Spatial modelling and ecology of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in China

Strategies for tackling Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis: A systematic review and comparison of transmission models, including an assessment of the wider Taeniidae family transmission models

Background

The cestode Taenia solium causes the neglected (zoonotic) tropical disease cysticercosis, a leading cause of preventable epilepsy in endemic low and middle-income countries. Transmission models can inform current scaling-up of control efforts by helping to identify, validate and optimise control and elimination strategies as proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Methodology/Principal findings

A systematic literature search was conducted using the PRISMA approach to identify and compare existing T. solium transmission models, and related Taeniidae infection transmission models. In total, 28 modelling papers were identified, of which four modelled T. solium exclusively. Different modelling approaches for T. solium included deterministic, Reed-Frost, individual-based, decision-tree, and conceptual frameworks. Simulated interventions across models agreed on the importance of coverage for impactful effectiveness to be achieved.

Other Taeniidae infection transmission models comprised force-of-infection (FoI), population-based (mainly Echinococcus granulosus) and individual-based (mainly E. multilocularis) modelling approaches. Spatial structure has also been incorporated (E. multilocularis and Taenia ovis) in recognition of spatial aggregation of parasite eggs in the environment and movement of wild animal host populations.

Conclusions/Significance

Gaps identified from examining the wider Taeniidae family models highlighted the potential role of FoI modelling to inform model parameterisation, as well as the need for spatial modelling and suitable structuring of interventions as key areas for future T. solium model development. We conclude that working with field partners to address data gaps and conducting cross-model validation with baseline and longitudinal data will be critical to building consensus-led and epidemiological setting-appropriate intervention strategies to help fulfil the WHO targets.

Taenia solium infection in humans (taeniosis and neurocysticercosis) and pigs (cysticercosis) presents a significant global public health and economic challenge. The World Health Organization has called for validated strategies and wider consensus on which strategies are suitable for different epidemiological settings to support successful T. solium control and elimination efforts. Transmission models can be used to inform these strategies. Therefore, a modelling review was undertaken to assess the current state and gaps relating to T. solium epidemiological modelling. The literature surrounding models for other Taeniidae family infections was also considered, identifying approaches to aid further development of existing T. solium models. A variety of different modelling approaches have been used for T. solium including differences in structural and parametric assumptions associated with T. solium transmission biology. Despite these differences, all models agreed on the importance of coverage on intervention effectiveness. Other Taeniidae family models highlighted the need for incorporating spatial structure when necessary to capture aggregation of transmission stages in the environment and movement of animal hosts.

Modelling the regional vulnerability to Echinococcosis based on environmental factors using fuzzy inference system: A case study of Lorestan Province, west of Iran

Background and aim

Echinococcosis as a zoonosis disease is one of the most important parasitic helminth that is affected by many risk factors such as the environmental factors. Thus, we predicted the regional vulnerability to Echinococcosis based on environmental factors using a fuzzy inference system (FIS) in Lorestan Province.

Methods

Our study was cross-sectional study on 200 patients from Lorestan Province (west of Iran) who underwent surgery for hydatidosis between October 2005 and November 2014. In order to model the vulnerability to Echinococcosis, first we determined the effective environmental variables. In the next step, the FIS was designed and implemented using MATLAB v.2012 software. Thus, definition and determination of linguistic variables, linguistic values, and their range were performed based on expert knowledge. Then, the membership functions of inputs (environmental variables) and output (vulnerability to Echinococcosis) were defined. A fuzzy rules base was formed. Also, the defuzzification of output was done using a centroid defuzzification function. To test the accuracy of the predictive model, we calculated the AUC (to this purpose, we used four different thresholds, 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%) using IDRISI Selva v.17.0 software.

Results

Based on the results of this study, Aligoudarz and Koohdasht counties were identified as a highest and lowest risk area in Lorestan, respectively. The results showed that a predictive model was more efficient than a random model (AUC>0.5). Also, potential vulnerable areas cover 78.29% at threshold of 5%, 60.72% at threshold of 10%, 43.54% at threshold of 15%, and 39.82% at threshold of 20% of the study area.

