Is screening for pancreatic cancer in high-risk groups cost-effective? - Experience from a Danish national screening program

Pancreatic Cancer: Screening and Early Detection

Pancreatic cancer, often diagnosed at advanced stages, has poor survival rates. Effective screening aims to detect the disease early, improving outcomes. Current guidelines recommend screening high-risk groups, including those with a family history or genetic predispositions, using methods like endoscopic ultrasound and MRI. The American Gastroenterological Association and other organizations advise annual surveillance for high-risk individuals, typically starting at the age of 50 or 10 years younger than the youngest affected relative. For certain genetic syndromes, such as Peutz-Jeghers syndrome or hereditary pancreatitis, screening may begin as early as the age of 35 to 40 years.

Review of the cost-effectiveness of surveillance for hereditary pancreatic cancer

Individuals with hereditary pancreatic cancer risk include high risk individuals (HRIs) with germline genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer (PC) and/or a strong family history of PC. Previously, studies have shown that PC surveillance in HRIs can downstage PC diagnosis and extend survival leading to pancreatic surveillance being recommended for certain HRIs. However, the optimal surveillance strategy remains uncertain, including which modalities should be used for surveillance, how frequently should surveillance be performed, and which sub-groups of HRIs should undergo surveillance. Additionally, in the ideal world PC surveillance should also be cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness analysis is a valuable tool that can consider the costs, potential health benefits, and risks among various PC surveillance strategies. In this review, we summarize the cost-effectiveness of various PC surveillance strategies for HRIs for hereditary pancreatic cancer and provide potential avenues for future work in this field. Additionally, we include cost-effectiveness studies among individuals with new-onset diabetes (NoD), a high-risk group for sporadic PC, as a comparison.

Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance and Survival of High-Risk Individuals

Importance

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a deadly disease with increasing incidence. The majority of PDACs are incurable at presentation, but population-based screening is not recommended. Surveillance of high-risk individuals for PDAC may lead to early detection, but the survival benefit is unproven.

Objective

To compare the survival of patients with surveillance-detected PDAC with US national data.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This comparative cohort study was conducted in multiple US academic medical centers participating in the Cancer of the Pancreas Screening program, which screens high-risk individuals with a familial or genetic predisposition for PDAC. The comparison cohort comprised patients with PDAC matched for age, sex, and year of diagnosis from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. The Cancer of the Pancreas Screening program originated in 1998, and data collection was done through 2021. The data analysis was performed from April 29, 2022, through April 10, 2023.

Exposures

Endoscopic ultrasonography or magnetic resonance imaging performed annually and standard-of-care surgical and/or oncologic treatment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Stage of PDAC at diagnosis, overall survival (OS), and PDAC mortality were compared using descriptive statistics and conditional logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, and competing risk regression models. Sensitivity analyses and adjustment for lead-time bias were also conducted.

Results

A total of 26 high-risk individuals (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 65.8 [9.5] years; 15 female [57.7%]) with PDAC were compared with 1504 SEER control patients with PDAC (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 66.8 [7.9] years; 771 female [51.3%]). The median primary tumor diameter of the 26 high-risk individuals was smaller than in the control patients (2.5 [range, 0.6-5.0] vs 3.6 [range, 0.2-8.0] cm, respectively; P < .001). The high-risk individuals were more likely to be diagnosed with a lower stage (stage I, 10 [38.5%]; stage II, 8 [30.8%]) than matched control patients (stage I, 155 [10.3%]; stage II, 377 [25.1%]; P < .001). The PDAC mortality rate at 5 years was lower for high-risk individuals than control patients (43% vs 86%; hazard ratio, 3.58; 95% CI, 2.01-6.39; P < .001), and high-risk individuals lived longer than matched control patients (median OS, 61.7 [range, 1.9-147.3] vs 8.0 [range, 1.0-131.0] months; 5-year OS rate, 50% [95% CI, 32%-80%] vs 9% [95% CI, 7%-11%]).

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that surveillance of high-risk individuals may lead to detection of smaller, lower-stage PDACs and improved survival.

The role of endoscopic ultrasound in the detection of pancreatic lesions in high-risk individuals

Individuals at high risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma are eligible for surveillance within research programs. These programs employ periodic imaging in the form of magnetic resonance imaging/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic ultrasound for the detection of early cancer or high-grade precursor lesions. This narrative review discusses the role of endoscopic ultrasound within these surveillance programs. It details its overall strengths and limitations, yield, burden on patients, and how it compares to magnetic resonance imaging. Finally, recommendations are given when and how to incorporate endoscopic ultrasound in the surveillance of high-risk individuals.

Aspects and outcomes of surveillance for individuals at high-risk of pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths and is associated with a poor prognosis. The majority of these cancers are detected at a late stage, contributing to the bad prognosis. This underscores the need for novel, enhanced early detection strategies to improve the outcomes. While population-based screening is not recommended due to the relatively low incidence of PDAC, surveillance is recommended for individuals at high risk for PDAC due to their increased incidence of the disease. However, the outcomes of pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals are not sorted out yet. In this review, we will address the identification of individuals at high risk for PDAC, discuss the objectives and targets of surveillance, outline how surveillance programs are organized, summarize the outcomes of high-risk individuals undergoing pancreatic cancer surveillance, and conclude with a future perspective on pancreatic cancer surveillance and novel developments.

Disparities in race, ethnicity, sex, and age inclusion in pancreatic cancer screening studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Substantial differences exist in pancreatic cancer outcomes across ethnoracial stratifications. We sought to assess racial, ethnic, sex, and age reporting and inclusion of participants in pancreatic cancer screening studies.

METHODS

A systematic search of Cochrane Library, Ovid Embase, Google Scholar, Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection from inception to 2022 was conducted. Original studies on pancreatic cancer screening were identified and assessed for reporting and inclusion on race, ethnicity, sex, and age. The pooled proportions of study participants for these characteristics were calculated and compared with population-based benchmarks.

RESULTS

Among 27 eligible pancreatic cancer screening studies, 26 reported data on either sex, race, or ethnicity, with a total of 5273 participants. Information on participant sex was reported by 26, race by 12, and ethnicity by 8 studies. Participants in these studies were almost all white (pooled proportion, 93.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 89.7-96.4) and non-Latino (pooled proportion, 97.4%; 95% CI, 94.0-100), and these groups were over-represented when compared with the general population. Female participants were well represented, with a pooled proportion of 63.2% (95% CI, 59.9-66.6). When reported, mean or median participant age was <60 years. Meta-regression revealed higher proportions of female participants in studies from the United States (P = .002). No association between increasing participation of racial or ethnic under-represented populations and study quality, ascending year of publication, or source of study funding was noted.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial disparities in race, ethnicity, sex, and age reporting and inclusion in pancreatic cancer studies were noted, even among high-quality and publicly funded studies.

