Rapid increase in the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes in Chinese in Harbin between 1999 and 2005

Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes May Be Underestimated in the Chinese Population: Evidence From 21.7 Million People Between 2007 and 2017

OBJECTIVE

Previous reports of the annual incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in China were conducted using retrospective hospital cases, which may not reflect the reality. This longitudinal study estimated T1D incidence in a Chinese population of 21.7 million from 2007 to 2017.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A population-based registry of T1D was performed by the Beijing Municipal Health Commission Information Center. Annual incidence and 95% CIs were calculated by age group and sex. The association of sex with T1D incidence and predicted new cases of T1D were assessed using Poisson regression models. Annual percentage change and average annual percentage of change were assessed using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 6,875 individuals who developed T1D from 2007 to 2017 in this population. T1D incidence (/100,000 persons) (95% CI) significantly increased from 2.72 (2.51, 2.93) in 2007 to 3.60 (3.38, 3.78) in 2017 (P < 0.001). The T1D onset peak was in the 10-14-year-old age group. While no significant trend was found in the 0-14- and 15-29-year-old age groups, T1D incidence markedly increased from 1.87 to 3.52 in the ≥30-year-old age group (P < 0.05). The prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis was highest in the 0-4-year-old age group. We predicted new cases of T1D will increase 1.57-fold over the next decade.

CONCLUSIONS

T1D incidence in this large Chinese population is higher than has been reported previously. From 2007 to 2017, although the incidence peak was in the 10-14-year age group, the T1D incidence increased sharply in adults but not in youth.

Trends and geographic variations in self-reported diabetes incidence: A prospective open cohort study of Chinese men and women, 1997-2015

AIM

This study aims to evaluate the trends and geographic variations of incident diabetes as well as the corresponding sex differences in China.

METHODS

The open cohort study derived data of 16,610 individuals from the China Health and Nutrition Survey 1997-2015. Direct standardisation was employed to calculate the age-standardised diabetes incidence. Mixed effects logistic regression models with interaction terms were performed to examine variations in incident diabetes. Socio-demographic (age, sex, marital status, racial compositions and educational attainment) and lifestyle attributes (smoking history, BMI and waist circumference) were sequentially included as covariates.

RESULTS

Overall age-standardised diabetes incidence increased from 2.94 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 2.44-3.44) in 1997-2004 to 5.54 (95% CI, 4.94-6.14) in 2009-2015. Models with interaction terms suggest that the increase among men was higher than that among women (wave 2006-2009 × Female: OR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.28-0.72). Age-standardised incidence of diabetes varied across regions, ranging from 5.67 (95% CI, 4.95-6.40) in Eastern China to 2.69 (95% CI 2.19-3.19) in Western China. Subsequent modelling analyses suggest that the geographic variations could be mostly explained by the variations in the BMI and waist circumference across regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that the incidence of self-reported diabetes approximately doubled during the study period. The increase among men was steeper than that among women. Public interventions reducing the population's obesity level hold promise to alleviate geographic variations and flatten the growth curve.

Incidence and Time Trends of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus among Adults in Zhejiang Province, China, 2007-2017

AIMS

Population-based incidence data are paramount to assess the effects of prevention strategies for diabetes, yet the relevant studies in mainland China are scarce. This study is aimed at estimating the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence and time trends in Chinese adults. Material and Methods. Based on the Diabetes Surveillance System of Zhejiang Province, 879,769 newly diagnosed T2DM cases were identified from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017. Annual incidence, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and average annual percentage change with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported.

RESULTS

The age-standardized overall incidence rate of T2DM was reported to be 281.73 (95% CI: 281.26-282.20) per 100,000 person-years, 293.19 (95% CI: 292.51-293.87) in males and 270.42 (95% CI: 269.76-271.09) in females. Compared with the ≥80 years age group, younger adults were at lower risk for T2DM (IRRs ranged from 0.035 to 0.986 and the 95% CIs did not include the null), except for the 70-79 years age group (IRR: 1.087, 95% CI: 1.077-1.097). Compared with females and rural areas, the risk for T2DM was higher in males (IRR: 1.083, 95% CI: 1.079-1.088) and urban areas (IRR: 1.005, 95% CI: 1.001-1.009), respectively. The standardized annual incidence rate increased from 164.85 in 2007 to 268.65 per 100,000 person-years in 2017, with an average annual increase of 4.01% and grew more rapidly in male, younger, and rural area populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggested a significant increase in the incidence rate of T2DM among Chinese over the past decade, especially in adults characterized by male sex, younger age, and rural areas.

Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes: systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes.

DESIGN

Systematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year.

RESULTS

Among the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

Prospero CRD42018092287.

High -density lipoprotein cholesterol as a predictor for diabetes mellitus

Background:

Diabetes is a prevalent chronic disease around the world. To evaluate the risk of diabetes comprehensively, we developed a score model for risk prediction with HDL-C as a protective factor.

Methods:

We extracted physical examination data of 2728 individuals. The data contain 18 demographic and clinical variables. To identify the statistical significant feature variables, the backward stepwise logistic regression was used based on the data of the “exploratory population”. To ascertain the cutoff value of the selected variables, we used the Youden index. Then we assigned each variable level a score according to the estimated regression model coefficients and then calculated the individual’s total score. We gained the cutoff value for the total score through the Youden Index and stratified the total score into four levels. We employed the data of “validation population” to test the performance of the score model based on the area under the ROC curve.

Results:

Age, LDL-C, HDL-C, BMI, family history of diabetes, diastolic blood pressure and TCHO were selected as statistically significant variables. The diabetes risk score range varied from 0 to 17. The risk level categorized by the total score was low, middle, high and extremely high, with a score range of 0-2, 3-7, 8-12 and 13-17, respectively.

Conclusions:

The score model based on physical examination data is an efficient and valuable tool to evaluate and monitor the potential diabetes risk for both healthy and unhealthy people at an individual level.

Regional differences in the incidence of self-reported type 2 diabetes in Germany: results from five population-based studies in Germany (DIAB-CORE Consortium)

BACKGROUND

Population-based data are paramount to investigate the long-term course of diabetes, for planning in healthcare and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of primary prevention. We analysed regional differences in the incidence of self-reported type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany.

METHODS

Data of participants (baseline age 45-74 years) from five regional population-based studies conducted between 1997 and 2010 were included (mean follow-up 2.2-7.1 years). The incidence of self-reported type 2 diabetes mellitus at follow-up was compared. The incidence rates per 1000 person-years (95% CI) and the cumulative incidence (95% CI) from regional studies were directly standardised to the German population (31 December 2007) and weighted by inverse probability weights for losses to follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 8787 participants, 521 (5.9%) developed type 2 diabetes mellitus corresponding to an incidence rate of 11.8/1000 person-years (95% CI 10.8 to 12.9). The regional incidence was highest in the East and lowest in the South of Germany with 16.9 (95% CI 13.3 to 21.8) vs 9.3 (95% CI 7.4 to 11.1)/1000 person-years, respectively. The incidence increased with age and was higher in men than in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of self-reported type 2 diabetes mellitus shows regional differences within Germany. Prevention measures need to consider sex-specific differences and probably can be more efficiently introduced toward those regions in need.

Predictors of diabetes in older people in urban China

BACKGROUND

China has the largest number of people with diabetes in the world. Over the last 30 years China has experienced rapid economic growth and a growing income gap between rich and poor. The population is ageing, however diabetes in older people has not been well studied to date. In this study we determined incidence and predictors of diabetes in older Chinese people.

METHODS

During 2001, using a standard interview method, we examined 1,317 adults aged ≥65 years who did not have diabetes in the city of Hefei, and characterized baseline risk factors. Over 7.5 years of follow up, we documented incident diabetes using self-reported doctor diagnosis and the cause of death in the whole cohort, and HbA(1C) ≥48 mmol/mol in a nested case-control sample. A multivariate Cox regression model was employed to investigate risk of diabetes in relation to baseline risk factors.

RESULTS

During follow up, 119 persons had newly diagnosed diabetes. World age-standardised incidence of diabetes was 24.5 (95% CI 19.5-29.5) per 1,000 person-years. Risk of diabetes was significantly and positively associated with income, waist circumference and body mass index, smoking and uncontrolled hypertension, but negatively associated with having a hobby of walking and frequency of visiting children/other relatives and contacting neighbours/friends. Higher income was significantly associated with increased diabetes risk regardless of cardiovascular and psychosocial risk factors. Compared to those with middle income and no psychosocial risk factors, the hazard ratio for incident diabetes among participants with high income and psychosocial risk was 2.13 (95% CI 1.02-4.45).

