Predicting flares in patients with stable systemic lupus erythematosus

Clinical features of flare in Japanese patients with new-onset SLE and risk factors for SLE flare in daily clinical practice: a single-center cohort study

This study aimed to elucidate the clinical features, outcomes and risk factors of flares in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Data were collected from patients with newly diagnosed SLE at the Fukushima Medical University Hospital between 2011 and 2022. Patients who experienced a flare during the study period constituted the flare group, and their clinical features were compared with those of the no-flare group. The cumulative flare-free survival regarding several clinical items was compared between the two groups using Kaplan-Meier's curves. Among 387 patients with SLE, 83 patients with newly diagnosed SLE were included. Their mean age was 37.9 years, and 29 patients experienced flares during the study period. The general characteristics were similar between the two groups, with the exception of the observation period and anti-SS-A antibody positivity. Regarding therapy, a significantly increased frequency of hydroxychloroquine intake and combination with immunosuppressive agents were observed in the no-flare group. The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a significantly higher cumulative flare-free survival in the anti-SS-A negative group and combination immunosuppressive therapy group. In conclusion, anti-SS-A positivity may be a risk factor for SLE flare. In turn, combination immunosuppressive therapy may be beneficial for SLE treatment in daily clinical practice.

Predictors of severe lupus flare: a prospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Flare-up of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a common characteristic that could have deleterious effects on patients' outcome and survival. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of severe lupus flare.

METHODS

120 patients with SLE were enrolled and followed-up for 23 months. Demographic, clinical manifestations, laboratory parameters and disease activity were recorded at each visit. In addition, presence of severe lupus flare at each visit was evaluated by using the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment (SELENA)-SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI) flare composite index. Predictors of severe lupus flare were obtained by backward logistic regression analyses. Predictors of SLEDAI were obtained by backward linear regression analyses.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 47 patients had at least one episode of severe lupus flare. Mean (SD) age of patients with severe flare versus no flare was 31.7 (7.89) and 38.3 (8.24) years, respectively (P = 0.001). Ten (62.5%) out of 16 males and 37 (35.5%) out of 104 females had severe flare (P = 0.04). History of lupus nephritis (LN) was recorded in 76.5% and 44% of patients with severe flare and no severe flare, respectively (P = 0.001). Thirty-five (29.2%) patients with high anti-double-stranded DNA (anti-ds-DNA antibody) and 12 (10%) with negative anti-ds-DNA antibody had severe lupus flare (P = 0.02). By multivariable logistic regression analysis, younger age (OR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.94, P = 0.0001), history of LN (OR = 4.66, 95% CI 1.55-14.002, P = 0.006) and high SLEDAI at the first visit (OR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.026-1.38) were the main predictors of flare. When severe lupus flare after the first visit was used as the outcome variable, similar findings were observed but, SLEDAI, although left among the final predictors in the model, was not significant. SLEDAIs in future visits were mainly predicted by Anti-ds-DNA antibody, 24-h urine protein and arthritis at the first visit.

CONCLUSION

SLE patients with younger age, history of previous LN or high baseline SLEDAI, may need closer monitoring and follow up.

Post-mRNA vaccine flares in autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases: Results from the COronavirus National Vaccine registry for ImmuNe diseases SINGapore (CONVIN-SING)

BACKGROUND

Studies of flares of autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases (AIIRD) after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination are limited by small sample size, short follow up or at risk of selection bias.

METHODS

A national retrospective cohort study of consecutive AIIRD patients ≥12 years old, across 8 hospitals who received at least one dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. Patients were included from the date of 1st vaccine dose and censored at the time of flare or on the date of the clinic visit at least 3 months from cohort entry, whichever came first. Predictors of flare were determined by Cox proportional hazards analysis.

FINDINGS

4627 patients (73% Chinese, 71% female) of median (IQR) age 61 (48, 70) years were included; 42% Rheumatoid arthritis, 14% Systemic lupus erythematosus and 11% Psoriatic arthritis. 47% were in remission, 41% low disease activity, 10% moderate disease activity and 1% in high disease activity. 18% patients flared, of which 11.7% were within the 3-month period of interest. 11.8% patients improved. Median (IQR) time-to-flare was 60 (30, 114) days. 25% flares were self-limiting, 61% mild-moderate and 14% severe. Older patients (53-65 years and >66 years) had a lower risk of flare [HR 0.6 (95% CI 0.5-0.8) and 0.7 (0.6-0.8) respectively]. Patients with inflammatory arthritis and with active disease had a higher risk of flare [HR 1.5 (1.2-2.0) and 1.4 (1.2-1.6), respectively]. Treatment with conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (csDMARDs), immunosuppression and prednisolone was also associated with an increased risk of flare [HR 1.5 (1.1-2), 1.2 (1.1-1.4) and 1.5 (1.2-1.8) for prednisolone ≤7.5 mg respectively].

