Thickness network features for prognostic applications in dementia

Computational limits to the legibility of the imaged human brain

Our knowledge of the organisation of the human brain at the population-level is yet to translate into power to predict functional differences at the individual-level, limiting clinical applications and casting doubt on the generalisability of inferred mechanisms. It remains unknown whether the difficulty arises from the absence of individuating biological patterns within the brain, or from limited power to access them with the models and compute at our disposal. Here we comprehensively investigate the resolvability of such patterns with data and compute at unprecedented scale. Across 23 810 unique participants from UK Biobank, we systematically evaluate the predictability of 25 individual biological characteristics, from all available combinations of structural and functional neuroimaging data. Over 4526 GPU*hours of computation, we train, optimize, and evaluate out-of-sample 700 individual predictive models, including fully-connected feed-forward neural networks of demographic, psychological, serological, chronic disease, and functional connectivity characteristics, and both uni- and multi-modal 3D convolutional neural network models of macro- and micro-structural brain imaging. We find a marked discrepancy between the high predictability of sex (balanced accuracy 99.7%), age (mean absolute error 2.048 years, R2 0.859), and weight (mean absolute error 2.609Kg, R2 0.625), for which we set new state-of-the-art performance, and the surprisingly low predictability of other characteristics. Neither structural nor functional imaging predicted an individual's psychology better than the coincidence of common chronic disease (p < 0.05). Serology predicted chronic disease (p < 0.05) and was best predicted by it (p < 0.001), followed by structural neuroimaging (p < 0.05). Our findings suggest either more informative imaging or more powerful models will be needed to decipher individual level characteristics from the human brain. We make our models and code openly available.

Asymptomatic carotid stenosis is associated with both edge and network reconfigurations identified by single-subject cortical thickness networks

Background and purpose

Patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis, even without stroke, are at high risk for cognitive impairment, and the neuroanatomical basis remains unclear. Using a novel edge-centric structural connectivity (eSC) analysis from individualized single-subject cortical thickness networks, we aimed to examine eSC and network measures in severe (> 70%) asymptomatic carotid stenosis (SACS).

Methods

Twenty-four SACS patients and 24 demographically- and comorbidities-matched controls were included, and structural MRI and multidomain cognitive data were acquired. Individual eSC was estimated via the Manhattan distances of pairwise cortical thickness histograms.

Results

In the eSC analysis, SACS patients showed longer interhemispheric but shorter intrahemispheric Manhattan distances seeding from left lateral temporal regions; in network analysis the SACS patients had a decreased system segregation paralleling with white matter hyperintensity burden and recall memory. Further network-based statistic analysis identified several eSC and subgraph features centred around the Perisylvian regions that predicted silent lesion load and cognitive tests.

Conclusion

We conclude that SACS exhibits abnormal eSC and a less-optimized trade-off between physical cost and network segregation, providing a reference and perspective for identifying high-risk individuals.

Investigating the temporal pattern of neuroimaging-based brain age estimation as a biomarker for Alzheimer's Disease related neurodegeneration

Neuroimaging-based brain-age estimation via machine learning has emerged as an important new approach for studying brain aging. The difference between one's estimated brain age and chronological age, the brain age gap (BAG), has been proposed as an Alzheimer's Disease (AD) biomarker. However, most past studies on the BAG have been cross-sectional. Quantifying longitudinal changes in an individual's BAG temporal pattern would likely improve prediction of AD progression and clinical outcome based on neurophysiological changes. To fill this gap, our study conducted predictive modeling using a large neuroimaging dataset with up to 8 years of follow-up to examine the temporal patterns of the BAG's trajectory and how it varies by subject-level characteristics (sex, APOEɛ4 carriership) and disease status. Specifically, we explored the pattern and rate of change in BAG over time in individuals who remain stable with normal cognition or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), as well as individuals who progress to clinical AD. Combining multimodal imaging data in a support vector regression model to estimate brain age yielded improved performance over single modality. Multilevel modeling results showed the BAG followed a linear increasing trajectory with a significantly faster rate in individuals with MCI who progressed to AD compared to cognitively normal or MCI individuals who did not progress. The dynamic changes in the BAG during AD progression were further moderated by sex and APOEɛ4 carriership. Our findings demonstrate the BAG as a potential biomarker for understanding individual specific temporal patterns related to AD progression.

Early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease using machine learning: a multi-diagnostic, generalizable approach

BACKGROUND

Early and accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is essential for disease management and therapeutic choices that can delay disease progression. Machine learning (ML) approaches have been extensively used in attempts to develop algorithms for reliable early diagnosis of AD, although clinical usefulness, interpretability, and generalizability of the classifiers across datasets and MRI protocols remain limited.

METHODS

We report a multi-diagnostic and generalizable approach for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD diagnosis using structural MRI and ML. Classifiers were trained and tested using subjects from the AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (n = 570) and the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) project database (n = 531). Several classifiers are compared and combined using voting for a decision. Additionally, we report tests of generalizability across datasets and protocols (IR-SPGR and MPRAGE), the impact of using graph theory measures on diagnostic classification performance, the relative importance of different brain regions on classification for better interpretability, and an evaluation of the potential for clinical applicability of the classifier.