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing incidence of diabetes in relation to high income has become an important public health issue in China. Maintaining social networks and gentle physical activities and reducing psychosocial factors may be integrated into current multi-faceted preventive strategies for curbing the epidemic of diabetes in the older population.

Are the associations of plasma leptin and adiponectin with type 2 diabetes independent of obesity in older Chinese adults?

BACKGROUND

China has experienced a rapid increase in diabetes. In this study, we assessed whether the associations of two adipocyte-derived hormones, leptin and adiponectin, with type 2 diabetes are independent of obesity in older Chinese adults.

METHODS

In this matched case-control study, each of the 619 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) cases aged 60-96 years was matched to a control by age, sex, waist circumference and body mass index (BMI).

RESULTS

Before matching, IFG and diabetes cases had significantly lower adiponectin and higher leptin concentrations than the participants with normal glucose. After matching for age, sex, waist circumference and BMI, the differences between cases and controls remained significant (p < 0.001) in adiponectin but not in leptin (p = 0.77). Adjusted odds ratios for the combined outcome of diabetes and IFG were 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.88, 1.21; p = 0.71) for one standard deviation increase in plasma leptin and 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.69, 0.91; p < 0.001) for one standard deviation increase in plasma adiponectin.

CONCLUSION

Without adjustment for obesity related body size measurements of waist circumference and BMI, both adiponectin and leptin are associated with diabetes and IFG. After adjustment, adiponectin is independently associated with diabetes and IFG, but there is no independent association between leptin and either diabetes or IFG. Our findings suggest that adiponectin provides extra-predictive power beyond obesity while leptin does not independently predict the risk of diabetes and IFG in older Chinese adults.

Geographic variation in the prevalence of overweight and economic status in Chinese adults

China is experiencing a rapid increase in overweight and related conditions. This study describes the geographic variation in BMI levels and the prevalence of overweight and underweight in Chinese adults, and assesses their relations with regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita levels. BMI values and the prevalence of overweight and underweight in 143 522 adults from the Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey (2002) were calculated according to geographic regions in China. Their correlations with GDP were assessed. Linear and logistic regressions were used to adjust for age, sex and city–country composition. BMI and the prevalence of overweight were highest in the Bohai coastal regions while lowest in southern provinces such as Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hunan and Fujian. Mean BMI values ranged from 20·72 to 25·48 kg/m2, and the prevalence of overweight ranged from 6·6 to 53·9 %. BMI and the prevalence of overweight were positively correlated with economic development, particularly in the northern regions. However, for regions with similar GDP per capita levels, those in the south had substantially lower BMI and lower prevalence of overweight than those in the north. Interestingly, some southern regions with high GDP per capita had low BMI and low prevalence of overweight. The prevalence of underweight was highest in the south. Substantial geographic variations in the prevalence of overweight and underweight exist in China. Such variations cannot be fully explained by the differences in economic status. China is currently facing challenges of both overweight and underweight but priorities vary in different regions.

Increasing incidence of type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years in Harbin, China (1990-2000)

AIMS

(1) To determine the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in children aged<15 years in Harbin, China and (2) to examine the trend in incidence over the period from 1990 to 2000.

METHODS

Newly diagnosed cases of type 1 diabetes from 1990 to 2000 were identified among 1,286,154 Chinese children aged 0-14 years in Harbin. The primary source of case ascertainment was from hospital records and the secondary source from the health records of school clinics.

RESULTS

One hundred and three cases were identified during 1990 and 2000. The annual incidence rate was 0.73 per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.59-0.88 per 100,000). No significant difference between males and females in the incidence of type 1 diabetes was observed. The incidence was significantly associated with age. With those aged<5 years as reference, the rate ratios were 2.06 and 4.1 for those aged 5-9 and 10-14 years, respectively. The incidence was higher in urban than in suburban regions, particularly among those aged 10-14 years. No significant seasonality was observed. There was a significant increasing trend in the incidence of type 1 diabetes during the period of 1990 and 2000, with an annual increase of 7.4% (95% CI: 1.6-13.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a significantly increasing trend in the incidence of type 1 diabetes among children in Harbin. Increased number of cases has important implications for diabetes care providers. Understanding the etiology of this rise is critical for developing preventive measures to halt the trend.