A combined quantitative property-property relationship (QPPR) for estimating packaging-food and solid material-water partition coefficients of organic compounds

Machine learning for predicting chemical migration from food packaging materials to foods

Food contact chemicals (FCCs) can migrate from packaging materials to food posing an issue of exposure to FCCs of toxicity concern. Compared to costly experiments, computational methods can be utilized to assess the migration potentials for various migration scenarios for further experimental investigation that can potentially accelerate the migration assessment. This study developed a nonlinear machine learning method utilizing chemical properties, material type, food type and temperature to predict chemical migration from package to food. Nine nonlinear algorithms were evaluated for their prediction performance. The ensemble model leveraging multiple algorithms provides state-of-the-art performance that is much better than previous linear regression models. The developed prediction models were subsequently applied to profile the migration potential of FCCs of high toxicity concern. The models are expected to be useful for accelerating the assessment of migration of FCCs from package to foods.

Advances in computational methods along the exposure to toxicological response paradigm

Human health risk assessment is a function of chemical toxicity, bioavailability to reach target biological tissues, and potential environmental exposure. These factors are complicated by many physiological, biochemical, physical and lifestyle factors. Furthermore, chemical health risk assessment is challenging in view of the large, and continually increasing, number of chemicals found in the environment. These challenges highlight the need to prioritize resources for the efficient and timely assessment of those environmental chemicals that pose greatest health risks. Computational methods, either predictive or investigative, are designed to assist in this prioritization in view of the lack of cost prohibitive in vivo experimental data. Computational methods provide specific and focused toxicity information using in vitro high throughput screening (HTS) assays. Information from the HTS assays can be converted to in vivo estimates of chemical levels in blood or target tissue, which in turn are converted to in vivo dose estimates that can be compared to exposure levels of the screened chemicals. This manuscript provides a review for the landscape of computational methods developed and used at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) highlighting their potentials and challenges.

Modeling the migration of chemicals from food contact materials to food: The MERLIN-expo/VERMEER toolbox

Evaluating the migration of chemicals from food contact materials (FCM) into food is a key step in the safety assessment of such materials. In this paper, a simple mechanistic model describing the migration of chemicals from FCM to food was combined with quantitative property-property relationships (QPPRs) for the prediction of diffusion coefficients and FCM-Food partition coefficients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the performance of these operational models in the prediction of a chemical's concentration in food in contact with a plastic monolayer FCM. A comparison to experimental migration values reported in literature was conducted. Deterministic simulations showed a good match between predicted and experimental values. The tested models can be used to provide insights in the amount and the type of toxicological data that are needed for the safety evaluation of the FCM substance. Uncertainty in QPPRs used for describing the processes of both diffusion in FCM and partition at the FCM-Food interface was included in the analysis. Combining uncertainty in QPPR predictions, it was shown that the third quartile (75th percentile) derived from probabilistic calculations can be used as a conservative value in the prediction of chemical concentration in food, with reasonable safety factors.

Prediction models with multiple machine learning algorithms for POPs: The calculation of PDMS-air partition coefficient from molecular descriptor

Polydimethylsiloxane-air partition coefficient (K_PDMS-air) is a key parameter for passive sampling to measure POPs concentrations. In this study, 13 QSPR models were developed to predict K_PDMS-air, with two descriptor selection methods (MLR and RF) and seven algorithms (MLR, LASSO, ANN, SVM, kNN, RF and GBDT). All models were based on a data set of 244 POPs from 13 different categories. The diverse model evaluation parameters calculated from training and test set were used for internal and external verification. Notably, the R_adj², Q_BOOT² and Q_ext² are 0.995, 0.980 and 0.951 respectively for GBDT model, showing remarkable superiority in fitting, robustness and predictability compared with other models. The discovery that molecular size, branches and types of the bonds were the main internal factors affecting the partition process was revealed by mechanism explanation. Different from the existing QSPR models based on single category compounds, the models developed herein considered multiple classes compounds, so that its application domain was more comprehensive. Therefore, the obtained models can fill the data gap of missing experimental K_PDMS-air values for compounds in the application range, and help researchers better understand the distribution behavior of POPs from the perspective of molecular structure.

Estimating mouthing exposure to chemicals in children's products

BACKGROUND

Existing models for estimating children's exposure to chemicals through mouthing currently depends on the availability of chemical- and material-specific experimental migration rates, only covering a few dozen chemicals.

OBJECTIVE

This study objective is hence to develop a mouthing exposure model to predict migration into saliva, mouthing exposure, and related health risk from a wide range of chemical-material combinations in children's products.

METHODS

We collected experimental data on chemical migration from different products into saliva for multiple substance groups and materials, identifying chemical concentration and diffusion coefficient as main properties of influence. To predict migration rates into saliva, we adapted a previously developed migration model for chemicals in food packaging materials. We also developed a regression model based on identified chemical and material properties.

