Riparian forests mitigate harmful ecological effects of agricultural diffuse pollution in medium-sized streams

Water Framework Directive micropollutant monitoring mirrors catchment land use: Importance of agricultural and urban sources revealed

River monitoring programs worldwide consistently unveil micropollutant concentrations (pesticide, pharmaceuticals, and industrial chemicals) exceeding regulatory quality targets with deteriorating effects on aquatic communities. However, both the composition and individual concentrations of micropollutants are likely to vary with the catchment land use, in particular regarding urban and agricultural area as the primary sources of micropollutants. In this study, we used a dataset of 109 governmental monitoring sites with micropollutants monitored across the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, to investigate the relationship between high-resolution catchment land use (distinguishing urban, forested and grassland area as well as 22 different agricultural crop types) and 39 micropollutants using Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). Ecotoxicological risks were indicated for mixtures of pharmaceutical and industrial chemicals for 100 % and for pesticides for 55 % of the sites. The proportion of urban area in the catchment was positively related with concentrations of most pharmaceuticals and industrial chemicals (R2 up to 0.54), whereas the proportions of grassland and forested areas generally showed negative relations. Cropland overall showed weak positive relationships with micropollutant concentrations (R2 up to 0.29). Individual crop types, particularly vegetables and permanent crops, showed higher relations (R2 up to 0.46). The findings suggest that crop type-specific pesticide applications are mirrored in the detected micropollutant concentrations. This highlights the need for high-resolution spatial land use to investigate the magnitude and dynamics of micropollutant exposure and relevant pollution sources, which would remain undetected with highly aggregated land use classifications. Moreover, the findings imply the need for tailored management measures to reduce micropollutant concentrations from different sources and their related ecological effects. Urban point sources, could be managed by advanced wastewater treatment. The reduction of diffuse pollution from agricultural land uses requires additional measures, to prevent pesticides from entering the environment and exceeding regulatory quality targets.

Disentangling natural and anthropogenic effects on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in western US streams

Stream macroinvertebrate assemblages are shaped by natural and human-related factors that operate through complex hierarchical pathways. Quantifying these relationships can provide additional insights into stream ecological assessment. We applied a structural equation modeling framework to evaluate hypothesized pathways by which watershed, riparian, and in-stream factors affect benthic macroinvertebrate condition in the Western Mountains (WMT) and Xeric (XER) ecoregions in the United States. We developed a conceptual model grounded in theory, empirical evidence, and expert opinion to evaluate the following hypotheses: (1) macroinvertebrate assemblages are primarily driven by proximal, in-stream factors (e.g., water quality and physical habitat); (2) anthropogenic land uses affect macroinvertebrates indirectly by altering in-stream characteristics; and (3) riparian vegetation cover attenuates land use effects. We tested our model separately on three measures of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage condition: ratio of observed-to-expected taxonomic richness (O/E); a multimetric index (MMI); and richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT). In the WMT, site-level riparian cover, in-stream physical habitat (relative bed stability), and water chemistry (total nitrogen) were the top three predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages, each having over two times the magnitude of effect on macroinvertebrates compared with watershed-level predictors. In the arid XER, annual precipitation and stream flow characteristics were top predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages and had similar magnitudes of effect as in-stream water chemistry. Path analyses revealed that land use activities in the watershed and at the stream site degraded macroinvertebrate assemblages indirectly by altering relative bed stability, water quality, and riparian cover/complexity. Increased riparian cover was associated with greater macroinvertebrate condition by reducing land use impacts on stream flow, streambed substrate, and water quality, but the pathways differed among ecoregions. In the WMT, site-level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages partly through indirect pathways associated with greater streambed stability and reduced total nitrogen concentrations. In contrast, in the XER, watershed-level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages through greater specific stream power. Identifying the relative effects of and pathways by which natural and anthropogenic factors affect macroinvertebrates can serve as a framework for prioritizing management and conservation efforts.

