Prognostic relevance of gradual weight changes on long-term mortality in chronic heart failure

Predicting Mortality Risks Using Body Mass Index and Weight Loss at Admission in Patients with Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

The association of the combination of body mass index (BMI) and weight change at admission with prognoses in patients with heart failure (HF) is unclear. Therefore, we investigated whether BMI and weight changes at admission affect mortality in patients with HF.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study lasted 99 months, starting in April 2014, and included 4,862 patients with HF from a Japanese real-world database. Cubic and thin-plate smoothing spline analyses were performed to investigate the association of BMI and weight changes with mortality. The percentage weight change was calculated every 6 months. The study outcome was the presence or absence of death.

RESULTS

The patients' mean age was 81.5±9.6 years, and 1,239 (25.5%) patients died. Cubic spline analysis revealed a negative correlation of BMI with mortality hazard ratio (HR) (BMI of 18.5 kg/m2 and 25 kg/m2; HR=1.3 [1.2-1.4] and 0.8 [0.7-0.9], respectively). Cubic spline analysis of weight change showed that weight loss tended to increase the mortality HR (each 6% decrease in weight change rate was associated with a 1.1 times higher mortality risk (95% CI [1.0-1.2]) Thin-plate smoothing spline analysis showed that the odds ratio (OR) negatively correlated with BMI (1-year mortality: BMI of 18.5 kg/m2, 22 kg/m2, and 25 kg/m2; OR at 0% weight change=1.5, 1.0, and 0.7, respectively; 2-year mortality: BMI=18.5 kg/m2, 22 kg/m2, and 25 kg/m2; OR at 0% weight change=1.4, 0.9, and 0.7, respectively).

CONCLUSION

A low BMI in patients with HF was associated with a higher risk of mortality. Weight loss in patients, regardless of BMI, was associated with a higher OR for mortality.

Association of weight loss with cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A consensus has not been reached on the association between weight loss and survival outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). This meta-analysis aimed to assess the association of weight loss with cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in patients with HF.

METHODS

Two authors independently searched the articles indexed in the PubMed and Embase databases up to May 7, 2023. Post hoc analysis of randomized controlled trials or observational studies that reported the utility of weight loss in predicting cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in patients with HF were included.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies reporting on 12 articles involving 26,164 patients with HF were included. A comparison of weight loss with stable weight showed that the pooled adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality was 1.75 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.43-2.14). Subgroup analysis revealed that weight loss was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, irrespective of whether patients were overweight/obese (HR 1.76; 95% CI 1.41-2.20) or not (HR 1.90; 95% CI 1.14-3.14). The pooled adjusted HR of cardiovascular mortality was 1.64 (95% CI 1.18-2.28) for patients with weight loss compared to those without.

CONCLUSIONS

Weight loss is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with HF. Assessing weight changes can provide prognostic information for patients with HF.

Causal relationship between nutritional assessment phenotypes and heart failure: A Mendelian randomization study

Introduction

Malnutrition is strongly associated with heart failure (HF); however, the causal link remains unclear. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to infer causal associations between different nutritional assessment phenotypes and HF and to analyze whether these associations were mediated by common HF risk factors.

Methods

Two-sample bidirectional MR was used to infer causal associations between nutritional assessment phenotypes and HF. Mutual influences between different nutritional assessment phenotypes and potential correlations were estimated using multivariate MR methods. Two-step MR was used to quantify the mediating effects of common HF risk factors on the causal associations.

Results

Three phenotypes were positively associated with the development of HF: waist circumference (WC) (odds ratio [OR] = 1.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-1.90; P = 3.95 × 10-39), body mass index (BMI) (OR = 1.70; 95%CI, 1.60-1.80; P = 1.35 × 10-73), and whole body fat mass (WBFM) (OR = 1.54; 95%CI, 1.44-1.65; P = 4.82 × 10-37). Multivariate MR indicated that WBFM remained positively associated with HF after conditioning on BMI and WC (OR = 2.05; 95%CI, 1.27-3.31; P = 0.003). Three phenotypes were negatively correlated with the development of HF: usual walking pace (UWP) (OR = 0.40; 95%CI, 0.27-0.60; P = 8.41 × 10-6), educational attainment (EA) (OR = 0.73; 95%CI, 0.67-0.79; P = 2.27 × 10-13), and total cholesterol (TC) (OR = 0.90; 95%CI, 0.84-0.96; P = 4.22 × 10-3). There was a bidirectional causality between HF and UWP (Effect estimate = -0.03; 95%CI, -0.05 to -0.01; P = 1.95 × 10-3). Mediation analysis showed that common risk factors for HF (hypertension, coronary artery disease, cardiomyopathy, and valvular heart disease) mediated these causal associations (all P < 0.05).

Conclusions

BMI, WC, and WBFM are potential risk factors for HF, and the correlation between WBFM and HF was significantly stronger than that between BMI and WC, and HF. EA, UWP, and TC are potential protective factors against HF. Common risk factors for HF mediate these causal pathways. Early identification of potential risk or protective factors for HF patients from the dimension of nutritional status is expected to further improve patient outcomes.

Coexistence of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss is a powerful predictor of mortality in older patients with heart failure

AIM

We examined whether the addition of self-reported weight loss improves the accuracy of prediction of mortality caused by sarcopenia in heart failure (HF) patients.

METHODS

We enrolled 477 HF patients (mean age 77 years) who received combined assessment of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss. Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to the criteria of the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia. If the patients answered "yes" to the question "have you lost 2 kg or more in the past 6 months?", they were diagnosed as having self-reported weight loss.

RESULTS

Sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss coexisted in 32% of patients. During a median follow-up period of 763 days, 65 patients (15%) died. Kaplan-Meier curves showed a significantly higher rate of mortality in HF patients with both sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss than in HF patients with sarcopenia alone. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that the coexistence of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss is an independent predictor of mortality in HF patients. Inclusion of the coexistence of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss in the baseline model consisting of established prognostic markers significantly improved both the net reclassification index and the integrated discrimination index.

CONCLUSIONS

The coexistence of sarcopenia and self-reported weight loss is a powerful predictor of mortality in HF patients. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 95-101.