development worldwide. Several countries have implemented monitoring stations to collect air pollution particle data and meteorological information using parameters such as hourly timespans. This research focuses on unravelling a new framework for air quality prediction worldwide and features Busan, South Korea as its model city. The paper proposes the application of an attention-based convolutional BiLSTM autoencoder model. The proposed deep learning model has been trained on a distributed framework, referred to data parallelism, to forecast the intensity of particle pollution (PM2.5 and PM10). The algorithm automatically learns the intrinsic correlation among the particle pollution in different locations. Each location’s meteorological and traffic data is extensively exploited to improve the model’s performance. The model has been trained using air quality particle data and car traffic information. The traffic information is obtained by a device which counts cars passing a specific area through the YOLO algorithm, and then sends the data to a stacked deep autoencoder to be encoded alongside the meteorological data before the final prediction. In addition, multiple one-dimensional CNN layers are used to obtain the local spatial features jointly with a stacked attention-based BiLSTM layer to figure out how air quality particles are correlated in space and time. The evaluation of the new attention-based convolutional BiLSTM autoencoder model was derived from data collected and retrieved from comprehensive experiments conducted in South Korea. The results not only show that the framework outperforms the previous models both on short- and long-term predictions but also indicate that traffic information can improve the accuracy of air quality forecasting. For instance, during PM2.5 prediction, the proposed attention-based model obtained the lowest MAE (5.02 and 22.59, respectively, for short-term and long-term prediction), RMSE (7.48 and 28.02) and SMAPE (17.98 and 39.81) among all the models, which indicates strong accuracy between observed and predicted values. It was also found that the newly proposed model had the lowest average training time compared to the baseline algorithms. Furthermore, the proposed framework was successfully deployed in a cloud server in order to provide future air quality information in real time and when needed.

Determination of Water Depth in Ports Using Satellite Data Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

One of the fundamental maintenance tasks of ports is the periodic dredging of them. This is necessary to guarantee a minimum draft that will enable ships to access ports safely. The determination of bathymetries is the instrument that determines the need for dredging and permits an analysis of the behavior of the port bottom over time, in order to achieve adequate water depth. Satellite data processing to predict environmental parameters is used increasingly. Based on satellite data and using different machine learning algorithm techniques, this study has sought to estimate the seabed in ports, taking into account the fact that the port areas are strongly anthropized areas. The algorithms that were used were Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and the Multi-Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). The study was carried out in the ports of Candás and Luarca in the Principality of Asturias. In order to validate the results obtained, data was acquired in situ by using a single beam provided. The results show that this type of methodology can be used to estimate coastal bathymetry. However, when deciding which system was best, priority was given to simplicity and robustness. The results of the SVM and RF algorithms outperform those of the MARS. RF performs better in Candás with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.27 cm, whereas SVM performs better in Luarca with a mean absolute error of 0.37 cm. It is suggested that this approach is suitable as a simpler and more cost-effective rough resolution alternative, for estimating the depth of turbid water in ports, than single-beam sonar, which is labor-intensive and polluting.

Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Dredging from Satellite Images: A Case Study in the Principality of Asturias (Spain)

One of the fundamental tasks in the maintenance of port operations is periodic dredging. These dredging operations facilitate the elimination of sediments that the coastal dynamics introduce. Dredging operations are increasingly restrictive and costly due to environmental requirements. Understanding the condition of the seabed before and after dredging is essential. In addition, determining how the seabed has behaved in recent years is important to consider when planning future dredging operations. In order to analyze the behavior of sediment transport and the changes to the seabed due to sedimentation, studies of littoral dynamics are conducted to model the deposition of sediments. Another methodology that could be used to analyze the real behavior of sediments would be to study and compare port bathymetries collected periodically. The problem with this methodology is that it requires numerous bathymetric surveys to produce a sufficiently significant analysis. This study provides an effective solution for obtaining a dense time series of bathymetry mapping using satellite data, and enables the past behavior of the seabed to be examined. The methodology proposed in this work uses Sentinel-2A (10 m resolution) satellite images to obtain historical bathymetric series by the development of a random forest algorithm. From these historical bathymetric series, it is possible to determine how the seabed has behaved and how the entry of sediments into the study area occurs. This methodology is applied in the Port of Luarca (Principality of Asturias), obtaining satellite images and extracting successive bathymetry mapping utilizing the random forest algorithm. This work reveals how once the dock was dredged, the sediments were redeposited and the seabed recovered its level prior to dredging in less than 2 months.

Features Exploration from Datasets Vision in Air Quality Prediction Domain

Air pollution and its consequences are negatively impacting on the world population and the environment, which converts the monitoring and forecasting air quality techniques as essential tools to combat this problem. To predict air quality with maximum accuracy, along with the implemented models and the quantity of the data, it is crucial also to consider the dataset types. This study selected a set of research works in the field of air quality prediction and is concentrated on the exploration of the datasets utilised in them. The most significant findings of this research work are: (1) meteorological datasets were used in 94.6% of the papers leaving behind the rest of the datasets with a big difference, which is complemented with others, such as temporal data, spatial data, and so on; (2) the usage of various datasets combinations has been commenced since 2009; and (3) the utilisation of open data have been started since 2012, 32.3% of the studies used open data, and 63.4% of the studies did not provide the data.