Pancreatic cancer: from early detection to personalized treatment approaches

Pancreatic cancer is notorious for its persistently poor prognosis and health outcomes, so some of the questions that may be begged are "Why is it mostly diagnosed at end stage?", "What could we possibly do with the advancing technology in today's world to detect early pancreatic cancer and intervene?", and "Are there any implementation of the existing novel imaging technologies?". Well, to start with, this is in part because the majority of patients presented would already have reached a locally advanced or metastatic stage at the time of diagnosis due to its highly aggressive characteristics and lack of symptoms. Due to this striking disparity in survival, advancements in early detection and intervention are likely to significantly increase patients' survival. Presently, screening is frequently used in high-risk individuals in order to obtain an early pancreatic cancer diagnosis. Having a thorough understanding of the pathogenesis and risk factors of pancreatic cancer may enable us to identify individuals at high risk, diagnose the disease early, and begin treatment promptly. In this review, the authors outline the clinical hurdles to early pancreatic cancer detection, describe high-risk populations, and discuss current screening initiatives for high-risk individuals. The ultimate goal of this current review is to study the roles of both traditional and novel imaging modalities for early pancreatic cancer detection. A lot of the novel imaging techniques mentioned seem promising, but they need to be put to the test on a large scale and may need to be combined with other non-invasive biomarkers before they can be widely used.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening for Pancreatic Cancer Among High-Risk Populations

PURPOSE

We evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of combined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) among populations at high risk for the disease.

METHODS

We used a microsimulation model of the natural history of PDAC to estimate the lifetime health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of PDAC screening among populations with specific genetic risk factors for PDAC, including BRCA1 and BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, Lynch syndrome, TP53, CDKN2A, and STK11. For each high-risk population, we simulated 29 screening strategies, defined by starting age and frequency. Screening included MRI with follow-up EUS in a subset of patients. Costs of tests were based on Medicare reimbursement for MRI, EUS, fine-needle aspiration biopsy, and pancreatectomy. Cancer-related cost by stage of disease and phase of treatment was based on the literature. For each high-risk population, we performed an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis, assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 US dollars (USD) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

For men with relative risk (RR) 12.33 (CDKN2A) and RR 28 (STK11), annual screening was cost-effective, starting at age 55 and 40 years, respectively. For women, screening was only cost-effective for those with RR 28 (STK11), with annual screening starting at age 45 years.

CONCLUSION

Combined MRI/EUS screening may be a cost-effective approach for the highest-risk populations (among mutations considered, those with RR >12). However, for those with moderate risk (RR, 5-12), screening would only be cost-effective at higher WTP thresholds (eg, $200K USD/QALY) or with once-only screening.

Pancreatic Cancer Screening for At-Risk Individuals (Pancreas Scan Study): Yield, Harms, and Outcomes From a Prospective Multicenter Study

INTRODUCTION

Guidelines endorse pancreatic cancer screening in genetically susceptible individuals. We conducted a prospective, multicenter study to determine yield, harms, and outcomes of pancreatic cancer screening.

METHODS

All high-risk individuals undergoing pancreatic cancer screening at 5 centers from 2020 to 2022 were prospectively enrolled. Pancreas findings were designated as low-risk (fatty or chronic pancreatitis-like changes), intermediate-risk (neuroendocrine tumor [NET] <2 cm or branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm [IPMN]), or high-risk lesions (high-grade pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia/dysplasia, main-duct IPMN, NET >2 cm, or pancreatic cancer). Harms from screening included adverse events during screening or undergoing low-yield pancreatic surgery. Annual screening was performed using endoscopic ultrasound and or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography. Annual screening for new-onset diabetes using fasting blood sugar was also performed ( ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT05006131).

RESULTS

During the study period, 252 patients underwent pancreatic cancer screening. Mean age was 59.9 years, 69% were female, and 79.4% were White. Common indications were BRCA 1/2 (36.9%), familial pancreatic cancer syndrome kindred (31.7%), ataxia telangiectasia mutated (3.5%), Lynch syndrome (6.7%), Peutz-Jeghers (4.3%), and familial atypical multiple mole melanoma (3.5%). Low-risk lesions were noted in 23.4% and intermediate-risk lesions in 31.7%, almost all of which were branch-duct IPMN without worrisome features. High-risk lesions were noted in 2 patients (0.8%), who were diagnosed with pancreas cancer at stages T2N1M0 and T2N1M1. Prediabetes was noted in 18.2% and new-onset diabetes in 1.7%. Abnormal fasting blood sugar was not associated with pancreatic lesions. There were no adverse events from screening tests, and no patient underwent low-yield pancreatic surgery.

DISCUSSION

Pancreatic cancer screening detected high-risk lesions with lower frequency than previously reported. No harms from screening were noted.

Are All Cysts Created Equal?: Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms in Patients with Familial or Genetic Risk Factors for Pancreatic Cancer

Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) have become more prevalent over time, particularly in asymptomatic individuals. Current screening guidelines for incidental PCLs offer a unified approach to surveillance and management, predicated on "worrisome features." Although PCLs are common in the general population, their prevalence may be higher in high-risk individuals (HRI, unaffected patients with specific familial and/or genetic risk factors). As more PCLs are diagnosed and more HRI identified, it is important to promote research that bridges data gaps and introduces nuance to risk assessment tools, ensuring tailoring of guidelines to the needs of HRI with varying pancreatic cancer risk factors.

Economic Burden of Pancreatic Cancer in Europe: a Literature Review

PURPOSE

Pancreatic cancer is characterized by its high mortality, usually attributed to its diagnosis in already advanced stages. This article aims at presenting an overview of the economic burden of pancreatic cancer in Europe.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted. It made use of the search engines EconLit, Google Scholar, PubMed and Web of Science, and retrieved articles published after December 31st, 1992, and before April 1st, 2020. Study characteristics and cost information were extracted. Cost per patient and cost per patient per month (PPM) were calculated, and drivers of estimate heterogeneity was analysed. Results were converted into 2019 Euros.

RESULTS

The literature review yielded 26 studies on the economic burden attributable to pancreatic cancer in Europe. Cost per patient was on average 40,357 euros (median 15,991), while figures PPM were on average 3,656 euros (median 1,536). Indirect costs were found to be on average 154,257 euros per patient or 14,568 euros PPM, while direct costs 20,108 euros per patient and 2,004 euros PPM. Nevertheless, variation on cost estimations was large and driven by study methodology, patient sample characteristics, such as type of tumour and cancer stage and cost components included in analyses, such as type of procedure.

CONCLUSION

Pancreatic cancer direct costs PPM are in the upper bound relative to other cancer types; however, direct per patient costs are likely to be lower because of shorter survival. Indirect costs are substantial, mainly attributed to high mortality.

Cost-effectiveness of pancreas surveillance: The CDKN2A-p16-Leiden cohort

BACKGROUND

CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation carriers have a high lifetime risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), with very poor survival. Surveillance may improve prognosis.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of surveillance, as compared to no surveillance.

METHODS

In 2000, a surveillance program was initiated at Leiden University Medical Center with annual MRI and optional endoscopic ultrasound. Data were collected on the resection rate of screen-detected tumors and on survival. The Kaplan-Meier method and a parametric cure model were used to analyze and compare survival. Based on the surveillance and survival data from the screening program, a state-transition model was constructed to estimate lifelong outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 347 mutation carriers participated in the surveillance program. PDAC was detected in 31 patients (8.9%) and the tumor could be resected in 22 patients (71.0%). Long-term cure among patients with resected PDAC was estimated at 47.1% (p < 0.001). The surveillance program was estimated to reduce mortality from PDAC by 12.1% and increase average life expectancy by 2.10 years. Lifelong costs increased by €13,900 per patient, with a cost-utility ratio of €14,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. For annual surveillance to have an acceptable cost-effectiveness in other settings, lifetime PDAC risk needs to be 10% or higher.

