Simulation modeling to evaluate the persistence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) on commercial dairy farms in the United States

An Embedded Multiscale Modelling to Guide Control and Elimination of Paratuberculosis in Ruminants

In recent years, multiscale modelling approach has begun to receive an overwhelming appreciation as an appropriate technique to characterize the complexity of infectious disease systems. In this study, we develop an embedded multiscale model of paratuberculosis in ruminants at host level that integrates the within-host scale and the between-host. A key feature of embedded multiscale models developed at host level of organization of an infectious disease system is that the within-host scale and the between-host scale influence each other in a reciprocal (i.e., both) way through superinfection, that is, through repeated infection before the host recovers from the initial infectious episode. This key feature is demonstrated in this study through a multiscale model of paratuberculosis in ruminants. The results of this study, through numerical analysis of the multiscale model, show that superinfection influences the dynamics of paratuberculosis only at the start of the infection, while the MAP bacteria replication continuously influences paratuberculosis dynamics throughout the infection until the host recovers from the initial infectious episode. This is largely because the replication of MAP bacteria at the within-host scale sustains the dynamics of paratuberculosis at this scale domain. We further use the embedded multiscale model developed in this study to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of paratuberculosis health interventions that influence the disease dynamics at different scales from efficacy data.

Who infects whom?-Reconstructing infection chains of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis in an endemically infected dairy herd by use of genomic data

Recent evidence of circulation of multiple strains within herds and mixed infections of cows marks the beginning of a rethink of our knowledge on Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) epidemiology. Strain typing opens new ways to investigate MAP transmission. This work presents a method for reconstructing infection chains in a setting of endemic Johne’s disease on a well-managed dairy farm. By linking genomic data with demographic field data, strain-specific differences in spreading patterns could be quantified for a densely sampled dairy herd. Mixed infections of dairy cows with MAP are common, and some strains spread more successfully. Infected cows remain susceptible for co-infections with other MAP genotypes. The model suggested that cows acquired infection from 1–4 other cows and spread infection to 0–17 individuals. Reconstructed infection chains supported the hypothesis that high shedding animals that started to shed at an early age and showed a progressive infection pattern represented a greater risk for spreading MAP. Transmission of more than one genotype between animals was recorded. In this farm with a good MAP control management program, adult-to-adult contact was proposed as the most important transmission route to explain the reconstructed networks. For each isolate, at least one more likely ancestor could be inferred. Our study results help to capture underlying transmission processes and to understand the challenges of tracing MAP spread within a herd. Only the combination of precise longitudinal field data and bacterial strain type information made it possible to trace infection in such detail.

Identification of Sero-Diagnostic Antigens for the Early Diagnosis of Johne's Disease using MAP Protein Microarrays

Considerable effort has been directed toward controlling Johne’s disease (JD), a chronic granulomatous intestinal inflammatory disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in cattle and other ruminants. However, progress in controlling the spread of MAP infection has been impeded by the lack of reliable diagnostic tests that can identify animals early in the infection process and help break the transmission chain. To identify reliable antigens for early diagnosis of MAP infection, we constructed a MAP protein array with 868 purified recombinant MAP proteins, and screened a total of 180 well-characterized serum samples from cows assigned to 4 groups based on previous serological and fecal test results: negative low exposure (NL, n = 30); negative high exposure (NH, n = 30); fecal-positive, ELISA-negative (F + E−, n = 60); and both fecal- and ELISA-positive (F + E+, n = 60). The analyses identified a total of 49 candidate antigens in the NH, F + E−, and F + E+ with reactivity compared with the NL group (p < 0.01), a majority of which have not been previously identified. While some of the antigens were identified as reactive in only one of the groups, others showed reactivity in multiple groups, including NH (n = 28), F + E− (n = 26), and F + E+ (n = 17) groups. Using combinations of top reactive antigens in each group, the results reveal sensitivities of 60.0%, 73.3%, and 81.7% in the NH, F + E−, and F + E+, respectively at 90% specificity, suggesting that early detection of infection in animals may be possible and enable better opportunities to reduce within herd transmission that may be otherwise missed by traditional serological assays that are biased towards more heavily infected animals. Together, the results suggest that several of the novel candidate antigens identified in this study, particularly those that were reactive in the NH and F + E− groups, have potential utility for the early sero-diagnosis of MAP infection.

Reviewing age-structured epidemiological models of cattle diseases tailored to support management decisions: Guidance for the future

Mechanistic simulation models are being increasingly used as tools to assist with animal health decision-making in the cattle sector. We reviewed scientific literature for studies reporting age-structured cattle management models in application to infectious diseases. Our emphasis was on papers dedicated to support decision making in the field. In this systematic review we considered 1290 manuscripts and identified 76 eligible studies. These are based on 52 individual models from 10 countries addressing 9 different pathogens. We provide an overview of these models and present in detail their theoretical foundations, design paradigms and incorporated processes. We propose a structure of the characteristics of cattle disease models using three main features: [1] biological processes, [2] farming-related processes and [3] pathogen-related processes. It would be of benefit if future cattle disease models were to follow this structure to facilitate science communication and to allow increased model transparency.

Quantifying transmission of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis among group-housed dairy calves

Johne’s disease (JD) is a chronic enteritis caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), with control primarily aimed at preventing new infections among calves. The aim of the current study was to quantify calf-to-calf transmission of MAP among penmates in an experimental trial. Newborn Holstein bull calves (n = 32) were allocated into pens of 4, with 2 inoculated (IN) calves and 2 calves that were contact exposed (CE). Calves were group-housed for 3 months, with frequent collection of fecal and blood samples and tissue collection after euthanasia. The basic reproduction ratio (R₀) was estimated using a final size (FS) model with a susceptible-infected model, based on INF-γ ELISA and tissue culture followed by qPCR. In addition, the transmission rate parameter (β) for new shedding events was estimated using a general linearized method (GLM) model with a susceptible-infected-susceptible model based on culture, followed by qPCR, of fecal samples collected during group housing. The R₀ was derived for IN and CE calves separately, due to a difference in susceptibility, as well as differences in duration of shedding events. Based on the FS model, interferon-γ results from blood samples resulted in a R₀^IG of 0.90 (0.24, 2.59) and tissue culture resulted in a R₀^T of 1.36 (0.45, 3.94). Based on the GLM model, the R₀ for CE calves to begin shedding (R₀^CE) was 3.24 (1.14, 7.41). We concluded that transmission of MAP infection between penmates occurred and that transmission among calves may be an important cause of persistent MAP infection on dairy farms that is currently uncontrolled for in current JD control programs.

