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Wongnak P, Schilling WHK, Jittamala P, Boyd S, Luvira V, Siripoon T, Ngamprasertchai T, Batty EM, Singh S, Kouhathong J, Pagornrat W, Khanthagan P, Hanboonkunupakarn B, Poovorawan K, Mayxay M, Chotivanich K, Imwong M, Pukrittayakamee S, Ashley EA, Dondorp AM, Day NPJ, Teixeira MM, Piyaphanee W, Phumratanaprapin W, White NJ, Watson JA. Temporal changes in SARS-CoV-2 clearance kinetics and the optimal design of antiviral pharmacodynamic studies: an individual patient data meta-analysis of a randomised, controlled, adaptive platform study (PLATCOV). Lancet Infect Dis 2024:S1473-3099(24)00183-X. [PMID: 38677300 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00183-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2024] [Revised: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/29/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Effective antiviral drugs prevent hospitalisation and death from COVID-19. Antiviral efficacy can be efficiently assessed in vivo by measuring rates of SARS-CoV-2 clearance estimated from serial viral genome densities quantitated in nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab eluates. We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of unblinded arms in the PLATCOV platform trial to characterise changes in viral clearance kinetics and infer optimal design and interpretation of antiviral pharmacometric evaluations. METHODS Serial viral density data were analysed from symptomatic, previously healthy, adult patients (within 4 days of symptom onset) enrolled in a large multicentre, randomised, adaptive, pharmacodynamic, platform trial (PLATCOV) comparing antiviral interventions for SARS-CoV-2. Viral clearance rates over 1 week were estimated under a hierarchical Bayesian linear model with B-splines used to characterise temporal changes in enrolment viral densities and clearance rates. Bootstrap re-sampling was used to assess the optimal duration of follow-up for pharmacometric assessment, where optimal was defined as maximising the expected Z score when comparing effective antivirals with no treatment. PLATCOV is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05041907. FINDINGS Between Sept 29, 2021, and Oct 20, 2023, 1262 patients were randomly assigned in the PLATCOV trial. Unblinded data were available from 800 patients (who provided 16 818 oropharyngeal viral quantitative PCR [qPCR] measurements), of whom 504 (63%) were female. 783 (98%) patients had received at least one vaccine dose and 703 (88%) were fully vaccinated. SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance was biphasic (bi-exponential). The first phase (α) was accelerated by effective interventions. For all the effective interventions studied, maximum discriminative power (maximum expected Z score) was obtained when evaluating serial data from the first 5 days after enrolment. Over the 2-year period studied, median viral clearance half-lives estimated over 7 days shortened from 16·6 h (IQR 15·3 to 18·2) in September, 2021, to 9·2 h (8·0 to 10·6) in October, 2023, in patients receiving no antiviral drugs, equivalent to a relative reduction of 44% (95% credible interval [CrI] 19 to 64). A parallel reduction in viral clearance half-lives over time was observed in patients receiving antiviral drugs. For example, in the 158 patients assigned to ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (3380 qPCR measurements), the median viral clearance half-life reduced from 6·4 h (IQR 5·7 to 7·3) in June, 2022, to 4·8 h (4·2 to 5·5) in October, 2023, a relative reduction of 26% (95% CrI -4 to 42). INTERPRETATION SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance kinetics in symptomatic, vaccinated individuals accelerated substantially over 2 years of the pandemic, necessitating a change to how new SARS-CoV-2 antivirals are compared (ie, shortening the period of pharmacodynamic assessment). As of writing (October, 2023), antiviral efficacy in COVID-19 can be efficiently assessed in vivo using serial qPCRs from duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily for 5 days after drug administration. FUNDING Wellcome Trust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Phrutsamon Wongnak
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - William H K Schilling
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Podjanee Jittamala
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Department of Tropical Hygiene, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Simon Boyd
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Viravarn Luvira
- Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Tanaya Siripoon
- Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | - Elizabeth M Batty
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Shivani Singh
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Jindarat Kouhathong
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Watcharee Pagornrat
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Patpannee Khanthagan
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Borimas Hanboonkunupakarn
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Kittiyod Poovorawan
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Mayfong Mayxay
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Trust Research Unit, Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Laos; Institute for Research and Education Development, University of Health Sciences, Vientiane, Laos
| | - Kesinee Chotivanich
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Mallika Imwong
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Department of Molecular Tropical Medicine and Genetics, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Sasithon Pukrittayakamee
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Elizabeth A Ashley
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Trust Research Unit, Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Laos