Effect of multiple spatial scale characterization of land use on water quality

Land use in uplands is an important factor affecting water quality in its respective catchment, and its influences at the different spatial scales and configurations warrant further investigation. Here, we selected 26 catchments in the upper Han River (China) and sampled the surface water at the outlet of each catchment in four seasons during 2019. Multivariate statistics were used to identify the relationships between land use characteristics in uplands and water quality in river system. The results indicated that chemical oxygen demand (COD_Mn); pH; dissolved oxygen; electrical conductivity; nutrient, i.e., NH₄⁺-N, NO₃^--N; and dissolved phosphorus (DP) in rivers displayed significant seasonal variations. Stepwise regression revealed that landscape metrics such as patch density, landscape shape index, and splitting index were important factors influencing water quality in rivers regardless of their spatiality and seasonality. Urban was the most frequently chosen land-use type in the best prediction models, and forest area showed a negative correlation with water quality parameters in most cases for example, DP. Overall, the influence of land use on river water quality was slightly stronger at reach scale than at catchment and riparian scales. Also, nutrients (i.e., NH₄⁺-N, NO₃^--N, and DP) in rivers were primarily impacted by the land use characteristic at catchment and riparian scales. Our results suggested that multi-scale explorations would help to achieve a fully understanding on the impacts of land use on river water quality.

Baseline assessment of the hydrological network and land use in riparian buffers of Pampean streams of Uruguay

The integrated assessment of stream networks and terrestrial land use contributes a critical foundation for understanding and mitigating potential impacts on stream ecology. Riparian zone delineation and management is a key component for regulating water quality, particularly in agricultural watersheds. We present a national assessment of riparian zone land uses according to stream order for the entire hydrological network in the Uruguayan landscape in Southeastern South America. We classified over 82,500 km of streams and rivers in Uruguay into seven Strahler order classes and delineated riparian buffers of 100 and 500 m, depending on stream order, covering a total of 13% of the terrestrial land area in Uruguay. Natural vegetation cover in riparian zones averaged 77% among basins, whereby natural grassland dominated first and second order stream buffers at 58% and 49%, respectively. This highlighted the importance of grasslands in headwater regions of the country. Riparian forests formed corridors along larger streams, representing a mere 9% of buffers in first order streams but reaching 46% of buffers of 6th order streams. Among the six major basins of Uruguay, we found differences in the relative importance of riparian forests and crop cover in headwater stream riparian zones, as well as differences in relative crop cover within riparian zones. Results show that streams in subtropical grassland landscapes originate in open grassland environments, which has major implications for thermal regimes, carbon inputs, and stream biodiversity. Riparian buffer management should consider geographic differences among different basins and ecoregions within Uruguay.

Ecological integrity assessment of streams in the light of natural ecoregions and anthropic land use

Reference conditions for river bioassessment should be established inside ecoregions. Our objectives were (1) to implement a bioassessment methodology for Uruguayan prairie streams regarding ecoregions and land use and (2) to assess the ecological integrity of streams of the Río Negro basin in Uruguay. Due to logistical constraints, sampling was divided into two collection trips: one including the upper basin in fall 2015 and the other including the lower basin in spring 2016. Basins were analyzed separately due to seasonal and geographical differences. In the streams sampled in fall 2015, conductivity, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) were higher in sedimentary ecoregions than in crystalline ones, independent on land use. In those sampled in spring 2016, these variables showed the highest values in the ecoregions dominated by agriculture. Eighty percent of the sampled streams presented the impact of cattle in their riparian zone. Discriminant analysis showed a similar composition of macroinvertebrates among ecoregions in 2015, but different composition between land uses. Conversely, in 2016, there were differences among some ecoregions, but not between land uses. Agriculture was correlated with tolerant invertebrates, while natural land use and afforestation were correlated with sensitive ones. The BMWP-Colombia showed the impact of livestock on streams, but in general good water quality, while an index of genera for Uruguay, indicated that all streams are eutrophic, thereby confirming the importance of using different types of metrics. Due to its geographical homogeneity and small size, a smaller number of ecoregions could be defined for stream assessments in the Río Negro basin.