Longitudinal study of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis fecal shedding patterns and concurrent serological patterns in naturally infected dairy cattle

Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) is the etiological agent of paratuberculosis, a disease that affects ruminants worldwide. Despite global interest in the control of this disease, gaps exist in our knowledge of fecal shedding patterns and concurrent serological patterns. This longitudinal study in dairy cattle herds with high MAP seroprevalence in France aimed at accurately describing fecal shedding patterns over 1 year; relating those shedding patterns to individual animal characteristics (age, breed, parity); and exploring the association between fecal shedding patterns and serological patterns. To describe temporal fecal shedding patterns and continuity of shedding, along with the standard quantitative PCR (qPCR) threshold cycle we used a cutoff value that related to low or nonculturable fecal shedding. We also defined a threshold cycle indicative of shedding in high quantities to describe infection progression patterns. Twenty-one herds completed the study, and 782 cows were tested 4 times each. We obtained 4 sets of paired fecal qPCR and serum ELISA results from 757 cows. Although we targeted highly likely infectious animals, we found a large diversity of shedding patterns, as well as high variability between herds in the proportion of animals showing a given pattern. The fecal qPCR results of almost 20% of the final study sample were positioned at least once in the range that indicated low or nonculturable fecal shedding (between the adjusted and the standard cutoff value). Although these animals would typically be classified as non-shedders, they could be important to infection dynamics on the farm. Animals that shed at least twice consecutively and animals that shed in high quantities rarely reverted to negativity. Repeated fecal qPCR can be used to detect temporal fecal shedding traits, and the decision to cull an animal could practically be based on temporal, semiquantitative results. Overall, we found a mismatch between fecal shedding and ELISA seropositivity (637 animals were ELISA-negative 4 times, but only 13% of those animals were qPCR-negative 4 times). We found that having more than 2 ELISA-positive samples was strongly related to persistent and continuous shedding. We suggest that although serological testing is much less sensitive than qPCR, it can also be used, particularly over the course of multiple testing events, to identify animals that are most likely to contribute to the contamination of the farm environment.

Control of paratuberculosis: who, why and how. A review of 48 countries

Paratuberculosis, a chronic disease affecting ruminant livestock, is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). It has direct and indirect economic costs, impacts animal welfare and arouses public health concerns. In a survey of 48 countries we found paratuberculosis to be very common in livestock. In about half the countries more than 20% of herds and flocks were infected with MAP. Most countries had large ruminant populations (millions), several types of farmed ruminants, multiple husbandry systems and tens of thousands of individual farms, creating challenges for disease control. In addition, numerous species of free-living wildlife were infected. Paratuberculosis was notifiable in most countries, but formal control programs were present in only 22 countries. Generally, these were the more highly developed countries with advanced veterinary services. Of the countries without a formal control program for paratuberculosis, 76% were in South and Central America, Asia and Africa while 20% were in Europe. Control programs were justified most commonly on animal health grounds, but protecting market access and public health were other factors. Prevalence reduction was the major objective in most countries, but Norway and Sweden aimed to eradicate the disease, so surveillance and response were their major objectives. Government funding was involved in about two thirds of countries, but operations tended to be funded by farmers and their organizations and not by government alone. The majority of countries (60%) had voluntary control programs. Generally, programs were supported by incentives for joining, financial compensation and/or penalties for non-participation. Performance indicators, structure, leadership, practices and tools used in control programs are also presented. Securing funding for long-term control activities was a widespread problem. Control programs were reported to be successful in 16 (73%) of the 22 countries. Recommendations are made for future control programs, including a primary goal of establishing an international code for paratuberculosis, leading to universal acknowledgment of the principles and methods of control in relation to endemic and transboundary disease. An holistic approach across all ruminant livestock industries and long-term commitment is required for control of paratuberculosis.

Elucidating Transmission Patterns of Endemic Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis Using Molecular Epidemiology

Mycobacterial diseases are persistent and characterized by lengthy latent periods. Thus, epidemiological models require careful delineation of transmission routes. Understanding transmission routes will improve the quality and success of control programs. We aimed to study the infection dynamics of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the causal agent of ruminant Johne’s disease, and to distinguish within-host mutation from individual transmission events in a longitudinally MAP-defined dairy herd in upstate New York. To this end, semi-annual fecal samples were obtained from a single dairy herd over the course of seven years, in addition to tissue samples from a selection of culled animals. All samples were cultured for MAP, and multi-locus short-sequence repeat (MLSSR) typing was used to determine MAP SSR types. We concluded from these precise MAP infection data that, when the tissue burden remains low, the majority of MAP infections are not detectable by routine fecal culture but will be identified when tissue culture is performed after slaughter. Additionally, we determined that in this herd vertical infection played only a minor role in MAP transmission. By means of extensive and precise longitudinal data from a single dairy herd, we have come to new insights regarding MAP co-infections and within-host evolution.

Assessment of the bovine tuberculosis elimination protocol in the United States

In this study, we analyzed the performance of the USDA's bovine tuberculosis (bTB) elimination protocol in a 1,000-cow closed dairy herd using an agent-based simulation model under different levels of initial bTB infection. We followed the bTB test sensitivity and specificity values used by the USDA in its model assessment. We estimated the net present value over a 20-yr horizon for a bTB-free milking herd and for bTB-infected herds following the USDA protocol. We estimated the expected time to identify the infection in the herd once it is introduced, its elimination time, the reproductive number (R₀), and effective reproduction number (R_e) under the USDA protocol. The optimal number of consecutive negative whole-herd tests (WHT) needed to declare a herd bTB-free with a 95% confidence under different bTB prevalence levels was derived. Our results support the minimum number of consecutive negative WHT required by the USDA protocol to declare a herd bTB-free; however, the number of consecutive negative WHT needed to eliminate bTB in a herd depends on the sensitivity and specificity of the tests. The robustness of the protocol was analyzed under conservative bTB test parameters from the literature. The cost of implementing the USDA protocol when 1 infected heifer is introduced in a 1,000-cow dairy herd is about $1,523,161. The average time until detection and the time required to eliminate bTB-infected animals from the herd, after 1 occult animal is introduced in the herd, were 735 and 119 d, respectively.

A data-driven individual-based model of infectious disease in livestock operation: A validation study for paratuberculosis

Chronic livestock diseases cause large financial loss and affect animal health and welfare. Controlling these diseases mostly requires precise information on both individual animal and population dynamics to inform the farmer’s decisions, but even successful control programmes do by no means assure elimination. Mathematical models provide opportunities to test different control and elimination options rather than implementing them in real herds, but these models require robust parameter estimation and validation. Fitting these models to data is a difficult task due to heterogeneities in livestock processes. In this paper, we develop an infectious disease modeling framework for a livestock disease (paratuberculosis) that is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Infection with MAP leads to reduced milk production, pregnancy rates, and slaughter value and increased culling rates in cattle and causes significant economic losses to the dairy industry. These economic effects are particularly important motivations in the control and elimination of MAP. In this framework, an individual-based model (IBM) of a dairy herd was built and MAP infection dynamics was integrated. Once the model produced realistic dynamics of MAP infection, we implemented an evaluation method by fitting it to data from three dairy herds from the Northeast region of the US. The model fitting exercises used least-squares and parameter space searching methods to obtain the best-fitted values of selected parameters. The best set of parameters were used to model the effect of interventions. The results show that the presented model can complement real herd statistics where the intervention strategies suggest a reduction in MAP prevalence without elimination. Overall, this research not only provides a complete model for MAP infection dynamics in a dairy herd but also offers a method for estimating parameters by fitting IBM models.

Evaluating the impact of transmission mode, calibration level and farmer compliance in simulation models of paratuberculosis in dairy herds

Simulation models can predict the outcome of different strategies for the control and eradication of paratuberculosis (PTB) in dairy herds. Two main transmission modes have previously been used to simulate the spread of PTB: direct (contact between animals) and indirect (through the environment). In addition, previous models were calibrated to either low or high within-herd prevalence levels, which we refer to as normal and low hygiene levels, respectively. We simulated both direct and indirect transmission with the same model in both normal and low hygiene level scenarios. The effectiveness of a test-and-cull strategy was dependent on the calibration level of the simulation model, and eradication occurred less frequently with the more biologically plausible indirect transmission mode. The results were compared to within-herd prevalence records from 314 dairy herds. The prevalence in 50% of the herds varied less than 0.9% per year on average, and less than 4% in 90% of the herds. We therefore conclude that the normal-hygiene scenario best describes most dairy herds in Denmark. Finally, we simulated different levels of farmer compliance with a test-and-cull strategy and found that a 60% compliance level was not sufficient to reach eradication within 10 years.

