Epidemiological investigation of bovine tuberculosis outbreaks in Uruguay (2011-2013)

Once bitten twice shy: Risk factors associated with bovine tuberculosis recurrence in Castilla y Leon, Spain

Persistence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle herd remains a major challenge in disease elimination due to the ineffectual removal of all infected animals in a bTB breakdown. Characterization of herds with a higher probability of experiencing further bTB breakdowns can help to implement specific risk-based policies for disease control and eradication. Here, our aim was to identify herd- and breakdown-level risk factors in bTB infected herds in Castilla y Leon, Spain, associated with a decreased time to recurrence and an increased risk of recurrence using a mixed effects Cox proportional hazards model and a multivariable logistic regression model, respectively. Results revealed that location (province), herd size and number of incoming animals/contacts were good predictors of a decreased time to bTB recurrence and an increased risk of becoming a recurrent herd. Additionally, the duration of the previous outbreak and the number of IFN-γ herd-tests applied in it were associated with increased odds of (an early) recurrence. Risk factors identified here can be used for early identification of herds in which bTB eradication may be more challenging and that should thus be subjected to increased control efforts. The characterization of high-risk herds may help to minimize the risk of reinfection and emphasize early detection and removal of bTB positive animals in the herd.

Region-wise analysis of beef cow movements in Japan

Animal movement is an important factor in the transmission of animal infectious diseases. A better understanding of movement patterns is therefore necessary for developing effective control measures against disease spread. In Japan, a cattle tracing system was established in 2003, following a bovine spongiform encephalopathy epidemic, and the information on all cattle movements has been stored in a national database maintained by the National Livestock Breeding Center. Using these data, we previously analyzed the movement of dairy cows, concluding that heterogeneities in cattle movement are associated with regional and seasonal factors. In the present study, we aimed to identify specific factors affecting the regional and seasonal movement patterns of beef cows in Japan. From April 2012 to March 2017, 797,553 farm-to-farm movement events were recorded. We analyzed movements by month and by cattle age and looked at the frequency of movement within and between seven regions spanning the national territory. Our results show that calf movement peaked at 9-10 months old; these movements were considered to be via the market and were frequent within and between regions. For inter-regional movements, Kyushu region was the top producer of calves for calf trading markets throughout Japan. With regard to intra-regional movements, round-trip movements for summer grazing were observed in May and October for cattle of various ages in the northern regions, especially Hokkaido and Tohoku. Moreover, the movements of Japanese Shorthorn breeds in Tohoku region exhibited consistent annual peaks in May and October/November, in accordance with their seasonal breeding practice. In the areas with high relative densities of dairy cows, such as Hokkaido, the shipping of newborn beef calves produced via embryo transfer to dairy cows was also observed. Overall, understanding the patterns of beef cow movement will help develop effective disease surveillance measures, such as pre-movement inspections focused on specific regions and types of movement.

Bovine tuberculosis control in Fiji: Retrospective study findings for 2015 to 2020

Control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a priority for animal health, biosecurity, and human health authorities in Fiji as evident from the long-term funding of the Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis Eradication and Control program (BTEC) and notable improvements to the program described in this paper. To evaluate the performance of the Fiji BTEC program from 2015 to 2020, all available bTB data for cattle were analyzed. Data sources included BTEC bTB testing records, abattoir records and laboratory records. We integrated all information to quantify the bTB tests applied, bTB positive farms and animals, meat inspection and laboratory findings. Test coverage was highest among dairy cattle in Central Division (~73%), where bTB was highly prevalent with 7.8% of dairy cattle and 61.7% of dairy farms found to be positive between 2015 and 2020. There was no visible downward trend in the apparent prevalence of bTB over the 6-year period. During 2019 and 2020, only 21.3% (51/239) of the tested dairy farms maintained their clear status, another 8.4% (20/239) reverted to infected status after 1 year or more of being bTB clear, and most farms remained infected during these 2 years. Factors observed to be contributing to this situation were persistent infections, related in part to the significant number of untested animals, uncontrolled animal movements, and larger farm size. Similar to other developing countries, bTB remains a serious concern and further strengthening of the program targeting the main contributors to bTB persistence, along with maintenance of a comprehensive reporting and traceability system, industry awareness and government support are needed. Control of bTB in Fiji is a long-term objective that must have multiple stakeholder engagement and regular review to measure success.

