A comparison of statistical methods and multi-criteria decision making to map flood hazard susceptibility in Northern Iran

Assessment of wetland ecosystem health in Rarh Region, India through P-S-R (pressure-state-response) model

The current study attempted to assess wetland ecosystem health (EH) in the Murshidabad district's Rarh tract using the P-S-R (Pressure-State-Response) model and machine learning (ML) algorithms and validated it with a field-based validation approach as well as conventional validation approaches. To assess the ecosystem's health, 27 metrics were used to monitor the wetlands' pressure, state, and response. All of the models found that 46.1 % of wetlands in strong EH zones have transformed to 11.41 % in relatively fragile EH zones during the previous thirty years, demonstrating a progressive loss of EH quality throughout larger wetland areas. All of the applied models were deemed to be acceptable based on the results of the model validation process, however, the Random Forest (RF) model performed exceptionally well. The deterioration of EH in the wetlands happened due to the rapid expansion of settlement areas and agricultural land. So, the findings of the study deepen our knowledge about EH in the Rarh tract's wetlands, assisting decision-makers in creating sustainable wetland management strategies.

Impact of climate change on future flood susceptibility projections under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios in South Asia using artificial intelligence algorithms

This study investigated the impact of climate change on flood susceptibility in six South Asian countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bharat (India), Nepal, and Pakistan-under two distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-5.8, for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. To predict flood susceptibility, we employed three artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms: the K-nearest neighbor (KNN), conditional inference random forest (CIRF), and regularized random forest (RRF). Predictions were based on data from 2452 historical flood events, alongside climatic variables measured over monthly, seasonal, and annual timeframes. The innovative aspect of this research is the emphasis on using climatic variables across these progressively condensed timeframes, specifically addressing eight precipitation factors. The performance evaluation, employing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metric, identified the RRF model as the most accurate, with the highest AUC of 0.94 during the testing phase, followed by the CIRF (AUC = 0.91) and the KNN (AUC = 0.86). An analysis of variable importance highlighted the substantial role of certain climatic factors, namely precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation during the wettest month, in the modeling of flood susceptibility in South Asia. The resultant flood susceptibility maps demonstrated the influence of climate change scenarios on susceptibility classifications, signalling a dynamic landscape of flood-prone areas over time. The findings revealed variable trends under different climate change scenarios and periods, with marked differences in the percentage of areas classified as having high and very high flood susceptibility. Overall, this study advances our understanding of how climate change affects flood susceptibility in South Asia and offers an essential tool for assessing and managing flood risks in the region.

Building Vulnerability to Landslides: Broad-Scale Assessment in Xinxing County, China

This study develops a model to assess building vulnerability across Xinxing County by integrating quantitative derivation with machine learning techniques. Building vulnerability is characterized as a function of landslide hazard risk and building resistance, wherein landslide hazard risk is derived using CNN (1D) for nine hazard-causing factors (elevation, slope, slope shape, geotechnical body type, geological structure, vegetation cover, watershed, and land-use type) and landslide sites; building resistance is determined through quantitative derivation. After evaluating the building susceptibility of all the structures, the susceptibility of each village is then calculated through subvillage statistics, which are aimed at identifying the specific needs of each area. Simultaneously, different landslide hazard classes are categorized, and an analysis of the correlation between building resistance and susceptibility reveals that building susceptibility exhibits a positive correlation with landslide hazard and a negative correlation with building resistance. Following a comprehensive assessment of building susceptibility in Xinxing County, a sample encompassing different landslide intensity areas and susceptibility classes of buildings was chosen for on-site validation, thus yielding an accuracy rate of the results as high as 94.5%.

Mapping flood susceptibility with PROMETHEE multi-criteria analysis method

On a global scale, flooding is the most devastating natural hazard with an increasingly negative impact on humans. It is necessary to accurately detect flood-prone areas. This research introduces and evaluates the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) integrated with GIS in the field of flood susceptibility in comparison with two conventional multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods: analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The Spercheios river basin in Greece, which is a highly susceptible area, was selected as a case study. The application of these approaches and the completion of the study requires the creation of a geospatial database consisting of eight flood conditioning factors (elevation, slope, NDVI, TWI, geology, LULC, distance to river network, rainfall) and a flood inventory of flood (564 sites) and non-flood locations for validation. The weighting of the factors is based on the AHP method. The output values were imported into GIS and interpolated to map the flood susceptibility zones. The models were evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) and the statistical metrics of accuracy, root mean squared error (RMSE), and frequency ratio (FR). The PROMETHEE model is proven to be the most efficient with AUC = 97.21%. Statistical metrics confirm the superiority of PROMETHEE with 87.54% accuracy and 0.12 RMSE. The output maps revealed that the regions most prone to flooding are arable land in lowland areas with low gradients and quaternary formations. Very high susceptible zone covers approximately 15.00-19.50% of the total area and have the greatest FR values. The susceptibility maps need to be considered in the preparation of a flood risk management plan and utilized as a tool to mitigate the adverse impacts of floods.

Assessment of machine learning algorithms and new hybrid multi-criteria analysis for flood hazard and mapping

Floods in Iran cause a lot of damage in different places every year. The 2019 floods of the Gorgan and Atrak rivers basins in the north of Iran were one of the most destructive events in this country. Therefore, investigating the flood hazard of these areas is very necessary to manage probable future floods. For this purpose, in the present study, the capability of Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms was investigated in combination with Sentinel series and Landsat-8 images to prepare the 2019 flood map. Then, the flood hazard map of these areas was prepared using the new hybrid Fuzzy Best Worse Model-Weighted Multi-Criteria Analysis (FBWM-WMCA) model. According to the results of the FBWM-WMCA model, 38.58%, 50.18%, 11.10%, and 0.14% of the Gorgan river basin and 45.11%, 49.96%, 4.17%, and 0.076% of the Atrak river basin are in high, medium, low, and no hazards, respectively. The highest flood hazard areas in Gorgan and Atrak rivers basins in the north, northwest, west, and east, and south and southwest are mostly at medium flood hazard. Also, the results of RF and SVM algorithms with an overall accuracy of more than 85% for Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and Landsat-8 images and 80% for Sentinel-3 images indicate that the flooding is related to the western, southwestern, and northern regions including agricultural, bare lands and built up. According to the obtained results and the efficiency of the FBWM-WMCA model, the Gorgan and Atrak rivers basins need proper planning for flood hazard management.

Pluvial flood risk assessment for 2021-2050 under climate change scenarios in the Metropolitan City of Venice

Pluvial flood is a natural hazard occurring from extreme rainfall events that affect millions of people around the world, causing damages to their properties and lives. The magnitude of projected climate risks indicates the urgency of putting in place actions to increase climate resilience. Through this study, we develop a Machine Learning (ML) model to predict pluvial flood risk under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for future scenarios of precipitation for the period 2021-2050, considering different triggering factors and precipitation patterns. The analysis is focused on the case study area of the Metropolitan City of Venice (MCV) and considers 212 historical pluvial flood events occurred in the timeframe 1995-2020. The methodology developed implements spatio-temporal constraints in the ML model to improve pluvial flood risk prediction under future scenarios of climate change. Accordingly, a cross-validation approach was applied to frame a model able to predict pluvial flood at any time and space. This was complemented with historical pluvial flood data and the selection of nine triggering factors representative of territorial features that contribute to pluvial flood events. Logistic Regression was the most reliable model, with the highest AUC score, providing robust result both in the validation and test set. Maximum cumulative rainfall of 14 days was the most important feature contributing to pluvial flood occurrence. The final output is represented by a suite of risk maps of the flood-prone areas in the MCV for each quarter of the year for the period 1995-2020 based on historical data, and risk maps for each quarter of the period 2021-2050 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 of future precipitation scenarios. Overall, the results underline a consistent increase in extreme events (i.e., very high and extremely high risk of pluvial flooding) under the more catastrophic scenario RCP8.5 for future decades compared to the baseline.

Land capability assessment of Sali watershed for agricultural suitability using a multi-criteria-based decision-making approach

The assessment of land's agricultural potential, through a land capability evaluation, delves into its innate limitations, crop suitability, and responses to soil management. In regions where agriculture reigns supreme, socio-economic development is inexorably linked to the agricultural sector, making the optimal utilization of land resources an imperative pursuit. The pursuit of this objective is underpinned by the selection of new agricultural areas and the determination of which crops thrive in specific locations, for which the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method emerges as an ideal choice. This comprehensive research endeavour revolves around the intricate interplay of climatic, edaphic, fertility, topographical, and socioeconomic determinants. Within this intricate web, a total of 15 determinants play a pivotal role, including precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil texture, drainage, soil organic-carbon, nitrogen content, pH, clay content, river proximity, land use/land cover (LULC), slope, temperature, social suitability, irrigation density, and elevation. To weigh these determinants, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) comes into play, ultimately revealing that the dominant influences on land capability stem from the realms of climate and soil. The watershed's terrain analysis revealed a distinct suitability contrast: 168 km2 highly suitable, 181.3 km2 moderate, and 429 km2 low. The eastern and northeastern sectors were notably promising. Rigorous validation, using the ROC curve, confirmed the reliability and precision. The process yielded an impressive 83.2% AUC, unequivocally confirming the assessment's remarkable accuracy and dependability.