RESULTS

Our "healthy controls (HC) vs. AD" classifier trained and tested on the combination of ADNI and OASIS datasets obtained a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 90.6% and a Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.811. Our "HC vs. MCI vs. AD" classifier trained and tested on the ADNI dataset obtained a 62.1% BAC (33.3% being the by-chance cut-off) and 0.438 MCC. Hippocampal features were the strongest contributors to the classification decisions (approx. 25-45%), followed by temporal (approx. 13%), cingulate, and frontal regions (approx. 8-13% each), which is consistent with our current understanding of AD and its progression. Classifiers generalized well across both datasets and protocols. Finally, using graph theory measures did not improve classification performance.

CONCLUSIONS

In sum, we present a diagnostic tool for MCI and AD trained using baseline scans and a follow-up diagnosis regardless of progression, which is multi-diagnostic, generalizable across independent data sources and acquisition protocols, and with transparently reported performance. Rated as potentially clinically applicable, our tool may be clinically useful to inform diagnostic decisions in dementia, if successful in real-world prospective clinical trials.

Individual-specific networks for prediction modelling – A scoping review of methods

Background

Recent advances in biotechnology enable the acquisition of high-dimensional data on individuals, posing challenges for prediction models which traditionally use covariates such as clinical patient characteristics. Alternative forms of covariate representations for the features derived from these modern data modalities should be considered that can utilize their intrinsic interconnection. The connectivity information between these features can be represented as an individual-specific network defined by a set of nodes and edges, the strength of which can vary from individual to individual. Global or local graph-theoretical features describing the network may constitute potential prognostic biomarkers instead of or in addition to traditional covariates and may replace the often unsuccessful search for individual biomarkers in a high-dimensional predictor space.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review to identify, collate and critically appraise the state-of-art in the use of individual-specific networks for prediction modelling in medicine and applied health research, published during 2000–2020 in the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus and Embase.

Results

Our scoping review revealed the main application areas namely neurology and pathopsychology, followed by cancer research, cardiology and pathology (N = 148). Network construction was mainly based on Pearson correlation coefficients of repeated measurements, but also alternative approaches (e.g. partial correlation, visibility graphs) were found. For covariates measured only once per individual, network construction was mostly based on quantifying an individual’s contribution to the overall group-level structure. Despite the multitude of identified methodological approaches for individual-specific network inference, the number of studies that were intended to enable the prediction of clinical outcomes for future individuals was quite limited, and most of the models served as proof of concept that network characteristics can in principle be useful for prediction.

Conclusion

The current body of research clearly demonstrates the value of individual-specific network analysis for prediction modelling, but it has not yet been considered as a general tool outside the current areas of application. More methodological research is still needed on well-founded strategies for network inference, especially on adequate network sparsification and outcome-guided graph-theoretical feature extraction and selection, and on how networks can be exploited efficiently for prediction modelling.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01544-6.

Potential Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Trials for Alzheimer’s Disease

Clinical trials for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) face multiple challenges, such as the high screen failure rate and the even allocation of heterogeneous participants. Artificial intelligence (AI), which has become a potent tool of modern science with the expansion in the volume, variety, and velocity of biological data, offers promising potential to address these issues in AD clinical trials. In this review, we introduce the current status of AD clinical trials and the topic of machine learning. Then, a comprehensive review is focused on the potential applications of AI in the steps of AD clinical trials, including the prediction of protein and MRI AD biomarkers in the prescreening process during eligibility assessment and the likelihood stratification of AD subjects into rapid and slow progressors in randomization. Finally, this review provides challenges, developments, and the future outlook on the integration of AI into AD clinical trials.

Machine Learning Based Multimodal Neuroimaging Genomics Dementia Score for Predicting Future Conversion to Alzheimer's Disease

BACKGROUND

The increasing availability of databases containing both magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and genetic data allows researchers to utilize multimodal data to better understand the characteristics of dementia of Alzheimer's type (DAT).

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to develop and analyze novel biomarkers that can help predict the development and progression of DAT.

METHODS

We used feature selection and ensemble learning classifier to develop an image/genotype-based DAT score that represents a subject's likelihood of developing DAT in the future. Three feature types were used: MRI only, genetic only, and combined multimodal data. We used a novel data stratification method to better represent different stages of DAT. Using a pre-defined 0.5 threshold on DAT scores, we predicted whether a subject would develop DAT in the future.

RESULTS

Our results on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database showed that dementia scores using genetic data could better predict future DAT progression for currently normal control subjects (Accuracy = 0.857) compared to MRI (Accuracy = 0.143), while MRI can better characterize subjects with stable mild cognitive impairment (Accuracy = 0.614) compared to genetics (Accuracy = 0.356). Combining MRI and genetic data showed improved classification performance in the remaining stratified groups.

CONCLUSION

MRI and genetic data can contribute to DAT prediction in different ways. MRI data reflects anatomical changes in the brain, while genetic data can detect the risk of DAT progression prior to the symptomatic onset. Combining information from multimodal data appropriately can improve prediction performance.

Transfer Learning for Alzheimer's Disease through Neuroimaging Biomarkers: A Systematic Review

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a remarkable challenge for healthcare in the 21st century. Since 2017, deep learning models with transfer learning approaches have been gaining recognition in AD detection, and progression prediction by using neuroimaging biomarkers. This paper presents a systematic review of the current state of early AD detection by using deep learning models with transfer learning and neuroimaging biomarkers. Five databases were used and the results before screening report 215 studies published between 2010 and 2020. After screening, 13 studies met the inclusion criteria. We noted that the maximum accuracy achieved to date for AD classification is 98.20% by using the combination of 3D convolutional networks and local transfer learning, and that for the prognostic prediction of AD is 87.78% by using pre-trained 3D convolutional network-based architectures. The results show that transfer learning helps researchers in developing a more accurate system for the early diagnosis of AD. However, there is a need to consider some points in future research, such as improving the accuracy of the prognostic prediction of AD, exploring additional biomarkers such as tau-PET and amyloid-PET to understand highly discriminative feature representation to separate similar brain patterns, managing the size of the datasets due to the limited availability.

