Relating multi-sequence longitudinal intensity profiles and clinical covariates in incident multiple sclerosis lesions

Bayesian modeling of dependence in brain connectivity data

Brain connectivity studies often refer to brain areas as graph nodes and connections between nodes as edges, and aim to identify neuropsychiatric phenotype-related connectivity patterns. When performing group-level brain connectivity alternation analyses, it is critical to model the dependence structure between multivariate connectivity edges to achieve accurate and efficient estimates of model parameters. However, specifying and estimating dependencies between connectivity edges presents formidable challenges because (i) the dimensionality of parameters in the covariance matrix is high (of the order of the fourth power of the number of nodes); (ii) the covariance between a pair of edges involves four nodes with spatial location information; and (iii) the dependence structure between edges can be related to unknown network topological structures. Existing methods for large covariance/precision matrix regularization and spatial closeness-based dependence structure specification/estimation models may not fully address the complexity and challenges. We develop a new Bayesian nonparametric model that unifies information from brain network areas (nodes), connectivity (edges), and covariance between edges by constructing the function of covariance matrix based on the underlying network topological structure. We perform parameter estimation using an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We apply our method to resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 60 subjects of a schizophrenia study and simulated data to demonstrate the performance of our method.

Estimation of Multiple Sclerosis lesion age on magnetic resonance imaging

We introduce the first-ever statistical framework for estimating the age of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) lesions from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Estimating lesion age is an important step when studying the longitudinal behavior of MS lesions and can be used in applications such as studying the temporal dynamics of chronic active MS lesions. Our lesion age estimation models use first order radiomic features over a lesion derived from conventional T1 (T1w) and T2 weighted (T2w) and fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR), T1w with gadolinium contrast (T1w+c), and Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping (QSM) MRI sequences as well as demographic information. For this analysis, we have a total of 32 patients with 53 new lesions observed at 244 time points. A one or two step random forest model for lesion age is fit on a training set using a lesion volume cutoff of 15 mm³ or 50 mm³ . We explore the performance of nine different modeling scenarios that included various combinations of the MRI sequences and demographic information and a one or two step random forest models, as well as simpler models that only uses the mean radiomic feature from each MRI sequence. The best performing model on a validation set is a model that uses a two-step random forest model on the radiomic features from all of the MRI sequences with demographic information using a lesion volume cutoff of 50 mm³ . This model has a mean absolute error of 7.23 months (95% CI: [6.98, 13.43]) and a median absolute error of 5.98 months (95% CI: [5.26, 13.25]) in the validation set. For this model, the predicted age and actual age have a statistically significant association (p-value <0.001) in the validation set.

Experimental design and sample size considerations in longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging-based biomarker detection for multiple sclerosis

Several modeling approaches have been developed to quantify differences in multiple sclerosis lesion evolution on magnetic resonance imaging to identify the effect of treatment on disease progression. These studies have limited clinical applicability due to onerous scan frequency and lengthy study duration. Efficient methods are needed to reduce the required sample size, study duration, and sampling frequency in longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging studies. We develop a data-driven approach to identify parameters of study design for evaluation of longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging biomarkers of multiple sclerosis lesion evolution. Our design strategies are considerably shorter than those described in previous studies, thus having the potential to lower costs of clinical trials. From a dataset of 36 multiple sclerosis patients with at least six monthly magnetic resonance imagings, we extracted new lesions and performed principal component analysis to estimate a biomarker that recapitulated lesion recovery. We tested the effect of multiple sclerosis disease modifying therapy on the lesion evolution index in three experimental designs and calculated sample sizes needed to appropriately power studies. Our proposed methods can be used to calculate required sample size and scan frequency in observational studies of multiple sclerosis disease progression as well as in designing clinical trials to find effects of treatment on multiple sclerosis lesion evolution.

A Spatio-Temporal Model for Longitudinal Image-on-Image Regression

Neurologists and radiologists often use magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the management of subjects with multiple sclerosis (MS) because it is sensitive to inflammatory and demyelinative changes in the white matter of the brain and spinal cord. Two conventional modalities used for identifying lesions are T1-weighted (T1) and T2-weighted fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) imaging, which are used clinically and in research studies. Magnetization transfer ratio (MTR), which is available only in research settings, is an advanced MRI modality that has been used extensively for measuring disease-related demyelination both in white matter lesions as well across normal-appearing white matter. Acquiring MTR is not standard in clinical practice, due to the increased scan time and cost. Hence, prediction of MTR based on the modalities T1 and FLAIR could have great impact on the availability of these promising measures for improved patient management. We propose a spatio-temporal regression model for image response and image predictors that are acquired longitudinally, with images being co-registered within the subject but not across subjects. The model is additive, with the response at a voxel being dependent on the available covariates not only through the current voxel but also on the imaging information from the voxels within a neighboring spatial region as well as their temporal gradients. We propose a dynamic Bayesian estimation procedure that updates the parameters of the subject-specific regression model as data accummulates. To bypass the computational challenges associated with a Bayesian approach for high-dimensional imaging data, we propose an approximate Bayesian inference technique. We assess the model fitting and the prediction performance using longitudinally acquired MRI images from 46 MS patients.