Dominant flood types in mountains catchments: Identification and change analysis for the landscape planning

The classification of floods may be a supporting tool for decision-makers in regard to water management, including flood protection. The main objective of this work is the classification of flood generation mechanisms in 28 catchments of the upper Vistula basin. A significant innovation in this study lies in the utilization of decision trees for flood classification. The methodology has so far been applied in the Alpine region. The analysis reveals that peak daily precipitation in the catchments mainly occurs in summer, particularly from June to August. Maximal daily snowmelt typically happens at the end of winter (March to April) and occasionally in November. Winter peaks are observed in March to April and, in some areas, in November to December, while summer peaks occur in May and, in specific catchments, in October. Higher peak flows for annual floods are noted in March to April and June to August. Most annual floods in the Upper Vistula basin are classified as Rain-on-Snow Floods (RoSFs) or Lowland River Floods (LRFs). LRFs contribute from 19% to almost 72%, while RoSFs range from 18% to 75%. In Season 1 (summer), most seasonal floods are identified as LRFs (51%-100%), with very few as RoSFs (0%-46.9%). In Season 2 (winter), the opposite pattern is observed, with most RoSFs (48.4%-97.9%) and fewer LRFs (0%-20.6%). While there are changes in flood patterns, they are not statistically significant. Conducted studies and obtained results can be useful for the preparation of flood prevention documentation and for flood management in general.

Flood susceptibility mapping using Sentinel 1 and frequency ratio technique in Jinjiram River watershed, India

Assam is one of the most flood-prone states in India, and the state frequently experiences catastrophic floods that cause significant damage in terms of loss of life and property. Flood susceptibility is considered the most essential and crucial input for managing floodplains and fostering local and regional development. This study focuses on the generation of flood susceptibility maps using the Frequency Ratio (FR) technique and microwave remote sensing inputs in the Jinjiram watershed which experienced disastrous flooding in 2020. The study has been carried out by taking into consideration of different morphological, lithological, and hydrological factors. In this study the flood inventory map was created by extracting the time series SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) Sentinel 1 GRD (Ground Range Detected) images of flooded areas for the past 5 years, from 2016 to 2020. A total of 72 inventory samples were identified of which 70% of total flooded samples were chosen for training and 30% for model testing at random basis. Applying these FR methods, the study determines a range of flood susceptibility which was then divided into five classes, from very low to very high. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the accuracy of flood susceptibility maps generated using FR models. The AUC of ROC in flood susceptibility mapping is 0.81167 achieved, corresponding to a prediction accuracy of 81.17%. The findings can be used to calculate risk, develop flood control measures and infrastructural policies, and formulate sustainable water management policies for the watershed.

Novel integrated modelling based on multiplicative long short-term memory (mLSTM) deep learning model and ensemble multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models for mapping flood risk

Flood risk assessment is a key step in flood management and mitigation, and flood risk maps provide a quantitative measure of flood risk. Therefore, integration of deep learning - an updated version of machine learning techniques - and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models can generate high-resolution flood risk maps. In this study, a novel integrated approach has been developed based on multiplicative long short-term memory (mLSTM) deep learning models and an MCDM ensemble model to map flood risk in the Minab-Shamil plain, southern Iran. A flood hazard map generated by the mLSTM model is based on nine critical features selected by GrootCV (distance to the river, vegetation cover, variables extracted from DEM (digital elevation model) and river density) and a flood inventory map (70% and 30% data were randomly selected as training and test datasets, respectively). The values of all criteria used to assess model accuracy performance (except Cohens kappa for train dataset = 86, and for test dataset = 84) achieved values greater than 90, which indicates that the mLSTM model performed very well for the generation of a spatial flood hazard map. According to the spatial flood hazard map produced by mLSTM, the very low, low, moderate, high and very high classes cover 26%, 35.3%, 20.5%, 11.2% and 7% of the total area, respectively. Flood vulnerability maps were produced by the combinative distance-based assessment (CODAS), the evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS), and the multi-objective optimization on the basis of simple ratio analysis (MOOSRA), and then validated by Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (SRC). Based on the SRC, the three models CODAS, EDAS, and MOOSRA showed high-ranking correlations with each other, and all three models were then used in the ensemble process. According to the CODAS-EDAS-MOOSRA ensemble model, 21.5%, 34.2%, 23.7%, 13%, and 7.6% of the total area were classified as having a very low to very high flood vulnerability, respectively. Finally, a flood risk map was generated by the combination of flood hazard and vulnerability maps produced by the mLSTM and MCDM ensemble model. According to the flood risk map, 27.4%, 34.3%, 14.8%, 15.7%, and 7.8% of the total area were classified as having a very low, low, moderate, high, and very high flood risk, respectively. Overall, the integration of mLSTM and the MCDM ensemble is a promising tool for generating precise flood risk maps and provides a useful reference for flood risk management.

Flood risk assessment of Wuhan, China, using a multi-criteria analysis model with the improved AHP-Entropy method

Floods are one of the most frequent global natural hazards resulting in significant human and economic losses. Therefore, assessing and mapping flood hazard levels is essential to reduce the severity of future flood disasters. This study developed an integrated methodology to evaluate flood risk using an improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Entropy Weight (AHP-EW) method based on cosine similarity (COS-AHP-EW). This method has more scientific results because it combines subjective and objective information. The proposed method's viability was then tested in Wuhan, China. Fourteen flood-inducing indicators were identified for the flood hazard, vulnerability, and restorability index system, with the indicator weights calculated using the COS-AHP-EW. This study utilized the Jenks method to develop the Wuhan flood risk map. We observed that the very high risk and high-risk areas covered 2.43% and 11.54% of the total study area and were mainly distributed in the highest economic and urbanization development and low-permeability districts, respectively. The validation with the historical waterlogging points reflected the accuracy and reliability of the COS-AHP-EW. The superiority of the proposed method was further verified by comparing it with single-evaluation methods (AHP and Entropy Weight) and another combined weight method (combined AHP-EW based on ideal point theory, namely, Ideal-AHP-EW). The comparison results indicated that the COS-AHP-EW was more accurate at predicting the risk in flood-prone area. Flood risk maps generated using the COS-AHP-EW could be applied to improve flood risk assessments, and the proposed method could be extended to other study areas to provide reliable flood management information.

Modeling flood susceptibility zones using hybrid machine learning models of an agricultural dominant landscape of India

Flooding events are determining a significant amount of damages, in terms of economic loss and also casualties in Asia and Pacific areas. Due to complexity and ferocity of severe flooding, predicting flood-prone areas is a difficult task. Thus, creating flood susceptibility maps at local level is though challenging but an inevitable task. In order to implement a flood management plan for the Balrampur district, an agricultural dominant landscape of India, and strengthen its resilience, flood susceptibility modeling and mapping are carried out. In the present study, three hybrid machine learning (ML) models, namely, fuzzy-ANN (artificial neural network), fuzzy-RBF (radial basis function), and fuzzy-SVM (support vector machine) with 12 topographic, hydrological, and other flood influencing factors were used to determine flood-susceptible zones. To ascertain the relationship between the occurrences and flood influencing factors, correlation attribute evaluation (CAE) and multicollinearity diagnostic tests were used. The predictive power of these models was validated and compared using a variety of statistical techniques, including Wilcoxon signed-rank, t-paired tests and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results show that fuzzy-RBF model outperformed other hybrid ML models for modeling flood susceptibility, followed by fuzzy-ANN and fuzzy-SVM. Overall, these models have shown promise in identifying flood-prone areas in the basin and other basins around the world. The outcomes of the work would benefit policymakers and government bodies to capture the flood-affected areas for necessary planning, action, and implementation.

Multicriteria analysis for flood risk map development: a hierarchical method applied to Brazilian cities

Floods have caused socio-economic and environmental damage globally and, thus, require research. Several factors influence flooding events, such as extreme rainfall, physical characteristics, and local anthropogenic factors; therefore, such factors are essential for mapping flood risk areas and enabling measures that mitigate the damage they cause. This study aimed to map and analyze regions susceptible to flood risk in three different study areas belonging to the same Atlantic Forest biome, in which flood disasters are recurrent. Due to the presence of numerous factors, a multicriteria analysis using the Analytical Hierarchical Process was conducted. First, a geospatial database was composed of layers of elevation, slope, drainage distance, soil drainage, soil hydrological group, precipitation, relief, and land use and cover. Flood risk maps for the study area were then generated, and patterns in the study areas were verified, with the greatest influence being exerted by intense precipitation on consecutive days, elevation at the edges of the channel with low altimetric variation and a flat combination, densely built areas close to the banks of the main river, and an expressive water mass in the main watercourse. The results demonstrate that these characteristics together can indicate the occurrence of flooding events.

