The response of lake area and vegetation cover variations to climate change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the past 30years

Optimization of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization for enhanced forage production and quality of Festuca Krylovianacv. Huanhu artificial grassland in alpine regions

Artificial grasslands of F. kryloviana in the region surrounding Qinghai Lake have been observed to a decline in productivity following three years of establishment. Traditional fertilization practices, aimed at maintaining ecological balance, have predominantly focused on the application of phosphorus. However, it remains unclear whether phosphorus fertilizers offer a superior advantage over nitrogen fertilizers in sustaining productivity. Consequently, from 2017 to 2019, we conducted an experimental to assess the impact of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization on forage yield and quality. We designed with four levels of phosphorus and two levels of nitrogen, resulting in eight distinct fertilizer combinations. Our experimental findings indicate that the degradation of artificial grasslands leads to a shift in the allocation pattern of aboveground biomass. There was a respective decrease of 68.2 % and 62.5 % in the biomass proportions of stems and ears, contrasted by a greater than 200 % increase in the biomass proportion of leaves. The application of nitrogen not only elevated the total aboveground biomass but also promoted a preferential allocation of biomass to stems and leaves, consequently enhancing the forage's crude protein content. Nitrogen fertilization significantly increased aboveground biomass, and crude protein content by 63.21 %, and 6 %, respectively. Phosphorus fertilization's impact varied annually but favored the distribution of biomass to stems and ears. The net photosynthetic rate improved by over 53.12 % with fertilizer application, although the differences among treatments were not statistically significant. The balanced application of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers significantly bolstered the aboveground biomass, ear biomass, stem biomass, leaf biomass, and crude protein content in varying years by 17.25 %-209.83 %, 34.7 %-438.9 %, 25.5 %-250.2 %, 18.4 %-133.3 %, and 10.21 %-25.62 %, respectively. Our analysis revealed that nitrogen-only fertilization exhibited the most optimal fertilizer use efficiency and economic returns. In conclusion, nitrogen fertilization is crucial for sustaining the productivity and quality of F. kryloviana artificial grasslands. The local practice of 75 kg ha-1 phosphorus fertilizer is detrimental to the maintenance of productivity in F. kryloviana artificial grasslands. This study offers valuable insights into the optimization of fertilization strategies for sustainable forage production within alpine regions.

An advanced TSMK-FVC approach combined with Landsat 5/8 imagery for assessing the long-term effects of terrain and climate on vegetation growth

Introduction

As an exceptional geographical entity, the vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) exhibits high sensitivity to climate change. The Baima Snow Mountain National Nature Reserve (BNNR) is located in the south-eastern sector of the QTP, serving as a transition area from sub-tropical evergreen broadleaf forest to high-mountain vegetation. However, there has been limited exploration into predicting the temporal and spatial variability of vegetation cover using anti-interference methods to address outliers in long-term historical data. Additionally, the correlation between these variables and environmental factors in natural forests with complex terrain has rarely been analyzed.

Methods

This study has developed an advanced approach based on TS (Theil-Sen slope estimator) MK (Mann-Kendall test)-FVC (fractional vegetation cover) to accurately evaluate and predict the time and spatial shifts in FVC within the BNNR, utilizing the GEE (Google Earth Engine). The satellite data utilized in this paper consisted of Landsat images spanning from 1986 to2020. By integrating TS and MK methodologies to monitor and assess the FVC trend, the Hurst index was employed to forecast FVC. Furthermore, the association between FVC and topographic factors was evaluated, the partial correlation between FVC and climatic influences was analyzed at the pixel level (30×30m).

Results and discussion

Here are the results of this research: (1) Overall, the FVC of the BNNR exhibits a growth trend, with the mean FVC value increasing from 59.40% in 1986 to 68.67% in 2020. (2) The results based on the TS-MK algorithm showed that the percentage of the area of the study area with an increasing and decreasing trend was 59.03% (significant increase of 28.04%) and 22.13% (significant decrease of 6.42%), respectively. The coupling of the Hurst exponent with the Theil-Sen slope estimator suggests that the majority of regions within the BNNR are projected to sustain an upward trend in FVC in the future. (3) Overlaying the outcomes of TS-MK with the terrain factors revealed that the FVC changes were notably influenced by elevation. The partial correlation analysis between climate factors and vegetation changes indicated that temperature exerts a significant influence on vegetation cover, demonstrating a high spatial correlation.

Wet events increase tree growth recovery after different drought intensities

Understanding the dynamics of tree recovery after drought is critical for predicting the state of tree growth in the context of future climate change. While there has been a great deal of researches showing that drought events can cause numerous significant negative effects on tree growth, the positive effects of post-drought wetting events on tree growth remain unclear. Therefore, we analyzed the effect of wet and dry events on the radial growth of trees in Central Asia using data on the width of tree rings. The results showed that 1) Drought is the main limiting factor for radial growth of trees in Central Asia, and that as the intensity and sensitivity of drought increases, tree resistance decreases and recovery rises, and more frequent droughts reduce tree resistance. 2) Tree radial growth varied significantly with wet and dry conditions, with wet events before and after drought events significantly enhancing tree radial growth. 3) When drought is followed by a wetting event, the relationship between tree resistance and recovery is closer to the "line of full resilience", with a significant increase in recovery, and compensatory growth is more likely to occur. Thus, wetting events have a significant positive effect on tree radial growth and are a key factor in rapid tree growth recovery after drought.

Responses of vegetation cover to hydro-climatic variations in Bosten Lake Watershed, NW China

Amidst the backdrop of global climate change, it is imperative to comprehend the intricate connections among surface water, vegetation, and climatic shifts within watersheds, especially in fragile, arid ecosystems. However, these relationships across various timescales remain unclear. We employed the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method to analyze the multifaceted dynamics of surface water and vegetation in the Bosten Lake Watershed across multiple temporal scales. This analysis has shed light on how these elements interact with climate change, revealing significant insights. From March to October, approximately 14.9-16.8% of the areas with permanent water were susceptible to receding and drying up. Both the annual and monthly values of Bosten Lake's level and area exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, reaching their lowest point in 2013 (1,045.0 m and 906.6 km2, respectively). Approximately 7.7% of vegetated areas showed a significant increase in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). NDVI volatility was observed in 23.4% of vegetated areas, primarily concentrated in the southern part of the study area and near Lake Bosten. Regarding the annual components (6 < T < 24 months), temperature, 3-month cumulative NDVI, and 3-month-leading precipitation exhibited the strongest correlation with changes in water level and surface area. For the interannual components (T≥ 24 months), NDVI, 3-month cumulative precipitation, and 3-month-leading temperature displayed the most robust correlation with alterations in water level and surface area. In both components, NDVI had a negative impact on Bosten Lake's water level and surface area, while temperature and precipitation exerted positive effects. Through comparative analysis, this study reveals the importance of temporal periodicity in developing adaptive strategies for achieving Sustainable Development Goals in dryland watersheds. This study introduces a robust methodology for dissecting trends within scale components of lake level and surface area and links these trends to climate variations and NDVI changes across different temporal scales. The inherent correlations uncovered in this research can serve as valuable guidance for future investigations into surface water dynamics in arid regions.

