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Guo Y, Zhang S, Ren L, Tian X, Tang S, Xian Y, Wu X, Zhang Z. Prediction of Chinese suitable habitats of Panax notoginseng under climate change based on MaxEnt and chemometric methods. Sci Rep 2024; 14:16434. [PMID: 39014061 PMCID: PMC11252130 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-67178-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 07/09/2024] [Indexed: 07/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Notoginseng saponin R1; ginsenosides Rg1, Re, Rb1, and Rd; the sum of the five saponins; and underground-part fresh weight (UPFW) of single plants were used as quality evaluation indices for Panax notoginseng (Burk.) F. H. Chen (P. notoginseng). Comprehensive evaluation of P. notoginseng samples from 30 production areas was performed using that MaxEnt model. Spatial pattern changes in suitable P. notoginseng habitats were predicted for current and future periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) using SSP126 and SSP585 models. The results revealed that temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were important environmental variables. Suitable habitats were located mainly in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan Provinces. The distribution core of P. notoginseng is predicted to shift southeast in the future. The saponin content decreased from the southeast to the northwest of Yunnan Province, which was contrary to the UPFW trend. This study provides the necessary information for the protection and sustainable utilization of P. notoginseng resources, and a theoretical reference for its application in the quality evaluation of Chinese medicinal products.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yixin Guo
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Shiyan Zhang
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Linghui Ren
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Xin Tian
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Shicheng Tang
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Yisha Xian
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Xinjia Wu
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Zilong Zhang
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China.
- Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resource to Economy, Chongqing, 401147, China.
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Gao H, Wei X, Peng Y, Zhuo Z. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Future Distribution of Paederus fuscipes Curtis, 1826, in China Based on the MaxEnt Model. INSECTS 2024; 15:437. [PMID: 38921152 PMCID: PMC11203407 DOI: 10.3390/insects15060437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2024] [Revised: 06/06/2024] [Accepted: 06/06/2024] [Indexed: 06/27/2024]
Abstract
Paederus fuscipes Curtis, 1826, belongs to the Coleoptera order, Staphylinidae family, and Paederus genus (Fabricius, 1775). It has a wide distribution and strong invasive and environmental adaptation capabilities. As a predatory natural enemy of agricultural and forestry pests, understanding its suitable habitat is crucial for the control of other pests. This study, for the first time, uses the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, combining known distribution information of P. fuscipes and climate environmental factors to predict the current and future suitable habitat distribution of this insect. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. fuscipes have been identified as mean diurnal range (mean of monthly (max temp-min temp)) (bio2), isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (*100) (bio3), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), temperature annual range (bio5-bio6) (bio7), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of the wettest month (bio13), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) (bio15). The highly suitable areas for P. fuscipes in China are mainly distributed in the hilly regions of Shandong, the North China Plain, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, with a total suitable area of 118.96 × 104 km2, accounting for 12.35% of China's total area. According to future climate change scenarios, it is predicted that the area of highly and lowly suitable regions will significantly decrease, while moderately suitable regions will increase (except for the 2090s, SSP2-4.5 scenario). These research findings provide important theoretical support for pest control and ecological conservation applications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Gao
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China; (H.G.); (X.W.); (Y.P.)
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
| | - Xinju Wei
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China; (H.G.); (X.W.); (Y.P.)
| | - Yaqin Peng
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China; (H.G.); (X.W.); (Y.P.)
| | - Zhihang Zhuo
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China; (H.G.); (X.W.); (Y.P.)
