Risk factors for herd breakdown with bovine tuberculosis in 148 cattle herds in the south west of England

Assessing risks for bovine and zoonotic tuberculosis through spatial analysis and a questionnaire survey in Fiji - A pilot study

Mycobacterium bovis causes tuberculosis in cattle and when transmitted to humans typically causes extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB). Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has a global distribution and is controlled in most countries to protect animal and public health. Recent studies revealed that bTB is established on dairy farms in Fiji where EPTB cases have been reported in people. The aims of this pilot investigation were to look for putative zoonotic TB (EPTB) cases in people and to evaluate practices that might contribute to the persistence and transmission of M. bovis between cattle and to humans. Existing data sets were shared between the Fiji Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Health and a questionnaire-based survey was implemented using One Health principles. Statistically significant co-location and close proximity of EPTB cases and bovine TB affected farms were identified. The bTB infection status of farms was significantly associated with unfenced water sources where cattle grazed. Of 247 households, 65 % shared drinking water sources with cattle and 36 % consumed raw milk without boiling, while 62 % of participants reported backyard slaughter of cattle. Several participants reported current symptoms potentially suggestive of TB (chronic cough) but the impact of smoking and history of previous TB treatment could not be evaluated. Farmers had limited understanding of the practices required to prevent bTB at farm level. Further study is recommended and should include an assessment of lifetime EPTB diagnoses, classification of farms based on more recent bTB test data and molecular typing of mycobacterial isolates from humans, cattle and the environment. A targeted awareness and education approach is required to reduce the future risk of zoonotic TB and to help ensure uptake of recommendations and practices aimed at controlling and preventing bTB.

Seroepidemiology of tuberculosis in sheep in southern Spain

Tuberculosis (TB) is a multi-host infectious disease caused by members of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC). In Mediterranean ecosystems, where multiple animal hosts of TB are present, identifying the role of the different species involved in the epidemiology of TB is a key point to be able to implement proper control measures. Sheep are susceptible to MTC infection but have traditionally been considered a spillover host. However, the occurrence of outbreaks involving sheep in recent years evidences the need to better understand the role of this small ruminant species in the epidemiology of the disease. Here, we aimed to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors associated with MTC seropositivity in sheep in Andalusia (southern Spain), a region with one of the highest prevalence of MTC infection in both cattle and wild ungulates. A total of 2266 sheep from 83 flocks were tested for antibodies against MTC using an in-house indirect ELISA. Anti-MTC antibodies were detected in 16 (0.7%) of the 2266 sheep (adjusted true prevalence 0.29%, 95% posterior probability interval 0.01-1.05). Seropositivity was found in 14.5% (12/83; 95%CI: 6.9-22.0) of the sheep farms analyzed. A semi-extensive management system was identified as a risk factor associated with MTC seropositivity in sheep farms (OR = 3.7; p < 0.038; 95%CI: 1.1-12.4) in the study area. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first active TB surveillance study carried out to assess MTC exposure in sheep. Our results indicate MTC circulation in sheep farms in southern Spain. However, the low individual seroprevalence obtained suggests that sheep may play a limited role in the epidemiology of TB in this region. Serosurveillance programs could be a valuable tool to detect MTC circulation in sheep in risk scenarios or target farms, in order to optimize control measures on TB animal in multi-host Mediterranean ecosystems.

Investigating Farm Fragmentation as a Risk Factor for Bovine Tuberculosis in Cattle Herds: A Matched Case-Control Study from Northern Ireland

Bovine tuberculosis remains a challenging endemic pathogen of cattle in many parts of the globe. Spatial clustering of Mycoacterium bovis molecular types in cattle suggests that local factors are the primary drivers of spread. Northern Ireland’s agricultural landscape is comprised of highly fragmented farms, distributed across spatially discontinuous land parcels, and these highly fragmented farms are thought to facilitate localised spread. We conducted a matched case control study to quantify the risks of bovine tuberculosis breakdown with farm area, farm fragmentation, fragment dispersal, and contact with neighbouring herds. Whilst our results show small but significant increases in breakdown risk associated with each factor, these relationships were strongly confounded with the number of contiguous neighbours with bovine tuberculosis. Our key finding was that every infected neighbour led to an increase in the odds of breakdown by 40% to 50%, and that highly fragmented farms were almost twice as likely to have a bTB positive neighbour compared to nonfragmented farms. Our results suggest that after controlling for herd size, herd type, spatial and temporal factors, farm fragmentation increasingly exposes herds to infection originating from first-order spatial neighbours. Given Northern Ireland’s particularly fragmented landscape, and reliance on short-term leases, our data support the hypothesis that between-herd contiguous spread is a particularly important component of the region’s bovine tuberculosis disease system.