Genomic and temporal analyses of Mycobacterium bovis in southern Brazil

Mycobacterium bovis is a causal agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), one of the most important diseases currently facing the cattle industry worldwide. Tracing the source of M. bovis infections of livestock is an important tool for understanding the epidemiology of bTB and defining control/eradication strategies. In this study, whole genome sequencing (WGS) of 74 M. bovis isolates sourced from naturally infected cattle in the State of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), southern Brazil, was used to evaluate the population structure of M. bovis in the region, identify potential transmission events and date the introduction of clonal complex (CC) European 2 (Eu2). In silico spoligotyping identified 11 distinct patterns including four new profiles and two CCs, European 1 (Eu1) and Eu2. The analyses revealed a high level of genetic diversity in the majority of herds and identified putative transmission clusters that suggested that within- and between-herd transmission is occurring in RS. In addition, a comparison with other published M. bovis isolates from Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay demonstrated some evidence for a possible cross-border transmission of CC Eu1 into RS from Uruguay or Argentina. An estimated date for the introduction of CC Eu2 into RS in the middle of the 19th century correlated with the historical introduction of cattle into RS to improve existing local breeds. These findings contribute to the understanding of the population structure of M. bovis in southern Brazil and highlight the potential of WGS in surveillance and helping to identify bTB transmission.

Bovine tuberculosis prevalence and risk factors in selected districts of Bangladesh

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in selected districts of Bangladesh to estimate the prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), and to identify the risk factors for bTB. We included 1865 farmed cattle from 79 herds randomly selected from five districts. Herd and animal level data were collected using semi-structured interviews with cattle herd owners. The single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT) was used to estimate the prevalence of bTB. The risk factors were identified using mixed-effect multiple logistic regression analyses. The overall herd and animal level prevalences of bTB were estimated to be 45.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 34.3–57.2%) and 11.3 (95% CI = 9.9–12.8%), respectively, using the OIE recommended >4 mm cut-off. The true animal level prevalence of bTB was estimated to be 11.8 (95% Credible Interval = 2.1–20.3%). At the herd level, farm size, bTB history of the farm and type of husbandry were significantly associated with bTB status in univariable analysis. Similarly, age group, sex, pregnancy status and parity were significantly associated with bTB at cattle level. However, in multivariable analysis only herd size at the herd level and age group and pregnancy status at the cattle level were significant. Compared to a herd size of 1–10, the odds of bTB were 22.8 (95% CI: 5.2–100.9) and 45.6 times (95% CI: 5.0–417.7) greater in herd sizes of >20–50 and >50, respectively. The odds of bTB were 2.2 (95% CI: 1.0–4.5) and 2.5 times (95% CI: 1.1–5.4) higher in cattle aged >3–6 years and > 6 years, compared to cattle aged ≤1 year. Pregnancy increased the odds of bTB by 1.7 times (95% CI: 1.2–2.4) compared to non-pregnant cattle. Taken together, the results suggest high herd and animal level prevalence of bTB in these 5 districts, with the greatest risk of bTB in older and pregnant cattle within large herds (>20), and highlight an urgent need for continued surveillance and implementation of bTB control programs in Bangladesh.

Modelling the effect of test-and-slaughter strategies to control bovine tuberculosis in endemic high prevalence herds