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Wang E, Lu Z, Rohani ER, Ou J, Tong X, Han R. Current and future distribution of Forsythia suspensa in China under climate change adopting the MaxEnt model. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2024; 15:1394799. [PMID: 38887460 PMCID: PMC11180877 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1394799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2024] [Accepted: 05/20/2024] [Indexed: 06/20/2024]
Abstract
This study evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Forsythia suspensa, a valuable traditional Chinese medicinal plant, using the MaxEnt model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS). By analyzing occurrence data from various databases and environmental variables including climate and soil factors, we forecasted the present and future (2050s and 2070s) habitat suitability of F. suspensa under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Results indicated that the suitable habitats for F. suspensa were primarily located in North, East, Central, Northwest, and Southwest China, with a significant potential expansion of suitable habitats anticipated by the 2070s, particularly under the high emission scenario. The study identified precipitation and temperature as the primary environmental drivers impacting the distribution of F. suspensa. Furthermore, a northward shift in the centroid of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios suggested a potential migration response to global warming. This work provides crucial insights into the future conservation and cultivation strategies for F. suspensa amidst changing climatic conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- En Wang
- School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
| | - Zongran Lu
- School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
| | | | - Jinmei Ou
- School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
| | - Xiaohui Tong
- School of Life Sciences, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
| | - Rongchun Han
- School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Chinese Medicine, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
- Joint Research Center for Chinese Herbal Medicine of Anhui of IHM, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
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Qian Q, Xu D, Liao W, Zhuo Z. Predicting the current and future suitable distribution range of Trilocha varians (Walker, 1855) (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae) in China. BULLETIN OF ENTOMOLOGICAL RESEARCH 2024:1-10. [PMID: 38699862 DOI: 10.1017/s0007485324000117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2024]
Abstract
Trilocha varians is one of the major pests of Ficus spp. Based on 19 bioclimatic variables provided by the Worldclim, our study analysed the suitable distribution areas of T. varians under current and future climate changes (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for two periods (the 2050s and 2090s) using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) model. Key environmental variables affecting the geographic distribution of T. varians were also identified, and the changes in the area of suitable range under current and future climate changes were compared. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of T. varians were temperature and precipitation, comprising annual mean temperature (bio1), temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (bio4), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of driest quarter (bio17). Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution area of T. varians is within the range of 92°13'E-122°08'E, 18°17'N-31°55'N. The current high, medium, and low suitable areas for T. varians predicted by the MaxEnt model are 14.00 × 104, 21.50 × 104, and 71.95 × 104 km2, of which the high suitable areas are mainly distributed in southern Guangdong, southwestern Guangxi, western Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Hainan. Under different future climatic conditions, some of the high, medium, and low suitability zones for T. varians increased and some decreased, but the mass centre did not migrate significantly. The Pearl River Basin is predicted to remain the main distribution area of T. varians.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qianqian Qian
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
| | - Danping Xu
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
| | - Wenkai Liao
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
| | - Zhihang Zhuo
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
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Han X, Chen J, Wu L, Zhang G, Fan X, Yan T, Zhu L, Guan Y, Zhou L, Hou T, Xue X, Li X, Wang M, Xing H, Xiong X, Wang Z. Species distribution modeling combined with environmental DNA analysis to explore distribution of invasive alien mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) in China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2024; 31:25978-25990. [PMID: 38492140 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-024-32935-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2023] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 03/18/2024]
Abstract
China has become one of the most serious countries suffering from biological invasions in the world. In the context of global climate change, invasive alien species (IAS) are likely to invade a wider area, posing greater ecological and economic threats in China. Western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis), which is known as one of the 100 most invasive alien species, has distributed widely in southern China and is gradually spreading to the north, causing serious ecological damage and economic losses. However, its distribution in China is still unclear. Hence, there is an urgent need for a more convenient way to detect and monitor the distribution of G. affinis to put forward specific management. Therefore, we detected the distribution of G. affinis in China under current and future climate change by combing Maxent modeling prediction and eDNA verification, which is a more time-saving and reliable method to estimate the distribution of species. The Maxent modeling showed that G. affinis has a broad habitat suitability in China (especially in southern China) and would continue to spread in the future with ongoing climate change. However, eDNA monitoring showed that occurrences can already be detected in regions that Maxent still categorized as unsuitable. Besides temperature, precipitation and human influence were the most important environmental factors affecting the distribution of G. affinis in China. In addition, by environmental DNA analysis, we verified the presence of G. affinis predicted by Maxent in the Qinling Mountains where the presence of G. affinis had not been previously recorded.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xu Han
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jinxiao Chen
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Lang Wu
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Guo Zhang
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaoteng Fan
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Tao Yan
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Long Zhu
- College of Marine Science and Fisheries, Jiangsu Ocean University, Lianyungang, 222005, Jiangsu, China
| | - Yongjing Guan
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Linjun Zhou
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Tingting Hou
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xue Xue
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiangju Li
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Mingrong Wang
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Haoran Xing
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaofan Xiong
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Zaizhao Wang
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China.