An agent-based model evaluation of economic control strategies for paratuberculosis in a dairy herd

This paper uses an agent-based simulation model to estimate the costs associated with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), or Johne's disease, in a milking herd, and to determine the net benefits of implementing various control strategies. The net present value (NPV) of a 1,000-cow milking herd is calculated over 20 yr, parametrized to a representative US commercial herd. The revenues of the herd are generated from sales of milk and culled animals. The costs include all variable and fixed costs necessary to operate a representative 1,000-cow milking herd. We estimate the NPV of the herd with no MAP infection, under an expected endemic infection distribution with no controls, and under an expected endemic infection distribution with various controls. The initial number of cows in a herd with an endemic MAP infection is distributed as 75% susceptible, 13% latent, 9% low MAP shedding, and 3% high MAP shedding. Control strategies include testing using ELISA and fecal culture tests and culling of cows that test positive, and culling based on observable milk production decrease. Results show that culling cows based on test results does not increase the herd's NPV and in most cases decreases NPV due to test costs as well as false positives and negatives with their associated costs (e.g., culling healthy cows and keeping infected cows). Culling consistently low producing cows when MAP is believed to be present in the herd produces higher NPV over the strategy of testing and culling MAP infected animals, and over the case of no MAP control.

Incidence of fecal excretion of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in dairy cows before and after the enrolment in the Québec voluntary program

Paratuberculosis is a chronic and contagious enteric disease of ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). This disease of worldwide distribution is responsible for significant economic losses and the bacteria itself has been linked to human Crohn's disease. Paratuberculosis control programs focus on reducing MAP transmission by implementing better management practices that target infection routes. In Québec, a Voluntary Paratuberculosis Prevention and Control Program (QVPPCP) was launched in 2007. The objectives of this prospective cohort study were threefold. The first was to describe the changes in the incidence of fecal excretion of MAP in cows born before and after farm enrolment in the QVPPCP. The second was to estimate the impact of the risk of within-herd transmission of MAP (measured by the risk assessment score (RAS)) on the incidence of fecal excretion of MAP. And the third was to evaluate the impact of calf rearing practices on the incidence of fecal excretion of MAP. Eighteen MAP-positive herds were visited annually from 2011 to 2015. At each visit, individual fecal samples from all adult cows were collected. MAP was cultured using liquid media and an automated system. A risk assessment questionnaire was completed upon enrolment in the QVPPCP and at each visit. The RAS of the farm was attributed to each cow according to its birthdate. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) for the exposure variables. Herd clustering was taken into account using robust standard errors. A total of 2158 cows were included (cohort born before n=919; cohort born after n=1239). The incidence and hazard of fecal excretion were significantly lower for the cohort-after than the cohort-before (incidence rate ratio=0.38; 95% CI: 0.18-0.78 and HR=0.48; 95% CI: 0.23-0.98). The HR of fecal excretion for cows exposed to a high RAS was 2.20 times (95% CI: 1.21-3.99) that of cows exposed to a low RAS. Poor calving cow hygiene (HR=3.41; 95% CI: 1.40-8.31) and contact between pre-weaned heifers and adult cows or their feces were significantly associated with an increased hazard of fecal excretion of MAP (HR=2.66; 95% CI: 1.08-6.56). Our results suggest that enrolment in the QVPPCP reduces the risk of MAP fecal excretion. They support the hypothesis that contact between calves and adult cows or their feces increases MAP transmission. The incidence results also suggest that MAP prevalence could be reduced to low levels regardless of initial MAP prevalence.

Use of an Individual-based Model to Control Transmission Pathways of Mycobacterium avium Subsp. paratuberculosis Infection in Cattle Herds

Johne’s disease (JD) is a chronic enteric disease in cattle caused by Mycobacterium avian subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Eradicating JD is a difficult task due to the long incubation period of MAP, inefficient diagnostic tests, and delayed clinical signs. Effective control strategies can help farmers to reduce prevalence, but those most acceptable to farmers combine specific information about lactation performance and testing results, which existing models do not provide. This paper presents an individual-based model of MAP infection dynamics and assesses the relative performance of the applied alternative control strategies. The base dairy herd model included the daily life events of a dairy cow and reflects several current dairy management processes. We then integrated MAP infection dynamics into the model. The model adopted four different test-based control strategies based on risk-based culling decisions and three hygiene scenarios. The model tracked the source of each infection and quantified the efficacy of each control strategy in reducing the risks of different transmission routes. The results suggest that risk-based culling can reduce prevalence compared with no control, but cannot eliminate the infection. Overall, this work provides not only a valuable tool to investigate MAP transmission dynamics but also offers adaptability to model similar infectious diseases.

Reducing Foodborne Pathogen Persistence and Transmission in Animal Production Environments: Challenges and Opportunities

Preharvest strategies to reduce zoonotic pathogens in food animals are important components of the farm-to-table food safety continuum. The problem is complex; there are multiple pathogens of concern, multiple animal species under different production and management systems, and a variety of sources of pathogens, including other livestock and domestic animals, wild animals and birds, insects, water, and feed. Preharvest food safety research has identified a number of intervention strategies, including probiotics, direct-fed microbials, competitive exclusion cultures, vaccines, and bacteriophages, in addition to factors that can impact pathogens on-farm, such as seasonality, production systems, diet, and dietary additives. Moreover, this work has revealed both challenges and opportunities for reducing pathogens in food animals. Animals that shed high levels of pathogens and predominant pathogen strains that exhibit long-term persistence appear to play significant roles in maintaining the prevalence of pathogens in animals and their production environment. Continued investigation and advancements in sequencing and other technologies are expected to reveal the mechanisms that result in super-shedding and persistence, in addition to increasing the prospects for selection of pathogen-resistant food animals and understanding of the microbial ecology of the gastrointestinal tract with regard to zoonotic pathogen colonization. It is likely that this continued research will reveal other challenges, which may further indicate potential targets or critical control points for pathogen reduction in livestock. Additional benefits of the preharvest reduction of pathogens in food animals are the reduction of produce, water, and environmental contamination, and thereby lower risk for human illnesses linked to these sources.

Simulating the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Paratuberculosis Control Actions in Dairy Cattle

We describe a new mechanistic bioeconomic model for simulating the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) within a dairy cattle herd. The model includes age-dependent susceptibility for infection; age-dependent sensitivity for detection; environmental MAP build up in five separate areas of the farm; in utero infection; infection via colostrum and waste milk, and it allows for realistic culling (i.e., due to other diseases) by including a ranking system. We calibrated the model using a unique dataset from Denmark, including 102 random farms with no control actions against spread of MAP. Likewise, four control actions recommended in the Danish MAP control program were implemented in the model based on reported management strategies in Danish dairy herds in a MAP control scheme. We tested the model parameterization in a sensitivity analysis. We show that a test-and-cull strategy is on average the most cost-effective solution to decrease the prevalence and increase the total net revenue on a farm with low hygiene, but not more profitable than no control strategy on a farm with average hygiene. Although it is possible to eradicate MAP from the farm by implementing all four control actions from the Danish MAP control program, it was not economically attractive since the expenses for the control actions outweigh the benefits. Furthermore, the three most popular control actions against the spread of MAP on the farm were found to be costly and inefficient in lowering the prevalence when used independently.

