Efficient probabilistic model personalization integrating uncertainty on data and parameters: Application to eikonal-diffusion models in cardiac electrophysiology

Computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmogenesis: toward clinical translation

The complexity of cardiac electrophysiology, involving dynamic changes in numerous components across multiple spatial (from ion channel to organ) and temporal (from milliseconds to days) scales, makes an intuitive or empirical analysis of cardiac arrhythmogenesis challenging. Multiscale mechanistic computational models of cardiac electrophysiology provide precise control over individual parameters, and their reproducibility enables a thorough assessment of arrhythmia mechanisms. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of models of cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias, from the single cell to the organ level, and how they can be leveraged to better understand rhythm disorders in cardiac disease and to improve heart patient care. Key issues related to model development based on experimental data are discussed, and major families of human cardiomyocyte models and their applications are highlighted. An overview of organ-level computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology and its clinical applications in personalized arrhythmia risk assessment and patient-specific therapy of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias is provided. The advancements presented here highlight how patient-specific computational models of the heart reconstructed from patient data have achieved success in predicting risk of sudden cardiac death and guiding optimal treatments of heart rhythm disorders. Finally, an outlook toward potential future advances, including the combination of mechanistic modeling and machine learning/artificial intelligence, is provided. As the field of cardiology is embarking on a journey toward precision medicine, personalized modeling of the heart is expected to become a key technology to guide pharmaceutical therapy, deployment of devices, and surgical interventions.

Fast Posterior Estimation of Cardiac Electrophysiological Model Parameters via Bayesian Active Learning

Probabilistic estimation of cardiac electrophysiological model parameters serves an important step toward model personalization and uncertain quantification. The expensive computation associated with these model simulations, however, makes direct Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of the posterior probability density function (pdf) of model parameters computationally intensive. Approximated posterior pdfs resulting from replacing the simulation model with a computationally efficient surrogate, on the other hand, have seen limited accuracy. In this study, we present a Bayesian active learning method to directly approximate the posterior pdf function of cardiac model parameters, in which we intelligently select training points to query the simulation model in order to learn the posterior pdf using a small number of samples. We integrate a generative model into Bayesian active learning to allow approximating posterior pdf of high-dimensional model parameters at the resolution of the cardiac mesh. We further introduce new acquisition functions to focus the selection of training points on better approximating the shape rather than the modes of the posterior pdf of interest. We evaluated the presented method in estimating tissue excitability in a 3D cardiac electrophysiological model in a range of synthetic and real-data experiments. We demonstrated its improved accuracy in approximating the posterior pdf compared to Bayesian active learning using regular acquisition functions, and substantially reduced computational cost in comparison to existing standard or accelerated MCMC sampling.

Applications of artificial intelligence in cardiovascular imaging

Research into artificial intelligence (AI) has made tremendous progress over the past decade. In particular, the AI-powered analysis of images and signals has reached human-level performance in many applications owing to the efficiency of modern machine learning methods, in particular deep learning using convolutional neural networks. Research into the application of AI to medical imaging is now very active, especially in the field of cardiovascular imaging because of the challenges associated with acquiring and analysing images of this dynamic organ. In this Review, we discuss the clinical questions in cardiovascular imaging that AI can be used to address and the principal methodological AI approaches that have been developed to solve the related image analysis problems. Some approaches are purely data-driven and rely mainly on statistical associations, whereas others integrate anatomical and physiological information through additional statistical, geometric and biophysical models of the human heart. In a structured manner, we provide representative examples of each of these approaches, with particular attention to the underlying computational imaging challenges. Finally, we discuss the remaining limitations of AI approaches in cardiovascular imaging (such as generalizability and explainability) and how they can be overcome.

Bayesian Calibration of Electrophysiology Models Using Restitution Curve Emulators

Calibration of cardiac electrophysiology models is a fundamental aspect of model personalization for predicting the outcomes of cardiac therapies, simulation testing of device performance for a range of phenotypes, and for fundamental research into cardiac function. Restitution curves provide information on tissue function and can be measured using clinically feasible measurement protocols. We introduce novel "restitution curve emulators" as probabilistic models for performing model exploration, sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian calibration to noisy data. These emulators are built by decomposing restitution curves using principal component analysis and modeling the resulting coordinates with respect to model parameters using Gaussian processes. Restitution curve emulators can be used to study parameter identifiability via sensitivity analysis of restitution curve components and rapid inference of the posterior distribution of model parameters given noisy measurements. Posterior uncertainty about parameters is critical for making predictions from calibrated models, since many parameter settings can be consistent with measured data and yet produce very different model behaviors under conditions not effectively probed by the measurement protocols. Restitution curve emulators are therefore promising probabilistic tools for calibrating electrophysiology models.

Data integration for the numerical simulation of cardiac electrophysiology

The increasing availability of extensive and accurate clinical data is rapidly shaping cardiovascular care by improving the understanding of physiological and pathological mechanisms of the cardiovascular system and opening new frontiers in designing therapies and interventions. In this direction, mathematical and numerical models provide a complementary relevant tool, able not only to reproduce patient-specific clinical indicators but also to predict and explore unseen scenarios. With this goal, clinical data are processed and provided as inputs to the mathematical model, which quantitatively describes the physical processes that occur in the cardiac tissue. In this paper, the process of integration of clinical data and mathematical models is discussed. Some challenges and contributions in the field of cardiac electrophysiology are reported.

Markov chain Monte Carlo with Gaussian processes for fast parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in a 1D fluid-dynamics model of the pulmonary circulation

The past few decades have witnessed an explosive synergy between physics and the life sciences. In particular, physical modelling in medicine and physiology is a topical research area. The present work focuses on parameter inference and uncertainty quantification in a 1D fluid-dynamics model for quantitative physiology: the pulmonary blood circulation. The practical challenge is the estimation of the patient-specific biophysical model parameters, which cannot be measured directly. In principle this can be achieved based on a comparison between measured and predicted data. However, predicting data requires solving a system of partial differential equations (PDEs), which usually have no closed-form solution, and repeated numerical integrations as part of an adaptive estimation procedure are computationally expensive. In the present article, we demonstrate how fast parameter estimation combined with sound uncertainty quantification can be achieved by a combination of statistical emulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We compare a range of state-of-the-art MCMC algorithms and emulation strategies, and assess their performance in terms of their accuracy and computational efficiency. The long-term goal is to develop a method for reliable disease prognostication in real time, and our work is an important step towards an automatic clinical decision support system.