Spatial and temporal patterns of above- and below- ground biomass over the Tibet Plateau grasslands and their sensitivity to climate change

The sensitivity of grassland above- (AGB, gC m-2) and below-ground biomass (BGB, gC m-2) to climate has been shown to be significant on the Tibetan Plateau, however, the spatial patterns and sensitivity of biomass with altitudinal change needs to be quantitated. In this study, large data sets of AGB and BGB during the peak growth season, and the corresponding geographical and climate conditions in the grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau between 2001 and 2020 were analyzed, and modelled using a Cubist regression trees algorithm. The mean values for AGB and BGB were 61.3 and 1304.3 gC m-2, respectively, for the whole region over the two decades. There was a significant change in spatial AGB of 64.8 % on the Plateau (P < 0.05, with areas where AGB increased being twice as large as areas where AGB decreased), while BGB did not change significantly in majority the of the region (≥ 90.1 %, P > 0.05). In general, the areas where AGB showed positive partial correlations with precipitation were larger than the areas where AGB had positive correlations with temperature (P < 0.05). However, these trends varied depending on the climatic conditions: in the wetter regions, temperature had a greater effect on the size of the areas with positive AGB responses than precipitation (P < 0.05), while precipitation had a greater effect on the size of areas with positive BGB changes than temperature (P < 0.05). In the drier areas, however, precipitation affected the AGB response significantly compared to temperature (P < 0.05), while temperature influenced the BGB response greater than precipitation (P < 0.05). The response and sensitivity of grassland biomass to temperature and precipitation varied according to the altitude of the Plateau: the response and sensitivity were stronger and more sensitive at medium altitudes, and weak at the higher or lower altitudes. Likely, this phenomenon was resulted from the natural selection of plants to maintain the efficient use of resources during un-favourable and stressed conditions for maximum plant development and growth. These findings will help assess the ecological consequences of global climate change for the grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau, particularly in those regions with highly variable altitudes.

Phosphorus release from newly inundated soils and variation in benthic algal nutrient limitation induced by rising water levels of Qinghai Lake, China

The mobilization of internal phosphorus (P) plays a crucial role in transitioning nutrient limitations within lake ecosystems. While previous research has extensively examined P release in littoral zones influenced by fluctuating water levels, there is a paucity of studies addressing the implications of sustained water level rise in this context, particularly as it pertains to nutrient limitations in benthic algae. To address this gap, we conducted an integrated study in Qinghai Lake. In the field sampling and microcosm experiment, we found that P concentrations are elevated in areas subjected to short-term inundation compared to those enduring prolonged inundation, primarily due to the dissolution of sedimentary P fractions. The results of nutrient diffusing substrata (NDS) bioassays indicated that benthic algae in Qinghai Lake displayed either P limitation or NP co-limitation. The transition from P limitation to NP co-limitation suggested that internal P release may serve to ameliorate nutrient limitations in benthic algae. This phenomenon could potentially contribute to the proliferation of Cladophora in the littoral zones of Qinghai Lake, thereby posing long-term implications for the lake's aquatic ecosystem, particularly under conditions of sustained water level rise.

Methylomonadaceae was the active and dominant methanotroph in Tibet lake sediments

Methane (CH4), an important greenhouse gas, significantly impacts the local and global climate. Our study focused on the composition and activity of methanotrophs residing in the lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, a hotspot for climate change research. Based on the field survey, the family Methylomonadaceae had a much higher relative abundance in freshwater lakes than in brackish and saline lakes, accounting for ~92% of total aerobic methanotrophs. Using the microcosm sediment incubation with 13CH4 followed by high throughput sequencing and metagenomic analysis, we further demonstrated that the family Methylomonadaceae was actively oxidizing CH4. Moreover, various methylotrophs, such as the genera Methylotenera and Methylophilus, were detected in the 13C-labeled DNAs, which suggested their participation in CH4-carbon sequential assimilation. The presence of CH4 metabolism, such as the tetrahydromethanopterin and the ribulose monophosphate pathways, was identified in the metagenome-assembled genomes of the family Methylomonadaceae. Furthermore, they had the potential to adapt to oxygen-deficient conditions and utilize multiple electron acceptors, such as metal oxides (Fe3+), nitrate, and nitrite, for survival in the Tibet lakes. Our findings highlighted the predominance of Methylomonadaceae and the associated microbes as active CH4 consumers, potentially regulating the CH4 emissions in the Tibet freshwater lakes. These insights contributed to understanding the plateau carbon cycle and emphasized the significance of methanotrophs in mitigating climate change.

Recent water-level fluctuations, future trends and their eco-environmental impacts on Lake Qinghai

The water level of Lake Qinghai, the largest lake on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, has increased continuously, at an average speed of 0.21 m per year since 2005, causing a rapid expansion of the lake area. We investigated the hydrological processes of Lake Qinghai and the surrounding watershed that have influenced water level and lake area from 1956 to 2019. Relationships among water level, climate change and human activities were also assessed. Water level and lake area were positively correlated with precipitation and runoff into the lake, and negatively correlated with evaporation. Climate change factors including precipitation and runoff were the primary causes of lake level change, whereas human activities, including variation in a human footprint index, land use, and grassland irrigation, were secondary factors. A time series model forecasted that from 2020 to 2050 water levels will increase further by 2.45 m. Although this increase in water level may have some benefits, such as reduced local desertification, the expansion of lake area will continue to flood low beaches, pasture lands, near shore infrastructure and roads, and impact tourism locations. However, continued water level rise may also have negative ecological effects, such as reduce habitat of seasonal birds and reduced water quality due to erosion and sediment resuspension in shallow nearshore lake areas. Local stakeholders, government authorities, and scientists should give greater attention to anticipated changes in water level, and further ecological studies and infrastructure adaptation measures should be implemented.

