Validation of fragility fractures in primary care electronic medical records: A population-based study

Secondary fracture prevention in Spanish primary care: results of the PREFRAOS Study

This study demonstrated a large treatment gap in elderly subjects experiencing fragility fracture in Spanish primary care, a low treatment persistence among subjects who do receive treatment, and more than one-quarter having no follow-up visits post-fracture. These data highlight the need to improve secondary fracture prevention in primary care.

PURPOSE

To describe osteoporosis (OP) treatment patterns and follow-up in subjects with fragility fracture seen in Spanish primary care (PC).

METHODS

This observational, retrospective chart review included subjects aged ≥ 70 years listed in the centers' records (November 2018 to March 2020), with ≥ 1 fragility fracture and prior consultation for any reason; subjects who had participated in another study were excluded. Outcomes included OP treatments and follow-up visits post-fragility fracture.

RESULTS

Of 665 subjects included, most (87%) were women; overall mean (SD) age, 82 years. Fewer than two thirds (61%) had received any prior OP treatment (women, 65%; men, 38%); of these, 38% had received > 1 treatment (women, 25%; men, 13%). Among treated subjects, the most frequent first-line treatments were alendronate (43%) and RANKL inhibitor denosumab (22%), with a higher discontinuation rate and shorter treatment duration observed for alendronate (discontinuation, 42% vs 16%; median treatment duration, 2.5 vs 2.1 years). Over one-quarter (26%) of subjects had no follow-up visits post-fragility fracture, with this gap higher in women than men (35% versus 25%). The most common schedule of follow-up visits was yearly (43% of subjects with a fragility fracture), followed by half-yearly (17%) and biennial (10%), with a similar trend in men and women. Most OP treatments were prescribed by PC physicians, other than teriparatide and zoledronate.

CONCLUSIONS

Across Spanish PC, we observed a large gap in the treatment and follow-up of elderly subjects experiencing a fragility fracture. Our data highlights the urgent need to improve secondary fracture prevention in PC.

Validity of Major Osteoporotic Fracture Diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Registry

Objective

To evaluate the validity of diagnosis codes for Major Osteoporotic Fracture (MOF) in the Danish National Patient Registry (NPR) and secondly to evaluate whether the fracture was incident/acute using register-based definitions including date criteria and procedural codes.

Methods

We identified a random sample of 2400 records with a diagnosis code for a MOF in the NPR with dates in the year of 2018. Diagnoses were coded with the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). The sample included 2375 unique fracture patients from the Region of Southern Denmark. Medical records were retrieved for the study population and reviewed by an algorithmic search function and medical doctors to verify the MOF diagnoses. Register-based definitions of incident/acute MOF was evaluated in NPR data by applying date criteria and procedural codes.

Results

The PPV for MOF diagnoses overall was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98;0.99) and PPV=0.99 for the four individual fracture sites, respectively. Further, analyses of incident/acute fractures applying date criteria, procedural codes and using patients' first contact in the NPR resulted in PPV=0.88 (95% CI: 0.84;0.91) for hip fractures, PPV=0.78 (95% CI: 0.74;0.83) for humerus fractures, PPV=0.78 (95% CI: 0.73;0.83) for clinical vertebral fractures and PPV=0.87 (95% CI: 0.83;0.90) for wrist fractures.

Conclusion

ICD-10 coded MOF diagnoses are valid in the NPR. Furthermore, a set of register-based criteria can be applied to qualify if the MOF fracture was incident/acute. Thus, the NPR is a valuable and reliable data source for epidemiological research on osteoporotic fractures.

Incidence Rate and Factors Associated With Fractures Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Ankylosing Spondylitis in the United States

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the incidence rate and factors associated with fractures among adults with ankylosing spondylitis (AS).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study with data from the Rheumatology Informatics System for Effectiveness registry linked to Medicare claims from 2016 to 2018. Patients were required to have two AS International Classification of Diseases codes 30 or more days apart and a subsequent Medicare claim. Then, 1 year of baseline characteristics were included, after which patients were observed for fractures. First, we calculated the incidence rate of fractures. Second, we constructed logistic regression models to identify factors associated with the fracture, including age, sex, race and ethnicity, body mass index, Medicare/Medicaid dual eligibility, area deprivation index, Charlson comorbidity index, smoking status, osteoporosis, historical fracture, and use of osteoporosis treatment, glucocorticoids, and opioids.