CONCLUSION

The tumor could be resected in most patients with a screen-detected PDAC. These patients had considerably better survival and as a result annual surveillance was found to be cost-effective.

Risk Assessment and Pancreatic Cancer: Diagnostic Management and Artificial Intelligence

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the deadliest cancers, and it is responsible for a number of deaths almost equal to its incidence. The high mortality rate is correlated with several explanations; the main one is the late disease stage at which the majority of patients are diagnosed. Since surgical resection has been recognised as the only curative treatment, a PC diagnosis at the initial stage is believed the main tool to improve survival. Therefore, patient stratification according to familial and genetic risk and the creation of screening protocol by using minimally invasive diagnostic tools would be appropriate. Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) are subsets of lesions which deserve special management to avoid overtreatment. The current PC screening programs are based on the annual employment of magnetic resonance imaging with cholangiopancreatography sequences (MR/MRCP) and/or endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS). For patients unfit for MRI, computed tomography (CT) could be proposed, although CT results in lower detection rates, compared to MRI, for small lesions. The actual major limit is the incapacity to detect and characterize the pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN) by EUS and MR/MRCP. The possibility of utilizing artificial intelligence models to evaluate higher-risk patients could favour the diagnosis of these entities, although more data are needed to support the real utility of these applications in the field of screening. For these motives, it would be appropriate to realize screening programs in research settings.

Early Diagnosis of Pancreatic Cancer: Clinical Premonitions, Timely Precursor Detection and Increased Curative-Intent Surgery

BACKGROUND

The overall poor prognosis in pancreatic cancer is related to late clinical detection. Early diagnosis remains a considerable challenge in pancreatic cancer. Unfortunately, the onset of clinical symptoms in patients usually indicate advanced disease or presence of metastasis.

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

Currently, there are no designated diagnostic or screening tests for pancreatic cancer in clinical use. Thus, identifying risk groups, preclinical risk factors or surveillance strategies to facilitate early detection is a target for ongoing research. Hereditary genetic syndromes are a obvious, but small group at risk, and warrants close surveillance as suggested by society guidelines. Screening for pancreatic cancer in asymptomatic individuals is currently associated with the risk of false positive tests and, thus, risk of harms that outweigh benefits. The promise of cancer biomarkers and use of 'omics' technology (genomic, transcriptomics, metabolomics etc.) has yet to see a clinical breakthrough. Several proposed biomarker studies for early cancer detection lack external validation or, when externally validated, have shown considerably lower accuracy than in the original data. Biopsies or tissues are often taken at the time of diagnosis in research studies, hence invalidating the value of a time-dependent lag of the biomarker to detect a pre-clinical, asymptomatic yet operable cancer. New technologies will be essential for early diagnosis, with emerging data from image-based radiomics approaches, artificial intelligence and machine learning suggesting avenues for improved detection.

CONCLUSIONS

Early detection may come from analytics of various body fluids (eg 'liquid biopsies' from blood or urine). In this review we present some the technological platforms that are explored for their ability to detect pancreatic cancer, some of which may eventually change the prospects and outcomes of patients with pancreatic cancer.

Successful Pancreatic Cancer Screening Among Individuals at Elevated Risk Using Endoscopic Ultrasound and Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Community Hospital Experience

OBJECTIVES

Guidelines for testing individuals at risk (IAR) for developing pancreatic duct adenocarcinoma (PC) are being advanced from university hospital populations. We implemented a screen-in criteria and protocol for IAR for PC in our community hospital setting.

METHODS

Eligibility was based on germline status and/or family history of PC. Longitudinal testing continued, alternating between endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The primary objective was to analyze pancreatic conditions and their associations with risk factors. The secondary objective was to evaluate the outcomes and complications resulting from testing.

RESULTS

Over 93 months, 102 individuals completed baseline EUS, and 26 (25%) met defined endpoints of any abnormal findings in the pancreas. Average enrollment was 40 months, and all participants with endpoints continued standard surveillance. Two participants (1.8%) had endpoint findings requiring surgery for premalignant lesions. Increasing age predicted for endpoint findings. Analysis of longitudinal testing suggested reliability between the EUS and MRI results.

CONCLUSIONS

In our community hospital population, baseline EUS was effective in identifying the majority of findings; advancing age correlated with a greater chance of abnormalities. No differences were observed between EUS and MRI findings. Screening programs for PC among IAR can be successfully performed in the community setting.

Genetic testing to guide screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Results of a microsimulation model

BACKGROUND

First-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have elevated PDAC risk, partially due to germline genetic variants. We evaluated the potential effectiveness of genetic testing to target MRI-based screening among FDRs.

METHODS

We used a microsimulation model of PDAC, calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, to estimate the potential life expectancy (LE) gain of screening for each of the following groups of FDRs: individuals who test positive for each of eight variants associated with elevated PDAC risk (e.g., BRCA2, CDKN2A); individuals who test negative; and individuals who do not test. Screening was assumed to take place if LE gains were achievable. We simulated multiple screening approaches, defined by starting age and frequency. Sensitivity analysis evaluated changes in results given varying model assumptions.

RESULTS

For women, 92% of mutation carriers had projected LE gains from screening for PDAC, if screening strategies (start age, frequency) were optimized. Among carriers, LE gains ranged from 0.1 days (ATM+ women screened once at age 70) to 510 days (STK11+ women screened annually from age 40). For men, LE gains were projected for all mutation carriers, ranging from 0.2 days (BRCA1+ men screened once at age 70) to 620 days (STK11+ men screened annually from age 40). For men and women who did not undergo genetic testing, or for whom testing showed no variant, screening yielded small LE benefit (0-2.1 days).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic testing of FDRs can inform targeted PDAC screening by identifying which FDRs may benefit.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Risk-Tailored Pancreatic Cancer Early Detection Strategy Among Patients With New-Onset Diabetes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in asymptomatic adults is not recommended, however, patients with new-onset diabetes (NoD) have an 8 times higher risk of PDAC than expected. A novel risk-tailored early detection strategy targeting high-risk NoD patients might improve PDAC prognosis. We sought to evaluate the cost effectiveness of this strategy.

METHODS

We compared PDAC early detection strategies targeting NoD individuals age 50 years and older at various minimal predicted PDAC risk thresholds vs standard of care in a Markov state-transition decision model under the health care sector perspective using a lifetime horizon.

RESULTS

At a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the early detection strategy targeting patients with a minimum predicted 3-year PDAC risk of 1% was cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $116,911). At a WTP threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, the early detection strategy at the 2% risk threshold was cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $63,045). The proportion of PDACs detected at local stage, costs of treatment for metastatic PDAC, utilities of local and regional cancers, and sensitivity of screening were the most influential parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed that at a WTP threshold of $150,000, early detection at the 1.0% risk threshold was favored (30.6%), followed by the 0.5% risk threshold (20.4%) vs standard of care (1.7%). At a WTP threshold of $100,000, early detection at the 1.0% risk threshold was favored (27.3%) followed by the 2.0% risk threshold (22.8%) vs standard of care (2.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

A risk-tailored PDAC early detection strategy targeting NoD patients with a minimum predicted 3-year PDAC risk of 1.0% to 2.0% may be cost effective.