Conclusion

According to the success of this research, we emphasized the necessity of attention to fuzzy approach to model vulnerability to hydatidosis. This approach can provide a practical economic basis for making informed preventive services decisions and the allocation of health resources.

Potential risk factors associated with human alveolar echinococcosis: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a severe zoonotic disease caused by the metacestode stage of Echinococcus multilocularis. AE is commonly associated with a long incubation period that may last for more than ten years. The objective of this systematic literature review was to identify and summarize the current knowledge on statistically relevant potential risk factors (PRFs) associated with AE in humans.

Methodology/Principal findings

Six bibliographic databases were searched, generating a total of 1,009 publications. Following the removal of duplicate records and the exclusion of papers that failed to meet the criteria of a previously agreed a priori protocol, 23 publications were retained; however, 6 of these did not contain data in a format that allowed their inclusion in the meta-analysis. The remaining 17 publications (6 case-control and 11 cross-sectional studies) were meta-analysed to investigate associations between AE and PRFs. Pooled odds ratios (OR) were used as a measure of effect and separately analysed for case-control and cross-sectional studies. In the case-control studies, the following PRFs for human AE showed higher odds of outcome: “dog ownership”, “cat ownership”, “have a kitchen garden”, “occupation: farmer”, “haymaking in meadows not adjacent to water”, “went to forests for vocational reasons”, “chewed grass” and “hunting / handling foxes”. In the cross-sectional studies, the following PRFs showed higher odds of outcome: “dog ownership”, “play with dogs”, “gender: female”, “age over 20 years”, “ethnic group: Tibetan”, “low income”, “source of drinking water other than well or tap”, “occupation: herding” and “low education”. Our meta-analysis confirmed that the chance of AE transmission through ingestion of food and water contaminated with E. multilocularis eggs exists, but showed also that food- and water-borne PRFs do not significantly increase the risk of infection.

Conclusions/significance

This systematic review analysed international peer-reviewed articles that have over the years contributed to our current understanding of the epidemiology of human AE. The identification of potential risk factors may help researchers and decision makers improve surveillance and/or preventive measures that aim at decreasing human infection with E. multilocularis. More primary studies are needed to confirm potential risk factors and their role in the epidemiology of human AE.

Human alveolar echinococcosis is a severe zoonotic disease caused by the metacestode stage of the tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis. The objective of this systematic literature review was to identify and summarize the current knowledge on potential risk factors associated with human alveolar echinococcosis. The categories of potential risk factors included dog-related factors such as dog ownership or play with dogs; vocational factors like being a farmer or handling foxes; human habits such as chewing grass; gender (being female) and socio-cultural factors like being Tibetan or having a low income or poor education, which may be relevant only in particular endemic areas. The identification of potential risk factors may help identify strategies that aim to decrease human infection with E. multilocularis.

The landscape epidemiology of echinococcoses

Echinococcoses are parasitic diseases of major public health importance globally. Human infection results in chronic disease with poor prognosis and serious medical, social and economic consequences for vulnerable populations. According to recent estimates, the geographical distribution of Echinococcus spp. infections is expanding and becoming an emerging and re-emerging problem in several regions of the world. Echinococcosis endemicity is geographically heterogeneous and over time it may be affected by global environmental change. Therefore, landscape epidemiology offers a unique opportunity to quantify and predict the ecological risk of infection at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we review the most relevant environmental sources of spatial variation in human echinococcosis risk, and describe the potential applications of landscape epidemiological studies to characterise the current patterns of parasite transmission across natural and human-altered landscapes. We advocate future work promoting the use of this approach as a support tool for decision-making that facilitates the design, implementation and monitoring of spatially targeted interventions to reduce the burden of human echinococcoses in disease-endemic areas.