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Ran WW, Luo GM, Zhao YQ, Li C, Dietrich CH, Song YH. Climate change may drive the distribution of tribe Zyginelline pests in China and the Indo-China Peninsula to shift towards higher latitude river-mountain systems. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2024; 80:613-626. [PMID: 37740940 DOI: 10.1002/ps.7788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/24/2023] [Indexed: 09/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tribe Zyginelline leafhoppers can transmit plant viruses and are important pests that affect agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry, causing serious economic losses. The potential distribution patterns of Zyginellini will change under climate change. Therefore, the best-performing random forest and maximum entropy models among 12 commonly used ecological niche models, alongside an ensemble model, were selected to predict the changes in habitat suitability distribution of Zyginellini under current and future climate scenarios [represented by two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP126 and SSP585, for three periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s)] in China and the Indo-China Peninsula for the first time. RESULTS The results revealed that the distribution of Zyginellini was mainly dominated by minimum temperature of coldest month. Under current and future climate scenarios, Zyginellini was mostly distributed southeast of the 400 mm equivalent precipitation line in China, and Vietnam. Under the future SSP126 scenario, the alert areas will mainly be concentrated in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hebei in China, alongside Myanmar and Thailand in the Indo-China Peninsula. Meanwhile, in the SSP585 scenario, the alert areas in China will increase, whereas there will be little change in the Indo-China Peninsula. Interestingly, from the current to the future, the cores of Zyginelline distribution occurred around rivers and mountains, and shifted from Guizhou along the Yuanjiang River system to higher latitudes in Hunan. CONCLUSION Zyginellini prefers higher latitude river-mountain systems under climate change. Our results will contribute to effective pest control strategies and biogeographical research for Zyginellini alongside other Cicadellidae insects. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei-Wei Ran
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University/State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang, China
- Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory for Rare Animal and Economic Insect of the Mountainous Region, Guiyang University, Guiyang, China
| | - Gui-Mei Luo
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University/State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang, China
- Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory for Rare Animal and Economic Insect of the Mountainous Region, Guiyang University, Guiyang, China
| | - Yuan-Qi Zhao
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University/State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang, China
| | - Can Li
- Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory for Rare Animal and Economic Insect of the Mountainous Region, Guiyang University, Guiyang, China
| | - Christopher H Dietrich
- Illinois Natural History Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA
| | - Yue-Hua Song
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University/State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang, China
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Fu C, Wang X, Huang T, Wang R. Future habitat changes of Bactrocera minax Enderlein along the Yangtze River Basin using the optimal MaxEnt model. PeerJ 2023; 11:e16459. [PMID: 38025688 PMCID: PMC10668831 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/23/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Bactrocera minax (Enderlein, 1920) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a destructive citrus pest. It is mainly distributed throughout Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hubei, Hunan, and Guangxi in China and is considered to be a second-class pest that is prohibited from entering that country. Climate change, new farming techniques, and increased international trade has caused the habitable area of this pest to gradually expand. Understanding the suitable habitats of B. minax under future climate scenarios may be crucial to reveal the expansion pattern of the insect and develop corresponding prevention strategies in China. Methods Using on the current 199 distribution points and 11 environmental variables for B. minax, we chose the optimal MaxEnt model to screen the dominant factors that affect the distribution of B. minax and to predict the potential future distribution of B. minax in China under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). Results The current habitat of B. minax is located at 24.1-34.6°N and 101.1-122.9°E, which encompasses the provinces of Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Yunnan (21.64 × 104 km2). Under future climate scenarios, the potential suitable habitat for B. minax may expand significantly toward the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The land coverage of highly suitable habitats may increase from 21.64 × 104 km2 to 26.35 × 104 × 104 km2 (2050s, SSP5-8.5) ~ 33.51 × 104 km2 (2090s, SSP5-8.5). This expansion area accounts for 29% (2050s, SSP1-2.6) to 34.83% (2090s, SSP1-2.6) of