| | - Arjen M Dondorp
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Nicholas P J Day
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Mauro M Teixeira
- Clinical Research Unit, Center for Advanced and Innovative Therapies, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | | | | | - Nicholas J White
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - James A Watson
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
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Kanankege KS, Errecaborde KM, Wiratsudakul A, Wongnak P, Yoopatthanawong C, Thanapongtharm W, Alvarez J, Perez A. Identifying high-risk areas for dog-mediated rabies using Bayesian spatial regression. One Health 2022; 15:100411. [PMID: 36277110 PMCID: PMC9582562 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100411] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Revised: 06/20/2022] [Accepted: 06/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite ongoing control efforts, rabies remains an endemic zoonotic disease in many countries. Determining high-risk areas and the space-time patterns of rabies spread, as it relates to epidemiologically important factors, can support policymakers and program managers alike to develop evidence-based targeted surveillance and control programs. In this One Health approach which selected Thailand as the example site, the location-based risk of contracting dog-mediated rabies by both human and animal populations was quantified using a Bayesian spatial regression model. Specifically, a conditional autoregressive (CAR) Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression was fitted to the reported human and animal rabies case counts of each district, from the 2012–2017 period. The human population was used as an offset. The epidemiologically important factors hypothesized as risk modifiers and therefore tested as predictors included: number of dog bites/attacks, the population of dogs and cats, number of Buddhist temples, garbage dumps, animal vaccination, post-exposure prophylaxis, poverty, and shared administrative borders. Disparate sources of data were used to improve the estimated associations and predictions. Model performance was assessed using cross-validation. Results suggested that accounting for the association between human and animal rabies with number of dog bites/attacks, number of owned and un-owned dogs; shared country borders, number of Buddhist temples, poverty levels, and accounting for spatial dependence between districts, may help to predict the risk districts for dog-mediated rabies in Thailand. The fitted values of the spatial regression were mapped to illustrate the risk of dog-mediated rabies. The cross-validation indicated an adequate performance of the spatial regression model (AUC = 0.81), suggesting that had this spatial regression approach been used to identify districts at risk in 2015, the cases reported in 2016/17 would have been predicted with model sensitivity and specificity of 0.71 and 0.80, respectively. While active surveillance is ideal, this approach of using multiple data sources to improve risk estimation may inform current rabies surveillance and control efforts including determining rabies-free zones, and the roll-out of human post-exposure prophylaxis and anti-rabies vaccines for animals in determining high-risk areas. Bayesian spatial regression was used to quantify location-based risk of dog-mediated rabies Available and publicly accessible data from disparate sources were gathered Risk was estimated using the association between Risk estimates were compared over time to determine the prediction ability Study suggests while active surveillance is ideal, using multiple data sources may improve risk estimation
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Wiratsudakul A, Wongnak P, Thanapongtharm W. Emerging infectious diseases may spread across pig trade networks in Thailand once introduced: a network analysis approach. Trop Anim Health Prod 2022; 54:209. [PMID: 35687155 DOI: 10.1007/s11250-022-03205-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
In Thailand, pork is one of the most consumed meats nationwide. Pig farming is hence an important business in the country. However, 95% of the farms were considered smallholders raising only 50 pigs or less. With limited budgets and resources, the biosecurity level in these farms is relatively low. Pig movements have been previously identified as a risk factor in the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, the present study aimed to explicitly analyze the pig movement network structure and assess its vulnerability to the spread of emerging diseases in Thailand. We used official electronic records of nationwide pig movements throughout the year 2021 to construct a directed weighted one-mode network. Degree centrality, degree distribution, connected components, network community, and modularity were measured to explore the network architectures and properties. In this network, 484,483 pig movements were captured. In which, 379,948 (78.42%) were moved toward slaughterhouses and hence excluded from further analyses. From the remaining links, we suggested that the pig movement network in Thailand was vulnerable to the spread of emerging infectious diseases. Within the network, we found a strongly connected component (SCC) connecting 1044 subdistricts (38.6% of the nodes), a giant weakly connected component (GWCC) covering 98.2% of the nodes (2654/2704), and inter-regional communities with overall network modularity of 0.68. The disease may rapidly spread throughout the country. A better understanding of the nationwide pig movement networks is helpful in tailoring control interventions to cope with the newly emerged diseases once introduced.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anuwat Wiratsudakul
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Public Health and the Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand.
