The US COVID-19 pandemic in the flood season

Assessing the economic impacts of a perfect storm of extreme weather, pandemic control, and export restrictions: A methodological construct

This article investigates the economic impacts of a multi-disaster mix comprising extreme weather, such as flooding, pandemic control, and export restrictions, dubbed a "perfect storm." We develop a compound-hazard impact model that improves on the ARIO model by considering the economic interplay between different types of hazardous events. The model considers simultaneously cross-regional substitution and production specialization, which can influence the resilience of the economy to multiple shocks. We build scenarios to investigate economic impacts when a flood and a pandemic lockdown collide and how these are affected by the timing, duration, and intensity/strictness of each shock. In addition, we examine how export restrictions during a pandemic impact the economic losses and recovery, especially when there is the specialization of production of key sectors. The results suggest that an immediate, stricter but shorter pandemic control policy would help to reduce the economic costs inflicted by a perfect storm, and regional or global cooperation is needed to address the spillover effects of such compound events, especially in the context of the risks from deglobalization.

Tracking the molecular evolution and transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.466.2 in Indonesia based on genomic surveillance data

BACKGROUND

As a new epi-center of COVID-19 in Asia and a densely populated developing country, Indonesia is facing unprecedented challenges in public health. SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.466.2 was reported to be an indigenous dominant strain in Indonesia (once second only to the Delta variant). However, it remains unclear how this variant evolved and spread within such an archipelagic nation.

METHODS

For statistical description, the spatiotemporal distributions of the B.1.466.2 variant were plotted using the publicly accessible metadata in GISAID. A total of 1302 complete genome sequences of Indonesian B.1.466.2 strains with high coverage were downloaded from the GISAID's EpiCoV database on 28 August 2021. To determine the molecular evolutionary characteristics, we performed a time-scaled phylogenetic analysis using the maximum likelihood algorithm and called the single nucleotide variants taking the Wuhan-Hu-1 sequence as reference. To investigate the spatiotemporal transmission patterns, we estimated two dynamic parameters (effective population size and effective reproduction number) and reconstructed the phylogeography among different islands.

RESULTS

As of the end of August 2021, nearly 85% of the global SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.466.2 sequences (including the first one) were obtained from Indonesia. This variant was estimated to account for over 50% of Indonesia's daily infections during the period of March-May 2021. The time-scaled phylogeny suggested that SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.466.2 circulating in Indonesia might have originated from Java Island in mid-June 2020 and had evolved into two disproportional and distinct sub-lineages. High-frequency non-synonymous mutations were mostly found in the spike and NSP3; the S-D614G/N439K/P681R co-mutations were identified in its larger sub-lineage. The demographic history was inferred to have experienced four phases, with an exponential growth from October 2020 to February 2021. The effective reproduction number was estimated to have reached its peak (11.18) in late December 2020 and dropped to be less than one after early May 2021. The relevant phylogeography showed that Java and Sumatra might successively act as epi-centers and form a stable transmission loop. Additionally, several long-distance transmission links across seas were revealed.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the tropical archipelago may follow unique patterns of evolution and transmission. Continuous, extensive and targeted genomic surveillance is essential.

Learning From Each Other in the Management of Natural Disaster and COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study in Taiwan

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan has been one of the best performers in the world with extremely low infections and deaths. This success can be attributed to the long experiences dealing with natural disasters and communicable diseases. However, with different disastrous characteristics, the disaster management systems for communicable diseases and natural disasters are very different in terms of laws, plans, frameworks, and emergency operations. Taking the response to COVID-19 pandemic as a study subject, we found that disaster management for communicable diseases can be improved through a comparison with natural disasters, and vice versa. First, having wider and longer impacts than natural disasters, the plans and framework for communicable diseases in Taiwan focus more on national and regional scales. Local governments would need more capacity support including budgets and training to conduct investigations and quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, for quick response, the emergency operation for communicable diseases was designed to be more flexible than that for natural disasters by giving the commander more authority to adjust to the circumstances. The commanding system requires a more objective consultation group to prevent arbitrary decisions against the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, risk governance is important for communicable diseases as well as for natural disasters. Additional efforts should be made to enhance vulnerability assessment, disaster reduction, and risk communication for shaping responses and policies in an efficient and coordinating way.

Superposed Natural Hazards and Pandemics: Breaking Dams, Floods, and COVID-19

Within the engineering domain, safety issues are often related to engineering design and typically exclude factors such as epidemics, famine, and disease. This article provides a perspective on the reciprocal relationship and interaction between a natural hazard and a simultaneous pandemic outbreak and discusses how a catastrophic dam break, combined with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, poses a risk to human life. The paper uses grey- and peer-reviewed literature to support the discussion and reviews fundamentals of dam safety management, potential loss of life due to a dam break, and the recent evolution in dam risk analysis to account for the COVID-19 outbreak. Conventional risk reduction recommendations, such as quick evacuation and sheltering in communal centers, are revisited in the presence of a pandemic when social distancing is recommended. This perspective manuscript aims to provide insight into the multi-hazard risk problem resulting from a concurring natural hazard and global pandemic.

Geological and hydrometeorological hazards and related disasters amid COVID-19 pandemic in Greece: Post-disaster trends and factors affecting the COVID-19 evolution in affected areas

Since the first confirmed COVID-19 case in December 2019 the pandemic has severely affected humanity in various ways on all sectors of the everyday life. Natural hazards and related disasters did not stop for the novel virus. The parallel evolution of disasters and the pandemic have high potential for producing compound emergencies characterized by new unprecedented challenges. Greece was no exception. It was struck by disasters induced by geological and hydrometeorological hazards amid the pandemic. The most destructive events in terms of human and economic losses were the Mw = 5.7 Epirus and Mw = 6.9 Samos earthquakes on March 21 and October 30 respectively, the Evia flood on August 9 and the Ianos medicane in mid-September 2020. We studied the daily recorded laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases in the disaster-affected areas in selected pre- and post- disaster periods. Increase of the reported COVID-19 cases in the post-disaster period has been detected only after the Ianos medicane in affected areas. No change in cases was observed after the studied earthquakes and flood. We examined various factors related to the evolving pandemic, the studied disasters and their management plan that may have contributed to the post-disaster evolution of cases. It is shown that the preexisting viral load and the infection rate in the affected areas, the intensity of the disaster effects and the measures adopted for the effective disaster management of the compound emergencies have the potential to affect the post-disaster evolution of the pandemic in the disaster affected areas.

Floods and the COVID-19 pandemic-A new double hazard problem

The coincidence of floods and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a genuine multihazard problem. Since the beginning of 2020, many regions around the World have been experiencing this double hazard of serious flooding and the pandemic. There have been 70 countries with flood events occurring after detection of the country's first COVID-19 case and hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated. The main objective of this article is to assess challenges that arise from complex intersections between the threat multipliers and to provide guidance on how to address them effectively. We consider the limitations of our knowledge including "unknown unknowns." During emergency evacuation, practicing social distancing can be very difficult. However, people are going to take action to respond to rising waters, even if it means breaking quarantine. This is an emergency manager's nightmare scenario: two potentially serious emergencies happening at once. During this unprecedented year (2020), we are experiencing one of the most challenging flood seasons we have seen in a while. Practical examples of issues and guides for managing floods and COVID-19 are presented. We feel that a new approach is needed in dealing with multiple hazards. Our main messages are: a resilience approach is needed whether in response to floods or a pandemic; preparation is vital, in addition to defense; the responsible actors must be prepared with actions plans and command structure, while the general population must be involved in the discussions so that they are aware of the risk and the reasons for the actions they must take. This article is categorized under:Engineering Water > Methods.