A simple tool for comparing benefits and 'costs' of COVID-19 exit strategies

The dangers of having only one pandemic exit strategy

BACKGROUND

When it comes to pandemic response, preparation can be the key. Between 2020 and 2024, the fast-paced development of COVID-19-often compounded by pubic policies' failures to reflect the latest reality and the public's divergent reactions to the pandemic and the policies-means that society should prepare for exit strategies that can reflect the reality of the pandemic and the interests of the people. Yet oftentimes societies only have one exit strategy with limited scope. This paper investigates the dangers of having only one pandemic exit strategy for pandemics like COVID-19.

METHODS

Analyses were based on a review of the literature on COVID-19 exit strategies and our own research. The PubMed literature search focused on two concepts-"COVID-19″ and "exit strategy"-and was limited to peer-reviewed papers published between 2020 and 2024 in English.

RESULTS

A total of 31 articles were included in the final review. Analyses showed that existing studies on COVID-19 exit strategies often focused on using the modelling method to gauge one exit strategy. Exit strategies were often discussed in the context of implementing, easing, or lifting specific pharmaceutical or non-pharmaceutical interventions. Staged and country-wide coordinated exit strategies were also discussed in the literature, both of which were often deemed as comparatively rigorous options compared to single or stand-alone exit strategies. Drawing on the overall development of COVID-19 and our own research, we presented and discussed the importance of having multiple exit strategies that are considerate of all possible pandemic trajectories, diverse interests of the public, and the communication challenges officials might face in introducing or implementing pandemic policies.

CONCLUSION

This paper underscored the importance of having multiple exit strategies for societies to prepare for pandemics. The insights of this study can help inform health policies so that they can more comprehensively and compassionately protect the needs and wants of the "public" in public health, particularly in grave times like COVID-19.

Exit strategies from lockdowns due to COVID-19: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, countries have adopted various degrees of restrictive measures on people to reduce COVID-19 transmission. These measures have had significant social and economic costs. In the absence of therapeutics, and low vaccination coverage, strategies for a safe exit plan from a lockdown are required to mitigate the transmission and simultaneously re-open societies. Most countries have outlined or have implemented lockdown exit plans. The objective of this scoping review is to (a) identify and map the different strategies for exit from lockdowns, (b) document the effects of these exit strategies, and (c) discuss features of successful exit strategies based on the evidence.

METHODS

A five-step approach was used in this scoping review: (a) identifying the research question and inclusion/exclusion criteria; (b) searching the literature using keywords within PubMed and WHO databases; (c) study selection; (d) data extraction; (e) collating results and qualitative synthesis of findings.

RESULTS

Of the 406 unique studies found, 107 were kept for full-text review. Studies suggest the post-peak period as optimal timing for an exit, supplemented by other triggers such as sufficient health system capacity, and increased testing rate. A controlled and step-wise exit plan which is flexible and guided by information from surveillance systems is optimal. Studies recommend continued use of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing, use of facemasks, and hygiene measures, in different combinations when exiting from a lockdown, even after optimal vaccination coverage has been attained.

CONCLUSION

Reviewed studies have suggested adopting a multi-pronged strategy consisting of different approaches depending on the context. Among the different exit strategies reviewed (phase-wise exit, hard exit, and constant cyclic patterns of lockdown), phase-wise exit appears to be the optimal exit strategy.