Assessing model mismatch and model selection in a Bayesian uncertainty quantification analysis of a fluid-dynamics model of pulmonary blood circulation

This study uses Bayesian inference to quantify the uncertainty of model parameters and haemodynamic predictions in a one-dimensional pulmonary circulation model based on an integration of mouse haemodynamic and micro-computed tomography imaging data. We emphasize an often neglected, though important source of uncertainty: in the mathematical model form due to the discrepancy between the model and the reality, and in the measurements due to the wrong noise model (jointly called 'model mismatch'). We demonstrate that minimizing the mean squared error between the measured and the predicted data (the conventional method) in the presence of model mismatch leads to biased and overly confident parameter estimates and haemodynamic predictions. We show that our proposed method allowing for model mismatch, which we represent with Gaussian processes, corrects the bias. Additionally, we compare a linear and a nonlinear wall model, as well as models with different vessel stiffness relations. We use formal model selection analysis based on the Watanabe Akaike information criterion to select the model that best predicts the pulmonary haemodynamics. Results show that the nonlinear pressure-area relationship with stiffness dependent on the unstressed radius predicts best the data measured in a control mouse.

Sensitivity analysis of an electrophysiology model for the left ventricle

Modelling the cardiac electrophysiology entails dealing with the uncertainties related to the input parameters such as the heart geometry and the electrical conductivities of the tissues, thus calling for an uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the results. Since the chambers of the heart have different shapes and tissues, in order to make the problem affordable, here we focus on the left ventricle with the aim of identifying which of the uncertain inputs mostly affect its electrophysiology. In a first phase, the uncertainty of the input parameters is evaluated using data available from the literature and the output quantities of interest (QoIs) of the problem are defined. According to the polynomial chaos expansion, a training dataset is then created by sampling the parameter space using a quasi-Monte Carlo method whereas a smaller independent dataset is used for the validation of the resulting metamodel. The latter is exploited to run a global sensitivity analysis with nonlinear variance-based indices and thus reduce the input parameter space accordingly. Thereafter, the uncertainty probability distribution of the QoIs are evaluated using a direct UQ strategy on a larger dataset and the results discussed in the light of the medical knowledge.

Integration of activation maps of epicardial veins in computational cardiac electrophysiology

In this work we address the issue of validating the monodomain equation used in combination with the Bueno-Orovio ionic model for the prediction of the activation times in cardiac electro-physiology of the left ventricle. To this aim, we consider four patients who suffered from Left Bundle Branch Block (LBBB). We use activation maps performed at the septum as input data for the model and maps at the epicardial veins for the validation. In particular, a first set (half) of the latter are used to estimate the conductivities of the patient and a second set (the remaining half) to compute the errors of the numerical simulations. We find an excellent agreement between measures and numerical results. Our validated computational tool could be used to accurately predict activation times at the epicardial veins with a short mapping, i.e. by using only a part (the most proximal) of the standard acquisition points, thus reducing the invasive procedure and exposure to radiation.

Computational models in cardiology

The treatment of individual patients in cardiology practice increasingly relies on advanced imaging, genetic screening and devices. As the amount of imaging and other diagnostic data increases, paralleled by the greater capacity to personalize treatment, the difficulty of using the full array of measurements of a patient to determine an optimal treatment seems also to be paradoxically increasing. Computational models are progressively addressing this issue by providing a common framework for integrating multiple data sets from individual patients. These models, which are based on physiology and physics rather than on population statistics, enable computational simulations to reveal diagnostic information that would have otherwise remained concealed and to predict treatment outcomes for individual patients. The inherent need for patient-specific models in cardiology is clear and is driving the rapid development of tools and techniques for creating personalized methods to guide pharmaceutical therapy, deployment of devices and surgical interventions.

Probabilistic Interpolation of Uncertain Local Activation Times on Human Atrial Manifolds

OBJECTIVE

Local activation time (LAT) mapping of the atria is important for targeted treatment of atrial arrhythmias, but current methods do not interpolate on the atrial manifold and neglect uncertainties associated with LAT observations. In this paper, we describe novel methods to, first, quantify uncertainties in LAT arising from bipolar electrogram analysis and assignment of electrode recordings to the anatomical mesh, second, interpolate uncertain LAT measurements directly on left atrial manifolds to obtain complete probabilistic activation maps, and finally, interpolate LAT jointly across both the manifold and different S1-S2 pacing protocols.

METHODS

A modified center of mass approach was used to process bipolar electrograms, yielding a LAT estimate and error distribution from the electrogram morphology. An error distribution for assigning measurements to the anatomical mesh was estimated. Probabilistic LAT maps were produced by interpolating on a left atrial manifold using Gaussian Markov random fields, taking into account observation errors and characterizing LAT predictions by their mean and standard deviation. This approach was extended to interpolate across S1-S2 pacing protocols.

RESULTS

We evaluated our approach using recordings from three patients undergoing atrial ablation. Cross-validation showed consistent and accurate prediction of LAT observations both at different locations on the left atrium and for different S1-S2 intervals.

SIGNIFICANCE

Interpolation of scalar and vector fields across anatomical structures from point measurements is a challenging problem in biomedical engineering, compounded by uncertainties in measurements and meshes. New methods and approaches are required, and in this paper, we have demonstrated an effective method for probabilistic interpolation of uncertain LAT.

Population-based priors in cardiac model personalisation for consistent parameter estimation in heterogeneous databases

Personalised cardiac models are a virtual representation of the patient heart, with parameter values for which the simulation fits the available clinical measurements. Models usually have a large number of parameters while the available data for a given patient are typically limited to a small set of measurements; thus, the parameters cannot be estimated uniquely. This is a practical obstacle for clinical applications, where accurate parameter values can be important. Here, we explore an original approach based on an algorithm called Iteratively Updated Priors (IUP), in which we perform successive personalisations of a full database through maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, where the prior probability at an iteration is set from the distribution of personalised parameters in the database at the previous iteration. At the convergence of the algorithm, estimated parameters of the population lie on a linear subspace of reduced (and possibly sufficient) dimension in which for each case of the database, there is a (possibly unique) parameter value for which the simulation fits the measurements. We first show how this property can help the modeller select a relevant parameter subspace for personalisation. In addition, since the resulting priors in this subspace represent the population statistics in this subspace, they can be used to perform consistent parameter estimation for cases where measurements are possibly different or missing in the database, which we illustrate with the personalisation of a heterogeneous database of 811 cases.