Machine learning methods for predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease dementia: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

An increase in lifespan in our society is a double-edged sword that entails a growing number of patients with neurocognitive disorders, Alzheimer's disease being the most prevalent. Advances in medical imaging and computational power enable new methods for the early detection of neurocognitive disorders with the goal of preventing or reducing cognitive decline. Computer-aided image analysis and early detection of changes in cognition is a promising approach for patients with mild cognitive impairment, sometimes a prodromal stage of Alzheimer's disease dementia.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review following PRISMA guidelines of studies where machine learning was applied to neuroimaging data in order to predict whether patients with mild cognitive impairment might develop Alzheimer's disease dementia or remain stable. After removing duplicates, we screened 452 studies and selected 116 for qualitative analysis.

RESULTS

Most studies used magnetic resonance image (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) data but also magnetoencephalography. The datasets were mainly extracted from the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI) database with some exceptions. Regarding the algorithms used, the most common was support vector machine with a mean accuracy of 75.4%, but convolutional neural networks achieved a higher mean accuracy of 78.5%. Studies combining MRI and PET achieved overall better classification accuracy than studies that only used one neuroimaging technique. In general, the more complex models such as those based on deep learning, combined with multimodal and multidimensional data (neuroimaging, clinical, cognitive, genetic, and behavioral) achieved the best performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the performance of the different methods still has room for improvement, the results are promising and this methodology has a great potential as a support tool for clinicians and healthcare professionals.

Predicting MCI to AD Conversation Using Integrated sMRI and rs-fMRI: Machine Learning and Graph Theory Approach

BACKGROUND

Graph theory and machine learning have been shown to be effective ways of classifying different stages of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Most previous studies have only focused on inter-subject classification with single-mode neuroimaging data. However, whether this classification can truly reflect the changes in the structure and function of the brain region in disease progression remains unverified. In the current study, we aimed to evaluate the classification framework, which combines structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging (sMRI) and resting-state functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (rs-fMRI) metrics, to distinguish mild cognitive impairment non-converters (MCInc)/AD from MCI converters (MCIc) by using graph theory and machine learning.

METHODS

With the intra-subject (MCInc vs. MCIc) and inter-subject (MCIc vs. AD) design, we employed cortical thickness features, structural brain network features, and sub-frequency (full-band, slow-4, slow-5) functional brain network features for classification. Three feature selection methods [random subset feature selection algorithm (RSFS), minimal redundancy maximal relevance (mRMR), and sparse linear regression feature selection algorithm based on stationary selection (SS-LR)] were used respectively to select discriminative features in the iterative combinations of MRI and network measures. Then support vector machine (SVM) classifier with nested cross-validation was employed for classification. We also compared the performance of multiple classifiers (Random Forest, K-nearest neighbor, Adaboost, SVM) and verified the reliability of our results by upsampling.

RESULTS

We found that in the classifications of MCIc vs. MCInc, and MCIc vs. AD, the proposed RSFS algorithm achieved the best accuracies (84.71, 89.80%) than the other algorithms. And the high-sensitivity brain regions found with the two classification groups were inconsistent. Specifically, in MCIc vs. MCInc, the high-sensitivity brain regions associated with both structural and functional features included frontal, temporal, caudate, entorhinal, parahippocampal, and calcarine fissure and surrounding cortex. While in MCIc vs. AD, the high-sensitivity brain regions associated only with functional features included frontal, temporal, thalamus, olfactory, and angular.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that our proposed method could effectively predict the conversion of MCI to AD, and the inconsistency of specific brain regions provides a novel insight for clinical AD diagnosis.

Cortical Thickness Estimation in Individuals With Cerebral Small Vessel Disease, Focal Atrophy, and Chronic Stroke Lesions

BACKGROUND

Regional changes to cortical thickness in individuals with neurodegenerative and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) can be estimated using specialized neuroimaging software. However, the presence of cerebral small vessel disease, focal atrophy, and cortico-subcortical stroke lesions, pose significant challenges that increase the likelihood of misclassification errors and segmentation failures.

PURPOSE

The main goal of this study was to examine a correction procedure developed for enhancing FreeSurfer's (FS's) cortical thickness estimation tool, particularly when applied to the most challenging MRI obtained from participants with chronic stroke and CVD, with varying degrees of neurovascular lesions and brain atrophy.

METHODS

In 155 CVD participants enrolled in the Ontario Neurodegenerative Disease Research Initiative (ONDRI), FS outputs were compared between a fully automated, unmodified procedure and a corrected procedure that accounted for potential sources of error due to atrophy and neurovascular lesions. Quality control (QC) measures were obtained from both procedures. Association between cortical thickness and global cognitive status as assessed by the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score was also investigated from both procedures.

