The effects of ageing population on health expenditure and economic growth in China: A Bayesian-VAR approach

Implications for household health expenditure in China's ageing population: based on Red Herring hypothesis

The rising healthcare costs due to population aging present a complex issue, with debate centering on whether these costs are driven by aging or end-of-life care. This study examines healthcare expenditures in Chinese households using data from the 2005 and 2018 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. By applying the Heckman select model and a two-part model, the research innovatively includes time to death, income, social security and health level in the benchmark regression in order to validate the recent some new Red Herring hypothesis. The findings show that time to death is the primary determinant of healthcare expenditures, while the effect of aging is minimal. Income, social security, and health status also significantly influence health expenditure, but they do not function as Red Herring variables.

Integrating social, climate and environmental changes to confront accelerating global aging

INTRODUCTION

The global increase in the aging population presents critical challenges for healthcare systems, social security, and economic stability worldwide. Although the studies of the global rate of aging have increased more than four times in the past two decades, few studies have integrated the potential combined effects of socio-economic, climatic, and environmental factors.

METHODS

We calculated the geographic heterogeneity of aging population growth rates from 218 countries between 1960 and 2022. Public databases were then integrated to assess the impacts of seven global stressors: socio-economic vulnerability, temperature, drought, seasonality, climate extremes, air pollution, and greening vulnerability on growth rates of aging population (a totally 156 countries). Linear regression models were primarily used to test the statistically significant effects of these stressors on the rate of aging, and multiple model inference was then used to test whether the number of stressors exceeding specific thresholds (e.g., > 25, 50, and 75%) was consistently significant in the best models. The importance of stressors and the number of stressors exceeding thresholds was verified using random forest models for countries experiencing different population aging rates.

RESULTS

Our analysis identified significant heterogeneity in growth rates of aging population globally, with many African countries exhibiting significantly lower aging rates compared with Europe. High socio-economic vulnerability, increased climate risks (such as high temperature and intensive extreme climate), and decreased environmental quality were found to significantly increase growth rates of the aging population (P < 0.05). The positive combined impacts of these stressors were diminished at medium-high levels of stressors (i.e., relative to their maximum levels observed in nature). The number of global stressors exceeding the 25% threshold emerged as an important predictor of global aging rates. Demographic changes in regions with relatively rapid aging (e.g., Africa and Asia) are more sensitive to climate change (e.g., extreme climate and drought) and the number of global stressors, and regions with low to medium rates of aging (e.g., Europe and the Americas) are more sensitive to socio-economic vulnerability and environmental stability (e.g., drought, green fragility and air pollution).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings underscore that policy tools or methods must be developed that consider the holistic dimension of the global factor. Further investigations are essential to understand the complex interactions between multiple stressors and their combined effects on global aging.

Equity and trends in the allocation of health human resources in China from 2012 to 2021

BACKGROUND

As the second most populous country in the world, China has a huge demand for health human resources. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has continuously increased investment in the health sector and implemented relevant policies and systems in an attempt to enhance the overall quantity and equity of health human resources. This study aims to analyze the equity and developmental trends in the allocation of health human resources in China from 2012 to 2021, providing reference and theoretical support for the government's further optimization of health human resources allocation.

METHODS

This study collected health human resources data from 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China from 2012 to 2021. The methods employed included Lorenz curves, Gini coefficients, and agglomeration degree analysis, which examined the developmental trends and equity of health human resources from the perspectives of population and geographical.

RESULTS

This study found that over the past decade, there has been a significant increase in the total quantity of health human resources in China, accompanied by an improvement in equity, although disparities still exist. There are notable variations in the distribution of health human resources based on geographical area, with disparities between different regions. Relative shortages of health human resources are observed in western regions, while some areas in the eastern and central regions exhibit an abundance or surplus of health human resources.

CONCLUSION

Overall, health human resources in China have experienced stable development, with an incremental improvement in allocation equity, yet there remains considerable room for progress. It is imperative to continue strengthening policy guidance and regulation to facilitate the rational flow of health human resources, narrow regional disparities, and achieve the goal of universal health coverage.

What is the relationship between changes in the size of economies and mortality derived population health measures in high income countries: A causal systematic review

CONTEXT

The economy has been long recognised as an important determinant of population health and a healthy population is considered important for economic prosperity.

AIM

To systematically review the evidence for a causal bidirectional relationship between aggregate economic activity (AEA) at national level for High Income Countries, and 1) population health (using mortality and life expectancy rates as indicators) and 2) inequalities in population health.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review of quantitative studies considering the relationship between AEA (GDP, GNI, GNP or recession) and population health (mortality or life expectancy) and inequalities for High Income Countries. We searched eight databases and grey literature. Study quality was assessed using an adapted version of the Effective Public Health Practice Project's Quality Assessment tool. We used Gordis' adaptation of the Bradford-Hill framework to assess causality. The studies were synthesised using Cochrane recommended alternative methods to meta-analysis and reported following the Synthesis without Meta-analysis (SWiM) guidelines. We assessed the certainty of the evidence base in line with GRADE principles.

FINDINGS

Of 21,099 records screened, 51 articles were included in our analysis. There was no evidence for a consistent causal relationship (either beneficial or harmful) of changes in AEA leading to changes in population health (as indicated by mortality or life expectancy). There was evidence suggesting that better population health is causally related to greater AEA, but with low certainty. There was insufficient evidence to consider the causal impact of AEA on health inequalities or vice versa.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in AEA in High Income Countries did not have a consistently beneficial or harmful causal relationship with health, suggesting that impacts observed may be contextually contingent. We tentatively suggest that improving population health might be important for economic prosperity. Whether or not AEA and health inequalities are causally linked is yet to be established.