Patient-Specific Identification of Atrial Flutter Vulnerability-A Computational Approach to Reveal Latent Reentry Pathways

Atypical atrial flutter (AFlut) is a reentrant arrhythmia which patients frequently develop after ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF). Indeed, substrate modifications during AF ablation can increase the likelihood to develop AFlut and it is clinically not feasible to reliably and sensitively test if a patient is vulnerable to AFlut. Here, we present a novel method based on personalized computational models to identify pathways along which AFlut can be sustained in an individual patient. We build a personalized model of atrial excitation propagation considering the anatomy as well as the spatial distribution of anisotropic conduction velocity and repolarization characteristics based on a combination of a priori knowledge on the population level and information derived from measurements performed in the individual patient. The fast marching scheme is employed to compute activation times for stimuli from all parts of the atria. Potential flutter pathways are then identified by tracing loops from wave front collision sites and constricting them using a geometric snake approach under consideration of the heterogeneous wavelength condition. In this way, all pathways along which AFlut can be sustained are identified. Flutter pathways can be instantiated by using an eikonal-diffusion phase extrapolation approach and a dynamic multifront fast marching simulation. In these dynamic simulations, the initial pattern eventually turns into the one driven by the dominant pathway, which is the only pathway that can be observed clinically. We assessed the sensitivity of the flutter pathway maps with respect to conduction velocity and its anisotropy. Moreover, we demonstrate the application of tailored models considering disease-specific repolarization properties (healthy, AF-remodeled, potassium channel mutations) as well as applicabiltiy on a clinical dataset. Finally, we tested how AFlut vulnerability of these substrates is modulated by exemplary antiarrhythmic drugs (amiodarone, dronedarone). Our novel method allows to assess the vulnerability of an individual patient to develop AFlut based on the personal anatomical, electrophysiological, and pharmacological characteristics. In contrast to clinical electrophysiological studies, our computational approach provides the means to identify all possible AFlut pathways and not just the currently dominant one. This allows to consider all relevant AFlut pathways when tailoring clinical ablation therapy in order to reduce the development and recurrence of AFlut.

Uniqueness of local myocardial strain patterns with respect to activation time and contractility of the failing heart: a computational study

Background

Myocardial deformation measured by strain is used to detect electro-mechanical abnormalities in cardiac tissue. Estimation of myocardial properties from regional strain patterns when multiple pathologies are present is therefore a promising application of computer modelling. However, if different tissue properties lead to indistinguishable strain patterns (‘degeneracy’), the applicability of any such method will be limited. We investigated whether estimation of local activation time (AT) and contractility from myocardial strain patterns is theoretically possible.

Methods

For four different global cardiac pathologies local myocardial strain patterns for 1025 combinations of AT and contractility were simulated with a computational model (CircAdapt). For each strain pattern, a cohort of similar patterns was found within estimated measurement error using the sum of least-squared differences. Cohort members came from (1) the same pathology only, and (2) all four pathologies. Uncertainty was calculated as accuracy and precision of cohort members in parameter space. Connectedness within the cohorts was also studied.

Results

We found that cohorts drawn from one pathology had parameters with adjacent values although their distribution was neither constant nor symmetrical. In comparison cohorts drawn from four pathologies had disconnected components with drastically different parameter values and accuracy and precision values up to three times higher.

Conclusions

Global pathology must be known when extracting AT and contractility from strain patterns, otherwise degeneracy occurs causing unacceptable uncertainty in derived parameters.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12938-018-0614-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A work flow to build and validate patient specific left atrium electrophysiology models from catheter measurements

Biophysical models of the atrium provide a physically constrained framework for describing the current state of an atrium and allow predictions of how that atrium will respond to therapy. We propose a work flow to simulate patient specific electrophysiological heterogeneity from clinical data and validate the resulting biophysical models. In 7 patients, we recorded the atrial anatomy with an electroanatomical mapping system (St Jude Velocity); we then applied an S1-S2 electrical stimulation protocol from the coronary sinus (CS) and the high right atrium (HRA) whilst recording the activation patterns using a PentaRay catheter with 10 bipolar electrodes at 12 ± 2 sites across the atrium. Using only the activation times measured with a PentaRay catheter and caused by a stimulus applied in the CS with a remote catheter we fitted the four parameters for a modified Mitchell-Schaeffer model and the tissue conductivity to the recorded local conduction velocity restitution curve and estimated local effective refractory period. Model parameters were then interpolated across each atrium. The fitted model recapitulated the S1-S2 activation times for CS pacing giving a correlation ranging between 0.81 and 0.98. The model was validated by comparing simulated activations times with the independently recorded HRA pacing S1-S2 activation times, giving a correlation ranging between 0.65 and 0.96. The resulting work flow provides the first validated cohort of models that capture clinically measured patient specific electrophysiological heterogeneity.

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters using Gaussian process-based Markov chain Monte Carlo in cardiac electrophysiology

Model personalization requires the estimation of patient-specific tissue properties in the form of model parameters from indirect and sparse measurement data. Moreover, a low-dimensional representation of the parameter space is needed, which often has a limited ability to reveal the underlying tissue heterogeneity. As a result, significant uncertainty can be associated with the estimated values of the model parameters which, if left unquantified, will lead to unknown variability in model outputs that will hinder their reliable clinical adoption. Probabilistic estimation of model parameters, however, remains an unresolved challenge. Direct Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of the posterior distribution function (pdf) of the parameters is infeasible because it involves repeated evaluations of the computationally expensive simulation model. To accelerate this inference, one popular approach is to construct a computationally efficient surrogate and sample from this approximation. However, by sampling from an approximation, efficiency is gained at the expense of sampling accuracy. In this paper, we address this issue by integrating surrogate modeling of the posterior pdf into accelerating the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampling of the exact posterior pdf. It is achieved by two main components: (1) construction of a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate of the exact posterior pdf by actively selecting training points that allow for a good global approximation accuracy with a focus on the regions of high posterior probability; and (2) use of the GP surrogate to improve the proposal distribution in MH sampling, in order to improve the acceptance rate. The presented framework is evaluated in its estimation of the local tissue excitability of a cardiac electrophysiological model in both synthetic data experiments and real data experiments. In addition, the obtained posterior distributions of model parameters are interpreted in relation to the factors contributing to parameter uncertainty, including different low-dimensional representations of the parameter space, parameter non-identifiability, and parameter correlations.

Scalable and Accurate ECG Simulation for Reaction-Diffusion Models of the Human Heart

Realistic electrocardiogram (ECG) simulation with numerical models is important for research linking cellular and molecular physiology to clinically observable signals, and crucial for patient tailoring of numerical heart models. However, ECG simulation with a realistic torso model is computationally much harder than simulation of cardiac activity itself, so that many studies with sophisticated heart models have resorted to crude approximations of the ECG. This paper shows how the classical concept of electrocardiographic lead fields can be used for an ECG simulation method that matches the realism of modern heart models. The accuracy and resource requirements were compared to those of a full-torso solution for the potential and scaling was tested up to 14,336 cores with a heart model consisting of 11 million nodes. Reference ECGs were computed on a 3.3 billion-node heart-torso mesh at 0.2 mm resolution. The results show that the lead-field method is more efficient than a full-torso solution when the number of simulated samples is larger than the number of computed ECG leads. While the initial computation of the lead fields remains a hard and poorly scalable problem, the ECG computation itself scales almost perfectly and, even for several hundreds of ECG leads, takes much less time than the underlying simulation of cardiac activity.