Identification of key priority areas under different ecological restoration scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

With the intensification of climate warming and human activities, the ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) are facing increasing threats which leads to extensive ecological degradation. Ecological restoration measures need to be implemented to improve biodiversity and ecosystem services to mitigate the impact of climate change and human disturbances. However, the key priority areas (KPAs) for ecological restoration are not clear on the QTP, and the benefits of ecosystem services for ecological restoration are often ignored. In this study, we are the first to identify the KPAs based on the quantitative evaluation method and multicriteria optimization algorithm under five restoration scenarios aiming at ecosystem service improvement on the QTP. Results showed that: (1) The benefits of ecological restoration for climate change mitigation and associated costs under different scenarios showed generally similar spatial variability, exhibiting higher in the south and lower in the west, which were different from those for biodiversity. (2) The restoration priorities in Sichuan and Yunnan were generally higher under scenarios Ⅱ and Ⅴ, while in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Yunnan, and western and southern Tibet were higher under scenarios Ⅰ, Ⅲ and Ⅳ. (3) For different ecosystems, the similarities lied in that the restoration priorities of wetland ecosystem were the highest, while those of desert ecosystem were the lowest under five restoration scenarios. (4) When the restoration area requirement was 25% of the total degraded area, the highest restoration priority levels under scenarios Ⅰ, Ⅲ and Ⅳ were mainly distributed in Guinan, Renbu, Nierong and Chayu counties, and under scenarios Ⅱ and Ⅴ were mainly distributed in Renbu, Lang and Guinan counties. When the restoration area requirements were 50% and 75% of the total degraded area, the counties with higher restoration priority levels under scenario Ⅱ were different from those under other four scenarios. This study identified the KPAs under different restoration scenarios, which provided references for the restoration measures implementation on the QTP.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Vegetation Cover in the Urumqi River Basin

It is important to determine long-term changes in vegetation cover, and the associated driving forces, to better understand the natural and human-induced factors affecting vegetation growth. We calculated the fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) of the Urumqi River basin and selected seven natural factors (the clay and sand contents of surface soils, elevation, aspect, slope, precipitation and temperature) and one human factor (land use type). We then used the Sen-Man-Kendall method to calculate the changing trend of the FVC from 2000 to 2020. We used the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) model to quantitatively analyze the influence of each factor on the change in vegetation coverage in the basin. The FVC of the Urumqi River basin fluctuated from 2000 to 2020, with average values between 0.22 and 0.33. The areas with no and low vegetation coverage accounted for two-thirds of the total area, whereas the areas with a medium, medium-high and high FVC accounted for one-third of the total area. The upper reaches of the river basin are glacial and forest areas with no vegetation coverage and a high FVC. The middle reaches are concentrated in areas of urban construction with a medium FVC. The lower reaches are in unstable farmland with a medium and high FVC and deserts with a low FVC and no vegetation. From the perspective of the change trend, the areas with an improved FVC accounted for 62.54% of the basin, stable areas accounted for 5.66% and degraded areas accounted for 31.8%. The FVC showed an increasing trend in the study area. The improvement was mainly in the areas of urban construction and desert. Degradation occurred in the high-elevation areas, whereas the transitional zone was unchanged. The analysis of driving forces showed that the human factor explained more of the changes in the FVC than the natural factors in the order: land use type (0.244) > temperature (0.216) > elevation (0.205) > soil clay content (0.172) > precipitation (0.163) > soil sand content (0.138) > slope (0.059) > aspect (0.014). Apart from aspect, the explanatory power (Q value) of the interaction of each factor was higher than that of the single factor. Risk detection showed that each factor had an interval in which the change in the FVC was inhibited or promoted. The optimum elevation interval of the study area was 1300-2700 m and the greatest inhibition of the FVC was seen above 3540 m. Too much or too little precipitation inhibited vegetation coverage.

Permafrost degradation is accelerating beneath the bottom of Yanhu Lake in the Hoh Xil, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have notably expanded over the past 20 years. Due to lake water level rise and lake area expansion, the permafrost surrounding these lakes is increasingly becoming submerged by lake water. However, the change process of submerged permafrost remains unclear, which is not conducive to further analyzing the environmental effects of permafrost change. Yanhu Lake, a tectonic lake on the QTP, has experienced significant expansion and water level rise. Field measurement results indicate that the water level of Yanhu Lake increased by 2.87 m per year on average from 2016 to 2019. Cold permafrost, developed in the lake basin, was partially submerged by lake water at the end of 2017. Based on the water level change and permafrost thermal regime, a numerical heat conduction permafrost model was employed to predict future changes in permafrost beneath the lake bottom. The simulated results indicate that the submerged permafrost would continuously degrade because of the significant thermal impact of lake water. By 2100, the maximum talik thicknesses could reach approximately 7, 12, 16, and 19 m under lake-bottom temperatures of +2.0, +4.0, +6.0, and +8.0 °C, respectively. Approximately 291 years would be required to completely melt 47 m of submerged permafrost under the lake-bottom temperature of +4 °C. Note that the permafrost table begins to melt earlier than does the permafrost base, and the decline in the permafrost table occurs relatively fast at first, but then the process is attenuated, after which the permafrost table again rapidly declines. Compared to climate warming, the degradation of the submerged permafrost beneath the lake bottom occurred more rapidly and notably.

Distinguishing the Impacts of Human Activities and Climate Change on the Livelihood Environment of Pastoralists in the Qinghai Lake Basin

Grassland vegetation is the largest terrestrial ecosystem in the Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB), and it is also the most important means of production for herders’ livelihoods. Quantifying the impact of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation changes is an essential task for ensuring the sustainable livelihood of pastoralists. To this end, we investigated vegetation cover changes in the QLB from 2000 to 2020 using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), meteorological raster data, and digital elevation and used residual analysis of multiple linear regression to evaluate the residuals of human activities. The residual analysis of partial derivatives was used to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to changes in vegetation cover. The results showed that: (1) The vegetation coverage of the QLB increased significantly (0.002/a, p < 0.01), with 91.38% of the area showing a greening trend, and 8.62% of the area suffering a degrading trend. The NDVI decreased substantially along the altitude gradient (−0.02/a, p < 0.01), with the highest vegetation coverage at 3600–3700 m (0.37/a). The vegetation degraded from 3200–3300 m, vegetation greening accelerated from 3300–3500 m, and vegetation greening slowed above 3500 m. (2) The contribution of climate change, temperature (T), and precipitation (P) to vegetation cover change were 1.62/a, 0.005/a, and 1.615/a, respectively. Below 3500 m, the vegetation greening was more limited by P. Above 3500 m, the vegetation greening was mainly limited by T. (3) Residual analysis showed that the contribution of human activities to vegetation cover was −1.618/a. Regarding the altitude gradient, at 3300–3500 m, human activities had the highest negative contribution to vegetation coverage (−2.389/a), and at 3200–3300 m, they had the highest positive contribution (0.389/a). In the past 21 years, the impact of human activities on vegetation coverage changed from negative to positive. Before 2009, the annual average NDVIres value was negative; after 2010, the average yearly NDVIres value turned positive. In general, the vegetation greening of the QLB depends on climate warming and humidification. The positive impact of human activities over the past decade was also essential for vegetation greening. These findings deepen our understanding of the QLB vegetation changes under climate change and human activities.