RESULTS

We identified 1,426 adults with prevalent AS. Mean ± SD age was 69.4 ± 9.8 years, 44.3% were female, and 77.3% were non-Hispanic White. Fractures occurred in 197 adults with AS. The overall incidence rate of fractures was 76.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 66.4-88.6) per 1,000 person-years. Older age (odds ratio [OR] 2.8, 95% CI 1.39-5.65), historical fracture (OR 5.24, 95% CI 3.44-7.99), and use of more than 30 mg morphine equivalent (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.08-3.19) conferred increased odds of fracture.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large sample of Medicare beneficiaries with AS, increasing age, historical fracture, and use of opioids had higher odds of fracture. Men and women were equally likely to have a fracture. Because opioid use was associated with fracture in AS, this high-risk population should be considered for interventions to mitigate risk.

Validation of gout diagnosis in electronic primary care medical records: A population-based study

OBJECTIVE

The main objective of the study was to see the concordance between the diagnosis of gout recorded in primary care electronic medical records and the ACR/EULAR 2015 classification criteria.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted using electronic medicals records in 7 primary care centres of Barcelona. Patients' data to study clinical diagnose and management was gathered from the primary care electronic medical records of the Catalonian health institute (Institut Català de la Salut, ICS) and phone interview. Patients were considered to have gout if they scored 8 or more points on the EULAR/ACR 2015 classification criteria for gout.

RESULTS

In total, 70.9% of the patients with a gout diagnosis met ACR/EULAR 2015 criteria. Adding a hyperuricemia in a blood test in the EMR increased the percentage to 78.9%. 29.8% of the gout patients were not receiving urate-lowering therapy. 62.3% of the treated patients did not achieve the target uricemia (< 6mg/dL).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of gout patients from primary care electronic medical records fulfil ACR/EULAR gout criteria. This database can be used for observational studies. In most of the gout patients the urate target was not achieved.

Real-world evidence: new opportunities for osteoporosis research. Recommendations from a Working Group from the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO)

This narrative review summarises the recommendations of a Working Group of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO) for the conduct and reporting of real-world evidence studies with a focus on osteoporosis research.

PURPOSE

Vast amounts of data are routinely generated at every healthcare contact and activity, and there is increasing recognition that these real-world data can be analysed to generate scientific evidence. Real-world evidence (RWE) is increasingly used to delineate the natural history of disease, assess real-life drug effectiveness, understand adverse events and in health economic analysis. The aim of this work was to understand the benefits and limitations of this type of data and outline approaches to ensure that transparent and high-quality evidence is generated.

METHODS

A ESCEO Working Group was convened in December 2022 to discuss the applicability of RWE to osteoporosis research and approaches to best practice.

RESULTS

This narrative review summarises the agreed recommendations for the conduct and reporting of RWE studies with a focus on osteoporosis research.

CONCLUSIONS

It is imperative that research using real-world data is conducted to the highest standards with close attention to limitations and biases of these data, and with transparency at all stages of study design, data acquisition and curation, analysis and reporting to increase the trustworthiness of RWE study findings.

Risk of Parkinson's disease in a gout Mediterranean population: A case-control study

INTRODUCTION

High levels of serum urate has been associated to a neuroprotective effect in Parkinson's disease (PD) as an antioxidant agent. However, the relation between gout and PD remains contradictory.

OBJECTIVE

To study if the neuroprotective effect of serum urate is maintained in patients with gout in a large urban Mediterranean population.

METHODS

Primary care based matched case-control study, carried out using an electronic health record database from the public primary care health system of Barcelona. The database contains anonymous data from 1,520,934 patients. All patients, over 40 years old, with a new diagnostic record of PD, or a new prescription of dopaminergic drugs were included (incident cases). We randomly selected four controls for each case, matched by gender and age, with the frequency matching approach. Retrospective data of PD risk factors were also collected for each individual. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association of gout and PD, adjusted by the presence of other risk factors.

RESULTS

A new PD diagnosis was found in 17,629 individuals (incident diagnosis rate of 2.2 per 1000 individuals). Multivariate logistic regression model showed for gout: aOR=0.83 (0.76-0.91). When stratified by age, aOR for those under 75years was 0.99 (0.85-1.16) and 75 or over OR=0.77 (0.70-0.86). Dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus were associated with an increased risk of PD. Tobacco consumption was protective.