| | - Phrutsamon Wongnak
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy-l'Etoile, France.,Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France
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Wongnak P, Bord S, Jacquot M, Agoulon A, Beugnet F, Bournez L, Cèbe N, Chevalier A, Cosson JF, Dambrine N, Hoch T, Huard F, Korboulewsky N, Lebert I, Madouasse A, Mårell A, Moutailler S, Plantard O, Pollet T, Poux V, René-Martellet M, Vayssier-Taussat M, Verheyden H, Vourc'h G, Chalvet-Monfray K. Meteorological and climatic variables predict the phenology of Ixodes ricinus nymph activity in France, accounting for habitat heterogeneity. Sci Rep 2022; 12:7833. [PMID: 35552424 PMCID: PMC9098447 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-11479-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2021] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Ixodes ricinus ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) are the most important vector for Lyme borreliosis in Europe. As climate change might affect their distributions and activities, this study aimed to determine the effects of environmental factors, i.e., meteorological, bioclimatic, and habitat characteristics on host-seeking (questing) activity of I. ricinus nymphs, an important stage in disease transmissions, across diverse climatic types in France over 8 years. Questing activity was observed using a repeated removal sampling with a cloth-dragging technique in 11 sampling sites from 7 tick observatories from 2014 to 2021 at approximately 1-month intervals, involving 631 sampling campaigns. Three phenological patterns were observed, potentially following a climatic gradient. The mixed-effects negative binomial regression revealed that observed nymph counts were driven by different interval-average meteorological variables, including 1-month moving average temperature, previous 3-to-6-month moving average temperature, and 6-month moving average minimum relative humidity. The interaction effects indicated that the phenology in colder climates peaked differently from that of warmer climates. Also, land cover characteristics that support the highest baseline abundance were moderate forest fragmentation with transition borders with agricultural areas. Finally, our model could potentially be used to predict seasonal human-tick exposure risks in France that could contribute to mitigating Lyme borreliosis risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Phrutsamon Wongnak
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France
| | - Séverine Bord
- Université Paris-Saclay, AgroParisTech, INRAE, UMR MIA-Paris, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Maude Jacquot
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France
- Ifremer, RBE-SGMM-LGPMM, 17390, La Tremblade, France
| | | | - Frédéric Beugnet
- Global Technical Services, Boehringer-Ingelheim Animal Health, 69007, Lyon, France
| | - Laure Bournez
- Nancy Laboratory for Rabies and Wildlife, The French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), 54220, Malzéville, France
| | - Nicolas Cèbe
- Université de Toulouse, INRAE, UR CEFS, 31326, Castanet-Tolosan, France
- LTSER ZA PYRénées GARonne, 31326, Auzeville-Tolosane, France
| | | | | | - Naïma Dambrine
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France
| | - Thierry Hoch
- INRAE, Oniris, UMR BIOEPAR, 44300, Nantes, France
| | | | | | - Isabelle Lebert
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France
| | | | | | - Sara Moutailler
- ANSES, ENVA, INRAE, UMR 956 BIPAR, 94701, Maisons-Alfort, France
| | | | - Thomas Pollet
- ANSES, ENVA, INRAE, UMR 956 BIPAR, 94701, Maisons-Alfort, France
- INRAE, CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 34398, Montpellier, France
| | - Valérie Poux
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France
| | - Magalie René-Martellet
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France
| | | | - Hélène Verheyden
- Université de Toulouse, INRAE, UR CEFS, 31326, Castanet-Tolosan, France
- LTSER ZA PYRénées GARonne, 31326, Auzeville-Tolosane, France
| | - Gwenaël Vourc'h
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France
| | - Karine Chalvet-Monfray
- Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France.