RESULTS

Corrected procedures increased "Acceptable" QC ratings from 18 to 76% for the cortical ribbon and from 38 to 92% for tissue segmentation. Corrected procedures reduced "Fail" ratings from 11 to 0% for the cortical ribbon and 62 to 8% for tissue segmentation. FS-based segmentation of T1-weighted white matter hypointensities were significantly greater in the corrected procedure (5.8 mL vs. 15.9 mL, p < 0.001). The unmodified procedure yielded no significant associations with global cognitive status, whereas the corrected procedure yielded positive associations between MoCA total score and clusters of cortical thickness in the left superior parietal (p = 0.018) and left insula (p = 0.04) regions. Further analyses with the corrected cortical thickness results and MoCA subscores showed a positive association between left superior parietal cortical thickness and Attention (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that correction procedures which account for brain atrophy and neurovascular lesions can significantly improve FS's segmentation results and reduce failure rates, thus maximizing power by preventing the loss of our important study participants. Future work will examine relationships between cortical thickness, cerebral small vessel disease, and cognitive dysfunction due to neurodegenerative disease in the ONDRI study.

Differential Diagnosis of Frontotemporal Dementia, Alzheimer's Disease, and Normal Aging Using a Multi-Scale Multi-Type Feature Generative Adversarial Deep Neural Network on Structural Magnetic Resonance Images

Methods: Alzheimer's disease and Frontotemporal dementia are the first and third most common forms of dementia. Due to their similar clinical symptoms, they are easily misdiagnosed as each other even with sophisticated clinical guidelines. For disease-specific intervention and treatment, it is essential to develop a computer-aided system to improve the accuracy of their differential diagnosis. Recent advances in deep learning have delivered some of the best performance for medical image recognition tasks. However, its application to the differential diagnosis of AD and FTD pathology has not been explored. Approach: In this study, we proposed a novel deep learning based framework to distinguish between brain images of normal aging individuals and subjects with AD and FTD. Specifically, we combined the multi-scale and multi-type MRI-base image features with Generative Adversarial Network data augmentation technique to improve the differential diagnosis accuracy. Results: Each of the multi-scale, multitype, and data augmentation methods improved the ability for differential diagnosis for both AD and FTD. A 10-fold cross validation experiment performed on a large sample of 1,954 images using the proposed framework achieved a high overall accuracy of 88.28%. Conclusions: The salient contributions of this study are three-fold: (1) our experiments demonstrate that the combination of multiple structural features extracted at different scales with our proposed deep neural network yields superior performance than individual features; (2) we show that the use of Generative Adversarial Network for data augmentation could further improve the discriminant ability of the network regarding challenging tasks such as differentiating dementia sub-types; (3) and finally, we show that ensemble classifier strategy could make the network more robust and stable.

Using machine learning to quantify structural MRI neurodegeneration patterns of Alzheimer's disease into dementia score: Independent validation on 8,834 images from ADNI, AIBL, OASIS, and MIRIAD databases

Biomarkers for dementia of Alzheimer's type (DAT) are sought to facilitate accurate prediction of the disease onset, ideally predating the onset of cognitive deterioration. T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a commonly used neuroimaging modality for measuring brain structure in vivo, potentially providing information enabling the design of biomarkers for DAT. We propose a novel biomarker using structural MRI volume-based features to compute a similarity score for the individual's structural patterns relative to those observed in the DAT group. We employed ensemble-learning framework that combines structural features in most discriminative ROIs to create an aggregate measure of neurodegeneration in the brain. This classifier is trained on 423 stable normal control (NC) and 330 DAT subjects, where clinical diagnosis is likely to have the highest certainty. Independent validation on 8,834 unseen images from ADNI, AIBL, OASIS, and MIRIAD Alzheimer's disease (AD) databases showed promising potential to predict the development of DAT depending on the time-to-conversion (TTC). Classification performance on stable versus progressive mild cognitive impairment (MCI) groups achieved an AUC of 0.81 for TTC of 6 months and 0.73 for TTC of up to 7 years, achieving state-of-the-art results. The output score, indicating similarity to patterns seen in DAT, provides an intuitive measure of how closely the individual's brain features resemble the DAT group. This score can be used for assessing the presence of AD structural atrophy patterns in normal aging and MCI stages, as well as monitoring the progression of the individual's brain along with the disease course.

Prediction of clinical and biomarker conformed Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment from multi-feature brain structural MRI using age-correction from a large independent lifespan sample

Structural neuroimaging has been applied to the identification of individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, these methods are greatly impacted by age limiting their utility for detection of preclinical pathology. We built linear models for age based on multiple combined structural features using a large independent lifespan sample of 272 healthy adults across a wide age range from the Human Connectome Project Aging study. These models were then used to create a new support vector machine (SVM) training model in 136 AD and 268 control participants based on residues of fit from the expected age-effects relationship. Subsequent validation assessed the accuracy of the SVM model in new datasets. Finally, we applied the classifier to 276 individuals with MCI to evaluate prediction for early impairment and longitudinal cognitive change. The optimal 10-fold cross-validation accuracy was 93.07%, compared to 91.83% without age detrending. In the validation dataset, the classifier for AD obtained an accuracy of 84.85% (56/66), sensitivity of 85.36% (35/41) and specificity of 84% (21/25). Classification accuracy was improved when using the lifespan sample as opposed to the classification sample. Importantly, we observed cross-sectional greater AD specific biomarkers, as well as faster cognitive decline in MCI who were classified as more 'AD-like' (MCI-AD), and these effects were pronounced in individuals who were late MCI. The top five contributive features were volumes of left hippocampus, right hippocampus, left amygdala, the thickness of left and right middle temporal & parahippocampus gyrus. Linear detrending for age in SVM for combined structural features resulted in good performance for recognition of AD and AD-specific biomarkers, as well as prediction of MCI progression. Such procedures may be used in future work to enhance prediction in samples with atypical age distributions.

