Vulnerability to climate change increases with trophic level in terrestrial organisms

How does climate change impact social bees and bee sociality?

Climatic factors are known to shape the expression of social behaviours. Likewise, variation in social behaviour can dictate climate responses. Understanding interactions between climate and sociality is crucial for forecasting vulnerability and resilience to climate change across animal taxa. These interactions are particularly relevant for taxa like bees that exhibit a broad diversity of social states. An emerging body of literature aims to quantify bee responses to environmental change with respect to variation in key functional traits, including sociality. Additionally, decades of research on environmental drivers of social evolution may prove fruitful for predicting shifts in the costs and benefits of social strategies under climate change. In this review, we explore these findings to ask two interconnected questions: (a) how does sociality mediate vulnerability to climate change, and (b) how might climate change impact social organisation in bees? We highlight traits that intersect with bee sociality that may confer resilience to climate change (e.g. extended activity periods, diet breadth, behavioural thermoregulation) and we generate predictions about the impacts of climate change on the expression and distribution of social phenotypes in bees. The social evolutionary consequences of climate change will be complex and heterogeneous, depending on such factors as local climate and plasticity of social traits. Many contexts will see an increase in the frequency of eusocial nesting as warming temperatures accelerate development and expand the temporal window for rearing a worker brood. More broadly, climate-mediated shifts in the abiotic and biotic selective environments will alter the costs and benefits of social living in different contexts, with cascading impacts at the population, community and ecosystem levels.

Predators control pests and increase yield across crop types and climates: a meta-analysis

Pesticides have well-documented negative consequences to control crop pests, and natural predators are alternatives and can provide an ecosystem service as biological control agents. However, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding whether such biological control can be a widely applicable solution, especially given ongoing climatic variation and climate change. Here, we performed a meta-analysis focused on field studies with natural predators to explore broadly whether and how predators might control pests and in turn increase yield. We also contrasted across studies pest suppression by a single and multiple predators and how climate influence biological control. Predators reduced pest populations by 73% on average, and increased crop yield by 25% on average. Surprisingly, the impact of predators did not depend on whether there were many or a single predator species. Precipitation seasonality was a key climatic influence on biological control: as seasonality increased, the impact of predators on pest populations increased. Taken together, the positive contribution of predators in controlling pests and increasing yield, and the consistency of such responses in the face of precipitation variability, suggest that biocontrol has the potential to be an important part of pest management and increasing food supplies as the planet precipitation patterns become increasingly variable.

Understanding temporal variability across trophic levels and spatial scales in freshwater ecosystems

A tenet of ecology is that temporal variability in ecological structure and processes tends to decrease with increasing spatial scales (from locales to regions) and levels of biological organization (from populations to communities). However, patterns in temporal variability across trophic levels and the mechanisms that produce them remain poorly understood. Here we analyzed the abundance time series of spatially structured communities (i.e., metacommunities) spanning basal resources to top predators from 355 freshwater sites across three continents. Specifically, we used a hierarchical partitioning method to disentangle the propagation of temporal variability in abundance across spatial scales and trophic levels. We then used structural equation modeling to determine if the strength and direction of relationships between temporal variability, synchrony, biodiversity, and environmental and spatial settings depended on trophic level and spatial scale. We found that temporal variability in abundance decreased from producers to tertiary consumers but did so mainly at the local scale. Species population synchrony within sites increased with trophic level, whereas synchrony among communities decreased. At the local scale, temporal variability in precipitation and species diversity were associated with population variability (linear partial coefficient, β = 0.23) and population synchrony (β = -0.39) similarly across trophic levels, respectively. At the regional scale, community synchrony was not related to climatic or spatial predictors, but the strength of relationships between metacommunity variability and community synchrony decreased systematically from top predators (β = 0.73) to secondary consumers (β = 0.54), to primary consumers (β = 0.30) to producers (β = 0). Our results suggest that mobile predators may often stabilize metacommunities by buffering variability that originates at the base of food webs. This finding illustrates that the trophic structure of metacommunities, which integrates variation in organismal body size and its correlates, should be considered when investigating ecological stability in natural systems. More broadly, our work advances the notion that temporal stability is an emergent property of ecosystems that may be threatened in complex ways by biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation.

Temperature and predators as interactive drivers of community properties

The effects of warming on ecological communities emerge from a range of potentially asymmetric impacts on individual physiology and development. Understanding these responses, however, is limited by our ability to connect mechanisms or emergent patterns across the many processes that drive variation in demography. Further complicating this understanding is the gain or loss of predators to many communities, which may interact with changes in temperature to drive community change. Here we conducted a factorial warming and predation experiment to test generalized predictions about responses to warming. We used microcosms with a range of protists, rotifers, and a gastrotrich, with and without the predator Actinosphaerium, to assess changes in diversity, body size, function, and composition in response to warming. We find that community respiration and predator:prey biovolume ratios peak at intermediate temperatures, while species richness declined with temperature. We also found that overall biomass increased with species richness, driven by the effect of temperature on richness. There was little evidence of an interaction between predation and temperature change, likely because the predator was mostly limited to the intermediate temperatures. Overall, our results suggest that general predictions about community change are still challenging to make but may benefit by considering multiple dimensions of community patterns in an integrated way.

A simple method to account for thermal boundary layers during the estimation of CTmax in small ectotherms

As temperatures rise, understanding how ectotherms will become impacted by thermal stress is of critical importance. In this context, many researchers quantify critical temperatures - these are the upper (CTmax) and lower (CTmin) thermal limits at which organisms can no longer function. Most studies estimate CTs using bath-based methods where organisms are submerged within a set thermal environment. Plate-based methods (i.e. hot plates), however, offer huge opportunity for automation and are readily available in many lab settings. Plates, however, generate a unidirectional thermal boundary layer above their surface which means that the temperatures experienced by organisms of different sizes is different. This boundary layer effect can bias estimates of critical temperatures. Here, we test the hypothesis that biases in critical temperature estimation on hot plates are driven by organism height. We also quantify the composition of the boundary layer in order to correct for these biases. We assayed four differently sized species of UK ants for their CTmax in dry baths (with no boundary layer) and on hot plates (with a boundary layer). We found that hot plates overestimated the CTmax values of the different ants, and that this overestimate was larger for taller species. By statistically modelling the thickness of the thermal boundary layer, and combining with estimates of species height, we were able to correct this overestimation and eliminate methodological differences. Our study provides two main findings. First, we provide evidence that organism height is positively related to the bias present in plate-based estimates of CTmax. Second, we show that a relatively simple statistical model can correct for this bias. By using simple corrections for boundary layer effects, as we have done here, researchers could open up a new possibility space in the design and implementation of thermal tolerance assays using plates rather than restrictive dry or water baths.