INTERPRETATION

There was a moderately high rate of AIIRD flares after mRNA vaccination but also improvement in several patients. Severe flares and hospitalisation were rare. Thus, vaccination remains safe and highly recommended.

The impact of normal serum complement levels on the disease classification and clinical characteristics in systemic lupus erythematosus

BACKGROUND

Some patients have normal levels of complement during the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), although decreased serum levels of complement are a hallmark of the active phase of the disease. This study investigated the clinical characteristics, impact on the classification of SLE, and the prognosis of patients with SLE who had normal serum complement levels at initial diagnosis (N-com).

METHODS

We evaluated 21 patients with N-com and 96 patients with hypocomplementemia at the initial diagnosis of SLE (H-com). The classification rates among the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1997, Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) 2012, European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/ACR 2019 criteria, and clinical and immunological involvements were compared between SLE patients with N-com and H-com. Relapse and organ damage based on the SLICC/ACR damage index were also evaluated.

RESULTS

The classification rates of SLE were not significantly different in the ACR, SLICC, and EULAR/ACR criteria between the N-com and H-com groups. Patients with N-com had no significant differences in the classification rates among the three criteria, whereas patients with H-com had lower classification rates in the ACR criteria than in the SLICC criteria. A lower incidence of renal manifestation, less positivity for anti-dsDNA antibody, and a higher incidence of fever were observed in patients with N-com than in those with H-com. The occurrence of relapse and organ damage was not significantly different between patients with N-com and H-com.

CONCLUSION

Patients with N-com were less involved in renal manifestation and anti-dsDNA antibody positivity but had a higher incidence of fever than those with H-com, while having no disadvantage in SLE classification processes. Serum complement levels at the initial diagnosis of SLE may not predict prognosis.

Differential impact of disease activity and damage on health-related quality of life in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

BACKGROUND

To study the association between disease activity, disease-related organ damage and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among Asian patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

We prospectively recruited adult SLE patients from a single tertiary center and followed them three-monthly. We recorded the SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) at each visit. SLICC-ACR damage index (SDI) and HRQoL (Medical Outcomes Survey Short Form 36 (SF-36)) were recorded annually. We evaluated the association between SLEDAI-2K and SDI with SF-36 physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component scores using linear mixed effect models.

RESULTS

We studied 198 patients, comprising Chinese, Malays and Indians. The mean (SD) age at enrollment was 47.1 (12.5) years. The baseline median (IQR) SLEDAI-2k was 2 (0-4). While the mean PCS improved significantly in the second and third year, MCS was unchanged. In the multivariable mixed model analysis, SDI, but not SLEDAI-2k, was significantly associated with poorer PCS (estimate of coefficient (SE) -0.81 (0.29), p < .01). Conversely, SLEDAI-2k, but not SDI, was negatively associated with MCS (estimate of coefficient (SE) -0.36 (0.17), p = .04).

CONCLUSION

In this cohort of multi-ethnic Asian SLE patients, disease activity is associated with poorer mental, but not physical, HRQoL; whereas disease-related damage is associated with poorer physical, but not mental HRQoL. Our findings suggest a need to differentially approach the impaired HRQoL in SLE patients at different phases of disease; possibly by treating disease activity in patients with impaired mental HRQoL and addressing disease-related damage in patients with impaired physical functioning.

The association between lupus serology and disease outcomes: A systematic literature review to inform the treat-to-target approach in systemic lupus erythematosus

INTRODUCTION

Serological markers such as anti-double stranded (ds)DNA antibodies and complement fractions C3/C4, are integral components of disease activity assessment in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). However, it remains uncertain whether treatment should aim at restoration of serological abnormalities.

OBJECTIVES

To analyze and critically appraise the literature on the prognostic impact of active lupus serology despite clinical disease quiescence.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed in PubMed and EMBASE using the PICOT(S) (population, index, comparator, outcome(s), timing, setting) system to identify studies evaluating the association of serum anti-dsDNA, C3 and C4 levels assessed at the time of clinical remission or during the disease course, against the risk for impending flares and organ damage. Risk of bias was determined by the Quality in Prognosis Studies and ROB2 tools for observational and randomized controlled studies, respectively.

RESULTS

Fifty-three studies were eligible, the majority having moderate (70.6%) or high (11.8%) risk of bias and not adequately controlling for possible confounders. C3 hypocomplementemia during stable/inactive disease was associated with increased risk (2.0 to 3.8-fold) for subsequent flare in three out of seven relevant studies. Three out of four studies reported a significant effect of C4 hypocomplementemia on flare risk, including one study in lupus nephritis (likelihood ratio-positive 12.0). An increased incidence of flares (2.0 to 2.8-fold) was reported in 11 out of 16 studies assessing the prognostic effect of high anti-dsDNA, and similarly, the majority of studies yielded significant relationships with renal flares. Six studies examined the effect of combined (rather than individual) serological activity, confirming the increased risk (2.0 to 2.7-fold) for relapses. No consistent association was found with organ damage.