Relative Contribution of Each Component of the French Ante-Mortem Surveillance System for Bovine Tuberculosis in Its Overall Sensitivity

The aim of this study was to assess the contribution to the sensitivity of the French ante-mortem surveillance system for bovine tuberculosis in cattle of each of the system’s components (periodic screening, epidemiological investigations, and screening exchanged animals), on a local scale defined by administrative areas. These components were individually assessed in previous studies by scenario tree modeling. We used scenario tree modeling at the herd level and combined the results to evaluate the overall sensitivity of the ante-mortem surveillance system. The probability to detect at least one infected herd was consistent with the location of the outbreaks detected in 2016. In areas with a high apparent incidence, the probability of an infected herd to be detected was satisfactory (for an infected herd there was a 100% probability to be detected over a two-year period). Periodic screening was the most important component for the overall sensitivity in infected areas. In other areas, where periodic screening had stopped, tracing-on epidemiological investigation was the most sensitive component of the system. Screening exchanged animals had a negligible part in the overall sensitivity of the surveillance system.

Does Mycobacterium tuberculosis var. bovis Survival in the Environment Confound Bovine Tuberculosis Control and Eradication? A Literature Review

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one of the globe's most common, multihost zoonoses and results in substantial socioeconomic costs for governments, farming industries, and tax payers. Despite decades of surveillance and research, surprisingly, little is known about the exact mechanisms of transmission. In particular, as a facultative intracellular pathogen, to what extent does survival of the causative agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis var. bovis (M. bovis), in the environment constitute an epidemiological risk for livestock and wildlife? Due largely to the classical pathology of cattle cases, the received wisdom was that bTB was spread by direct inhalation and exchange of bioaerosols containing droplets laden with bacteria. Other members of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) exhibit differing host ranges, an apparent capacity to persist in environmental fomites, and they favour a range of different transmission routes. It is possible, therefore, that infection from environmental sources of M. bovis could be a disease transmission risk. Recent evidence from GPS-collared cattle and badgers in Britain and Ireland suggests that direct transmission by infectious droplets or aerosols may not be the main mechanism for interspecies transmission, raising the possibility of indirect transmission involving a contaminated, shared environment. The possibility that classical pulmonary TB can be simulated and recapitulated in laboratory animal models by ingestion of contaminated feed is a further intriguing indication of potential environmental risk. Livestock and wildlife are known to shed M. bovis onto pasture, soil, feedstuffs, water, and other fomites; field and laboratory studies have indicated that persistence is possible, but variable, under differing environmental conditions. Given the potential infection risk, it is timely to review the available evidence, experimental approaches, and methodologies that could be deployed to address this potential blind spot and control point. Although we focus on evidence from Western Europe, the concepts are widely applicable to other multihost bTB episystems.

Resilience of French cattle farms to bovine tuberculosis detection between 2004 and 2017

France was recognized officially bovine tuberculosis (bTB) free by the European Union in 2001, however an increase of bTB detections has been reported since 2004. Even though the recommended method for bTB control is whole herd depopulation, test-and-cull protocols have been authorized in pilot areas since 2008 and in the rest of France since 2014. BTB impact at the state level and on trade has been thoroughly studied, however the consequences of these control measures at a farm level are poorly understood. We used bovine movement data from the French cattle tracing system and surveillance data from the National reference laboratory to compare time to closure between case farms with a bTB detection and matched control farms between 2004 and 2017 in France. For this purpose, we considered two modes of closure: (i) long-lasting (more than 12 months) depopulation and (ii) change of farm owner. Using a competing risk analysis, we showed that bTB detection significantly increased the odds of long-lasting depopulation (particularly during the first three months after bTB detection) indicating that farmers renounced restocking after the depopulation, whereas it decreased the odds of a change of owner. Larger farms, characterized by an increased average weekly number of cattle, had a lesser risk of long-lasting depopulation. Farms owned by a natural person had an increased risk of closure. We also showed that the possibility to control bTB by test-and-cull protocol decreased the long-lasting depopulation risk. Overall, bTB control measures contribute to reshaping the agricultural landscape by increasing the probability of closure for small vulnerable farms and by favoring large, professionalized and specialized agricultural holdings. Our results also suggest an improvement in control management with the introduction of test-and-cull protocols instead of systematic whole herd depopulation.

Risk-based strategies for surveillance of tuberculosis infection in cattle for low-risk areas in England and Scotland

Disease surveillance can be made more effective by either improving disease detection, providing cost savings, or doing both. Currently, cattle herds in low-risk areas (LRAs) for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in England are tested once every 4 years. In Scotland, the default herd testing frequency is also 4 years, but a risk-based system exempts some herds from testing altogether. To extend this approach to other areas, a bespoke understanding of at-risk herds and how risk-based surveillance can affect bTB detection is required. Here, we use a generalized linear mixed model to inform a Bayesian probabilistic model of freedom from infection and explore risk-based surveillance strategies in LRAs and Scotland. Our analyses show that in both areas the primary herd-level risk factors for bTB infection are the size of the herd and purchasing cattle from high-risk areas of Great Britain and/or Ireland. A risk-based approach can improve the current surveillance system by both increasing detection (9% and 7% fewer latent infections), and reducing testing burden (6% and 26% fewer animal tests) in LRAs and Scotland, respectively. Testing at-risk herds more frequently can also improve the level of detection by identifying more infected cases and reducing the hidden burden of the disease, and reduce surveillance effort by exempting low-risk herds from testing.