Older adults 's hospitalizational costs and burden study in China--analysis from CHARLS data 2018

Objective

The aging Chinese population is driving up health care costs, with hospitalizational accounting for a large portion of total health care costs. By 2012, hospitalization costs for people over 60 years of age exceeded outpatient costs, marking a change in the allocation of medical resources. Further research is needed on the factors influencing changes in hospitalizational costs and burden. This paper examines the costs and burden of hospitalization for older adults from a micro perspective, providing new evidence to explain how social, medical, family, personal, and geographic factors affect them.

Methods

Utilizing data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a linear regression model was constructed to investigate the impact of various factors on the hospitalization costs and burden among the older adult in China. To ensure the heterogeneity of the results, the sample was divided into subgroups based on different regions for comparative analysis. Additionally, collinearity among the variables was examined.

Results

The average hospitalization costs for the older adult are $1,199.24, with a burden score of 0.5. Residence, type of chronic diseases, region, family size, type of health service facility, received distance, smoke and alcoholic significantly affect the out-of-pocket expenses for older adult hospitalizations. In terms of the burden of hospitalization for the older adult, Residence, health insurance, education, type of chronic diseases, region, family size, ethnic, type of health service facility, received distance, smoke, alcoholic and pension significantly impact the hospitalization burden for the older adult.

Conclusion

This paper provides a new perspective to explain the factors influencing hospitalizational costs and burden in China. The policy recommendations include expanding health insurance coverage and promoting commercial insurance to enhance the accessibility and financial security of healthcare services. Strengthening primary care is suggested to reduce the burden on hospitals and lower the overall cost of hospitalization. Policies aimed at addressing regional healthcare disparities are proposed, along with targeted support for vulnerable groups, including subsidies and culturally sensitive services.

Analysis of demand and influencing factors for smart senior care among older adults in underdeveloped regions of western China: a case study of Lanzhou

Introduction

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence and Internet-of-Things technology, internal support systems among families are gradually weakening, which can no longer satisfy the current demands of older adults. In this context, smart senior care has become a new development direction. However, existing studies on the demand for smart senior care are primarily concentrated in economically developed provinces and mega-cities in eastern China; their research results or conclusions may not apply to underdeveloped areas in the Western region. Therefore, our study selects Lanzhou as a representative city in an underdeveloped western region to investigate the demand of older adults for smart senior care and analyze the influencing factors.

Methods

This cross-sectional study included 4,815 older adults from Lanzhou, China. A structured questionnaire was designed to investigate the demands of the older adults for smart senior care and analyze thie influencing factors. The Chi-square test was used for single factor analysis of each variable. The logistic regression model included the statistically significant variables to analyze factors influencing older adults' demand for smart senior care. A significance level of p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Among the surveyed older adults, 1,625 (33.75%) expressed a demand for smart senior care. The finding indicated that participants' age, level of education, marital status, monthly income, number of children, type of endowment insurance, and knowledge of smart senior care were significantly associated with their demands for smart senior care (p < 0.05). Notably, medical care emerged as the smart senior care service with the highest demand rate (79.45%).

Conclusion

In Lanzhou, older adults show a low level of knowledge but a high demand for smart senior care. Their demand is influenced by personal, family, health conditions, senior care security, and other factors. To advance smart senior care, government departments should accelerate the improvement of the laws and regulations on smart senior care while vigorously enhancing the service's publicity to raise knowledge about it. Additionally, the service contents for smart senior care should be expanded to meet the diversified demands of older adults.

Predictive models for delay in medical decision-making among older patients with acute ischemic stroke: a comparative study using logistic regression analysis and lightGBM algorithm

OBJECTIVE

To explore the factors affecting delayed medical decision-making in older patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using logistic regression analysis and the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithm, and compare the two predictive models.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 309 older patients aged ≥ 60 who underwent AIS. Demographic characteristics, stroke onset characteristics, previous stroke knowledge level, health literacy, and social network were recorded. These data were separately inputted into logistic regression analysis and the LightGBM algorithm to build the predictive models for delay in medical decision-making among older patients with AIS. Five parameters of Accuracy, Recall, F1 Score, AUC and Precision were compared between the two models.

RESULTS

The medical decision-making delay rate in older patients with AIS was 74.76%. The factors affecting medical decision-making delay, identified through logistic regression and LightGBM algorithm, were as follows: stroke severity, stroke recognition, previous stroke knowledge, health literacy, social network (common factors), mode of onset (logistic regression model only), and reaction from others (LightGBM algorithm only). The LightGBM model demonstrated the more superior performance, achieving the higher AUC of 0.909.

CONCLUSIONS

This study used advanced LightGBM algorithm to enable early identification of delay in medical decision-making groups in the older patients with AIS. The identified influencing factors can provide critical insights for the development of early prevention and intervention strategies to reduce delay in medical decisions-making among older patients with AIS and promote patients' health. The LightGBM algorithm is the optimal model for predicting the delay in medical decision-making among older patients with AIS.

Eco-friendly revenues for healthcare: assessing the relationship between green taxation, public health expenditures, and life expectancy in China

Introduction

The synergy of green taxation, public health expenditures, and life expectancy emerges as a compelling narrative in the intricate symphony of environmental responsibility and public well-being. Therefore, this study examine the impact of green taxation on life expectancy and the moderating role of public health expenditure on the said nexus, particularly in the context of China, an emerging economy.

Methods

Statistical data is collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China to empirically examine the proposed relationships. The dataset contains provincial data across years.

Results

Using fixed-effect and system GMM regression models alongwith control variables, the results found a positive and statistically significant influence of green taxation on life expectancy. Moreover, public health expenditures have a positive and statistically significant partial moderating impact on the direct relationship.

Discussion

These findings suggest that the higher cost of pollution encourages individuals and businesses to shift to less environmentally harmful alternatives, subsequently improving public health. Moreover, government investment in the health sector increases the availability and accessibility of health facilities; thus, the positive impact of green taxation on public health gets more pronounced. The findings significantly contribute to the fields of environmental and health economics and provide a new avenue of research for the academic community and policymakers.