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France.
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5
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Jacob CG, Thuy-Nhien N, Mayxay M, Maude RJ, Quang HH, Hongvanthong B, Vanisaveth V, Ngo Duc T, Rekol H, van der Pluijm R, von Seidlein L, Fairhurst R, Nosten F, Hossain MA, Park N, Goodwin S, Ringwald P, Chindavongsa K, Newton P, Ashley E, Phalivong S, Maude R, Leang R, Huch C, Dong LT, Nguyen KT, Nhat TM, Hien TT, Nguyen H, Zdrojewski N, Canavati S, Sayeed AA, Uddin D, Buckee C, Fanello CI, Onyamboko M, Peto T, Tripura R, Amaratunga C, Myint Thu A, Delmas G, Landier J, Parker DM, Chau NH, Lek D, Suon S, Callery J, Jittamala P, Hanboonkunupakarn B, Pukrittayakamee S, Phyo AP, Smithuis F, Lin K, Thant M, Hlaing TM, Satpathi P, Satpathi S, Behera PK, Tripura A, Baidya S, Valecha N, Anvikar AR, Ul Islam A, Faiz A, Kunasol C, Drury E, Kekre M, Ali M, Love K, Rajatileka S, Jeffreys AE, Rowlands K, Hubbart CS, Dhorda M, Vongpromek R, Kotanan N, Wongnak P, Almagro Garcia J, Pearson RD, Ariani CV, Chookajorn T, Malangone C, Nguyen T, Stalker J, Jeffery B, Keatley J, Johnson KJ, Muddyman D, Chan XHS, Sillitoe J, Amato R, Simpson V, Gonçalves S, Rockett K, Day NP, Dondorp AM, Kwiatkowski DP, Miotto O. Genetic surveillance in the Greater Mekong subregion and South Asia to support malaria control and elimination. eLife 2021; 10:e62997. [PMID: 34372970 PMCID: PMC8354633 DOI: 10.7554/elife.62997] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Background National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs) currently make limited use of parasite genetic data. We have developed GenRe-Mekong, a platform for genetic surveillance of malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) that enables NMCPs to implement large-scale surveillance projects by integrating simple sample collection procedures in routine public health procedures. Methods Samples from symptomatic patients are processed by SpotMalaria, a high-throughput system that produces a comprehensive set of genotypes comprising several drug resistance markers, species markers and a genomic barcode. GenRe-Mekong delivers Genetic Report Cards, a compendium of genotypes and phenotype predictions used to map prevalence of resistance to multiple drugs. Results GenRe-Mekong has worked with NMCPs and research projects in eight countries, processing 9623 samples from clinical cases. Monitoring resistance markers has been valuable for tracking the rapid spread of parasites resistant to the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine combination therapy. In Vietnam and Laos, GenRe-Mekong data have provided novel knowledge about the spread of these resistant strains into previously unaffected provinces, informing decision-making by NMCPs. Conclusions GenRe-Mekong provides detailed knowledge about drug resistance at a local level, and facilitates data sharing at a regional level, enabling cross-border resistance monitoring and providing the public health community with valuable insights. The project provides a rich open data resource to benefit the entire malaria community. Funding The GenRe-Mekong project is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP11188166, OPP1204268). Genotyping and sequencing were funded by the Wellcome Trust (098051, 206194, 203141, 090770, 204911, 106698/B/14/Z) and Medical Research Council (G0600718). A proportion of samples were collected with the support of the UK Department for International Development (201900, M006212), and Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Mayfong Mayxay
- Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Research Unit (LOMWRU), Microbiology Laboratory, Mahosot HospitalVientianeLao People's Democratic Republic
- Institute of Research and Education Development (IRED), University of Health Sciences, Ministry of HealthVientianeLao People's Democratic Republic
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Richard J Maude
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
- Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard UniversityBostonUnited States
| | - Huynh Hong Quang
- Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology (IMPE-QN)Quy NhonViet Nam
| | - Bouasy Hongvanthong
- Centre of Malariology, Parasitology, and EntomologyVientianeLao People's Democratic Republic
| | - Viengxay Vanisaveth
- Centre of Malariology, Parasitology, and EntomologyVientianeLao People's Democratic Republic
| | - Thang Ngo Duc
- National Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology (NIMPE)HanoiViet Nam
| | - Huy Rekol
- National Center for Parasitology, Entomology, and Malaria ControlPhnom PenhCambodia
| | - Rob van der Pluijm
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Lorenz von Seidlein
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Rick Fairhurst
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of HealthRockvilleUnited States
| | - François Nosten
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Shoklo Malaria Research UnitMae SotThailand
| | | | - Naomi Park