Bovine tuberculosis in Northern Ireland: quantification of the population disease-level effect from cattle leaving herds detected as a source of infection

Determination of the proportion of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns attributed to a herd purchasing infected animals has not been previously quantified using data from the Animal and Public Health Information System (APHIS) database in Northern Ireland. We used a case-control study design to account for the infection process occurring in the disclosing bTB breakdown herds. Cases (N = 6926) were cattle moving to a future confirmed bTB breakdown where they would disclose as a confirmed bTB reactor or a Lesion at Routine Slaughter (LRS). Controls (N = 303 499) were cattle moving to a future confirmed bTB breakdown where they did not become a bTB reactor or LRS. Our study showed that the cattle leaving herds which disclosed bTB within 450 days had an increased odds of becoming a confirmed bTB reactor or LRS compared with the cattle which left herds that remained free for 450 days (odds ratio (OR) = 2·09: 95% CI 1·96-2·22). Of the 12 060 confirmed bTB breakdowns included in our study (2007-2015 inclusive), 31% (95% CI 29·8-31·5) contained a confirmed bTB reactor(s) or LRS(s) at the disclosing test which entered the herd within the previous 450 days. After controlling for the infection process occurring in the disclosing bTB breakdown herd, our study showed that 6·4% (95% CI 5·9-6·8) of bTB breakdowns in Northern Ireland were directly attributable to the movement of infected animals.

Assessing the effects of the first 2 years of industry-led badger culling in England on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in 2013-2015

Culling badgers to control the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) between this wildlife reservoir and cattle has been widely debated. Industry‐led culling began in Somerset and Gloucestershire between August and November 2013 to reduce local badger populations. Industry‐led culling is not designed to be a randomized and controlled trial of the impact of culling on cattle incidence. Nevertheless, it is important to monitor the effects of the culling and, taking the study limitations into account, perform a cautious evaluation of the impacts. A standardized method for selecting areas matched to culling areas in factors found to affect cattle TB risk has been developed to evaluate the impact of badger culling on cattle TB incidence. The association between cattle TB incidence and badger culling in the first 2 years has been assessed. Descriptive analyses without controlling for confounding showed no association between culling and TB incidence for Somerset, or for either of the buffer areas for the first 2 years since culling began. A weak association was observed in Gloucestershire for Year 1 only. Multivariable analysis adjusting for confounding factors showed that reductions in TB incidence were associated with culling in the first 2 years in both the Somerset and Gloucestershire intervention areas when compared to areas with no culling (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.79, 95% CI: 0.72–0.87, p < .001 and IRR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.34–0.51, p < .001, respectively). An increase in incidence was associated with culling in the 2‐km buffer surrounding the Somerset intervention area (IRR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.09–1.75, p = .008), but not in Gloucestershire (IRR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.77–1.07, p = .243). As only 2 intervention areas with 2 years of data are available for analysis, and the biological cause–effect relationship behind the statistical associations is difficult to determine, it would be unwise to use these findings to develop generalizable inferences about the effectiveness of the policy at present.

A review of risk factors for bovine tuberculosis infection in cattle in the UK and Ireland

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important disease of cattle caused by infection withMycobacterium bovis, a pathogen that may be extremely difficult to eradicate in the presence of a true wildlife reservoir. Our objective was to identify and review relevant literature and provide a succinct summary of current knowledge of risk factors for transmission of infection of cattle. Search strings were developed to identify publications from electronic databases to February 2015. Abstracts of 4255 papers identified were reviewed by three reviewers to determine whether the entire article was likely to contain relevant information. Risk factors could be broadly grouped as follows: animal (including nutrition and genetics), herd (including bTB and testing history), environment, wildlife and social factors. Many risk factors are inter-related and study designs often do not enable differentiation between cause and consequence of infection. Despite differences in study design and location, some risk factors are consistently identified, e.g. herd size, bTB history, presence of infected wildlife, whereas the evidence for others is less consistent and coherent, e.g. nutrition, local cattle movements. We have identified knowledge gaps where further research may result in an improved understanding of bTB transmission dynamics. The application of targeted, multifactorial disease control regimens that address a range of risk factors simultaneously is likely to be a key to effective, evidence-informed control strategies.