Immigration, policies of integration and healthcare expenditure: A longitudinal analysis of the INHS (2002‒2018)

BACKGROUND

Immigration has become a structural phenomenon in Italy, a country reputed as being 'immigrant-friendly'. The increase in the proportion of immigrants has led to increasing efforts to design and implement health policies throughout the country while controlling public spending.

METHOD

Being interested in both the cross-sectional and time series dimensions of analysis, we used a PVAR (Panel Vector Autoregression) model, which combines the VAR technique with panel data models, to estimate the impact of regular immigration on health expenditure.

FINDINGS

Our results confirm that an increase in the share of regular immigrants in the total population decreases the amount of aggregate public health expenditure.

CONCLUSION

Despite the intense activity by Italian governments on social and health integration policies for immigrants, policymakers may focus more on the implementation of national policies at regional and local levels, on their costs and with a specific focus on undocumented immigrants.

The impact of population characteristics on transportation CO2 emissions-does population aging important?

Reducing transportation CO2 emissions and addressing population characteristic changes are two major challenges facing China, involving various requirements for sustainable economic development. Due to the interdependence of population characteristics and transportation, human activities have become a significant cause of the increase in greenhouse gas levels. Previous studies mainly focused on evaluating the relationship between one-dimensional or multi-dimensional demographic factors and CO2 emissions, while few studies have reported on the effect of multi-dimensional demographic factors on CO2 emissions in transportation. Analyzing the relationship between transportation CO2 emissions is the foundation and key to understanding and reducing overall CO2 emissions. Therefore, this paper used the STIRPAT model and panel data from 2000 to 2019 to investigate the effect of population characteristics on CO2 emissions of China's transportation sector, and further analyzed the effect mechanism and emission effect of population aging on transportation CO2 emissions. The results show that (1) population aging and population quality restrained CO2 emissions from transportation, but the negative effects of population aging were indirectly caused by economic growth and transportation demand. And with the aggravation of population aging, the influence on transport CO2 emissions changed and presented a U-shape. (2) Population living standard on transportation CO2 emissions exhibited an urban-rural difference, and urban living standard was predominant in transportation CO2 emissions. Additionally, population growth is under a weakly positive effect on transportation CO2 emissions. (3) At the regional level, the effect of population aging on transportation CO2 emissions showed regional differences. In the eastern region, the CO2 emission coefficient of transportation was 0.0378, but not significant. In central and western regions, the influence coefficient of transportation was 0.6539 and 0.2760, respectively. These findings indicated that policy makers should make relevant recommendations from the perspective of coordinating population policy and energy conservation and emission reduction policy in transportation.

Population ageing and sustainability of healthcare financing in China

BACKGROUND

In China, the healthcare financing structure involves multiple parties, including the government, society and individuals. Medicare Fund is an important way for the Government and society to reduce the burden of individual medical costs. However, with the aging of the population, the demand of Medicare Fund is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the sustainability of the healthcare financing structure in the context of population ageing.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this paper is to organize the characteristics of population ageing as well as healthcare financing in China. On this basis, it analyzes the impact mechanism of population ageing on healthcare financing and the sustainability of existing healthcare financing.

METHODS

This paper mainly adopts the method of literature research and inductive summarization. Extracting data from Health Statistics Yearbook of China and Labor and Social Security Statistics Yearbook of China. Collected about 60 pieces of relevant literature at home and abroad.

RESULTS

China has already entered a deeply ageing society. Unlike developed countries in the world, China's population ageing has distinctive feature of ageing before being rich. A healthcare financing scheme established by China, composing of the government, society, and individuals, is reasonable. However, under the pressure of population ageing, China's current healthcare financing scheme will face enormous challenges. Scholars are generally pessimistic about the sustainability of China's healthcare financing scheme.

CONCLUSIONS

Population ageing will increase the expenditure and reduce the income of the Medicare Fund. This will further affect the sustainability of the healthcare financing structure. As a consequence, the state should pay particular attention to this issue and take action to ensure that the Fund continues to operate steadily.

A global perspective on the governance-health nexus

BACKGROUND

This study raises two key arguments: First, government health expenditure (GHE) and per capita out-of-pocket expenditures on healthcare (OPEH) are sensitive to contemporary good governance practices, giving policy importance to the exogeneity of healthcare determinants, i.e., governance for health rather than health governance. Second, it is the income level of countries that reflects the volatility of the governance spillovers on the subject.

METHODS

The present study constructs a composite governance index (CGI) and employs a set of panel data for 144 countries over the period from 2002 to 2020. To allow comparability and extract specific policy implications, the countries are classified as full, high-, middle-, and low-income panels. Meanwhile to delve into the short- and long-run effects of CGI on GHE and OPEH, the study employs the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) model. Further, to establish a causal link between the variables, it uses the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality technique.

RESULTS

The results indicate that CGI is significantly cointegrated with GHE and OPEH in all recipient panels. It indicates that while CGI has significantly positive impacts on GHE and OPEH, its effects vary according to the income level of the underlying economies. The findings support the idea of governance for health and show that CGI drives the stabilization and enhancement of GHE and OPEH in the long run. Furthermore, the findings reveal that economic growth, the age dependency ratio, and tax revenue have positive effects, while the crude death rate and the child mortality rate exert negative impacts on the subject. Finally, the results highlight a unidirectional causality running from CGI to GHE and OPEH, while no feedback response is evident.

CONCLUSIONS

Although an increase in GHE and OPEH is associated with the improvement of the population's healthcare, the results suggest the recognition of the importance and institutionalization of good governance to streamline this improvement through effective channelization, outreach, and social environment development for extensive health inclusion.