the current habitat. The center of the suitable habitat was predicted to expand towards the northeast, and the scenario with a stronger radiative force corresponded to a more marked movement of the center toward higher latitudes. A jackknife test showed that the dominant variables affecting the distribution of B. minax were the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), the annual precipitation (bio12), the mean diurnal range (bio2), the temperature annual range (bio7), and the altitude (alt). Discussion Currently, it is possible for B. minax to expand its damaging presence. Regions with appropriate climate conditions and distribution of host plants may become potential habitats for the insects, and local authorities should strengthen their detection and prevention strategies. Climate changes in the future may promote the survival and expansion of B. minax species in China, which is represented by the significant increase of suitable habitats toward regions of high altitudes and latitudes across all directions but with some shrinkage in the east and west sides.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chun Fu
- Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province for Bamboo Pests Control and Resource Development, Leshan Normal University, Leshan, China
| | - Xian Wang
- Hejiang Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Hejiang, China
| | - Tingting Huang
- Chengdu Agricultural Technology Extension Station, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Rulin Wang
- Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu, China
- Water-Saving Agriculture in Southern Hill Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
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Herkül K, Torn K, Möller-Raid T, Martin G. Distribution and co-occurrence patterns of charophytes and angiosperms in the northern Baltic Sea. Sci Rep 2023; 13:20096. [PMID: 37973793 PMCID: PMC10654418 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-47176-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
The distribution data of 11 soft substrate charophyte and angiosperm species were analyzed. Our study aimed to elucidate the co-occurrence patterns among these sympatric macrophyte species and quantify their distribution areas. The central hypothesis of this study proposed that the observed co-occurrence patterns among the studied species deviate from what would be expected by random chance. Macrophyte occurrence data was derived from an extensive field sampling database. Environmental variables available as georeferenced raster layers including topographical, hydrodynamic, geological, physical, chemical, and biological variables were used as predictor variables in the random forest models to predict the spatial distribution of the species. Permutation tests revealed statistically significant deviations from random co-occurrence patterns. The analysis demonstrated that species tended to co-occur more frequently within their taxonomic groups (i.e., within charophytes and within angiosperms) than between these groups. The most extensive distribution overlap was observed between Chara aspera Willd. and Chara canescens Loisel., while Zostera marina L. exhibited the least overlap with the other species. The mean number of co-occurring species was the highest in Chara baltica (Hartman) Bruzelius while Z. marina had the largest share of single-species occurrences. Based on the distribution models, Stuckenia pectinata (L.) Börner had the largest distribution area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristjan Herkül
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618, Tallinn, Estonia.
| | - Kaire Torn
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Tiia Möller-Raid
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Georg Martin
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618, Tallinn, Estonia
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Luo W, Han S, Yu T, Wang P, Ma Y, Wan M, Liu J, Li Z, Tao J. Assessing the suitability and dynamics of three medicinal Sambucus species in China under current and future climate scenarios. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2023; 14:1194444. [PMID: 37929169 PMCID: PMC10620941 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1194444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 10/02/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
Climate change exerts profound influences on the ecological environments on a global scale, leading to habitat destruction and altering distribution patterns for numerous plant species. Traditional Chinese medicinal plants, such as those belonging to the Sambucus genus, have been extensively utilized for several centuries to treat fractures, rheumatism, and inflammation. However, our understanding of their geographic distribution and climatic adaptation within China still needs to be improved. In this study, we screened the optimal predictive model (random forest model) to predict the potential suitable distribution of three Sambucus species (Sambucus adnata, Sambucus javanica, and Sambucus williamsii) across China under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, we identified key climate factors that influence their potential distributions. Our findings revealed that S. adnata and S. javanica are predominantly shaped by temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range, respectively, whereas S. williamsii is significantly affected by the precipitation of the wettest month. Currently, S. williamsii is primarily distributed in north and central south China (covering 9.57 × 105 km2), S. javanica is prevalent in the south and east regions (covering 6.41×105 km2), and S. adnata predominantly thrives in the southwest China (covering 1.99×105 km2). Under future climate change scenarios, it is anticipated that S. adnata may migrate to higher latitudes while S. javanica may shift to lower latitudes. However, potentially suitable areas for S. williamsii may contract under certain scenarios for the years 2050 and 2090, with an expansion trend under the SSP585 scenario for the year 2090. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic variables in influencing the potential geographic distribution of Sambucus species. These findings provide valuable theoretical insights for the preservation, cultivation, and utilization of Sambucus medicinal plant resources in the context of ongoing climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weixue Luo
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Shunxin Han
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Ting Yu
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Peng Wang
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yuxuan Ma
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Maji Wan
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Jinchun Liu
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Zongfeng Li
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Jianping Tao
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
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Talbot B, Kulkarni MA, Rioux-Rousseau M, Siebels K, Kotchi SO, Ogden NH, Ludwig A. Ecological Niche and Positive Clusters of Two West Nile Virus Vectors in Ontario, Canada. ECOHEALTH 2023; 20:249-262. [PMID: 37985537 PMCID: PMC10757704 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-023-01653-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2022] [Revised: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 07/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen associated with uncommon but severe neurological complications in humans, especially among the elderly and immune-compromised. In Northeastern North America, the Culex pipiens/restuans complex and Aedes vexans are the two principal vector mosquito species/species groups of WNV. Using a 10-year surveillance dataset of WNV vector captures at 118 sites across an area of 40,000 km2 in Eastern Ontario, Canada, the ecological niches of Cx. pipiens/restuans and Aedes vexans were modeled by random forest analysis. Spatiotemporal clusters of WNV-positive mosquito pools were identified using Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic. The study region encompasses land cover types and climate representative of highly populated Southeastern Canada. We found highest vector habitat suitability in the eastern half of the study area, where temperatures are generally warmer (variable importance > 0.40) and residential and agricultural cropland cover is more prominent (variable importance > 0.25). We found spatiotemporal clusters of high WNV infection rates around the city of Ottawa in both mosquito vector species. These results support the previous literature in the same region and elsewhere suggesting areas surrounding highly populated areas are also high-risk areas for vector-borne zoonoses such as the WNV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benoit Talbot
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada.
| | - Manisha A Kulkarni
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Maxime Rioux-Rousseau
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - Kevin Siebels
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - Serge Olivier Kotchi
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
- Signal, Image Processing and Multimedia (STIM), Research Unit and Digital Expertise (UREN), Université Virtuelle de Côte d'Ivoire, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
| | - Nicholas H Ogden
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - Antoinette Ludwig
- Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health (GREZOSP), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
- Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint- Hyacinthe, QC, and Guelph, ON, Canada
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Zheng Y, Yuan C, Matsushita N, Lian C, Geng Q. Analysis of the distribution pattern of the ectomycorrhizal fungus Cenococcum geophilum under climate change using the optimized MaxEnt model. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10565. [PMID: 37753310 PMCID: PMC10518754 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2023] [Revised: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 09/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Cenococcum geophilum (C. geophilum) is a widely distributed ectomycorrhizal fungus that plays a crucial role in forest ecosystems worldwide. However, the specific ecological factors influencing its global distribution and how climate change will affect its range are still relatively unknown. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model optimized with the kuenm package to simulate changes in the distribution pattern of C. geophilum from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future based on 164 global distribution records and 17 environmental variables and investigated the key environmental factors influencing its distribution. We employed the optimal parameter combination of RM = 4 and FC = QPH, resulting in a highly accurate predictive model. Our study clearly shows that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual precipitation are the key environmental factors influencing the suitable habitats of C. geophilum. Currently, appropriate habitats of C. geophilum are mainly distributed in eastern Asia, west-central Europe, the western seaboard and eastern regions of North America, and southeastern Australia, covering a total area of approximately 36,578,300 km2 globally. During the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene, C. geophilum had a much smaller distribution area, being mainly concentrated in the Qinling-Huaihe Line region of China and eastern Peninsular Malaysia. As global warming continues, the future suitable habitat for C. geophilum is projected to shift northward, leading to an expected expansion of the suitable area from 9.21% to 21.02%. This study provides a theoretical foundation for global conservation efforts and biogeographic understanding of C. geophilum, offering new insights into its distribution patterns and evolutionary trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yexu Zheng
- College of ForestryShandong Agricultural UniversityTai'anChina
- College of Grassland Science and TechnologyChina Agricultural UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Chao Yuan
- College of ForestryFujian Agriculture and Forestry UniversityFuzhouChina
| | - Norihisa Matsushita
- Graduate School of Agricultural and Life SciencesThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Chunlan Lian
- Asian Research Center for Bioresource and Environmental Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life SciencesThe University of TokyoNishitokyo‐shiTokyoJapan
| | - Qifang Geng
- College of ForestryShandong Agricultural UniversityTai'anChina
- Asian Research Center for Bioresource and Environmental Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life SciencesThe University of TokyoNishitokyo‐shiTokyoJapan
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Yan C, Hao H, Wang Z, Sha S, Zhang Y, Wang Q, Kang Z, Huang L, Wang L, Feng H. Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution of Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis in the World and China under Climate Change. J Fungi (Basel) 2023; 9:739. [PMID: 37504728 PMCID: PMC10381404 DOI: 10.3390/jof9070739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2023] [Revised: 07/04/2023] [Accepted: 07/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Years of outbreaks of woody canker (Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis) in the United States, Iran, and China have resulted in massive economic losses to biological forests and fruit trees. However, only limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat requirements have not been well evaluated due to a lack of research. In recent years, scientists have utilized the MaxEnt model to estimate the effect of global temperature and specific environmental conditions on species distribution. Using occurrence and high resolution ecological data, we predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of C. pullmanensis under twelve climate change scenarios by applying the MaxEnt model. We identified climatic factors, geography, soil, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. Then, we measured the suitable habitat area, the ratio of change in the area of suitable habitat, the expansion and shrinkage of maps under climate change, the direction and distance of range changes from the present to the end of the twenty-first century, and the effect of environmental variables. C. pullmanensis is mostly widespread in high-suitability regions in northwestern China, the majority of Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey, northern Chile, southwestern Argentina, and the west coast of California in the United States. Under future climatic conditions, climate changes of varied intensities favored the expansion of suitable habitats for C. pullmanensis in China. However, appropriate land areas are diminishing globally. The trend in migration is toward latitudes and elevations that are higher. The estimated area of possible suitability shifted eastward in China. The results of the present study are valuable not only for countries such as Morocco, Spain, Chile, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc., where the infection has not yet fully spread or been established, but also for nations where the species has been discovered. Authorities should take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to restrict the spread of C. pullmanensis. Countries with highly appropriate locations should increase their surveillance, risk assessment, and response capabilities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chengcai Yan
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Haiting Hao
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Zhe Wang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Shuaishuai Sha
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Yiwen Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Qingpeng Wang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
| | - Zhensheng Kang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- State Key Laboratory of Crop Stress Biology for Arid Areas, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
- Yangling Seed Industry Innovation Center, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