Should they stay, or should they go? Relative future risk of bovine tuberculosis for interferon-gamma test-positive cattle left on farms

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is a serious infectious disease that remains an ongoing concern for cattle farming worldwide. Tuberculin skin-tests are often used to identify infected animals (reactors) during test-and-cull programs, however, due to relatively poor sensitivity, additional tests can be implemented in parallel. For example, in Northern Ireland interferon-gamma (IFN-g) testing is used in high-risk herds. However, skin-test negative animals which are positive to the IFN-g test are not required by law to be slaughtered – therefore the final choice for these animals’ fate is left with the owner. During this study we investigated whether these animals represented a greater risk of becoming a skin reactor, relative to IFN-g test negative animals from the same herds. Our study population included 1107 IFN-g positive animals from 239 herds. A Cox-proportional hazard model indicated that animals which tested IFN-g positive were 2.31 times (95% CI: 1.92-2.79; P < 0.001) more likely to become a reactor compared with IFN-g negative animals. Animals from dairy herds, and from herds in the south-east, were of higher risk than animals from beef herds and other regions, respectively. Our findings suggest that IFN-g positive animals represent a higher risk of failing a skin-test in the future, indicating the value of IFN-g testing for identifying early-stage infected animals. These IFN-g positive animals are not under any disease restriction, and may move freely (trade), which may put recipient herds at increased risk. Our findings provide important evidence for stakeholders engaged in bTB eradication programs.

Risk factors for visible lesions or positive laboratory tests in bovine tuberculosis reactor cattle in Northern Ireland

An observational case-control study was conducted to investigate risk factors for confirmed bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infection in cattle reacting positively to the single intradermal comparative cervical test (SICCT) in Northern Ireland in the years 1998, 2002 and 2006. Macroscopic lesions were detected at slaughter (positive visible lesion (VL) status) in 43.0% of reactor cattle, whilst 45.3% of those sampled were confirmed as bTB positive due to the presence of lesions or positive histopathology/mycobacterial culture (positive bTB status). In 97.5% of the reactors, the VL status and bTB status were either both negative or both positive. Generalized linear mixed model analyses were conducted on data of 24,923 reactor cattle with the variables herd identifier, local veterinary office (DVO) and abattoir being used as random effects within all the models generated at univariable and multivariable level. The other variables within the dataset were used as fixed effects. Significant risk factors associated with VL status and bTB status at multivariable level (p<0.05) included age at death, breed, sex, test year, net increase in skin thickness at bovine tuberculin injection site, epidemiological status of skin test, total number of reactors at the disclosure test, mean herd size and prior response to the skin test. These risk factors are likely related to the time since infection, the strength of the challenge of infection and the susceptibility of the animal. These findings are important as the detection of visible lesions and the confirmation of bTB are an integral part of the overall bTB control programme in Northern Ireland and the veterinary meat inspection and hygiene programme. The visible lesion status and bTB status of an animal can affect the way in which bTB breakdowns are managed, since failure to detect visible lesions and recovery of Mycobacterium bovis can lead to a less stringent follow-up after other risk factors have been taken into account.

Stakeholder opinions on the practicality of management interventions to control bovine tuberculosis

Livestock disease control strategies are usually determined at national and international levels, yet their successful implementation is determined by stakeholders operating at local scales. Such stakeholders may also have detailed knowledge that would contribute to the development of disease control options suited to the socio-cultural and environmental conditions where management is undertaken. The aim of this study was to evaluate stakeholders' opinions of a list of potential bovine tuberculosis (TB) management interventions for South Central Spain. This area has high TB prevalence in wildlife and livestock, so veterinarians, livestock farmers and hunters are all key stakeholders in TB management. A literature review identified possible management activities. The effectiveness of each intervention was ranked by local experts, and practicality was ranked by hunters, cattle farmers and veterinarians, using a best-worst scaling exercise as part of a questionnaire. The most effective intervention, the banning of supplemental feeding of game species, was not considered practical by stakeholders. The most effective and practical interventions were the separation of wildlife and livestock access to waterholes, testing cattle every 3 months on farms with a recent positive TB case and removing gut-piles from the land after hunting events. Although all three of these options were well supported, each stakeholder group supported different approaches more strongly, suggesting that it might be effective to promote different disease management contributions in different stakeholder communities. This integrated approach contributes to the identification of the optimum combination of management tools that can be delivered effectively.