Classification of health needs: a cluster analysis of older adults in urban areas

BACKGROUND

In this study, a cross-sectional survey was used to understand and analyze the health status and health needs of the elderly in the community. The cluster analysis method was used to explore the relationship between health needs items and investigate the commonness among health demand items, to provide a reference for the development of health management of the elderly with chronic diseases.

METHODS

We used convenience sampling to recruit the participants (aged 60 and above) from four urban community centers in Jinzhou City, Liaoning Province, China, in this study. This study uses the Medical Outcomes Study(MOS)36-Item Short-Form Health Survey. The self-designed questionnaire includes sociodemographic characteristics, chronic diseases, physical examination conditions, illness in the past two weeks, and a health needs questionnaire. SPSS 18.0 was used for data entry and analysis. Data analysis methods included descriptive statistical analysis, t-test, one-way analysis, cluster analysis, and linear multiple regression analysis.

RESULTS

The rate of health needs among the elderly in the community for various health services is 1.3-69.7%, of which the top three are: regular physical examination (69.7%), day Care Center (67.7%), the establishment of a Medical Alert Systems (66.1%). The health needs of the elderly in the community are divided into three categories: basic needs (24 items), health education (13 items), and first aid (2 items). The regression analysis found that the influencing factors of health status were age, revenue and expenditure, medical expenses, health education, basic needs, and first aid.

CONCLUSIONS

The community should strengthen the management of chronic diseases of the elderly and the publicity and education of related knowledge, and provide complementary health care services according to the health needs of the elderly, improve the health of the elderly, and improve the quality of life of the elderly.

Evolutionary game and stability analysis of elderly care service quality supervision from the perspective of government governance

Objective

The performance of government functions is an important guarantee for the standardized operation of the elderly service market. The objective of this study is to explore the optimal path for the government to govern the elderly care service market.

Methods

The tripartite evolutionary game model is proposed in the paper, which composed of local governments, private elderly care institutions and the public. Furthermore, three mechanisms, i.e. dynamic penalty and static subsidy, static penalty and dynamic subsidy, dynamic penalty and dynamic subsidy, are designed. Under these different mechanisms, the stability of each subject's strategy choice is analyzed by using system dynamics simulation.

Results

The introduction of dynamic mechanisms can compensate for the inability of static mechanisms to bring the system to a steady state. The dynamic penalty and dynamic subsidy mechanism allows the system to evolve to the desired point of stability. The self-discipline behavior of private elderly care institutions is positively correlated with penalties and reputation gains-losses, negatively correlated with subsidies, and not correlated with supervision rewards. Excessive subsidies will promote the collusion of private elderly institutions.

Conclusion

Only when the local government adopts the dynamic penalty and dynamic subsidy mechanism will private elderly care institutions choose to operate in a fully self-disciplined manner. Reasonable adjustments of penalties, reputation gains-losses and subsidies can not only further optimize the dynamic penalty and dynamic subsidy mechanism, but also help to achieve diversified regulatory objectives of the government. This study would provide a reference for local governments seeking to develop effective regulatory policies for the elderly service market.

Analysis of the factors influencing the effectiveness of local government's purchase of older adults care services - a grounded theory study based on typical cases

Background

Population aging is a basic national condition in China at present and for a long time to come, forcing the country to accelerate the pace of building its public older adults care system. The government's purchase of older adults care services has become an effective way to make up for the lack of the family's older adults care function, to which the Chinese government attaches particular importance. The article selects 11 typical cases from the excellent case base released by the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs officials in 2022 to study the influencing factors of the effect of local government purchase of older adults care service supply.

Methods

NVivo data analysis tools have significant advantages in retrieving, analyzing and coding data more efficiently and accurately, which helps to construct theoretical propositions and formulate hypotheses to be tested in qualitative research. The study intends to adopt the grounded theory approach to analyze the text with the help of NVivo12 software, to condense the practice mechanism of local governments' purchasing of older adults care services and to construct a relational model.

Results

Taking "the supply effect of local government purchasing older adults services" as the main logic line, the article summarizes the four main influencing factors of the supply effect of government purchasing older adults services: the real demand of the society, the government's power and responsibility system, the government's governance ability, and the society's acceptance ability.

Conclusion

The sense of gain, happiness and security of the older adults group is the starting point and landing point of the older adults service policy formulation and implementation. Policy guidance and decision-making have an important impact on the quality of the supply of older adults care services and the development of the older adults care services industry. Clarifying the direction of policy guidance, reflecting the comprehensive efficiency of government governance and utilizing the professional advantages of social forces, is the key to improving the effectiveness of the government's purchase of older adults care services.

Association Between Daily Internet Use and Incidence of Chronic Diseases Among Older Adults: Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Chronic disease incidence among the elderly is increasing, which is correlated with the acceleration of population aging. Evolving internet technologies may help prevent and provide interventions for chronic diseases in an accelerating aging process. However, the impact of daily internet use on the incidence of chronic diseases is not well understood.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate whether daily internet use by middle-aged and older adults may inhibit or promote the occurrence of chronic diseases.

METHODS

We included participants from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a longitudinal survey of Chinese residents aged ≥45 years. We assessed 8-year data from wave 1 (June 2011-March 2012) to wave 4 (July-September 2018) in CHARLS. Data from wave 4 were used for a cross-sectional study, and data from all 4 waves were used for a longitudinal study. Self-reported data were used to track variables, including internet use, use frequency, and the incidence of different chronic diseases. Cox proportional hazards modeling was applied in the longitudinal study to examine the relationship between daily internet use and chronic diseases among middle-aged and older adults, while adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and health behaviors. In addition, longitudinal data were used to analyze internet usage trends, and cross-sectional data were used to analyze the factors influencing internet use.