Current Screening Strategies for Pancreatic Cancer

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a dreaded malignancy with a dismal 5-year survival rate despite maximal efforts on optimizing treatment strategies. Radical surgery is the only potential curative procedure. Unfortunately, the majority of patients are diagnosed with locally advanced or metastatic disease, which renders them ineligible for curative resection. Early detection of PDAC is thus considered to be the most effective way to improve survival. In this regard, pancreatic screening has been proposed to improve results by detecting asymptomatic stages of PDAC and its precursors. There is now evidence of benefits of systematic surveillance in high-risk individuals, and the current guidelines emphasize the potential of screening to affect overall survival in individuals with genetic susceptibility syndromes or familial occurrence of PDAC. Here we aim to summarize the current knowledge about screening strategies for PDAC, including the latest epidemiological data, risk factors, associated hereditary syndromes, available screening modalities, benefits, limitations, as well as management implications.

Cancer surveillance for patients with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome in Brazil: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

In Brazil, there is a higher prevalence of Li-Fraumeni Syndrome (LFS) compared to worldwide, due to the founder mutation in the TP53 gene p.R337H. However, a large portion of the population, that depends on National Health Care System, does not have access to effective screening through the Toronto Protocol guidelines that enables early diagnosis and improves overall survival. Population strategies for early cancer detection recommended in Brazil are limited and additional screening is not offered to patients at a high risk, leading to late diagnoses and higher cancer mortality. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing annual screening that follows the Toronto Protocol for patients diagnosed with LFS in Brazil.

Methods

A Markov decision analytic model was developed to estimate cost-effectiveness of 1,000 LFS carriers under surveillance and non-surveillance strategies over a patient's lifetime. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as cost per additional life year gained, comparing surveillance and non-surveillance strategies in p.R337H TP53 carriers.

Findings

For females, the model showed a mean cost of $2,222 and $14,640 and yielded 22 and 26·2 life years for non-surveillance and surveillance strategies, respectively. The ICER for early cancer surveillance versus no surveillance was $2,982 per additional life year gained. For males, the model predicts mean lifetime costs of $1,165 and $12,883 and average life years of 23·5 and 26·3 for non-surveillance and surveillance strategies, respectively. This amounts to an ICER of $ 4,185 per additional life year. Surveillance had 64% and 45% probabilities of being the most cost-effective strategy for early cancer detection in female and male carriers, respectively.

Interpretation

The adoption of surveillance for patients diagnosed with LFS by the Brazilian National Health Care System is cost-beneficial for both males and females.

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency.

Pancreatic Cancer: Pathogenesis, Screening, Diagnosis, and Treatment

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a clinically challenging cancer, due to both its late stage at diagnosis and its resistance to chemotherapy. However, recent advances in our understanding of the biology of PDAC have revealed new opportunities for early detection and targeted therapy of PDAC. In this review, we discuss the pathogenesis of PDAC, including molecular alterations in tumor cells, cellular alterations in the tumor microenvironment, and population-level risk factors. We review the current status of surveillance and early detection of PDAC, including populations at high risk and screening approaches. We outline the diagnostic approach to PDAC and highlight key treatment considerations, including how therapeutic approaches change with disease stage and targetable subtypes of PDAC. Recent years have seen significant improvements in our approaches to detect and treat PDAC, but large-scale, coordinated efforts will be needed to maximize the clinical impact for patients and improve overall survival.

Imaging of the Pancreas in New-Onset Diabetes: A Prospective Pilot Study

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of cross-sectional imaging for detection of pancreatic cancer (PDAC) in patients with new-onset hyperglycemia and diabetes (NOD).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective pilot study from November 2018 to March 2020 within an integrated health system. Patients aged 50-85 years with newly elevated glycemic parameters without a history of diabetes were invited to complete a 3-phase contrast-enhanced computed tomography pancreas protocol scan while participating in the Prospective Study to Establish a NOD Cohort. Abnormal pancreatic findings, incidental extrapancreatic findings, and subsequent clinical evaluation were identified. Variability in clinical reporting between medical centers based on descriptors of pancreatic duct and parenchyma was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 130 of 147 participants (88.4%) consented to imaging; 93 scans were completed (before COVID-19 stay-at-home order). The median age was 62.4 years (interquartile range 56.3-68.8), 37.6% women; Hispanic (39.8%), White (29.0%), Black (14.0%), and Asian (13.3%). One (1.1%) case of PDAC (stage IV) was diagnosed, 12 of 93 participants (12.9%) had additional pancreatic findings: 5 fatty infiltration, 3 cysts, 2 atrophy, 1 divisum, and 1 calcification. There were 57 extrapancreatic findings among 52 of 93 (56%) unique patients; 12 of 57 (21.1%) prompted clinical evaluation with 2 additional malignancies diagnosed (nonsmall cell lung and renal oncocytoma). Reports from 1 participating medical center more frequently provided description of pancreatic parenchyma and ducts (92.9% vs 18.4%), P < 0.0001.

DISCUSSION

High proportion of incidental findings and variability in clinical reports are challenges to be addressed for a successful NOD-based early detection strategy for PDAC.

Long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals.

DESIGN

From 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with an estimated 10% or greater lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after obligatory evaluation by a clinical geneticist and genetic testing, and subjected them to annual surveillance with both endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI/cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) at each visit.

RESULTS

366 individuals (201 mutation-negative familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds and 165 PDAC susceptibility gene mutation carriers; mean age 54 years, SD 9.9) were followed for 63 months on average (SD 43.2). Ten individuals developed PDAC, of which four presented with a symptomatic interval carcinoma and six underwent resection. The cumulative PDAC incidence was 9.3% in the mutation carriers and 0% in the FPC kindreds (p<0.001). Median PDAC survival was 18 months (range 1-32). Surgery was performed in 17 individuals (4.6%), whose pathology revealed 6 PDACs (3 T1N0M0), 7 low-grade precursor lesions, 2 neuroendocrine tumours <2 cm, 1 autoimmune pancreatitis and in 1 individual no abnormality. There was no surgery-related mortality. EUS detected more solid lesions than MRI/MRCP (100% vs 22%, p<0.001), but less cystic lesions (42% vs 83%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The diagnostic yield of PDAC was substantial in established high-risk mutation carriers, but non-existent in the mutation-negative proven FPC kindreds. Nevertheless, timely identification of resectable lesions proved challenging despite the concurrent use of two imaging modalities, with EUS outperforming MRI/MRCP. Overall, surveillance by imaging yields suboptimal results with a clear need for more sensitive diagnostic markers, including biomarkers.

Late-Stage Pancreatic Cancer Detected During High-Risk Individual Surveillance: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Identification and resection of successful targets, that is, T₁ N₀M₀ pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and high-grade precursors during surveillance of high-risk individuals (HRIs) confers improved survival. Late-stage PDACs refer to T_2-4 N₀M₀ and nodal or distant metastatic PDAC stages diagnosed during the follow-up phase of HRI surveillance. This study aimed to quantify late-stage PDACs during HRI surveillance and identify associated clinicoradiologic factors.