A village-based multidisciplinary study on factors affecting the intensity of cystic echinococcosis in an endemic region of the Tibetan plateau, China

We investigated and quantified the factors which may affect the prevalence of cystic echinococcosis caused by Echinococcus granulosus in Rangtang County using a multidisciplinary approach. From a previously performed field survey, epidemiological data were linked with environmental data. Altitude and land surface temperature were extracted from remote-sensing images. Cumulative logistic regression models were used to identify and quantify the potential risk factors. The multiple regression models confirmed that yaks (χ² = 4·0447, P = 0·0443), dogs (χ² = 8·3455, P = 0·0039) and altitude (χ2 = 7·6223, P = 0·0058) were positively correlated with the prevalence of cystic echinococcosis, while land surface temperature may have a negative association. The findings showed that dogs and yaks play the most important role in the transmission of cystic echinococcosis, while altitude and land surface temperature may also be involved in the transmission.

Environmental changes impacting Echinococcus transmission: research to support predictive surveillance and control

Echinococcosis, resulting from infection with tapeworms Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, has a global distribution with 2-3 million people affected and 200,000 new cases diagnosed annually. Costs of treatment for humans and economic losses to the livestock industry have been estimated to exceed $2 billion. These figures are likely to be an underestimation given the challenges with its early detection and the lack of mandatory official reporting policies in most countries. Despite this global burden, echinococcosis remains a neglected zoonosis. The importance of environmental factors in influencing the transmission intensity and distribution of Echinococcus spp. is increasingly being recognized. With the advent of climate change and the influence of global population expansion, food insecurity and land-use changes, questions about the potential impact of changing temperature, rainfall patterns, increasing urbanization, deforestation, grassland degradation and overgrazing on zoonotic disease transmission are being raised. This study is the first to comprehensively review how climate change and anthropogenic environmental factors contribute to the transmission of echinococcosis mediated by changes in animal population dynamics, spatial overlap of competent hosts and the creation of improved conditions for egg survival. We advocate rigorous scientific research to establish the causal link between specific environmental variables and echinococcosis in humans and the incorporation of environmental, animal and human data collection within a sentinel site surveillance network that will complement satellite remote-sensing information. Identifying the environmental determinants of transmission risk to humans will be vital for the design of more accurate predictive models to guide cost-effective pre-emptive public health action against echinococcosis.

Impact of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes on Echinococcus transmission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the People's Republic of China

Echinococcus transmission is known to be affected by various environmental factors, which may be modified by human influence or natural events including global warming. Considerable population growth in the last fifty years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), has led to dramatic increases in deforestation and modified agricultural practices. In turn, this has resulted in many changes in the habitats for the definitive and intermediate hosts of both Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, which have increased the risks for transmission of both parasites, affecting echinococcosis prevalence and human disease. Ecological environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities and natural events drive Echinococcus transmission and NHAR provides a notable example illustrating how human activity can impact on a parasitic infection of major public health significance. It is very important to continually monitor these environmental (including climatic) factors that drive the distribution of Echinococcus spp. and their impact on transmission to humans because such information is necessary to formulate reliable future public health policy for echinococcosis control programs and to prevent disease spread.

Monitoring of environmental contamination by Echinococcus multilocularis in an urban fringe forest park in Hokkaido, Japan

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis environmental contamination in an urban fringe-the Nopporo forest park of Sapporo city, Hokkaido, Japan. A secondary aim was to determine possible transmission risks areas by associating percentage occurrence of E. multilocularis-positive faeces with the different land-use classes.

METHODS

Wild fox faeces collected from the environment were examined by intravital methods, such as the taeniid egg sucrose floatation technique, E. multilocularis coproantigen enzyme-linked immunosorbent analysis and DNA test of taeniid eggs by PCR. Geospatial maps produced by the Global Positioning System and Landsat data were analysed using geographic information system software to determine the association between percentage occurrences of E. multilocularis-positive fox faeces and land-use classes.