RESULTS

Among the 20,113 participants included in the longitudinal analyses, internet use increased significantly, from 2% to 12.3%, between 2011 and 2018. The adjusted model found statistically significant relationships between daily internet use and a lower incidence of the following chronic diseases: hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] 0.78, 95% CI 0.65-0.95, P=.01), chronic lung disease (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57-0.97, P=.03), stroke (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50-0.94, P=.02), digestive disease (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58-0.91, P=.005), memory-related disorders (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.37-0.91, P=.02), arthritis or rheumatism (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.48-0.76, P<.001), asthma (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33-0.84, P=.007), depression (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.71-0.89, P<.001), and vision impairment (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.93, P=.004). Moreover, our study also showed that with increasing frequency of internet use, the risk of some chronic diseases decreases.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that middle-aged and older adults who use the internet have a reduced risk of developing chronic diseases versus those who do not use the internet. The increasing prevalence of daily internet use among middle-aged and older adults may stimulate contemplation of the potential role of internet platforms in future research on chronic disease prevention.

Patterns and determinants of incident cataract surgery in China from 2011 to 2015 using a nationally representative longitudinal database

OBJECTIVES

To investigate incident cataract surgery and to investigate determinants of cataract surgery uptake in Chinese adults.

DESIGN

This nationally representative longitudinal study recorded self-reported incident cataract surgery, and measured biological, clinical and socioeconomical characteristics at baseline and endline.

SETTING

In the first stage, 150 county-level units were randomly chosen with a probability-proportional-to-size sampling technique from a sampling frame containing all county-level units. The sample was stratified by region and within region by urban district or rural county and per capita gross domestic product. The final sample of 150 counties fell within 28 provinces of China.

PARTICIPANTS

Urban and rural Chinese persons aged 45 years and older.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Incident cataract surgery (primary outcome) and the factors associated with incident cataract surgery (secondary outcome).

RESULTS

Among 16 663 people enrolled in 2011, 13 705 (82.2%) attended follow-up in 2015. Among these, 167 (1.22%) reported incident cataract surgery. Those receiving surgery were significantly older (66.2±8.79 vs 58.3±9.18, p≤0.001) and more likely to report: illiteracy (44.9% vs 27.1%, p<0.001), poor baseline distance vision (49.7% vs 20.0%, p≤0.001), poor baseline near vision (37.1% vs 21.8%, p≤0.001), baseline visual impairment (15.6% vs 5.5%, p≤0.001), diabetes (12.0% vs 7.42%, p≤0.05) and higher baseline depression scores (9.7 vs 8.4 on a scale of 0-30, p≤0.05). In linear regression models, older age, worse distance vision, hypertension or diabetes, illiteracy and lower depression score were significantly associated with undergoing surgery. Results were similar in models including only persons aged ≥60 years, except that urban residence was also associated with surgery. When only those aged ≥60 years with poor vision were included, results were again the same, except that higher household expenditure was also associated with surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, cataract surgical rates remain low; underserved groups such as rural dwellers are less likely to receive cataract surgery.

The impact of older adult care policy mixes on the construction of senior centers

The problem of an aging population is becoming increasingly serious, and the establishment of senior centers helps to promote the physical health and mental health of the older adult, a key factor in achieving the high-quality development of the old-age security industry. The government has issued a number of policies to promote the establishment and development of senior centers. However, more and more older adult care policy mixes have gradually shown the phenomenon of poor policy connection, confusing standards, and even mutually exclusive content, resulting in many problems in the construction of policy-driven senior centers. Therefore, based on the overall perspective of the older adult care policy mix, this paper uses the GMM method to explore the impact of the comprehensiveness, balance, and consistency of older adult care policy tool portfolios issued by Chinese government agencies on the construction of senior centers in China. The empirical analysis results show that a comprehensive and consistent policy mix can promote the establishment of senior centers, while the balance of the policy mix will inhibit the establishment of senior centers. This paper analyzes the impact of older adult care policy on the construction of senior centers from the perspective of the policy mix, which helps to clarify the different policy effects produced by different policy mix characteristics and provides feasible policy suggestions for the government to formulate more reasonable and effective policies.

Greenhouse gas emissions, economic globalization, and health expenditures nexus: does population aging matter in emerging market economies?

Papers on population aging and the effects of environmental quality on health expenditure have critical policy consequences. However, findings in the relevant literature are mixed, and papers generally focus on developed countries. To provide new information to the literature, this paper examines the impact of globalization, economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions, and population aging on health expenditures in emerging market economies with annual data for the period 2000 to 2018. The paper follows a second-generation advanced panel data method that considers cross-sectional dependency. The estimation results reveal that population aging, economic growth, and greenhouse gas emissions have an increasing effect on health expenditures, while globalization has a decreasing effect. Furthermore, one-way causality running from population aging to health expenditures is confirmed, while a feedback causality relationship is observed between health expenditures and other indicators (globalization, economic growth, and greenhouse gas emissions). After all, the outputs of this paper can provide critical policy implications about the relationships between aging, globalization, air quality, and health expenditures in developing countries.

Environmental quality and health expenditures efficiency in Türkiye: the role of natural resources

The environmental pollution caused by climate change and global warming pose significant risks to health. This raises the question how environmental disturbances can affect health expenditures. Based on this, this study examines the asymmetric effect of environmental quality on health expenditures in Türkiye using the non-linear ARDL (NARDL) model for the 1975-2019 period. In addition to environmental quality, natural resources, economic growth, and trade openness variables are also included in the health expenditure model. The findings support the existence of an asymmetric cointegration relationship between the series. The findings also indicate that positive environmental pollution shocks affect health expenditures positively in the long run, while negative environmental pollution shocks do not have a statistically significant effect on health expenditures. Positive and negative natural resource shocks affect health expenditures negatively in the long run. Despite the effect of positive economic growth shocks on health expenditures is positive but statistically insignificant, the effect of negative economic growth shocks is positive and significant. Besides, positive trade openness shocks have a negative effect on health expenditures and negative trade openness shocks have a positive effect. The findings prove that the steps to be taken to protect the environment in the current period will increase the effectiveness of health expenditures in the future. This situation has a guiding feature for policy-makers in terms of policy decisions.