From network analysis to risk analysis--An approach to risk-based surveillance for bovine tuberculosis in Minnesota, US

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) was first detected in 2005 in cattle in northwestern Minnesota (MN) through slaughter surveillance. By the end of 2008, 12 cattle herds were infected with bTB, and the main cause for infection was determined to be the movement of infected animals between herds. Bovine tuberculosis was contained in a smaller area in northwestern Minnesota classified as modified accredited (MA), corresponding to a prevalence inferior to 0.1% in cattle. From January 2008 to 2011, all cattle movements within the bTB MA were recorded electronically. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize cattle movements within this region and identify cattle herds with higher risk of bTB introduction based on network parameters and known risk factors from the published literature. During the period that data was collected, 57,460 cattle were moved in 3762 movements corresponding to permits issued to 682 premises, mostly representing private farms, sale yards, slaughter facilities and county or state fairs. Although sale yards represented less than 2% of the premises (nodes), 60% of the movements were to or from a sale yard. The network showed an overall density of 0.4%, a clustering coefficient of 14.6% and a betweenness centralization index of 12.7%, reflecting the low connectivity of this cattle network. The degree distribution showed that 20% of nodes performed 90% of the movements. Farms were ranked based on the total risk score and divided into high, medium, and low risk groups based on the score and its variability. The higher risk group included 14% (n=50) of the farms, corresponding to 80% of the cumulative risk for the farms in the bTB area. This analysis provides a baseline description about the contact structure of cattle movements in an area previously infected with bTB and develops a framework for a targeted surveillance approach for bTB to support future surveillance decisions.

Not all cows are epidemiologically equal: quantifying the risks of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) transmission through cattle movements

Many economically important cattle diseases spread between herds through livestock movements. Traditionally, most transmission models have assumed that all purchased cattle carry the same risk of generating outbreaks in the destination herd. Using data on bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in Scotland as a case example, this study provides empirical and theoretical evidence that the risk of disease transmission varies substantially based on the animal and herd demographic characteristics at the time of purchase. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that purchasing pregnant heifers and open cows sold with a calf at foot were associated with an increased risk of beef herds being seropositive for BVDV. Based on the results from a dynamic within-herd simulation model, these findings may be partly explained by the age-related probability of animals being persistently infected with BVDV as well as the herd demographic structure at the time of animal introductions. There was also evidence that an epidemiologically important network statistic, "betweenness centrality" (a measure frequently associated with the potential for herds to acquire and transmit disease), was significantly higher for herds that supplied these particular types of replacement beef cattle. The trends for dairy herds were not as clear, although there was some evidence that open heifers and open lactating cows were associated with an increased risk of BVDV. Overall, these findings have important implications for developing simulation models that more accurately reflect the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases.

Modeling tuberculosis dynamics, detection and control in cattle herds

Epidemiological models are key tools for designing and evaluating detection and control strategies against animal infectious diseases. In France, after decades of decrease of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) incidence, the disease keeps circulating. Increasing prevalence levels are observed in several areas, where the detection and control strategy could be adapted. The objective of this work was to design and calibrate a model of the within-herd transmission of bTB. The proposed model is a stochastic model operating in discrete-time. Three health states were distinguished: susceptible, latent and infected. Dairy and beef herd dynamics and bTB detection and control programs were explicitly represented. Approximate Bayesian computation was used to estimate three model parameters from field data: the transmission parameter when animals are inside (β_inside) and outside (β_outside) buildings, and the duration of the latent phase. An independent dataset was used for model validation. The estimated median was 0.43 [0.16–0.84] month⁻¹ for β_inside and 0.08 [0.01–0.32] month⁻¹ for β_outside. The median duration of the latent period was estimated 3.5 [2]–[8] months. The sensitivity analysis showed only minor influences of fixed parameter values on these posterior estimates. Validation based on an independent dataset showed that in more than 80% of herds, the observed proportion of animals with detected lesions was between the 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles of the simulated distribution. In the absence of control program and once bTB has become enzootic within a herd, the median effective reproductive ratio was estimated to be 2.2 in beef herds and 1.7 in dairy herds. These low estimates are consistent with field observations of a low prevalence level in French bTB-infected herds.

Shared risk factors for multiple livestock diseases: a case study of bovine tuberculosis and brucellosis

Livestock diseases can result in reduced farm productivity. The bacterial diseases tuberculosis (TB) and brucellosis may share some transmission characteristics which, if managed in common, would result in more cost-effective management. Here, we identify risk factors shared between these diseases using a case-control approach and information theoretic modelling. One-hundred cattle farmers in Atlantic Spain were interviewed about farm characteristics and management practices. The risk factor shared between both diseases was intra- and inter-herd contact between cattle. Disease-specific risk factors were the presence of wildlife for TB, and cattle movement between farms for brucellosis. An integrated approach to disease management needs to consider cattle movement and farm biosecurity, reinforced by an education campaign to increase farmer awareness. This would be likely to bring benefits in reducing both diseases and improve the efficiency of any interventions.