CONCLUSION

Our study, the first one made in a Mediterranean population, shows a PD protective effect of gout in both men and women over 75years old.

Development and external validation of a 1- and 5-year fracture prediction tool based on electronic medical records data: The EPIC risk algorithm

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop and validate a fracture risk algorithm for the automatic identification of subjects at high risk of imminent and long-term fracture risk.

RESEARCH, DESIGN, AND METHODS

A cohort of subjects aged 50-85, between 2007 and 2017, was extracted from the Catalan information system for the development of research in primary care database (SIDIAP). Participants were followed until the earliest of death, transfer out, fracture, or 12/31/2017. Potential risk factors were obtained based on the existing literature. Cox regression was used to model 1 and 5-year risk of hip and major fracture. The original cohort was randomly split in 80:20 for development and internal validation purposes respectively. External validation was explored in a cohort extracted from the Spanish database for pharmaco-epidemiological research in primary care.

RESULTS

A total of 1.76 million people were included from SIDIAP (50.7 % women with mean age of 65.4 years). Hip and major fracture incidence rates were 3.57 [95%CI 3.53 to 3.60] and 11.61 [95%CI 11.54 to 11.68] per 1000 person-years, respectively. The derived model included 19 risk factors. Internal validity showed good results on calibration and discrimination. The 1-year C-statistic for hip and major fracture were 0.851 (95%CI 0.853 to 0.864), and 0.717 (95%CI 0.742 to 0.749) respectively. The 5-year C-statistic for hip and major fracture were 0.849 (95%CI 0.847 to 0.852) and 0.724 (95%CI 0.721 to 0.727) respectively. External validation showed good performance for hip and major fracture risk prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and validated a clinical prediction tool for 1- and 5-year hip and major osteoporotic fracture risks using electronic primary care data. The proposed algorithm can be automatically estimated at the population level using the available primary care records. Future work is needed on the cost-effectiveness of its use for population-based screening and targeted prevention of osteoporotic fractures.

Prevalence and treatment of fragility fractures in Spanish primary care: PREFRAOS study

In Spanish primary care (PC), the prevalence of fragility fractures (FF) in subjects ≥ 70 years old is high, especially in women. One-third of subjects with an FF lacked osteoporosis (OP) diagnosis and >50% were not currently receiving OP medication. An improvement of the FF management in this population is needed.

PURPOSE

In Spanish PC, the prevalence of FF is high, especially in women. One-third of subjects with a FF lacked an OP diagnosis and more than half were not currently receiving OP medication. Several studies reported underdiagnosis/undertreatment of OP in PC among elderly subjects with FF. To date, no such data exist for Spain. The purpose is to estimate the prevalence of FF in the elderly population (≥ 70 years old) and to describe the characteristics, risk factors, comorbidities, and OP diagnosis and treatment rates of subjects with FF in Spanish PC centers.

METHODS

This is an observational, retrospective study in Spain consisting of two phases. Phase A included all subjects ≥ 70 years old listed in the center's medical records from November 2018 to March 2020. Phase B included subjects with FF and prior consultation at the center for any reason. Subjects were excluded only if they had previously participated in another study. Primary outcomes were prevalence of FF (phase A) and characteristics of subjects with at least one FF (phase B).

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of FF was 17.7% among subjects visiting medical centers for any reason (24.1% women vs. 8.0% men) (30 PC centers from 14 Spanish regions). Vertebral (5.1%) was the most prevalent fracture. Of 665 subjects in phase B, most (87%) were women and ≥ 80 years old (57%), suffered mainly major OP fracture (68%), and had multiple comorbidities (≥ 2, 89.2%). While two-thirds had OP diagnosis and 61.1% received OP medication anytime in the past, 56.8% were not currently receiving OP medication. Diagnosis and treatment rates were lower among men (43% and 38% vs. 70% and 65%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of FF was high, especially in women. One-third of subjects lacked OP diagnosis and ≥ 50% were not receiving OP treatment; diagnosis and treatment gaps were larger among men. This reinforces the need to improve the management of FF in the elderly population. However, as PC centers participating in this study had high OP experience that have the potential to do better in terms of diagnosis and treatment, caution in the generalization of these data should be taken.