Validation and Trustworthiness of Multiscale Models of Cardiac Electrophysiology

Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology have a long history in basic science applications and device design and evaluation, but have significant potential for clinical applications in all areas of cardiovascular medicine, including functional imaging and mapping, drug safety evaluation, disease diagnosis, patient selection, and therapy optimisation or personalisation. For all stakeholders to be confident in model-based clinical decisions, cardiac electrophysiological (CEP) models must be demonstrated to be trustworthy and reliable. Credibility, that is, the belief in the predictive capability, of a computational model is primarily established by performing validation, in which model predictions are compared to experimental or clinical data. However, there are numerous challenges to performing validation for highly complex multi-scale physiological models such as CEP models. As a result, credibility of CEP model predictions is usually founded upon a wide range of distinct factors, including various types of validation results, underlying theory, evidence supporting model assumptions, evidence from model calibration, all at a variety of scales from ion channel to cell to organ. Consequently, it is often unclear, or a matter for debate, the extent to which a CEP model can be trusted for a given application. The aim of this article is to clarify potential rationale for the trustworthiness of CEP models by reviewing evidence that has been (or could be) presented to support their credibility. We specifically address the complexity and multi-scale nature of CEP models which makes traditional model evaluation difficult. In addition, we make explicit some of the credibility justification that we believe is implicitly embedded in the CEP modeling literature. Overall, we provide a fresh perspective to CEP model credibility, and build a depiction and categorisation of the wide-ranging body of credibility evidence for CEP models. This paper also represents a step toward the extension of model evaluation methodologies that are currently being developed by the medical device community, to physiological models.

Computational techniques for ECG analysis and interpretation in light of their contribution to medical advances

Widely developed for clinical screening, electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings capture the cardiac electrical activity from the body surface. ECG analysis can therefore be a crucial first step to help diagnose, understand and predict cardiovascular disorders responsible for 30% of deaths worldwide. Computational techniques, and more specifically machine learning techniques and computational modelling are powerful tools for classification, clustering and simulation, and they have recently been applied to address the analysis of medical data, especially ECG data. This review describes the computational methods in use for ECG analysis, with a focus on machine learning and 3D computer simulations, as well as their accuracy, clinical implications and contributions to medical advances. The first section focuses on heartbeat classification and the techniques developed to extract and classify abnormal from regular beats. The second section focuses on patient diagnosis from whole recordings, applied to different diseases. The third section presents real-time diagnosis and applications to wearable devices. The fourth section highlights the recent field of personalized ECG computer simulations and their interpretation. Finally, the discussion section outlines the challenges of ECG analysis and provides a critical assessment of the methods presented. The computational methods reported in this review are a strong asset for medical discoveries and their translation to the clinical world may lead to promising advances.

A finite element model of myocardial infarction using a composite material approach

Computational models are effective tools to study cardiac mechanics under normal and pathological conditions. They can be used to gain insight into the physiology of the heart under these conditions while they are adaptable to computer assisted patient-specific clinical diagnosis and therapeutic procedures. Realistic cardiac mechanics models incorporate tissue active/passive response in conjunction with hyperelasticity and anisotropy. Conventional formulation of such models leads to mathematically-complex problems usually solved by custom-developed non-linear finite element (FE) codes. With a few exceptions, such codes are not available to the research community. This article describes a computational cardiac mechanics model developed such that it can be implemented using off-the-shelf FE solvers while tissue pathologies can be introduced in the model in a straight-forward manner. The model takes into account myocardial hyperelasticity, anisotropy, and active contraction forces. It follows a composite tissue modeling approach where the cardiac tissue is decomposed into two major parts: background and myofibers. The latter is modelled as rebars under initial stresses mimicking the contraction forces. The model was applied in silico to study the mechanics of infarcted left ventricle (LV) of a canine. End-systolic strain components, ejection fraction, and stress distribution attained using this LV model were compared quantitatively and qualitatively to corresponding data obtained from measurements as well as to other corresponding LV mechanics models. This comparison showed very good agreement.

Spatially Adaptive Multi-Scale Optimization for Local Parameter Estimation in Cardiac Electrophysiology

To obtain a patient-specific cardiac electro-physiological (EP) model, it is important to estimate the 3-D distributed tissue properties of the myocardium. Ideally, the tissue property should be estimated at the resolution of the cardiac mesh. However, such high-dimensional estimation faces major challenges in identifiability and computation. Most existing works reduce this dimension by partitioning the cardiac mesh into a pre-defined set of segments. The resulting low-resolution solutions have a limited ability to represent the underlying heterogeneous tissue properties of varying sizes, locations, and distributions. In this paper, we present a novel framework that, going beyond a uniform low-resolution approach, is able to obtain a higher resolution estimation of tissue properties represented by spatially non-uniform resolution. This is achieved by two central elements: 1) a multi-scale coarse-to-fine optimization that facilitates higher resolution optimization using the lower resolution solution and 2) a spatially adaptive decision criterion that retains lower resolution in homogeneous tissue regions and allows higher resolution in heterogeneous tissue regions. The presented framework is evaluated in estimating the local tissue excitability properties of a cardiac EP model on both synthetic and real data experiments. Its performance is compared with optimization using pre-defined segments. Results demonstrate the feasibility of the presented framework to estimate local parameters and to reveal heterogeneous tissue properties at a higher resolution without using a high number of unknowns.

Using physiologically based models for clinical translation: predictive modelling, data interpretation or something in-between?

Heart disease continues to be a significant clinical problem in Western society. Predictive models and simulations that integrate physiological understanding with patient information derived from clinical data have huge potential to contribute to improving our understanding of both the progression and treatment of heart disease. In particular they provide the potential to improve patient selection and optimisation of cardiovascular interventions across a range of pathologies. Currently a significant proportion of this potential is still to be realised. In this paper we discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with this realisation. Reviewing the successful elements of model translation for biophysically based models and the emerging supporting technologies, we propose three distinct modes of clinical translation. Finally we outline the challenges ahead that will be fundamental to overcome if the ultimate goal of fully personalised clinical cardiac care is to be achieved.

Noninvasive Personalization of a Cardiac Electrophysiology Model From Body Surface Potential Mapping

GOAL

We use noninvasive data (body surface potential mapping, BSPM) to personalize the main parameters of a cardiac electrophysiological (EP) model for predicting the response to different pacing conditions.