Spatial-temporal Variations of Bovine Tuberculosis Incidence in France between 1965 and 2000

We analysed the spatiotemporal variations of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) incidence between 1965 and 2000 in France at the department level (95 areas). Using a Bayesian space-time model, we studied the association between the evolution of bTB incidence and changes of cattle population structure and of herd management practices. Several spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were compared, and the deviance information criterion was used to select the best of them. Southern France remained a high-risk area over the analysed period, whereas central and western regions were low-risk areas. Besides the frequency of tuberculin skin testing (fixed according to bTB incidence in the preceding years), four factors were associated with an increased risk of bTB: the average herd density and size, the percentage of dairy cows in the cattle population, and the percentage of permanent grassland in cultivated surfaces area. These four factors are linked to the progressive professionalization and specialization of cattle farming, with the disappearance of family farms and of the intensification of breeding systems (especially in dairy farms after the application of the milk quota system in the 1980s). Both trends probably played a significant role in reducing the risk of bTB in France between 1965 and 2000, besides mandatory detection and control procedures.

Risk factors for bovine tuberculosis in low incidence regions related to the movements of cattle

Background

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains difficult to eradicate from low incidence regions partly due to the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of routine intradermal tuberculin testing. Herds with unconfirmed reactors that are incorrectly classified as bTB-negative may be at risk of spreading disease, while those that are incorrectly classified as bTB-positive may be subject to costly disease eradication measures. This analysis used data from Scotland in the period leading to Officially Tuberculosis Free recognition (1) to investigate the risks associated with the movements of cattle from herds with different bTB risk classifications and (2) to identify herd demographic characteristics that may aid in the interpretation of tuberculin testing results.

Results

From 2002 to 2009, for every herd with confirmed bTB positive cattle identified through routine herd testing, there was an average of 2.8 herds with at least one unconfirmed positive reactor and 18.9 herds with unconfirmed inconclusive reactors. Approximately 75% of confirmed bTB positive herds were detected through cattle with no known movements outside Scotland. At the animal level, cattle that were purchased from Scottish herds with unconfirmed positive reactors and a recent history importing cattle from endemic bTB regions were significantly more likely to react positively on routine intradermal tuberculin tests, while cattle purchased from Scottish herds with unconfirmed inconclusive reactors were significantly more likely to react inconclusively. Case-case comparisons revealed few demographic differences between herds with confirmed positive, unconfirmed positive, and unconfirmed inconclusive reactors, which highlights the difficulty in determining the true disease status of herds with unconfirmed tuberculin reactors. Overall, the risk of identifying reactors through routine surveillance decreased significantly over time, which may be partly attributable to changes in movement testing regulations and the volume of cattle imported from endemic regions.

Conclusions

Although the most likely source of bTB infections in Scotland was cattle previously imported from endemic regions, we found indirect evidence of transmission within Scottish cattle farms and cannot rule out the possibility of low level transmission between farms. Further investigation is needed to determine whether targeting herds with unconfirmed reactors and a history of importing cattle from high risk regions would benefit control efforts.

Factors associated with herd restriction and de-restriction with bovine tuberculosis in British cattle herds

The incidence of herd breakdown (HBD) with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has continued to increase year on year since the 1980s in Great Britain. The management of bTB constitutes a major challenge for government and the cattle industry. Whilst various factors have been implicated with the risk of HBD with bTB, factors involved in recovery are less well described. In this paper, we used a multilevel multistate model to identify the factors affecting the probability of a herd being placed under restriction following a bTB outbreak and the factors involved in those restrictions being lifted. By modelling both transitions within the same model, we control for unobserved herd-specific characteristics, and investigate the frequency of change between the restricted and derestricted states. There were two patterns of herd breakdown: transient (characterised by fast cycling between restricted and derestricted states) and continuous (characterised by rare changes between the two states). The risk of a herd being placed under restriction was dominated by predictors related to cattle movements. The probability of derestriction increased with more regular testing. Some risks affected both transitions, namely loge mean size of neighbouring herds in the test-year, whether the herd bred its own replacements and the foot and mouth disease indicator of whether a bTB test was done between February 2002 and January 2003, possibly because the underlying true state of the herd, as infected or not, meant that these factors increased or reduced the risk of HBD. These results highlight that management of bTB is dependent on the true underlying herd status of bTB infection and that some confusion of the benefits or otherwise of some management practices, e.g. using home bred replacements can be explained by this underlying status.

Genetic predisposition to pass the standard SICCT test for bovine tuberculosis in British cattle

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) imposes an important financial burden on the British cattle industry, yet despite intense efforts to control its spread, incidence is currently rising. Surveillance for bTB is based on a skin test that measures an immunological response to tuberculin. Cattle that fail the test are classified as "reactors" and slaughtered. Recent studies have identified genetic markers associated with the reaction of cattle to the tuberculin test. At marker INRA111 a relatively common '22' genotype occurs significantly more frequently in non-reactor cattle. Here we test the possibility that the putative protective '22' genotype does not confer resistance but instead causes cattle that carry it to react less strongly to the prescribed test, and hence avoid slaughter, potentially even though they are infected. We show that, after controlling for age and breed, '22' cattle react less strongly to the immunological challenge and may therefore be less likely to be classified as a reactor. These results highlight the potential discrepancy between infection and test status and imply that the effectiveness of the test-and-slaughter policy may be being compromised by selection for cattle that are genetically predisposed to react less strongly to tuberculin.