RESULTS

Our findings showed high prevalence rates in both E. multilocularis egg and coproantigen-positive faeces (16 and 49%, respectively) in the investigated urban fringe forest park. Data revealed that percentage occurrence of E. multilocularis-positive fox faeces was associated with land-use classes, such as forest and open field (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that Nopporo forest park in the urban fringe of Sapporo city, Hokkaido is a reservoir with a high prevalence of zoonotic infective agents for alveolar echinococcosis. Our findings suggest that interface habitats between forests or woodlands and open fields are indispensable for continued maintenance of the life-cycle of E. multilocularis and, as such, constitute high risk areas for echinococcosis transmission.

Rodents as shared indicators for zoonotic parasites of carnivores in urban environments

Rodents are shared intermediate or paratenic hosts for Echinococcus multilocularis, Toxocara spp. and Toxoplasma gondii, and may serve as valuable indicators for assessing the occurrence and the level of environmental contamination and infection pressure with free-living stages of these zoonotic parasites. We investigated 658 non-commensal rodents for parasite infections in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland. The prevalence of infection with E. multilocularis was highest in Arvicola terrestris captured in the north-western area (16.5%, CI: 10.1%-24.8%), possibly reflecting a higher red fox density due to the low incidence of sarcoptic mange in this part of the canton. The exposure rate to Toxocara spp. was highest in the urban area (13.2%, CI: 7.9%-20.3%), and may account for higher densities of domestic carnivore and red fox definitive hosts within the city. Exposure to T. gondii was widespread (5.0%, CI: 3.2-7.4%), indicating a ubiquitous distribution of infected cat definitive hosts. Interestingly, a widespread distribution of Taenia taeniaeformis, a parasite mainly transmitted by cats, was similarly evidenced in A. terrestris. Distinct spatial patterns for the different zoonotic parasites likely reflected differences in distribution, abundance, and habitat use of the respective definitive hosts. These results highlight the potential value of rodents as shared indicators for these pathogens.

Spatial heterogeneity of parasite co-infection: Determinants and geostatistical prediction at regional scales

Multiple parasite infections are widespread in the developing world and understanding their geographical distribution is important for spatial targeting of differing intervention packages. We investigated the spatial epidemiology of mono- and co-infection with helminth parasites in East Africa and developed a geostatistical model to predict infection risk. The data used for the analysis were taken from standardised school surveys of Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm (Ancylostoma duodenale/Necator americanus) carried out between 1999 and 2005 in East Africa. Prevalence of mono- and co-infection was modelled using satellite-derived environmental and demographic variables as potential predictors. A Bayesian multi-nominal geostatistical model was developed for each infection category for producing maps of predicted co-infection risk. We show that heterogeneities in co-infection with S. mansoni and hookworm are influenced primarily by the distribution of S. mansoni, rather than the distribution of hookworm, and that temperature, elevation and distance to large water bodies are reliable predictors of the spatial large-scale distribution of co-infection. On the basis of these results, we developed a validated geostatistical model of the distribution of co-infection at a scale that is relevant for planning regional disease control efforts that simultaneously target multiple parasite species.

Echinococcosis in China, a review of the epidemiology of Echinococcus spp

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) and alveolar echinococcosis (AE) are highly significant infectious diseases occurring worldwide and caused by metacestodes of tapeworms Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, respectively. Both human CE and AE have highest prevalence rates in western and northwestern China. Livestock is the main intermediate host of E. granulosus, and wild small mammal are the main intermediate hosts of E. multilocularis. Since they range freely in pastoral areas, prey on wild small mammals and offal of livestock after slaughter, and have close relationships with humans, domestic dogs are the most important definitive host of both Echinococcus spp. with the highest risk of transmitting CE and AE to humans. Pastoralism is the occupation with the highest risk of being infected with the both kinds of echinococcosis due to the proximity of livestock, dogs, and wildlife host species. In this review, we summarize the epidemiology of human echinococcosis, the situation of parasite transmission in animal hosts, and possible transmission patterns in China. In addition, human activities and their potential influence on the transmission of echinococcosis are also discussed.