A tool for cost-effectiveness analysis of field scale sediment-bound phosphorus mitigation measures and application to analysis of spatial and temporal targeting in the Lunan Water catchment, Scotland

Reducing phosphorus losses from agricultural land to surface water

Phosphorus (P) enrichment of water impairs its quality by stimulating algal growth and eutrophication, affecting an estimated 1.7 billion people. Remediation costs are substantial, estimated at $1 billion annually in Europe and $2.4 billion in the USA. Agricultural intensification over the past 50 years has increased P use brought into the system from mined fertiliser sources. This has enriched soil P concentrations and loss to surface waters via pathways such as surface runoff and subsurface flow, which are influenced by precipitation, slope, and farming practices. Effective mitigation of losses involves managing P sources, mobilisation, and transport/delivery mechanisms. The cost-effectiveness of mitigation actions can be improved if they are targeted to critical source areas (CSAs), which are small zones that disproportionately contribute to P loss. While targeting CSAs works well in areas with variable topography, flatter landscapes require managing legacy sources, such as enriched soil P to prevent P losses.

Towards nutrient neutrality: A review of agricultural runoff mitigation strategies and the development of a decision-making framework

Nutrient runoff from agriculture practices poses a significant risk to waterway health and can have long-lasting and complex implications for the environment, ecosystems, and the human population. Consequently, a systematic quantitative literature review (SQLR) was conducted to identify different nutrient runoff mitigation strategies (NRMS) that are currently used globally to prevent or remediate environmental damage from excessive agricultural fertilisation. Empirical data on the outcomes from various NRMS from the reviewed studies were used to evaluate the strategies based on environmental benefit, implementation cost, and practicality perspectives. An overall assessment of the feasibility of NRMS was determined, and a macro-level assessment of the reported barriers preventing the widespread implementation of NRMS was provided. Identified research gaps and issues included a dearth of literature covering nutrient runoff mitigation, scepticism from agricultural landowners to voluntarily adopt policy without substantial incentives, and a general lack of cost/benefit analyses, including an understanding of the uncertainty associated with NRMS that can inform decision-makers about effective and efficient strategies for different site situations. Synthesis of SQLR data facilitated the development of a comprehensive nutrient runoff decision-making framework which addresses present limitations and provides site-specific NRMS recommendations for policymakers to implement.

Sediment and Nutrient Retention in Ponds on an Agricultural Stream: Evaluating Effectiveness for Diffuse Pollution Mitigation

The creation of ponds and wetlands has the potential to alleviate stream water quality impairment in catchments affected by diffuse agricultural pollution. Understanding the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of these features is important in determining their effectiveness at mitigating pollution. This study investigated sediment and nutrient retention in three connected (on-line) ponds on a lowland headwater stream by sampling inflowing and outflowing concentrations during base and storm flows. Sediment trapping devices were used to quantify sediment and phosphorus accumulations within ponds over approximately monthly periods. The organic matter content and particle size composition of accumulated sediment were also measured. The ponds retained dissolved nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus and suspended solids during baseflows. During small to moderate storm events, some ponds were able to reduce peak concentrations and loads of suspended solids and phosphorus; however, during large magnitude events, resuspension of deposited sediment resulted in net loss. Ponds filtered out larger particles most effectively. Between August 2019 and March 2020, the ponds accumulated 0.306 t ha−1 sediment from the 30 ha contributing area. During this period, total sediment accumulations in ponds were estimated to equal 7.6% of the suspended flux leaving the 340 ha catchment downstream. This study demonstrates the complexity of pollutant retention dynamics in on-line ponds and highlights how their effectiveness can be influenced by the timing and magnitude of events.

Nutrient mitigation under the impact of climate and land-use changes: A hydro-economic approach to participatory catchment management

Excessive nutrient loadings into rivers are a well-known ecological problem. Implemented mitigation measures should ideally be cost-effective, but perfectly ranking alternative nutrient mitigation measures according to cost-effectiveness is a difficult methodological challenge. Furthermore, a particularly practical challenge is that cost-effective measures are not necessarily favoured by local stakeholders, and this may impede their successful implementation in practice. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures using a methodology that includes a participatory process and social learning to ensure their successful implementation. By combining cost data, hydrological modelling and a bottom-up approach for three different European catchment areas (the Latvian Berze, the Swedish Helge and the German Selke rivers), the cost-effectiveness of 16 nutrient mitigation measures were analysed under current conditions as well as under selected scenarios for future climate and land-use changes. Fertiliser reduction, wetlands, contour ploughing and municipal wastewater treatment plants are the measures that remove nutrients with the highest cost-effectiveness in the respective case study context. However, the results suggest that the cost-effectiveness of measures not only depends on their design, specific location and the conditions of the surrounding area, but is also affected by the future changes the area may be exposed to. Climate and land-use changes do not only affect the cost-effectiveness of measures, but also shape the overall nutrient loads and potential target levels in a catchment.