Quantitative analysis of vegetation restoration and potential driving factors in a typical subalpine region of the Eastern Tibet Plateau

Vegetation restoration is an essential approach to re-establish the ecological balance in subalpine areas. Changes in vegetation cover represent, to some extent, vegetation growth trends and are the consequence of a complex of different natural factors and human activities. Microtopography influences vegetation growth by affecting the amount of heat and moisture reaching the ground, a role that is more pronounced in subalpine areas. However, little research is concerned with the characteristics and dynamics of vegetation restoration in different microtopography types. The respective importance of the factors driving vegetation changes in subalpine areas is also not clear yet. We used linear regression and the Hurst exponent to analyze the trends in vegetation restoration and sustainability in different microtopography types since 2000, based on Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) and identified potential driving factors of vegetation change and their importance by using Geographical Detector. The results show that: (1) The FVC in the region under study has shown an up-trend since 2000, and the rate of increase is 0.26/year (P = 0.028). It would be going from improvement to degradation, continuous decrease or continuous significant decrease in 47.48% of the region, in the future. (2) The mean FVC is in the following order: lower slope (cool), lower slope, lower slope (warm), valley, upper slope (warm), upper slope, valley (narrow), upper slope (cool), cliff, mountain/divide, peak/ridge (warm), peak/ridge, peak/ridge (cool). The lower slope is the microtopographic type with the best vegetation cover, and ridge peak is the most difficult to be afforested. (3) The main factors affecting vegetation restoration in subalpine areas are aspect, microtopographic type, and soil taxonomy great groups. The interaction between multiple factors has a much stronger effect on vegetation cover than single factors, with the effect of temperatures and aspects having the most significant impact on the vegetation cover changes. Natural factors have a greater impact on vegetation restoration than human factors in the study area. The results of this research can contribute a better understanding of the influence of different drivers on the change of vegetation cover, and provide appropriate references and recommendations for vegetation restoration and sustainable development in typical logging areas in subalpine areas.

Spatial Pattern and Dynamic Change of Vegetation Greenness From 2001 to 2020 in Tibet, China

Due to the cold climate and dramatically undulating altitude, the identification of dynamic vegetation trends and main drivers is essential to maintain the ecological balance in Tibet. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), as the most commonly used greenness index, can effectively evaluate vegetation health and spatial patterns. MODIS-NDVI (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-NDVI) data for Tibet from 2001 to 2020 were obtained and preprocessed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform. The Theil-Sen median method and Mann-Kendall test method were employed to investigate dynamic NDVI changes, and the Hurst exponent was used to predict future vegetation trends. In addition, the main drivers of NDVI changes were analyzed. The results indicated that (1) the vegetation NDVI in Tibet significantly increased from 2001 to 2020, and the annual average NDVI value fluctuated between 0.31 and 0.34 at an increase rate of 0.0007 year^-1; (2) the vegetation improvement area accounted for the largest share of the study area at 56.6%, followed by stable unchanged and degraded areas, with proportions of 27.5 and 15.9%, respectively. The overall variation coefficient of the NDVI in Tibet was low, with a mean value of 0.13; (3) The mean value of the Hurst exponent was 0.53, and the area of continuously improving regions accounted for 41.2% of the study area, indicating that the vegetation change trend was continuous in most areas; (4) The NDVI in Tibet indicated a high degree of spatial agglomeration. However, there existed obvious differences in the spatial distribution of NDVI aggregation areas, and the aggregation types mainly included the high-high and low-low types; and (5) Precipitation and population growth significantly contributed to vegetation cover improvement in western Tibet. In addition, the use of the GEE to obtain remote sensing data combined with time-series data analysis provides the potential to quickly obtain large-scale vegetation change trends.

Annual 30-m big Lake Maps of the Tibetan Plateau in 1991-2018

Lake systems on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are important for the supply and storage of fresh water to billions of people. However, previous studies on the dynamics of these lakes focused on monitoring on multi-year scales and therefore lack sufficient temporal information. Here we present a new dataset comprising annual maps of big lakes (>10 km2) on the TP for 1991-2018, generated by utilizing all available Landsat images in conjunction with Google Earth Engine. The annual lake maps with high overall accuracy (~96%) highlight distinctive lake distribution and lake changes: (1) about 70% number and area of lakes concentrated in the Inner basin; (2) generally increasing trends in both the area (by 33%) and number (by 30%) of lakes from 1991 to 2018; (3) the total area changes were dominated by larger lakes (>50 km2) while more fluctuations in the lake number changes were found in medium lakes (10-50 km2). Our dataset infills temporal gaps in long-term inter-annual variations of big lakes, contributing towards enhanced knowledge of TP lake systems.

Quantifying the Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Water Volume in Lake Qinghai, China

Lake Qinghai has shrunk and then expanded over the past few decades. Quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to lake variation is important for water resource management and adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated the water volume change of Lake Qinghai, analyzed the climate and land use changes in Lake Qinghai catchment, and distinguished the contributions of climate change and local human activities to water volume change. The results showed that lake water volume decreased by 9.48 km3 from 1975 to 2004 and increased by 15.18 km3 from 2005 to 2020. The climate in Lake Qinghai catchment is becoming warmer and more pluvial, and the changes in land use have been minimal. Based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), land use change, climate change and interaction effect of them contributed to 7.46%, 93.13% and −0.59%, respectively, on the variation in surface runoff into the lake. From the perspective of the water balance, we calculated the proportion of each component flowing into and out of the lake and found that the contribution of climate change to lake water volume change was 97.55%, while the local human activities contribution was only 2.45%. Thus, climate change had the dominant impact on water volume change in Lake Qinghai.

Long-Term Lake Area Change and Its Relationship with Climate in the Endorheic Basins of the Tibetan Plateau

Lakes are sensitive indicators of climate change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which have shown high temporal and spatial variability in recent decades. The driving forces for the change are still not entirely clear. This study examined the area change of the lakes greater than 1 km2 in the endorheic basins of the Tibetan Plateau (EBTP) using Landsat images from 1990 to 2019, and analysed the relationships between lake area and local and large-scale climate variables at different geographic scales. The results show that lake area in the EBTP has increased significantly from 1990 to 2019 at a rate of 432.52 km2·year−1. In the past 30 years, lake area changes in the EBTP have mainly been affected by local climate variables such as precipitation and temperature. At a large scale, Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) has correlations with lake area in western sub-regions in the Inner Basin (IB). While Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has a significant connection with lake area, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not. We also found that abnormal drought (rainfall) brought by the El Niño/La Niña events are significantly correlated with the lake area change in most sub-regions in the IB.