Impact of the shedding level on transmission of persistent infections in Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP)

Super-shedders are infectious individuals that contribute a disproportionate amount of infectious pathogen load to the environment. A super-shedder host may produce up to 10,000 times more pathogens than other infectious hosts. Super-shedders have been reported for multiple human and animal diseases. If their contribution to infection dynamics was linear to the pathogen load, they would dominate infection dynamics. We here focus on quantifying the effect of super-shedders on the spread of infection in natural environments to test if such an effect actually occurs in Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). We study a case where the infection dynamics and the bacterial load shed by each host at every point in time are known. Using a maximum likelihood approach, we estimate the parameters of a model with multiple transmission routes, including direct contact, indirect contact and a background infection risk. We use longitudinal data from persistent infections (MAP), where infectious individuals have a wide distribution of infectious loads, ranging upward of three orders of magnitude. We show based on these parameters that the effect of super-shedders for MAP is limited and that the effect of the individual bacterial load is limited and the relationship between bacterial load and the infectiousness is highly concave. A 1000-fold increase in the bacterial contribution is equivalent to up to a 2-3 fold increase in infectiousness.

A new compartmental model of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection dynamics in cattle

Models of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), a chronic infectious agent of cattle, are used to identify effective control programs. However, new biological findings show that adult infections occur and that infected animals can be separated into 2 paths: animals that will become high-shedding and, eventually, experience clinical disease (high-path); and animals that will shed only small quantities of MAP and will remain subclinical (low-path). Longitudinal data analysis found that high-path animals progress more quickly than previously believed. A standard model of MAP transmission in dairy herds was modified to include adult low-path infections and 2 infection pathways for infected calves. Analysis of this model showed that adult infection may play an important role in MAP dynamics on a dairy farm, and that the increased rate of progression for high-path animals influences both the prevalence and the persistence of MAP on a dairy farm. This new model will be able to determine the effectiveness of MAP control programs more accurately than previous models.

Longitudinal data collection of Mycobacterium avium subspecies Paratuberculosis infections in dairy herds: the value of precise field data

Longitudinal infection data on Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) was collected on three dairy farms in Northeastern United States during approximately 10 years. Precise data on animal characteristics and animal location within farm were collected on these farms. Cows were followed over time with regard to MAP status during biannual fecal and serum sampling and quarterly serum sampling. Approximately 13 000 serum samples, 6500 fecal samples and 2000 tissue samples were collected during these years. Prevalence of positive samples was 1.4% for serological samples, 2.2% in fecal samples and 16.7% in tissue samples. Infection dynamics of MAP was studied and resulted in a number of potential changes in our understanding of MAP infection dynamics. First, a high prevalence of MAP infection was observed in these herds due to lifetime follow up of cows, including slaughter. Second, two distinctly different infection patterns were observed, so called non-progressors and progressors. Non-progressors were characterized by intermittent and low shedding of MAP bacteria and a virtual absence of a humoral immune response. Progressors were characterized by continuous and progressive shedding and a clearly detectable and progressive humoral immune response. Strain typing of MAP isolates on the three farms identified on two of three farms a dominant strain type, indicating that some strains are more successful in terms of transmission and infection progression. Continuous high quality longitudinal data collection turned out to be an essential tool in our understanding of pathobiology and epidemiology of MAP infections in dairy herds.

Agent-based model for Johne's disease dynamics in a dairy herd

Johne’s disease is an infectious gastrointestinal disease in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis that causes diarrhea, emaciation, decreased milk production and eventually death. The disease is transmitted in utero and via milk and colostrums to calves, and fecal-orally to all age classes. Financial losses due to the disease are estimated to be over $200 million in the US dairy industry. The goal of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of control measures based on diagnosis with a sensitive ELISA, EVELISA. An agent-based, discrete time model was developed to simulate Johne’s disease dynamics in a US dairy herd. Spatial aspects of disease transmission were taken into account by using six spatial compartments. The effects on disease prevalence were studied with and without transmission routes included in the model. Further, using the model, cost effectiveness of ELISA-based Johne’s disease control was evaluated. Using the parameters we collected and assumed, our model showed the initial prevalence of Johne’s disease (33.1 ± 0.2%) in the farm increased to 87.7 ± 1.7% in a 10 year-simulation. When ELISA-based control measures were included in the simulation, the increase in prevalence was significantly slowed down, especially when EVELISA was used. However, the level of the prevalence was still higher than the initial level after 10 year simulation even with the ELISA-based diagnostic intervention. The prevalence was further reduced when quarterly ELISA testing was included. The cost analysis showed that the quarterly ELISA and EVELISA testing could bring $44.8 and $51.5/animal/year more revenues, respectively, to a dairy farm.

Calves shedding Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis are common on infected dairy farms

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) causes Johne’s disease, a chronic progressive enteritis. It is generally assumed that calves rarely shed MAP bacteria and that calf-to-calf transmission is of minor importance. The objectives were 1) to estimate the prevalence of MAP-shedding young stock in MAP-infected dairy herds, and identify predictors for test-positive young stock; and 2) to estimate proportions of MAP-contaminated young stock group housing pens and air spaces, and furthermore, identify predictors for test-positive pens. Fecal samples were collected from 2606 young stock on 18 MAP-infected dairy farms. Environmental fecal samples were collected from all group-housing pens and dust samples were collected from all barns. All individual samples were analysed using IS900 and F57 qPCR; fecal samples positive by either PCR and all environmental and dust samples were cultured. Overall, 8.1, 1.2 and 2.0% of cattle were positive on IS900 qPCR, F57 qPCR and bacterial culture, respectively. Young stock housed on farms with culture-positive environmental samples collected from adult cow housing and manure storage had higher odds of testing IS900 qPCR-positive than young stock housed on farms with only negative environmental samples. Furthermore, 14% of collected environmental samples, but no dust samples, were test-positive. Age of cattle in the pen was a significant predictor for environmental sample results. Young stock excreted MAP bacteria in their feces which provided strong evidence for calves as sources of within-herd transmission of MAP on dairy farms known to be infected with this organism.

Characterization of the inflammatory phenotype of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis using a novel cell culture passage model

Understanding the pathogenic mechanisms of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) and the host responses to Johne's disease is complicated by the multi-faceted disease progression, late-onset host reaction and the lack of available ex vivo infection models. We describe a novel cell culture passage model that mimics the course of infection in vivo. The developed model simulates the interaction of MAP with the intestinal epithelial cells, followed by infection of macrophages and return to the intestinal epithelium. MAP internalization triggers a minimal inflammatory response. After passage through a macrophage phase, bacterial reinfection of MDBK epithelial cells, representing the late phase of intestinal mucosal infection, is associated with increased synthesis of the pro-inflammatory transcripts of IL-6, CCL5, IL-8 and IL-18, paired with decreased levels of TGFβ. Transcriptome analysis of MAP from each stage of epithelial cell infection identified increased expression of lipid biosynthesis and lipopeptide modification genes in the inflammatory phenotype of MAP. Total lipid analysis by HPLC-ES/MS indicates different lipidomic profiles between the two phenotypes and a unique set of lipids composing the inflammatory MAP phenotype. The presence of selected upregulated lipid-modification gene transcripts in samples of ileal tissue from cows diagnosed with Johne's disease supports and validates the model. By using the relatively simple cell culture passage model, we show that MAP alters its lipid composition during intracellular infection and acquires a pro-inflammatory phenotype, which likely is associated with the inflammatory phase of Johne's disease.