A comparison of resting state EEG and structural MRI for classifying Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the leading cause of dementia, accounting for 70% of cases worldwide. By 2050, dementia prevalence will have tripled, with most new cases occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a stage between healthy aging and dementia, marked by cognitive deficits that do not impair daily living. People with MCI are at increased risk of dementia, with an average progression rate of 39% within 5 years. There is urgent need for low-cost, accessible and objective methods to facilitate early dementia detection. Electroencephalography (EEG) has potential to address this need due to its low cost and portability. Here, we collected resting state EEG, structural MRI (sMRI) and rich neuropsychological data from older adults (55+ years) with AD, amnestic MCI (aMCI) and healthy controls (~60 per group). We evaluated a range of candidate EEG markers (i.e., frequency band power and functional connectivity) for AD and aMCI classification and compared their performance with sMRI. We also tested a combined EEG and cognitive classification model (using Mini-Mental State Examination; MMSE). sMRI outperformed resting state EEG at classifying AD (AUCs ​= ​1.00 vs 0.76, respectively). However, both EEG and sMRI were only moderately good at distinguishing aMCI from healthy aging (AUCs ​= ​0.67-0.73), and neither method achieved sensitivity above 70%. The addition of EEG to MMSE scores had no added benefit relative to MMSE scores alone. This is the first direct comparison of EEG and sMRI for classification of AD and aMCI.

Structural magnetic resonance imaging for the early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with mild cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to Alzheimer's disease is the symptomatic predementia phase of Alzheimer's disease dementia, characterised by cognitive and functional impairment not severe enough to fulfil the criteria for dementia. In clinical samples, people with amnestic MCI are at high risk of developing Alzheimer's disease dementia, with annual rates of progression from MCI to Alzheimer's disease estimated at approximately 10% to 15% compared with the base incidence rates of Alzheimer's disease dementia of 1% to 2% per year.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI versus the clinical follow-up diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia as a reference standard (delayed verification). To investigate sources of heterogeneity in accuracy, such as the use of qualitative visual assessment or quantitative volumetric measurements, including manual or automatic (MRI) techniques, or the length of follow-up, and age of participants. MRI was evaluated as an add-on test in addition to clinical diagnosis of MCI to improve early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI.

SEARCH METHODS

On 29 January 2019 we searched Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement's Specialised Register and the databases, MEDLINE, Embase, BIOSIS Previews, Science Citation Index, PsycINFO, and LILACS. We also searched the reference lists of all eligible studies identified by the electronic searches.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered cohort studies of any size that included prospectively recruited people of any age with a diagnosis of MCI. We included studies that compared the diagnostic test accuracy of baseline structural MRI versus the clinical follow-up diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia (delayed verification). We did not exclude studies on the basis of length of follow-up. We included studies that used either qualitative visual assessment or quantitative volumetric measurements of MRI to detect atrophy in the whole brain or in specific brain regions, such as the hippocampus, medial temporal lobe, lateral ventricles, entorhinal cortex, medial temporal gyrus, lateral temporal lobe, amygdala, and cortical grey matter.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Four teams of two review authors each independently reviewed titles and abstracts of articles identified by the search strategy. Two teams of two review authors each independently assessed the selected full-text articles for eligibility, extracted data and solved disagreements by consensus. Two review authors independently assessed the quality of studies using the QUADAS-2 tool. We used the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) model to fit summary ROC curves and to obtain overall measures of relative accuracy in subgroup analyses. We also used these models to obtain pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity when sufficient data sets were available.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 33 studies, published from 1999 to 2019, with 3935 participants of whom 1341 (34%) progressed to Alzheimer's disease dementia and 2594 (66%) did not. Of the participants who did not progress to Alzheimer's disease dementia, 2561 (99%) remained stable MCI and 33 (1%) progressed to other types of dementia. The median proportion of women was 53% and the mean age of participants ranged from 63 to 87 years (median 73 years). The mean length of clinical follow-up ranged from 1 to 7.6 years (median 2 years). Most studies were of poor methodological quality due to risk of bias for participant selection or the index test, or both. Most of the included studies reported data on the volume of the total hippocampus (pooled mean sensitivity 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 0.80); pooled mean specificity 0.71 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.77); 22 studies, 2209 participants). This evidence was of low certainty due to risk of bias and inconsistency. Seven studies reported data on the atrophy of the medial temporal lobe (mean sensitivity 0.64 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.73); mean specificity 0.65 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.76); 1077 participants) and five studies on the volume of the lateral ventricles (mean sensitivity 0.57 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.65); mean specificity 0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.70); 1077 participants). This evidence was of moderate certainty due to risk of bias. Four studies with 529 participants analysed the volume of the total entorhinal cortex and four studies with 424 participants analysed the volume of the whole brain. We did not estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity for the volume of these two regions because available data were sparse and heterogeneous. We could not statistically evaluate the volumes of the lateral temporal lobe, amygdala, medial temporal gyrus, or cortical grey matter assessed in small individual studies. We found no evidence of a difference between studies in the accuracy of the total hippocampal volume with regards to duration of follow-up or age of participants, but the manual MRI technique was superior to automatic techniques in mixed (mostly indirect) comparisons. We did not assess the relative accuracy of the volumes of different brain regions measured by MRI because only indirect comparisons were available, studies were heterogeneous, and the overall accuracy of all regions was moderate.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The volume of hippocampus or medial temporal lobe, the most studied brain regions, showed low sensitivity and specificity and did not qualify structural MRI as a stand-alone add-on test for an early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI. This is consistent with international guidelines, which recommend imaging to exclude non-degenerative or surgical causes of cognitive impairment and not to diagnose dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. In view of the low quality of most of the included studies, the findings of this review should be interpreted with caution. Future research should not focus on a single biomarker, but rather on combinations of biomarkers to improve an early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia.