Bioexclusion of diseases from dairy and beef farms: risks of introducing infectious agents and risk reduction strategies

Infectious disease represents a major threat to the productivity and welfare of cattle herds throughout the world. The introduction of infectious agents into dairy and beef farms may be through direct transmission (purchased cattle, reintroduced resident cattle and contact with contiguous cattle) or indirect transmission (fomites, visitors, other species, and biological materials) and this article reviews the evidence supporting these transmission routes. In the absence of eradication programmes for many endemic infectious diseases, bioexclusion is the key management process for risk reduction. Various ameliorative bioexclusion strategies have been recommended and the evidence supporting these protocols is considered.

Eradication of bovine tuberculosis at a herd-level in Madrid, Spain: study of within-herd transmission dynamics over a 12 year period

Background

Eradication of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) through the application of test-and-cull programs is a declared goal of developed countries in which the disease is still endemic. Here, longitudinal data from more than 1,700 cattle herds tested during a 12 year-period in the eradication program in the region of Madrid, Spain, were analyzed to quantify the within-herd transmission coefficient (β) depending on the herd-type (beef/dairy/bullfighting). In addition, the probability to recover the officially bTB free (OTF) status in infected herds depending on the type of herd and the diagnostic strategy implemented was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models.

Results

Overall, dairy herds showed higher β (median 4.7) than beef or bullfighting herds (2.3 and 2.2 respectively). Introduction of interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) as an ancillary test produced an apparent increase in the β coefficient regardless of production type, likely due to an increase in diagnostic sensitivity. Time to recover OTF status was also significantly lower in dairy herds, and length of bTB episodes was significantly reduced when the IFN-γ was implemented to manage the outbreak.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that bTB spreads more rapidly in dairy herds compared to other herd types, a likely cause being management and demographic-related factors. However, outbreaks in dairy herds can be controlled more rapidly than in typically extensive herd types. Finally, IFN-γ proved its usefulness to rapidly eradicate bTB at a herd-level.

Herd-level risk factors for bovine tuberculosis: a literature review

Bovine tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is one of the most challenging endemic diseases currently facing government, the veterinary profession, and the farming industry in the United Kingdom and Ireland and in several other countries. The disease has a notoriously complex epidemiology; the scientific evidence supports both cattle-cattle and wildlife-cattle transmission routes. To produce more effective ways of reducing such transmission, it is important to understand those risk factors which influence the presence or absence of bovine TB in cattle herds. Here we review the literature on herd-level risk factor studies. Whilst risk factors operate at different scales and may vary across regions, epidemiological studies have identified a number of risk factors associated with bovine TB herd breakdowns, including the purchase of cattle, the occurrence of bovine TB in contiguous herds, and/or the surrounding area as well as herd size. Other factors identified in some studies include farm and herd management practices, such as, the spreading of slurry, the use of certain housing types, farms having multiple premises, and the use of silage clamps. In general, the most consistently identified risk factors are biologically plausible and consistent with known transmission routes involving cattle-cattle and wildlife-cattle pathways.

Risk factors for bovine Tuberculosis at the national level in Great Britain

Background

The continuing expansion of high incidence areas of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain (GB) raises a number of questions concerning the determinants of infection at the herd level that are driving spread of the disease. Here, we develop risk factor models to quantify the importance of herd sizes, cattle imports from Ireland, history of bTB, badgers and cattle restocking in determining bTB incidence. We compare the significance of these different risk factors in high and low incidence areas (as determined by parish testing intervals).

Results

Large herds and fattening herds are more likely to breakdown in all areas. In areas with lower perceived risk (longer testing intervals), the risk of breaking down is largely determined by the number of animals that a herd buys in from high incidence areas. In contrast, in higher perceived risk areas (shorter testing intervals), the risk of breakdown is defined by the history of disease and the probability of badger occurrence. Despite differences in the management of bTB across different countries of GB (England, Wales and Scotland), we found no significant differences in bTB risk at the national level after these other factors had been taken into account.

Conclusions

This paper demonstrates that different types of farm are at risk of breakdown and that the most important risk factors vary according to bTB incidence in an area. The results suggest that significant gains in bTB control could be made by targeting herds in low incidence areas that import the greatest number of cattle from high incidence areas.