Back to the real world: connecting models with data

Mathematical models for infectious disease are often used to improve our understanding of infection biology or to evaluate the potential efficacy of intervention programs. Here, we develop a mathematical model that aims to describe infection dynamics of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). The model was developed using current knowledge of infection biology and also includes some components of MAP infection dynamics that are currently still hypothetical. The objective was to show methods for parameter estimation of state transition models and to connect simulation models with detailed real life data. Thereby making model predictions and results of simulations more reflective and predictive of real world situations. Longitudinal field data from a large observational study are used to estimate parameter values. It is shown that precise data, including molecular diagnostics on the obtained MAP strains, results in more precise and realistic parameter estimates. It is argued that modeling of infection disease dynamics is of great value to understand the patho-biology, epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The quality of conclusions drawn from model studies depend on two key issues; first, the quality of biology that has gone in the process of developing the model structure; second the quality of the data that go into the estimation of the parameters and the quality and quantity of the data that go into model validation. The more real world data that are used in the model building process, the more likely that modeling studies will provide novel, innovative and valid results.

Progression to multi-scale models and the application to food system intervention strategies

The aim of this article is to discuss how the systems science approach can be used to optimize intervention strategies in food animal systems. It advocates the idea that the challenges of maintaining a safe food supply are best addressed by integrating modeling and mathematics with biological studies critical to formulation of public policy to address these challenges. Much information on the biology and epidemiology of food animal systems has been characterized through single-discipline methods, but until now this information has not been thoroughly utilized in a fully integrated manner. The examples are drawn from our current research. The first, explained in depth, uses clinical mastitis to introduce the concept of dynamic programming to optimize management decisions in dairy cows (also introducing the curse of dimensionality problem). In the second example, a compartmental epidemic model for Johne's disease with different intervention strategies is optimized. The goal of the optimization strategy depends on whether there is a relationship between Johne's and Crohn's disease. If so, optimization is based on eradication of infection; if not, it is based on the cow's performance only (i.e., economic optimization, similar to the mastitis example). The third example focuses on food safety to introduce risk assessment using Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella Typhimurium. The last example, practical interventions to effectively manage antibiotic resistance in beef and dairy cattle systems, introduces meta-population modeling that accounts for bacterial growth not only in the host (cow), but also in the cow's feed, drinking water and the housing environment. Each example stresses the need to progress toward multi-scale modeling. The article ends with examples of multi-scale systems, from food supply systems to Johne's disease. Reducing the consequences of foodborne illnesses (i.e., minimizing disease occurrence and associated costs) can only occur through an understanding of the system as a whole, including all its complexities. Thus the goal of future research should be to merge disciplines such as molecular biology, applied mathematics and social sciences to gain a better understanding of complex systems such as the food supply chain.

Shedding patterns of dairy calves experimentally infected with Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis

Although substantial fecal shedding is expected to start years after initial infection with Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), the potential for shedding by calves and therefore calf-to-calf transmission is underestimated in current Johne’s disease (JD) control programs. Shedding patterns were determined in this study in experimentally infected calves. Fifty calves were challenged at 2 weeks or at 3, 6, 9 or 12 months of age (6 calves served as a control group). In each age group, 5 calves were inoculated with a low and 5 with a high dose of MAP. Fecal culture was performed monthly until necropsy at 17 months of age. Overall, 61% of inoculated calves, representing all age and dose groups, shed MAP in their feces at least once during the follow-up period. Although most calves shed sporadically, 4 calves in the 2-week and 3-month high dose groups shed at every sampling. In general, shedding peaked 2 months after inoculation. Calves inoculated at 2 weeks or 3 months with a high dose of MAP shed more frequently than those inoculated with a low dose. Calves shedding frequently had more culture-positive tissue locations and more severe gross and histological lesions at necropsy. In conclusion, calves inoculated up to 1 year of age shed MAP in their feces shortly after inoculation. Consequently, there is potential for MAP transfer between calves (especially if they are group housed) and therefore, JD control programs should consider young calves as a source of infection.

Effect of delayed exposure of cattle to Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis on the development of subclinical and clinical Johne's disease

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of delayed exposure of dairy cattle to Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) on the incidence of those cows testing positive for MAP and developing clinical Johne's disease (CJD).

ANIMALS

79 cows not exposed to MAP as calves (unexposed cohort) and 260 cows exposed to MAP as calves (exposed cohort).

PROCEDURES

Cows in the unexposed cohort were born into 5 MAP-uninfected herds and introduced at various ages into 5 MAP-infected herds where the exposed cohort cows were born and raised. Beginning when each cow was 24 months old, fecal and serum samples were collected annually from 2003 through 2006. Feces were cultured for MAP, and an ELISA was used to analyze serum samples for antibodies against MAP. Date and reason for culling were obtained from herd records. Incidence of positive culture and ELISA results and CJD was compared between unexposed and exposed cohort cows with Cox regression.

RESULTS

Compared with exposed cohort cows, the hazard ratios for unexposed cohort cows having positive culture results, having positive ELISA results, and developing CJD were 0.12, 0.03, and 0.001, respectively, and those ratios increased by 2%, 6%, and 17%, respectively, for each month spent in an MAP-infected herd.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Delayed exposure of cows to MAP resulted in lower incidences of positive culture and ELISA results and CJD in those cows, compared with incidences of cows exposed to MAP since birth. The hazard of testing positive for MAP or developing CJD increased with time, regardless of cohort.

Evidence of passive faecal shedding of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in a Limousin cattle herd

It has been suggested that passive shedding of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in faeces may occur, but reliable data are missing. Passive shedding assumes the ingestion of MAP in contaminated feed and passive passage through the gastrointestinal tract without causing infection. In this study the presence of MAP in faeces in a closed herd of Limousin cattle was monitored for 53 months using quantitative real time PCR (qPCR) and culture. The initial prevalence of MAP in the herd was determined to be 63.4% and 4.9% using qPCR and culture, respectively. After the removal of two culture- and qPCR-positive (>10(4) MAP cells/g) cows, the prevalence of MAP using qPCR decreased to 42.1% and later to 15.6% and 6.7%. The continuous removal of suspected animals from the herd during the monitoring period minimised the presence of MAP in faeces to sporadic, which may have resulted from a decrease in the environmental infectious pressure. The findings suggest that the presence of low numbers of MAP in bovine faeces may not necessarily be caused by real infection, but rather by passive passage of MAP. This phenomenon should therefore be considered when interpreting MAP qPCR data.