| | - Lili Huang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- State Key Laboratory of Crop Stress Biology for Arid Areas, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
- Yangling Seed Industry Innovation Center, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
| | - Lan Wang
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
| | - Hongzu Feng
- Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China
- The National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of High Efficiency and Superior-Quality Cultivation and Fruit Deep Processing Technology of Characteristic Fruit Trees in Southern Xinjiang, Alar 843300, China
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Wang W, Zhao F, Wang Y, Huang X, Ye J. Seasonal differences in the spatial patterns of wildfire drivers and susceptibility in the southwest mountains of China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 869:161782. [PMID: 36702273 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161782] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires directly affect global ecosystem stability and severely threaten human life. The mountainous areas of Southwest China experience frequent wildfires. Mapping the susceptibility patterns and analyzing the drivers of wildfires are crucial for effective wildfire management, especially considering that the inclusion of seasonal dimensions will produce more dynamic results. Using Yunnan Province of China as a case study area, a method was attempted to distinguish dependable wildfires by season, while possible wildfire drivers were obtained and refined within seasons. The patterns of wildfire susceptibility in different seasons were modeled based on the Maxent and random forest models. Then, the spatial relationships between wildfire and potential drivers were analyzed integrating with GeoDetector to evaluate the variable importance of drivers and the marginal effect of drivers. The results showed that the two models effectively depicted each season's wildfire susceptibility. The susceptible wildfire areas in spring and winter are located throughout Yunnan Province, with anthropogenic factors being the most significant drivers. During the summer and autumn, wildfire risk areas are relatively concentrated, showing a trend of dominant drought-driven and humid conditions. The differences in wildfire drivers across seasons reflect the lagged effect of climate factors on wildfires, leading to significant discrepancies in the marginal effects of how seasonal drivers affect wildfires. The findings improve our understanding of the effects of the interseasonal variability of environmental variables on wildfires and promote the development of specific seasonal wildfire management strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenquan Wang
- School of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
| | - Fengjun Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
| | - Yanxia Wang
- School of Geography and Ecotourism, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
| | - Xiaoyuan Huang
- School of Geography and Ecotourism, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
| | - Jiangxia Ye
- School of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China.
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Hou J, Xiang J, Li D, Liu X. Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution Areas of Quasipaa spinosa in China Based on MaxEnt Optimization Model. BIOLOGY 2023; 12:biology12030366. [PMID: 36979059 PMCID: PMC10045758 DOI: 10.3390/biology12030366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2023] [Revised: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023]
Abstract
Quasipaa spinosa is a large cold-water frog unique to China, with great ecological and economic value. In recent years, due to the impact of human activities on the climate, its habitat has been destroyed, resulting in a sharp decline in natural population resources. Based on the existing distribution records of Q. spinosa, this study uses the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGis 10.2 software to screen out 10 factors such as climate and altitude to predict its future potential distribution area because of climate change. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQHP and RM = 3, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC values are greater than 0.95. The precipitation of the driest month (bio14), temperature seasonality (bio4), elevation (ele), isothermality (bio3), and the minimum temperature of coldest month (bio6) were the main environmental factors affecting the potential range of the Q. spinosa. At present, high-suitability areas are mainly in the Hunan, Fujian, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Anhui, and Sichuan provinces of China. In the future, the potential distribution area of Q. spinosa may gradually extend to the northwest and north. The low-concentration emissions scenario in the future can increase the area of suitable habitat for Q. spinosa and slow down the reduction in the amount of high-suitability areas to a certain extent. In conclusion, the habitat of Q. spinosa is mainly distributed in southern China. Because of global climate change, the high-altitude mountainous areas in southern China with abundant water resources may be the main potential habitat area of Q. spinosa. Predicting the changes in the distribution patterns of Q. spinosa can better help us understand the biogeography of Q. spinosa and develop conservation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change.