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) prevalence substantially increased over the past two decades with relatively high impact on large dairy herds, raising the concern of regulatory authorities and industry stakeholders, and threatening animal and public health. Lack of resources, together with the economic and social consequences of whole-herd stamping-out, makes depopulation an impractical disease control alternative in these herds. The increase in bTB prevalence was associated with demographic and management changes in the dairy industry in Uruguay, reducing the efficacy of the current control programme (i.e. status quo) based on intradermal serial testing with caudal fold- and comparative-cervical tuberculin test-and-slaughter of reactors (CFT-CCT). Here, we aimed to assess the epidemiological effectiveness of six alternative control scenarios based on test-and-slaughter of positive animals, using mathematical modelling to infer bTB-within-herd dynamics. We simulated six alternative control strategies consisting of testing adult cattle (>1 year) in the herd every 3 months using one test (in vivo or in vitro) or a combination in parallel of two tests (CFT, interferon-gamma release assay-IGRA- or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). Results showed no significant differences overall in the time needed to reach bTB eradication (median ranging between 61 and 82 months) or official bovine tuberculosis-free status (two consecutive negative herd tests) between any of the alternative strategies and the status quo (median ranging between 50 and 59 months). However, we demonstrate how alternative strategies can significantly reduce bTB prevalence when applied for restricted periods (6, 12 or 24 months), and in the case of IGRAc (IGRA using peptide-cocktail antigens), without incurring on higher unnecessary slaughter of animals (false positives) than the status quo in the first 6 months of the programme (p-value < .05). Enhanced understanding bTB-within-herd dynamics with the application of different control strategies help to identify optimal strategies to ultimately improve bTB control and bTB eradication from dairies in Uruguay and similar endemic settings.

Mycobacterium bovis Population Structure in Cattle and Local Badgers: Co-Localisation and Variation by Farm Type

Bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Northern Ireland includes Multiple-Locus Variable number tandem repeat Analysis (MLVA) to determine the Mycobacterium bovis genetic type present in both cattle and the predominant wildlife host, the European badger (Meles meles). These data are useful for investigating clusters of infection and understanding the scale at which interspecific transmission may occur. We utilised a comprehensive dataset of routinely sampled isolates from infected cattle and from badgers killed in road-traffic accidents to investigate the spatial co-location of MLVA types in, and between, the badger and cattle populations. Furthermore, we investigated the hypothesis that the type of farming enterprise might explain some variation in this relationship. MLVA types were spatially co-localised in cattle and road-traffic accident (RTA) badger hosts, indicative of a shared epidemic. Dairy herds were more likely to have at least one MLVA type in common with nearby RTA badgers, compared to non-dairy herd types. Marginally more MLVA spatial clustering was observed in non-dairy herds, which may be a consequence of relatively more between-herd movements. For the cattle population, local transmission mechanisms such as infection from contiguous herds, infectious wildlife and short-range between-herd cattle movements appear primarily to drive the epidemic: there appears to be a more limited role for long-range movements. Animal management practices are likely to be the driving force behind this observation, as beef rearing is associated with elevated numbers of animal movements compared to dairy herds.

Modeling the Accuracy of Two in-vitro Bovine Tuberculosis Tests Using a Bayesian Approach

Accuracy of new or alternative diagnostic tests is typically estimated in relation to a well-standardized reference test referred to as a gold standard. However, for bovine tuberculosis (bTB), a chronic disease of cattle, affecting animal and public health, no reliable gold standard is available. In this context, latent-class models implemented using a Bayesian approach can help to assess the accuracy of diagnostic tests incorporating previous knowledge on test performance and disease prevalence. In Uruguay, bTB-prevalence has increased in the past decades partially because of the limited accuracy of the diagnostic strategy in place, based on intradermal testing (caudal fold test, CFT, for screening and comparative cervical test, CCT, for confirmation) and slaughter of reactors. Here, we evaluated the performance of two alternative bTB-diagnostic tools, the interferon-gamma assay, IGRA, and the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), which had never been used in Uruguay in the absence of a gold standard. In order to do so animals from two heavily infected dairy herds and tested with CFT-CCT were also analyzed with the IGRA using two antigens (study 1) and the ELISA (study 2). The accuracy of the IGRA and ELISA was assessed fitting two latent-class models: a two test-one population model (LCA-a) based on the analysis of CFT/CFT-CCT test results and one in-vitro test (IGRA/ELISA), and a one test-one population model (LCA-b) using the IGRA or ELISA information in which the prevalence was modeled using information from the skin tests. Posterior estimates for model LCA-a suggested that IGRA was as sensitive (75-78%) as the CFT and more sensitive than the serial use of CFT-CCT. Its specificity (90-96%) was superior to the one for the CFT and equivalent to the use of CFT-CCT. Estimates from LCA-b models consistently yielded lower posterior Se estimates for the IGRA but similar results for its Sp. Estimates for the Se (52% 95%PPI:44.41-71.28) and the Sp (92% 95%PPI:78.63-98.76) of the ELISA were however similar regardless of the model used. These results suggest that the incorporation of IGRA for detection of bTB in highly infected herds could be a useful tool to improve the sensitivity of the bTB-control in Uruguay.