Predicting Imminent Fractures in Patients With a Recent Fracture or Starting Oral Bisphosphonate Therapy: Development and International Validation of Prognostic Models

The availability of anti-osteoporosis medications with rapid onset and high potency requires tools to identify patients at high imminent fracture risk (IFR). There are few tools that predict a patient's IFR. We aimed to develop and validate tools for patients with a recent fracture and for patients initiating oral bisphosphonate therapy. Models for two separate cohorts, those with incident fragility fracture (IFx) and with incident oral bisphosphonate prescription (OBP), were developed in primary care records from Spain (SIDIAP database), UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD), and Denmark (Danish Health Registries). Separate models were developed for hip, major, and any fracture outcomes. Only variables present in all databases were included in Lasso regression models for the development and logistic regression models for external validation. Discrimination was tested using area under curve (AUC) and calibration was assessed using observed versus predicted risk plots stratified by age, sex, and previous fracture history. The development analyses included 35,526 individuals in the IFx and 41,401 in the OBP cohorts, with 671,094 in IFx and 330,256 in OBP for the validation analyses. Both the IFx and OBP models demonstrated similarly good performance for hip fracture at 1 year (with AUCs of 0.79 [95% CI 0.75 to 0.82] and 0.87 [0.83 to 0.91] in Spain, 0.71 [0.71 to 0.72] and 0.73 [0.72 to 0.74] in the UK, and 0.70 [0.70 to 0.70] and 0.69 [0.68 to 0.70] in Denmark), and lower discrimination for major osteoporotic and any fracture sites. Calibration was good across all three countries. Discrimination and calibration for the 2-year models was similar. The proposed IFR prediction models could be used to identify more precisely patients at high imminent risk of fracture and inform anti-osteoporosis treatment selection. The freely available model parameters permit local validation and implementation. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Association of Tramadol vs Codeine Prescription Dispensation With Mortality and Other Adverse Clinical Outcomes

IMPORTANCE

Although tramadol is increasingly used to manage chronic noncancer pain, few safety studies have compared it with other opioids.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of tramadol, compared with codeine, with mortality and other adverse clinical outcomes as used in outpatient settings.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective, population-based, propensity score-matched cohort study using a primary care database with routinely collected medical records and pharmacy dispensations covering more than 80% of the population of Catalonia, Spain (≈6 million people). Patients 18 years or older with 1 or more year of available data and dispensation of tramadol or codeine (2007-2017) were included and followed up to December 31, 2017.

EXPOSURES

New prescription dispensation of tramadol or codeine (no dispensation in the previous year).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Outcomes studied were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, fractures, constipation, delirium, falls, opioid abuse/dependence, and sleep disorders within 1 year after the first dispensation. Absolute rate differences (ARDs) and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using cause-specific Cox models.

RESULTS

Of the 1 093 064 patients with a tramadol or codeine dispensation during the study period (326 921 for tramadol, 762 492 for codeine, 3651 for both drugs concomitantly), a total of 368 960 patients (184 480 propensity score-matched pairs) were included after study exclusions and propensity score matching (mean age, 53.1 [SD, 16.1] years; 57.3% women). Compared with codeine, tramadol dispensation was significantly associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality (incidence, 13.00 vs 5.61 per 1000 person-years; HR, 2.31 [95% CI, 2.08-2.56]; ARD, 7.37 [95% CI, 6.09-8.78] per 1000 person-years), cardiovascular events (incidence, 10.03 vs 8.67 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.05-1.27]; ARD, 1.36 [95% CI, 0.45-2.36] per 1000 person-years), and fractures (incidence, 12.26 vs 8.13 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.37-1.65]; ARD, 4.10 [95% CI, 3.02-5.29] per 1000 person-years). No significant difference was observed for the risk of falls, delirium, constipation, opioid abuse/dependence, or sleep disorders.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this population-based cohort study, a new prescription dispensation of tramadol, compared with codeine, was significantly associated with a higher risk of subsequent all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and fractures, but there was no significant difference in the risk of constipation, delirium, falls, opioid abuse/dependence, or sleep disorders. The findings should be interpreted cautiously, given the potential for residual confounding.

