Prediction of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk among community residents in Shanghai, China - a comparative analysis of risk algorithms

The association of triglyceride-glucose index and related parameters with hypertension and cardiovascular risk: a cross-sectional study

The objective of this study was to investigate the association between triglyceride-glucose index (TyG) and related parameters (TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, TyG-WHR, and TyG-WHtR) with hypertension and cardiovascular risk. Additionally, the study aimed to compare the performance of these parameters in identifying patients with hypertension and high cardiovascular risk and determine appropriate indicators for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. Residents from a community in Beijing, China, who underwent health examinations at a regional hospital between December 2011 and August 2012, were recruited. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the association between each parameter with hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to compare the predictive ability of each parameter in identifying people with hypertension or high cardiovascular risk. A total of 16,834 participants were included. After adjusting for confounders, the highest quartile groups of TyG and related parameters showed a significantly increased risk of hypertension compared to the lowest quartile groups. Among the parameters, TyG-WC exhibited the highest diagnostic efficacy for hypertension [area under the curve (AUC): 0.665, 95% CI: 0.656-0.673] followed by TyG-WHtR, TyG-BMI, TyG-WHR, and TyG index. Similarly, the highest quartile groups of each parameter demonstrated significantly increased risks of high cardiovascular risk compared to the lowest quartile groups. TyG-WHR performed best in distinguishing participants with high cardiovascular risk (AUC: 0.718, 95% CI: 0.710-0.726) followed by TyG-WC, TyG-WHtR, TyG-BMI, and TyG index. In conclusion, TyG-related parameters had independent associations with hypertension and cardiovascular risk. TyG-WHR exhibited the highest efficacy in distinguishing participants with high cardiovascular risk, which might contribute to the primary prevention of CVD.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factor control of high atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in Guangzhou, China

Background

Identifying individuals at high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and implementing targeted prevention strategies might be the key to reducing the heavy disease burden in China. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factor control among individuals with high 10-year ASCVD risk in Guangzhou, China.

Methods

This study included 15,165 adults (aged 18 years and older) from 138 urban and rural communities in the 2018 survey of China Chronic Disease and Risk Factors Surveillance in Guangzhou. 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated using the risk assessment models recommended in the Chinese Guideline for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease 2017. The prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factor control of high ASCVD risk (defined as 10-year risk ≥10%) were examined.

Results

Among the study population, the weighted proportion of men was 51.9%, and the mean age was 41.27 ± 0.52 years. The overall standardized prevalence of high 10-year ASCVD risk was 13.8% (95% CI, 12.4%-15.3%). The awareness rates for hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia were 48.0% (95% CI, 42.8%-53.4%), 48.3% (95% CI, 43.0%-53.7%), and 17.9% (95% CI, 14.4%-22.1%) among those with corresponding risk factors. The proportions of drug use in prevention were relatively low in primary prevention, with the rates of using BP-lowering, glucose-lowering, lipid-lowering, and aspirin being 37.7% (95% CI, 32.8%-42.8%), 41.4% (95% CI, 35.8%-47.3%), 6.7% (95% CI, 4.5%-10.0%), and 1.0% (95% CI, 0.6%-1.8%), respectively. As for risk factor control, only 29.3% (95% CI, 25.7%-33.2%), 16.8% (95% CI, 15.0%-18.6%), and 36.0% (95% CI, 31.1%-41.2%) of individuals with high ASCVD risk had ideal levels of blood pressure, LDL-C, and body weight.

Conclusion

The estimated prevalence of 10-year high ASCVD risk was high in Guangzhou, while the rates of treatment and risk factor control in primary prevention were still far from optimal, especially for lipid management. These findings suggested that substantial improvement in ASCVD prevention is needed in this population.

Effectiveness of China-PAR and Framingham risk score in assessment of 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in Chinese hypertensive patients

OBJECTIVES

Estimating the total risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using risk prediction models represents a huge improvement in identifying and treating each of the risk factors. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the China-PAR (Prediction of atherosclerotic CVD risk in China) and Framingham risk score (FRS) in predicting the 10-year risk of CVD in Chinese hypertensive patients. The results of the study can be used to design health promotion strategies.

STUDY DESIGN

A large cohort study was used to assess the validity of models by comparing model predictions with actual incidence rates.