Natural and anthropogenic factors and their interactions drive stream community integrity in a North American river basin at a large spatial scale

Urbanization, agriculture, and other human activities can exert considerable influence on the health and integrity of stream ecosystems. These influences vary greatly over space, time, and scale. We investigated trends in stream biotic integrity over 19 years (1997-2016) in relation to natural and anthropogenic factors in their spatial context using data from a stream biomonitoring program in a region dominated by agricultural land use. Macroinvertebrate and fish diversity and abundance data were used to calculate four multimetric indices (MMIs) that described biotic integrity of streams from 1997 to 2016. Boosted regression trees (BRT), a machine learning technique, were used to model how stream integrity responded to catchment-level natural and anthropogenic drivers including land use, human population density, road density, runoff potential, and natural factors such as latitude and elevation. Neither natural nor anthropogenic factors were consistently more influential on the MMIs. Macroinvertebrate indices were most responsive to time, latitude, elevation, and road density. Fish indices were driven mostly by latitude and longitude, with agricultural land cover among the most influential anthropogenic factors. We concluded that 1) stream biotic integrity was mostly stable in the study region from 1997 to 2016, although macroinvertebrate MMIs had decreased approximately 10% since 2010; 2) stream biotic integrity was driven by a mix of factors including geography, human activity, and variability over yearly time intervals; 3) MMI responses to environmental drivers were nonlinear and often nonmonotonic; 4) MMI composition could influence causal inferences; and 5) although our findings were mostly consistent with the literature on drivers of stream integrity, some commonly seen patterns were not evident. Our findings highlight the utility of large-scale, publicly available spatial data for understanding drivers of stream biodiversity and illustrate some potential pitfalls of large scale, integrative analyses.

Distinctive Connectivities of Near-Stream and Watershed-Wide Land Uses Differentially Degrade Rural Aquatic Ecosystems

The water-quality effects of low-density rural land-use activities are understudied but important because of large rural land coverage. We review and synthesize spatially extensive studies of oligotrophic mountain streams in the rural Southern Appalachian Mountains, concluding that rural land-use activities significantly degrade water quality through altered and mostly enhanced landscape–stream connections, despite high forest retention. Some connections (insolation, organic inputs, root–channel interactions, stream–field connectivity, individual landowner discharges) are controlled by near-stream land-use activities, whereas others (reduced nitrogen uptake and cycling, enhanced biological nitrogen fixation, nutrient subsidy, runoff from compacted soils, road runoff delivery) are controlled by basin-wide land use. These connections merge to alter basal resources and shift fish, salamander, and invertebrate assemblages toward species tolerant of higher turbidity and summer temperatures and those more competitive in mesotrophic systems. Rural water quality problems could be mitigated substantially with well-known best management practices, raising socioecological governance questions about best management practice adoption.

Multi-biologic group analysis for an ecosystem response to longitudinal river regulation gradients

This work assesses the effects of river regulation on the diversity of different instream and riparian biological communities along a relieve gradient of disturbance in regulated rivers. Two case studies in Portugal were used, with different river regulation typology (downstream of run-of-river and reservoir dams), where regulated and free-flowing river stretches were surveyed for riparian vegetation, macrophytes, bryophytes, macroalgae, diatoms and macroinvertebrates. The assessment of the regulation effects on biological communities was approached by both biological and functional diversity analysis. Results of this investigation endorse river regulation as a major factor differentiating fluvial biological communities through an artificial environmental filtering that governs species assemblages by accentuating species traits related to river regulation tolerance. Communities' response to regulation gradient seem to be similar and insensitive to river regulation typology. Biological communities respond to this regulation gradient with different sensibilities and rates of response, with riparian vegetation and macroinvertebrates being the most responsive to river regulation and its gradient. Richness appears to be the best indicator for general fluvial ecological quality facing river regulation. Nevertheless, there are high correlations between the biological and functional diversity indices of different biological groups, which denotes biological connections indicative of a cascade of effects leading to an indirect influence of river regulation even on non-responsive facets of communities' biological and functional diversities. These results highlight the necessary holistic perspective of the fluvial system when assessing the effects of river regulation and the proposal of restoration measures.

Integrated empirical models to assess nutrient concentration in water resources: case study of a small basin in southeastern Brazil

A significant contributor to water pollution is increased nutrient concentration that results in eutrophication. Modeling approaches are crucial to understanding the dynamics of nutrients in river basins. This study integrates empirical models into Geographic Information Systems to quantify total nitrogen and phosphorus (TN and TP) load and concentration in watercourses of Brazil's Lobo Stream Hydrographic Basin (LSHB). Land use, topographic, demographic, and hydrological data were used to simulate the load and concentration of nutrients generated by point and nonpoint pollution sources. The results indicate that the simulated TN and TP load is primarily generated by nonpoint sources, 81% and 76%, respectively. The Itaqueri River subbasin is the most critical, yielding more than half of the basin's TN and TP load. About 90% of annual LSHB point pollution load is generated in the Itaqueri River subbasin, principally from the Água Branca Stream. The linear regression between simulated and observed concentration indicates significant relationships (TN, r² = 0.73 (p < 0.05), TP, r² = 0.78 (p < 0.05)). The method used was able to simulate TN and TP concentration in watercourses, but was inconsistent for point pollution, indicating it represents the dynamics of nutrients in rural basins more effectively than in urban ones. The study shows that its methodology, despite limitations, enables scientists and managers to understand and predict spatial distribution of nutrient concentration in LSHB watercourses.