Bovine tuberculosis surveillance alternatives in Belgium

Belgium obtained the bovine tuberculosis (bTB) officially free status in 2003 (EC Decision 2003/467/EC). This study was carried out to evaluate the components of the current bTB surveillance program in Belgium and to determine the sensitivity of this program. Secondly, alternatives to optimize the bTB surveillance in accordance with European legislation (Council Directive 64/432/EEC) were evaluated. Separate scenario trees were designed for each active surveillance component of the bTB surveillance program. Data from 2005 to 2009 regarding cattle population, movement and surveillance were collected to feed the stochastic scenario tree simulation model. A total of 7,403,826 cattle movement history records were obtained for the 2,678,020 cattle from 36,059 cattle herds still active in 2009. The current surveillance program sensitivity as well as the impact of alternative surveillance protocols was simulated in a stochastic model using 10,000 iterations per simulation. The median (50% percentile) of the component sensitivities across 10,000 iterations was 0.83, 0.85, 0.99, 0.99, respectively, for (i) testing the cattle only during the winter screening, (ii) testing only imported cattle, (iii) testing only purchased cattle and (iv) testing only all slaughtered cattle. The sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input parameter explaining the variability around the output came from the uncertainty distribution around the sensitivity of the diagnostic tests used within the bTB surveillance. Providing all animals are inspected and post mortem inspection is highly sensitive, slaughterhouse surveillance was the most effective surveillance component. If these conditions were not met, the uncertainty around the mean sensitivity of this component was important. Using an antibody ELISA at purchase and an interferon gamma test during winter screening and at import would increase greatly the sensitivity and the confidence level of Belgium's freedom from bTB infection status.

An ecological and comparative perspective on the control of bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland

Disease ecology involves a systematic approach to understanding the interactions and evolution of host-pathogen systems at the population level, and is essential for developing a comprehensive understanding of the reasons for disease persistence and the most likely means of control. This systems or ecological approach is being increasingly recognised as a progressive method in disease control and is exploited in diverse fields ranging from obesity management in humans to the prevention of infectious disease in animal populations. In this review we discuss bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain (GB) within a disease ecology context, and suggest how a comparative ecological perspective helps to reconcile apparent conflicts with the evidence on the effectiveness of badger culling to assist in the control of bTB in GB and the Republic of Ireland (ROI). Our examination shows that failure of past measures to control bTB and the disparity in outcomes of badger culling experiments are the result of a complex relationship amongst the agent, host and environment, i.e. the episystem, of bTB. Here, we stress the role of distinctive bTB episystems and badger culling trial design in the ambiguity and resulting controversy associated with badger culling in GB and ROI. We argue this episystem perspective on bTB control measures in cattle and badger populations provides a useful and informative perspective on the design and implementation of future bTB management in GB, particularly at a time when both scientific and lay communities are concerned about the ongoing epidemic, the cost of current control measures and the execution of future control procedures.

Local cattle and badger populations affect the risk of confirmed tuberculosis in British cattle herds

Background

The control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a priority on the public health agenda in Great Britain, after launching in 1998 the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) to evaluate the effectiveness of badger (Meles meles) culling as a control strategy. Our study complements previous analyses of the RBCT data (focusing on treatment effects) by presenting analyses of herd-level risks factors associated with the probability of a confirmed bTB breakdown in herds within each treatment: repeated widespread proactive culling, localized reactive culling and no culling (survey-only).

Methodology/Principal Findings

New cases of bTB breakdowns were monitored inside the RBCT areas from the end of the first proactive badger cull to one year after the last proactive cull. The risk of a herd bTB breakdown was modeled using logistic regression and proportional hazard models adjusting for local farm-level risk factors. Inside survey-only and reactive areas, increased numbers of active badger setts and cattle herds within 1500 m of a farm were associated with an increased bTB risk. Inside proactive areas, the number of M. bovis positive badgers initially culled within 1500 m of a farm was the strongest predictor of the risk of a confirmed bTB breakdown.

Conclusions/Significance

The use of herd-based models provide insights into how local cattle and badger populations affect the bTB breakdown risks of individual cattle herds in the absence of and in the presence of badger culling. These measures of local bTB risks could be integrated into a risk-based herd testing programme to improve the targeting of interventions aimed at reducing the risks of bTB transmission.

Candidate genes versus genome-wide associations: which are better for detecting genetic susceptibility to infectious disease?

Technological developments allow increasing numbers of markers to be deployed in case-control studies searching for genetic factors that influence disease susceptibility. However, with vast numbers of markers, true 'hits' may become lost in a sea of false positives. This problem may be particularly acute for infectious diseases, where the control group may contain unexposed individuals with susceptible genotypes. To explore this effect, we used a series of stochastic simulations to model a scenario based loosely on bovine tuberculosis. We find that a candidate gene approach tends to have greater statistical power than studies that use large numbers of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genome-wide association tests, almost regardless of the number of SNPs deployed. Both approaches struggle to detect genetic effects when these are either weak or if an appreciable proportion of individuals are unexposed to the disease when modest sample sizes (250 each of cases and controls) are used, but these issues are largely mitigated if sample sizes can be increased to 2000 or more of each class. We conclude that the power of any genotype-phenotype association test will be improved if the sampling strategy takes account of exposure heterogeneity, though this is not necessarily easy to do.