Long-Term Administration of Abacavir and Etravirine Impairs Semen Quality and Alters Redox System and Bone Metabolism in Growing Male Wistar Rats

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is used in HIV-infected patients. Alongside the prolongation of patients' life, adverse side effects associated with long-term therapy are becoming an increasing problem. Therefore, optimizing of HAART is extremely important. The study is aimed at evaluating the toxicity of abacavir and etravirine in monotherapy on the reproductive system, liver, kidneys, and bones in young, sexually mature, male rats. Thirty-six 8-week-old male Wistar rats randomized into three 12-animal groups received either normal saline (control), abacavir 60 mg/kg (AB group), or etravirine 40 mg/kg (ET group) once daily for 16 weeks. Semen morphology, oxide-redox state parameters (MDA, SOD, catalase, GPx, glutathione, GSH/GSSG ratio) in tissue homogenates (testes, liver, kidneys), and serum samples were studied. In bones, microcomputed tomography and a four-point bending test were performed. Total sperm count, sperm concentration, motility, and sperm morphology did not differ significantly in AB or ET groups compared to the control. In the flow cytometry of semen, an increased percentage of cells with denatured DNA was noticed for both tested drugs. However, no significant changes of oxide-redox state in testicular homogenates were found, except of increased SOD activity in the AB-receiving group. Additionally, ET significantly altered catalase and GPx in the liver and SOD activity in kidneys. Abacavir decreased catalase in the liver and GSH levels in kidneys. AB caused significant changes to bone microarchitecture (bone volume fraction, trabecular number, connectivity density, total porosity) and increased Young's modulus. Etravirine had a greater impact on macrometric parameters of bones (tibial index, mid-tibial diameter, femur length). After 4 weeks in the ET group, a lower 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D₃ serum concentration was found. The results showed that abacavir and etravirine disturb oxidative stress. An increase in the percentage of sperms with chromatin damage suggests decreased fertility in rats receiving the studied drugs. Both drugs affected bone formation in growing rats. Additionally, etravirine disturbed vitamin D metabolism.

Preschool Obesity Is Associated With an Increased Risk of Childhood Fracture: A Longitudinal Cohort Study of 466,997 Children and Up to 11 Years of Follow-up in Catalonia, Spain

This study aimed to determine if having an overweight or obese range body mass index (BMI) at time of beginning school is associated with increased fracture incidence in childhood. A dynamic cohort was created from children presenting for routine preschool primary care screening, collected in the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) platform in Catalonia, Spain. Data were collected from 296 primary care centers representing 74% of the regional pediatric population. A total of 466,997 children (48.6% female) with a validated weight and height measurement within routine health care screening at age 4 years (±6 months) between 2006 and 2013 were included, and followed up to the age of 15, migration out of region, death, or until December 31, 2016. BMI was calculated at age 4 years and classified using WHO growth tables, and fractures were identified using previously validated ICD10 codes in electronic primary care records, divided by anatomical location. Actuarial lifetables were used to calculate cumulative incidence. Cox regression was used to investigate the association of BMI category and fracture risk with adjustment for socioeconomic status, age, sex, and nationality. Median follow-up was 4.90 years (interquartile range [IQR] 2.50 to 7.61). Cumulative incidence of any fracture during childhood was 9.20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.79% to 14.61%) for underweight, 10.06% (9.82% to 10.29%) for normal weight, 11.28% (10.22% to 12.35%) for overweight children, and 13.05% (10.69% to 15.41%) for children with obesity. Compared with children of normal range weight, having an overweight and obese range BMI was associated with an excess risk of lower limb fracture (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.42 [1.26 to 1.59]; 1.74 [1.46 to 2.06], respectively) and upper limb fracture (adjusted HR = 1.10 [1.03 to 1.17]; 1.19 [1.07 to 1.31]). Overall, preschool children with an overweight or obese range BMI had increased incidence of upper and lower limb fractures in childhood compared with contemporaries of normal weight. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Is it time to use real-world data from primary care in Alzheimer's disease?

BACKGROUND

The analysis of real-world data in clinical research is rising, but its use to study dementia subtypes has been hardly addressed. We hypothesized that real-world data might be a powerful tool to update AD epidemiology at a lower cost than face-to-face studies, to estimate the prevalence and incidence rates of AD in Catalonia (Southern Europe), and to assess the adequacy of real-world data routinely collected in primary care settings for epidemiological research on AD.