Is ICT Development Conducive to Reducing the Vulnerability of Low-Carbon Energy? Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper constructs a low-carbon energy vulnerability system with the three dimensions of economy-society-environment, uses the entropy method to measure the low-carbon energy vulnerability index of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 2002 to 2018, and observes the essential characteristics. On this basis, we analyze the impact of the development of the Information Communication Technology (ICT) service industry on the vulnerability of low-carbon energy and explore the moderating effects of technological innovation and resource consumption. This paper draws the following conclusions: (1) The low-carbon energy vulnerability of OECD countries shows a gradual downward trend, showing three stages of "continuous rise-declining volatility-low-level fluctuation". The low-carbon energy policies and implementation efforts in different countries have become the key to reducing the vulnerabilities of low-carbon energy in OECD countries. The economic and social vulnerabilities of low-carbon energy in most countries are outstanding. (2) The development of the ICT service industry benefits by reducing the vulnerability of low-carbon energy with a significant weakening effect, while high-vulnerability countries benefit even more. (3) In the weakening effect of the development of the ICT service industry on the vulnerability of low-carbon energy, technological innovation exerts an enhanced moderating effect, and resource consumption exerts a disruptive moderating effect. Technological innovation accelerates the weakening effect of the ICT service industry, and resource consumption is not conducive to the weakening effect of the ICT service industry. Based on this, we draw corresponding policy recommendations.

The health consequences of civil wars: evidence from Afghanistan

This study examines the effects of long-run civil wars on healthcare, which is an important component of human capital development and their causality nexus in Afghanistan using the MVAR (modified vector autoregressive) approach and the Granger non-causality model covering data period 2002Q3-2020Q4. The primary results support a significant long-run relationship between variables, while the results of the MVAR model indicate the per capita cost of war, per capita GDP, and age dependency ratio have significantly positive impacts on per capita health expenditures, whereas child mortality rate and crude death rate have negative impacts. The results of the Granger non-causality approach demonstrate that there is a statistically significant bidirectional causality nexus between per capita health expenditure, per capita cost of war, per capita GDP, child mortality rate, crude death rate, and age dependency ratio, while it also supports the existence of strong and significant interconnectivity and multidimensionality between per capita cost of war and per capita health expenditure, with a significantly strong feedback response from the control variables. Important policy implications sourced from the key findings are also discussed.

How to promote the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system: A tripartite evolutionary game theory perspective

Due to the disorderly access to medical care and inefficient use of health resources, the advancement of the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment is more valued in promoting health system reform. Hence, this article integrates prospect theory into an evolutionary game model of the local government health departments, the medical institutions, and the patients in the system promotion of the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment. The simulation shows the specific influencing mechanism of the psychological perceived value of game subjects. Then by introducing the stochastic evolutionary game model, the system promotion under different medical cultures is also discussed in detail. The results indicate that for local government health departments, the amount and duration of financial subsidies are the key factors influencing the game system's evolution. For medical institutions, participating in the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system is relatively beneficial. For patients, the recovery rate in primary hospitals matters more than the cost of treatment. Changes in the risk sensitivity coefficient will cause the equilibrium of the game system to change. However, changes in the loss avoidance factor do not change the equilibrium and only have an impact on the speed of convergence. With the health departments' intervention, patients in rural medical culture are more inclined to support the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system than those in urban or town medical culture. Therefore, in order to promote the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system, this article recommends that more attention should be paid to the regulatory role of health departments and the participation improvement of medical institutions and patients.

Population ageing and health financing: A method for forecasting two sides of the same coin

There is a perception that population ageing will have deleterious effects on future health financing sustainability. We propose a new method-the Population Ageing financial Sustainability gap for Health systems (or alternatively, the PASH)-to explore how changes in the population age mix will affect health expenditures and revenues. Using a set of six anonymized country scenarios that are based on data from countries in Europe and the Western Pacific representing a diverse range of health financing systems, we forecast the size of the ageing-attributable gap between health revenues and expenditures from 2020 to 2100 under current health financing arrangements. In the country with the largest financing gap in 2100 (country S6) the majority (87.1%) is caused by growth in health expenditures. However in countries that are heavily reliant on labour-market related social contributions to finance health care, a sizeable share of the financing gap is due to reductions in health revenues. We argue that analyses giving equal attention to both health expenditures and revenues steers decision makers towards a more balanced set of policy options to address the challenges of population ageing, ranging from targeting expenditures and utilization of services to diversifying revenue.

Does Population Aging Impact China's Economic Growth?

The rapid aging of the population presents great challenges in terms of China's social security expenditure and economic growth. This paper uses the entropy method to comprehensively measure the provincial population aging index in 2008-2019 and constructs an intermediary effect model with it as the core explanatory variable. The results show that the population aging has a significant positive impact on economic growth and on the promotion of the economic growth of more developed areas; it also has a positive impact on the endowment insurance expenditure and medical and health expenditure and on the promotion of economically backward areas. Endowment spending and health spending fully mediate the relationship between population aging and economic growth.

Coupling analysis of population aging and economic growth with spatial-temporal variation: a case study in China

Background

China now faces an increasingly aging society which may exert economic pressure in the long run. This study illustrates the spatial pattern and evolution of population aging and economic development in China. The coupling coordination degree of population aging and economic development at the national and provincial levels are calculated and demonstrated, and the spatial patterns and characteristics are investigated.

