Challenges and potential solutions in the development of COVID-19 pandemic control measures

The influence of quadratic Lévy noise on the dynamic of an SIC contagious illness model: New framework, critical comparison and an application to COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) case

This study concentrates on the analysis of a stochastic SIC epidemic system with an enhanced and general perturbation. Given the intricacy of some impulses caused by external disturbances, we integrate the quadratic Lévy noise into our model. We assort the long-run behavior of a perturbed SIC epidemic model presented in the form of a system of stochastic differential equations driven by second-order jumps. By ameliorating the hypotheses and using some new analytical techniques, we find the exact threshold value between extinction and ergodicity (persistence) of our system. The idea and analysis used in this paper generalize the work of N. T. Dieu et al. (2020), and offer an innovative approach to dealing with other random population models. Comparing our results with those of previous studies reveals that quadratic jump-diffusion has no impact on the threshold value, but it remarkably influences the dynamics of the infection and may worsen the pandemic situation. In order to illustrate this comparison and confirm our analysis, we perform numerical simulations with some real data of COVID-19 in Morocco. Furthermore, we arrive at the following results: (i) the time average of the different classes depends on the intensity of the noise (ii) the quadratic noise has a negative effect on disease duration (iii) the stationary density function of the population abruptly changes its shape at some values of the noise intensity. Mathematics Subject Classification 2020: 34A26; 34A12; 92D30; 37C10; 60H30; 60H10.

Interferon-alpha position in combating with COVID-19: A systematic review

The newborn coronaivus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic has become the foremost concern of health system worldwide. Interferon typeI (IFN‐I) are among the well‐known antiviruses. Hence IFN‐α have gained much attention as a treatment for COVID‐19 recently. To sum up the efficiency of IFN‐α against COVID‐19, we searched PubMed, SCOPUS, and EMBASE, from the date of genesis to the 1st of October 2020. Discharge from hospital and virus clearance considered as primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. We compared the aforementioned outcomes of patients treated with standard care protocol and the patients treated with IFN‐α in addition to standard care protocol. Out of 356 identified records, 14 studies were subjected for full‐text screening. Finally, a systematic review was performed with inclusion of five studies. Majority of the participants were males (ranged from 43.50% to 90.0%). We found that time of viral clearance and polymerase chain reaction negative (days) in most studies were decreased in the INF‐α + standard care group. The mean days of virus's clearance in INF‐α group and standard group reported 27.3 and 32.43. Likewise, the average days of hospitalization was found also lower in INF‐α group (18.55 vs. 24.36). This study provides a stand to conclude that early administration of INF‐α may be accounted as a promising treatment of COVID‐19.