The implementation of cattle market closure strategies to mitigate the foot-and-mouth disease epidemics: A contact modeling approach

A stochastic modeling study of quarantine strategies against foot-and-mouth disease risks through cattle trades across the Thailand-Myanmar border

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important endemic disease in livestock in Southeast Asia. Transboundary movement of animals may result in the transnational disease spread. A major cattle market is located at the Thailand-Myanmar border, where most cattle imported from Myanmar are traded. In this study, we built a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to investigate the effectiveness of a private animal quarantine service center in preventing FMDV from entering the major cattle market. We computed with different parameters and found that, with 50 % vaccine effectiveness, the risk of releasing infected cattle to the market per batch was generally low during the quarantine period of 21 and 28 days, with the risk ranging from 0.071 to 0.078 and 0.032 to 0.036, respectively. Despite the best scenario, the zero-risk state is difficult to attain. The sensitivity analysis highlights that the percentage of immune animals before entering the quarantine centers and the vaccine effectiveness are important factors. In conclusion, the 21-day quarantine period mitigates the risk of FMDV introduction into the cattle market. This control measure should be rigorously maintained to sustainably prevent FMDV outbreaks through transboundary animal movements, especially among countries in FMD-endemic regions.

Decision tree risk analysis for FMD outbreak prevention in Egyptian feedlots

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious and economically influential viral diseases on animal health and productivity. Introduction of newly purchased animals to beef farms constitutes a greater risk for the FMD outbreaks in endemic countries. Physical examination of newly purchased animals in live animal markets and/or at the receiving farm, and the timing of preventative FMD vaccination may reduce the risk of FMD outbreaks under endemic conditions. Small (< 50 animals) and medium (50-500 animals) sized beef farms in Egypt constitute more than 60% of the country's beef industry where protocols for receiving newly purchased animals vary widely between farms. The current risk analysis aimed to build a decision tree model to reduce FMD outbreaks associated with introduction of replacement cattle on Egypt's medium sized beef farms. Management practices explored were the use of physical examinations and FMD vaccination and their timing for replacements with the goal of reducing losses due to FMD outbreaks. A producer survey revealed that more than 50% of the study herds relied on live animal markets as a source for replacements and reported more FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.09), FMD herd morbidity > 50% (p-value=0.05), and weight loss > 15 kg/animal in FMD clinical cases (P-value=0.01) in comparison to herds that received replacements from other farms, imported, or purchased from small stakeholders. More than 70% of the surveyed farms received replacements ≤ 1year old and reported significantly higher FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.02) in comparison to farms that received older animals. More than 80% of the surveyed farms performed physical examination of newly purchased animals before arrival at their premises. Of the surveyed farms, 73% reported FMD outbreaks with 67% of the outbreaks being reported during the Fall and Winter seasons. The decision tree identified physical examination of newly purchased animals prior to arrival and mixing with a premises beef herd followed by vaccination against FMD upon arrival as the intervention resulting in the lowest probability of FMD outbreak (8.9%). In contrast, herds that did not perform physical examination and delay the FMD vaccination for two or more weeks had the highest probability of FMD outbreaks (33.5%).

Emerging infectious diseases may spread across pig trade networks in Thailand once introduced: a network analysis approach

In Thailand, pork is one of the most consumed meats nationwide. Pig farming is hence an important business in the country. However, 95% of the farms were considered smallholders raising only 50 pigs or less. With limited budgets and resources, the biosecurity level in these farms is relatively low. Pig movements have been previously identified as a risk factor in the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, the present study aimed to explicitly analyze the pig movement network structure and assess its vulnerability to the spread of emerging diseases in Thailand. We used official electronic records of nationwide pig movements throughout the year 2021 to construct a directed weighted one-mode network. Degree centrality, degree distribution, connected components, network community, and modularity were measured to explore the network architectures and properties. In this network, 484,483 pig movements were captured. In which, 379,948 (78.42%) were moved toward slaughterhouses and hence excluded from further analyses. From the remaining links, we suggested that the pig movement network in Thailand was vulnerable to the spread of emerging infectious diseases. Within the network, we found a strongly connected component (SCC) connecting 1044 subdistricts (38.6% of the nodes), a giant weakly connected component (GWCC) covering 98.2% of the nodes (2654/2704), and inter-regional communities with overall network modularity of 0.68. The disease may rapidly spread throughout the country. A better understanding of the nationwide pig movement networks is helpful in tailoring control interventions to cope with the newly emerged diseases once introduced.

Spatial distribution and risk areas of foot and mouth disease in mainland China

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe infectious disease in animal, which affects regional economies and food security of many countries. A total of 109 FMD outbreaks in China (from 2010 to 2019) were assessed. To investigate whether the FMD outbreaks were significantly aggregated in China, spatio-temporal cluster analysis was performed. A MaxEnt model was established to identify high risk areas for FMD in China and to identify relevant risk factors. As a result, both the FMD serotype A and O had one cluster each. Roads density, isothermality, UV-B seasonality and railways density were identified as important factors that affect the occurrence of FMD serotype A. The minimum temperature of the coldest month contributed most to FMD serotype O outbreak, followed by railways density and markets distribution. This study may provide useful information for decision makers for the tailoring of a risk-based surveillance of FMD in China.

Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Introduction of Bovine Leukemia Virus-Infected Cattle Using a Cattle Movement Network Analysis

The cattle industry is suffering economic losses caused by bovine leukemia virus (BLV) and enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL), the clinical condition associated with BLV infection. This pathogen spreads easily without detection by farmers and veterinarians due to the lack of obvious clinical signs. Cattle movement strongly contributes to the inter-farm transmission of BLV. This study quantified the farm-level risk of BLV introduction using a cattle movement analysis. A generalized linear mixed model predicting the proportion of BLV-infected cattle was constructed based on weighted in-degree centrality. Our results suggest a positive association between weighted in-degree centrality and the estimated number of introduced BLV-infected cattle. Remarkably, the introduction of approximately six cattle allowed at least one BLV-infected animal to be added to the farm in the worst-case scenario. These data suggest a high risk of BLV infection on farms with a high number of cattle being introduced. Our findings indicate the need to strengthen BLV control strategies, especially along the chain of cattle movement.

A 'what-if' scenario: Nipah virus attacks pig trade chains in Thailand

Background

Nipah virus (NiV) is a fatal zoonotic agent that was first identified amongst pig farmers in Malaysia in 1998, in an outbreak that resulted in 105 fatal human cases. That epidemic arose from a chain of infection, initiating from bats to pigs, and which then spilled over from pigs to humans. In Thailand, bat-pig-human communities can be observed across the country, particularly in the central plain. The present study therefore aimed to identify high-risk areas for potential NiV outbreaks and to model how the virus is likely to spread. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and weighted linear combination (WLC) were employed to produce the NiV risk map. The map was then overlaid with the nationwide pig movement network to identify the index subdistricts in which NiV may emerge. Subsequently, susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) modeling was used to simulate NiV spread within each subdistrict, and network modeling was used to illustrate how the virus disperses across subdistricts.

Results

Based on the MCDA and pig movement data, 14 index subdistricts with a high-risk of NiV emergence were identified. We found in our infectious network modeling that the infected subdistricts clustered in, or close to the central plain, within a range of 171 km from the source subdistricts. However, the virus may travel as far as 528.5 km (R₀ = 5).

Conclusions

In conclusion, the risk of NiV dissemination through pig movement networks in Thailand is low but not negligible. The risk areas identified in our study can help the veterinary authority to allocate financial and human resources to where preventive strategies, such as pig farm regionalization, are required and to contain outbreaks in a timely fashion once they occur.

A ferritin nanoparticle vaccine for foot-and-mouth disease virus elicited partial protection in mice

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an acute, febrile, and highly contagious infectious disease common in cloven-hoofed animals. Outbreaks and epidemics of FMD can result in major economic losses of livestock. Using ferritin nanoparticles as the scaffold for an antigen can enhance the immunogenicity of the subunit vaccine and provide possible protection against FMD. We used a baculovirus expression system to express four recombinant proteins (VP1, VP1-Ft, G-H loop-Ft, and ferritin) and the protective immunity of the FMD ferritin nanoparticle vaccines was evaluated in mice. The recombinant subunit vaccines containing VP1, VP1-Ft, and G-H loop-Ft proteins significantly increased FMDV-specific IgG and IgG subclass antibody titers compared with the PBS group, as well as enhancing splenocyte proliferation and the expression of IL-4 and IFN-γ. The VP1 and VP1-Ft vaccines provided survival rates of 55.6% and 66.7%, respectively. The G-H loop-Ft vaccine provided a 77.8% survival rate compared with 100% survival in the inactivated vaccine group. The partial survival provided by the ferritin nanoparticle vaccines indicated that further study of the effects of the fused ferritin nanoparticle FMDV vaccines in animals is warranted.

Early IgG Response to Foot and Mouth Disease Vaccine Formulated with a Vegetable Oil Adjuvant

The present study evaluated soybean oil (SO) containing vitamin E (VE) and ginseng saponins (GS) (SO-VE-GS) for their adjuvant effect on foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccine. Since mineral oil ISA 206 is a common adjuvant used in the FMD vaccine, it was used as a control adjuvant in this study. VE and GS were found to have a synergistic adjuvant effect. When mice were immunized with the FMD vaccine emulsified in SO with VE and GS, significantly higher serum IgG, IgG1, and IgG2a were found than VE and GS used alone. SO-VE-GS and ISA 206 behaved differently in adjuvant activities. When mice were immunized with the FMD vaccine adjuvanted with SO-VE-GS, significantly higher and earlier production of serum IgG was found than that adjuvanted with ISA 206. Although both adjuvants significantly increased the number of bone marrow plasma cells, a stimulation index of lymphocytes (SI) as well as the production of IL-4 and IL-6, SO-VE-GS promoted significantly higher SI and the ratio of CD4⁺/CD8⁺ T cells with production of increased IFN-γ and decreased TGF-β1 as compared with the ISA 206 group. The data suggested that SO-VE-GS activated Th1/Th2 immune responses. Transcriptome analysis of splenocytes showed that differentially expressed genes (DEGs), immune-related gene ontology (GO) terms, and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways were significantly enriched in the SO-VE-GS group. Therefore, the potent adjuvant effect of SO-VE-GS on the FMD vaccine may be attributed to the immune-related gene profile expressed in lymphocytes. Due to its plant origin and due to being much cheaper than imported mineral oil ISA 206, SO-VE-GS deserves further study in relation to vaccines used in food animals.