Chemometrics for environmental monitoring: a review

Environmental monitoring is necessary to ensure the overall health and conservation of an ecosystem. However, ecosystems (e.g. air, water, soil), are complex, involving numerous processes (both native and external), inputs, contaminants, and living organisms. As such, monitoring an environmental system is not a trivial task. The data obtained from natural systems is often multifaceted and convoluted, as a multitude of inputs can be intertwined within the matrix of the information obtained as part of a study. This means that trends and important results can be easily overlooked by conventional and single dimensional data analysis protocols. Recently, chemometric methods have emerged as a powerful method for maximizing the details contained within a chemical data set. Specifically, chemometrics refers to the use of mathematical and statistical analysis methods to evaluate chemical data, beyond univariant analysis. This type of analysis can provide a quantitative description of environmental measurements, while also having the capacity to reveal previously overlooked trends in data sets. Applying chemometrics to environmental data allows us to identify and describe the inter-relationship of environmental drivers, sources of contamination, and their potential impact upon the environment. This review aims to provide a detailed understanding of chemometric techniques, how they are currently used in environmental monitoring, and how these techniques can be used to improve current practices. An enhanced ability to monitor environmental conditions and to predict trends would be greatly beneficial to government and research agencies in their ability to develop environmental policies and analytical procedures.

Distributed Deep Features Extraction Model for Air Quality Forecasting

Several studies in environmental engineering emphasize the importance of air quality forecasting for sustainable development around the world. In this paper, we studied a new approach for air quality forecasting in Busan metropolitan city. We proposed a convolutional Bi-Directional Long-Short Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) autoencoder model trained using a distributed architecture to predict the concentration of the air quality particles (PM2.5 and PM10). The proposed deep learning model can automatically learn the intrinsic correlation among the pollutants in different location. Also, the meteorological and the pollution gas information at each location are fully utilized, which is beneficial for the performance of the model. We used multiple one-dimension convolutional neural network (CNN) layers to extract the local spatial features and a stacked Bi-LSTM layer to learn the spatiotemporal correlation of air quality particles. In addition, we used a stacked deep autoencoder to encode the essential transformation patterns of the pollution gas and the meteorological data, since they are very important for providing useful information that can significantly improve the prediction of the air quality particles. Finally, in order to reduce the training time and the resource consumption, we used a distributed deep leaning approach called data parallelism, which has never been used to tackle the problem of air quality forecasting. We evaluated our approach with extensive experiments based on the data collected in Busan metropolitan city. The results reveal the superiority of our framework over ten baseline models and display how the distributed deep learning model can significantly improve the training time and even the prediction accuracy.

A perspective on the development of gas-phase chemical mechanisms for Eulerian air quality models

An essential component of a three-dimensional air quality model is its gas-phase mechanism. We present an overview of the necessary atmospheric chemistry and a discussion of the types of mechanisms with some specific examples such as the Master Chemical Mechanism, the Carbon Bond, SAPRC and the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM). The first versions of the Carbon Bond and SAPRC mechanisms were developed through a hierarchy of chemical species approach that relied heavily on chemical environmental chamber data. Now a new approach has been proposed where the first step is to develop a highly detailed explicit mechanism such as the Master Chemical Mechanism and the second step is to test the detailed explicit mechanism against laboratory and field data. Finally, the detailed mechanism is condensed for use in a three-dimensional air quality model. Here it is argued that the development of highly detailed explicit mechanisms is very valuable for research, but we suggest that combining the hierarchy of chemical species and the detailed explicit mechanism approaches would be better than either alone.Implication: Many gas-phase mechanisms are available for urban, regional and global air quality modeling. A "hierarchy of chemical species approach," relying heavily on smog-chamber data was used for the development of the early series of mechanisms. Now the development of large, explicit master mechanisms that may be condensed is a significant, trend. However, a continuing problem with air quality mechanism development is due to the high complexity of atmospheric chemistry and the current availability of laboratory measurements. This problem requires a balance between completeness and speculation so that models maintain their utility for policymakers.

Prediction of Ambient PM2.5 Concentrations Using a Correlation Filtered Spatial-Temporal Long Short-Term Memory Model

Due to the increasingly serious air pollution problem, air quality prediction has been an important approach for air pollution control and prevention. Many prediction methods have been proposed in recent years to improve the prediction accuracy. However, most of the existing methods either did not consider the spatial relationships between monitoring stations or overlooked the strength of the correlation. Excluding the spatial correlation or including too much weak spatial inputs could influence the modeling and reduce the prediction accuracy. To overcome the limitation, this paper proposes a correlation filtered spatial-temporal long short-term memory (CFST-LSTM) model for air quality prediction. The model is designed based on the original LSTM model and is equipped with a spatial-temporal filter (STF) layer. This layer not only takes into account the spatial influence between stations, but also can extract highly correlated sequential data and drop weaker ones. To evaluate the proposed CFST-LSTM model, hourly PM2.5 concentration data of California are collected and preprocessed. Several experiments are conducted. The experimental results show that the CFST-LSTM model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and has great generalization.