RESULTS

Our migration predictions correlate well with experimental data (R2 = 0.85) and vary widely from 8 × 10-7 to 32.7 µg/10 cm2/min, with plasticizers in PVC showing the highest values. Related mouthing exposure doses vary across chemicals and materials from a median of 0.005 to 253 µg/kgBW/d. Finally, we combined exposure estimates with toxicity information to yield hazard quotients and identify chemicals of concern for average and upper bound mouthing behavior scenarios.

SIGNIFICANCE

The proposed model can be applied for predicting migration rates for hundreds of chemical-material combinations to support high-throughput screening.

An integrated exposure and pharmacokinetic modeling framework for assessing population-scale risks of phthalates and their substitutes

To effectively incorporate in vitro-in silico-based methods into the regulation of consumer product safety, a quantitative connection between product phthalate concentrations and in vitro bioactivity data must be established for the general population. We developed, evaluated, and demonstrated a modeling framework that integrates exposure and pharmacokinetic models to convert product phthalate concentrations into population-scale risks for phthalates and their substitutes. A probabilistic exposure model was developed to generate the distribution of multi-route exposures based on product phthalate concentrations, chemical properties, and human activities. Pharmacokinetic models were developed to simulate population toxicokinetics using Bayesian analysis via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Both exposure and pharmacokinetic models demonstrated good predictive capability when compared with worldwide studies. The distributions of exposures and pharmacokinetics were integrated to predict the population distributions of internal dosimetry. The predicted distributions showed reasonable agreement with the U.S. biomonitoring surveys of urinary metabolites. The "source-to-outcome" local sensitivity analysis revealed that food contact materials had the greatest impact on body burden for di(2-ethylhexyl) adipate (DEHA), di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP), di(isononyl) cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate (DINCH), and di(2-propylheptyl) phthalate (DPHP), whereas the body burden of diethyl phthalate (DEP) was most sensitive to the concentration in personal care products. The upper bounds of predicted plasma concentrations showed no overlap with ToxCast in vitro bioactivity values. Compared with the in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) approach, the integrated modeling framework has significant advantages in mapping product phthalate concentrations to multi-route risks, and thus is of great significance for regulatory use with a relatively low input requirement. Further integration with new approach methodologies will facilitate these in vitro-in silico-based risk assessments for a broad range of products containing an equally broad range of chemicals.

High Throughput Risk and Impact Screening of Chemicals in Consumer Products

The ubiquitous presence of more than 80,000 chemicals in thousands of consumer products used on a daily basis stresses the need for screening a broader set of chemicals than the traditional well-studied suspect chemicals. This high-throughput screening combines stochastic chemical-product usage with mass balance-based exposure models and toxicity data to prioritize risks associated with household products. We first characterize product usage using the stochastic SHEDS-HT model and chemical content in common household products from the CPDat database, the chemical amounts applied daily varying over more than six orders of magnitude, from mg to kg. We then estimate multi-pathways near- and far-field exposures for 5,500 chemical-product combinations, applying an extended USEtox model to calculate product intake fractions ranging from 0.001 to ∼1, and exposure doses varying over more than nine orders of magnitude. Combining exposure doses with chemical-specific dose-responses and reference doses shows that risks can be substantial for multiple home maintenance products, such as paints or paint strippers, for some home-applied pesticides, leave-on personal care products, and cleaning products. Sixty percent of the chemical-product combinations have hazard quotients exceeding 1, and 9% of the combinations have lifetime cancer risks exceeding 10^-4 . Population-level impacts of household products ingredients can be substantial, representing 5 to 100 minutes of healthy life lost per day, with users' exposures up to 10³ minutes per day. To address this issue, present mass balance-based models are already able to provide exposure estimates for both users and populations. This screening study shows large variations of up to 10 orders of magnitude in impact across both chemicals and product combinations, demonstrating that prioritization based on hazard only is not acceptable, since it would neglect orders of magnitude variations in both product usage and exposure that need to be quantified. To address this, the USEtox suite of mass balance-based models is already able to provide exposure estimates for thousands of product-chemical combinations for both users and populations. The present study calls for more scrutiny of most impacting chemical-product combinations, fully ensuring from a regulatory perspective consumer product safety for high-end users and using protective measures for users.

Assessing Human Exposure to SVOCs in Materials, Products, and Articles: A Modular Mechanistic Framework

A critical review of the current state of knowledge of chemical emissions from indoor sources, partitioning among indoor compartments, and the ensuing indoor exposure leads to a proposal for a modular mechanistic framework for predicting human exposure to semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs). Mechanistically consistent source emission categories include solid, soft, frequent contact, applied, sprayed, and high temperature sources. Environmental compartments are the gas phase, airborne particles, settled dust, indoor surfaces, and clothing. Identified research needs are the development of dynamic emission models for several of the source emission categories and of estimation strategies for critical model parameters. The modular structure of the framework facilitates subsequent inclusion of new knowledge, other chemical classes of indoor pollutants, and additional mechanistic processes relevant to human exposure indoors. The framework may serve as the foundation for developing an open-source community model to better support collaborative research and improve access for application by stakeholders. Combining exposure estimates derived using this framework with toxicity data for different end points and toxicokinetic mechanisms will accelerate chemical risk prioritization, advance effective chemical management decisions, and protect public health.