GIS-based data-driven bivariate statistical models for landslide susceptibility prediction in Upper Tista Basin, India

Predicting landslides is becoming a crucial global challenge for sustainable development in mountainous areas. This research compares the landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs) prepared from five GIS-based data-driven bivariate statistical models, namely, (a) Frequency Ratio (FR), (b) Index of Entropy (IOE), (c) Statistical Index (SI), (d) Modified Information Value Model (MIV) and (e) Evidential Belief Function (EBF). These five models were tested in the high landslides-prone humid sub-tropical type Upper Tista basin of the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya by integrating the GIS and remote sensing. The landslide inventory map consisting of 477 landslide locations was prepared, and about 70% of all landslide data was utilized for training the model, and 30% was used to validate it after training. A total of fourteen landslide triggering parameters (elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, roughness, stream power index, TWI, distance to stream, distance to road, NDVI, LULC, rainfall, modified fournier index, and lithology) were taken into consideration for preparing the LSMs. The multicollinearity statistics revealed no collinearity problem among the fourteen causative factors used in this study. Based on the FR, MIV, IOE, SI, and EBF approaches, 12.00%, 21.46%, 28.53%, 31.42%, and 14.17% areas, respectively, identified in the high and very high landslide-prone zones. The research also revealed that the IOE model has the highest training accuracy of 95.80%, followed by SI (92.60%), MIV (92.20%), FR (91.50%), and EBF (89.90%) models. Consistent with the actual distribution of landslides, the very high, high, and medium hazardous zones stretch along the Tista River and major roads. The suggested landslide susceptibility models have enough accuracy for usage in landslide mitigation and long-term land use planning in the study area. Decision-makers and local planners may utilise the study's findings. The techniques for determining landslide susceptibility can also be employed in other Himalayan regions to manage and evaluate landslide hazards.

The interaction of topographic slope with various geo-environmental flood-causing factors on flood prediction and susceptibility mapping

This work integrates topographic slope with other geo-environmental flood-causing factors in order to improve the accuracy of flood prediction and susceptibility mapping using logistic regression (LR) model. The work was done for the eastern Jeddah watersheds in Saudi Arabia, where flash floods constitute a danger. A geospatial dataset with 140 historical flood records and twelve geo-environmental flood-causing factors was constructed. A number of significant statistical methods were also applied to provide reliable flood prediction and susceptibility mapping, including Jarque-Bera, Pearson's correlation, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and heterogeneity analyses. The results of the models are validated using the area under curve (AUC) and other seven statistical measures. These statistical measures include accuracy (ACC), sensitivity (SST), specificity (SPF), negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value (PPV), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and Cohn's Kappa (K). Results showed that both in training and testing datasets, the LR model with the slope as a moderating variable (LR-SMV) outperformed the classical LR model. For both models (LR and LR-SMV), the adjusted R2 is 88.9 and 89.2%, respectively. The majority of the flood-causing factors in the LR-SMV model had lower Sig. R values than in the LR model. As compared to the LR model, the LR-SMV attained the highest values of PPV (90%), NPV (93%), SST (92%), SPF (90%), ACC (89%), and K (81%), for both training and testing data. Moreover, employing slope as a moderating variable demonstrated its viability and reliability for defining precisely flood-susceptibility zones in order to reduce flood risks.

Assessing repair and maintenance efficiency for water suppliers: a novel hybrid USBM-FIS framework

A metropolitan area's water supply is imperative to the city's development. One of the main goals of the water supply utilities is to ensure the availability of water, as a lack of water would cause many social, political, or health problems. Therefore, water supply facilities must be in good condition, efficient preventive maintenance plans must be implemented, and the performance of the maintenance team monitored. In this paper, efficiency indices of Tehran water utility maintenance teams are investigated using different Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. The final scores were then used as inputs to a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) to assess the efficiency of these maintenance units. Two performance indicators based on DEA, "Availability efficiency" and "Repair time efficiency" are introduced for performance assessment. The Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) and the Ready To Operate (RTO) are two desirable outputs that are considered in addition to one undesirable output: the Mean Time To Repair (MTTR). In addition, we suggest a new index named MRRW by combining the DEA efficiency with the RRW index. We introduce a novel approach based on DEA combined with FIS methods and the new factors for evaluating water supply maintenance systems, while most previous studies on measuring the efficiency of maintenance teams consider only limited aspects of performance measurement. Based on the results of our study, it became clear that the MRRW measures efficiency better than the traditional RRW measures. We present future improvement strategies based on the output of the FIS.

A comparative assessment of flood susceptibility modelling of GIS-based TOPSIS, VIKOR, and EDAS techniques in the Sub-Himalayan foothills region of Eastern India

In the Sub-Himalayan foothills region of eastern India, floods are considered the most powerful annually occurring natural disaster, which cause severe losses to the socio-economic life of the inhabitants. Therefore, the present study integrated geographic information system (GIS) and three comprehensive and systematic multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques such as Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Vise Kriterijumska Optimizacijaik Ompromisno Resenje (VIKOR), and Evaluation Based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) in Koch Bihar district for comparative assessment of the flood-susceptible zones. The multi-dimensional 21 indicators were considered, and multicollinearity statistics were employed to erase the issues regarding highly correlated parameters (i.e., MFI and long-term annual rainfall). Results of MCDM models depicted that the riparian areas and riverine "chars" (islands) are the most susceptible sectors, accounting for around 40% of the total area. The microlevel assessment revealed that flooding was most susceptible in the Tufanganj-I, Tufanganj-II, and Mathabhanga-I blocks, while Haldibari, Sitalkuchi, and Sitai blocks were less susceptible. Spearman's rank (r_s) tests among the three MCDM models revealed that TOPSIS-EDAS persisted in a high correlation (r_s = 0.714) in contrast to the relationships between VIKOR-EDAS (r_s = 0.651) and TOPSIS-VIKOR (r_s = 0.639). The model's efficiency was statistically judged by applying the receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve (ROC-AUC), mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE) techniques to recognize the better-suited models for mapping the flood susceptibility. The performance of all techniques is found good enough (ROC-AUC =  > 0.700 and MAE, MSE and RMSE =  < 0.300). However, TOPSIS and VIKOR have manifested an excellent outcome and are highly recommended for identifying flood susceptibility in such active flood-prone areas. Thus, this kind of study addresses the role of GIS in the construction of the flood susceptibility of the region and the performance of the respective models in a very lucid manner.

Multi-Source Data Fusion and Hydrodynamics for Urban Waterlogging Risk Identification

The complex formation mechanism and numerous influencing factors of urban waterlogging disasters make the identification of their risk an essential matter. This paper proposes a framework for identifying urban waterlogging risk that combines multi-source data fusion with hydrodynamics (MDF-H). The framework consists of a source data layer, a model parameter layer, and a calculation layer. Using multi-source data fusion technology, we processed urban meteorological information, geographic information, and municipal engineering information in a unified computation-oriented manner to form a deep fusion of a globalized multi-data layer. In conjunction with the hydrological analysis results, the irregular sub-catchment regions are divided and utilized as calculating containers for the localized runoff yield and flow concentration. Four categories of source data, meteorological data, topographic data, urban underlying surface data, and municipal and traffic data, with a total of 12 factors, are considered the model input variables to define a real-time and comprehensive runoff coefficient. The computational layer consists of three calculating levels: total study area, sub-catchment, and grid. The surface runoff inter-regional connectivity is realized at all levels of the urban road network when combined with hydrodynamic theory. A two-level drainage capacity assessment model is proposed based on the drainage pipe volume density. The final result is the extent and depth of waterlogging in the study area, and a real-time waterlogging distribution map is formed. It demonstrates a mathematical study and an effective simulation of the horizontal transition of rainfall into the surface runoff in a large-scale urban area. The proposed method was validated by the sudden rainstorm event in Futian District, Shenzhen, on 11 April 2019. The average accuracy for identifying waterlogging depth was greater than 95%. The MDF-H framework has the advantages of precise prediction, rapid calculation speed, and wide applicability to large-scale regions.