Chemical source profiles of particulate matter and gases emitted from solid fuels for residential cooking and heating scenarios in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Incomplete combustion of solid fuels (animal dung and bituminous coal) is a common phenomenon during residential cooking and heating in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), resulting in large amounts of pollutants emitted into the atmosphere. This study investigated the pollutant emissions from six burning scenarios (heating and cooking with each of the three different fuels: yak dung, sheep dung, and bitumite) in the QTP's pastoral dwellings. Target pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), gas-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), fine particles (PM_2.5, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm), carbonaceous aerosols, water-soluble ions, and particle-phase PAHs were investigated. Emission factors (EFs) (mean ± standard deviation) of PM_2.5 from the six scenarios were in the range of 1.21 ± 0.47-7.03 ± 1.95 g kg^-1, of which over 60% mass fractions were carbonaceous aerosols. The ratio of organic carbon to elemental carbon ranged from 9.6 ± 2.7-33.4 ± 11.5 and 81.7 ± 30.4-91.9 ± 29.0 for dung and bitumite burning, respectively. These values were much larger than those reported in the literature, likely because of the region's high altitudes-where the oxygen level is approximately 65% of that at the sea level-thus providing a deficient air supply to stoves. However, the toxicity and carcinogenicity of PAHs emitted from solid fuel combustion in the QTP are significant, despite a slightly lower benzo(a)pyrene-equivalent carcinogenic potency (Bap_eq) in this study than in the literature. The gas-to-particle partitioning coefficient of PAHs and VOC emission profiles in the QTP differed significantly from those reported for other regions in the literature. More attention should be paid to the emissions of PAH derivatives (oxygenated PAHs and nitro-PAHs), considering their enhanced light-absorbing ability and high BaP_eq from solid fuel combustion in the QTP.

Contrasting Evolution Patterns of Endorheic and Exorheic Lakes on the Central Tibetan Plateau and Climate Cause Analysis during 1988–2017

The alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are indicators of climate change. The assessment of lake dynamics on the TP is an important component of global climate change research. With a focus on lakes in the 33° N zone of the central TP, this study investigates the temporal evolution patterns of the lake areas of different types of lakes, i.e., non-glacier-fed endorheic lakes and non-glacier-fed exorheic lakes, during 1988–2017, and examines their relationship with changes in climatic factors. From 1988 to 2017, two endorheic lakes (Lake Yagenco and Lake Zhamcomaqiong) in the study area expanded significantly, i.e., by more than 50%. Over the same period, two exorheic lakes within the study area also exhibited spatio-temporal variability: Lake Gaeencuonama increased by 5.48%, and the change in Lake Zhamuco was not significant. The 2000s was a period of rapid expansion of both the closed lakes (endorheic lakes) and open lakes (exorheic lakes) in the study area. However, the endorheic lakes maintained the increase in lake area after the period of rapid expansion, while the exorheic lakes decreased after significant expansion. During 1988–2017, the annual mean temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.04 °C/a, while the annual precipitation slightly increased at a rate of 2.23 mm/a. Furthermore, the annual precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 14.28 mm/a during 1995–2008. The results of this study demonstrate that the change in precipitation was responsible for the observed changes in the lake areas of the two exorheic lakes within the study area, while the changes in the lake areas of the two endorheic lakes were more sensitive to the annual mean temperature between 1988 and 2017. Given the importance of lakes to the TP, these are not trivial issues, and we now need accelerated research based on long-term and continuous remote sensing data.

Risk assessment of insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under climate change

BACKGROUND

Growth in insect pest populations poses a significant threat to ecosystem functions and services, societal development, and food security in alpine regions under climate change. Risk assessments are important prioritization tools for pest management, which must be used to study insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under global warming. We used species distribution modeling to simulate the current and future distribution probabilities of 58 insect pest species in the Qinghai Province, China, based on a comprehensive field investigation. Subsequently, general linear modeling was used to explore the relationship between the distribution probability of these species and the damage caused by them. Finally, we assessed the ecological risk of insect pest expansion across different alpine ecosystems under climate change.

RESULTS

Climate change could increase the distribution probabilities of insect pest species across different alpine ecosystems. However, the presence of insect pest species may not correspond to the damage occurrence in alpine ecosystems based on percent leaf loss, amount of stunting, and seedling death of their host species. Significant positive relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence were found for several of the examined insect pest species. Insect pest expansion is likely to increase extensively in alpine ecosystems under increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) emission scenarios.

CONCLUSION

The relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence should be considered in species distribution modeling for risk assessment of insect pest expansion under climate change. Our study could improve the effectiveness of risk assessment of insect pest expansion under changing climate conditions. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Multiple Data Products Reveal Long-Term Variation Characteristics of Terrestrial Water Storage and Its Dominant Factors in Data-Scarce Alpine Regions

As the “Water Tower of Asia” and “The Third Pole” of the world, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) shows great sensitivity to global climate change, and the change in its terrestrial water storage has become a focus of attention globally. Differences in multi-source data and different calculation methods have caused great uncertainty in the accurate estimation of terrestrial water storage. In this study, the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB), located in the southeast of the QTP, was selected as the study area, with the aim of investigating the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of terrestrial water storage change (TWSC). Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data from 2003 to 2017, combined with the fifth-generation reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) data and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data, were adopted for the performance evaluation of TWSC estimation. Based on ERA5 and GLDAS, the terrestrial water balance method (PER) and the summation method (SS) were used to estimate terrestrial water storage, obtaining four sets of TWSC, which were compared with TWSC derived from GRACE. The results show that the TWSC estimated by the SS method based on GLDAS is most consistent with the results of GRACE. The time-lag effect was identified in the TWSC estimated by the PER method based on ERA5 and GLDAS, respectively, with 2-month and 3-month lags. Therefore, based on the GLDAS, the SS method was used to further explore the long-term temporal and spatial evolution of TWSC in the YZRB. During the period of 1948–2017, TWSC showed a significantly increasing trend; however, an abrupt change in TWSC was detected around 2002. That is, TWSC showed a significantly increasing trend before 2002 (slope = 0.0236 mm/month, p < 0.01) but a significantly decreasing trend (slope = −0.397 mm/month, p < 0.01) after 2002. Additional attribution analysis on the abrupt change in TWSC before and after 2002 was conducted, indicating that, compared with the snow water equivalent, the soil moisture dominated the long-term variation of TWSC. In terms of spatial distribution, TWSC showed a large spatial heterogeneity, mainly in the middle reaches with a high intensity of human activities and the Parlung Zangbo River Basin, distributed with great glaciers. The results obtained in this study can provide reliable data support and technical means for exploring the spatio-temporal evolution mechanism of terrestrial water storage in data-scarce alpine regions.

Spatial differentiation of the NPP and NDVI and its influencing factors vary with grassland type on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Grasslands are the dominant ecosystem of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), and they play an important role in climate regulation and represent an important ecological barrier in China. However, the spatial differentiation characteristics of net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) and the main influencing factors that vary with grassland type on the QTP are not clear. In this study, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), digital elevation model (DEM), precipitation, temperature, slope, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and grazing intensity were considered the driving factors. First, a grey relational degree analysis was performed to test for the quantitative relationships between NPP, NDVI and factors. Then, the geographical detector method was applied to analyze the interaction relationships of the factors. Finally, based on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, the influence of factors varied with grassland type on the NPP and NDVI was revealed from the perspective of spatial differentiation. The results were as follows: (1) The NPP and NDVI had roughly the same degrees of correlation with each impact factor by the grey relational degree analysis, each factor was closely related to the NPP and NDVI, and the relational degree between grazing intensity and NPP was greater than that between grazing intensity and NDVI. (2) The interaction relationships between influencing factors and NPP and NDVI varied with the grassland type and presented bivariate enhancement and nonlinear enhancement, and the interaction effects between grazing intensity and any factor on each grassland type had a greater impact on NPP. (3) The main influencing factors of the spatial heterogeneity of NPP were grazing intensity and PAR, which were "high from northeast to southwest, low from northwest to southeast" and "low in the middle and high around". The main influencing factors on the NDVI were precipitation and PAR, which were "low in the middle and high around" and "high in the north, low in the south".