Methods

This paper presents a coupling analysis of the elderly population rate (EPR) and per capita Gross Regional Product (GRP_pc) in China by using the coupling and coordination model. Further, the spatial pattern and evolution of population aging and economic development are investigated based on the standard deviational ellipse. The collected data is at the level of provincial administrative units in mainland China covering the period 2002 to 2020.

Results

The results reveal the spatial difference in the coupling and coordination degree between EPR and GRP_pc across provinces. The eastern coastal areas are higher than the central and western regions of China. The orientation and directions of EPR are more than GRP_pc, indicating that the polarization in population aging is more severe than economic development. Significant positive correlations between coupling coordination degree and sustainable competitiveness are detected.

Conclusions

Policymakers should fully consider regional differences and sustainable development in policy formulation of China. The western and northeastern provinces should be given priority in the regional sustainable development plan. At the same time, the coordination between population aging and economic development also requires to be examined especially.

Effect of economic uncertainty on public health expenditure in Economic Community of West African States: Implications for sustainable healthcare financing

This study investigates the dynamic effect of economic uncertainty on public health expenditure in the Economic Community of West African States region. The investigation is motivated by the recent volatilities in the global economy in the face of increasing demand for adequate funding of health systems in the region, and the need to fill the existing gap in the literature. The study employs the panel autoregressive distributed lag model to express the theoretical relationship between public health expenditure per capita, economic uncertainty and population growth rate, and estimates the model parameters using the mean group and the pooled mean group estimators, after accounting for stationarity and cointegration. Results reveal that on the aggregate, economic uncertainty and population growth are significant determinants of per capita health spending in the long run. When the countries are disaggregated by income groups, evidence suggests that in low-income countries, economic uncertainty is negatively associated with health spending in the short run, while a growing population reduces health spending per capita in the long run. In lower-middle-income countries, economic uncertainty increases health spending in the short run, but reduces it in the long run as uncertainty persists, while population growth negatively impacts health spending in the long run. We conclude that the dependence on public funding of the health system in the region appears unsustainable. Thus, health financing policies need to explore alternative funding mechanisms that entrench cost-sharing between the public and private financiers.

Energy and Mineral Resources Exploitation in the Delignitization Era: The Case of Greek Peripheries

The efficient and sustainable exploitation of energy resources may secure a sustainable economic growth for different regions. However, the peripheries are subject to social, economic, and political constraints, with limited power over energy management. The present work examines regional convergence in exploitation efficiency as synopsized in the GDP generated by energy and minerals in an era of the country’s efforts to shut down the lignite-run power production. With the assistance of panel unit root tests, we confirm non convergence of the variables employed, an expected result given the fact that different energy sources are being used for energy production by each different periphery, generating different economic results. In the second stage the methodology employed is a Bayesian vector auto-regressive model (BVAR) with an informative prior on the steady state. The particular methodology outperforms the conventional VAR methodology due to limited degrees of freedom. The Impulse response analysis and the Variance Decomposition analysis confirmed interlinkages among the regions studied. This result implies that the growth generated by different energy and mineral resources are interconnected. Furthermore, the energy transition taking place in Megalopoli and West Macedonia, where the two greatest lignite industries were located until recently, affects the growth generated by energy and resource exploitation for all the other peripheries, according to our findings. The novelty of the present work stands on the concept to detect interlinkages of energy and resources-based growth for the peripheries in Greece with the assistance of the Bayesian Var. The results of the present work are significant, since our findings suggest to policy makers tools to promote economic growth generated by energy based on alternative energy sources, including the environmentally friendly ones, by taking into consideration the interlinkages established by the existing infrastructure and the conventional energy sources used.

Exploring the Dynamic Nexus Among Economic Growth, Industrialization, Medical Technology, and Healthcare Expenditure: A PMG-ARDL Panel Data Analysis on Income-Level Classification Along West African Economies

This article explored the dynamic nexus among economic growth, industrialization, medical technology, and healthcare expenditure in West Africa while using urbanization and aged population as control variables. West African countries were sub-sectioned into low-income (LI) and lower-middle-income (LMI) countries. Panel data extracted from the World Development Indicators (WDI) from 2000 to 2019 were used for the study. More modern econometric techniques that are vigorous to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity were employed in the analytical process in order to provide accurate and trustworthy results. The homogeneity test and cross-sectional dependency test confirmed the studied panels to be heterogeneous and cross-sectionally dependent, respectively. Moreover, the CADF and CIPS unit root tests showed that the variables were not integrated in the same order. This, thus, leads to the employment of the PMG-ARDL estimation approach, which unveiled economic growth and urbanization as trivial determinants of healthcare expenditure in the LI and LMI panels. However, the results affirmed industrialization as a major determinant of healthcare expenditure in the LI and LMI panels. Additionally, medical technology was confirmed to decrease healthcare expenditure in the LMI panel, whereas in the LI panel, an insignificant impact was witnessed. Also, the aged population was found to intensify healthcare expenditure in both the LI and LMI panels. Lastly, on the causal connection between the series, the outcome revealed a mixture of causal paths among the variables in all the panels. Policy recommendations have therefore been proposed based on the study's findings.

Estimation of the cost-effective threshold of a quality-adjusted life year in China based on the value of statistical life

Cost-effective threshold (CET) is essential for health technology assessment and decision-making based on health economic evaluations. Recently, it has been argued that the commonly used once and three times of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita CETs of a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) are not necessarily empirically supported in all countries. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the CET of a QALY as times of GDP per capita in China, of which the reimbursement coverage decisions are increasingly engaging economic evaluations. Estimates on the value of statistical life (VSL) in China were identified from several studies in the literature and converted to times of GDP per capita, the weighted average of which was used for subsequent calculation. By pooling data on population mortality, health utility, and age distribution, we estimated the value of a statistical QALY (VSQ) from VSL using an established mathematical process, which represented the theoretical upper bound of CET. The corresponding point estimate and theoretical lower bound were obtained using their numerical relationships with the upper bound. Scenarios analyses were also conducted. The estimated CET, its upper bound, and its lower bound were 1.45, 2.90, and 1.16 times of GDP per capita in China, respectively. In different scenarios, the estimated CET varied but was greater than once GDP per capita in most cases. As such, the CET of a QALY in China is close to 1.5 times of GDP per capita, which should be benchmarked for future ICER-based coverage decisions.