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
| | | | | | | | - Paul Newton
- Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Research Unit (LOMWRU), Microbiology Laboratory, Mahosot HospitalVientianeLao People's Democratic Republic
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Elizabeth Ashley
- Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Research Unit (LOMWRU), Microbiology Laboratory, Mahosot HospitalVientianeLao People's Democratic Republic
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Sonexay Phalivong
- Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Research Unit (LOMWRU), Microbiology Laboratory, Mahosot HospitalVientianeLao People's Democratic Republic
| | - Rapeephan Maude
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
- Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Rithea Leang
- National Center for Parasitology, Entomology, and Malaria ControlPhnom PenhCambodia
| | - Cheah Huch
- National Center for Parasitology, Entomology, and Malaria ControlPhnom PenhCambodia
| | - Le Thanh Dong
- Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology (IMPEHCM)Ho Chi Minh CityViet Nam
| | - Kim-Tuyen Nguyen
- Oxford University Clinical Research UnitHo Chi Minh CityViet Nam
| | - Tran Minh Nhat
- Oxford University Clinical Research UnitHo Chi Minh CityViet Nam
| | - Tran Tinh Hien
- Oxford University Clinical Research UnitHo Chi Minh CityViet Nam
| | | | | | | | | | - Didar Uddin
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Caroline Buckee
- Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard UniversityBostonUnited States
| | - Caterina I Fanello
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Marie Onyamboko
- Kinshasa School of Public Health, University of KinshasaKinshasaDemocratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Thomas Peto
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Rupam Tripura
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Chanaki Amaratunga
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of HealthRockvilleUnited States
| | - Aung Myint Thu
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Shoklo Malaria Research UnitMae SotThailand
| | - Gilles Delmas
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Shoklo Malaria Research UnitMae SotThailand
| | - Jordi Landier
- Shoklo Malaria Research UnitMae SotThailand
- Aix-Marseille Université, INSERM, IRD, SESSTIM, Aix Marseille Institute of Public Health, ISSPAMMarseilleFrance
| | - Daniel M Parker
- Shoklo Malaria Research UnitMae SotThailand
- Susan and Henry Samueli College of Health Sciences, University of California, IrvineIrvineUnited States
| | | | - Dysoley Lek
- National Center for Parasitology, Entomology, and Malaria ControlPhnom PenhCambodia
| | - Seila Suon
- National Center for Parasitology, Entomology, and Malaria ControlPhnom PenhCambodia
| | - James Callery
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | | | | | - Sasithon Pukrittayakamee
- Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
- The Royal Society of ThailandBangkokThailand
| | - Aung Pyae Phyo
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Myanmar-Oxford Clinical Research UnitYangonMyanmar
| | - Frank Smithuis
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Myanmar-Oxford Clinical Research UnitYangonMyanmar
| | - Khin Lin
- Department of Medical ResearchPyin Oo LwinMyanmar
| | - Myo Thant
- Defence Services Medical Research CentreYangonMyanmar
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Neena Valecha
- National Institute of Malaria Research, Indian Council of Medical ResearchNew DelhiIndia
| | - Anupkumar R Anvikar
- National Institute of Malaria Research, Indian Council of Medical ResearchNew DelhiIndia
| | | | - Abul Faiz
- Malaria Research Group and Dev Care FoundationDhakaBangladesh
| | - Chanon Kunasol
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | | | - Mihir Kekre
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
| | - Mozam Ali
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
| | - Katie Love
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Anna E Jeffreys
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Kate Rowlands
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Christina S Hubbart
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Mehul Dhorda
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
- Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN), Asia Regional CentreBangkokThailand
| | - Ranitha Vongpromek
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
- Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN), Asia Regional CentreBangkokThailand
| | - Namfon Kotanan
- Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Phrutsamon Wongnak
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Jacob Almagro Garcia
- MRC Centre for Genomics and Global Health, Big Data Institute, Oxford UniversityOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Richard D Pearson
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Genomics and Global Health, Big Data Institute, Oxford UniversityOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | | | | | | | - T Nguyen