METHODS

A systematic search (PROSPERO:CRD42018117189) from Cochrane Library, Embase, Google Scholar, Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science was last performed on April 18, 2021. Only original HRI surveillance manuscripts that specified follow-up strategies were included, and studies with only baseline information were excluded. Cumulative incidences of advanced neoplasia: high-grade precursors and all PDACs, and surveillance-detected/interval late-stage PDACs were calculated through random-effects model. Incidence of late-stage PDACs underwent metaregression to identify association with HRI clinicoradiologic features. Publication bias was assessed through the funnel plot and Egger's regression line.

RESULTS

Thirteen original surveillance studies included 2169 HRIs followed over 7302.72 patient-years. Cumulative incidence of advanced neoplasia and late-stage PDACs was 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6-7.4) and 1.7 (95% CI: 0.2-4.0) per 1000 patient-years, respectively. Late-stage PDACs lacked significant association with surveillance imaging, baseline pancreatic morphology, study location, genetic background, gender, or age. Limited information on diagnostic error, symptoms, timing of presentation, lesion site, and surveillance adherence precluded formal meta-analysis.

CONCLUSION

A sizeable proportion of late-stage PDACs were detected during follow-up. Their incidence lacked association with baseline clinicoradiologic features. Further causal investigation of stage-based outcomes is warranted for overall improvement in HRI surveillance.

Prediction of Pancreatic Cancer in Diabetes Patients with Worsening Glycemic Control

BACKGROUND

Worsening glycemic control indicates elevated risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We developed prediction models for PDAC among those with worsening glycemic control after diabetes diagnosis.

METHODS

In 2000-2016 records within the Veterans Affairs Health System (VA), we identified three cohorts with progression of diabetes: (i) insulin initiation (n = 449,685), (ii) initiation of combination oral hypoglycemic medication (n = 414,460), and (iii) hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥8% with ≥Δ1% within 15 months (n = 593,401). We computed 12-, 36-, and 60-month incidence of PDAC and developed prediction models separately for males and females, with consideration of >30 demographic, behavioral, clinical, and laboratory variables. Models were selected to optimize Akaike's Information Criterion, and performance for predicting 12-, 36-, and 60-month incident PDAC was evaluated by bootstrap.

RESULTS

Incidence of PDAC was highest for insulin initiators and greater in males than in females. Optimism-corrected c-indices of the models for predicting 36-month incidence of PDAC in the male population were: (i) 0.72, (ii) 0.70, and (iii) 0.71, respectively. Models performed better for predicting 12-month incident PDAC [c-index (i) 0.78, (ii) 0.73, (iii) 0.76 for males], and worse for predicting 60-month incident PDAC [c-index (i) 0.69, (ii) 0.67, (iii) 0.68 for males]. Model performance was lower among females. For subjects whose model-predicted 36-month PDAC risks were ≥1%, the observed incidences were (i) 1.9%, (ii) 2.2%, and (iii) 1.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Sex-specific models for PDAC can estimate risk of PDAC at the time of progression of diabetes.

IMPACT

Our models can identify diabetes patients who would benefit from PDAC screening.

Abnormal Findings on "T1WI or DWI or MRCP:" An Effective Boolean Interpretation Model in Discriminating Small Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma from Control Group

Objectives

The objectives of the study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of findings on T1-weighted imaging (T1WI), T2-weighted imaging (T2WI), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) separately and to identify an optimal Boolean interpretation model for discriminating patients with small pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) from control groups in clinical practice.

Material and Methods

We retrospectively enrolled 30 patients with surgery confirmed small PDAC (≤20 mm) and 302 patients without pancreatic abnormality between April 2008 and February 2020. The presence of masses was evaluated by T1WI, T2WI, and DWI. Abnormality of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) was evaluated by T2WI and MRCP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to select significant sequences for discriminating the small PDAC and control groups. Boolean operators "OR" or "AND" were used to construct sequence combinations. Diagnostic performances of these sequences and combinations were evaluated by X ² tests.

Results

The sensitivity of T2WI was lowest (20%) for detecting masses. For evaluating MPD abnormality, sensitivity was higher for MRCP than for T2WI (86.7% vs. 53.3%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that T1WI and DWI for detecting the presence of masses and MRCP for evaluating MPD abnormality were significantly associated with differentiation between the two groups (P = 0.0002, P = 0.0484, and P < 0.0001, respectively). Seven combinations were constructed with T1WI, DWI, and MRCP. The combination of findings on "T1WI or DWI or MRCP" achieved the highest sensitivity of 96.7% and negative predictive value of 99.6%.

Conclusion

The combination of findings on "T1WI or DWI or MRCP" might be an optimal interpretation model for discriminating small PDAC from control groups in clinical practice.

Cohort profile and heritability assessment of familial pancreatic cancer: a nation-wide study

BACKGROUND

Familial Pancreatic Cancer (FPC) is responsible for up to 10% of all cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Individuals predisposed for FPC have an estimated lifetime risk of 16-39% of developing PDAC. While heritability of PDAC has been estimated to be 36% in a Nordic twin study, no heritability estimate specific on FPC has been reported.

METHODS

A national cohort of Danish families with predisposition for FPC is currently included in a screening program for PDAC at Odense University Hospital. Family members included in the screening program were interviewed for pedigree data including: cases of PDAC among first-degree relatives (FDRs) and number of affected/unaffected siblings. Heritability for FPC in the predisposed families was assessed by doubling the estimated intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) from a random intercept logistic model fitted to data on FDRs.

RESULTS

Among families with predisposition for FPC, 83 cases of PDAC were identified. The median age at diagnosis of PDAC was 66 years, and median time from diagnosis to death was 7.6 months. A total of 359 individuals were found as unaffected FDRs of the 83 PDAC cases. The retrieved FDRs included a total of 247 individuals in sibship and 317 individuals in parent-offspring relatedness. We estimated an ICC of 0.25, corresponding to a narrow sense additive heritability estimate of 0.51 in the FPC family cohort.

CONCLUSION

We have established a nation-wide cohort of FPC families to facilitate clinical and genetic studies on FPC. The estimated heritability of 51% prominently underlines a strong genetic background of FPC.

Whole genome sequencing identifies rare germline variants enriched in cancer related genes in first degree relatives of familial pancreatic cancer patients

First-degree relatives (FDRs) of familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) patients have increased risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Investigating and understanding the genetic basis for PDAC susceptibility in FPC predisposed families may contribute toward future risk-assessment and management of high-risk individuals. Using a Danish cohort of 27 FPC families, we performed whole-genome sequencing of 61 FDRs of FPC patients focusing on rare genetic variants that may contribute to familial aggregation of PDAC. Statistical analysis was performed using the gnomAD database as external controls. Through analysis of heterozygous premature truncating variants (PTV), we identified cancer-related genes and cancer-driver genes harboring multiple germline mutations. Association analysis detected 20 significant genes with false discovery rate, q < 0.05 including: PALD1, LRP1B, COL4A2, CYLC2, ZFYVE9, BRD3, AHDC1, etc. Functional annotation showed that the significant genes were enriched by gene clusters encoding for extracellular matrix and associated proteins. PTV genes were over-represented by functions related to transport of small molecules, innate immune system, ion channel transport, and stimuli-sensing channels. In conclusion, FDRs of FPC patients carry rare germline variants related to cancer pathogenesis that may contribute to increased susceptibility to PDAC. The identified variants may potentially be useful for risk prediction of high-risk individuals in predisposed families.