Multiple metals and agricultural use affects oxidative stress biomarkers in freshwater Aegla crabs

Metals and agrochemicals are among the main aquatic contaminants, being able to trigger oxidative stress in exposed organisms. The objective of this work was to evaluate the correlation between the level of oxidative stress biomarkers in Aegla crabs (Crustacea, Anomura) with (i) the set of metals present in the streams sediment and (ii) with land uses of three hydrographic basins. The study was carried out in streams (≤ 2nd order) of hydrographic basins in southern Brazil (Basins of Rio Suzana, Rio Ligeirinho-Leãozinho and Rio Dourado). In these streams were quantified the land uses and Cu, Cr, Cd, Fe, Mn and Zn concentrations in the sediment. The enzymes Catalase (CAT) and Glutathione Reductase (GR), as well as the level of membrane lipid peroxidation (TBARS), were analyzed in adult females. The PCA analysis showed that the distribution of metals was different between the basins. Cd, Cr and Fe were correlated positively with CAT and negatively with TBARS and GR. The Dourado basin had the lowest concentrations of these three metals and the highest levels of TBARS. However, in Dourado basin there is predominance of agriculture land use, and TBARS was positively correlated with agricultural land use. Besides in Dourado basin, GR activity was higher than in the others basins, indicating a compensatory response in relation to CAT inhibition. The basins of Suzana and Ligeirinho-Leãozinho rivers had lower TBARS values, which may be due to the induction of CAT in response to metals accumulated in sediment. In summary, this work indicates that in the basins with a higher concentration of toxic metals there is an adaptive response of CAT induction, which reduces TBARS in Aegla. On the other hand, in the basin with lower metallic contamination, TBARS occurrence was primarily influenced by agricultural land use.

Potential for Mycorrhizae-Assisted Phytoremediation of Phosphorus for Improved Water Quality

During this 6th Great Extinction, freshwater quality is imperiled by upland terrestrial practices. Phosphorus, a macronutrient critical for life, can be a concerning contaminant when excessively present in waterways due to its stimulation of algal and cyanobacterial blooms, with consequences for ecosystem functioning, water use, and human and animal health. Landscape patterns from residential, industrial and agricultural practices release phosphorus at alarming rates and concentrations threaten watershed communities. In an effort to reconcile the anthropogenic effects of phosphorus pollution, several strategies are available to land managers. These include source reduction, contamination event prevention and interception. A total of 80% of terrestrial plants host mycorrhizae which facilitate increased phosphorus uptake and thus removal from soil and water. This symbiotic relationship between fungi and plants facilitates a several-fold increase in phosphorus uptake. It is surprising how little this relationship has been encouraged to mitigate phosphorus for water quality improvement. This paper explores how facilitating this symbiosis in different landscape and land-use contexts can help reduce the application of fertility amendments, prevent non-point source leaching and erosion, and intercept remineralized phosphorus before it enters surface water ecosystems. This literature survey offers promising insights into how mycorrhizae can aid ecological restoration to reconcile humans' damage to Earth's freshwater. We also identify areas where research is needed.

Unraveling consequences of soil micro- and nano-plastic pollution on soil-plant system: Implications for nitrogen (N) cycling and soil microbial activity

Micro- and nano-plastics have widely been recognized as major global environmental problem due to its widespread use and inadequate waste management. The emergence of these plastic pollutants in agroecosystem is a legitimate ecotoxicological concerns for food web exchanges. In agriculture, micro/nano plastics are originated from a variety of different agricultural management practices, such as the use of compost, sewage sludge and mulching. A range of soil properties and plant traits are affected by their presence. With the increase of plastic debris, these pollutant materials have now begun to demonstrate serious implications for key soil ecosystem functions, such as soil microbial activity and nutrient cycling. Nitrogen (N) cycle is key predictor of ecological stability and management in terrestrial ecosystem. In this review, we evaluate ecological risks associated with micro-nano plastic for soil-plant system. We also discuss the consequence of plastic pollutants, either positive or negative, on soil microbial activities. In addition, we systematically summarize both direct and hypothesized implications for N cycling in agroecosystem. We conclude that soil N transformation had showed varied effects resulting from different types and sizes of plastic polymers present in soil. While mixed effects of microplastic pollution on plant growth and yield have been observed, biodegradable plastics have appeared to pose greater risk for plant growth compared to chemical plastic polymers.