Climate Dynamics of the Spatiotemporal Changes of Vegetation NDVI in Northern China from 1982 to 2015

As an important part of a terrestrial ecosystem, vegetation plays an important role in the global carbon-water cycle and energy flow. Based on the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) third generation of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g), meteorological station data, climate reanalysis data, and land cover data, this study analyzed the climate dynamics of the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation NDVI in northern China from 1982 to 2015. The results showed that growth season NDVI (NDVIgs) increased significantly at 0.006/10a (p < 0.01) in 1982–2015 on the regional scale. The period from 1982 to 2015 was divided into three periods: the NDVIgs increased by 0.026/10a (p < 0.01) in 1982–1990, decreased by −0.002/10a (p > 0.1) in 1990–2006, and then increased by 0.021/10a (p < 0.01) during 2006–2015. On the pixel scale, the increases in NDVIgs during 1982–2015, 1982–1990, 1990–2006, and 2006–2015 accounted for 74.64%, 85.34%, 48.14%, and 68.78% of the total area, respectively. In general, the dominant climate drivers of vegetation growth had gradually switched from solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation (1982–1990) to precipitation and temperature (1990–2015). For woodland, high coverage grassland, medium coverage grassland, low coverage grassland, the dominant climate drivers had changed from temperature and solar radiation, solar radiation and precipitation, precipitation and solar radiation, solar radiation to precipitation and solar radiation, precipitation, precipitation and temperature, temperature and precipitation. The areas controlled by precipitation increased significantly, mainly distributed in arid, sub-arid, and sub-humid areas. The dominant climate drivers for vegetation growth in the plateau climate zone or high-altitude area changed from solar radiation to temperature and precipitation, and then to temperature, while in cold temperate zone, changed from temperature to solar radiation. These results are helpful to understand the climate dynamics of vegetation growth, and have important guiding significance for vegetation protection and restoration in the context of global climate change.

Relationships between Temporal and Spatial Changes in Lakes and Climate Change in the Saline-Alkali Concentrated Distribution Area in the Southwest of Songnen Plain, Northeast China, from 1985 to 2015

The southwest of Songnen Plain, Northeast China, has an arid climate and is a typical concentrated distribution area of saline-alkali soil. The terrain here is low-lying, with many small, shallow lakes that are vulnerable to climate change. This paper used Landsat satellite remote sensing images of this area from 1985 to 2015 to perform interpretation of lake water bodies, to classify the lakes according to their areas, and to analyze the spatial dynamic characteristics of lakes in different areas. During the 30 years from 1985 to 2015, the number of lakes in the study area decreased by 71, and the total lake area decreased by 266.85 km2. The decrease was more serious in the east and northeast, and the appearance and disappearance of lakes was drastic. The Mann–Kendall test method was used to analyze trends in meteorological factors (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and annual evaporation) in the study area and perform mutation tests. Through correlation analysis and multiple generalized linear model analysis, the response relationship between lake change and climate change was quantified. The results showed that the average temperature in the area is rising, and the annual precipitation and evaporation are declining. Temperature and precipitation mainly affected lakes of less than 1 km2, with a contribution rate of 31.2% and 39.4%, and evaporation had a certain correlation to the total lake area in the study area, with a contribution rate of 60.2%. Small lakes are susceptible to climatic factors, while large lakes, which are mostly used as water sources, may be influenced more by human factors. This is the problem and challenge to be uncovered in this article. This research will help to improve our understanding of lake evolution and climate change response in saline-alkali areas and provide scientific basis for research into lakes’ (reservoirs’) sustainable development and protection.

Elevation and Climate Effects on Vegetation Greenness in an Arid Mountain-Basin System of Central Asia

Mountain-basin systems (MBS) in Central Asia are unique and complex ecosystems, wherein their elevation gradients lead to high spatial heterogeneity in vegetation and its response to climate change. Exploring elevation-dependent vegetation greenness variation and the effects of climate factors on vegetation has important theoretical and practical significance for regulating the ecological processes of this system. Based on the MODIS NDVI (remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index), and observed precipitation and temperature data sets, we analyzed vegetation greenness and climate patterns and dynamics with respect to elevation (300–3600 m) in a typical MBS, in Altay Prefecture, China, during 2000–2017. Results showed that vegetation exhibited a greening (NDVI) trend for the whole region, as well as the mountain, oasis and desert zones, but only the desert zone reached significant level. Vegetation in all elevation bins showed greening, with significant trends at 400–700 m and 2600–3500 m. In summer, lower elevation bins (below 1500 m) had a nonsignificant wetting and warming trend and higher elevation bins had a nonsignificant drying and warming trend. Temperature trend increased with increasing elevation, indicating that warming was stronger at higher elevations. In addition, precipitation had a significantly positive coefficient and temperature a nonsignificant coefficient with NDVI at both regional scale and subregional scale. Our analysis suggests that the regional average could mask or obscure the relationship between climate and vegetation at elevational scale. Vegetation greenness had a positive response to precipitation change in all elevation bins, and had a negative response to temperature change at lower elevations (below 2600 m), and a positive response to temperature change at higher elevations. We observed that vegetation greenness was more sensitive to precipitation than to temperature at lower elevations (below 2700 m), and was more sensitive to temperature at higher elevations.

Increasing carbon storage in subtropical forests over the Yangtze River basin and its relations to the major ecological projects

Forest carbon stocks has an important role in the global carbon budget. Based on the satellite-observed and LPJ model simulated aboveground biomass carbon (ABC) data, the spatial and temporal changes of subtropical forest carbon storage in the Yangtze River basin and its relations to the climate variation and human activities were analyzed by using the methods of cumulative curve analysis and climate sensitivity analysis during 1993-2012. The results revealed that: (1) In general, the forest ABC increased obviously in the Yangtze River basin during the past 20 years, and the ABC rose from 2563.91 Tg C in 1993 to 2893.17 Tg C in 2012, with a growth rate of 12.84%. The higher ABC distribution was mainly concentrated in the Jialing River basin and Hanjiang River basin and the significantly increasing trends could be found in most area of the Yangtze River basin; (2) The forest ABC was sensitive to the changes of temperature and precipitation. When the temperature increases by 1 °C, the ABC in the Yangtze River basin will increase by 3.32%, while it will decrease by -6.12% when the precipitation increases by 10%; (3) The forest ABC growth rate had accelerated from 3.15% in 1993-2000 to 8.01% in 2001-2012. The cumulative curve of the forest ABC was generally higher than the temperature or the precipitation after 2000. The total areas induced by climate variation and human activities accounted for 30.5% and 52.59% with an increases in ABC by 67.52 Tg C and 188.74 Tg C from 1993 to 2012, respectively. The implementation of major forestry projects might be the main reason for the rapid increase of forest ABC in the Yangtze River basin. This study suggested human activities such as ecological projects might contribute to the accelerated greening trend and highlighted the pivotal role of subtropical forest ABC in the carbon budget in China.