METHODS

We obtained data from the System for the Development of Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) database, which contains anonymized information of > 80% of the Catalan population. We estimated crude and standardized incidence rates and prevalences (95% confidence intervals (CI)) of AD in people aged at least 65 years living in Catalonia in 2016.

RESULTS

Age- and sex-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of AD were 3.1% (95%CI 2.7-3.6) and 4.2 per 1000 person-years (95%CI 3.8-4.6), respectively. Prevalence and incidence were higher in women and in the oldest people.

CONCLUSIONS

Our incidence and prevalence estimations were slightly lower than the recent face-to-face studies conducted in Spain and higher than other analyses of electronic health data from other European populations. Real-world data routinely collected in primary care settings could be a powerful tool to study the epidemiology of AD.

The association between type 2 diabetes mellitus, hip fracture, and post-hip fracture mortality: a multi-state cohort analysis

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with an excess risk of fractures and overall mortality. This study compared hip fracture and post-hip fracture mortality in T2DM and non-diabetic subjects. The salient findings are that subjects in T2DM are at higher risk of dying after suffering a hip fracture.

INTRODUCTION

Previous research suggests that individuals with T2DM are at an excess risk of both fractures and overall mortality, but their combined effect is unknown. Using multi-state cohort analyses, we estimate the association between T2DM and the transition to hip fracture, post-hip fracture mortality, and hip fracture-free all-cause death.

METHODS

Population-based cohort from Catalonia, Spain, including all individuals aged 65 to 80 years with a recorded diagnosis of T2DM on 1 January 2006; and non-T2DM matched (up to 2:1) by year of birth, gender, and primary care practice.

RESULTS

A total of 44,802 T2DM and 81,233 matched controls (53% women, mean age 72 years old) were followed for a median of 8 years: 23,818 died without fracturing and 3317 broke a hip, of whom 838 subsequently died. Adjusted HRs for hip fracture-free mortality were 1.32 (95% CI 1.28 to 1.37) for men and 1.72 (95% CI 1.65 to 1.79) for women. HRs for hip fracture were 1.24 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.43) and 1.48 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.60), whilst HRs for post-hip fracture mortality were 1.28 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.60) and 1.57 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.88) in men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSION

T2DM individuals are at increased risk of hip fracture, post-hip fracture mortality, and hip fracture-free death. After adjustment, T2DM men were at a 28% higher risk of dying after suffering a hip fracture and women had 57% excess risk of post-hip fracture mortality.

Differential Mortality and the Excess Rates of Hip Fracture Associated With Type 2 Diabetes: Accounting for Competing Risks in Fracture Prediction Matters

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is associated with a reduced life expectancy. The latest published evidence suggests an increased risk of fractures among T2DM patients. We conducted a population-based cohort study to determine the impact of mortality as a competing risk in the study of the association between T2DM and hip fracture rates. Participants were all diagnosed T2DM patients registered in the Sistema de Información para el Desarrollo de la Investigación en Atención Primaria (SIDIAP) database aged 65 years and older; up to two non-T2DM were matched by age, sex, and primary care facility. We used Cox regression models to estimate cause-specific hazard ratio (HR) of death or hip fracture according to T2DM status. Fine and Gray models were then fitted to estimate the subhazard ratio (SHR) of hip fracture while accounting for competing risk with death and to estimate the probability of hip fracture within 5 years. A total of 55,891 T2DM and 103,093 matched non-T2DM patients were observed for a median of 8 years. Mortality was 48.8 per 1000 person years (py) in T2DM, and 33.8 per 1000 py in non-T2DM; hip fracture rates were 6.0 per 1000 py and 4.9 per 1000 py, respectively. Cox models confirmed a significant association for death and hip fracture: HR 1.51 (95% CI, 1.48 to 1.55), and HR 1.32 (95% CI, 1.24 to 1.40), respectively. Accounting for death as a competing event (Fine-Gray models), the association between T2DM and hip fracture risk remained statistically significant (SHR 1.15; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.21) and the probability of a hip fracture within 5 years was 2.3% for TD2M and 1.9% for non-TD2M patients compared to 2.6% and 2.1% respectively using Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates. T2DM patients have a 50% increased mortality and, after adjusting for differential survival at 5 years, a 21% increased incidence of hip fracture when compared to matched non-T2DM. Failing to account for differential mortality leads to an overestimation of fracture risk. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.