Potential impacts of a future Nordic bioeconomy on surface water quality

Nordic water bodies face multiple stressors due to human activities, generating diffuse loading and climate change. The 'green shift' towards a bio-based economy poses new demands and increased pressure on the environment. Bioeconomy-related pressures consist primarily of more intensive land management to maximise production of biomass. These activities can add considerable nutrient and sediment loads to receiving waters, posing a threat to ecosystem services and good ecological status of surface waters. The potential threats of climate change and the 'green shift' highlight the need for improved understanding of catchment-scale water and element fluxes. Here, we assess possible bioeconomy-induced pressures on Nordic catchments and associated impacts on water quality. We suggest measures to protect water quality under the 'green shift' and propose 'road maps' towards sustainable catchment management. We also identify knowledge gaps and highlight the importance of long-term monitoring data and good models to evaluate changes in water quality, improve understanding of bioeconomy-related impacts, support mitigation measures and maintain ecosystem services.

Thinking Upstream: How Do Landowner Attitudes Affect Forested Riparian Buffer Coverage?

Little is known about the conservation of intermittent and ephemeral streams on private lands despite the importance of these waterways for ecosystem and hydrologic outcomes. Our case study of a watershed of central New York State considers landowners' attitudes toward perennial and intermittent streams on their property. We combine social science survey responses with aerial imagery to assess the underlying drivers of landowners' attitudes about their streams, and the extent to which these attitudes shape riparian conservation behaviors on their properties. We find that stream flow regularity directly and positively shapes landowners' stream attitudes, with landowners of perennially flowing streams holding their streams in higher regard than landowners with streams of intermittent flows. Landowners with forest and wetlands as the primary land cover had more riparian buffer coverage on their properties than agricultural landowners. Landowners with a weaker perceived land use efficacy also had greater buffer coverage. Our findings suggest that landowners in headwater regions do not perceive their influence on downstream water quality, and that outreach efforts should emphasize the importance and conservation of headwater streams and associated water quality outcomes.

Exposure and potential effects of pesticides and pharmaceuticals in protected streams of the US National park Service southeast region

Globally, protected areas offer refugia for a broad range of taxa including threatened and endangered species. In the United States (US), the National Park Service (NPS) manages public lands to preserve biodiversity, but increasing park visitation and development of surrounding landscapes increase exposure to and effects from bioactive contaminants. The risk (exposure and hazard) to NPS protected-stream ecosystems within the highly urbanized southeast region (SER) from bioactive contaminants was assessed in five systems based on 334 pesticide and pharmaceutical analytes in water and 119 pesticides in sediment. Contaminant mixtures were common across all sampled systems, with approximately 24% of the unique analytes (80/334) detected at least once and 15% (49/334) detected in half of the surface-water samples. Pharmaceuticals were observed more frequently than pesticides, consistent with riparian buffers and concomitant spatial separation from non-point pesticide sources in four of the systems. To extrapolate exposure data to biological effects space, site-specific cumulative exposure-activity ratios (Σ_EAR) were calculated for detected surface-water contaminants with available ToxCast data; common exceedances of a 0.001 Σ_EAR effects-screening threshold raise concerns for molecular toxicity and possible, sub-lethal effects to non-target, aquatic vertebrates. The results illustrate the need for continued management of protected resources to reduce contaminant exposure and preserve habitat quality, including prioritization of conservation practices (riparian buffers) near stream corridors and increased engagement with upstream/up-gradient property owners and municipal wastewater facilities.