Assessing arid Inland Lake Watershed Area and Vegetation Response to Multiple Temporal Scales of Drought Across the Ebinur Lake Watershed

The Ebinur Lake watershed is an important ecological barrier for environmental changes in the Junggar Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR). Due to the tremendous changes in the underlying surface environment of the watershed in the past few decades, the watershed has become a typical region of ecological degradation. Drought affects the surface dynamics and characterizes the regional dry and wet environments, while the dynamic variation in lakes and vegetation are indicators of dynamic changes in land surfaces. Thus, a quantitative assessment of the response of lakes and vegetation to drought conditions at multiple temporal scales is critical for assessing the potential impacts of regional climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and ecological restoration. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the spectral water index (NDWI) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were used to analyse the evolution of drought, the variation in lake surface area and the sustainable variation in vegetation. Furthermore, we quantitatively evaluated the response patterns of vegetation to droughts of multiple temporal scales (1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-month). The conclusions showed that (1) overall, the area of Ebinur Lake experienced drastic fluctuations, and the lake area has decreased significantly since 2003, with a dynamic area of 817.63 km² in 2003 and 384.60 km² in 2015, and the lake area had shrank severely. (2) The interannual variation of wet and dry changed alternately during the observation period, and persistent drought events occurred from 2006 to 2010 across the Ebinur Lake watershed. (3) The vegetation area of cultivated land expanded continuously across the watershed, and the grassland degraded severely. (4) The changes in lake surface area are significantly correlated with the inflow water volume (correlation coefficient = 0.64, P < 0.01). (5) The vegetation of different terrestrial ecosystems exhibited heterogeneous responses to multiple temporal scales of drought in different seasons. The percentage was 72.78% of the total area, which showed a correlation between vegetation and drought conditions during the growing season period, and there were more impacts of drought on vegetation, with values as high as 64.33% of the area in summer, than those in other seasons.

Vertical difference of climate change impacts on vegetation at temporal-spatial scales in the upper stream of the Mekong River Basin

As the upper section of the Mekong River Basin, the vegetation quality of the Lancang River Basin (LRB) and the related ecological functions are critical for the whole basin. With time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from 2000 to 2015 and local daily climatic data since 1976, their vertical interaction differences were identified. The results showed that the spatial variation in Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of grassland and forest were sensitive to elevation. The NDVI value in the southern area at elevations less than 3000 m was more than 0.80 and decreased to 0.30-0.60 with elevations higher than 4500 m. The general vegetation quality showed a positive trend under climate change over 16 years. The M-K test of daily precipitation and temperature from 12 local weather stations showed that the basin temperature varied more significantly than precipitation. The temporal correlation between NDVI with precipitation as well as temperature at each pixel indicated that temperature was the dominant factor affecting grassland and forest dynamics in the LRB. The interaction between vegetation and climate was more sensitive at elevations lower than 3000 m. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, the future temperature distribution was predicted, and its impact on NDVI was simulated at the pixel scale. Under future drier and warmer climate conditions, the responded NDVI in the upper stream with higher elevation may increase soil erosion and decrease streamflow. The NDVI in the downstream area will be improved and be able to adapt to the related climate impacts. Because of the large amount of water and biomass in this basin, higher temperatures will accelerate the decomposition of forest foliar litter. Thus, more organic carbon and forest diffuse pollution will be discharged into the water, potentially affecting the water quality of the whole basin.

Tibetan sheep grazing modifies rodent density and their interactions effect on GHG emissions of alpine meadow

Digging and mound-building by rodents lead to considerable disturbances in the topsoil and may affect plant composition, soil properties. However, little is known about the effects of these activities on GHG emissions, especially under different grazing management. This paper aimed to measure changes in CO₂ and CH₄ efflux with varying grazing management during the warm and cold seasons and to relate CO₂ and CH₄ efflux to pika burrow density and zokor mound density with different grazing management. Results of this study showed that CO₂ efflux was significantly affected by the grazing season, whereas CH₄ efflux was significantly affected by the grazing system. There were significant relationships between GHG efflux and rodent population density which were regulated by grazing management. CO₂ efflux increased linearly with rodent density under seasonal continuous grazing in warm season. CO₂ and CH₄ efflux and rodent population density showed a significant quadratic convex relationship under rotational grazing at 24 SM/ha in warm and cold seasons and rotational grazing at 48 SM/ha in cold season. Under rotational grazing at light stocking rate (24 SM/ha), appropriate populations of rodents were beneficial for decreasing GHG emissions. This results also used to help drive a best-practices model for grazing practices of local herders.

Analysis of Long-Term Water Level Variations in Qinghai Lake in China

Qinghai Lake is the largest inland saline lake on the Tibetan Plateau. Climate change and catchment modifications induced by human activities are the main drivers playing a significant role in the dramatic variation of water levels in the lake (Δh); hence, it is crucial to provide a better understanding of the impacts caused by these phenomena. However, their respective contribution to and influence on water level variations in Qinghai Lake are still unclear and without characterizing them, targeted measures for a more efficient conservation and management of the lake cannot be implemented. In this paper, data monitored during the period 1960–2016 (e.g., meteorological and land use data) have been analyzed by applying multiple techniques to fill this gap and estimate the contribution of each parameter recorded to water level variations (Δh). Results obtained have demonstrated that the water level of Qinghai Lake declined between 1960 and 2004, and since then has risen continuously and gradually, due to the changes in evaporation rates, precipitation and consequently surface runoff associated with climate change effects and catchment modifications. The authors have also pinpointed that climate change is the main leading cause impacting the water level in Qinghai Lake because results demonstrated that 93.13% of water level variations can be attributable to it, while the catchment modifications are responsible for 6.87%. This is a very important outcome in the view of the fact that global warming clearly had a profound impact in this sensitive and responsive region, affecting hydrological processes in the largest inland lake of the Tibetan Plateau.