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
| | - Jim Stalker
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
| | - Ben Jeffery
- MRC Centre for Genomics and Global Health, Big Data Institute, Oxford UniversityOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Kimberly J Johnson
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Genomics and Global Health, Big Data Institute, Oxford UniversityOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Xin Hui S Chan
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | | | | | - Victoria Simpson
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Genomics and Global Health, Big Data Institute, Oxford UniversityOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Kirk Rockett
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Nicholas P Day
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Arjen M Dondorp
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Dominic P Kwiatkowski
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Genomics and Global Health, Big Data Institute, Oxford UniversityOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Olivo Miotto
- Wellcome Sanger InstituteHinxtonUnited Kingdom
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Mahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
- MRC Centre for Genomics and Global Health, Big Data Institute, Oxford UniversityOxfordUnited Kingdom
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Wongnak P, Wiratsudakul A, Nuanualsuwan S. A risk assessment of pathogenic Streptococcus suis in pork supply chains and markets in Thailand. Food Control 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.foodcont.2020.107432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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7
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Wongnak P, Thanapongtharm W, Kusakunniran W, Karnjanapreechakorn S, Sutassananon K, Kalpravidh W, Wongsathapornchai K, Wiratsudakul A. A 'what-if' scenario: Nipah virus attacks pig trade chains in Thailand. BMC Vet Res 2020; 16:300. [PMID: 32838786 PMCID: PMC7446211 DOI: 10.1186/s12917-020-02502-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2019] [Accepted: 07/29/2020] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Nipah virus (NiV) is a fatal zoonotic agent that was first identified amongst pig farmers in Malaysia in 1998, in an outbreak that resulted in 105 fatal human cases. That epidemic arose from a chain of infection, initiating from bats to pigs, and which then spilled over from pigs to humans. In Thailand, bat-pig-human communities can be observed across the country, particularly in the central plain. The present study therefore aimed to identify high-risk areas for potential NiV outbreaks and to model how the virus is likely to spread. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and weighted linear combination (WLC) were employed to produce the NiV risk map. The map was then overlaid with the nationwide pig movement network to identify the index subdistricts in which NiV may emerge. Subsequently, susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) modeling was used to simulate NiV spread within each subdistrict, and network modeling was used to illustrate how the virus disperses across subdistricts. Results Based on the MCDA and pig movement data, 14 index subdistricts with a high-risk of NiV emergence were identified. We found in our infectious network modeling that the infected subdistricts clustered in, or close to the central plain, within a range of 171 km from the source subdistricts. However, the virus may travel as far as 528.5 km (R0 = 5). Conclusions In conclusion, the risk of NiV dissemination through pig movement networks in Thailand is low but not negligible. The risk areas identified in our study can help the veterinary authority to allocate financial and human resources to where preventive strategies, such as pig farm regionalization, are required and to contain outbreaks in a timely fashion once they occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- Phrutsamon Wongnak
- Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 63122, Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France.,Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, 69280, Marcy l'Etoile, France
| | | | - Worapan Kusakunniran
- Faculty of Information and Communication Technology, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
| | | | - Krittanat Sutassananon
- Faculty of Information and Communication Technology, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
| | - Wantanee Kalpravidh
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD), Rome, Italy
| | - Kachen Wongsathapornchai
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Anuwat Wiratsudakul
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Public Health, and the Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand.
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