METHODS

First, an efficient forward model is proposed, coupling the Mitchell-Schaeffer transmembrane potential model with a current dipole formulation. Then, we estimate the main parameters of the cardiac model: activation onset location and tissue conductivity. A large patient-specific database of simulated BSPM is generated, from which specific features are extracted to train a machine learning algorithm. The activation onset location is computed from a Kernel Ridge Regression and a second regression calibrates the global ventricular conductivity.

RESULTS

The evaluation of the results is done both on a benchmark dataset of a patient with premature ventricular contraction (PVC) and on five nonischaemic implanted cardiac resynchonization therapy (CRT) patients with a total of 21 different pacing conditions. Good personalization results were found in terms of the activation onset location for the PVC (mean distance error, MDE = 20.3 mm), for the pacing sites (MDE = 21.7 mm) and for the CRT patients (MDE = 24.6 mm). We tested the predictive power of the personalized model for biventricular pacing and showed that we could predict the new electrical activity patterns with a good accuracy in terms of BSPM signals.

CONCLUSION

We have personalized the cardiac EP model and predicted new patient-specific pacing conditions.

SIGNIFICANCE

This is an encouraging first step towards a noninvasive preoperative prediction of the response to different pacing conditions to assist clinicians for CRT patient selection and therapy planning.

MRI Based Bayesian Personalization of a Tumor Growth Model

The mathematical modeling of brain tumor growth has been the topic of numerous research studies. Most of this work focuses on the reaction-diffusion model, which suggests that the diffusion coefficient and the proliferation rate can be related to clinically relevant information. However, estimating the parameters of the reaction-diffusion model is difficult because of the lack of identifiability of the parameters, the uncertainty in the tumor segmentations, and the model approximation, which cannot perfectly capture the complex dynamics of the tumor evolution. Our approach aims at analyzing the uncertainty in the patient specific parameters of a tumor growth model, by sampling from the posterior probability of the parameters knowing the magnetic resonance images of a given patient. The estimation of the posterior probability is based on: 1) a highly parallelized implementation of the reaction-diffusion equation using the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM), and 2) a high acceptance rate Monte Carlo technique called Gaussian Process Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (GPHMC). We compare this personalization approach with two commonly used methods based on the spherical asymptotic analysis of the reaction-diffusion model, and on a derivative-free optimization algorithm. We demonstrate the performance of the method on synthetic data, and on seven patients with a glioblastoma, the most aggressive primary brain tumor. This Bayesian personalization produces more informative results. In particular, it provides samples from the regions of interest and highlights the presence of several modes for some patients. In contrast, previous approaches based on optimization strategies fail to reveal the presence of different modes, and correlation between parameters.

Infarct Localization From Myocardial Deformation: Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification by Regression From a Low-Dimensional Space

Diagnosing and localizing myocardial infarct is crucial for early patient management and therapy planning. We propose a new method for predicting the location of myocardial infarct from local wall deformation, which has value for risk stratification from routine examinations such as (3D) echocardiography. The pipeline combines non-linear dimensionality reduction of deformation patterns and two multi-scale kernel regressions. Confidence in the diagnosis is assessed by a map of local uncertainties, which integrates plausible infarct locations generated from the space of reduced dimensionality. These concepts were tested on 500 synthetic cases generated from a realistic cardiac electromechanical model, and 108 pairs of 3D echocardiographic sequences and delayed-enhancement magnetic resonance images from real cases. Infarct prediction is made at a spatial resolution around 4 mm, more than 10 times smaller than the current diagnosis, made regionally. Our method is accurate, and significantly outperforms the clinically-used thresholding of the deformation patterns (on real data: sensitivity/specificity of 0.828/0.804, area under the curve: 0.909 versus 0.742 for the most predictive strain component). Uncertainty adds value to refine the diagnosis and eventually re-examine suspicious cases.

Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology

KEY POINTS

Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome. We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge. The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools. We argue that incorporating variability and uncertainty should be a high priority for the future of the Cardiac Physiome. We suggest investigating the adoption of approaches developed in other areas of science and engineering while recognising unique challenges for the Cardiac Physiome; it is likely that novel methods will be necessary that require engagement with the mathematics and statistics community.

ABSTRACT

The Cardiac Physiome effort is one of the most mature and successful applications of mathematical and computational modelling for describing and advancing the understanding of physiology. After five decades of development, physiological cardiac models are poised to realise the promise of translational research via clinical applications such as drug development and patient-specific approaches as well as ablation, cardiac resynchronisation and contractility modulation therapies. For models to be included as a vital component of the decision process in safety-critical applications, rigorous assessment of model credibility will be required. This White Paper describes one aspect of this process by identifying and classifying sources of variability and uncertainty in models as well as their implications for the application and development of cardiac models. We stress the need to understand and quantify the sources of variability and uncertainty in model inputs, and the impact of model structure and complexity and their consequences for predictive model outputs. We propose that the future of the Cardiac Physiome should include a probabilistic approach to quantify the relationship of variability and uncertainty of model inputs and outputs.

Biophysical Modeling Predicts Ventricular Tachycardia Inducibility and Circuit Morphology: A Combined Clinical Validation and Computer Modeling Approach

INTRODUCTION

Computational modeling of cardiac arrhythmogenesis and arrhythmia maintenance has made a significant contribution to the understanding of the underlying mechanisms of arrhythmia. We hypothesized that a cardiac model using personalized electro-anatomical parameters could define the underlying ventricular tachycardia (VT) substrate and predict reentrant VT circuits. We used a combined modeling and clinical approach in order to validate the concept.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Non-contact electroanatomic mapping studies were performed in 7 patients (5 ischemics, 2 non-ischemics). Three ischemic cardiomyopathy patients underwent a clinical VT stimulation study. Anatomical information was obtained from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) including high-resolution scar imaging. A simplified biophysical mono-domain action potential model personalized with the patients' anatomical and electrical information was used to perform in silico VT stimulation studies for comparison. The personalized in silico VT stimulations were able to predict VT inducibility as well as the macroscopic characteristics of the VT circuits in patients who had clinical VT stimulation studies. The patients with positive clinical VT stimulation studies had wider distribution of action potential duration restitution curve (APD-RC) slopes and APDs than the patient with a negative VT stimulation study. The exit points of reentrant VT circuits encompassed a higher percentage of the maximum APD-RC slope compared to the scar and non-scar areas, 32%, 4%, and 0.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

VT stimulation studies can be simulated in silico using a personalized biophysical cardiac model. Myocardial spatial heterogeneity of APD restitution properties and conductivity may help predict the location of crucial entry/exit points of reentrant VT circuits.