Bayesian Assessment of the Accuracy of a PCR-Based Rapid Diagnostic Test for Bovine Tuberculosis in Swine

Infection with the Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) causes a disease referred to as bovine tuberculosis (bTB), which affects a wide range of mammal hosts. Many countries have implemented control and eradication plans that have resulted in variable levels of efficacy and success. Although bTB is a notifiable disease in Argentina, and a control plan that targets cattle herds has been in place for decades, M. bovis is still prevalent in cattle, swine, and certain wild species. The aim of the paper here was to assess the sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of PCR from tissue, which is a test for rapid M. bovis detection in swine. Bacteriological culture was also performed for comparison purposes. A Bayesian approach was applied to estimate the accuracy of the diagnostic tests, PCR and bacteriological culture, in 266 swine samples with bTB-like lesions recovered during routine official inspections at slaughterhouses. A one-population model, assuming conditional dependence between test results, and incorporating prior information on the performance of the tests obtained from the literature, was used to estimate the tests Se and Sp. The accuracy of the combined (in parallel) application of both tests was also estimated. The Se of the PCR (82.9%) was higher than the Se of the bacteriological culture (79.9%), whereas the Sp of both tests was similar (88.5 and 89.0%, respectively). Furthermore, when both techniques were assessed in parallel, the Se of the diagnostic system increased substantially (Se = 96.6%) with a moderate Sp loss (Sp = 78.8%; PPV = 92.8%; NPV = 89%). Results suggest that the PCR, or the combined application of bacteriological culture and PCR, may serve as an accurate diagnostic tool to confirm bTB in swine samples. Results here will help the design and implementation of effective surveillance strategies for the disease in swine of Argentina and other settings in which the disease is prevalent.

Diagnostic interaction between bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and Johne's disease in bTB highly prevalent dairy farms of Uruguay

The consolidation of the dairy industry, with increase in sizes, density and productivity of the herds, was associated to unprecedented bovine tuberculosis (bTB) prevalence levels in dairy herds in Uruguay, where Johne's disease (JD), another mycobacterial disease, is also prevalent. Here, we aimed to characterize the association between bTB- and JD-diagnostic results in two heavily bTB- and JD-coinfected dairy herds. Results from bTB-intradermal tests and JD-ELISA in 686 cows indicated a significantly (P < 0.001) higher frequency of bTB-positive animals in the JD-positive population, in which a significantly lower agreement between the caudal and cervical comparative intradermal tests was observed, compared to the JD-negative population. These findings suggest a significant association between the detection of these mycobacterial diseases, that may affect the performance of the routine bTB diagnostic tests performed in dairy herds in Uruguay.

Risk of Introduction of Bovine Tuberculosis (TB) Into TB-Free Herds in Southern Bahia, Brazil, Associated With Movement of Live Cattle

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is a zoonotic disease, endemic in Brazil, with an impact on public health and trade. TB causes direct and indirect financial losses to infected farms and regions. Our study aimed at quantifying the risk of introduction of TB into TB-free herds of southern Bahia, Brazil, via movement of live cattle from other regions of the State. Results suggest that the annual risk of introducing TB into free farms of southern Bahia, either through legal or illegal trade of live cattle, is very low, varying, on average, between 0.001 and 0.006 depending on the region of origin of the animals. Noteworthy, illegal movements accounted for 90% of the risk demonstrating the importance of compliance with official regulations. These results are useful to inform both veterinary authorities and farmers in making decisions related to the regionalization of the control for TB in the country, with the ultimate goal of eliminating this major zoonotic disease from an important dairy region of Brazil.