Sensors Applied for the Detection of Pesticides and Heavy Metals in Freshwaters

Water is essential for every life living on the planet. However, we are facing a more serious situation such as water pollution since the industrial revolution. Fortunately, many efforts have been done to alleviate/restore water quality in freshwaters. Numerous sensors have been developed to monitor the dynamic change of water quality for ecological, early warning, and protection reasons. In the present review, we briefly introduced the pollution status of two major pollutants, i.e., pesticides and heavy metals, in freshwaters worldwide. Then, we collected data on the sensors applied to detect the two categories of pollutants in freshwaters. Special focuses were given on the sensitivity of sensors indicated by the limit of detection (LOD), sensor types, and applied waterbodies. Our results showed that most of the sensors can be applied for stream and river water. The average LOD was72.53±12.69 ng/ml (n=180) for all pesticides, which is significantly higher than that for heavy metals (65.36±47.51 ng/ml,n=117). However, the LODs of a considerable part of pesticides and heavy metal sensors were higher than the criterion maximum concentration for aquatic life or the maximum contaminant limit concentration for drinking water. For pesticide sensors, the average LODs did not differ among insecticides (63.83±17.42 ng/ml,n=87), herbicides (98.06±23.39 ng/ml,n=71), and fungicides (24.60±14.41 ng/ml,n=22). The LODs that differed among sensor types with biosensors had the highest sensitivity, while electrochemical optical and biooptical sensors showed the lowest sensitivity. The sensitivity of heavy metal sensors varied among heavy metals and sensor types. Most of the sensors were targeted on lead, cadmium, mercury, and copper using electrochemical methods. These results imply that future development of pesticides and heavy metal sensors should (1) enhance the sensitivity to meet the requirements for the protection of aquatic ecosystems and human health and (2) cover more diverse pesticides and heavy metals especially those toxic pollutants that are widely used and frequently been detected in freshwaters (e.g., glyphosate, fungicides, zinc, chromium, and arsenic).

Effects of anthropic actions and forest areas on a neotropical aquatic ecosystem

This research aimed to understand how anthropic impacts generated by sugarcane plantations and urban development affect a Neotropical river in northeastern Brazil, through the evaluation of the relationships between the local ichthyofauna and environmental variables, and different patterns of land cover, in addition to seasonal variation. Monthly samples of environmental parameters and icthyofauna were taken from September 2013 to August 2014 in the lower course of the Capibaribe River (PE, Brazil). Environmental parameters varied significantly among land cover and seasons, grouping separately samples from the Anthropized and Forested areas. Highest values of phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, fecal coliform (E. coli) and ammoniacal nitrogen, together with the lowest dissolved oxygen concentrations, were recorded in the Anthropized areas. Species richness, evenness, and diversity of fishes were highest in the Forested areas, while abundance was highest in the Anthropized areas. Our results emphasize the importance of riparian forests, since the forested sites had best environmental conditions and ichthyofauna with higher diversity and evenness. Impacts caused by sugarcane plantations and urban development resulted in the simplification of the ichthyofauna and nutrient enrichment, which underpinned a process of eutrophication. Our results reinforce the need for the development of management plans that encourage rational land use practices, the protection of aquatic ecosystems, the recovery of riverside areas, and the conservation of local biodiversity.

Identifying multiple stressors that influence eutrophication in a Finnish agricultural river

In Finland, a recent ecological classification of surface waters showed that the rivers and coastal waters need attention to improve their ecological state. We combined eco-hydrological and empirical models to study chlorophyll-a concentration as an indicator of eutrophication in a small agricultural river. We used a modified story-and-simulation method to build three storylines for possible changes in future land use due to climate change and political change. The main objective in the first storyline is to stimulate economic activity but also to promote the sustainable and efficient use of resources. The second storyline is based on the high awareness but poor regulation of environmental protection, and the third is to survive as individual countries instead of being part of a unified Europe. We assumed trade of agricultural products to increase to countries outside Europe. We found that chlorophyll-a concentration in the river depended on total phosphorus concentration. In addition, there was a positive synergistic interaction between total phosphorus and water temperature. In future storylines, chlorophyll-a concentration increased due to land use and climate change. Climate change mainly had an indirect influence via increasing nutrient losses from intensified agriculture. We found that well-designed agri-environmental measures had the potential to decrease nutrient loading from fields, as long as the predicted increase in temperature remained under 2 °C. However, we were not able to achieve the nutrient reduction stated in current water protection targets. In addition, the ecological status of the river deteriorated. The influence of temperature on chlorophyll-a growth indicates that novel measures for shading rivers to decrease water temperature may be needed in the future.