A self-taught artificial agent for multi-physics computational model personalization

Personalization is the process of fitting a model to patient data, a critical step towards application of multi-physics computational models in clinical practice. Designing robust personalization algorithms is often a tedious, time-consuming, model- and data-specific process. We propose to use artificial intelligence concepts to learn this task, inspired by how human experts manually perform it. The problem is reformulated in terms of reinforcement learning. In an off-line phase, Vito, our self-taught artificial agent, learns a representative decision process model through exploration of the computational model: it learns how the model behaves under change of parameters. The agent then automatically learns an optimal strategy for on-line personalization. The algorithm is model-independent; applying it to a new model requires only adjusting few hyper-parameters of the agent and defining the observations to match. The full knowledge of the model itself is not required. Vito was tested in a synthetic scenario, showing that it could learn how to optimize cost functions generically. Then Vito was applied to the inverse problem of cardiac electrophysiology and the personalization of a whole-body circulation model. The obtained results suggested that Vito could achieve equivalent, if not better goodness of fit than standard methods, while being more robust (up to 11% higher success rates) and with faster (up to seven times) convergence rate. Our artificial intelligence approach could thus make personalization algorithms generalizable and self-adaptable to any patient and any model.

Multiphysics and multiscale modelling, data-model fusion and integration of organ physiology in the clinic: ventricular cardiac mechanics

With heart and cardiovascular diseases continually challenging healthcare systems worldwide, translating basic research on cardiac (patho)physiology into clinical care is essential. Exacerbating this already extensive challenge is the complexity of the heart, relying on its hierarchical structure and function to maintain cardiovascular flow. Computational modelling has been proposed and actively pursued as a tool for accelerating research and translation. Allowing exploration of the relationships between physics, multiscale mechanisms and function, computational modelling provides a platform for improving our understanding of the heart. Further integration of experimental and clinical data through data assimilation and parameter estimation techniques is bringing computational models closer to use in routine clinical practice. This article reviews developments in computational cardiac modelling and how their integration with medical imaging data is providing new pathways for translational cardiac modelling.

Towards Personalized Cardiology: Multi-Scale Modeling of the Failing Heart

BACKGROUND

Despite modern pharmacotherapy and advanced implantable cardiac devices, overall prognosis and quality of life of HF patients remain poor. This is in part due to insufficient patient stratification and lack of individualized therapy planning, resulting in less effective treatments and a significant number of non-responders.

METHODS AND RESULTS

State-of-the-art clinical phenotyping was acquired, including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and biomarker assessment. An individualized, multi-scale model of heart function covering cardiac anatomy, electrophysiology, biomechanics and hemodynamics was estimated using a robust framework. The model was computed on n=46 HF patients, showing for the first time that advanced multi-scale models can be fitted consistently on large cohorts. Novel multi-scale parameters derived from the model of all cases were analyzed and compared against clinical parameters, cardiac imaging, lab tests and survival scores to evaluate the explicative power of the model and its potential for better patient stratification. Model validation was pursued by comparing clinical parameters that were not used in the fitting process against model parameters.

CONCLUSION

This paper illustrates how advanced multi-scale models can complement cardiovascular imaging and how they could be applied in patient care. Based on obtained results, it becomes conceivable that, after thorough validation, such heart failure models could be applied for patient management and therapy planning in the future, as we illustrate in one patient of our cohort who received CRT-D implantation.

Three-dimensional cardiac computational modelling: methods, features and applications

The combination of computational models and biophysical simulations can help to interpret an array of experimental data and contribute to the understanding, diagnosis and treatment of complex diseases such as cardiac arrhythmias. For this reason, three-dimensional (3D) cardiac computational modelling is currently a rising field of research. The advance of medical imaging technology over the last decades has allowed the evolution from generic to patient-specific 3D cardiac models that faithfully represent the anatomy and different cardiac features of a given alive subject. Here we analyse sixty representative 3D cardiac computational models developed and published during the last fifty years, describing their information sources, features, development methods and online availability. This paper also reviews the necessary components to build a 3D computational model of the heart aimed at biophysical simulation, paying especial attention to cardiac electrophysiology (EP), and the existing approaches to incorporate those components. We assess the challenges associated to the different steps of the building process, from the processing of raw clinical or biological data to the final application, including image segmentation, inclusion of substructures and meshing among others. We briefly outline the personalisation approaches that are currently available in 3D cardiac computational modelling. Finally, we present examples of several specific applications, mainly related to cardiac EP simulation and model-based image analysis, showing the potential usefulness of 3D cardiac computational modelling into clinical environments as a tool to aid in the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of cardiac diseases.

Modeling of human artery tissue with probabilistic approach

Accurate modeling of biological soft tissue properties is vital for realistic medical simulation. Mechanical response of biological soft tissue always exhibits a strong variability due to the complex microstructure and different loading conditions. The inhomogeneity in human artery tissue is modeled with a computational probabilistic approach by assuming that the instantaneous stress at a specific strain varies according to normal distribution. Material parameters of the artery tissue which are modeled with a combined logarithmic and polynomial energy equation are represented by a statistical function with normal distribution. Mean and standard deviation of the material parameters are determined using genetic algorithm (GA) and inverse mean-value first-order second-moment (IMVFOSM) method, respectively. This nondeterministic approach was verified using computer simulation based on the Monte-Carlo (MC) method. Cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the MC simulation corresponds well with that of the experimental stress-strain data and the probabilistic approach is further validated using data from other studies. By taking into account the inhomogeneous mechanical properties of human biological tissue, the proposed method is suitable for realistic virtual simulation as well as an accurate computational approach for medical device validation.

Robust image-based estimation of cardiac tissue parameters and their uncertainty from noisy data

Clinical applications of computational cardiac models require precise personalization, i.e. fitting model parameters to capture patient's physiology. However, due to parameter non-identifiability, limited data, uncertainty in the clinical measurements, and modeling assumptions, various combinations of parameter values may exist that yield the same quality of fit. Hence, there is a need for quantifying the uncertainty in estimated parameters and to ascertain the uniqueness of the found solution. This paper presents a stochastic method to estimate the parameters of an image-based electromechanical model of the heart and their uncertainty due to noise in measurements. First, Bayesian inference is applied to fully estimate the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the model. To that end, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is used, which is made computationally tractable by employing a fast surrogate model based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, instead of the true forward model. Then, we use the mean-shift algorithm to automatically find the modes of the PDF and select the most likely one while being robust to noise. The approach is used to estimate global active stress and passive stiffness from invasive pressure and image-based volume quantification. Experiments on eight patients showed that not only our approach yielded goodness of fits equivalent to a well-established deterministic method, but we could also demonstrate the non-uniqueness of the problem and report uncertainty estimates, crucial information for subsequent clinical assessments of the personalized models.