Flood susceptibility mapping by best-worst and logistic regression methods in Mersin, Turkey

Flood disasters resulting from excessive water in stream beds inflict extensive damage. Floods are caused by the expansion of cities, the erosion of riverbeds, inadequate infrastructure, and increasing precipitation due to climate change. Floods cause great damage to agricultural areas and settlements. Regions that may be affected by floods should be identified, and precautions should be taken in these areas to prevent these damages. Flood susceptibility maps are produced for this reason. The purpose of this study was to construct a flood susceptibility map so that susceptible locations in Mersin may be identified. Firstly, 429 flood events were identified for the flood inventory map. Twelve conditioning factors, namely elevation, slope, distance to river, distance to drainage, drainage density, soil permeability, precipitation, land cover/land use, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), aspect, and curvature were used to create flood susceptibility maps, applying logistic regression and best-worst methods. The flood inventory data were used to prepare susceptibility maps and test their consistency. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used for consistency analysis. In logistic regression, 86% of floods were located within 20% of the study area that was categorized as high and very high susceptibility. According to the value of the area under the ROC curve (AUC), logistic regression had a 0.901 value. Land use, soil permeability, and elevation were the most important factors in the logistic regression method. In the best-worst method, 85% of floods were located within the 14% of the study area categorized as high and very high susceptibility. According to the AUC value, the best-worst method had a 0.898 value. Elevation, distance to river, and precipitation factors had the highest coefficient value in the best-worst method. Based on the AUC values, the flood susceptibility maps had a high prediction capacity.

Bridge-specific flood risk assessment of transport networks using GIS and remotely sensed data

A novel framework for the expedient assessment of flood risk to transportation networks focused on the response of the most critical and vulnerable infrastructure assets, the bridges, is developed, validated and applied. Building upon the recent French guidelines on scour risk (CEREMA, 2019), this paper delivers a thorough methodology, that incorporates three key, risk parameters: (i) the hydrodynamic loading, a hazard component of equal significance to scour, for the assessment of hazard; (ii) the correlation of select scour indicators with a new index relating to flow velocity, a primary measure of the adverse impacts of flow-structure interaction, enabling a more accurate and automated, assessment of bridge susceptibility to scour; (iii) the use of a new, comprehensive indicator, namely the Indicator of Flood Hazard Intensity (IFHI) which incorporates, in a simple yet efficient way, the key parameters controlling the severity of flood impact on bridges, namely flow velocity, floodwater height, flow obstruction, and sediment type. The framework is implemented for the analysis of flood risk in a case study area, considering an inventory of 117 bridges of diverse construction characteristics, which were affected by a major flood that impacted Greece in September 2020. The reliability of the method is validated against an extensive record of inspected and documented bridge damages. Regional scale analysis is facilitated by the adoption of the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making method for flood hazard indexing, considering geomorphological, meteorological, hydrological, and land use/cover data, based on the processing of remotely sensed imagery and openly available geospatial datasets in GIS.

Application of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle DEM in flood modeling and comparison with global DEMs: Case study of Atrak River Basin, Iran

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) play a significant role in hydraulic modeling and flood risk management. This study initially investigated the effect of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) DEM resolutions, ranging from 1 m to 30 m, on flood characteristics, including the inundation area, mean flow depth, and mean flow velocity. Then, the errors of flood characteristics for global DEMs, comprising ALOS (30 m), ASTER (30 m), SRTM (30 m), and TDX (12 m) were quantified using UAV DEM measurements. For these purposes, the HEC-RAS 2D model in steady-state conditions was used to simulate the flood with return periods of 5- to 200 years along 20 km reach of Atrak River located in northeastern Iran. Results indicated when UAV DEM resolution decreased from 1 m to 30 m, inundation area and mean flow depth increased 17.0% (R² = 0.94) and 10.2% (R² = 0.96) respectively, while mean flow velocity decreased 16.8% (R² = -0.94). Validation of the hydraulic modeling using the modified normalized difference water index demonstrated that the HEC-RAS 2D model in conjunction with UAV DEM simulates the flood with ⁓92% accuracy. Comparing the global DEMs with UAV DEM showed that the root mean square error (RMSE) values of the flow depth for ASTER, SRTM, ALOS, and TDX DEMs were 1.77, 1.12, 1.02, and 0.93 m, and the RMSE values of the flow velocity for the same DEMs were 0.81, 0.66, 0.55, and 0.47 m/s, respectively. Furthermore, TDX DEM with a 6.15% error in the inundation area was the nearest to UAV measurements. Overall, TDX DEM revealed a better performance in hydraulic modeling of the fluvial flood characteristics. Hence, it is recommended for environments where high-resolution topography data is scarce. The results of this study could potentially serve as a guideline for selecting global DEMs for hydraulic simulations.

Flood susceptibility evaluation through deep learning optimizer ensembles and GIS techniques

It is difficult to predict and model with an accurate model the floods, that are one of the most destructive risks across the earth's surface. The main objective of this research is to show the prediction power of three ensemble algorithms with respect to flood susceptibility estimation. These algorithms are: Iterative Classifier Optimizer - Alternating Decision Tree - Frequency Ratio (ICO-ADT-FR), Iterative Classifier Optimizer - Deep Learning Neural Network - Frequency Ratio (ICO-DLNN-FR) and Iterative Classifier Optimizer - Multilayer Perceptron - Frequency Ratio (ICO-MLP-FR). The first stage of the manuscript consisted of the collection and processing of the geodatabase needed in the present study. The geodatabase comprises a number of 14 flood predictors and 132 known flood locations. The Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) method was used in order to assess the prediction capacity of the 14 predictors in terms of flood susceptibility estimation. The training and validation of the three ensemble models constitute the next stage of the scientific workflow. Several statistical metrics and ROC curve method were involved in the evaluation of the model's performance and accuracy. According to ROC curves all the models achieved high performances since their AUC had values above 0.89. ICO-DLNN-FR proved to be the most accurate model (AUC = 0.959). The outcomes of the study can be used to guide future flood risk management and sustainable land-use planning in the designated area.

Hydrochemical characteristics and identification of pollution ions of the springs in the south of Yanbian City, China

Mathematical statistics, correlation analysis, Piper and Gibbs diagrams, and geographic information system- based multi-criteria decision analysis were used to study the hydrochemical characteristics and identification of hydrochemical ions affected by human activities of the springs in the south of Yanbian City, China. Four criteria were selected: land use/land cover, village density, distance to towns, and distance to main roads. The improved entropy method was used to assign weight to each criterion, followed by evaluating the human activities impact index map, which was used to extract the human activities impact index of springs. The correlation coefficient was calculated to identify the hydrochemical parameters affected by human activities. The results show that the main hydrochemical parameters are Ca²⁺ among cations and HCO₃^- among anions. Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, HCO₃^-, Cl^-, and total dissolved solids (TDS) have a strong correlation and similar spatial distribution, showing a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast. Most hydrochemical parameters show a similar spatial distribution trend. The hydrochemical types of springs are HCO₃-Ca, HCO₃-Ca•Mg, HCO₃-Na•Ca, and HCO₃-Ca. In the study area, Na⁺, K⁺, TFe, Mn²⁺, F^-, PO₄^3-, and oxygen consumption are negligibly affected by human activities, Mg²⁺, HCO₃^-, and Cl^- were slightly affected, and TDS and total hardness (TH) were strongly affected. With a correlation coefficient of 0.913, nitrate exhibited the highest correlation with the human activities impact index; it was significantly affected by human activities. We conclude that nitrate was the most affected by human activities, followed by TH, TDS, and other hydrochemical parameters.

Spatial-Temporal Sensitivity Analysis of Flood Control Capability in China Based on MADM-GIS Model

To facilitate better implementation of flood control and risk mitigation strategies, a model for evaluating the flood defense capability of China is proposed in this study. First, nine indicators such as slope and precipitation intensity are extracted from four aspects: objective inclusiveness, subjective prevention, etc. Secondly, the entropy weight method in the multi-attribute decision making (MADM) model and the improved three-dimensional technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (3D-TOPSIS) method were combined to construct a flood defense capacity index evaluation system. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Taylor plot method were innovatively used to test the model and indicators. The results show that nationwide, there is fine flood defense performance in Shandong, Jiangsu and room for improvement in Guangxi, Chongqing, Tibet and Qinghai. The good representativity of nine indicators selected by the model was verified by the Taylor plot. Simultaneously, the ROC calculated area under the curve (AUC) was 70%, which proved the good problem-solving ability of the MADM-GIS model. An accurate assessment of the sensitivity of flood control capacity in China was achieved, and it is suitable for situations where data is scarce or discontinuous. It provided scientific reference value for the planning and implementation of China’s flood defense and disaster reduction projects and emergency safety strategies.