An agent-based model that simulates the spatio-temporal dynamics of sources and transfer mechanisms contributing faecal indicator organisms to streams. Part 1: Background and model description

A new Model for the Agent-based simulation of Faecal Indicator Organisms (MAFIO) is developed that attempts to overcome limitations in existing faecal indicator organism (FIO) models arising from coarse spatial discretisations and poorly-constrained hydrological processes. MAFIO is a spatially-distributed, process-based model presently designed to simulate the fate and transport of agents representing FIOs shed by livestock at the sub-field scale in small (<10 km²) agricultural catchments. Specifically, FIO loading, die-off, detachment, surface routing, seepage and channel routing are modelled on a regular spatial grid. Central to MAFIO is that hydrological transfer mechanisms are simulated based on a hydrological environment generated by an external model for which it is possible to robustly determine the accuracy of simulated catchment hydrological functioning. The spatially-distributed, tracer-aided ecohydrological model EcH₂O-iso is highlighted as a possible hydrological environment generator. The present paper provides a rationale for and description of MAFIO, whilst a companion paper applies the model in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland to provide a proof-of-concept.

An agent-based model that simulates the spatio-temporal dynamics of sources and transfer mechanisms contributing faecal indicator organisms to streams. Part 2: Application to a small agricultural catchment

The new Model for the Agent-based simulation of Faecal Indicator Organisms (MAFIO) is applied to a small (0.42 km²) Scottish agricultural catchment to simulate the dynamics of E. coli arising from sheep and cattle farming, in order to provide a proof-of-concept. The hydrological environment for MAFIO was simulated by the "best" ensemble run of the tracer-aided ecohydrological model EcH₂O-iso, obtained through multi-criteria calibration to stream discharge (MAE: 1.37 L s^-1) and spatially-distributed stable isotope data (MAE: 1.14-3.02‰) for the period April-December 2017. MAFIO was then applied for the period June-August for which twice-weekly E. coli loads were quantified at up to three sites along the stream. Performance in simulating these data suggested the model has skill in capturing the transfer of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) from livestock to streams via the processes of direct deposition, transport in overland flow and seepage from areas of degraded soil. Furthermore, its agent-based structure allowed source areas, transfer mechanisms and host animals contributing FIOs to the stream to be quantified. Such information is likely to have substantial value in the context of designing and spatially-targeting mitigation measures against impaired microbial water quality. This study also revealed, however, that avenues exist for improving process conceptualisation in MAFIO (e.g. to include FIO contributions from wildlife) and highlighted the need to quantitatively assess how uncertainty in the spatial extent of surface flow paths in the simulated hydrological environment may affect FIO simulations. Despite the consequent status of MAFIO as a research-level model, its encouraging performance in this proof-of-concept study suggests the model has significant potential for eventual incorporation into decision support frameworks.

Global mapping of freshwater nutrient enrichment and periphyton growth potential

Periphyton (viz. algal) growth in many freshwater systems is associated with severe eutrophication that can impair productive and recreational use of water by billions of people. However, there has been limited analysis of periphyton growth at a global level. To predict where nutrient over-enrichment and undesirable periphyton growth occurs, we combined several databases to model and map global dissolved and total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations, climatic and catchment characteristics for up to 1406 larger rivers that were analysed between 1990 and 2016. We predict that 31% of the global landmass contained catchments may exhibit undesirable levels of periphyton growth. Almost three-quarters (76%) of undesirable periphyton growth was caused by P-enrichment and mapped to catchments dominated by agricultural land in North and South America and Europe containing 1.7B people. In contrast, undesirable periphyton growth due to N-enrichment was mapped to parts of North Africa and parts of the Middle East and India affecting 280 M people. The findings of this global modelling approach can be used by landowners and policy makers to better target investment and actions at finer spatial scales to remediate poor water quality owing to periphyton growth.

An Appraisal of Potential for Sowing of Nasturtium officinale Into Streams to Mitigate Nutrient Pollution in Eastern Scotland

This study examines a farmer-led initiative to sow watercress (Nasturtium officinale) in field ditches. The objective was to assess the potential of this practice to mitigate summer nutrient loads in rivers. Two ditches—one seeded, the other unseeded—on a mixed-livestock farm in Eastern Scotland were monitored during the spring-summer of 2014–2016. The un-replicated trial design limited statistical analysis. However, changes in N and P concentrations along the two ditches were measured. In the watercress-seeded ditch, N retention of 0.092 g/m²/d (p < 0.001, SE = 0.020) and P retention of 0.0092 g/m²/d (p = 0.001, SE = 0.0028) occurred, while total organic C in the water increased along the ditch. Retention was close to zero for the unseeded ditch. The seeded ditch was also found to have more dry matter production and lower stream temperature. The impact of plastic covering (to increase spring temperature) on vegetation and nutrient removal was also assessed on replicate 5-m sections of the ditches. No significant impact on N and P removal was found; however, the release of C increased significantly in the plastic-covered sections. The rise in air temperature (up to > 30 °C) promoted a greater growth of opportunist species (nettle (Urtica), rush (Juncus), and grasses. These observations were used to make a simple assessment of the potential catchment scale impact of seeding watercress into first and second order streams in the nearby Lunan Water catchment. It was concluded that this could make a significant contribution to the reduction of nutrient loads.