Imaging outcome measures of neuroprotection and repair in MS: A consensus statement from NAIMS

OBJECTIVE

To summarize current and emerging imaging techniques that can be used to assess neuroprotection and repair in multiple sclerosis (MS), and to provide a consensus opinion on the potential utility of each technique in clinical trial settings.

METHODS

Clinicians and scientists with expertise in the use of MRI in MS convened in Toronto, Canada, in November 2016 at a North American Imaging in Multiple Sclerosis (NAIMS) Cooperative workshop meeting. The discussion was compiled into a manuscript and circulated to all NAIMS members in attendance. Edits and feedback were incorporated until all authors were in agreement.

RESULTS

A wide spectrum of imaging techniques and analysis methods in the context of specific study designs were discussed, with a focus on the utility and limitations of applying each technique to assess neuroprotection and repair. Techniques were discussed under specific themes, and included conventional imaging, magnetization transfer ratio, diffusion tensor imaging, susceptibility-weighted imaging, imaging cortical lesions, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, PET, advanced diffusion imaging, sodium imaging, multimodal techniques, imaging of special regions, statistical considerations, and study design.

CONCLUSIONS

Imaging biomarkers of neuroprotection and repair are an unmet need in MS. There are a number of promising techniques with different strengths and limitations, and selection of a specific technique will depend on a number of factors, notably the question the trial seeks to answer. Ongoing collaborative efforts will enable further refinement and improved methods to image the effect of novel therapeutic agents that exert benefit in MS predominately through neuroprotective and reparative mechanisms.

An Automated Statistical Technique for Counting Distinct Multiple Sclerosis Lesions

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Lesion load is a common biomarker in multiple sclerosis, yet it has historically shown modest association with clinical outcome. Lesion count, which encapsulates the natural history of lesion formation and is thought to provide complementary information, is difficult to assess in patients with confluent (ie, spatially overlapping) lesions. We introduce a statistical technique for cross-sectionally counting pathologically distinct lesions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

MR imaging was used to assess the probability of a lesion at each location. The texture of this map was quantified using a novel technique, and clusters resembling the center of a lesion were counted. Validity compared with a criterion standard count was demonstrated in 60 subjects observed longitudinally, and reliability was determined using 14 scans of a clinically stable subject acquired at 7 sites.

RESULTS

The proposed count and the criterion standard count were highly correlated (r = 0.97, P < .001) and not significantly different (t₅₉ = -.83, P = .41), and the variability of the proposed count across repeat scans was equivalent to that of lesion load. After accounting for lesion load and age, lesion count was negatively associated (t₅₈ = -2.73, P < .01) with the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Average lesion size had a higher association with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (r = 0.35, P < .01) than lesion load (r = 0.10, P = .44) or lesion count (r = -.12, P = .36) alone.

CONCLUSIONS

This study introduces a novel technique for counting pathologically distinct lesions using cross-sectional data and demonstrates its ability to recover obscured longitudinal information. The proposed count allows more accurate estimation of lesion size, which correlated more closely with disability scores than either lesion load or lesion count alone.

MIMoSA: An Automated Method for Intermodal Segmentation Analysis of Multiple Sclerosis Brain Lesions

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is crucial for in vivo detection and characterization of white matter lesions (WMLs) in multiple sclerosis. While WMLs have been studied for over two decades using MRI, automated segmentation remains challenging. Although the majority of statistical techniques for the automated segmentation of WMLs are based on single imaging modalities, recent advances have used multimodal techniques for identifying WMLs. Complementary modalities emphasize different tissue properties, which help identify interrelated features of lesions.

METHODS

Method for Inter-Modal Segmentation Analysis (MIMoSA), a fully automatic lesion segmentation algorithm that utilizes novel covariance features from intermodal coupling regression in addition to mean structure to model the probability lesion is contained in each voxel, is proposed. MIMoSA was validated by comparison with both expert manual and other automated segmentation methods in two datasets. The first included 98 subjects imaged at Johns Hopkins Hospital in which bootstrap cross-validation was used to compare the performance of MIMoSA against OASIS and LesionTOADS, two popular automatic segmentation approaches. For a secondary validation, a publicly available data from a segmentation challenge were used for performance benchmarking.

RESULTS

In the Johns Hopkins study, MIMoSA yielded average Sørensen-Dice coefficient (DSC) of .57 and partial AUC of .68 calculated with false positive rates up to 1%. This was superior to performance using OASIS and LesionTOADS. The proposed method also performed competitively in the segmentation challenge dataset.

CONCLUSION

MIMoSA resulted in statistically significant improvements in lesion segmentation performance compared with LesionTOADS and OASIS, and performed competitively in an additional validation study.

Dice Overlap Measures for Objects of Unknown Number: Application to Lesion Segmentation

The Dice overlap ratio is commonly used to evaluate the performance of image segmentation algorithms. While Dice overlap is very useful as a standardized quantitative measure of segmentation accuracy in many applications, it offers a very limited picture of segmentation quality in complex segmentation tasks where the number of target objects is not known a priori, such as the segmentation of white matter lesions or lung nodules. While Dice overlap can still be used in these applications, segmentation algorithms may perform quite differently in ways not reflected by differences in their Dice score. Here we propose a new set of evaluation techniques that offer new insights into the behavior of segmentation algorithms. We illustrate these techniques with a case study comparing two popular multiple sclerosis (MS) lesion segmentation algorithms: OASIS and LesionTOADS.