Brain Connectivity Based Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease in Patients With Mild Cognitive Impairment Based on Multi-Modal Images

Structural and metabolic connectivity are advanced features that facilitate the diagnosis of patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Connectivity from a single imaging modality, however, did not show evident discriminative value in predicting MCI-to-AD conversion, possibly because the inter-modal information was not considered when quantifying the relationship between brain regions. Here we introduce a novel approach that extracts connectivity based on both structural and metabolic information to improve AD early diagnosis. Principal component analysis was performed on each imaging modality to extract the key discriminative patterns of each brain region in an independent auxiliary domain composed of AD and normal control (NC) subjects, which were then used to project the two subtypes of MCI to the low-dimensional space. The connectivity between each target brain region and all other regions was quantified via a multi-task regression model using the projected data. The prediction performance was evaluated in 75 stable MCI (sMCI) patients and 51 progressive MCI (pMCI) patients who converted to AD within 3 years. We achieved 79.37% accuracy, with 74.51% sensitivity and 82.67% specificity, in predicting MCI-to-AD progression, superior to other existing algorithms using either structural and metabolic connectivities alone or a combination thereof. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of multi-modal connectivity, serving as robust biomarker for early AD diagnosis.

Grant Report on PREDICT-ADFTD: Multimodal Imaging Prediction of AD/FTD and Differential Diagnosis

We report on the ongoing project "PREDICT-ADFTD: Multimodal Imaging Prediction of AD/FTD and Differential Diagnosis" describing completed and future work supported by this grant. This project is a multi-site, multi-study collaboration effort with research spanning seven sites across the US and Canada. The overall goal of the project is to study neurodegeneration within Alzheimer's Disease, Frontotemporal Dementia, and related neurodegenerative disorders, using a variety of brain imaging and computational techniques to develop methods for the early and accurate prediction of disease and its course. The overarching goal of the project is to develop the earliest and most accurate biomarker that can differentiate clinical diagnoses to inform clinical trials and patient care. In its third year, this project has already completed several projects to achieve this goal, focusing on (1) structural MRI (2) machine learning and (3) FDG-PET and multimodal imaging. Studies utilizing structural MRI have identified key features of underlying pathology by studying hippocampal deformation that is unique to clinical diagnosis and also post-mortem confirmed neuropathology. Several machine learning experiments have shown high classification accuracy in the prediction of disease based on Convolutional Neural Networks utilizing MRI images as input. In addition, we have also achieved high accuracy in predicting conversion to DAT up to five years in the future. Further, we evaluated multimodal models that combine structural and FDG-PET imaging, in order to compare the predictive power of multimodal to unimodal models. Studies utilizing FDG-PET have shown significant predictive ability in the prediction and progression of disease.

Effective feature learning and fusion of multimodality data using stage-wise deep neural network for dementia diagnosis

In this article, the authors aim to maximally utilize multimodality neuroimaging and genetic data for identifying Alzheimer's disease (AD) and its prodromal status, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), from normal aging subjects. Multimodality neuroimaging data such as MRI and PET provide valuable insights into brain abnormalities, while genetic data such as single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) provide information about a patient's AD risk factors. When these data are used together, the accuracy of AD diagnosis may be improved. However, these data are heterogeneous (e.g., with different data distributions), and have different number of samples (e.g., with far less number of PET samples than the number of MRI or SNPs). Thus, learning an effective model using these data is challenging. To this end, we present a novel three-stage deep feature learning and fusion framework, where deep neural network is trained stage-wise. Each stage of the network learns feature representations for different combinations of modalities, via effective training using the maximum number of available samples. Specifically, in the first stage, we learn latent representations (i.e., high-level features) for each modality independently, so that the heterogeneity among modalities can be partially addressed, and high-level features from different modalities can be combined in the next stage. In the second stage, we learn joint latent features for each pair of modality combination by using the high-level features learned from the first stage. In the third stage, we learn the diagnostic labels by fusing the learned joint latent features from the second stage. To further increase the number of samples during training, we also use data at multiple scanning time points for each training subject in the dataset. We evaluate the proposed framework using Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI) dataset for AD diagnosis, and the experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms other state-of-the-art methods.

Identification of Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment Using Networks Constructed Based on Multiple Morphological Brain Features

Structural brain markers are important for characterizing the pathology of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Here, we constructed a multifeature-based network (MFN) for each individual using a sparse linear regression performed on six types of morphological features to promote the structure-based autodiagnosis. The categorization performance of the MFN was evaluated in 165 normal control subjects, 221 patients with MCI, and 142 patients with AD. We achieved 96.42% and 96.37% accuracy, respectively, in distinguishing the patients with AD and MCI from the normal control subjects, and reasonable discrimination of the two disease cohorts (70.52%) and prediction of the MCI to AD progression (65.61%). The performance was further improved by combining the properties of the MFN with the morphological features. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the MFN in combination with morphological features obtained from single imaging modality, serving as robust biomarkers in the diagnosis of AD and MCI.

