Complex interactions of ENSO and local conditions buffer the poleward shift of migratory fish in a subtropical seascape

Long-term trends in the functional structure of estuarine fish assemblages in a subtropical estuary and its relationships with local environmental variability, man-made changes, and climatic drivers

Climate and anthropogenic impacts are prevalent in marine and estuarine ecosystems. Rapid environmental changes have altered biological diversity and the ecological services associated with ecosystems around the world. The consequences of these impacts on estuarine ecosystems are worrying, given that estuaries are essential habitats for maintaining the diversity of species functions, as they act as sources for larger ecosystems through the recruitment and replacement of species. Through long-term standardized monitoring (1996-2019), we evaluated the temporal variability of the functional structure of fish species in a subtropical estuary using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and their relationship with environmental, climatic, and anthropogenic variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM). We investigate the hypothesis that natural disturbances associated with El Niño events and anthropogenic ones related with changes in the estuary morphology will lead to a decrease in the diversity of functions of the fish assemblage in the Patos Lagoon Estuary in south Brazil (32°S). Our findings suggest an overall downward trend in the fish functional structure, especially in the second half (2006-2019) of the time series, which seems to be associated with a combination of abiotic effects (salinity and temperature), global climate phenomena (ENSO phases) and anthropogenic impacts (changes in the morphology of the estuarine mouth and its connection with the sea). These findings rise concern considering the current climate change scenario, where phenomena such as El Niño may become more frequent and intense. Therefore, the evidence from this study suggests that extreme natural climatic events in synergy with anthropogenic disturbances may imply biodiversity losses over time and, consequently, loss of ecosystem processes in a subtropical estuary.

Synergistic climatic and anthropogenic effects on marine species turnover in estuarine waters

Climate and anthropogenic stressors are frequent in coastal systems, affecting biological communities in different intensities and directions. When acting synergistically, their effects may be intensified. ENSO strongly affects the climate globally, being responsible for increased rainfall in the Atlantic Southwestern during El Niño and droughts during La Niña phases. Contrasting, human-made breakwaters have static influence in decreasing estuarine salinity. Using a 23-year of fish abundance dataset, we identified that intense El Niño events and breakwater extension decreased the marine fish abundance, with potential additive synergistic effects, whereas La Niña showed no influence. Species composition changes were observed after the breakwater extension, probably related to opportunistic habits of euryhaline species. Anthropogenic and natural climatic disturbances affect habitat use, and their synergic effects must be considered to evaluate ecosystem responses in the current climate change scenario, and constant human modification of coastal zones.

Long-term trends in juvenile Mugil liza abundance in relation to selected environmental and fisheries influences in southern Brazil

Overfishing constitutes a major threat affecting marine fish population worldwide, including mullet species that have been exploited by fisheries during the reproductive migration in temperate and tropical latitudes for millennia. In the present study, we investigated the relationship of fishing intensity of mullet Mugil liza during its reproductive migration and the abundance of their juveniles in an essential nursery ground for the species in the southwest Atlantic Ocean. To carry out this analysis, we used a 23-year standardized long-term time series (1997-2019) of monthly abundance of M. liza juveniles, local/regional (water temperature, salinity, water transparency and river discharge) and global (ENSO) environmental factors, along with compilations of fishing landing data for the species. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) revealed the negative effect of fishing adult populations on the abundance of juveniles when they reach the marine surf-zone and after recruiting into the estuary. Our results reinforce the importance of adequate conservation and fishery regulation policies to prevent the species' stock from collapsing.