METHODS

In total, 10,498 hypertensive patients aged 30-70 years in Jiangsu Province, China, participated in the baseline survey that took place between January and December 2010 and were followed up to May 2020. China-PAR and FRS were used to calculate the predicted 10-year risk of CVD. The 10-year observed incidence of new cardiovascular events was adjusted by the Kaplan-Meier method. The ratio of the predicted risk to the actual incidence was calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of the model. The discrimination Harrell's C statistics and calibration Chi-square value were used to evaluate the predictive reliability of the models.

RESULTS

Of the 10,498 participants, 4411 (42.02%) were male. During the mean follow-up of 8.30 ± 1.45 years, a total of 693 new cardiovascular events occurred. Both models overestimated the risk of morbidity to varying degrees, and the FRS overestimated to a greater extent. After adjustment for covariates, the results of Cox proportional hazards regression showed that the risk of CVD in the high-risk group was higher than in low-risk group. The degree of discrimination in both models was approximately 0.6, which showed that discrimination was not ideal in the models. In addition, Chi-square calibrations of the two models were <20 in males, which showed that calibration of the models was better for men than women.

CONCLUSIONS

The China-PAR and FRS models overestimated the risk of CVD for participants in this study. In addition, the degree of discrimination was not ideal, and both models performed better in males than in females in terms of calibration. The results of this study suggest that a more suitable risk prediction model should be established according to the characteristics of the hypertensive population in Jiangsu Province.

Relationship of Arterial Stiffness and Central Hemodynamics With Cardiovascular Risk In Hypertension

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is becoming a serious public health problem and noninvasive estimation of central hemodynamics and artery stiffness have been identified as important predictors of cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

The study included 4,311 participants, both sex and aged between 20 and 79 years. Arterial velocity pulse index, arterial pressure-volume index (AVI, API, and the index of artery stiffness), central systolic blood pressure, central artery pulse pressure (CSBP, CAPP, and estimated via oscillometric blood pressure monitor), and 10-year risk score of cardiovascular disease in China (China-PAR) and Framingham cardiovascular risk score (FCVRS) were assessed at baseline. Regression model was performed to identify factors associated with high cardiovascular disease risk stratification. The relationships between CSBP, CAPP and China-PAR, and FCVRS were analyzed by restrictive cubic spline functions.

RESULTS

The uncontrolled hypertension group showed the highest values of AVI, API, CSBP, and CAPP. In the regression analysis, CAPP and hypertension subtypes were identified as significant predictors of high cardiovascular risk stratification, and CAPP was strongly correlated with API in this cohort. Finally, CSBP and CAPP showed significant J-shaped relationships with China-PAR and FCVRS.

CONCLUSIONS

Subjects with uncontrolled hypertension present with elevated values of CAPP, CSBP, API, AVI, China-PAR, and FCVRS scores. CAPP was independently associated with high cardiovascular risk stratification, and there was a significant J-shaped relationship with China-PAR and FCVRS that may identify people with higher cardiovascular risk.

Association between estimated glomerular filtration rate and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk among community residents in Shanghai, China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The association between the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is unknown. We aimed to evaluate whether eGFR can be used as a predictor in ASCVD risk assessment.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using baseline data from 28,187 participants from Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank study, we adopted Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) and Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) to estimate 10-year ASCVD risk. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between 10-year ASCVD risk and eGFR. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate predictive value of eGFR for 10-year high ASCVD risk. Compared with normal eGFR, both men and women with reduced eGFR had a higher prevalence of ASCVD risk factors. With the decrease of eGFR level, the median of 10-year ASCVD risk gradually increased. For men, the adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval (CI)) of 10-year high ASCVD risk by PCEs associated with eGFR (60-74 and <60 mL/min/1.73 m²) were 1.52 (95%CI:1.17-1.99) and 2.51 (95%CI:1.27-4.97). The corresponding result was significant only for eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m², OR of 1.57 (1.14-2.18) for women. Using China-PAR, the adjusted OR of 10-year high risk associated with eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² was 1.82 (1.40-2.38) in men. ROC indicated that eGFR has a good predictive value for 10-year high ASCVD risk.

CONCLUSION

eGFR may be an important risk factor in predicting and stratifying ASCVD risk. Consideration should be given to integrating eGFR into existing risk assessment tools to improve predictive performance.