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Lan Z, Huiliang L, Hongxiang Z, Yanfeng C, Lingwei Z, Kudusi K, Taxmamat D, Yuanming Z. Potential distribution of three types of ephemeral plants under climate changes. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2022; 13:1035684. [PMID: 36507407 PMCID: PMC9728545 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2022.1035684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2022] [Accepted: 10/31/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Arid and semi-arid regions account for about 40% of the world's land surface area, and are the most sensitive areas to climate change, leading to a dramatic expansion of arid regions in recent decades. Ephemeral plants are crucial herbs in this area and are very sensitive to climate change, but it is still unclear which factors can determine the distribution of ephemeral plants and how the distribution of ephemeral plants responds to future climate change across the globe. AIMS Understanding the impact of climate change on ephemeral plant distribution is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation. METHODS This study explored the potential distribution of three types of ephemeral plants in arid and semi-arid regions (cold desert, hot desert, and deciduous forest) on a global scale using the MaxEnt software. We used species global occurrence data and 30 environmental factors in scientific collections. RESULTS Our results showed that (1) the average value of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of each species was higher than 0.95, indicating that the MaxEnt model's simulation accuracy for each species was good; (2) distributions of cold desert and deciduous forest species were mainly determined by soil pH and annual mean temperature; the key factor that determines the distribution of hot desert species was precipitation of the driest month; and (3) the potential distribution of ephemeral plants in the cold desert was increased under one-third of climate scenarios; in the hot desert, the potential suitable distribution for Anastatica hierochuntica was decreased in more than half of the climate scenarios, but Trigonella arabica was increased in more than half of the climate scenarios. In deciduous forests, the ephemeral plant Crocus alatavicus decreased in nearly nine-tenths of climate scenarios, and Gagea filiformis was increased in 75% of climate scenarios. CONCLUSIONS The potential suitable distributions of ephemeral plants in the different ecosystems were closely related to their specific adaptation strategies. These results contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the potential distribution pattern of some ephemeral plants in arid and semi-arid ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhang Lan
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Liu Huiliang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China
- Yili Botanical Garden, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Xinyuan, China
| | - Zhang Hongxiang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China
| | - Chen Yanfeng
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China
- School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, China
| | - Zhang Lingwei
- College of Life Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Kawushaer Kudusi
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China
| | - Dilxadam Taxmamat
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China
| | - Zhang Yuanming
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China
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Zhang R, Zhang N, Liu Y, Liu T, Sun J, Ling F, Wang Z. Factors associated with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome based maximum entropy model in Zhejiang Province, China. Front Med (Lausanne) 2022; 9:967554. [PMID: 36275790 PMCID: PMC9579348 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.967554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a serious public health problem in China. The geographic distribution has went throughout China, among which Zhejiang Province is an important epidemic area. Since 1963, more than 110,000 cases have been reported. Methods We collected the meteorological factors and socioeconomic indicators of Zhejiang Province, and constructed the HFRS ecological niche model of Zhejiang Province based on the algorithm of maximum entropy. Results Model AUC from 2009 to 2018, is 0.806–0.901. The high incidence of epidemics in Zhejiang Province is mainly concentrated in the eastern, western and central regions of Zhejiang Province. The contribution of digital elevation model ranged from 2009 to 2018 from 4.22 to 26.0%. The contribution of average temperature ranges from 6.26 to 19.65%, Gross Domestic Product contribution from 7.53 to 21.25%, and average land surface temperature contribution with the highest being 16.73% in 2011. In addition, the average contribution of DMSP/OLS, 20-8 precipitation and 8-20 precipitation were all in the range of 9%. All-day precipitation increases with the increase of rainfall, and the effect curve peaks at 1,250 mm, then decreases rapidly, and a small peak appears again at 1,500 mm. Average temperature response curve shows an inverted v-shape, where the incidence peaks at 17.8°C. The response curve of HFRS for GDP and DMSP/OLS shows a positive correlation. Conclusion The incidence of HFRS in Zhejiang Province peaked in areas where the average temperature was 17.8°C, which reminds that in the areas where temperature is suitable, personal protection should be taken when going out as to avoid contact with rodents. The impact of GDP and DMSP/OLS on HFRS is positively correlated. Most cities have good medical conditions, but we should consider whether there are under-diagnosed cases in economically underdeveloped areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rong Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Vaccine, Prevention and Control of Infectious Disease of Zhejiang Province, Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Ning Zhang
- Puyan Street Community Health Service Center of Binjiang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Ying Liu
- Key Laboratory of Vaccine, Prevention and Control of Infectious Disease of Zhejiang Province, Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Tianxiao Liu
- School of Science and Technology, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Jimin Sun
- Key Laboratory of Vaccine, Prevention and Control of Infectious Disease of Zhejiang Province, Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China,*Correspondence: Jimin Sun,
| | - Feng Ling
- Key Laboratory of Vaccine, Prevention and Control of Infectious Disease of Zhejiang Province, Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China,Feng Ling,
| | - Zhen Wang
- Key Laboratory of Vaccine, Prevention and Control of Infectious Disease of Zhejiang Province, Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China,Zhen Wang,
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