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Qian J, Wu Y, Zhu C, Chen Q, Chu H, Liu L, Wang C, Luo Y, Yue N, Li W, Yang X, Yi J, Ye F, He J, Qi Y, Lu F, Wang C, Tan W. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:538. [PMID: 38383355 PMCID: PMC10880311 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17233-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2023] [Accepted: 11/15/2023] [Indexed: 02/23/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Large-scale outbreaks of scrub typhus combined with its emergence in new areas as a vector-borne rickettsiosis highlight the ongoing neglect of this disease. This study aims to explore the long-term changes and regional leading factors of scrub typhus in China, with the goal of providing valuable insights for disease prevention and control. METHODS This study utilized a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and scrub typhus in southern and northern China from 2006 to 2018. Additionally, a GeoDetector model was employed to assess the predominant influences of geographical and socioeconomic factors in both regions. RESULTS Scrub typhus exhibits a seasonal pattern, typically occurring during the summer and autumn months (June to November), with a peak in October. Geographically, the high-risk regions, or hot spots, are concentrated in the south, while the low-risk regions, or cold spots, are located in the north. Moreover, the distribution of scrub typhus is influenced by environment and socio-economic factors. In the north and south, the dominant factors are the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. An increase in NDVI per interquartile range (IQR) leads to a 7.580% decrease in scrub typhus risk in northern China, and a 19.180% increase in the southern. Similarly, of 1 IQR increase in temperature reduces the risk of scrub typhus by 10.720% in the north but increases it by 15.800% in the south. In terms of geographical and socio-economic factors, illiteracy rate and altitude are the key determinants in the respective areas, with q-values of 0.844 and 0.882. CONCLUSIONS These results indicated that appropriate climate, environment, and social conditions would increase the risk of scrub typhus. This study provided helpful suggestions and a basis for reasonably allocating resources and controlling the occurrence of scrub typhus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaojiao Qian
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Yifan Wu
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Changqiang Zhu
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Qiong Chen
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Hongliang Chu
- Center for Disease Prevention and Control of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Licheng Liu
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Chongcai Wang
- Hainan International Travel Healthcare Center, Haikou, Hainan, China
| | - Yizhe Luo
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Na Yue
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Wenhao Li
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Xiaohong Yang
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Jing Yi
- Department of Transfusion Medicine, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Fuqiang Ye
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Ji He
- Xiamen International Travel Health Care Center (Xiamen Customs Port Outpatient Department), Xiamen, China
| | - Yong Qi
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Fei Lu
- College of Information Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Liuhe Rd. 288, Hangzhou, 310023, China.
| | - Chunhui Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China.
| | - Weilong Tan
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China.
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Ding FY, Ge HH, Ma T, Wang Q, Hao MM, Li H, Zhang XA, Maude RJ, Wang LP, Jiang D, Fang LQ, Liu W. Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:6647-6660. [PMID: 37846616 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Revised: 08/20/2023] [Accepted: 09/21/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023]
Abstract
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with increasing incidence and geographic extent. The extent to which global climate change affects the incidence of SFTS disease remains obscure. We use an integrated multi-model, multi-scenario framework to assess the impact of global climate change on SFTS disease in China. The spatial distribution of habitat suitability for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis was predicted by applying a boosted regression tree model under four alternative climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the periods 2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089. We incorporate the SFTS cases in the mainland of China from 2010 to 2019 with environmental variables and the projected distribution of H. longicornis into a generalized additive model to explore the current and future spatiotemporal dynamics of SFTS. Our results demonstrate an expanded geographic distribution of H. longicornis toward Northern and Northwestern China, showing a more pronounced change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the environmental suitability of H. longicornis is predicted to be reduced in Central and Eastern China. The SFTS incidence in three time periods (2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089) is predicted to be increased as compared to the 2010s in the context of various RCPs. A heterogeneous trend across provinces, however, was observed, when an increased incidence in Liaoning and Shandong provinces, while decreased incidence in Henan province is predicted. Notably, we predict possible outbreaks in Xinjiang and Yunnan in the future, where only sporadic cases have been reported previously. These findings highlight the need for tick control and population awareness of SFTS in endemic regions, and enhanced monitoring in potential risk areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fang-Yu Ding
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Hong-Han Ge
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China
| | - Tian Ma
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Qian Wang
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Meng-Meng Hao
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Hao Li
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China
| | - Xiao-Ai Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China
| | - Richard James Maude
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Li-Ping Wang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Diseases, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Dong Jiang
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Li-Qun Fang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China
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Song WY, Lv Y, Yin PW, Yang YY, Guo XG. Potential distribution of Leptotrombidium scutellare in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces, China, and its association with mite-borne disease transmission. Parasit Vectors 2023; 16:164. [PMID: 37194039 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-05789-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Leptotrombidium scutellare is one of the six main vectors of scrub typhus in China and is a putative vector of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). This mite constitutes a large portion of the chigger mite community in southwest China. Although empirical data on its distribution are available for several investigated sites, knowledge of the species' association with human well-being and involvement in the prevalence of mite-borne diseases remains scarce. METHODS Occurrence data on the chigger mite were obtained from 21 years (2001-2021) of field sampling. Using boosted regression tree (BRT) ecological models based on climate, land cover and elevation variables, we predicted the environmental suitability for L. scutellare in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces. The potential distribution range and shifts in the study area for near-current and future scenarios were mapped and the scale of L. scutellare interacting with human activities was evaluated. We tested the explanatory power of the occurrence probability of L. scutellare on incidences of mite-borne diseases. RESULTS Elevation and climate factors were the most important factors contributing to the prediction of the occurrence pattern of L. scutellare. The most suitable habitats for this mite species were mainly concentrated around high-elevation areas, with predictions for the future showing a trend towards a reduction. Human activity was negatively correlated with the environmental suitability of L. scutellare. The occurrence probability of L. scutellare in Yunnan Province had a strong explanatory power on the epidemic pattern of HFRS but not scrub typhus. CONCLUSIONS Our results emphasize the exposure risks introduced by L. scutellare in the high-elevation areas of southwest China. Climate change may lead to a range contraction of this species towards areas of higher elevation and lessen the associated exposure risk. A comprehensive understanding of the transmission risk requires more surveillance efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wen-Yu Song
- Vector Laboratory, Institute of Pathogens and Vectors, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonosis Control and Prevention, Dali University, Dali, 671000, Yunnan, China
- State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650223, Yunnan, China
| | - Yan Lv
- Vector Laboratory, Institute of Pathogens and Vectors, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonosis Control and Prevention, Dali University, Dali, 671000, Yunnan, China
| | - Peng-Wu Yin
- Vector Laboratory, Institute of Pathogens and Vectors, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonosis Control and Prevention, Dali University, Dali, 671000, Yunnan, China
| | - Yi-Yu Yang
- Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Dali University, Dali, 671003, Yunnan, China
| | - Xian-Guo Guo
- Vector Laboratory, Institute of Pathogens and Vectors, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonosis Control and Prevention, Dali University, Dali, 671000, Yunnan, China.
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