Remote Sensing of Environmental Changes in Cold Regions: Methods, Achievements and Challenges

Cold regions, including high-latitude and high-altitude landscapes, are experiencing profound environmental changes driven by global warming. With the advance of earth observation technology, remote sensing has become increasingly important for detecting, monitoring, and understanding environmental changes over vast and remote regions. This paper provides an overview of recent achievements, challenges, and opportunities for land remote sensing of cold regions by (a) summarizing the physical principles and methods in remote sensing of selected key variables related to ice, snow, permafrost, water bodies, and vegetation; (b) highlighting recent environmental nonstationarity occurring in the Arctic, Tibetan Plateau, and Antarctica as detected from satellite observations; (c) discussing the limits of available remote sensing data and approaches for regional monitoring; and (d) exploring new opportunities from next-generation satellite missions and emerging methods for accurate, timely, and multi-scale mapping of cold regions.

An Integrated Land Cover Mapping Method Suitable for Low-Accuracy Areas in Global Land Cover Maps

In land cover mapping, an area with complex topography or heterogeneous land covers is usually poorly classified and therefore defined as a low-accuracy area. The low-accuracy areas are important because they restrict the overall accuracy (OA) of global land cover classification (LCC) data generated. In this paper, low-accuracy areas in China (extracted from the MODIS global LCC maps) were taken as examples, identified as the regions having lower accuracy than the average OA of China. An integrated land cover mapping method targeting low-accuracy regions was developed and tested in eight representative low-accuracy regions of China. The method optimized procedures of image choosing and sample selection based on an existent visually-interpreted regional LCC dataset with high accuracies. Five algorithms and 16 groups of classification features were compared to achieve the highest OA. The support vector machine (SVM) achieved the highest mean OA (81.5%) when only spectral bands were classified. Aspect tended to attenuate OA as a classification feature. The optimal classification features for different regions largely depends on the topographic feature of vegetation. The mean OA for eight low-accuracy regions was 84.4% by the proposed method in this study, which exceeded the mean OA of most precedent global land cover datasets. The new method can be applied worldwide to improve land cover mapping of low-accuracy areas in global land cover maps.

Changes in Forest Net Primary Productivity in the Yangtze River Basin and Its Relationship with Climate Change and Human Activities

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a basis of material and energy flows in terrestrial ecosystems, and it is also an important component in the research on carbon cycle and carbon budget. This paper evaluated the spatial distribution pattern and temporal change trends for forest NPP simulated by the LPJ (Lund-Potsdam-Jena) model and NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) in the Yangtze River basin from 1982 to 2013. The results revealed that: (1) the spatial distribution of the forest NPP and NDVI in the Yangtze River basin has gradually decreased from the southeast coast to the northwest. The forest NPP and NDVI in the mid-lower Yangtze were higher than that of the upper Yangtze; (2) the forest NPP and NDVI in most areas of the Yangtze River basin were positively correlated with the temperature and precipitation. Moreover, the correlations among the temperature with the forest NPP and NDVI were stronger than that of correlations among precipitation with forest NPP and NDVI. Moreover, the extreme drought event in the year of 2004–2005 led the NPP to decrease in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin; (3) human activity such as major ecological projects would have a certain impact on the NPP and NDVI. The increase in forest areas from 2000 to 2010 was larger than that from 1990 to 2000. Moreover, the increasing rate for the NDVI was higher than that of NPP, especially after the year 2000, which indicates that the major ecological projects might have great impacts on the vegetation dynamics. Moreover, more attention should be paid on the joint impacts of human activity and climate change on terrestrial NPP and NDVI.

Assessing climate impact on forest cover in areas undergoing substantial land cover change using Landsat imagery

In this study, we propose to assess climate impact on forest cover (represented by EVI) at multiple scales in areas undergoing substantial land cover change, using Landsat imagery with human-induced land cover change effect excluded. Taking the Qingliu River catchment located in a subtropical humid monsoon area in China as a case study, the results indicate that EVI increases significantly (p < 0.01) during 1989-2014 with a magnitude of 0.026/decade. Spatial distribution of EVI is distinct in summer and growing season. Temperature and precipitation show high partial correlations with EVI, with better partial correlation found between EVI and temperature. Their partial correlations with EVI on monthly scale are higher than those on annual scale. Besides, precipitation and pan evaporation show accumulative lag effects (4 months) on forest EVI, while temperature has no lag effect. Finally, an empirical formula is established to quantify the relationship among EVI and its main driving factors (temperature and precipitation) by considering the precipitation threshold (200 mm). The findings should provide scientific supports for local forest management and ecosystem services, and should also support the hydrological effect assessment of vegetation cover change under climate change for the study area.

Variations of Surface and Subsurface Water Storage in the Lower Mekong Basin (Vietnam and Cambodia) from Multisatellite Observations

In this study, we estimate monthly variations of surface-water storage (SWS) and subsurface water storage (SSWS, including groundwater and soil moisture) within the Lower Mekong Basin located in Vietnam and Cambodia during the 2003–2009 period. The approach is based on the combination of multisatellite observations using surface-water extent from MODIS atmospherically corrected land-surface imagery, and water-level variations from 45 virtual stations (VS) derived from ENVISAT altimetry measurements. Surface-water extent ranges from ∼6500 to ∼40,000 km 2 during low and high water stages, respectively. Across the study area, seasonal variations of water stages range from 8 m in the upstream parts to 1 m in the downstream regions. Annual variation of SWS is ∼40 km 3 for the 2003–2009 period that contributes to 40–45% of total water-storage (TWS) variations derived from Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. By removing the variations of SWS from GRACE-derived TWS, we can isolate the monthly variations of SSWS, and estimate its mean annual variations of ∼50 km 3 (55–60% of the TWS). This study highlights the ability to combine multisatellite observations to monitor land-water storage and the variations of its different components at regional scale. The results of this study represent important information to improve the overall quality of regional hydrological models and to assess the impacts of human activities on the hydrological cycles.

Changes of Grassland Rain Use Efficiency and NDVI in Northwestern China from 1982 to 2013 and Its Response to Climate Change

The grasslands in arid and semi-arid regions rely heavily on the use of rain, thus, improving rain use efficiency (RUE) is essential for securing sustainable development of grassland ecosystems in these areas with limited rainfall. In this study, the spatial and temporal variabilities of RUE for grassland ecosystems over Northwestern China during 1982–2013 were analyzed using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation data. Results showed that: (1) Although grassland area has decreased gradually over the past 30 years, the NDVI in most areas showed that the vegetation was gradually restored; (2) The trends of RUE increased in the east of Northwestern China and decreased in the west of Northwestern China. However, the trends of RUE for the high-coverage grasslands (vs. low-coverage grassland) increased (decreased) significantly over the past 30 years. (3) The RUE for the grasslands was positively correlated with air temperature, while it was negatively correlated with the change of annual mean precipitation in northwestern China. Moreover, the obvious RUE increasing trends were found in the vegetation restoration areas, while the RUE decreasing trends appeared in the vegetation degradation areas. This study will be helpful for understanding the impacts of climate change on securing the sustainable development of grassland ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions.