Predicting the current and future distribution of three Coptis herbs in China under climate change conditions, using the MaxEnt model and chemical analysis

Can global warming be beneficial for Arctic-alpine orchid species? Outcomes from ecological niche modeling for Chamorchis alpina (L.) Rich. (Orchidaceae)

The disjunct Arctic-alpine plants that persist on isolated mountain sites at the limits of their geographical range are particularly sensitive indicators of climate change effects. Here, we investigated a remarkably fragile plant, the smallest orchid in Europe, Chamorchis alpina. The ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach was employed not only to verify the shift in the range of the studied orchid but also to evaluate the future overlap between this plant population and its pollen vectors, Dasytes alpigradus, Formica lemani and Leptothorax acervorum. Our analyses showed that the bioclimatic preferences of the northern (Scandinavian) populations differed from those of the southern populations located in the Alps and Carpathians. Surprisingly, both C. alpina groups will expand their potential ranges under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario, and additional suitable niches will become available for the northern group under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. The Scandinavian populations will face significant habitat loss (36 %) in the SSP5-8.5 projection. The southern group will lose suitable niches under both the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (33 % and 58 %, respectively). For all pollinators of C. alpina, global warming will be favorable, and all three species will expand their potential ranges under all analyzed climate change scenarios. Our research suggests that a "middle of the road" scenario of climate change (SSP2-4.5), which assumes that socioeconomic factors follow historical trends, will not be harmful to the studied orchid or possibly other elements of Arctic-alpine flora, but all other scenarios that predict increases in CO2 emissions will result in a decreases in the coverage of suitable C. alpina niches, especially in the alpine region. At the same time, an overall expansion of alpine dwarf orchid pollen vectors is predicted, so even within a reduced geographical range, the orchid population will be able to reproduce sexually.

Potential planting regions of Pterocarpus santalinus (Fabaceae) under current and future climate in China based on MaxEnt modeling

This study modeled the habitat distribution of Pterocarpus santalinus, a valuable rosewood species, across China under current and future climate scenarios (SSPs126, SSPs245, and SSPs585) using MaxEnt. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat, spanning approximately 409,600 km2, is primarily located in the central and southern parts of Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Yunnan, as well as in the Hainan provinces, along with the coastal regions of Taiwan, and the Sichuan-Chongqing border. The habitat's distribution is significantly influenced by climatic factors such as temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), annual mean temperature (bio1), and annual precipitation (bio12), while terrain and soil factors play a lesser role. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat for P. santalinus is projected to expand, with a northeastward shift in its distribution center. This research not only sheds light on the geoecological characteristics and geographical distribution of P. santalinus in China but also offers a scientific basis for planning its cultivation areas and enhancing cultivation efficiency under changing climate conditions.

Potential distribution patterns and species richness of avifauna in rapidly urbanizing East China

In recent years, increased species extinction and habitat loss have significantly reduced biodiversity, posing a serious threat to both nature and human survival. Environmental factors strongly influence bird distribution and diversity. The potential distribution patterns and species richness offer a conservation modeling framework for policymakers to assess the effectiveness of natural protected areas (PAs) and optimize their existing ones. Very few such studies have been published that cover a large and complete taxonomic group with fine resolution at regional scale. Here, using birds as a study group, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to analyze the pattern of bird species richness in Jiangsu Province. Using an unparalleled amount of occurrence data, we created species distribution models (SDMs) for 312 bird species to explore emerging diversity patterns at a resolution of 1 km2. The gradient of species richness is steep, decreasing sharply away from water bodies, particularly in the northern part of Jiangsu Province. The migratory status and feeding habits of birds also significantly influence the spatial distribution of avian species richness. This study reveals that the regions with high potential bird species richness are primarily distributed in three areas: the eastern coastal region, the surrounding area of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the surrounding area of Taihu Lake. Compared with species richness hotspots and existing PAs, we found that the majority of hotspots are well-protected. However, only a small portion of the regions, such as coastal areas of Sheyang County in Yancheng City, as well as some regions along the Yangtze River in Nanjing and Zhenjiang, currently have relatively weak protection. Using stacked SDMs, our study reveals effective insights into diversity patterns, directly informing conservation policies and contributing to macroecological research advancements.

Predicting the potential distribution of Dendrolimus punctatus and its host Pinus massoniana in China under climate change conditions

Introduction

Dendrolimus punctatus, a major pest endemic to the native Pinus massoniana forests in China, displays major outbreak characteristics and causes severe destructiveness. In the context of global climate change, this study aims to investigate the effects of climatic variations on the distribution of D. punctatus and its host, P. massoniana.

Methods

We predict their potential suitable distribution areas in the future, thereby offering a theoretical basis for monitoring and controlling D. punctatus, as well as conserving P. massoniana forest resources. By utilizing existing distribution data on D. punctatus and P. massoniana, coupled with relevant climatic variables, this study employs an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model for predictions. With feature combinations set as linear and product (LP) and the regularization multiplier at 0.1, the model strikes an optimal balance between complexity and accuracy.

Results

The results indicate that the primary climatic factors influencing the distribution of D. punctatus and P. massoniana include the minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. Under the influence of climate change, the distribution areas of P. massoniana and its pests exhibit a high degree of similarity, primarily concentrated in the region south of the Qinling-Huaihe line in China. In various climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for these two species may expand to varying degrees, exhibiting a tendency to shift toward higher latitude regions. Particularly under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), D. punctatus is projected to expand northwards at the fastest rate.

Discussion

By 2050, its migration direction is expected to closely align with that of P. massoniana, indicating that the pine forests will continue to be affected by the pest. These findings provide crucial empirical references for region-specific prevention of D. punctatus infestations and for the rational utilization and management of P. massoniana resources.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability and Natural Product Accumulation of the Medicinal Plant Sophora alopecuroides L. Based on the MaxEnt Model

Sophora alopecuroides L., a perennial herb in the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China, has the ecological functions of windbreaking and sand fixation and high medicinal value. In recent years, global warming and human activities have led to changes in suitable habitats for S. alopecuroides, which may affect the accumulation of natural products. In this study, MaxEnt 3.4 and ArcGIS 10.4 software were used to predict the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for S. alopecuroides in China under climate change. Furthermore, the geographical distribution of S. alopecuroides as affected by human activities, the differences in the content of natural products of S. alopecuroides between different suitable habitats, and the correlation between natural products and environmental factors were analyzed. The results showed that suitable habitats for S. alopecuroides were projected to expand in the future, and the major environmental factors were temperature (Bio1), rainfall (Bio18), and soil pH (pH). When Bio1, Bio18, and pH were 8.4283 °C, 7.1968 mm, and 9.9331, respectively, the distribution probability (P) of S. alopecuroides was the highest. After adding a human activity factor, the accuracy of the model prediction results was improved, and the area of suitable habitats was greatly reduced, showing a fragmented pattern. Meanwhile, habitat suitability had a specific effect on the content of natural products in S. alopecuroides. Specifically, the content of natural products in S. alopecuroides in wild habitats was higher than that in artificial cultivation, and highly suitable habitats showed higher contents than those in non-highly suitable habitats. The contents of total alkaloids and total flavonoids were positively correlated with human activities and negatively correlated with land use types. Among them, total alkaloids were negatively correlated with aspect, and total flavonoids were positively correlated with aspect. In addition, it is suggested that Xinjiang should be the priority planting area for S. alopecuroides in China, and priority should be given to protection measures in the Alashan area. Overall, this study provides an important foundation for the determination of priority planting areas and resource protection for S. alopecuroides.

Population genetic variation and geographic distribution of suitable areas of Coptis species in China

Introduction

The rhizomes of Coptis plants have been used in traditional Chinese medicine over 2000 years. Due to increasing market demand, the overexploitation of wild populations, habitat degradation and indiscriminate artificial cultivation of Coptis species have severely damaged the native germplasms of species in China.

Methods

Genome-wide simple-sequence repeat (SSR) markers were developed using the genomic data of C. chinensis. Population genetic diversity and structure of 345 Coptis accessions collected from 32 different populations were performed based on these SSRs. The distribution of suitable areas for three taxa in China was predicted and the effects of environmental variables on genetic diversity in relation to different population distributions were further analyzed.

Results

22 primer pairs were selected as clear, stable, and polymorphic SSR markers. These had an average of 16.41 alleles and an average polymorphism information content (PIC) value of 0.664. In the neighbor-joining (N-J) clustering analysis, the 345 individuals clustered into three groups, with C. chinensis, C. chinensis var. brevisepala and C. teeta being clearly separated. All C. chinensis accessions were further divided into four subgroups in the population structure analysis. The predicted distributions of suitable areas and the environmental variables shaping these distributions varied considerably among the three species.

Discussion

Overall, the amount of solar radiation, precipitation and altitude were the most important environmental variables influencing the distribution and genetic variation of three species. The findings will provide key information to guide the conservation of genetic resources and construction of a core reserve for species.

Spatial distribution dynamics for Epimedium brevicornum Maxim. from 1970 to 2020

At different time scales, a species will experience diverse distribution changes. For Epimedium brevicornum Maxim, the phenomenon is obvious, but the understanding of the spatial dynamics of E. brevicornum under distinct time scales is poor. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution for E. brevicornum for five time scales, 1970-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2019, with different occurrence data, and the Kuenm package was used to optimize the parameter combination. Then, SDM tools and a Venn diagram were utilized to simulate the changes in highly suitable areas and spatial dynamics, respectively. Comprehensive results show that temperature seasonality (BIO4, 37.54%) has the greatest effect on the distribution of E. brevicornum, followed by minimum temperature (TMIN, 21.42%). The areas of distribution for E. brevicornum are 35.06 × 105 km2, 25.7 × 105 km2, 67.64 × 105 km2, 27.29 × 105 km2, and 9.87× 105 km2, which are mainly concentrated in Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan, respectively. In addition, the largest regions for expansion, stability, and contraction under various time scales are 5.6 × 105 km2, 3.54 × 105 km2, and 3.47 × 105 km2, respectively. These changes indicate that approximately 7.96% of the regions are highly stable, and three critical counties, Wanyuan, Chenggu, and Hechuan, and Xixiang, have become significant areas for migration. Overall, our results indicate that there are different spatial distribution patterns and dynamics for E. brevicornum for different time scales. Given these results, this study also proposes comprehensive strategies for the conservation and management of E. brevicornum, which will further improve the current resource utilization status.

Potential Global Distribution of Paracoccus marginatus, under Climate Change Conditions, Using MaxEnt

The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is an invasive pest species found all over the world. It is native to Mexico and Central America, but is now present in more than 50 countries and regions, seriously threatening the economic viability of the agricultural and forestry industry. In the current study, the global potential distribution of P. marginatus was predicted under current and future climatic conditions using MaxEnt. The results of the model assessment indicated that the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic ( ROC-AUC) was 0.949, while the TSS value was 0.820. The results also showed that the three variables with the greatest impact on the model were min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of wettest month (bio13), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), with corresponding contributions of 46.8%, 31.1%, and 13.1%, respectively. The results indicated that the highly suitable areas were mainly located in tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, southern North America, Central America, Central Africa, Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia. Under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, the area of suitability will change very little. Moreover, the results showed that the area of suitable areas in 2070s increased under all four climate scenarios compared to the current climate. In contrast, the area of suitable habitat increases from the current to the 2050s under the SSP370 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The current study could provide a reference framework for the future control and management of papaya mealybug and other invasive species.

Environmental factors influencing potential distribution of Schisandra sphenanthera and its accumulation of medicinal components

Schisandrae Sphenantherae Fructus (SSF), the dry ripe fruit of Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils., is a traditional Chinese medicine with wide application potential. The quality of SSF indicated by the composition and contents of secondary metabolites is closely related to environmental factors, such as regional climate and soil conditions. The aims of this study were to predict the distribution patterns of potentially suitable areas for S. sphenanthera in China and pinpoint the major environmental factors influencing its accumulation of medicinal components. An optimized maximum entropy model was developed and applied under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-RCP7, and SSP5-RCP8.5). Results show that the total suitable areas for S. sphenanthera (179.58×104 km2) cover 18.71% of China's territory under the current climatic conditions (1981-2010). Poorly, moderately, and highly suitable areas are 119.00×104 km2, 49.61×104 km2, and 10.98×104 km2, respectively. The potentially suitable areas for S. sphenanthera are predicted to shrink and shift westward under the future climatic conditions (2041-2070 and 2071-2100). The areas of low climate impact are located in southern Shaanxi, northwestern Guizhou, southeastern Chongqing, and western Hubei Provinces (or Municipality), which exhibit stable and high suitability under different climate scenarios. The contents of volatile oils, lignans, and polysaccharides in SSF are correlated with various environmental factors. The accumulation of major secondary metabolites is primarily influenced by temperature variation, seasonal precipitation, and annual precipitation. This study depicts the potential distribution of S. sphenanthera in China and its spatial change in the future. Our findings decipher the influence of habitat environment on the geographical distribution and medicinal quality of S. sphenanthera, which could have great implications for natural resource conservation and artificial cultivation.

Invasion risks presented by Gonopsis affinis and the use of Trissolcus mitsukurii as a biological control agent under present and future climate conditions

BACKGROUND

Gonopsis affinis (Uhler) is a stinkbug that represents a significant threat to the production of rice (Oryza sativa L.), sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) and eulalia (Miscanthus sinensis (Andersson)), and has been listed as a sugarcane pest in Japan. Trissolcus mitsukurii Ashmead is an egg parasitoid of G. affinis. To determine the potential of T. mitsukurii to be a biological control agent for G. affinis, we aim to predict the current and future areas of suitable habitat for these two species and their overlap with areas of present crop production. We developed MaxEnt models using two different variable selection methods and compared the two for T. mitsukurii with a CLIMEX model.

RESULTS

The results showed extensive suitable areas for G. affinis under current climate conditions in East Asia, West Africa, Madagascar, and South America. These ranges overlap with areas currently being used for the production of the three crops in question. More than half overlap with areas of suitable habitat for T. mitsukurii. The most critical environmental variable determining habitat suitability for G. affinis was showed to be precipitation of warmest quarter, whilst for T. mitsukurii it was minimum temperature of the coldest month.

CONCLUSION

Based on our assessment we recommend the immediate implementation of monitoring and invasion prevention measures for G. affinis in southwest China, the Malay Archipelago and West Africa. We suggest that T. mitsukurii be considered for use as a biological control agent in East Asia, Madagascar, Florida and Brazil in the case of future invasions by G. affinis. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Study on environmental factors affecting the quality of codonopsis radix based on MaxEnt model and all-in-one functional factor

Owing to the increasing market demand of Codonopsis Radix, the cropper blindly cultivates to expand planting area for economic benefits, which seriously affects the quality of Codonopsis Radix. Therefore, this study synthesized 207 batches of Codonopsis Radix and 115 ecological factors, and analyzed the suitable planting areas of Codonopsis pilosula under current and future climate change based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and MaxEnt model. Secondly, we evaluated the quality of Codonopsis Radix based on the all-in-one functional factor including chromatographic fingerprint, the index components, the effective compounds groups, the nutritional components, and the nutritional elements, and the quality regionalization of Codonopsis Radix was analyzed. Finally, the ecological factors affecting the accumulation of effective components of Codonopsis Radix were analyzed. This study found for the first time that the highly suitable area of Codonopsis pilosula was mainly distributed in the Weihe River system and the Bailongjiang River system in Gansu Province. There were differences in the quality of Codonopsis Radix from different ecologically suitable areas based on the all-in-one functional factors, and the comprehensive high-quality area of Codonopsis Radix was mainly distributed in Longnan and Longxi district of Gansu Province. The precipitation, temperature and altitude play a key role in the accumulation of chemical components in the 10 ecological factors affecting the distribution of Codonopsis pilosula. Under future climatic conditions, the highly suitable area of Codonopsis pilosula is decreased.

Can highway tunnel constructıon change the habitat selection of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus Linnaeus, 1758)?

One of the main things wildlife does for survival is movement. Wild animals need movement to meet their needs, such as reproduction, breeding, foraging, and dispersal. Although wildlife species use roads for various purposes, they also use them when moving from one habitat to another. In recent years, especially when it comes to habitat fragmentation brought about by urbanization, wild animals frequently use highways. Highways have a wide range of effects on factors such as biodiversity, wildlife, and ecology. Roads can cause habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, and habitat degradation; alter the composition of vegetation; act as barriers to the flow of genes and movement; increase human access to pristine areas; and even increase the risk of extinction for many threatened species. Species belonging to the family Cervidae also include the species most affected by road networks. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus Linnaeus, 1758) is the smallest of the 3 Cervid species living in Turkey. Roe deer are often injured or die in road accidents, and they are one of the most important species affected by the adverse effects of roads in Turkey. For this reason, it was investigated whether the road tunnel construction affected the distribution of roe deer in the region. In the study, the general distribution of roe deer in the Ilgaz Mountain, and the factors affecting their possible distribution were determined by ecological niche modeling. Data were taken between before (2012-2015) and after the highway tunnel built (2020-2022) in Ilgaz Mountain, which connects the Western Black Sea and Central Anatolia and is located in the middle of Kastamonu and Çankırı provinces. As a result of the modeling, it was found that before the construction of the tunnel, the most influential factor in the distribution of the deer was road density. After the tunnel construction, roads ceased to be the main factor affecting the distribution of the species. This study showed that roe deer are disturbed by the density of vehicles on the road passing through the middle of their habitat. With the decrease in the number of vehicles, they are more willing to cross the road and tend to use the areas close to the road as they are less disturbed.

The dimensionality reductions of environmental variables have a significant effect on the performance of species distribution models

How to effectively obtain species-related low-dimensional data from massive environmental variables has become an urgent problem for species distribution models (SDMs). In this study, we will explore whether dimensionality reduction on environmental variables can improve the predictive performance of SDMs. We first used two linear (i.e., principal component analysis (PCA) and independent components analysis) and two nonlinear (i.e., kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) and uniform manifold approximation and projection) dimensionality reduction techniques (DRTs) to reduce the dimensionality of high-dimensional environmental data. Then, we established five SDMs based on the environmental variables of dimensionality reduction for 23 real plant species and nine virtual species, and compared the predictive performance of those with the SDMs based on the selected environmental variables through Pearson's correlation coefficient (PCC). In addition, we studied the effects of DRTs, model complexity, and sample size on the predictive performance of SDMs. The predictive performance of SDMs under DRTs other than KPCA is better than using PCC. And the predictive performance of SDMs using linear DRTs is better than using nonlinear DRTs. In addition, using DRTs to deal with environmental variables has no less impact on the predictive performance of SDMs than model complexity and sample size. When the model complexity is at the complex level, PCA can improve the predictive performance of SDMs the most by 2.55% compared with PCC. At the middle level of sample size, the PCA improved the predictive performance of SDMs by 2.68% compared with the PCC. Our study demonstrates that DRTs have a significant effect on the predictive performance of SDMs. Specifically, linear DRTs, especially PCA, are more effective at improving model predictive performance under relatively complex model complexity or large sample sizes.

Assessing the suitability and dynamics of three medicinal Sambucus species in China under current and future climate scenarios

Climate change exerts profound influences on the ecological environments on a global scale, leading to habitat destruction and altering distribution patterns for numerous plant species. Traditional Chinese medicinal plants, such as those belonging to the Sambucus genus, have been extensively utilized for several centuries to treat fractures, rheumatism, and inflammation. However, our understanding of their geographic distribution and climatic adaptation within China still needs to be improved. In this study, we screened the optimal predictive model (random forest model) to predict the potential suitable distribution of three Sambucus species (Sambucus adnata, Sambucus javanica, and Sambucus williamsii) across China under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, we identified key climate factors that influence their potential distributions. Our findings revealed that S. adnata and S. javanica are predominantly shaped by temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range, respectively, whereas S. williamsii is significantly affected by the precipitation of the wettest month. Currently, S. williamsii is primarily distributed in north and central south China (covering 9.57 × 105 km2), S. javanica is prevalent in the south and east regions (covering 6.41×105 km2), and S. adnata predominantly thrives in the southwest China (covering 1.99×105 km2). Under future climate change scenarios, it is anticipated that S. adnata may migrate to higher latitudes while S. javanica may shift to lower latitudes. However, potentially suitable areas for S. williamsii may contract under certain scenarios for the years 2050 and 2090, with an expansion trend under the SSP585 scenario for the year 2090. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic variables in influencing the potential geographic distribution of Sambucus species. These findings provide valuable theoretical insights for the preservation, cultivation, and utilization of Sambucus medicinal plant resources in the context of ongoing climate change.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Wild Radish in East Asia

Climate change can exert a considerable influence on the geographic distribution of many taxa, including coastal plants and populations of some plant species closely related to those used as agricultural crops. East Asian wild radish, Raphanus raphanistrum subsp. sativus, is an annual coastal plant that is a wild relative of the cultivated radish (R. sativus). It has served as source of genetic material that has been helpful to develop and improve the quality and yield of radish crops. To assess the impact of climate change on wild radish in East Asia, we analyzed its distribution at different periods using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results indicated that the precipitation of the driest month (bio14) and precipitation seasonality (bio15) were the two most dominant environmental factors that affected the geographical distribution of wild radish in East Asia. The total potential area suitable for wild radish is 102.5574 × 104 km2, mainly located along the seacoasts of southern China, Korea, and the Japanese archipelago. Compared with its current distribution regions, the potentially suitable areas for wild radish in the 2070s will further increase and expand northwards in Japan, especially on the sand beach habitats of Hokkaido. This research reveals the spatiotemporal changes for the coastal plant wild radish under global warming and simultaneously provides a vital scientific basis for effective utilization and germplasm innovation for radish cultivars to achieve sustainable agriculture development.

Relatively high light inhibits reserves degradation in the Coptis chinensis rhizome during the leaf expansion by changing the source-sink relationship

The early spring is a seasonal high-light "window" for new leaf growth and photosynthetic carbon capture by the shade-tolerant evergreen understory plants. However, it remains unclear how light regulates the source-sink relationship between rhizome (RO), mature leaf (ML), and immature leaf (IL) during Coptis chinensis leaf expansion. Understanding this relationship is essential to reducing RO reserve degradation and ultimately promote RO biomass accumulation. The plants grew in an artificial climate chamber with low (50 μmol m-2 s-1) and relatively high (200 μmol m-2 s-1) light intensity treatments. Leaf fluorescence, foliar phosphorus (P) fractions, soluble sugars, starch, total P, and alkaloid concentrations in ILs, MLs, and RO were measured, and 13C labeling was used to indicate the direction of photosynthetic carbon flow between organs. The plants grown under high light intensity had higher levels of starch in RO and higher RO biomass at the end of the year compared to those grown under low light intensity. The photosystem II (PSII) operating efficiency [Y(II)], relative electron transport rate (rETR), and photochemical quenching (qP), as well as sucrose and glucose, in ILs and MLs under relatively high light, was higher than those under low light. The glucose and starch concentrations in ILs at 35 d was significantly higher than that at 15 d when plants were under 200 μmol m-2 s-1, while they were not significantly changed and remained low at 50 μmol m-2 s-1. The 13C was detected in the RO when plants were grown at 200 μmol m-2 s-1, regardless of ILs and MLs 13C labeling, while no 13C was detected in the RO when plants were under 50 μmol m-2 s-1. Additionally, the proportion of photosynthetic transport from ILs to MLs was significantly higher than that from MLs to ILs under the 50-μmol m-2 s-1 limit. Total P concentration in ILs was lower under relatively high light, but there was no difference in nucleic acid P concentration in ILs under the two light intensity treatments. The alkaloid concentration in RO was lower under 200 μmol m-2 s-1 than that under 50 μmol m-2 s-1. We propose that relatively high light reduces the need for carbohydrates and P stored in the RO to support IL growth by (1) accelerating the sink-to-source transition in ILs, which inhibits the use of reserves in the RO; (2) using energy from MLs to support IL growth, thereby reducing RO reserve consumption, and (3) reducing the demand for P by investing less in the development of photosynthetic machinery. Furthermore, under low light, MLs serve as a sink and rely on other organs for support, directly or indirectly exacerbating the reserves lost in the RO.

Two Species Delimitation of Pseudaulacaspis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) Based on Morphology, Molecular Clustering, and Niche Differentiation

Pseudaucalaspis pentagona and P. prunicola are notorious pests and commonly feed on various ornamental plants and fruit trees worldwide. The two species share many host-plant species, and are similar in morphological characteristics and life cycle, making it difficult to distinguish to distinguish between them. In this study, morphological characteristics, molecular evidence, and ecological niches were used to define these species. We performed PCA analysis on 22 morphological characteristics that allowed the delineation of the species. We then sequenced the COI gene of both species revealing five populations of P. pentagona and one population of P. prunicola, and the higher support rate could distinguish the two species. We also identified the potential distribution area of the two species based on the MaxEnt niche model, which showed that the degree of niche overlap was high, but that they occupied different niches. Ultimately, we combined three lines of evidence to show that the two species are distinctly different. This study supports species definition using combined morphology, genetics, and ecology and provides a theoretical basis for the effective control of these two pests in the future.

The influence of climate and population density on Buxus hyrcana potential distribution and habitat connectivity

Changes in environmental factors, human impact, and interactions between them accelerate the extinction of woody species. Therefore, conservation programs are needed to protect endangered taxa. However, the relationship between climate, habitat fragmentation, and anthropogenic activities and their consequences are still not well understood. In this work, we aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change and human population density on the Buxus hyrcana Pojark distribution range, as well as the phenomenon of habitat fragmentation. Based on species occurrence data throughout the Hyrcanian Forests (north of Iran), the MAXENT model was employed to estimate the potential distribution and suitability changes. Morphological-spatial analysis (MSPA) and CIRCUITSCAPE were used to assess habitat fragmentation and its connectivity. According to the main results obtained from future scenarios, the potential range will significantly decrease due to the lack of suitable climatic conditions. Meanwhile, B. hyrcana may not be able to shift in potentially suitable areas because of human influence and geographic barriers. Under RCP scenarios the extent of the core area would be reduced and the edge/core ratio significantly increased. Altogether, we found negative effects of the environmental change and the human population density on the continuity of habitats of B. hyrcana. The results of the presented work may improve our knowledge connected with in situ and ex situ protection strategies.

Environmental and climatic drivers of phenotypic evolution and distribution changes in a widely distributed subfamily of subterranean mammals

How environmental factors shape species morphology and distributions is a key issue in ecology, especially in similar environments. Species of Myospalacinae exhibit widespread distribution spanning the eastern Eurasian steppe and the extreme adaptation to the subterranean environment, providing an excellent opportunity for investigating species responses to environmental changes. At the national scale, we here use geometric morphometric and distributional data to assess the environmental and climatic drivers of morphological evolution and distribution of Myospalacinae species in China. Based on phylogenetic relationships of Myospalacinae species constructed using genomic data in China, we integrate geometric morphometrics and ecological niche models to reveal the interspecific variation of skull morphology, trace the ancestral state, and assess factors influencing interspecific variation. Our approach further allows us to project future distributions of Myospalacinae species throughout China. We found that the interspecific morphology variations were mainly concentrated in the temporal ridge, premaxillary-frontal suture, premaxillary-maxillary suture, and molars, and the skull morphology of the two current species in Myospalacinae followed the ancestral state; temperature and precipitation were important environmental variables influencing skull morphology. Elevation, temperature annual range, and precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as dominant factors affecting the distribution of Myospalacinae species in China, and their suitable habitat area will decrease in the future. Collectively, environmental and climate changes have an effect on skull phenotypes of subterranean mammals, highlighting the contribution of phenotypic differentiation in similar environments in the formation of species phenotypes. Climate change will further shrink their habitats under future climate assumptions in the short-term. Our findings provide new insights into effects of environmental and climate change on the morphological evolution and distribution of species as well as a reference for biodiversity conservation and species management.

Comprehensive analysis of the complete mitochondrial genomes of three Coptis species (C. chinensis, C. deltoidea and C. omeiensis): the important medicinal plants in China

Coptis plants (Ranunculaceae) contain high levels of isoquinoline alkaloids and have a long history of medicinal use. Coptis species are of great value in pharmaceutical industries and scientific research. Mitochondria are considered as one of the central units for receiving stress signals and arranging immediate responses. Comprehensive characterizations of plant mitogenomes are imperative for revealing the relationship between mitochondria, elucidating biological functions of mitochondria and understanding the environmental adaptation mechanisms of plants. Here, the mitochondrial genomes of C. chinensis, C. deltoidea and C. omeiensis were assembled through the Nanopore and Illumina sequencing platform for the first time. The genome organization, gene number, RNA editing sites, repeat sequences, gene migration from chloroplast to mitochondria were compared. The mitogenomes of C. chinensis, C. deltoidea and C. omeiensis have six, two, two circular-mapping molecules with the total length of 1,425,403 bp, 1,520,338 bp and 1,152,812 bp, respectively. The complete mitogenomes harbors 68-86 predicted functional genes including 39-51 PCGs, 26-35 tRNAs and 2-5 rRNAs. C. deltoidea mitogenome host the most abundant repeat sequences, while C. chinensis mitogenome has the largest number of transferred fragments from its chloroplasts. The large repeat sequences and foreign sequences in the mitochondrial genomes of Coptis species were related to substantial rearrangements, changes in relative position of genes and multiple copy genes. Further comparative analysis illustrated that the PCGs under selected pressure in mitochondrial genomes of the three Coptis species mainly belong to the mitochondrial complex I (NADH dehydrogenase). Heat stress adversely affected the mitochondrial complex I and V, antioxidant enzyme system, ROS accumulation and ATP production of the three Coptis species. The activation of antioxidant enzymes, increase of T-AOC and maintenance of low ROS accumulation in C. chinensis under heat stress were suggested as the factors for its thermal acclimation and normal growth at lower altitudes. This study provides comprehensive information on the Coptis mitogenomes and is of great importance to elucidate the mitochondrial functions, understand the different thermal acclimation mechanisms of Coptis plants, and breed heat-tolerant varieties.

Climate change impacts on optimal habitat of Stachys inflata medicinal plant in central Iran

Stachys inflata Benth. is a perennial shrub plant, with powerful natural antioxidant agents, which is recognized as a famous medicinal plant that is widely applied to treat Infection, Asthma, and Rheumatism. Iran is renowned as a center of diversity for Stachys, however, the ideal habitats of S. inflata in this nation remain unknown. The potential and future distribution of suitable habitats for S. inflata were projected using an ensembles ecological niche model in Isfahan province, Iran. We used occurrence data (using GPS), bioclimatic and topographic variables from the Chelsa and WorldClim databases to model the current and future potential distribution of this valuable species. The results showed that: (i) S. inflata is mainly distributed in the south, southwest, center, and west of the Isfahan province, and the excellent habitats of S. inflata accounted for 14.34% of the 107,000 km² study area; (ii) mean annual temperature, mean daily temperature of wettest quarter, annual precipitation, and elevation were the four most important variables that affect the distribution of S. inflata, with a cumulative contribution of 56.55%; and (iii) about the half (- 42.36%) of the currently excellent habitats of S. inflata show a tendency to decrease from now to the 2080s, while often the area of other S. inflata habitats increases (the area of unsuitable habitat: 5.83%, the area of low habitat suitability: 24.68%, the area of moderate habitat suitability: 2.66%, and the area of high habitat suitability: 2.88%). The increase in the area of other S. inflata habitats is different and they are less favorable than the excellent habitat. The results help establishing a framework for long-term in-situ and ex-situ conservation and management practices in habitats of S. inflata in rangeland and agricultural ecosystems.

The Distribution Pattern and Species Richness of Scorpionflies (Mecoptera: Panorpidae)

The uneven distribution of species diversity on earth, with mountainous regions housing half of the high species diversity areas, makes mountain ecosystems vital to biodiversity conservation. The Panorpidae are ecological indicators, ideal for studying the impact of climate change on potential insect distribution. This study examines the impact of environmental factors on the distribution of the Panorpidae and analyzes how their distribution has changed over three historical periods, the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Current. The MaxEnt model is used to predict the potential distribution area of Panorpidae based on global distribution data. The results show that precipitation and elevation are the primary factors affecting species richness, and the suitable areas for Panorpidae are distributed in southeastern North America, Europe, and southeastern Asia. Throughout the three historical periods, there was an initial increase followed by a decrease in the area of suitable habitats. During the LGM period, there was a maximum range of suitable habitats for cool-adapted insects, such as scorpionflies. Under the scenarios of global warming, the suitable habitats for Panorpidae would shrink, posing a challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. The study provides insights into the potential geographic range of Panorpidae and helps understand the impact of climate change on their distribution.

Assessing environmental suitability of Ligusticum chuanxiong based on ecological analyses with chemical and molecular verification

Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort. as an important Chinese medicinal herb clinically used as anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and hepatoprotective agents, is widely planted in China. However, related studies on L. chuanxiong's distribution and significant environmental factors that affect its growth are insufficient. Based on climatic, topographic and soil factors, this study predicted current and future distributions of L. chuanxiong and analyzed the distribution transformation under different scenarios. Moreover, the most important environmental factors for modeling were explored using maximum entropy models, chemical analysis and molecular analysis. Results suggested that the predicted distribution of L. chuanxiong was wider than previously reported. Among these environmental variables, climate factors, especially the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6, 46.7%) and solar radiation (SRAD, 43.4%) contributed more than others to L. chuanxiong's distribution with optimum values of 0-1.5 °C and 5000-11,000 kJ/m² per day. Total and highly suitable areas respectively increased by 26,788-943,820 km² and 34,757-340,417 km² in the future (2061-2080, 2081-2100). The distribution centers of suitable zones were predicted to migrate north in the future, and the migration distance was 135.74-479.77 km from current center. Results of chemical content determination suggested that L. chuanxiong should be cultivated in high-suitable places to improve medicinal quality by evaluating contents of ferulic acids and Z-ligustilide. Correlation analysis suggested that both chemical contents and gene expression levels decreased with decreasing habitat suitability, suggesting a strong link between environments, chemical constituents, and gene expression. These findings improve the comprehension of the effects of environments on the distribution patterns of L. chuanxiong, as well the relation between environmental suitability and medicinal quality. These findings provide a useful foundation for the planting, cultivation and conservation of L. chuanxiong.

Similarity but not equivalence: Ecological niche comparison between sandflies from the Pleistocene and future scenarios in Central and South America

Sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) are suspected or proven vectors of Leishmania spp. in the American region. Understanding niche conservatism (NC) in insect vectors allows an understanding of constraints on adaptive responses, and thus implications for disease ecology. Therefore, in this study, the authors evaluated NC in three vector species of leishmaniasis (Lutzomyia gomezi, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia ovallesi) in Central and South America. For this, the authors performed niche identity and similarity testing through paired comparisons in ENMTools and niche overlap in Niche Analyst. The authors found that species niches were more similar to each other than if the points had been randomly extracted, and they also found extensive similarity between Pa. shannoni and Lu. gomezi niches and in Pa. shannoni niches over different timescales. The authors suggest Pa. shannoni as a priority species due to fundamental niche similarity with phylogenetically related species and also its extensive evolutionary history and ecological plasticity that could affect the emergence and resurgence of leishmaniasis in areas endemic by this vector.

Priority planting area planning for cash crops under heavy metal pollution and climate change: A case study of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort

INTRODUCTION

Soil pollution by heavy metals and climate change pose substantial threats to the habitat suitability of cash crops. Discussing the suitability of cash crops in this context is necessary for the conservation and management of species. We developed a comprehensive evaluation system that is universally applicable to all plants stressed by heavy metal pollution.

METHODS

The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort within the study area (Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing) based on current and future climate conditions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios). We established the current Cd pollution status in the study area using kriging interpolation and kernel density. Additionally, the three scenarios were used in prediction models to simulate future Cd pollution conditions based on current Cd pollution data. The current and future priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were determined by overlay analysis, and two levels of results were obtained.

RESULTS

The results revealed that the current first- and secondary-priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were 2.06 ×10³ km² and 1.64 ×10⁴ km², respectively. Of these areas, the seven primary and twelve secondary counties for current L. chuanxiong cultivation should be given higher priority; these areas include Meishan, Qionglai, Pujiang, and other regions. Furthermore, all the priority zones based on the current and future scenarios were mainly concentrated on the Chengdu Plain, southeastern Sichuan and northern Chongqing. Future planning results indicated that Renshou, Pingwu, Meishan, Qionglai, Pengshan, and other regions are very important for L. chuanxiong planting, and a pessimistic scenario will negatively impact this potential planting. The spatial dynamics of priority areas in 2050 and 2070 clearly fluctuated under different prediction scenarios and were mainly distributed in northern Sichuan and western Chongqing.

DISCUSSION

Given these results, taking reasonable measures to replan and manage these areas is necessary. This study provides. not only a useful reference for the protection and cultivation of L. chuanxiong, but also a framework for analyzing other cash crops.

Analysis of niche shift and potential suitable distributions of Dendrobium under the impact of global climate change

Dendrobium is a valuable traditional Chinese herb that contains active ingredients such as polysaccharides and alkaloids that have anti-aging, antioxidant, and immunomodulating effects. The appropriate distribution range of Dendrobium should be predicted from the perspective of ecological niche theory in order to preserve and utilize medicinal plant resources. In this study, Dendrobium nobile, Dendrobium officinale, and Dendrobium moniliforme were selected to predict the potential suitable distributions and ecological niche shifts. A comparison of 19 environmental variables of the three Dendrobium species revealed three climatic factors that differed significantly when the species were compared two at a time. The principal component analysis was carried out in order to screen seven climatic factors for ecological niche shift analysis. All three Dendrobium species were found to have a very similar ecological niche, but with a relatively small range of variability regarding certain climatic factors. Finally, the current and future suitable areas for these three Dendrobium species in China were predicted using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS using the two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). Overall, the analysis of the climatic factors' comparisons, niche shift, and current and future suitable areas of these three Dendrobium species provides a basis for medicinal plant resource conservation and utilization, and our methods could be applied to the study of other similar valuable medicinal plants.

Assessing the suitable regions and the key factors for three Cd-accumulating plants (Sedum alfredii, Phytolacca americana, and Hylotelephium spectabile) in China using MaxEnt model

Phytoremediation is an effective way to remove metals from contaminated soil, and selecting remediation plants suitable for climate conditions is a prerequisite for effective phytoremediation. In this study, a MaxEnt model was applied to investigate the potential distribution and habitat suitability of three Cd-accumulating plants in China- Sedum alfredii, Phytolacca americana, and Hylotelephium spectabile and explore the key environmental factors that affect their habitat suitability. A total of 44 environmental parameters, including bioclimatic variables, altitude, and soil property parameters were used. The results showed that: (1) For S. alfredii, suitable areas account for 14.9 % of the area of China, which are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. (2) The suitable areas of P. americana account for 22.7 % of China and are mainly located in the regions of the Qinling Mountains and the south of China. (3) While that for H. spectabile are mainly located in the regions of northeastern China and certain regions of central China, with suitable areas account for 8.3 % of the area of China. (4) The distribution of these three plants is significantly affected by precipitation; specifically, solar radiation is an influential factor for the distribution of S. alfredii and H. spectabile, and temperature limits the distribution of P. americana. The selection and agronomic management of hyperaccumulators for phytoremediation requires multifactor consideration (e.g., climate, soil conditions and planting patterns). The results can provide guidance for identifying suitable areas for planting these three accumulating plants, which could not only prevent the unscientific cultivation of them in unsuitable habitats but also enhance the efficiency of phytoremediation. Meanwhile, these findings are expected to contribute to agronomic management for improved phytoremediation effects in different Cd-contaminated regions of China.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Pine Wilt Disease in China under Climate Change

The primary culprits of pine wilt disease (PWD), an epidemic forest disease that significantly endangers the human environment and the world's forest resources, are pinewood nematodes (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus). The MaxEnt model has been used to predict and analyze the potential geographic spread of PWD in China under the effects of climate change and can serve as a foundation for high-efficiency monitoring, supervision, and prompt prevention and management. In this work, the MaxEnt model's criteria settings were optimized using data from 646 PWD infestation sites and seven climate variables from the ENMeval data package. It simulated and forecasted how PWD may be distributed under present and future (the 2050s and 2070s) climatic circumstances, and the key climate factors influencing the disease were examined. The area under AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) is 0.940 under the parameters, demonstrating the accuracy of the simulation. Under the current climate conditions, the moderately and highly suitable habitats of PWD are distributed in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, and other provinces. The outcomes demonstrated that the fundamental climate variables influencing the PWD distribution were rainfall and temperature, specifically including maximum temperature of warmest month, mean temperature of driest quarter, coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of wettest quarter. The evaluation outcomes of the MaxEnt model revealed that the total and highly suitable areas of PWD will expand substantially by both 2050 and 2070, and the potential distribution of PWD will have a tendency to spread towards high altitudes and latitudes.

How climate, landscape, and economic changes increase the exposure of Echinococcus Spp

BACKGROUND

Echinococcosis is a global enzootic disease influenced by different biological and environmental factors and causes a heavy financial burden on sick families and governments. Currently, government subsidies for the treatment of patients with echinococcosis are only a fixed number despite patients' finical income or cost of treatment, and health authorities are demanded to supply an annual summary of only endemic data. The risk to people in urban areas or non-endemic is increasing with climate, landscape, and lifestyle changes.

METHODS

We conducted retrospective descriptive research on inpatients with human echinococcosis (HE) in Lanzhou hospitals and analyzed the healthcare expenditure on inpatient treatment and examined the financial inequalities relating to different levels of gross domestic product. The livestock losses were also estimated by infection ratio. The occurrence records of Echinococcus spp. composed of hospitalized patients and dogs infected in the Gansu province were collected for Ecological niche modeling (ENM) to estimate the current suitable spatial distribution for the parasite in Gansu province. Then, we imported the resulting current niche model into future global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios for estimation of future suitable habitat areas.

RESULTS

Between 2000 to 2020, 625 hospitalized HE patients (51% men and 49% women) were identified, and 48.32 ± 15.62 years old. The average cost of hospitalization expenses per case of HE in Gansu Province was ￥24,370.2 with an increasing trend during the study period and was negative with different counties' corresponding gross domestic product (GDP). The trend of livestock losses was similar to the average cost of hospitalization expenses from 2015 to 2017. The three factors with the strongest correlation to echinococcosis infection probability were (1) global land cover (GLC, 56.6%), (2) annual precipitation (Bio12, 21.2%), and (3) mean temperature of the Wettest Quarter (Bio12, 8.5% of variations). We obtained a robust model that provides detail on the distribution of suitable areas for Echinococcus spp. including areas that have not been reported for the parasite. An increasing tendency was observed in the highly suitable areas of Echinococcus spp. indicating that environmental changes would affect the distributions.

CONCLUSION

This study may help in the development of policies for at-risk populations in geographically defined areas and monitor improvements in HE control strategies by allowing targeted allocation of resources, including spatial analyses of expenditure and the identification of non-endemic areas or risk for these parasites, and a better comprehension of the role of the environment in clarifying the transmission dynamics of Echinococcus spp. Raising healthcare workers' and travelers' disease awareness and preventive health habits is an urgent agenda. Due to unpredictable future land cover types, prediction of the future with only climatic variables involved needs to be treated cautiously.

Modeling current geographic distribution and future range shifts of Sanghuangporus under multiple climate change scenarios in China

The genus Sanghuangporus is well-known for its edible and medicinal values. In this study, the most comprehensive occurrence records of Sanghuangporus with accurate species identification are subjected to MaxEnt, to model the current geographic distribution and future range shifts under multiple climate change scenarios in China. The current potential distribution model of Sanghuangporus is excellently predicted as indicated by the value of Area Under Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve. The current potential distribution basically corresponds to the known occurrence records of Sanghuangporus, and provides clues to new suitable habitats. The critical environmental variables to the distribution are annual precipitation, host plant, annual mean temperature and elevation. Host plant is not the most critical contribution to the model, but it indeed plays a decisive role in restricting the distribution of Sanghuangporus. This role is further confirmed by the distribution area of the highly suitable habitat increasing by 155.468%, when excluding host plant from environmental variables. For future scenarios, generally the area of highly suitable habitat for Sanghuangporus extremely increases, but the locations do not change a lot. In conclusion, this study provides important ecological information for the utilization and conservation of the edible and medicinal fungus Sanghuangporus.

Cordyceps cicadae and Cordyceps gunnii have closer species correlation with Cordyceps sinensis: from the perspective of metabonomic and MaxEnt models

Cordyceps sinensis is a second-class nationally-protected medicinal fungus and functional food. Cordyceps sinensis resources are endangered, and finding new medicinal materials is a fast and economical way to meet the current demonstrated demand, which can effectively solve the shortage of C. sinensis resources. In this study, the metabolite characteristics of Cordyceps were comprehensively revealed by LC-QTOF-MS technology. The maxent model can be used to predict the habitat suitability distribution of Cordyceps and screen out the main climatic factors affecting its distribution. The correlation model between climate factors and chemical components was established by Pearson correlation analysis. Finally, based on the analysis of climate factors and metabolites, we will analyze the high correlation species with C. sinensis, and develop them as possible alternative species of C. sinensis in the future. The results showed that the suitable area of Cordyceps cicadae demonstrated a downward trend, while that of C. sinensis, Cordyceps militaris and Cordyceps gunnii demonstrated an upwards trend. The suitable areas all shifted to the northwest. The temperature seasonality and max temperature of the warmest month are the maximum climatic factors affecting nucleosides. Compared with C. sinensis, the metabolic spectrum similarities of C. cicadae, C. militaris, and C. gunnii were 94.42%, 80.82%, and 91.00%, respectively. Cordyceps sinensis, C. cicadae, and C. gunnii were correlated well for compounds and climate factors. This study will explore whether C. cicadae, C. militaris and C. gunnii can be used as substitutes for C. sinensis. Our results may provide a reference for resource conservation and sustainable utilization of endangered C. sinensis.

Evolutionary history of genus Coptis and its dynamic changes in the potential suitable distribution area

The genus Coptis belongs to the Ranunculaceae family, containing 15 recognized species highly diverse in morphology. It is a conspicuous taxon with special evolutionary position, distribution pattern and medicinal value, which makes it to be of great research and conservation significance. In order to better understand the evolutionary dynamics of Coptis and promote more practical conservation measures, we performed plastome sequencing and used the sequencing data in combination with worldwide occurrence data of Coptis to estimate genetic diversity and divergence times, rebuild biogeographic history and predict its potential suitable distribution area. The average nucleotide diversity of Coptis was 0.0067 and the hotspot regions with the highest hypermutation levels were located in the ycf1 gene. Coptis is most likely to have originated in North America and Japanese archipelago and has a typical Eastern Asian and North American disjunct distribution pattern, while the species diversity center is located in Mid-West China and Japan. The crown age of the genus is estimated at around 8.49 Mya. The most suitable climatic conditions for Coptis were as follows: precipitation of driest quarter > 25.5 mm, annual precipitation > 844.9 mm and annual mean temperature -3.1 to 19 °C. The global and China suitable area shows an upward trend in the future when emission of greenhouse gases is well controlled, but the area, especially in China, decreases significantly without greenhouse gas policy interventions. The results of this study provide a comprehensive insight into the Coptis evolutionary dynamics and will facilitate future conservation efforts.