MODELING FOR COST ANALYSIS OF JOHNE'S DISEASE CONTROL BASED ON EVELISA TESTING

Use of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is recommended for control of Johne's disease (JD) in the cattle industry. A recent report showed that prevalence of JD in dairy farms could be reduced by applying an ELISA-based control strategy, even though the sensitivity of the current ELISA has been reported to be lower than 30%. We previously developed a more sensitive ELISA test (EVELISA; Ethanol Vortex ELISA) for diagnosis of JD and, in this report, aimed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of the EVELISA in JD control compared to that of a current ELISA test. For simulation of population dynamics, we developed a deterministic, discrete-time mathematical model incorporating contact structure, possibility of adult infection and the concept of order of events. In our model, the number of animals infected with the causative agent of JD, Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), increases in a 10-year simulation if no JD control measure is applied. When test results of ELISA or EVELISA are used for JD control, the increase in MAP-infected animals is less significant. According to our model, EVELISA-based control measures increase the annual per capita revenue of US dairy farms when compared to no JD control and ELISA-based JD control, respectively.

Evaluation [corrected] of the "Iceberg Phenomenon" in Johne's disease through mathematical modelling

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic, enteric disease in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Disease progression follows four distinct stages: silent, subclinical, clinical and advanced. Available diagnostic tests have poor sensitivity and cannot detect early stages of the infection; as a result, only animals in the clinical and advanced stages, which represent the tip of the ‘iceberg’, are identified through testing. The Iceberg Phenomenon is then applied to provide estimates for JD prevalence. For one animal in the advanced stage, it is assumed that there are one to two in the clinical stage, four to eight in the subclinical stage, and ten to fourteen in the silent stage. These ratios, however, are based on little evidence. To evaluate the ratios, we developed a deterministic ordinary differential equation model of JD transmission and disease progression dynamics. When duration periods associated with the natural course of the disease progression are used, the above ratios do not hold. The ratios used to estimate JD prevalence need to be further investigated.

Dynamics of specific anti-Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis antibody response through age

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) causes a chronic infection in cattle. MAP infected cattle with humoral immune (HI) reactions with IgG antibodies are usually those where latency of infection has ceased and their infection is progressing towards reduced milk yield, weight loss and significant bacterial excretion in feces. The proportion of detectable infections among all infected animals that will develop disease is often referred to as 'the tip of the iceberg'. The purpose of this study was to estimate this proportion. Test-records from 18,972 Danish dairy cows with MAP specific IgG antibodies on their final test-record were used to estimate age-specific sensitivities (Se). These cows were the infected ones considered to develop disease in a population with a representative age-distribution and were defined as cases. The specificity (Sp) of the test was estimated based on test-results from 166,905 cows, which had no MAP IgG antibodies in their final four test-records. The Sp, age-specific Se and maximum Se were used to estimate the probability of having HI at a given age resulting in the proportion of infected cows with HI at a given age. For cows 2 years of age, the proportion of detectable cases was 0.33, while it was 0.94 for cows 5 years of age. Thus, there was a significant shift in the tip of the iceberg with aging. This study provided a model for estimating the proportion of latent chronic infections that would progress to disease, and the results can be used to model infection dynamics.

Using vaccination to prevent the invasion of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in dairy herds: a stochastic simulation study

Paratuberculosis, or Johne's disease (JD), is a chronic enteric disease of ruminants infected by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) that causes a significant financial loss in dairy industry. To reduce prevalence and transmission in dairy herds infected with MAP, control programs have been implemented, including test-based culling, improved calf rearing management, and vaccination. The important issue of preventing MAP invasion into a MAP-free herd has been less investigated, however. The objective of this study was to examine whether vaccination was able to prevent MAP invasion in dairy cattle using a stochastic simulation approach. We developed a MAP vaccination model in which calves were vaccinated with a vaccine that is both imperfect in reducing the susceptibility of the host ('leaky') and that does not successfully immunize all calves ('failure in take'). Probability of MAP persistence and the number of infected animals in herds were computed for both control and vaccinated herds over a ten-year period after introduction of an initial infected heifer. Global parameter sensitivity analyses were performed to find the most influential parameters for MAP invasion. Our results show that vaccination of calves is effective in preventing MAP invasion, provided that the vaccine is of high efficacy in both reduction of susceptibility and 'take' effects; however, there is still a small chance (<0.15) that MAP can be sustained in herds over a long time (>10 years) due to vertical transmission. This study indicates that reduction in the transmission rate of high shedders (>50 CFU), the number of infected heifers initially introduced to herds, and vertical transmission are important to further decrease the probability of MAP becoming endemic and the overall number of infected animals in endemic herds. The simulation work is useful for designing vaccination programs aimed at preventing MAP invasion in MAP-free herds.

Evaluation [corrected] of the "Iceberg Phenomenon" in Johne's disease through mathematical modelling

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic, enteric disease in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Disease progression follows four distinct stages: silent, subclinical, clinical and advanced. Available diagnostic tests have poor sensitivity and cannot detect early stages of the infection; as a result, only animals in the clinical and advanced stages, which represent the tip of the 'iceberg', are identified through testing. The Iceberg Phenomenon is then applied to provide estimates for JD prevalence. For one animal in the advanced stage, it is assumed that there are one to two in the clinical stage, four to eight in the subclinical stage, and ten to fourteen in the silent stage. These ratios, however, are based on little evidence. To evaluate the ratios, we developed a deterministic ordinary differential equation model of JD transmission and disease progression dynamics. When duration periods associated with the natural course of the disease progression are used, the above ratios do not hold. The ratios used to estimate JD prevalence need to be further investigated.

Reduction in incidence of Johne's disease associated with implementation of a disease control program in Minnesota demonstration herds

This prospective longitudinal observational study was conducted to evaluate the effect of a standardized control program on the incidence of Johne's disease in 8 dairy herds in Minnesota. Depending on recruitment year, herds were followed for between 5 and 10 yr. Program compliance was evaluated using a cohort risk assessment score by birth cohort. Fecal samples from cows in study herds were tested annually using bacterial culture to detect Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), and serum samples from study cows were tested using an ELISA to detect antibodies to MAP. Clinical Johne's disease was also recorded. Cohort risk assessment score decreased along birth cohorts. Depending on the follow-up period in each herd, 5 to 8 birth cohorts were followed to describe changes in time to MAP bacterial culture positivity, serum ELISA positivity, MAP heavy shedding status, and clinical Johne's disease. The analysis of time to bacterial culture positivity, serum ELISA positivity, heavy fecal shedding status, and clinical Johne's disease using a time-dependent Cox regression indicated a reduction of the instantaneous hazard ratio by birth cohorts and by cohort risk score; however, the strength of association between the cohort risk score and each of the 4 disease outcomes decreased over time. The age at which the cows first tested positive for bacterial culture, serum ELISA, and heavy fecal shedding, and the age of the cows at onset of clinical Johne's disease signs remained constant for all birth cohorts. Based on herd risk scores, overall herds complied with the recommended management practices in the program. Results were consistent with a within-herd reduction of Johne's disease transmission, and that reduction was associated with herd-level management practices implemented as part of the control program.

Accounting for uncertainty in model-based prevalence estimation: paratuberculosis control in dairy herds

Background

A common approach to the application of epidemiological models is to determine a single (point estimate) parameterisation using the information available in the literature. However, in many cases there is considerable uncertainty about parameter values, reflecting both the incomplete nature of current knowledge and natural variation, for example between farms. Furthermore model outcomes may be highly sensitive to different parameter values. Paratuberculosis is an infection for which many of the key parameter values are poorly understood and highly variable, and for such infections there is a need to develop and apply statistical techniques which make maximal use of available data.