Threshold Analysis of the Cost-effectiveness of Endoscopic Ultrasound in Patients at High Risk for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Data from the International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium studies have demonstrated that screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma can be effective and that surveillance improves survival in high-risk individuals. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and cross-sectional imaging are both used, although there is some suggestion that EUS is superior. Demonstration of the cost-effectiveness of screening is important to implement screening in high-risk groups.

METHODS

Results from centers with EUS-predominant screening were pooled to evaluate efficacy of index EUS in screening. A decision analysis model simulated the outcome of high-risk patients who undergo screening and evaluated the parameters that would make screening cost-effective at a US $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year willingness to pay.

RESULTS

One-time index EUS has a sensitivity of 71.25% and specificity of 99.82% to detection to detect high-risk lesions. Screening with index EUS was cost-effective, particularly at lifetime pancreatic cancer probabilities of greater than 10.8%, or at lower probabilities if life expectancy after resection of a lesion that was at least 16 years, and if missed, lesion rates on index EUS are 5% or less.

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatic cancer screening can be cost-effective through index EUS, particularly for those individuals at high-lifetime risk of cancer.

Advances in the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer: Trends, risk factors, screening, and prognosis

Pancreatic cancer is a malignancy with poor prognosis and high mortality. The recent increase in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality has resulted in an increased number of studies on its epidemiology. This comprehensive and systematic literature review summarizes the advances in the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer, including its epidemiological trends, risk factors, risk prediction models, screening modalities, and prognosis. The risk factors for pancreatic cancers can be categorized as those related to individual characteristics, lifestyle and environment, and disease status. Several prediction models for pancreatic cancer have been developed in populations with new-onset diabetes or a family history of pancreatic cancer; however, these models require further validation. Despite recent progress in pancreatic cancer screening, the quantity and quality of related studies are also unsatisfactory, especially with respect to the identification of high-risk populations and development of effective screening modality. Apart from the populations with familial genetic risk and those at a high risk of sporadic pancreatic cancer, risk factors such as new-onset diabetes may be a new direction for timely intervention. We hope this work will provide new ideas for further prevention and treatment of pancreatic cancer.

Screening for pancreatic cancer: a review for general clinicians

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is an exceptionally lethal malignancy with increasing incidence and mortality worldwide. One of the principal challenges in the treatment of PC is that the diagnosis is usually made at a late stage when potentially curative surgical resection is no longer an option. General clinicians including internists and family physicians are well positioned to identify high-risk individuals and refer them to centers with expertise in PC screening and treatment where screening modalities can be employed. Here, we provide an up-to-date review of PC precursor lesions, epidemiology, and risk factors to empower the general clinician to recognize high-risk patients and employ risk reduction strategies. We also review current screening guidelines and modalities and preview progress that is being made to improve screening tests and biomarkers. It is our hope that this review article will empower the general clinician to understand which patients need to be screened for PC, strategies that may be used to reduce PC risk, and which screening modalities are available in order to diminish the lethality of PC.

Surveillance of high-risk individuals for pancreatic cancer with EUS and MRI: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Consensus guidelines recommend surveillance of high-risk individuals (HRIs) for pancreatic cancer (PC) using endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). This study aims to assess the yield of PC surveillance programs of HRIs and compare the detection of high-grade dysplasia or T1N0M0 adenocarcinoma by EUS and MRI.

METHODS

The MEDLINE and Embase (Ovid) databases were searched for prospective studies published up to April 11, 2019 using EUS and/or MRI to screen HRIs for PC. Baseline detection of focal pancreatic abnormalities, cystic lesions, solid lesions, high-grade dysplasia or T1N0M0 adenocarcinoma, and all pancreatic adenocarcinoma were recorded. Weighted pooled proportions of outcomes detected were compared between EUS and MRI using random effects modeling.

RESULTS

A total of 1097 studies were reviewed and 24 were included, representing 2112 HRIs who underwent imaging. The weighted pooled proportion of focal pancreatic abnormalities detected by baseline EUS (0.34, 95% CI 0.30-0.37) was significantly higher (p = 0.006) than by MRI (0.31, 95% CI 0.28-0.33). There were no significant differences between EUS and MRI in detection of other outcomes. The overall weighted pooled proportion of patients with high-grade dysplasia or T1N0M0 adenocarcinoma detected at baseline (regardless of imaging modality) was 0.0090 (95% CI 0.0022-0.016), corresponding to a number-needed-to-screen (NNS) of 111 patients to detect one high-grade dysplasia or T1N0M0 adenocarcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance programs are successful in detecting high-risk precursor lesions. No differences between EUS and MRI were noted in the detection of high-grade dysplasia or T1N0M0 adenocarcinoma, supporting the use of either imaging modality.

Cost-effectiveness of Abdominal Ultrasound Versus Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Pancreatic Cancer Screening in Familial High-Risk Individuals in Japan

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to assess cost-effectiveness of abdominal ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging, endoscopic ultrasound, computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and no screening for pancreatic cancer screening in familial high-risk individuals (HRIs).

METHODS

We developed decision trees with Markov models for a hypothetical cohort of familial HRIs at the age of 50 year using a healthcare sector perspective and a lifetime horizon. Main outcomes were costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

In a base-case analysis, abdominal ultrasound was the most cost-effective (US $11,035, 17.4875 QALYs). Magnetic resonance imaging yielded the best benefits. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to the incidence of pancreatic cancer. Endoscopic ultrasound was more cost-effective than abdominal ultrasound when the incidence of pancreatic cancer was greater than 0.008 and under 0.016. Magnetic resonance imaging was more cost-effective than endoscopic ultrasound when the incidence of pancreatic cancer was greater than 0.016. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulation for 10,000 trials demonstrated that abdominal ultrasound was cost-effective 76% of the time at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US $50,000/QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Abdominal ultrasound is the most cost-effective and recommended for pancreatic cancer screening in familial HRIs in Japan. Evaluating the risk of pancreatic cancer among familial HRIs as a target for screening is significant.

Prophylactic total pancreatectomy in individuals at high risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PROPAN): systematic review and shared decision-making programme using decision tables

Background

Individuals with a very high lifetime risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; for example, hereditary pancreatitis and main-duct or mixed-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, may wish to discuss prophylactic total pancreatectomy but strategies to do so are lacking.

Objective

To develop a shared decision-making programme for prophylactic total pancreatectomy using decision tables.

Methods

Focus group meetings with patients were used to identify relevant questions. Systematic reviews were performed to answer these questions.

Results

The first tables included hereditary pancreatitis and main-duct or mixed-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm. No studies focused on prophylactic total pancreatectomy in these groups. In 52 studies (3570 patients), major morbidity after total pancreatectomy was 25% and 30-day mortality was 6%. After minimally invasive total pancreatectomy (seven studies, 35 patients) this was, respectively, 13% and 0%. Exocrine insufficiency-related symptoms occurred in 33%. Quality of life after total pancreatectomy was slightly lower compared with the general population.