Minimal climate change impacts on the geographic distribution of Nepeta glomerulosa, medicinal species endemic to southwestern and central Asia

Medicinal plants are valuable species, but their geographic distributions may be limited or exposed to extinction by climate change. Therefore, research on medicinal plants in the face of climate change is fundamental for developing conservation strategies. Distributional patterns for a semi-endemic medicinal plant species, Nepeta glomerulosa, distributed in southwestern and central Asia was determined based on a maximum-entropy algorithm. We evaluated potential geographic shifts in suitability patterns for this species under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) of climate change for 2060. Our models based on climatic features indicate that the species occupies montane areas under current conditions; transfer of the model to future climate scenarios indicated that suitable areas for the species will increase in general, and the species will likely track its favored set of climate conditions. But the types and degrees of these changes differ among areas. Our findings can be used to inform conservation management programs for medicinal, endemic, and endangered species that probably respond similarly to climate change in southwestern and central Asia.

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two relict Liriodendron species by coupling the MaxEnt model and actual physiological indicators in relation to stress tolerance

Climate change has a crucial impact on the distributions of plants, especially relict species. Hence, predicting the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of relict plants is critical for their future conservation. Liriodendron plants are relict trees, and only two natural species have survived: L. chinense and L. tulipifera. However, the extent of the impact of future climate change on the distributions of these two Liriodendron species remains unclear. Therefore, we predicted the suitable habitat distributions of two Liriodendron species under present and future climate scenarios using MaxEnt modeling. The results showed that the area of suitable habitats for two Liriodendron species would significantly decrease. However, the two relict species presented different habitat shift patterns, with a local contraction of suitable habitat for L. chinense and a northward shift in suitable habitat for L. tulipifera, indicating that changes in environmental factors will affect the distributions of these species. Among the environmental factors assessed, May precipitation induced the largest impact on the L. chinense distribution, while L. tulipifera was significantly affected by precipitation in the driest quarter. Furthermore, to explore the relationship between habitat suitability and Liriodendron stress tolerance, we analyzed six physiological indicators of stress tolerance by sampling twelve provenances of L. chinense and five provenances of L. tulipifera. The composite index of six physiological indicators was significantly negatively correlated with the habitat suitability of the species. The stress tolerance of Liriodendron plants in highly suitable areas was lower than that in areas with moderate or low suitability. Overall, these findings improve our understanding of the ecological impacts of climate change, informing future conservation efforts for Liriodendron species.

Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China

Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecological restoration, regional ecological protection, regulating the ecological balance, and maintaining biodiversity. However, previous studies have only focused on suitable distribution areas for species and not on the distribution of plant associations. Larix gmelinii is a sensitive and abundant species that occurs along the southern margin of the Eurasian boreal forests, and its distribution is closely related to permafrost. In this study, 420 original plots of L. gmelinii forests were investigated. We used a Maxent model and the ArcGIS software to project the potential geographical distribution of L. gmelinii associations in the future (by 2050 and 2070) according to the climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We used the multi‐classification logistic regression analysis method to obtain the response of the suitable area change for the L. gmelinii alliance and associations to climate change under different climate scenarios. Results revealed that temperature is the most crucial factor affecting the distribution of L. gmelinii forests and most of its associations under different climate scenarios. Suitable areas for each association type are shrinking by varying degrees, especially due to habitat loss at high altitudes in special terrains. Different L. gmelinii associations should have different management measures based on the site conditions, composition structure, growth, development, and renewal succession trends. Subsequent research should consider data on biological factors to obtain more accurate prediction results.

Predicting the distribution of suitable habitat of the poisonous weed Astragalus variabilis in China under current and future climate conditions

Astragalus variabilis is a locoweed of northwest China that can seriously impede livestock development. However, it also plays various ecological roles, such as wind protection and sand fixation. Here, we used an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of suitable habitat of A. variabilis under current (1970-2000) conditions and future (2021-2080) climate change scenarios based on recent occurrence records. The most important environmental variables (suitability ranges in parentheses) affecting the distribution of A. variabilis were average maximum temperature of February (-2.12-5.34^°C), followed by total precipitation of June (2.06-37.33 mm), and topsoil organic carbon (0.36-0.69%). The habitat suitability of A. variabilis was significantly correlated with the frequency of livestock poisoning (p < 0.05). Under current climate conditions, the suitable environment of A. variabilis was distributed in central and western Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, central and northwestern Gansu, central and northwestern Qinghai, and the four basins around the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang. Under future climate conditions, the suitable habitat of A. variabilis shifted to higher latitudes and altitudes. No previous studies have used niche models to predict the suitable environment of this species nor analyzed the relationship between the habitat suitability of poisonous plants and the frequency of animal poisoning. Our findings provide new insights that will aid the prevention of livestock animal poisoning and the control of poisonous plants, promote the development of the livestock husbandry industry, and provide basic information that will facilitate the maintenance of the ecological balance of grassland ecosystems.

Modeling the potential distribution of different types of Dendrocalamus sinicus, the strongest woody bamboo in the world, with MaxEnt model

Climate change will significantly affect the distribution area of species. Through establishing distribution model, we can simulate the current and future potential distribution range and provide reference for the introduction and cultivation planning of rare or economic plants. Dendrocalamus sinicus, endemic to Yunnan Province of China, is the strongest woody bamboo in the world. In the present study, the MaxEnt model was performed to simulate the distribution of different types of D. sinicus in China and neighboring countries or regions. The results suggested that the suitable distribution range of "straight type", the main type for cultivation and utilization, was 8°-30°N and 73°-122°E under the current climate conditions, while the potential distribution range of "bending type" was 6°-31°N and 79°-109°E. The two most key climate variables associated with distribution of "straight type" were "Temperature Annual Range" with 36.6% contribution rate and "Temperature Seasonality" (32.4%), while "Isothermality" (47.8%) and "Precipitation of Driest Month" (24.8%) for "bending type". Under different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and periods (2050, 2090), the potential distribution area of the "straight type" were apparently different, indicating that the distribution area of D. sinicus will be affected significantly by climate changes in the future. Our findings would be not only beneficial to understanding limiting factors for natural distribution of D. sinicus, but also helpful for further germplasm conservation, introduction and cultivation planning of this rare woody bamboo.

Potential distribution of Blumea balsamifera in China using MaxEnt and the ex situ conservation based on its effective components and fresh leaf yield

Blumea balsamifera is a famous Chinese Minority Medicine, which has a long history in Miao, Li, Zhuang, and other minority areas. In recent years, due to the influence of natural and human factors, the distribution area of B. balsamifera resources has a decreasing trend. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the suitability of B. balsamifera in China. Following three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of B. balsamifera. The contents of L-borneol and total flavonoids of B. balsamifera in different populations were determined by gas chromatography (GC) and ultraviolet spectrophotometry (UV). The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of B. balsamifera were mean temperature of coldest quarter (6.18-26.57 ℃), precipitation of driest quarter (22.46-169.7 mm), annual precipitation (518.36-1845.29 mm), and temperature seasonality (291.31-878.87). Under current climate situation, the highly suitable habitat was mainly located western Guangxi, southern Yunnan, most of Hainan, southwestern Guizhou, southwestern Guangdong, southeastern Fujian, and western Taiwan, with a total area of 24.1 × 10⁴ km². The areas of the moderately and poorly suitable habitats were 27.57 × 10⁴ km² and 42.43 × 10⁴ km², respectively. Under the future climate change scenarios, the areas of the highly, moderately, and poorly suitable habitats of B. balsamifera showed a significant increasing trend, the geometric center of the total suitable habitats of B. balsamifera would move to the northeast. In recent years, the planting area of B. balsamifera has been reduced on a large scale in Guizhou, and its ex situ protection is imperative. By comparison, the content of L-borneol, total flavonoids and fresh leaf yield had no significant difference between Guizhou and Hainan (P > 0.05), which indicated that Hainan is one of the best choice for ex situ protection of B. balsamifera.