Water for all: Towards an integrated approach to wetland conservation and flood risk reduction in a lowland catchment in Scotland

Strategies for sustainable water resources management require integration of hydrological, ecological and socio-economic concerns. The "Water for all" project has sought to develop a multi-disciplinary science case for innovative management of water levels and flows in a lowland catchment in Scotland. Water demands of arable agriculture, protection from flood risk and conservation needs of lowland mesotrophic wetlands needed to be considered. Water management strategy focused on the outlet zone of Balgavies lake in Eastern Scotland, where the Lunan Water discharges into a partially confined common channel (lade). Water releases to a mill, to the downstream river, and to floodplain wetlands (Chapel Mires) are partially controlled by an existing weir. Based on observations of management of this weir, we postulated that upgrading hydraulic management in this zone could reduce upstream flood risk, help protect mesotrophic wetlands and facilitate downstream water supply at low flows. We considered potential for: (a) installing a remotely operated tilting weir, for improved management of release and routing of flows from the common lade; (b) dredging of the common lade in combination or instead of the tilting weir. Rapid ecological assessment and mixing analysis of the Lunan Water with waters in Chapel Mires showed a gradient of trophic status across the wetlands linked to impact of river-borne nutrients. Stage-discharge relationships, derived from steady-state approximations of the in-channel hydraulics, showed that the proposed tilting weir had potential to divert seasonal nutrient rich water from the upstream Lake away from Chapel Mires. Significant impact of the proposed weir on upstream flood risk was not demonstrated, but carrying out dredging of the channel reduced the current observed probability of upstream flooding. The proposed weir could help to maintain these dredging benefits. Survey and interviews with catchment stakeholders and residents showed constructive interest in the scheme, with half of the respondents willing to pay to support its implementation. The survey also revealed concerns about the proposed project, especially its long-term governance. The lessons learned have wider relevance to development of an integrated approach to water ecosystem services provision, especially where benefits are uncertain and thinly spread across a range of users.

Assessing the potential impacts of a revised set of on-farm nutrient and sediment 'basic' control measures for reducing agricultural diffuse pollution across England

The need for improved abatement of agricultural diffuse water pollution represents cause for concern throughout the world. A critical aspect in the design of on-farm intervention programmes concerns the potential technical cost-effectiveness of packages of control measures. The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD) calls for Programmes of Measures (PoMs) to protect freshwater environments and these comprise 'basic' (mandatory) and 'supplementary' (incentivised) options. Recent work has used measure review, elicitation of stakeholder attitudes and a process-based modelling framework to identify a new alternative set of 'basic' agricultural sector control measures for nutrient and sediment abatement across England. Following an initial scientific review of 708 measures, 90 were identified for further consideration at an industry workshop and 63 had industry support. Optimisation modelling was undertaken to identify a shortlist of measures using the Demonstration Test Catchments as sentinel agricultural landscapes. Optimisation selected 12 measures relevant to livestock or arable systems. Model simulations of 95% implementation of these 12 candidate 'basic' measures, in addition to business-as-usual, suggested reductions in the national agricultural nitrate load of 2.5%, whilst corresponding reductions in phosphorus and sediment were 11.9% and 5.6%, respectively. The total cost of applying the candidate 'basic' measures across the whole of England was estimated to be £450 million per annum, which is equivalent to £52 per hectare of agricultural land. This work contributed to a public consultation in 2016.

A catchment-scale model to predict spatial and temporal burden of E. coli on pasture from grazing livestock

Effective management of diffuse microbial water pollution from agriculture requires a fundamental understanding of how spatial patterns of microbial pollutants, e.g. E. coli, vary over time at the landscape scale. The aim of this study was to apply the Visualising Pathogen &Environmental Risk (ViPER) model, developed to predict E. coli burden on agricultural land, in a spatially distributed manner to two contrasting catchments in order to map and understand changes in E. coli burden contributed to land from grazing livestock. The model was applied to the River Ayr and Lunan Water catchments, with significant correlations observed between area of improved grassland and the maximum total E. coli per 1km² grid cell (Ayr: r=0.57; p<0.001, Lunan: r=0.32; p<0.001). There was a significant difference in the predicted maximum E. coli burden between seasons in both catchments, with summer and autumn predicted to accrue higher E. coli contributions relative to spring and winter (P<0.001), driven largely by livestock presence. The ViPER model thus describes, at the landscape scale, spatial nuances in the vulnerability of E. coli loading to land as driven by stocking density and livestock grazing regimes. Resulting risk maps therefore provide the underpinning evidence to inform spatially-targeted decision-making with respect to managing sources of E. coli in agricultural environments.