Results

A technique based on Latin hypercube sampling combined with a novel reweighting method was developed which enables parameter uncertainty and variability to be incorporated into a model-based framework for estimation of prevalence. The method was evaluated by applying it to a simulation of paratuberculosis in dairy herds which combines a continuous time stochastic algorithm with model features such as within herd variability in disease development and shedding, which have not been previously explored in paratuberculosis models. Generated sample parameter combinations were assigned a weight, determined by quantifying the model’s resultant ability to reproduce prevalence data. Once these weights are generated the model can be used to evaluate other scenarios such as control options. To illustrate the utility of this approach these reweighted model outputs were used to compare standard test and cull control strategies both individually and in combination with simple husbandry practices that aim to reduce infection rates.

Conclusions

The technique developed has been shown to be applicable to a complex model incorporating realistic control options. For models where parameters are not well known or subject to significant variability, the reweighting scheme allowed estimated distributions of parameter values to be combined with additional sources of information, such as that available from prevalence distributions, resulting in outputs which implicitly handle variation and uncertainty. This methodology allows for more robust predictions from modelling approaches by allowing for parameter uncertainty and combining different sources of information, and is thus expected to be useful in application to a large number of disease systems.

Impact of imperfect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis vaccines in dairy herds: a mathematical modeling approach

The objective of this study was to investigate the potential impacts of imperfect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) vaccines on the dynamics of MAP infection in US dairy herds using a mathematical modeling approach. Vaccine-based control programs have been implemented to reduce the prevalence of MAP infection in some dairy herds; however, MAP vaccines are imperfect. Vaccines can provide partial protection for susceptible calves, reduce the infectiousness of animals shedding MAP, lengthen the latent period of infected animals, slow the progression from low shedding to high shedding in infectious animals, and reduce clinical disease. To quantitatively study the impacts of imperfect MAP vaccines, we developed a deterministic multi-group vaccination model and performed global sensitivity analyses. Our results explain why MAP vaccination might have a beneficial, negligible, or detrimental effect in the reduction of prevalence and show that vaccines that are beneficial to individual animals may not be useful for a herd-level control plan. The study suggests that high efficacy vaccines that are aimed at reducing the susceptibility of the host are the most effective in controlling MAP transmission. This work indicates that MAP vaccination should be integrated into a comprehensive control program that includes test-and-cull intervention and improved calf rearing management.

Economic analysis of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis vaccines in dairy herds

Johne's disease, or paratuberculosis, is a chronic infectious enteric disease of ruminants, caused by infection with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Given the absence of a fail-safe method of prevention or a cure, Johne's disease can inflict significant economic loss on the US dairy industry, with an estimated annual cost of over $200 million. Currently available MAP control strategies include management measures to improve hygiene, culling MAP serologic- or fecal-positive adult cows, and vaccination. Although the 2 first control strategies have been reported to be effective in reducing the incidence of MAP infection, the changes in herd management needed to conduct these control strategies require significant effort on the part of the dairy producer. On the other hand, vaccination is relatively simple to apply and requires minor changes in herd management. Despite these advantages, only 5% of US dairy operations use vaccination to control MAP. This low level of adoption of this technology is due to limited information on its cost-effectiveness and efficacy and some important inherent drawbacks associated with current MAP vaccines. This study investigates the epidemiological effect and economic values of MAP vaccines in various stages of development. We create scenarios for the potential epidemiological effects of MAP vaccines, and then estimate economically justifiable monetary values at which vaccines become economically beneficial to dairy producers such that a net present value (NPV) of a farm's net cash flow can be higher than the NPV of a farm using no control or alternative nonvaccine controls. Any vaccination with either low or high efficacy considered in this study yielded a higher NPV compared with a no MAP control. Moreover, high-efficacy vaccines generated an even higher NPV compared with alternative controls, making vaccination economically attractive. Two high-efficacy vaccines were particularly effective in MAP control and NPV maximization. One was a high-efficacy vaccine that reduced susceptibility to MAP infection. The other was a high-efficacy vaccine that had multiple efficacies on the dynamics of MAP infection and disease progress. Only one high-efficacy vaccine, in which the vaccine is targeted at reducing MAP shedding and the number of clinical cases, was not economically beneficial to dairy producers compared with an alternative nonvaccine control, when herds were highly infected with MAP.

A 60-day probiotic protocol with Dietzia subsp. C79793-74 prevents development of Johne's disease parameters after in utero and/or neonatal MAP infection

The research reported herein was designed to assess whether the bacterium, Dietzia subspecies C79793-74, used as a probiotic, could prevent development of parameters indicative of bovine paratuberculosis after potential in utero, birthing and neonatal (colostrum) exposure to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). Such exposure avenues are especially relevant for dairy farms practicing good management procedures since calves on these farms could be infected via dams that have yet to be identified as MAP-positive. Indeed, of 18 calves in the present study that became paratuberculosis parameter-positive, five had dams that were negative for all parameters pre-calving. Parameters used herein to define paratuberculosis status were serum ELISA, serum agar gel immunodiffusion, cultureable fecal MAP, histopathology at necropsy and clinical disease. Thirty-four newborn calves, whose dams were paratuberculosis-positive, were assigned to four different treatment groups. Ten were treated daily for 60 days with viable Dietzia added to their antibiotic-free milk feedings; none became positive for any parameter with age. In contrast, seven of eight calves that were not treated became positive for one or more paratuberculosis-associated parameter. Sixteen calves were treated with viable Dietzia for the first two days of life; eight were then not treated further, whereas the other eight were treated an additional 58 days with Dietzia added to tetracycline-fortified milk (Dietzia is sensitive to tetracycline). In these two groups, positivity developed in five of eight and six of eight, respectively. These results indicated that (a) a daily, 60-day treatment with viable Dietzia effectively prevented development of parameters indicative of paratuberculosis and (b) this treatment, in combination with good management practices, has the potential to eradicate MAP from animals/herds, which should curtail the spread of MAP. Such results should significantly reduce human exposure to MAP, which in turn, could have relevance for the controversial role of MAP in Crohn's disease, type-1 diabetes mellitus, sarcoidosis, Blau syndrome, ulcerative colitis, irritable bowel syndrome and multiple sclerosis.

A meta-analysis of the effect of dose and age at exposure on shedding of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) in experimentally infected calves and cows

A meta-analysis was performed using all published and one unpublished long-term infection-challenge experiments to quantify the age- and dose-dependence of early and late shedding of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in cattle. There were 194 animals from 17 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria, of which 173 received a known dose of MAP and 21 were exposed naturally. Results from parametric time-to-event models indicated that challenging older calves or using multiple-exposure experimental systems resulted in a smaller proportion and shorter duration of early shedding as well as slower transition to late shedding from latent compartments. Calves exposed naturally showed variable infection progression rates, not dissimilar to other infection routes. The log-normal distribution was most appropriate for modelling infection-progression events. The infection pattern revealed by the modelling allowed better understanding of low-grade endemicity of MAP in cattle, and the parameter estimates are the basis for future transmission dynamics modelling.