Multimodal and Multiscale Deep Neural Networks for the Early Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease using structural MR and FDG-PET images

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease where biomarkers for disease based on pathophysiology may be able to provide objective measures for disease diagnosis and staging. Neuroimaging scans acquired from MRI and metabolism images obtained by FDG-PET provide in-vivo measurements of structure and function (glucose metabolism) in a living brain. It is hypothesized that combining multiple different image modalities providing complementary information could help improve early diagnosis of AD. In this paper, we propose a novel deep-learning-based framework to discriminate individuals with AD utilizing a multimodal and multiscale deep neural network. Our method delivers 82.4% accuracy in identifying the individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who will convert to AD at 3 years prior to conversion (86.4% combined accuracy for conversion within 1-3 years), a 94.23% sensitivity in classifying individuals with clinical diagnosis of probable AD, and a 86.3% specificity in classifying non-demented controls improving upon results in published literature.

Development and validation of a novel dementia of Alzheimer's type (DAT) score based on metabolism FDG-PET imaging

Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) imaging based 3D topographic brain glucose metabolism patterns from normal controls (NC) and individuals with dementia of Alzheimer's type (DAT) are used to train a novel multi-scale ensemble classification model. This ensemble model outputs a FDG-PET DAT score (FPDS) between 0 and 1 denoting the probability of a subject to be clinically diagnosed with DAT based on their metabolism profile. A novel 7 group image stratification scheme is devised that groups images not only based on their associated clinical diagnosis but also on past and future trajectories of the clinical diagnoses, yielding a more continuous representation of the different stages of DAT spectrum that mimics a real-world clinical setting. The potential for using FPDS as a DAT biomarker was validated on a large number of FDG-PET images (N=2984) obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database taken across the proposed stratification, and a good classification AUC (area under the curve) of 0.78 was achieved in distinguishing between images belonging to subjects on a DAT trajectory and those images taken from subjects not progressing to a DAT diagnosis. Further, the FPDS biomarker achieved state-of-the-art performance on the mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to DAT conversion prediction task with an AUC of 0.81, 0.80, 0.77 for the 2, 3, 5 years to conversion windows respectively.

Multiscale deep neural network based analysis of FDG-PET images for the early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is one of the most common neurodegenerative diseases with a commonly seen prodromal mild cognitive impairment (MCI) phase where memory loss is the main complaint progressively worsening with behavior issues and poor self-care. However, not all individuals clinically diagnosed with MCI progress to AD. A fraction of subjects with MCI either progress to non-AD dementia or remain stable at the MCI stage without progressing to dementia. Although a curative treatment of AD is currently unavailable, it is extremely important to correctly identify the individuals in the MCI phase that will go on to develop AD so that they may benefit from a curative treatment when one becomes available in the near future. At the same time, it would be highly desirable to also correctly identify those in the MCI phase that do not have AD pathology so they may be spared from unnecessary pharmocologic interventions that, at best, may provide them no benefit, and at worse, could further harm them with adverse side-effects. Additionally, it may be easier and simpler to identify the cause of the cognitive impairment in these non-AD cases, and hence proper identification of prodromal AD will be of benefit to these individuals as well. Fluorodeoxy glucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) captures the metabolic activity of the brain, and this imaging modality has been reported to identify changes related to AD prior to the onset of structural changes. Prior work on designing classifier using FDG-PET imaging has been promising. Since deep-learning has recently emerged as a powerful tool to mine features and use them for accurate labeling of the group membership of given images, we propose a novel deep-learning framework using FDG-PET metabolism imaging to identify subjects at the MCI stage with presymptomatic AD and discriminate them from other subjects with MCI (non-AD / non-progressive). Our multiscale deep neural network obtained 82.51% accuracy of classification just using measures from a single modality (FDG-PET metabolism data) outperforming other comparable FDG-PET classifiers published in the recent literature.

Factors influencing accuracy of cortical thickness in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease

There is great value to use of structural neuroimaging in the assessment of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, to date, predictive value of structural imaging tend to range between 80% and 90% in accuracy and it is unclear why this is the case given that structural imaging should parallel the pathologic processes of AD. There is a possibility that clinical misdiagnosis relative to the gold standard pathologic diagnosis and/or additional brain pathologies are confounding factors contributing to reduced structural imaging classification accuracy. We examined potential factors contributing to misclassification of individuals with clinically diagnosed AD purely from cortical thickness measures. Correctly classified and incorrectly classified groups were compared across a range of demographic, biological, and neuropsychological data including cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers, amyloid imaging, white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume, cognitive, and genetic factors. Individual subject analyses suggested that at least a portion of the control individuals misclassified as AD from structural imaging additionally harbor substantial AD biomarker pathology and risk, yet are relatively resistant to cognitive symptoms, likely due to "cognitive reserve," and therefore clinically unimpaired. In contrast, certain clinical control individuals misclassified as AD from cortical thickness had increased WMH volume relative to other controls in the sample, suggesting that vascular conditions may contribute to classification accuracy from cortical thickness measures. These results provide examples of factors that contribute to the accuracy of structural imaging in predicting a clinical diagnosis of AD, and provide important information about considerations for future work aimed at optimizing structural based diagnostic classifiers for AD.