Effect of statistically derived fiber models on the estimation of cardiac electrical activation

Myocardial fiber orientation plays a critical role in the electrical activation and subsequent contraction of the heart. To increase the clinical potential of electrophysiological (EP) simulation for the study of cardiac phenomena and the planning of interventions, accurate personalization of the fibers is a necessary yet challenging task. Due to the difficulties associated with the in vivo imaging of cardiac fiber structure, researchers have developed alternative techniques to personalize fibers. Thus far, cardiac simulation was performed mainly based on rule-based fiber models. More recently, there has been a significant interest in data-driven and statistically derived fiber models. In particular, our predictive method in [1] allows us to estimate the unknown subject-specific fiber orientation based on the more easily available shape information. The aim of this work is to estimate the effect of using such statistical predictive models for the estimation of cardiac electrical activation times and patterns. To this end, we perform EP simulations based on a database of ten canine ex vivo diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) datasets that include normal and failing cases. To assess the strength of the fiber models under varying conditions, we consider both sinus rhythm and biventricular pacing simulations. The results show that 1) the statistically derived fibers improve the estimation of the local activation times by an average of 53.7% over traditional rule-based models, and that 2) the obtained electrical activations are consistently similar to those of the DTI-based fibers.

Data-driven estimation of cardiac electrical diffusivity from 12-lead ECG signals

Diagnosis and treatment of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is challenging due to a large variety of causes and disease stages. Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology (EP) can be used to improve the assessment and prognosis of DCM, plan therapies and predict their outcome, but require personalization. In this work, we present a data-driven approach to estimate the electrical diffusivity parameter of an EP model from standard 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECG). An efficient forward model based on a mono-domain, phenomenological Lattice-Boltzmann model of cardiac EP, and a boundary element-based mapping of potentials to the body surface is employed. The electrical diffusivity of myocardium, left ventricle and right ventricle endocardium is then estimated using polynomial regression which takes as input the QRS duration and electrical axis. After validating the forward model, we computed 9500 EP simulations on 19 different DCM patients in just under three seconds each to learn the regression model. Using this database, we quantify the intrinsic uncertainty of electrical diffusion for given ECG features and show in a leave-one-patient-out cross-validation that the regression method is able to predict myocardium diffusion within the uncertainty range. Finally, our approach is tested on the 19 cases using their clinical ECG. 84% of them could be personalized using our method, yielding mean prediction errors of 18.7ms for the QRS duration and 6.5° for the electrical axis, both values being within clinical acceptability. By providing an estimate of diffusion parameters from readily available clinical data, our data-driven approach could therefore constitute a first calibration step toward a more complete personalization of cardiac EP.

Identifying model inaccuracies and solution uncertainties in noninvasive activation-based imaging of cardiac excitation using convex relaxation

Noninvasive imaging of cardiac electrical function has begun to move towards clinical adoption. Here, we consider one common formulation of the problem, in which the goal is to estimate the spatial distribution of electrical activation times during a cardiac cycle. We address the challenge of understanding the robustness and uncertainty of solutions to this formulation. This formulation poses a nonconvex, nonlinear least squares optimization problem. We show that it can be relaxed to be convex, at the cost of some degree of physiological realism of the solution set, and that this relaxation can be used as a framework to study model inaccuracy and solution uncertainty. We present two examples, one using data from a healthy human subject and the other synthesized with the ECGSIM software package. In the first case, we consider uncertainty in the initial guess and regularization parameter. In the second case, we mimic the presence of an ischemic zone in the heart in a way which violates a model assumption. We show that the convex relaxation allows understanding of spatial distribution of parameter sensitivity in the first case, and identification of model violation in the second.

Optimal experiment design for model selection in biochemical networks

Background

Mathematical modeling is often used to formalize hypotheses on how a biochemical network operates by discriminating between competing models. Bayesian model selection offers a way to determine the amount of evidence that data provides to support one model over the other while favoring simple models. In practice, the amount of experimental data is often insufficient to make a clear distinction between competing models. Often one would like to perform a new experiment which would discriminate between competing hypotheses.

Results

We developed a novel method to perform Optimal Experiment Design to predict which experiments would most effectively allow model selection. A Bayesian approach is applied to infer model parameter distributions. These distributions are sampled and used to simulate from multivariate predictive densities. The method is based on a k-Nearest Neighbor estimate of the Jensen Shannon divergence between the multivariate predictive densities of competing models.

Conclusions

We show that the method successfully uses predictive differences to enable model selection by applying it to several test cases. Because the design criterion is based on predictive distributions, which can be computed for a wide range of model quantities, the approach is very flexible. The method reveals specific combinations of experiments which improve discriminability even in cases where data is scarce. The proposed approach can be used in conjunction with existing Bayesian methodologies where (approximate) posteriors have been determined, making use of relations that exist within the inferred posteriors.

Geodesic Monte Carlo on Embedded Manifolds

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods explicitly defined on the manifold of probability distributions have recently been established. These methods are constructed from diffusions across the manifold and the solution of the equations describing geodesic flows in the Hamilton-Jacobi representation. This paper takes the differential geometric basis of Markov chain Monte Carlo further by considering methods to simulate from probability distributions that themselves are defined on a manifold, with common examples being classes of distributions describing directional statistics. Proposal mechanisms are developed based on the geodesic flows over the manifolds of support for the distributions, and illustrative examples are provided for the hypersphere and Stiefel manifold of orthonormal matrices.

Computational methods to reduce uncertainty in the estimation of cardiac conduction properties from electroanatomical recordings

Cardiac imaging is routinely used to evaluate cardiac tissue properties prior to therapy. By integrating the structural information with electrophysiological data from e.g. electroanatomical mapping systems, knowledge of the properties of the cardiac tissue can be further refined. However, as in other clinical modalities, electrophysiological data are often sparse and noisy, and this results in high levels of uncertainty in the estimated quantities. In this study, we develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference, coupled with a computationally efficient model of electrical propagation to achieve two main aims: (1) to quantify values and associated uncertainty for different tissue conduction properties inferred from electroanatomical data, and (2) to design strategies to optimize the location and number of measurements required to maximize information and reduce uncertainty. The methodology is validated in an in silico study performed using simulated data obtained from a human image-based ventricular model, including realistic fibre orientation and a transmural scar. We demonstrate that the method provides a simultaneous description of clinically-relevant electrophysiological conduction properties and their associated uncertainty for various levels of noise. By using the developed methodology to investigate how the uncertainty decreases in response to added measurements, we then derive an a priori index for placing electrophysiological measurements in order to optimize the information content of the collected data. Results show that the derived index has a clear benefit in minimizing the uncertainty of inferred conduction properties compared to a random distribution of measurements, reducing the number of required measurements by over 50% in several of the investigated settings. This suggests that the methodology presented in this work provides an important step towards improving the quality of the spatiotemporal information obtained using electroanatomical mapping.