Predicting fadeout versus persistence of paratuberculosis in a dairy cattle herd for management and control purposes: a modelling study

Epidemiological models enable to better understand the dynamics of infectious diseases and to assess ex-ante control strategies. For Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map), possible transmission routes have been described, but Map spread in a herd and the relative importance of the routes are currently insufficiently understood to prioritize control measures. We aim to predict early after Map introduction in a dairy cattle herd whether infection is likely to fade out or persist, when no control measures are implemented, using a modelling approach. Both vertical transmission and horizontal transmission via the ingestion of colostrum, milk, or faeces present in the contaminated environment were modelled. Calf-to-calf indirect transmission was possible. Six health states were represented: susceptible, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, clinically affected, and resistant. The model was partially validated by comparing the simulated prevalence with field data. Housing facilities and contacts between animals were specifically considered for calves and heifers. After the introduction of one infected animal in a naive herd, fadeout occurred in 66% of the runs. When Map persisted, the prevalence of infected animals increased to 88% in 25 years. The two main transmission routes were via the farm's environment and in utero transmission. Calf-to-calf transmission was minor. Fadeout versus Map persistence could be differentiated with the number of clinically affected animals, which was rarely above one when fadeout occurred. Therefore, early detection of affected animals is crucial in preventing Map persistence in dairy herds.

Molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in a longitudinal study of three dairy herds

The objective of this study was to evaluate whether cows that were low shedders of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis were passively shedding or truly infected with M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis. We also investigated whether it is possible that these M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis-infected animals could have been infected as adults by contemporary high-shedding animals (supershedders). The M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis isolates were obtained from a longitudinal study of three dairy herds in the northeastern United States. Isolates were selected from fecal samples and tissues at slaughter from all animals that were culture positive at the same time that supershedders were present in the herds. Shedding levels (CFU of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis/g of feces) for the animals at each culture-positive occasion were determined. Using a multilocus short-sequence-repeat technique, we found 15 different strains of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis from a total of 142 isolates analyzed. Results indicated herd-specific infection patterns; there was a clonal infection in herd C, with 89% of isolates from animals sharing the same strain, whereas herds A and B showed several different strains infecting the animals at the same time. Tissues from 80% of cows with at least one positive fecal culture (other than supershedders) were culture positive, indicating a true M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection. The results of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis strain typing and observed shedding levels showed that at least 50% of low shedders have the same strain as that of a contemporary supershedder. Results of this study suggest that in a dairy herd, more of the low-shedding cows are truly infected with M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis than are passively shedding M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis. The sharing of strains between low shedders and the contemporary supershedders suggests that low shedders may have been infected by environmental exposure of M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis.

Invited review: modeling within-herd transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in dairy cattle: a review

Epidemiological models have been developed to test hypotheses on Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (Map) transmission in a herd, and to compare different paratuberculosis control strategies and alternatives for certification-and-surveillance schemes. The models are simplified representations of existing biological processes tailored to the questions they are intended to answer. Such models depend on available knowledge about the underlying processes, notably in relation to pathogen transmission. All decisions relating to integration of specific aspects of the herd structure and transmission mechanisms as well as modeling objective will influence model behavior and simulation results. This paper examines assumptions on pathogen transmission and risk mitigation represented in 8 epidemiological models of within-herd Map transmission in dairy cattle. We describe available models' structure and examine them in the context of current knowledge about host infection and pathogen transmission pathways. We investigate how population structure and herd management are modeled with regard to their influence on contact structure and pathogen transmission. We show that assumptions about routes of transmission and their contribution within a herd vary greatly among models. Gaps of knowledge that are pivotal to defining transmission equations and parameters, such as variation of susceptibility with age and variability of pattern of shedding, are identified. Quantitative estimates of this incomplete information should be targeted by future research. Existing models could be improved by considering indirect transmission via the environment taking account of Map survival and contact structure between animals in a herd, and by including calf-to-calf transmission, which has recently been proven as being important.

Dynamics of endemic infectious diseases of animal and human importance on three dairy herds in the northeastern United States

Endemic infectious diseases in dairy cattle are of significant concern to the industry as well as for public health because of their potential impact on animal and human health, milk and meat production, food safety, and economics. We sought to provide insight into the dynamics of important endemic infectious diseases in 3 northeastern US dairy herds. Fecal samples from individual cows and various environmental samples from these farms were tested for the presence of major zoonotic pathogens (i.e., Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Listeria) as well as commensal bacteria Escherichia coli and enterococci. Additionally, the presence of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis was tested in fecal and serum samples from individual cows. Test results and health and reproductive records were maintained in a database, and fecal, plasma, DNA, and tissue samples were kept in a biobank. All bacteria of interest were detected on these farms and their presence was variable both within and between farms. The prevalence of Listeria spp. and L. monocytogenes in individual fecal samples within farm A ranged from 0 to 68.2% and 0 to 25.5%, respectively, over a period of 3 yr. Within farm B, continuous fecal shedding of Salmonella spp. was observed with a prevalence ranging from 8 to 88%; Salmonella Cerro was the predominant serotype. Farm C appeared less contaminated with Salmonella and Listeria, although in the summer of 2005, 50 and 19.2% of fecal samples were positive for Listeria and L. monocytogenes, respectively. The high prevalence of E. coli (89 to 100%), Enterococcus (75 to 100%), and Campylobacter (0 to 81%) in feces suggested they were ubiquitous throughout the farm environment. Fecal culture and ELISA results indicated a low prevalence of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis infection in these farms (0 to 13.6% and 0 to 4.9% for culture-positive and ELISA-positive, respectively), although the occasional presence of high shedders was observed. Results have major implications for food safety and epidemiology by providing a better understanding of infectious disease dynamics on dairy farms. Comprehensive understanding of these infections may lead to better farm management practices and pathogen reduction programs to control and reduce the on-farm contamination of these pathogens and to prevent their further entry into the food-chain.

Molecular ecology of Listeria monocytogenes: evidence for a reservoir in milking equipment on a dairy farm

A longitudinal study aimed to detect Listeria monocytogenes on a New York State dairy farm was conducted between February 2004 and July 2007. Fecal samples were collected every 6 months from all lactating cows. Approximately 20 environmental samples were obtained every 3 months. Bulk tank milk samples and in-line milk filter samples were obtained weekly. Samples from milking equipment and the milking parlor environment were obtained in May 2007. Fifty-one of 715 fecal samples (7.1%) and 22 of 303 environmental samples (7.3%) were positive for L. monocytogenes. A total of 73 of 108 in-line milk filter samples (67.6%) and 34 of 172 bulk tank milk samples (19.7%) were positive for L. monocytogenes. Listeria monocytogenes was isolated from 6 of 40 (15%) sampling sites in the milking parlor and milking equipment. In-line milk filter samples had a greater proportion of L. monocytogenes than did bulk tank milk samples (P<0.05) and samples from other sources (P<0.05). The proportion of L. monocytogenes-positive samples was greater among bulk tank milk samples than among fecal or environmental samples (P<0.05). Analysis of 60 isolates by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) yielded 23 PFGE types after digestion with AscI and ApaI endonucleases. Three PFGE types of L. monocytogenes were repeatedly found in longitudinally collected samples from bulk tank milk and in-line milk filters.

Super-shedding and the link between human infection and livestock carriage of Escherichia coli O157

Cattle that excrete more Escherichia coli O157 than others are known as super-shedders. Super-shedding has important consequences for the epidemiology of E. coli O157 in cattle--its main reservoir--and for the risk of human infection, particularly owing to environmental exposure. Ultimately, control measures targeted at super-shedders may prove to be highly effective. We currently have only a limited understanding of both the nature and the determinants of super-shedding. However, super-shedding has been observed to be associated with colonization at the terminal rectum and might also occur more often with certain pathogen phage types. More generally, epidemiological evidence suggests that super-shedding might be important in other bacterial and viral infections.