Assessing and tuning brain decoders: Cross-validation, caveats, and guidelines

Decoding, i.e. prediction from brain images or signals, calls for empirical evaluation of its predictive power. Such evaluation is achieved via cross-validation, a method also used to tune decoders' hyper-parameters. This paper is a review on cross-validation procedures for decoding in neuroimaging. It includes a didactic overview of the relevant theoretical considerations. Practical aspects are highlighted with an extensive empirical study of the common decoders in within- and across-subject predictions, on multiple datasets -anatomical and functional MRI and MEG- and simulations. Theory and experiments outline that the popular "leave-one-out" strategy leads to unstable and biased estimates, and a repeated random splits method should be preferred. Experiments outline the large error bars of cross-validation in neuroimaging settings: typical confidence intervals of 10%. Nested cross-validation can tune decoders' parameters while avoiding circularity bias. However we find that it can be favorable to use sane defaults, in particular for non-sparse decoders.

Using Individualized Brain Network for Analyzing Structural Covariance of the Cerebral Cortex in Alzheimer's Patients

Cortical thinning patterns in Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been widely reported through conventional regional analysis. In addition, the coordinated variance of cortical thickness in different brain regions has been investigated both at the individual and group network levels. In this study, we aim to investigate network architectural characteristics of a structural covariance network (SCN) in AD, and further to show that the structural covariance connectivity becomes disorganized across the brain regions in AD, while the normal control (NC) subjects maintain more clustered and consistent coordination in cortical atrophy variations. We generated SCNs directly from T1-weighted MR images of individual patients using surface-based cortical thickness data, with structural connectivity defined as similarity in cortical thickness within different brain regions. Individual SCNs were constructed using morphometric data from the Samsung Medical Center (SMC) dataset. The structural covariance connectivity showed higher clustering than randomly generated networks, as well as similar minimum path lengths, indicating that the SCNs are “small world.” There were significant difference between NC and AD group in characteristic path lengths (z = −2.97, p < 0.01) and small-worldness values (z = 4.05, p < 0.01). Clustering coefficients in AD was smaller than that of NC but there was no significant difference (z = 1.81, not significant). We further observed that the AD patients had significantly disrupted structural connectivity. We also show that the coordinated variance of cortical thickness is distributed more randomly from one region to other regions in AD patients when compared to NC subjects. Our proposed SCN may provide surface-based measures for understanding interaction between two brain regions with co-atrophy of the cerebral cortex due to normal aging or AD. We applied our method to the AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data to show consistency in results with the SMC dataset.

Prediction of Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease Using MRI and Structural Network Features

Optimized magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features and abnormalities of brain network architectures may allow earlier detection and accurate prediction of the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). In this study, we proposed a classification framework to distinguish MCI converters (MCIc) from MCI non-converters (MCInc) by using a combination of FreeSurfer-derived MRI features and nodal features derived from the thickness network. At the feature selection step, we first employed sparse linear regression with stability selection, for the selection of discriminative features in the iterative combinations of MRI and network measures. Subsequently the top K features of available combinations were selected as optimal features for classification. To obtain unbiased results, support vector machine (SVM) classifiers with nested cross validation were used for classification. The combination of 10 features including those from MRI and network measures attained accuracies of 66.04, 76.39, 74.66, and 73.91% for mixed conversion time, 6, 12, and 18 months before diagnosis of probable AD, respectively. Analysis of the diagnostic power of different time periods before diagnosis of probable AD showed that short-term prediction (6 and 12 months) achieved more stable and higher AUC scores compared with long-term prediction (18 months), with K-values from 1 to 30. The present results suggest that meaningful predictors composed of MRI and network measures may offer the possibility for early detection of progression from MCI to AD.

Novel ThickNet features for the discrimination of amnestic MCI subtypes

BACKGROUND

Amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is considered to be a transitional stage between healthy aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD), and consists of two subtypes: single-domain aMCI (sd-aMCI) and multi-domain aMCI (md-aMCI). Individuals with md-aMCI are found to exhibit higher risk of conversion to AD. Accurate discrimination among aMCI subtypes (sd- or md-aMCI) and controls could assist in predicting future decline.

METHODS

We apply our novel thickness network (ThickNet) features to discriminate md-aMCI from healthy controls (NC). ThickNet features are extracted from the properties of a graph constructed from inter-regional co-variation of cortical thickness. We fuse these ThickNet features using multiple kernel learning to form a composite classifier. We apply the proposed ThickNet classifier to discriminate between md-aMCI and NC, sd-aMCI and NC and; and also between sd-aMCI and md-aMCI, using baseline T1 MR scans from the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study.

RESULTS

ThickNet classifier achieved an area under curve (AUC) of 0.74, with 70% sensitivity and 69% specificity in discriminating md-aMCI from healthy controls. The same classifier resulted in AUC = 0.67 and 0.67 for sd-aMCI/NC and sd-aMCI/md-aMCI classification experiments respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed ThickNet classifier demonstrated potential for discriminating md-aMCI from controls, and in discriminating sd-aMCI from md-aMCI, using cortical features from baseline MRI scan alone. Use of the proposed novel ThickNet features demonstrates significant improvements over previous experiments using cortical thickness alone. This result may offer the possibility of early detection of Alzheimer's disease via improved discrimination of aMCI subtypes.