Transmural imaging of ventricular action potentials and post-infarction scars in swine hearts

The problem of using surface data to reconstruct transmural electrophysiological (EP) signals is intrinsically ill-posed without a unique solution in its unconstrained form. Incorporating physiological spatiotemporal priors through probabilistic integration of dynamic EP models, we have previously developed a Bayesian approach to transmural electrophysiological imaging (TEPI) using body-surface electrocardiograms. In this study, we generalize TEPI to using electrical signals collected from heart surfaces, and we test its feasibility on two pre-clinical swine models provided through the STACOM 2011 EP simulation Challenge. Since this new application of TEPI does not require whole-body imaging, there may be more immediate potential in EP laboratories where it could utilize catheter mapping data and produce transmural information for therapy guidance. Another focus of this study is to investigate the consistency among three modalities in delineating scar after myocardial infarction: TEPI, electroanatomical voltage mapping (EAVM), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Our preliminary data demonstrate that, compared to the low-voltage scar area in EAVM, the 3-D electrical scar volume detected by TEPI is more consistent with anatomical scar volume delineated in MRI. Furthermore, TEPI could complement anatomical imaging by providing EP functional features related to both scar and healthy tissue.

Parameter uncertainty in biochemical models described by ordinary differential equations

Improved mechanistic understanding of biochemical networks is one of the driving ambitions of Systems Biology. Computational modeling allows the integration of various sources of experimental data in order to put this conceptual understanding to the test in a quantitative manner. The aim of computational modeling is to obtain both predictive as well as explanatory models for complex phenomena, hereby providing useful approximations of reality with varying levels of detail. As the complexity required to describe different system increases, so does the need for determining how well such predictions can be made. Despite efforts to make tools for uncertainty analysis available to the field, these methods have not yet found widespread use in the field of Systems Biology. Additionally, the suitability of the different methods strongly depends on the problem and system under investigation. This review provides an introduction to some of the techniques available as well as gives an overview of the state-of-the-art methods for parameter uncertainty analysis.

Fundamental principles of data assimilation underlying the Verdandi library: applications to biophysical model personalization within euHeart

We present the fundamental principles of data assimilation underlying the Verdandi library, and how they are articulated with the modular architecture of the library. This translates--in particular--into the definition of standardized interfaces through which the data assimilation library interoperates with the model simulation software and the so-called observation manager. We also survey various examples of data assimilation applied to the personalization of biophysical models, in particular, for cardiac modeling applications within the euHeart European project. This illustrates the power of data assimilation concepts in such novel applications, with tremendous potential in clinical diagnosis assistance.

Computational modeling of the human atrial anatomy and electrophysiology

This review article gives a comprehensive survey of the progress made in computational modeling of the human atria during the last 10 years. Modeling the anatomy has emerged from simple "peanut"-like structures to very detailed models including atrial wall and fiber direction. Electrophysiological models started with just two cellular models in 1998. Today, five models exist considering e.g. details of intracellular compartments and atrial heterogeneity. On the pathological side, modeling atrial remodeling and fibrotic tissue are the other important aspects. The bridge to data that are measured in the catheter laboratory and on the body surface (ECG) is under construction. Every measurement can be used either for model personalization or for validation. Potential clinical applications are briefly outlined and future research perspectives are suggested.

Statistical analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems using differential geometric sampling methods

Mechanistic models based on systems of nonlinear differential equations can help provide a quantitative understanding of complex physical or biological phenomena. The use of such models to describe nonlinear interactions in molecular biology has a long history; however, it is only recently that advances in computing have allowed these models to be set within a statistical framework, further increasing their usefulness and binding modelling and experimental approaches more tightly together. A probabilistic approach to modelling allows us to quantify uncertainty in both the model parameters and the model predictions, as well as in the model hypotheses themselves. In this paper, the Bayesian approach to statistical inference is adopted and we examine the significant challenges that arise when performing inference over nonlinear ordinary differential equation models describing cell signalling pathways and enzymatic circadian control; in particular, we address the difficulties arising owing to strong nonlinear correlation structures, high dimensionality and non-identifiability of parameters. We demonstrate how recently introduced differential geometric Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology alleviates many of these issues by making proposals based on local sensitivity information, which ultimately allows us to perform effective statistical analysis. Along the way, we highlight the deep link between the sensitivity analysis of such dynamic system models and the underlying Riemannian geometry of the induced posterior probability distributions.

3D virtual human atria: A computational platform for studying clinical atrial fibrillation

Despite a vast amount of experimental and clinical data on the underlying ionic, cellular and tissue substrates, the mechanisms of common atrial arrhythmias (such as atrial fibrillation, AF) arising from the functional interactions at the whole atria level remain unclear. Computational modelling provides a quantitative framework for integrating such multi-scale data and understanding the arrhythmogenic behaviour that emerges from the collective spatio-temporal dynamics in all parts of the heart. In this study, we have developed a multi-scale hierarchy of biophysically detailed computational models for the human atria--the 3D virtual human atria. Primarily, diffusion tensor MRI reconstruction of the tissue geometry and fibre orientation in the human sinoatrial node (SAN) and surrounding atrial muscle was integrated into the 3D model of the whole atria dissected from the Visible Human dataset. The anatomical models were combined with the heterogeneous atrial action potential (AP) models, and used to simulate the AP conduction in the human atria under various conditions: SAN pacemaking and atrial activation in the normal rhythm, break-down of regular AP wave-fronts during rapid atrial pacing, and the genesis of multiple re-entrant wavelets characteristic of AF. Contributions of different properties of the tissue to mechanisms of the normal rhythm and arrhythmogenesis were investigated. Primarily, the simulations showed that tissue heterogeneity caused the break-down of the normal AP wave-fronts at rapid pacing rates, which initiated a pair of re-entrant spiral waves; and tissue anisotropy resulted in a further break-down of the spiral waves into multiple meandering wavelets characteristic of AF. The 3D virtual atria model itself was incorporated into the torso model to simulate the body surface ECG patterns in the normal and arrhythmic conditions. Therefore, a state-of-the-art computational platform has been developed, which can be used for studying multi-scale electrical phenomena during atrial conduction and AF arrhythmogenesis. Results of such simulations can be directly compared with electrophysiological and endocardial mapping data, as well as clinical ECG recordings. The virtual human atria can provide in-depth insights into 3D excitation propagation processes within atrial walls of a whole heart in vivo, which is beyond the current technical capabilities of experimental or clinical set-ups.