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

Pteroceltis tatarinowii (Pteroceltis: Ulmaceae) is a deciduous tree that has a cultivation history of more than 2000 years in China. As an excellent afforestation tree species and rare and endangered tertiary relic plant, P. tatarinowii has high ecological protection value. Due to the forest destruction caused by predatory logging and natural environmental factors, the population of P. tatarinowii in China has decreased significantly. In this study, the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS based on 223 effective distribution points of P. tatarinowii and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, and the areas under curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.936; The area of the potential suitable habitat area of P. tatarinowii under current climate condition was 180.84×10⁴ km², and mainly located in the central and southeast regions of China. (2) The domain environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii were min temperature of coldest month (12.1~22.7°C), isothermality (26.6~35.8), mean diurnal range 6.9~9.3°C and precipitation of wettest month (189.5 ~955.5 mm). (3) In 2050s and 2070s, compared with current (4.19×10⁴ km²), the area of highly suitable habitat will increase by 0.2%-0.3% (RCP2.6) and 1.22%-3.84% (RCP8.5) respectively. while the poorly, moderately and total suitable habitats will decrease. The gravity center of P. tatarinowii showed a trend of migration to higher latitudes and northern regions in the future. These results will provide theoretical basis for cultivation management and resource protection of P. tatarinowii.

Effects of climate change on the distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata

Understanding the impacts and constraints of climate change on the geographical distribution of wild Akebia trifoliata is crucial for its sustainable management and economic development as a medicinal material or fruit. In this study, according to the first‐hand information obtained from field investigation, the distribution and response to climate change of A. trifoliata were studied by the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The genetic diversity and population structure of 21 natural populations of A. trifoliata were studied by simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. The results showed that the most important bioclimatic variable limiting the distribution of A. trifoliata was the Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter (bio11). Under the scenarios SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5, the suitable area of A. trifoliata in the world will remain stable, and the suitable area will increase significantly under the scenarios of SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable growth regions of A. trifoliata in China were 79.9–122.7°E and 21.5–37.5°N. Under the four emission scenarios in the future, the geometric center of the suitable distribution regions of Akebia trifoliata in China will move to the north. The clustering results of 21 populations of A. trifoliata analyzed by SSR markers showed that they had a trend of evolution from south to north.

Determination of Cultivation Regions and Quality Parameters of Poria cocos by Near-Infrared Spectroscopy and Chemometrics

Poria cocos (PC) is an important fungus with high medicinal and nutritional values. However, the quality of PC is heavily dependent on multiple factors in the cultivation regions. Traditional methods are not able to perform quality evaluation for this fungus in a short time, and a new method is needed for rapid quality assessment. Here, we used near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy combined with chemometric method to identify the cultivation regions and determine PC chemical compositions. In our study, 138 batches of samples were collected and their cultivation regions were distinguished by combining NIR spectroscopy and random forest method (RFM) with an accuracy as high as 92.59%. In the meantime, we used partial least square regression (PLSR) to build quantitative models and measure the content of water-soluble extract (WSE), ethanol-soluble extract (ASE), polysaccharides (PSC) and the sum of five triterpenoids (SFT). The performance of these models were verified with correlation coefficients (R²_cal and R²_pre) above 0.9 for the four quality parameters and the relative errors (RE) of PSC, WSE, ASE and SFT at 4.055%, 3.821%, 4.344% and 3.744%, respectively. Overall, a new approach was developed and validated which is able to distinguish PC production regions, quantify its chemical contents, and effectively evaluate PC quality.

Socio-Ecological Effects on the Patterns of Non-native Plant Distributions on Hainan Island

Non-native plants spread to recipient areas via natural or human-mediated modes of dispersal, and, if the non-native species are invasive, introduction potentially causes impacts on native plants and local ecosystems as well as economic losses. Therefore, we studied the diversity and distributional patterns of non-native plant species diversity in the tropical island province of Hainan, China and its relationships with environmental and socioeconomic factors by generating a checklist of species and subsequently performing an analysis of phylogenetic diversity. To generate the checklist, we began with the available, relevant literature representing 19 administrative units of Hainan and determined the casual, naturalized, or invasive status of each species by conducting field surveys within 14 administrative units. We found that non-native plants of Hainan comprise 77 casual species, 42 naturalized species, and 63 invasive species. Moreover, we found that non-native plant species had diverse origins from North and South America, Africa, and Asia and that the most common species across administrative areas belong to the plant families Asteraceae and Fabaceae. Moreover, the numbers of non-native species distributed in the areas of Hainan bording the coast arer greater than those within interior areas of the province. Among the coastal areas, Haikou has the highest species richness and, simultaneously, the highest values for significantly, positively correlated predictor variables, population and GDP (R2 = 0.60, P &lt; 0.01; R2 = 0.64, P &lt; 0.01, respectively). In contrast, the landlocked administrative units of Tunchang and Ding’an have the smallest number of non-native species, while their populations are less than a quarter of that of Haikou and their GDP less than one tenth. Among natural environmental variables, we determined that the number of non-native species had the strongest correlation with the minimum temperature in the coldest month, which predicts a smaller number of non-native species. Additionally, non-native species are primarily distributed in urban and rural built-up areas and agricultural areas; areas that are dominated by human activities. Overall, our study provides a working checklist of the non-native plants of Hainan as well as a theoretical framework and reference for the control of invasive plants of the province.

MaxEnt Modeling to Estimate the Impact of Climate Factors on Distribution of Pinus densiflora

Pinus densiflora is an important evergreen coniferous species with both economic and ecological value. It is an endemic species in East Asia. Global climate warming greatly interferes with species survival. This study explored the impact of climate change on the distribution of this species and the relationship between its geographical distribution and climate demand, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the protection of P. densiflora under the background of global warming. This research used 565 valid data points and 19 typical climatic environmental factors distributed in China, Japan, and South Korea. The potential distribution area of P. densiflora in East Asia under the last glacial maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene, the current situation and two scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) in the future (2050s and 2070s) was simulated by the MaxEnt model. The species distribution model toolbox in ArcGIS software was used to analyze the potential distribution range and change of P. densiflora. The contribution rates, jackknife test and environmental variable response curves were used to assess the importance of key climate factors. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model accuracy. The MaxEnt model had an excellent simulation effect (AUC = 0.982). The forecast showed that the Korean Peninsula and Japan were highly suitable areas for P. densiflora, and the area had little change. Moreover, during the LGM, there was no large-scale retreat to the south, and it was likely to survive in situ in mountain shelters. The results suggested that Japan may be the origin of P. densiflora rather than the Shandong Peninsula of China. The distribution area of P. densiflora in the mid-Holocene and future scenarios was reduced compared with the current distribution, and the reduction of future distribution was greater, indicating that climate warming will have certain negative impacts on the distribution of P. densiflora in the future. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), temperature seasonality (Bio4), mean annual temperature (Bio1) and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) had the greatest impact on the distribution area of P. densiflora.

Predicting potential distribution of Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen in China under climate change scenarios

Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen is a woody plant species of the family Rhamnaceae (order Rhamnales) that possesses high nutritional and medicinal value. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of Z. spinosa is of great significance for the investigation, protection, and exploitation of this germplasm resource. For this study, optimized maximum entropy models were employed to predict the distribution patterns and changes of its present (1970–2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) potential suitable regions in China under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 & SSP5‐8.5). The results revealed that the total area of the present potential suitable region for Z. spinosa is 162.60 × 10⁴ km², which accounts for 16.94% of China's territory. Within this area, the regions having low, medium, and high suitability were 80.14 × 10⁴ km², 81.50 × 10⁴ km², and 0.96 × 10⁴ km², respectively, with the high suitability regions being distributed primarily in Shanxi, Hebei, and Beijing Provinces. Except for SSP‐1‐2.6‐2070s, SSP‐5‐8.5‐2070s, and SSP‐5‐8.5‐2090s, the suitable areas for Z. spinosa in the future increased to different degrees. Meanwhile, considering the distribution of Z. spinosa during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study predicted that the low impact areas of Z. spinosa were mainly restricted to Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin Provinces. The results of core distributional shifts showed that, except for SSP1‐2.6, the center of the potential suitable region of Z. spinosa exhibited a trend of gradually shifting to the northwest.