Chemicals of concern in plastic toys

We present a list of Chemicals of Concern (CoCs) in plastic toys. We started from available studies reporting chemical composition of toys to group plastic materials, as well as to gather mass fractions and function of chemicals in these materials. Chemical emissions from plastic toys and subsequent human exposures were then estimated using a series of models and a coupled near-field and far-field exposure assessment framework. Comparing human doses with reference doses shows high Hazard Quotients of up to 387 and cancer risk calculated using cancer slope factors of up to 0.0005. Plasticizers in soft plastic materials show the highest risk, with 31 out of the 126 chemicals identified as CoCs, with sum of Hazard Quotients >1 or child cancer risk >10^-6. Our results indicate that a relevant amount of chemicals used in plastic toy materials may pose a non-negligible health risk to children, calling for more refined investigations and more human- and eco-friendly alternatives. The 126 chemicals identified as CoCs were compared with other existing regulatory prioritization lists. While some of our chemicals appear in other lists, we also identified additional priority chemicals that are not yet covered elsewhere and thus require further attention. We finally derive for all considered chemicals the maximum Acceptable Chemical Content (ACC) in the grouped toy plastic materials as powerful green chemistry tool to check whether chemical alternatives could create substantial risks.

Versatile in silico modeling of partition coefficients of organic compounds in polydimethylsiloxane using linear and nonlinear methods

Environmental fate, behavior and effects of hazardous organic compounds have recently received great attention in diverse environmental phases, including water, atmosphere, soil and sediment. Considering polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) fibers were validated for the wide application in the determination of partition behavior in passive sampling, in this work, several in silico models were established to predict PDMS-water (K_PDMS-w), PDMS-air (K_PDMS-a) and PDMS-seawater partition coefficients (K_PDMS-sw) of diverse chemicals. This is an attempt to combine conventional linear method and popular nonlinear algorithm for the estimation of partition coefficients between PDMS and different environmental media. All of the developed models showed satisfactory goodness-of-fit with high adjusted correlation coefficient (R²_adj) and were validated to be robust, stable and predictable by various internal and external validation techniques, deriving a wide series of statistical checks. Moreover, it was found that hydrophobicity, polarizability, charge distribution and molecular size of compounds contributed significantly to the model development by interpreting the selected descriptors. Based on the broad applicability domains (ADs), the current study provides suitable tools to fill the experimental data gap for other compounds and to help researchers better understand the mechanistic basis of adsorption behavior of PDMS.

QSPR study on the polyacrylate-water partition coefficients of hydrophobic organic compounds

The partition coefficient is essential for the analysis of organic chemicals using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) techniques. In this study, a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model was developed with chemical descriptors for the prediction of the polyacrylate (PA)-water partition coefficient (K_PA-w). The major variables influencing K_PA-w in the QSPR model were CrippenlogP (crippen octanal-water partition coefficient), RNCG (relative negative charge-most negative charge/total negative charge), VE2_Dzv (average coefficient sum of the last eigenvector from the Barysz matrix/weighted by van der Waals volume), and ATSC4v (centred Broto-Moreau autocorrelation-lag 4/weighted by van der Waals volume). The relative determination coefficient (R²) and cross-validation coefficient (Q²) were 0.898 and 0.858, respectively, which implied that the model had excellent robustness. Mechanistic interpretation suggested that the factors affecting the partitioning process between PA and water are the hydrophobicity, relative negative charge, and van der Waals volume of a chemical. The results of this study provide a good tool for predicting the log K_PA-w values of diverse hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) within the applicability domain to reduce experimental costs and the time required for innovation.

Development of pp-LFER and QSPR models for predicting the diffusion coefficients of hydrophobic organic compounds in LDPE

Diffusion coefficient (D) is important to evaluate the performance of passive samplers and to monitor the concentration of chemicals effectively. Herein, we developed a polyparameter linear free energy relationship (pp-LFER) model and a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model for the prediction of diffusion coefficients of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) in low density polyethylene (LDPE). A dataset of 120 various chemicals was used to develop both models. The pp-LFER model was developed with two descriptors (V and E) and the statistical parameters of the model showed satisfactory results. As a further exploration of the diffusion behavior of the compounds, a QSPR model with five descriptors (ETA_Alpha, ASP-6, IC1, TDB6r and ATSC2v) was constructed with adjusted determination coefficient (R²) of 0.949 and cross-validation coefficient (Q_Loo²) of 0.941. The regression results indicated that both models had satisfactory goodness-of-fit and robustness. This study proves that pp-LFER and QSPR approaches are available for the prediction of log D values for the hydrophobic organic compounds within the applicability domain.