Conclusion

The decision tables can be helpful for discussing prophylactic total pancreatectomy with individuals at high risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

White paper on pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from society of abdominal radiology's disease-focused panel for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Part II, update on imaging techniques and screening of pancreatic cancer in high-risk individuals

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is an aggressive gastrointestinal malignancy with a poor 5-year survival rate. Its high mortality rate is attributed to its aggressive biology and frequently late presentation. While surgical resection remains the only potentially curative treatment, only 10-20% of patients will present with surgically resectable disease. Over the past several years, development of vascular bypass graft techniques and introduction of neoadjuvant treatment regimens have increased the number of patients who can undergo resection with a curative intent. While the role of conventional imaging in the detection, characterization, and staging of patients with PDAC is well established, its role in monitoring treatment response, particularly following neoadjuvant therapy remains challenging because of the complex anatomic and histological nature of PDAC. Novel morphologic and functional imaging techniques (such as DECT, DW-MRI, and PET/MRI) are being investigated to improve the diagnostic accuracy and the ability to measure response to therapy. There is also a growing interest to detect PDAC and its precursor lesions at an early stage in asymptomatic patients to increase the likelihood of achieving cure. This has led to the development of pancreatic cancer screening programs. This article will review recent updates in imaging techniques and the current status of screening and surveillance of individuals at a high risk of developing PDAC.

Screening for Pancreatic Cancer: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force

IMPORTANCE

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma is the third most common cause of cancer death among men and women in the United States.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review benefits and harms of screening for pancreatic adenocarcinoma to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, PubMed, and the Cochrane Collaboration Registry of Controlled Trials, from January 2002 through April 27, 2018; surveillance through March 22, 2019.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies of adults with or without risk factors for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (eg, family history of pancreatic cancer, personal history of new-onset diabetes) undergoing imaging-based screening; studies of treatment for adults with screen-detected or asymptomatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Included study designs were randomized clinical trials, nonrandomized controlled intervention studies, diagnostic accuracy studies with a reference standard, cohort studies, and case-control studies (for evaluation of harms only). Studies consisting entirely of populations with known genetic syndromes associated with pancreatic cancer were excluded.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two investigators independently reviewed abstracts and full-text articles and rated included studies for quality; data were quantitatively analyzed to calculate a pooled diagnostic yield and narratively synthesized.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mortality, morbidity, or quality of life; diagnostic accuracy of screening tests; any harm of screening or treatment.

RESULTS

Thirteen fair-quality prospective cohort screening studies (N = 1317) conducted predominantly in populations at high familial risk for pancreatic adenocarcinoma were included. No studies reported on the effect of screening on morbidity or mortality or on the effectiveness of treatment for screen-detected pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Although no studies evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of screening tests, all 13 studies reported the diagnostic yield. Yields ranged from 0 to 75 cases per 1000 persons in studies using endoscopic ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging, and/or computed tomography-based screening. In total, 18 cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma were detected in 1156 adults at increased familial risk and 0 cases were detected in 161 average-risk adults. In 8 studies (n = 675) assessing procedural harms of screening, no serious harms from initial screening were reported. Two studies (n = 271) found no evidence of psychosocial harms related to screening. Evidence of surgical harms was limited.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Imaging-based screening in groups at high familial risk can detect pancreatic adenocarcinoma with limited evidence of minimal harms. However, the effect of screening on morbidity and mortality in groups at high familial risk has not been studied, and no data are available in average-risk populations. There is limited evidence to assess benefits or harms of surgical intervention for screen-detected pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Screening for Pancreatic Cancer: US Preventive Services Task Force Reaffirmation Recommendation Statement

IMPORTANCE

Pancreatic cancer is an uncommon cancer with an age-adjusted annual incidence of 12.9 cases per 100 000 person-years. However, the death rate is 11.0 deaths per 100 000 person-years because the prognosis of pancreatic cancer is poor. Although its incidence is low, pancreatic cancer is the third most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Because of the increasing incidence of pancreatic cancer, along with improvements in early detection and treatment of other types of cancer, it is estimated that pancreatic cancer may soon become the second-leading cause of cancer death in the United States.

OBJECTIVE

To update the 2004 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation on screening for pancreatic cancer.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The USPSTF reviewed the evidence on the benefits and harms of screening for pancreatic cancer, the diagnostic accuracy of screening tests for pancreatic cancer, and the benefits and harms of treatment of screen-detected or asymptomatic pancreatic cancer.

FINDINGS

The USPSTF found no evidence that screening for pancreatic cancer or treatment of screen-detected pancreatic cancer improves disease-specific morbidity or mortality, or all-cause mortality. The USPSTF found adequate evidence that the magnitude of the benefits of screening for pancreatic cancer in asymptomatic adults can be bounded as no greater than small. The USPSTF found adequate evidence that the magnitude of the harms of screening for pancreatic cancer and treatment of screen-detected pancreatic cancer can be bounded as at least moderate. The USPSTF reaffirms its previous conclusion that the potential benefits of screening for pancreatic cancer in asymptomatic adults do not outweigh the potential harms.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION

The USPSTF recommends against screening for pancreatic cancer in asymptomatic adults. (D recommendation).

Cost-effectiveness of early cancer surveillance for patients with Li-Fraumeni syndrome

INTRODUCTION

Patients with germline TP53 pathogenic variants (Li-Fraumeni syndrome [LFS]) are at extremely high lifetime risk of developing cancer. Recent data suggest that tumor surveillance for patients with LFS may improve survival through early cancer detection. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a cancer surveillance strategy for patients with LFS compared with those whose tumors present clinically.

METHODS

A Markov decision analytic model was developed from a third-party payer perspective to estimate cost-effectiveness of routine cancer surveillance over a patient's lifetime. The model consisted of four possible health states: no cancer, cancer, post-cancer survivorship, and death. Model outcomes were costs (2015 United States Dollars [USD]), effectiveness (life years [LY] gained), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; change in cost/LY gained). One-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

The model showed a mean cost of $46 496 and $117 102 and yielded 23 and 27 LY for the nonsurveillance and surveillance strategies, respectively. The ICER for early cancer surveillance versus no surveillance was $17 125 per additional LY gained. At the commonly accepted willingness to pay threshold of $100 000/life-year gained, surveillance had a 98% probability of being the most cost-effective strategy for early cancer detection in this high-risk population.

CONCLUSIONS

Presymptomatic cancer surveillance is cost-effective for patients with germline pathogenic variants in TP53. Lack of insurance coverage or reimbursement in this population may have significant consequences and leads to undetected cancers presenting in later stages of disease with worse clinical outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance in High-Risk Individuals: An Economic Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to perform an economic analysis to identify the clinical and cost determinants of pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance in high-risk individuals (HRIs).

METHODS

A Markov model was created to compare the following 3 strategies: no screening, endoscopic ultrasound (EUS), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening. Patients were considered HRIs according to the Cancer of the Pancreas Screening consortium recommendations. Risk for developing PC, survival, and costs data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and Medicare databases. Surveillance effectiveness was obtained from a recent meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Analysis of a cohort with fivefold relative risk of PC higher than the US population showed that MRI is the most cost-effective strategy. For those with the highest risk (>×20 relative risk), EUS became the dominant strategy. Our model was impacted by cost and imaging performance, but still cost-effective within the range reported in literature. Threshold analysis showed that if MRI increases greater than US $1600, EUS becomes more cost-effective. Once patients reached the age of 76 years, "no screening" was favored. Both surveillance strategies were cost-effective over a wide range of willingness to pay.