A LAG FUNCTIONAL LINEAR MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF MAGNETIZATION TRANSFER RATIO IN MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS LESIONS

We propose a lag functional linear model to predict a response using multiple functional predictors observed at discrete grids with noise. Two procedures are proposed to estimate the regression parameter functions: (1) an approach that ensures smoothness for each value of time using generalized cross-validation; and (2) a global smoothing approach using a restricted maximum likelihood framework. Numerical studies are presented to analyze predictive accuracy in many realistic scenarios. The methods are employed to estimate a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based measure of tissue damage (the magnetization transfer ratio, or MTR) in multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions, a disease that causes damage to the myelin sheaths around axons in the central nervous system. Our method of estimation of MTR within lesions is useful retrospectively in research applications where MTR was not acquired, as well as in clinical practice settings where acquiring MTR is not currently part of the standard of care. The model facilitates the use of commonly acquired imaging modalities to estimate MTR within lesions, and outperforms cross-sectional models that do not account for temporal patterns of lesion development and repair.

PREVAIL: Predicting Recovery through Estimation and Visualization of Active and Incident Lesions

Objective

The goal of this study was to develop a model that integrates imaging and clinical information observed at lesion incidence for predicting the recovery of white matter lesions in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients.

Methods

Demographic, clinical, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data were obtained from 60 subjects with MS as part of a natural history study at the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke. A total of 401 lesions met the inclusion criteria and were used in the study. Imaging features were extracted from the intensity-normalized T₁-weighted (T₁w) and T₂-weighted sequences as well as magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) sequence acquired at lesion incidence. T₁w and MTR signatures were also extracted from images acquired one-year post-incidence. Imaging features were integrated with clinical and demographic data observed at lesion incidence to create statistical prediction models for long-term damage within the lesion.

Validation

The performance of the T₁w and MTR predictions was assessed in two ways: first, the predictive accuracy was measured quantitatively using leave-one-lesion-out cross-validated (CV) mean-squared predictive error. Then, to assess the prediction performance from the perspective of expert clinicians, three board-certified MS clinicians were asked to individually score how similar the CV model-predicted one-year appearance was to the true one-year appearance for a random sample of 100 lesions.

Results

The cross-validated root-mean-square predictive error was 0.95 for normalized T₁w and 0.064 for MTR, compared to the estimated measurement errors of 0.48 and 0.078 respectively. The three expert raters agreed that T₁w and MTR predictions closely resembled the true one-year follow-up appearance of the lesions in both degree and pattern of recovery within lesions.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that by using only information from a single visit at incidence, we can predict how a new lesion will recover using relatively simple statistical techniques. The potential to visualize the likely course of recovery has implications for clinical decision-making, as well as trial enrichment.

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A model for predicting degree and pattern of MS lesion tissue recovery is proposed.

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The model relies solely on MR images at lesion incidence and patient information.

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Predictions performed well when rated for accuracy by expert MS clinicians.

Removing inter-subject technical variability in magnetic resonance imaging studies

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) intensities are acquired in arbitrary units, making scans non-comparable across sites and between subjects. Intensity normalization is a first step for the improvement of comparability of the images across subjects. However, we show that unwanted inter-scan variability associated with imaging site, scanner effect, and other technical artifacts is still present after standard intensity normalization in large multi-site neuroimaging studies. We propose RAVEL (Removal of Artificial Voxel Effect by Linear regression), a tool to remove residual technical variability after intensity normalization. As proposed by SVA and RUV [Leek and Storey, 2007, 2008, Gagnon-Bartsch and Speed, 2012], two batch effect correction tools largely used in genomics, we decompose the voxel intensities of images registered to a template into a biological component and an unwanted variation component. The unwanted variation component is estimated from a control region obtained from the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), where intensities are known to be unassociated with disease status and other clinical covariates. We perform a singular value decomposition (SVD) of the control voxels to estimate factors of unwanted variation. We then estimate the unwanted factors using linear regression for every voxel of the brain and take the residuals as the RAVEL-corrected intensities. We assess the performance of RAVEL using T1-weighted (T1-w) images from more than 900 subjects with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), as well as healthy controls from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. We compare RAVEL to two intensity-normalization-only methods: histogram matching and White Stripe. We show that RAVEL performs best at improving the replicability of the brain regions that are empirically found to be most associated with AD, and that these regions are significantly more present in structures impacted by AD (hippocampus, amygdala, parahippocampal gyrus, enthorinal area, and fornix stria terminals). In addition, we show that the RAVEL-corrected intensities have the best performance in distinguishing between MCI subjects and healthy subjects using the mean hippocampal intensity (AUC=67%), a marked improvement compared to results from intensity normalization alone (AUC=63% and 59% for histogram matching and White Stripe, respectively). RAVEL is promising for many other imaging modalities.