CONCLUSION

Notwithstanding the heterogeneity and risk of bias, existing evidence indicates a modest association between abnormal serology and risk for flare in patients with stable/inactive SLE. These findings provide limited support for inclusion of serology in the treat-to-target approach but rationalize to further investigate their prognostic implications especially in lupus nephritis.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio reflect disease activity and flares in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus - A prospective study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) with disease activity and flares in an inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) using a prospective study design.

METHODS

Consecutive adult patients (age≥21) who fulfilled the 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) or the 2012 Systemic Lupus International Collaboration Clinic Classification (SLICC) Criteria for SLE were followed every 3 months, with SLE disease activity assessed by using SLEDAI-2K, and disease flares defined and captured by the SELENA-SLEDAI Flare Index (SFI). NLR and PLR were computed from the automated machine-counted blood count differentials. Linear mixed model and generalized estimating equation model were constructed to analyze the associations between NLR/PLR and SLEDAI-2K and disease flares, with multivariate adjustments.

RESULTS

Of 290 patients recruited, the median (IQR) duration of follow-up and baseline SLEDAI-2K were 4.7 (3.2-6.1) years and 2 (0.5-3.5), respectively. On multivariable analyses, NLR was shown to be positively and significantly associated with SLEDAI-2K (estimate of coefficient (β)=0.05, P<0.01) and severe disease flares (odds ratio [OR] 1.05, P<0.05), but not with overall disease flares [OR 1.02, non-significant]. While PLR was shown to be positively associated with SLEDAI-2K [β=0.09, P<0.05], no statistically significant association between PLR and overall or severe disease flares was found [OR 1.00 and OR 1.06 respectively, non-significant].

CONCLUSION

Derived readily from automated blood count differentials, the NLR potentially serves as a surrogate prospective marker of disease activity and severe disease flares in SLE patients.

Predictors of admission to intensive care unit among systemic lupus erythematosus patients: prospective study

Background

Through the disease course, different prognostic factors have been addressed in patients with SLE admitted to intensive care unit. For instance, higher disease activity on admission, recent immunosuppressive therapy, infections, renal disease, and central nervous system involvement, all had negative effects on the outcome of the disease. It is still a clinical challenge for the physicians to manage this disease which has many aspects regarding its pathogenesis, clinical presentation, and its outcome remains to be explained.

The aim of our study was determining the course, outcome, and determinants of admission to intensive care unit in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

Results

Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus admitted to the intensive care unit in the study sample was 21.4%, and the death rate among them is 18.2%. In our study, the main causes of intensive care admission were cardiovascular causes followed by renal failure then infections. Holding the other covariates constant, a higher value of CRP, SLEDAI, and damage index value is associated with intensive care admission among lupus patients.

Conclusion

Our study showed that systemic lupus erythematosus patients with a higher value of CRP, SLEDAI, and damage index value were liable for intensive care unit admission. Good control of disease activity of SLE which in turn reduces damage of different body systems is mandatory. Periodic screening for functions of renal and cardiac systems is of great value. Proper screening and prophylaxis is recommended against variable causes of infections. Rheumatologists should be careful in controlling SLE active disease and to balance the doses of immunosuppressive especially in the presence of infection. They should focus the research on finding more accurate infection predictive index parameters to early predict the onset of infection.

Lupus low disease activity state within 12 months is associated with favourable outcomes in severely active systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

To demonstrate the significance of the time to attain lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS) after remission induction therapy in patients with severely active systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

We enrolled 79 patients starting prednisolone ≥0.4 mg/kg/day for active lupus with a British Isles Lupus Assessment Group 2004 index of A ≥ 1 or B ≥ 2, or for severe flare based on the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment-SLE Disease Activity Index (SELENA-SLEDAI). The time to LLDAS attainment was divided into ≤6, 6-12, and >12 months and non-LLDAS; associations between the timing of LLDAS and flares, damage accrual, and ≥50% LLDAS attainment were examined.

RESULTS

The mean SLEDAI was 17; median starting dose of prednisolone, 0.95 mg/kg/day; and mean observational period, 39.7 months. Six (7.6%) and 41 (51.9%) patients achieved LLDAS within 6 and 12 months. Patients with a shorter time to LLDAS achievement were more likely to spend ≥50% of the time in LLDAS and had a lower cumulative prednisolone dose; no differences were observed in damage accrual. Patients requiring longer than 12 months to achieve LLDAS had a higher prevalence of thrombocytopenia and those with non-LLDAS had lower renal function and a higher starting dose of prednisolone and steroid pulse therapy than those who achieved LLDAS within 12 months.

CONCLUSION

Achieving LLDAS within 12 months of induction therapy may be favourable in patients with severely active SLE. The low frequency of LLDAS attainment in high-risk populations highlights the need for a new strategy for SLE treatment.