CONCLUSIONS

Abdominal imaging followed by pancreatectomy is cost-effective to prevent PC in HRIs, favoring MRI in moderate risk cases but EUS in those with highest risk.

Identification of Cystic Lesions by Secondary Screening of Familial Pancreatic Cancer (FPC) Kindreds Is Not Associated with the Stratified Risk of Cancer

OBJECTIVES

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are associated with risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). It is unclear if an IPMN in individuals at high risk of PDAC should be considered as a positive screening result or as an incidental finding. Stratified familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) populations were used to determine if IPMN risk is linked to familial risk of PDAC.

METHODS

This is a cohort study of 321 individuals from 258 kindreds suspected of being FPC and undergoing secondary screening for PDAC through the European Registry of Hereditary Pancreatitis and Familial Pancreatic Cancer (EUROPAC). Computerised tomography, endoscopic ultrasound of the pancreas and magnetic resonance imaging were used. The risk of being a carrier of a dominant mutation predisposing to pancreatic cancer was stratified into three even categories (low, medium and high) based on: Mendelian probability, the number of PDAC cases and the number of people at risk in a kindred.

RESULTS

There was a median (interquartile range (IQR)) follow-up of 2 (0-5) years and a median (IQR) number of investigations per participant of 4 (2-6). One PDAC, two low-grade neuroendocrine tumours and 41 cystic lesions were identified, including 23 IPMN (22 branch-duct (BD)). The PDAC case occurred in the top 10% of risk, and the BD-IPMN cases were evenly distributed amongst risk categories: low (6/107), medium (10/107) and high (6/107) (P = 0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of finding BD-IPMN was independent of genetic predisposition and so they should be managed according to guidelines for incidental finding of IPMN.

German National Case Collection for familial pancreatic Cancer (FaPaCa) - acceptance and psychological aspects of a pancreatic cancer screening program

Background

Pancreatic cancer screening is recommended to individuals at risk (IAR) of familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) families, but little is known about the acceptance of such screening programs. Thus, the acceptance and psychological aspects of a controlled FPC screening program was evaluated.

Methods

IAR of FPC families underwent comprehensive counseling by a geneticist and pancreatologist prior to the proposed screening. Participating IAR, IAR who discontinued screening and IAR who never participated in the screening program were invited to complete questionnaires to assess the motivation for participating in surveillance, cancer worries, structural distress and experiences with participation. Questionnaires were completed anonymously to receive most accurate answers.

Results

Of 286 IAR to whom pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) screening was recommended, 139 (48.6%) IAR regularly participated (group 1), 49 (17.1%) IAR (group 2) discontinued screening after median 1 (1–10) screening visits and 98 (34.2%) IAR (group 3) never underwent screening. The overall response rate of questionnaires was 67% (189/286) with rates of 100% (139 of 139 IAR), 49% (29 of 49 IAR) and 23.4% (23 of 98 IAR) for groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively. At least 93% of IAR felt adequately informed about the screening program after initial counseling. However, only 38.8% received knowledge of or the recommendation for PDAC screening by physicians. The reported cancer-related distress and the fear of investigations were highest in group 1, but acceptably low in all three groups. The main reasons to discontinue or not to participate in screening were the time efforts and travel costs (groups 2 and 3 48,7%).

Conclusion

Less than 50% of IAR regularly participate in a proposed PDAC screening program, although the associated psychological burden is quite low. Physicians should be educated about high risk PDAC groups and screening recommendations. Time and travel efforts must be reduced to encourage more IAR to participate in a recommended screening.

Screening/surveillance programs for pancreatic cancer in familial high-risk individuals: A systematic review and proportion meta-analysis of screening results

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Screening/surveillance programs for pancreatic cancer (PC) in familial high-risk individuals (FPC-HRI) have been widely reported, but their merits remain unclear. The data reported so far are heterogeneous-especially in terms of screening yield. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of currently available data coming from screening/surveillance programs to evaluate the proportion of screening goal achievement (SGA), overall surgery and unnecessary surgery.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed and the Cochrane Library database from January 2000 to December 2016to identify studies reporting results of screening/surveillance programs including cohorts of FPC-HRI. The main outcome measures were weighted proportion of SGA, overall surgery, and unnecessary surgery among the FPC-HRI cohort, using a random effects model. SGA was defined as any diagnosis of resectable PC, PanIN3, or high-grade dysplasia intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (HGD-IPMN). Unnecessary surgery was defined as any other final pathology.

RESULTS

In a meta-analysis of 16 studies reporting on 1551 FPC-HRI cases, 30 subjects (1.82%), received a diagnosis of PC, PanIN3 or HGD-IPMNs. The pooled proportion of SGA was 1.4%(95% CI 0.8-2, p < 0.001, I² = 0%). The pooled proportion of overall surgery was 6%(95% CI 4.1-7.9, p < 0.001, I² = 60.91%). The pooled proportion of unnecessary surgery was 68.1%(95% CI 59.5-76.7, p < 0.001, I² = 4.05%); 105 subjects (6.3%) received surgery, and the overall number of diagnoses from non-malignant specimens was 156 (1.5 lesion/subject).

CONCLUSIONS

The weighted proportion of SGA of screening/surveillance programs published thus far is excellent. However, the probability of receiving surgery during the screening/surveillance program is non-negligible, and unnecessary surgery is a potential negative outcome.

Results of surveillance in individuals at high-risk of pancreatic cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Data on surveillance for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in high-risk individuals (HRIs) with "familial pancreatic cancer" (FPC) and specific syndromes are limited and heterogeneous.

Objective

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of PDAC surveillance studies in HRIs.

Methods

Prevalence of solid/cystic pancreatic lesions and of lesions considered a successful target of surveillance (proven resectable PDAC and high-grade precursors) was pooled across studies. The rate of lesions diagnosed by endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS)/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and across different HRI groups was calculated.

Results

Sixteen studies incorporating 1588 HRIs were included. The pooled prevalence of pancreatic solid and cystic lesions was 5.8% and 20.2%, respectively. The pooled prevalence of patients with lesions considered a successful target of surveillance was 3.3%, being similar to EUS or MRI and varying across subgroups, being 3% in FPC, 4% in hereditary pancreatitis, 5% in familial melanoma, 6.3% in hereditary breast/ovarian cancer, and 12.2% in Peutz-Jeghers syndrome. The pooled estimated rate of lesions considered a successful target of surveillance during follow-up was 5/1000 person-years.

Conclusion

Surveillance programs identify successful target lesions in 3.3% of HRIs with a similar yield of EUS and MRI and an annual risk of 0.5%. A higher rate of target lesions was reported in HRIs with specific DNA mutations.

Surveillance for neoplasia in the pancreas

Despite its low incidence in the general population, pancreatic cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality. Survival greatly depends on operability, but most patients present with unresectable disease. Therefore, there is great interest in the early detection of pancreatic cancer and its precursor lesions by surveillance. Worldwide, several programs have been initiated for individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer. Their first results suggest that surveillance in high-risk individuals is feasible, but their effectiveness in decreasing mortality remains to be proven. This review will discuss which individuals are eligible for surveillance, which lesions are aimed to be detected, and which surveillance modalities are being used in current clinical practice. Furthermore, it addresses the management of abnormalities found during surveillance and topics for future research.