Developing Robust Flood Susceptibility Model with Small Numbers of Parameters in Highly Fertile Regions of Northwest Bangladesh for Sustainable Flood and Agriculture Management

The present study intends to improve the robustness of a flood susceptibility (FS) model with a small number of parameters in data-scarce areas, such as northwest Bangladesh, by employing machine learning-based sensitivity analysis and an analytical hierarchy process (AHP). In this study, the nine most relevant flood elements (such as distance from the river, rainfall, and drainage density) were chosen as flood conditioning variables for modeling. The FS model was produced using AHP technique. We used an empirical and binormal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for validating the models. We performed Sensitivity analyses using a random forest (RF)-based mean Gini decline (MGD), mean decrease accuracy (MDA), and information gain ratio to find out the sensitive flood conditioning variables. After performing sensitivity analysis, the least sensitivity variables were eliminated. We re-ran the model with the rest of the parameters to enhance the model’s performance. Based on previous studies and the AHP weighting approach, the general soil type, rainfall, distance from river/canal (Dr), and land use/land cover (LULC) had higher factor weights of 0.22, 0.21, 0.19, and 0.15, respectively. The FS model without sensitivity and with sensitivity performed well in the present study. According to the RF-based sensitivity and information gain ratio, the most sensitive factors were rainfall, soil type, slope, and elevation, while curvature and drainage density were less sensitive parameters, which were excluded in re-running the FS model with just vital parameters. Using empirical and binormal ROC curves, the new FS model yields higher AUCs of 0.835 and 0.822, respectively. It is discovered that the predicted model’s robustness may be maintained or increased by removing less relevant factors. This study will aid decision-makers in developing flood management plans for the examined region.

Big Data in Criteria Selection and Identification in Managing Flood Disaster Events Based on Macro Domain PESTEL Analysis: Case Study of Malaysia Adaptation Index

The impact of Big Data (BD) creates challenges in selecting relevant and significant data to be used as criteria to facilitate flood management plans. Studies on macro domain criteria expand the criteria selection, which is important for assessment in allowing a comprehensive understanding of the current situation, readiness, preparation, resources, and others for decision assessment and disaster events planning. This study aims to facilitate the criteria identification and selection from a macro domain perspective in improving flood management planning. The objectives of this study are (a) to explore and identify potential and possible criteria to be incorporated in the current flood management plan in the macro domain perspective; (b) to understand the type of flood measures and decision goals implemented to facilitate flood management planning decisions; and (c) to examine the possible structured mechanism for criteria selection based on the decision analysis technique. Based on a systematic literature review and thematic analysis using the PESTEL framework, the findings have identified and clustered domains and their criteria to be considered and applied in future flood management plans. The critical review on flood measures and decision goals would potentially equip stakeholders and policy makers for better decision making based on a disaster management plan. The decision analysis technique as a structured mechanism would significantly improve criteria identification and selection for comprehensive and collective decisions. The findings from this study could further improve Malaysia Adaptation Index (MAIN) criteria identification and selection, which could be the complementary and supporting reference in managing flood disaster management. A proposed framework from this study can be used as guidance in dealing with and optimising the criteria based on challenges and the current application of Big Data and criteria in managing disaster events.

A new application of multi-criteria decision making in identifying critical dust sources and comparing three common receptor-based models

Dust storms are a common phenomenon in arid and semi-arid regions in West Asia, which has led to high levels of PM₁₀ in local and remote area. The Yazd city in Iran with a high PM₁₀ level located downstream of dust sources in the Middle East and Central Asia. In this study, based on meteorological and PM₁₀ monitoring data, backward trajectory modeling of air parcels related to dust events at Yazd station was performed using the HYSPLIT model in 2012-2019. The trajectory cluster analysis was used to identify the main dust transport pathways and wind systems. Three methods of Cross-referencing Backward Trajectory (CBT), Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) and Concentration Weighted Trajectory (CWT) were used to identify the most critical dust sources. Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods were also used to integrate the results. Nine dust sources affecting central Iran were determined, and six criteria from different aspects were considered. To prioritize the dust sources affecting central Iran from four new MCDM methods, including WASPAS, EDAS, ARAS and TOPSIS were used. The results showed that the Levar wind system (51%), the Shamal wind system (32%) and the Prefrontal wind system (18%) were the most important wind systems to cause dust events in central Iran. The MCDM approach to identify dust sources also showed that Dasht-e-Kavir in central Iran was the most critical dust source. The results also showed that in hot seasons (spring and summer), local and Central Asia dust sources and cold seasons (autumn and winter), Middle East dust sources have the greatest impact on dust events in central Iran. Also, a comparison of common receptor-based methods for identifying dust sources showed that CBT, CWT and PSCF were the most appropriate methods for identifying dust sources, respectively.

Assessment of Flood Risk Map under Climate Change RCP8.5 Scenarios in Taiwan

Climate change has exerted a significant global impact in recent years, and extreme weather-related hazards and incidents have become the new normal. For Taiwan in particular, the corresponding increase in disaster risk threatens not only the environment but also the lives, safety, and property of people. This highlights the need to develop a methodology for mapping disaster risk under climate change and delineating those regions that are potentially high-risk areas requiring adaptation to a changing climate in the future. This study provides a framework of flood risk map assessment under the RCP8.5 scenario by using different spatial scales to integrate the projection climate data of high resolution, inundation potential maps, and indicator-based approach at the end of the 21st century in Taiwan. The reference period was 1979–2003, and the future projection period was 2075–2099. High-resolution climate data developed by dynamic downscaling of the MRI-JMA-AGCM model was used to assess extreme rainfall events. The flood risk maps were constructed using two different spatial scales: the township level and the 5 km × 5 km grid. As to hazard-vulnerability(H-V) maps, users can overlay maps of their choice—such as those for land use distribution, district planning, agricultural crop distribution, or industrial distribution. Mapping flood risk under climate change can support better informed decision-making and policy-making processes in planning and preparing to intervene and control flood risks. The elderly population distribution is applied as an exposure indicator in order to guide advance preparation of evacuation plans for high-risk areas. This study found that higher risk areas are distributed mainly in northern and southern parts of Taiwan and the hazard indicators significantly increase in the northern, north-eastern, and southern regions under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the near-riparian and coastal townships of central and southern Taiwan have higher vulnerability levels. Approximately 14% of townships have a higher risk level of flooding disaster and another 3% of townships will become higher risk. For higher-risk townships, adaptation measures or strategies are suggested to prioritize improving flood preparation and protecting people and property. Such a flood risk map can be a communication tool to effectively inform decision- makers, citizens, and stakeholders about the variability of flood risk under climate change. Such maps enable decision-makers and national spatial planners to compare the relative flood risk of individual townships countrywide in order to determine and prioritize risk adaptation areas for planning spatial development policies.

Modeling of aquifer vulnerability index using deep learning neural networks coupling with optimization algorithms

A reliable assessment of the aquifer contamination vulnerability is essential for the conservation and management of groundwater resources. In this study, a recent technique in artificial intelligence modeling and computational optimization algorithms have been adopted to enhance the groundwater contamination vulnerability assessment. The original DRASTIC model (ODM) suffers from the inherited subjectivity and a lack of robustness to assess the final aquifer vulnerability to nitrate contamination. To overcome the drawbacks of the ODM, and to maximize the accuracy of the final contamination vulnerability index, two levels of modeling strategy were proposed. The first modeling strategy used particle swarm optimization (PSO) and differential evolution (DE) algorithms to determine the effective weights of DRASTIC parameters and to produce new indices of ODVI-PSO and ODVI-DE based on the ODM formula. For strategy-2, a deep learning neural networks (DLNN) model used two indices resulting from strategy-1 as the input data. The adjusted vulnerability index in strategy-2 using the DLNN model showed more superior performance compared to the other index models when it was validated for nitrate values. Study results affirmed the capability of the DLNN model in strategy-2 to extract the further information from ODVI-PSO and ODVI-DE indices. This research concluded that strategy-2 provided higher accuracy for modeling the aquifer contamination vulnerability in the study area and established the efficient applicability for the aquifer contamination vulnerability modeling.

Data-driven flood hazard zonation of Italy

We present Flood-SHE, a data-driven, statistically-based procedure for the delineation of areas expected to be inundated by river floods. We applied Flood-SHE in the 23 River Basin Authorities (RBAs) in Italy using information on the presence or absence of inundations obtained from existing flood zonings as the dependent variable, and six hydro-morphometric variables computed from a 10 m × 10 m DEM as covariates. We trained 96 models for each RBA using 32 combinations of the hydro-morphometric covariates for the three return periods, for a total of 2208 models, which we validated using 32 model sets for each of the covariate combinations and return periods, for a total of 3072 validation models. In all the RBAs, Flood-SHE delineated accurately potentially inundated areas that matched closely the corresponding flood zonings defined by physically-based hydro-dynamic flood routing and inundation models. Flood-SHE delineated larger to much larger areas as potentially subject of being inundated than the physically-based models, depending on the quality of the flood information. Analysis of the sites with flood human consequences revealed that the new data-driven inundation zones are good predictors of flood risk to the population of Italy. Our experiment confirmed that a small number of hydro-morphometric terrain variables is sufficient to delineate accurate inundation zonings in a variety of physiographical settings, opening to the possibility of using Flood-SHE in other areas. We expect the new data-driven inundation zonings to be useful where flood zonings built on hydrological modelling are not available, and to decide where improved flood hazard zoning is needed.