Predicting ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: A hybrid remote sensing and machine learning approach

An accurate estimation of PM_2.5 (fine particulate matters with diameters ≤ 2.5 μm) concentration is critical for health risk assessment and generating air pollution control strategies. In this study, a hybrid remote sensing and machine learning approach, named RSRF model is proposed to estimate daily ground-level PM_2.5 concentrations, which integrates Random Forest (RF), one of machine learning (ML) models, and aerosol optical depth (AOD), one of remote sensing (RS) products. The proposed RSRF model provides an opportunity for an adequate characterization of real-time spatiotemporal PM_2.5 distributions at uninhabited places and complex surfaces. It also offers advantages in handling complicated non-linear relationships among a large number of meteorological, environmental and air pollutant factors, as well as ever-increasing environmental data sets. The applicability of the proposed RSRF model is tested in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH region) during 2015-2017. Deep Blue (DB) AOD from Aqua-retrieved Collection 6.1 (C_61) aerosol products of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is validated with Aerosol Robotic Network. The validation results indicate C_61 DB AOD has a high correlation with ground based AOD in the BTH region. The proposed RSRF model performed well in characterizing spatiotemporal variations of annual and seasonal PM_2.5 concentrations. It not only is useful to quantify the relationships between PM_2.5 and relevant factors such as DB AOD, meteorological and air pollutant variables, but also can provide decision support for air pollution control at a regional environment during haze periods.

LaSVM-based big data learning system for dynamic prediction of air pollution in Tehran

Due to critical impacts of air pollution, prediction and monitoring of air quality in urban areas are important tasks. However, because of the dynamic nature and high spatio-temporal variability, prediction of the air pollutant concentrations is a complex spatio-temporal problem. Distribution of pollutant concentration is influenced by various factors such as the historical pollution data and weather conditions. Conventional methods such as the support vector machine (SVM) or artificial neural networks (ANN) show some deficiencies when huge amount of streaming data have to be analyzed for urban air pollution prediction. In order to overcome the limitations of the conventional methods and improve the performance of urban air pollution prediction in Tehran, a spatio-temporal system is designed using a LaSVM-based online algorithm. Pollutant concentration and meteorological data along with geographical parameters are continually fed to the developed online forecasting system. Performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the prediction results of the Air Quality Index (AQI) with those of a traditional SVM algorithm. Results show an outstanding increase of speed by the online algorithm while preserving the accuracy of the SVM classifier. Comparison of the hourly predictions for next coming 24 h, with those of the measured pollution data in Tehran pollution monitoring stations shows an overall accuracy of 0.71, root mean square error of 0.54 and coefficient of determination of 0.81. These results are indicators of the practical usefulness of the online algorithm for real-time spatial and temporal prediction of the urban air quality.

Kernel association for classification and prediction: a survey

Kernel association (KA) in statistical pattern recognition used for classification and prediction have recently emerged in a machine learning and signal processing context. This survey outlines the latest trends and innovations of a kernel framework for big data analysis. KA topics include offline learning, distributed database, online learning, and its prediction. The structural presentation and the comprehensive list of references are geared to provide a useful overview of this evolving field for both specialists and relevant scholars.

A novel hybrid forecasting model for PM₁₀ and SO₂ daily concentrations

Air-quality forecasting in urban areas is difficult because of the uncertainties in describing both the emission and meteorological fields. The use of incomplete information in the training phase restricts practical air-quality forecasting. In this paper, we propose a hybrid artificial neural network and a hybrid support vector machine, which effectively enhance the forecasting accuracy of an artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) by revising the error term of the traditional methods. The hybrid methodology can be described in two stages. First, we applied the ANN or SVM forecasting system with historical data and exogenous parameters, such as meteorological variables. Then, the forecasting target was revised by the Taylor expansion forecasting model using the residual information of the error term in the previous stage. The innovation involved in this approach is that it sufficiently and validly utilizes the useful residual information on an incomplete input variable condition. The proposed method was evaluated by experiments using a 2-year dataset of daily PM₁₀ (particles with a diameter of 10 μm or less) concentrations and SO₂ (sulfur dioxide) concentrations from four air pollution monitoring stations located in Taiyuan, China. The theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrated that the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model is very promising.

Online prediction model based on the SVD-KPCA method

This paper proposes a new method for online identification of a nonlinear system modelled on Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). The proposed SVD-KPCA method uses the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique to update the principal components. Then we use the Reduced Kernel Principal Component Analysis (RKPCA) to approach the principal components which represent the observations selected by the KPCA method.