Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change

Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security

Climate change is recognised to lead to spatial shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by altering their environmental optima. Fish supply along the Northwest African coast is significant at both socio-economic and cultural levels. Evaluating the impacts of climatic change on small pelagic fish is a challenge and of serious concern in the context of shared stock management. Evaluating the impact of climate change on the distribution of small pelagic fish, a trend analysis was conducted using data from 2363 trawl samplings and 170,000 km of acoustics sea surveys. Strong warming is reported across the Southern Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), extending from Morocco to Senegal. Over 34 years, several trends emerged, with the southern CCLME experiencing increases in both wind speed and upwelling intensity, particularly where the coastal upwelling was already the strongest. Despite upwelling-induced cooling mechanisms, sea surface temperature (SST) increased in most areas, indicating the complex interplay of climatic-related stressors in shaping the marine ecosystem. Concomitant northward shifts in the distribution of small pelagic species were attributed to long-term warming trends in SST and a decrease in marine productivity in the south. The abundance of Sardinella aurita, the most abundant species along the coast, has increased in the subtropics and fallen in the intertropical region. Spatial shifts in biomass were observed for other exploited small pelagic species, similar to those recorded for surface isotherms. An intensification in upwelling intensity within the northern and central regions of the system is documented without a change in marine primary productivity. In contrast, upwelling intensity is stable in the southern region, while there is a decline in primary productivity. These environmental differences affected several small pelagic species across national boundaries. This adds a new threat to these recently overexploited fish stocks, making sustainable management more difficult. Such changes must motivate common regional policy considerations for food security and sovereignty in all West African countries sharing the same stocks.

Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

Early life stage mechanisms of an active fish species to cope with ocean warming and hypoxia as interacting stressors

Ocean's characteristics are rapidly changing, modifying environmental suitability for early life stages of fish. We assessed whether the chronic effects of warming (24 °C) and hypoxia (<2-2.5 mg L-1) will be amplified by the combination of these stressors on mortality, growth, behaviour, metabolism and oxidative stress of early stages of the white seabream Diplodus sargus. Combined warming and hypoxia synergistically increased larval mortality by >51%. Warming induced faster growth in length and slower gains in weight when compared to other treatments. Boldness and exploration were not directly affected, but swimming activity increased under all test treatments. Under the combination of warming and hypoxia, routine metabolic rate (RMR) significantly decreases when compared to other treatments and shows a negative thermal dependence. Superoxide dismutase and catalase activities increased under warming and were maintained similar to control levels under hypoxia or under combined stressors. Under hypoxia, the enzymatic activities were not enough to prevent oxidative damages as lipid peroxidation and DNA damage increased above control levels. Hypoxia reduced electron transport system activity (cellular respiration) and isocitrate dehydrogenase activity (aerobic metabolism) below control levels. However, lactate dehydrogenase activity (anaerobic metabolism) did not differ among treatments. A Redundancy Analysis showed that ∼99% of the variability in mortality, growth, behaviour and RMR among treatments can be explained by molecular responses. Mortality and growth are highly influenced by oxidative stress and energy metabolism, exhibiting a positive relationship with reactive oxygen species and a negative relationship with aerobic metabolism, regardless of treatment. Under hypoxic condition, RMR, boldness and swimming activity have a positive relationship with anaerobic metabolism regardless of temperature. Thus, seabreams may use anaerobic reliance to counterbalance the effects of the stressors on RMR, activity and growth. The outcomes suggests that early life stages of white seabream overcame the single and combined effects of hypoxia and warming.

What drives the recruitment of European sardine in Atlanto-Iberian waters (SW Europe)? Insights from a 22-year analysis

The European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) is the most abundant and socio-economically important small pelagic fish species in Western Iberia Upwelling Ecosystem. As a result of a long series of low recruitments, sardine biomass off Western Iberia has greatly reduced since the 2000s. Recruitment of small pelagic fish is mainly dependent on environmental factors. In order to identify the key drivers of sardine recruitment, it is essential to understand its temporal and spatial variability. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive suite of atmospheric, oceanographic, and biological variables spanning 1998-2020 (22 years) were extracted from satellite datasets. These were then related to in situ recruitment estimates obtained from yearly spring acoustic surveys carried out along two different hotspots of sardine recruitment of the southern Iberian sardine stock (NW Portugal and Gulf of Cadiz). Sardine recruitment in Atlanto-Iberian waters appears to be driven by distinct combinations of environmental factors, although sea surface temperature was identified as the main driver in both regions. Physical conditions that favour larval feeding and retention, such as shallower mixed layers and onshore transport, were also seen to play a vital role in modulating sardine recruitment. Furthermore, high sardine recruitment in NW Iberia was associated with optimal conditions in the winter (January-February). In contrast, recruitment strength of sardine off the Gulf of Cadiz were associated with the optimal conditions during late autumn and spring. The results from this work provide valuable insights to further understand the dynamics of sardine off Iberia, with potential to contribute to the sustainable management of sardine stocks in Atlanto-Iberian waters, particularly under climate change.

Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas

Fisheries and aquaculture are facing many challenges worldwide, especially adaptation to climate change. Investigating future distributional changes of largely harvested species has become an extensive research topic, aiming at providing realistic ecological scenarios on which to build management measures, to help fisheries and aquaculture adapt to future climate-driven changes. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to estimate the contemporary and future distributional range of eight demersal fish species of high economic value in the Mediterranean Sea. We identify a cardinal influence of (i) temperature on fish species distributions, all being shaped by yearly mean and seasonality in sea bottom temperature, and (ii) the primary production. By assessing the effects of changes in future climate conditions under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios over three periods of the twenty-first century, we project a contraction of the distributional range of the eight species in the Mediterranean Sea, with a general biogeographical displacement towards the North European coasts. This will help anticipating changes in future catch potential in a warmer world, which is expected to have substantial economic consequences for Mediterranean fisheries.