GIS-Based Spatial and Multi-Criteria Assessment of Riverine Flood Potential: A Case Study of the Nitra River Basin, Slovakia

The aim of this study was to identify the areas with different levels of riverine flood potential (RFP) in the Nitra river basin, Slovakia, using multi-criteria evaluation (MCE)-analytical hierarchical process (AHP), geographic information systems (GIS), and seven flood conditioning factors. The RFP in the Nitra river basin had not yet been assessed through MCE-AHP. Therefore, the methodology used can be useful, especially in terms of the preliminary flood risk assessment required by the EU Floods Directive. The results showed that classification techniques of natural breaks (Jenks), equal interval, quantile, and geometric interval classified 32.03%, 29.90%, 41.84%, and 53.52% of the basin, respectively, into high and very high RFP while 87.38%, 87.38%, 96.21%, and 98.73% of flood validation events, respectively, corresponded to high and very high RFP. A single-parameter sensitivity analysis of factor weights was performed in order to derive the effective weights, which were used to calculate the revised riverine flood potential (RRFP). In general, the differences between the RFP and RRFP can be interpreted as an underestimation of the share of high and very high RFP as well as the share of flood events in these classes within the RFP assessment. Therefore, the RRFP is recommended for the assessment of riverine flood potential in the Nitra river basin.

Integration of hard and soft supervised machine learning for flood susceptibility mapping

Flooding is a destructive natural phenomenon that causes many casualties and property losses in different parts of the world every year. Efficient flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) can reduce the risk of this hazard, and has become the main approach in flood risk management. In this study, we evaluated the prediction ability of artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms for hard and soft supervised machine learning classification in FSM by using three ANN algorithms (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), fuzzy adaptive resonance theory (FART), self-organizing map (SOM)) with different activation functions (sigmoidal (-S), linear (-L), commitment (-C), typicality (-T)). We used integration of these models for predicting the spatial expansion probability of flood events in the Ajichay river basin, northwest Iran. Inputs to the ANN were spatial data on 10 flood influencing factors (elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, lithology, land use, rainfall, and distance to the river). The FSMs obtained as model outputs were trained and tested using flood inventory datasets earned based on previous records of flood damage in the region for the Ajichay river basin. Sensitivity analysis using one factor-at-a-time (OFAT) and all factors-at-a-time (AFAT) demonstrated that all influencing factors had a positive impact on modeling to generate FSM, with altitude having the greatest impact and curvature the least. Model validation was carried out using total operating characteristic (TOC) with an area under the curve (AUC). The highest success rate was found for MLP-S (92.1%) and the lowest for FART-T (75.8%). The projection rate in the validation of FSMs produced by MLP-S, MLP-L, FART-C, FART-T, SOM-C, and SOM-T was found to be 90.1%, 89.6%, 71.7%, 70.8%, 83.8%, and 81.1%, respectively. While integration of hard and soft supervised machine learning classification with activation functions of MLP-S and MLP-L showed a strong flood prediction capability for proper planning and management of flood hazards, MLP-S is a promising method for predicting the spatial expansion probability of flood events.

Deep Neural Network Utilizing Remote Sensing Datasets for Flood Hazard Susceptibility Mapping in Brisbane, Australia

Large damages and losses resulting from floods are widely reported across the globe. Thus, the identification of the flood-prone zones on a flood susceptibility map is very essential. To do so, 13 conditioning factors influencing the flood occurrence in Brisbane river catchment in Australia (i.e., topographic, water-related, geological, and land use factors) were acquired for further processing and modeling. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANN), deep learning neural networks (DLNN), and optimized DLNN using particle swarm optimization (PSO) were exploited to predict and estimate the susceptible areas to the future floods. The significance of the conditioning factors analysis for the region highlighted that altitude, distance from river, sediment transport index (STI), and slope played the most important roles, whereas stream power index (SPI) did not contribute to the hazardous situation. The performance of the models was evaluated against the statistical tests such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under curve (AUC), and true skill statistic (TSS). DLNN and PSO-DLNN models obtained the highest values of sensitivity (0.99) for the training stage to compare with ANN. Moreover, the validations of specificity and TSS for PSO-DLNN recorded the highest values of 0.98 and 0.90, respectively, compared with those obtained by ANN and DLNN. The best accuracies by AUC were evaluated in PSO-DLNN (0.99 in training and 0.98 in testing datasets), followed by DLNN and ANN. Therefore, the optimized PSO-DLNN proved its robustness to compare with other methods.

Flood susceptibility mapping by integrating frequency ratio and index of entropy with multilayer perceptron and classification and regression tree

Episodes of frequent flooding continue to increase, often causing serious damage and tools to identify areas affected by such disasters have become indispensable in today's society. Using the latest techniques can make very accurate flood predictions. In this study, we introduce four effective methods to evaluate the flood susceptibility of Poyang County, in China, by integrating two independent models of frequency ratio and index of entropy with multilayer perceptron and classification and regression tree models. The flood locations of the study area were identified through the flood inventory process, and 12 flood conditioning factors were used in the training and validation processes. According to the results of the linear support vector machine, elevation, slope angle, and soil have the highest predictive ability. The experimental results of the four hybrid models demonstrate that between 20% and 50% of the study area has high and very high flood susceptibility. The multilayer perceptron-probability density hybrid model is the most effective among the six comparative methods.

An Overview of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Application in Managing Water-Related Disaster Events: Analyzing 20 Years of Literature for Flood and Drought Events

This paper provides an overview of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) applications in managing water-related disasters (WRD). Although MCDA has been widely used in managing natural disasters, it appears that no literature review has been conducted on the applications of MCDA in the disaster management phases of mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Therefore, this paper fills this gap by providing a bibliometric analysis of MCDA applications in managing flood and drought events. Out of 818 articles retrieved from scientific databases, 149 articles were shortlisted and analyzed using a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) approach. The results show a significant growth in MCDA applications in the last five years, especially in managing flood events. Most articles focused on the mitigation phase of DMP, while other phases of preparedness, response, and recovery remained understudied. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most common MCDA technique used, followed by mixed-method techniques and TOPSIS. The article concludes the discussion by identifying a number of opportunities for future research in the use of MCDA for managing water-related disasters.

Application of Support Vector Regression and Metaheuristic Optimization Algorithms for Groundwater Potential Mapping in Gangneung-si, South Korea

The availability of groundwater is of concern. The demand for groundwater in Korea increased by more than 100% during the period 1994–2014. This problem will increase with population growth. Thus, a reliable groundwater analysis model for regional scale studies is needed. This study used the geographical information system (GIS) data and machine learning to map groundwater potential in Gangneung-si, South Korea. A spatial correlation performed using the frequency ratio was applied to determine the relationships between groundwater productivity (transmissivity data from 285 wells) and various factors. This study used four topography factors, four hydrological factors, and three geological factors, along with the normalized difference wetness index and land use and soil type. Support vector regression (SVR) and metaheuristic optimization algorithms—namely, grey wolf optimization (GWO), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), were used in the construction of the groundwater potential map. Model validation based on the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was used to determine model accuracy. The AUC values of groundwater potential maps made using the SVR, SVR_GWO, and SVR_PSO algorithms were 0.803, 0.878, and 0.814, respectively. Thus, the application of optimization algorithms increased model accuracy compared to the standard SVR algorithm. The findings of this study improve our understanding of groundwater potential in a given area and could be useful for policymakers aiming to manage water resources in the future.

Integrated Framework for Detecting the Areas Prone to Flooding Generated by Flash-Floods in Small River Catchments

In the present study, the susceptibility to flash-floods and flooding was studied across the Izvorul Dorului River basin in Romania. In the first phase, three ensemble models were used to determine the susceptibility to flash-floods. These models were generated by a combination of three statistical bivariate methods, namely frequency ratio (FR), weights of evidence (WOE), and statistical index (SI), with fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The result obtained from the application of the FAHP-WOE model had the best performance highlighted by an Area Under Curve—Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUC-ROC) value of 0.837 for the training sample and another of 0.79 for the validation sample. Furthermore, the results offered by FAHP-WOE were weighted on the river network level using the flow accumulation method, through which the valleys with a medium, high, and very high torrential susceptibility were identified. Based on these valleys’ locations, the susceptibility to floods was estimated. Thus, in the first stage, a buffer zone of 200 m was delimited around the identified valleys along which the floods could occur. Once the buffer zone was established, ten flood conditioning factors were used to determine the flood susceptibility through the analytical hierarchy process model. Approximately 25% of the total delimited area had a high and very high flood susceptibility.

Agricultural drought risk assessment of Northern New South Wales, Australia using geospatial techniques

Droughts are recurring events in Australia and cause a severe effect on agricultural and water resources. However, the studies about agricultural drought risk mapping are very limited in Australia. Therefore, a comprehensive agricultural drought risk assessment approach that incorporates all the risk components with their influencing criteria is essential to generate detailed drought risk information for operational drought management. A comprehensive agricultural drought risk assessment approach was prepared in this work incorporating all components of risk (hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and mitigation capacity) with their relevant criteria using geospatial techniques. The prepared approach is then applied to identify the spatial pattern of agricultural drought risk for Northern New South Wales region of Australia. A total of 16 relevant criteria under each risk component were considered, and fuzzy logic aided geospatial techniques were used to prepare vulnerability, exposure, hazard, and mitigation capacity indices. These indices were then incorporated to quantify agricultural drought risk comprehensively in the study area. The outputs depicted that about 19.2% and 41.7% areas are under very-high and moderate to high risk to agricultural droughts, respectively. The efficiency of the results is successfully evaluated using a drought inventory map. The generated spatial drought risk information produced by this study can assist relevant authorities in formulating proactive agricultural drought mitigation strategies.

A new hybrid equilibrium optimized SysFor based geospatial data mining for tropical storm-induced flash flood susceptible mapping

Flash flood is one of the most dangerous hydrologic and natural phenomena and is considered as the top ranking of such events among various natural disasters due to their fast onset characteristics and the proportion of individual fatalities. Mapping the probability of flash flood events remains challenges because of its complexity and rapid onset of precipitation. Thus, this study aims to propose a state-of-the-art data mining approach based on a hybrid equilibrium optimized SysFor, namely, the HE-SysFor model, for spatial prediction of flash floods. A tropical storm region located in the Northwest areas of Vietnam is selected as a case study. For this purpose, 1866 flash-flooded locations and ten indicators were used. The results show that the proposed HE-SysFor model yielded the highest predictive performance (total accuracy = 93.8%, Kappa index = 0.875, F1-score = 0.939, and AUC = 0.975) and produced the better performance than those of the C4.5 decision tree (C4.5), the radial basis function-based support vector machine (SVM-RBF), the logistic regression (LReg), and deep learning neural network (DeepLNN) models in both the training and the testing phases. Among the ten indicators, elevation, slope, and land cover are the most important. It is concluded that the proposed model provides an alternative tool and may help for effectively monitoring flash floods in tropical areas and robust policies for decision making in mitigating the flash flood impacts.

Regional Land Eco-Security Evaluation for the Mining City of Daye in China Using the GIS-Based Grey TOPSIS Method

Regional ecological security assessment is a significant methodology for environmental protection, land utilisation, and human development. This study aims to reveal the regional constraints of ecological resources to overcome the difficulties and complexities in quantification of current models used in land ecosystems. For this purpose, the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) was linked to a grey relational analysis and integrated with a geographic information system. The obtained method was used to construct a land eco-security evaluation on a regional scale for application in a traditional mining city, Daye, in central China. Parameter analysis was introduced to the method to produce a more realistic spatial distribution of eco-security. Subsequently, based on the pressure–state–response framework, the eco-security index was calculated, and the carrying capacity of land resources and population for each sub-region were analysed. The results showed that: (i) very insecure and insecure classes comprised 5.65% and 18.2% of the total area, respectively, highlighting the vulnerable eco-environmental situation; (ii) moderate secure classes areas comprised a large amount of arable land, spanning an area of 494.5 km2; (iii) secure areas were distributed in the northwest, containing mostly water and wetland areas and accounting for 426.3 km2; and (iv) very secure areas were located on the southeastern region, involving traditional woodland with a better vegetation cover and an overall higher eco-environmental quality. In addition, for each sub-region, the extremely low and low ecological security areas were mainly arable and urban lands, which amounted to 305 and 190 km2, respectively. Under the current ecological constraints, sub-region 1 cannot continue supporting the population size in Daye City. The present results demonstrate the accuracy of our methodology, and our method may be used by local managers to make effective decisions for regional environment protection and sustainable use of land resources.

Flood Susceptibility Assessment Using Novel Ensemble of Hyperpipes and Support Vector Regression Algorithms

Recurrent floods are one of the major global threats among people, particularly in developing countries like India, as this nation has a tropical monsoon type of climate. Therefore, flood susceptibility (FS) mapping is indeed necessary to overcome this type of natural hazard phenomena. With this in mind, we evaluated the prediction performance of FS mapping in the Koiya River basin, Eastern India. The present research work was done through preparation of a sophisticated flood inventory map; eight flood conditioning variables were selected based on the topography and hydro-climatological condition, and by applying the novel ensemble approach of hyperpipes (HP) and support vector regression (SVR) machine learning (ML) algorithms. The ensemble approach of HP-SVR was also compared with the stand-alone ML algorithms of HP and SVR. In relative importance of variables, distance to river was the most dominant factor for flood occurrences followed by rainfall, land use land cover (LULC), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The validation and accuracy assessment of FS maps was done through five popular statistical methods. The result of accuracy evaluation showed that the ensemble approach is the most optimal model (AUC = 0.915, sensitivity = 0.932, specificity = 0.902, accuracy = 0.928 and Kappa = 0.835) in FS assessment, followed by HP (AUC = 0.885) and SVR (AUC = 0.871).

Optimization of state-of-the-art fuzzy-metaheuristic ANFIS-based machine learning models for flood susceptibility prediction mapping in the Middle Ganga Plain, India

This study is an attempt to quantitatively test and compare novel advanced-machine learning algorithms in terms of their performance in achieving the goal of predicting flood susceptible areas in a low altitudinal range, sub-tropical floodplain environmental setting, like that prevailing in the Middle Ganga Plain (MGP), India. This part of the Ganga floodplain region, which under the influence of undergoing active tectonic regime related subsidence, is the hotbed of annual flood disaster. This makes the region one of the best natural laboratories to test the flood susceptibility models for establishing a universalization of such models in low relief highly flood prone areas. Based on highly sophisticated flood inventory archived for this region, and 12 flood conditioning factors viz. annual rainfall, soil type, stream density, distance from stream, distance from road, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), altitude, slope aspect, slope, curvature, land use/land cover, and geomorphology, an advanced novel hybrid model Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and three metaheuristic models-based ensembles with ANFIS namely ANFIS-GA (Genetic Algorithm), ANFIS-DE (Differential Evolution), and ANFIS-PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization), have been applied for zonation of the flood susceptible areas. The flood inventory dataset, prepared by collected flood samples, were apportioned into 70:30 classes to prepare training and validation datasets. One independent validation method, the Area-Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) Curve, and other 11 cut-off-dependent model evaluation metrices have helped to conclude that the ANIFS-GA has outperformed other three models with highest success rate AUC = 0.922 and prediction rate AUC = 0.924. The accuracy was also found to be highest for ANFIS-GA during training (0.886) & validation (0.883). Better performance of ANIFS-GA than the individual models as well as some ensemble models suggests and warrants further study in this topoclimatic environment using other classes of susceptibility models. This will further help establishing a benchmark model with capability of highest accuracy and sensitivity performance in the similar topographic and climatic setting taking assumption of the quality of input parameters as constant.

Nature-Based Solutions for Water Management in Peri-Urban Areas: Barriers and Lessons Learned from Implementation Experiences

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are defined by the European Commission as “actions that are inspired by, supported by, or copied from nature…” and that solve societal challenges and multiple benefits. As a result, NBS are often promoted as alternative responses that solve complex societal challenges such as watershed management, while delivering a systemic approach of multiple benefits for well-being, human health, and sustainable use of resources. Despite rising interest in NBS, further identification of experiences implementing NBS could advance our understanding of the operationalization of this comprehensive concept. For this purpose, we analyzed 35 peer-reviewed articles on implementation experiences of NBS for water management in peri-urban areas, on aspects related to (i) NBS problem–solution: water challenges, ecosystem services, scales, and types; (ii) NBS governance and management. From the insights of the analysis, this paper asks what lessons are learned, and which barriers are identified, from implementing NBS for water management in peri-urban areas? As a result, this study presents a detailed analysis of each aspect. We conclude by highlighting accountancy, monitoring, and communication as potential success factors for integration and development while diminishing the overall barrier of complexity, which leads to technical, institutional, economic, and social uncertainty.

Establishment of an integrated decision-making method for planning the ecological restoration of terrestrial ecosystems

Ecological restoration of terrestrial ecosystems facilitates environmental protection and enhances sustainable development of land resources. With increasingly severe land degradation, new and effective methods must be developed for the restoration of ecological functions. In this study, we developed a regional risk assessment approach to support the planning of ecological restoration of a terrestrial ecosystem located in the Daye area in central China. The study area was divided into six sub-regions where ecological risks were characterized by building a non-linear model to represent ecological interactions among the risk components there. Socio-economic conditions in the areas were evaluated and presented using an analytic hierarchy process. Assessment of different stakeholders there was conducted based on multiple-criteria decision analysis. Then, integrated assessment was performed using the technique of order preference for an ideal solution. We divided the degraded land in Daye into areas with different priorities for restoration or rectification and presented corresponding sequential time intervals for the action. The results are as follows: (i) the top priority rectification areas (totaling 358 km²) are mainly distributed in northeast and northwest regions; (ii) the high priority rectification areas are concentrated in the central region spanning 226 km²; (iii) the medium priority rectification areas comprised a large amount of arable and forest land spanning 605 km²; and (iv) the low priority rectification areas cover the rest part of the Daye area spanning 195 km². The assessment tool was proven to be useful in planning regional ecological restoration in terrestrial ecosystems.

Modeling Spatial Flood using Novel Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Approaches in Northern Iran

The uncertainty of flash flood makes them highly difficult to predict through conventional models. The physical hydrologic models of flash flood prediction of any large area is very difficult to compute as it requires lot of data and time. Therefore remote sensing data based models (from statistical to machine learning) have become highly popular due to open data access and lesser prediction times. There is a continuous effort to improve the prediction accuracy of these models through introducing new methods. This study is focused on flash flood modeling through novel hybrid machine learning models, which can improve the prediction accuracy. The hybrid machine learning ensemble approaches that combine the three meta-classifiers (Real AdaBoost, Random Subspace, and MultiBoosting) with J48 (a tree-based algorithm that can be used to evaluate the behavior of the attribute vector for any defined number of instances) were used in the Gorganroud River Basin of Iran to assess flood susceptibility (FS). A total of 426 flood positions as dependent variables and a total of 14 flood conditioning factors (FCFs) as independent variables were used to model the FS. Several threshold-dependent and independent statistical tests were applied to verify the performance and predictive capability of these machine learning models, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the success rate curve (SRC) and prediction rate curve (PRC), efficiency (E), root-mean square-error (RMSE), and true skill statistics (TSS). The valuation of the FCFs was done using AdaBoost, frequency ratio (FR), and Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models. In the flooding of the study area, altitude, land use/land cover (LU/LC), distance to stream, normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), and rainfall played important roles. The Random Subspace J48 (RSJ48) ensemble method with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.931 (SRC), 0.951 (PRC), E of 0.89, sensitivity of 0.87, and TSS of 0.78, has become the most effective ensemble in predicting the FS. The FR technique also showed good performance and reliability for all models. Map removal sensitivity analysis (MRSA) revealed that the FS maps have the highest sensitivity to elevation. Based on the findings of the validation methods, the FS maps prepared using the machine learning ensemble techniques have high robustness and can be used to advise flood management initiatives in flood-prone areas.

Sub-basin prioritization for assessment of soil erosion susceptibility in Kangsabati, a plateau basin: A comparison between MCDM and SWAT models

Kangsabati basin located in tropical plateau region faces multiple problems of soil erosion susceptibility (SES), soil fertility deterioration, and sedimentation in reservoirs. Hence, identification of SES zones in thirty-eight sub-basins (SB) for basin prioritization is necessary. The present research addressed the issue by using four multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) models: VlseKriterijumska optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR), technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), simple additive weighing (SAW), compound factor (CF). To determine the best fitted method from MCDM for erosion susceptibility (ES), a comparison has been made with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), where fifteen morphometric parameters were considered for MCDM, and meteorological data, soil, slope and land use land cover (LULC) were considered for SWAT model. Two validation indices of percentage change and intensity change were used for evaluation and comparison of MCDM results. With SWAT model performance, SWAT calibration and uncertainty analysis programs (CUP) was used for sensitive analysis of SWAT parameters on flow discharge and sediment load simulation. The results showed that 23, 16, 18 SB have high ES; therefore they were given 1 to 3 ranks, whereas 31, 37, 21SB have low ES, hence given 38 to 36 rank as predicted by MCDM methods and SWAT. MCDM validation results depict that VIKOR and CF methods are more acceptable than TOPSIS and SAW. Calibration (flow discharge R2 0.86, NSE 0.75; sediment load R2 0.87, NSE 0.69) and validation (flow discharge R2 0.79, NSE 0.55; sediment load R2 0.79, NSE 0.76) of SWAT model indicated that simulated results are well fitted with observed data. Therefore, VIKOR reflects the significant role of morphometric parameters on ES, whereas SWAT reflects the significant role of LULC, slope, and soil on ES. However, it could be concluded that VIKOR is more effective MCDM method in comparison to SWAT prediction.

Multi-Hazard Exposure Mapping Using Machine Learning for the State of Salzburg, Austria

We live in a sphere that has unpredictable and multifaceted landscapes that make the risk arising from several incidences that are omnipresent. Floods and landslides are widespread and recurring hazards occurring at an alarming rate in recent years. The importance of this study is to produce multi-hazard exposure maps for flooding and landslides for the federal State of Salzburg, Austria, using the selected machine learning (ML) approach of support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). Multi-hazard exposure maps were established on thirteen influencing factors for flood and landslides such as elevation, slope, aspect, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), geology, lithology, rainfall, land cover, distance to roads, distance to faults, and distance to drainage. We classified the inventory data for flood and landslide into training and validation with the widely used splitting ratio, where 70% of the locations are used for training, and 30% are used for validation. The accuracy assessment of the exposure maps was derived through ROC (receiver operating curve) and R-Index (relative density). RF yielded better results for both flood and landslide exposure with 0.87 for flood and 0.90 for landslides compared to 0.87 for flood and 0.89 for landslides using SVM. However, the multi-hazard exposure map for the State of Salzburg derived through RF and SVM provides the planners and managers to plan better for risk regions affected by both floods and landslides.

The potential of Tidal River Management for flood alleviation in South Western Bangladesh

Reduced sediment deposition, land subsidence, channel siltation, and salinity intrusion has been an unintended consequence of the construction of polders in the south western delta of Bangladesh in the 1960s. Tidal River Management (TRM) is a process that is intended to temporarily reverse these processes and restore sediment deposition and land elevation at the low-lying sites, known as 'beels', where TRM is carried out. However, there is limited evidence to prioritise sites for TRM on the basis of its potential effectiveness at alleviating flooding. In this study, the south western delta of Bangladesh was classified according to different flood susceptible zones. In south western Bangladesh, the major portion of agricultural and aquaculture land is located within flood susceptible zones (65% and 81%, respectively). 44.5% of the total population in embanked regions live in areas classified as being flood susceptible. This study identified 106 'beels' suitable for TRM. Modelling of potential sediment deposition predicted that the consequent increase in land elevation could be up to 1.4 m in five years, which would alleviate land subsidence and modify several geomorphological factors such as aspect, slope, curvature, and Stream Power Index (SPI). Implementation of TRM at these sites could potentially reduce the probability of annual flooding from 0.86 (on average) to 0.57 (on average). Therefore, TRM could lower the flood susceptible area by 35% in suitable 'beels'. Whilst during the implementation of TRM agriculture has to cease for a few years, a systematic programme of TRM could result in a long-term increase in agricultural production by reducing flood susceptibility of agricultural lands in delta regions.

Predicting the deforestation probability using the binary logistic regression, random forest, ensemble rotational forest, REPTree: A case study at the Gumani River Basin, India

Rapid population growth and its corresponding effects like the expansion of human settlement, increasing agricultural land, and industry lead to the loss of forest area in most parts of the world especially in such highly populated nations like India. Forest canopy density (FCD) is a useful measure to assess the forest cover change in its own as numerous works of forest change have been done using only FCD with the help of remote sensing and GIS. The coupling of binary logistic regression (BLR), random forest (RF), ensemble of rotational forest and reduced error pruning trees (RTF-REPTree) with FCD makes it more convenient to find out the deforestation probability. Advanced vegetation index (AVI), bare soil index (BSI), shadow index (SI), and scaled vegetation density (VD) derived from Landsat imageries are the main input parameters to identify the FCD. After preparing the FCDs of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2017 the deforestation map of the study area was prepared and considered as dependent parameter for deforestation probability modelling. On the other hand, twelve deforestation determining factors were used to delineate the deforestation probability with the help of BLR, RF and RTF-REPTree models. These deforestation probability models were validated through area under curve (AUC), receiver operating characteristics (ROC), efficiency, true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa co-efficient. The validation result shows that all the models like BLR (AUC = 0.874), RF (AUC = 0.886) and RTF-REPTree (AUC = 0.919) have good capability of assessing the deforestation probability but among them, RTF-REPTree has the highest accuracy level. The result also shows that low canopy density area i.e. not under the dense forest cover has increased by 9.26% from 1990 to 2017. Besides, nearly 30% of the forested land is under high to very high deforestation probable zone, which needs to be protected with immediate measures.