Whole genome sequencing of the monomorphic pathogen Mycobacterium bovis reveals local differentiation of cattle clinical isolates

Background

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) poses serious risks to animal welfare and economy, as well as to public health as a zoonosis. Its etiological agent, Mycobacterium bovis, belongs to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC), a group of genetically monomorphic organisms featured by a remarkably high overall nucleotide identity (99.9%). Indeed, this characteristic is of major concern for correct typing and determination of strain-specific traits based on sequence diversity. Due to its historical economic dependence on cattle production, Uruguay is deeply affected by the prevailing incidence of Mycobacterium bovis. With the world’s highest number of cattle per human, and its intensive cattle production, Uruguay represents a particularly suited setting to evaluate genomic variability among isolates, and the diversity traits associated to this pathogen.

Results

We compared 186 genomes from MTBC strains isolated worldwide, and found a highly structured population in M. bovis. The analysis of 23 new M. bovis genomes, belonging to strains isolated in Uruguay evidenced three groups present in the country. Despite presenting an expected highly conserved genomic structure and sequence, these strains segregate into a clustered manner within the worldwide phylogeny. Analysis of the non-pe/ppe differential areas against a reference genome defined four main sources of variability, namely: regions of difference (RD), variable genes, duplications and novel genes. RDs and variant analysis segregated the strains into clusters that are concordant with their spoligotype identities. Due to its high homoplasy rate, spoligotyping failed to reflect the true genomic diversity among worldwide representative strains, however, it remains a good indicator for closely related populations.

Conclusions

This study introduces a comprehensive population structure analysis of worldwide M. bovis isolates. The incorporation and analysis of 23 novel Uruguayan M. bovis genomes, sheds light onto the genomic diversity of this pathogen, evidencing the existence of greater genetic variability among strains than previously contemplated.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12864-017-4249-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evaluating empirical contact networks as potential transmission pathways for infectious diseases

Networks are often used to incorporate heterogeneity in contact patterns in mathematical models of pathogen spread. However, few tools exist to evaluate whether potential transmission pathways in a population are adequately represented by an observed contact network. Here, we describe a novel permutation-based approach, the network k-test, to determine whether the pattern of cases within the observed contact network are likely to have resulted from transmission processes in the network, indicating that the network represents potential transmission pathways between nodes. Using simulated data of pathogen spread, we compare the power of this approach to other commonly used analytical methods. We test the robustness of this technique across common sampling constraints, including undetected cases, unobserved individuals and missing interaction data. We also demonstrate the application of this technique in two case studies of livestock and wildlife networks. We show that the power of the k-test to correctly identify the epidemiologic relevance of contact networks is substantially greater than other methods, even when 50% of contact or case data are missing. We further demonstrate that the impact of missing data on network analysis depends on the structure of the network and the type of missing data.

Optimal surveillance strategies for bovine tuberculosis in a low-prevalence country

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic disease of cattle that is difficult to control and eradicate in part due to the costly nature of surveillance and poor sensitivity of diagnostic tests. Like many countries, bTB prevalence in Uruguay has gradually declined to low levels due to intensive surveillance and control efforts over the past decades. In low prevalence settings, broad-based surveillance strategies based on routine testing may not be the most cost-effective way for controlling between-farm bTB transmission, while targeted surveillance aimed at high-risk farms may be more efficient for this purpose. To investigate the efficacy of targeted surveillance, we developed an integrated within- and between-farm bTB transmission model utilizing data from Uruguay's comprehensive animal movement database. A genetic algorithm was used to fit uncertain parameter values, such as the animal-level sensitivity of skin testing and slaughter inspection, to observed bTB epidemiological data. Of ten alternative surveillance strategies evaluated, a strategy based on eliminating testing in low-risk farms resulted in a 40% reduction in sampling effort without increasing bTB incidence. These results can inform the design of more cost-effective surveillance programs to detect and control bTB in Uruguay and other countries with low bTB prevalence.