Development of Elderly Life Quality Database in Thailand with a Correlation Feature Analysis

Understanding the context of the elderly is very important for determining guidelines that improve their quality of life. One problem in Thailand, in this context, is that each organization involved in caring for the elderly has its own separate data collection, resulting in mismatches that negatively affect government agencies in their monitoring. This study proposes the development of a central database for elderly care and includes a study of factors affecting their quality of life. The proposed system can be used to collect data, manage data, perform data analysis with multiple linear regression, and display results via a web application in visualizations of many forms, such as graphs, charts, and spatial data. In addition, our system would replace paper forms and increase efficiency in work, as well as in storage and processing. In an observational case study, we include 240 elderly in village areas 5, 6, 7, and 8, in the Makham Tia subdistrict, Muang district, Surat Thani province, Thailand. Data were analyzed with multiple linear regression to predict the level of quality of life by using other indicators in the data gathered. This model uses only 14 factors of the available 39. Moreover, this model has an accuracy of 86.55%, R-squared = 69.11%, p-Value < 2.2×10−16, and Kappa = 0.7994 at 95% confidence. These results can make subsequent data collection more comfortable and faster as the number of questions is reduced, while revealing with good confidence the level of quality of life of the elderly. In addition, the system has a central database that is useful for elderly care organizations in the community, in support of planning and policy setting for elderly care.

Are Healthcare Expenditures Related to Economic Growth in China? Bootstrap ARDL Approach

This study attempts to investigate whether healthcare expenditures (HCE) are related to economic growth in China using a newly developed Bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) test for China over the period of 1990–2019. To avoid omitted variable bias, we use the ratio of the population of 65 years old over the total population (aging ratio) as a control variable. Empirical result indicates that no cointegration among these three variables. Granger causality test based on Bootstrap ARDL model demonstrates that one-way Granger causality running from HCE to aging ratio and from economic growth to both HCE and aging ratio. Empirical results have important policy implications for China understudy

Geographical distinctions of longevity indicators and their correlation with climatic factors in the area where most Chinese Yao are distributed

Longevity research is a hot topic in the health field. Considerable research focuses on longevity phenomenon in Bama Yao Autonomous County, which has a typical karst landform and is located in Southwest China. This study aims to illustrate the spatial feature of longevity indicators in other Yao areas, to analyze the correlation between climatic factors and longevity indicators, and to provide new clues and targets for further longevity studies. We collect and integrate population, climate, and terrain data into a spatial database. The main analysis methods include spatial autocorrelation, high/low clustering, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). Two longevity clusters are identified in Guijiang River Basin (longevity index (LI%): 2.49 ± 0.63) and Liujiang River Basin (LI%: 2.13 ± 0.60). The spatial distribution of longevity indicators is autocorrelative (Moran's I = 0.652, p < 0.001) and clustered significantly (Z score = 4.268, p < 0.001). MGWR shows that the atmospheric pressure significantly affects the spatial distribution of LI% (estimate value (EV) =  - 0.566, p = 0.012), centenarity index (CI%) (EV =  - 0.425, p = 0.007), UC (EV =  - 0.502, p = 0.006), and CH (EV =  - 0.497, p = 0.007). Rainfall significantly affects the spatial distribution of LI% (EV = 0.300, p = 0.003) and CI% (EV =  - 0.191, p = 0.016). The spatial distribution of the main longevity indicators shows significant heterogeneity and autocorrelation, and they cluster in the Guijiang River and Liujiang River basins. Atmospheric pressure and rainfall may contribute to the longevity phenomenon through complex mechanisms. The longevity phenomenon in the Yao nationality in Guijiang River Basin requires further study to improve our understanding of the health effect of meteorological, environmental, and social conditions on longevity.

The effect of the universal two-child policy on medical insurance funds with a rapidly ageing population: evidence from China's urban and rural residents' medical insurance

Background

With the rapid growth of the ageing population, the operating burden of China’s basic medical insurance fund is becoming increasingly heavy. To counter rapid population ageing and ameliorate a series of problems, China has adjusted its fertility policies several times. On January 1, 2016, the universal two-child policy was implemented. This study analysed the impacts of the adjustment to the fertility policy and potential improvements in fertility intention on the insured population and medical insurance fund sustainability.

Methods

We used an actuarial science method and took the urban and rural residents’ basic medical insurance (URRBMI) of China, which covers most urban and rural residents, as an example to build a dynamic forecast model of population growth and a dynamic actuarial model of medical insurance funds.

Results

Compared with the original policy, under the current fertility intention (40%) with the universal two-child policy, the ageing of the population structure of URRBMI participants will decline significantly after 2026, and individuals aged 65 and over will account for only 19.01% of the total participants in 2050. The occurrence of the current deficit and accumulated deficit of the URRBMI fund will be postponed for one year to 2022 and 2028, respectively. If fertility intentions continue to rise, the ageing degree of the population structure will decrease, and the deficit would be further delayed.

Conclusions

The universal two-child policy is conducive to improving the degree of overall population ageing, delaying the occurrence of a URRBMI fund deficit, and improving the sustainability of URRBMI funds. If fertility intention increases, the effects would be stronger. However, since the adjustment of the universal two-child policy has a certain time lag, it will take time to demonstrate this impact. Therefore, while actively promoting the universal two-child policy, other measures should be taken, such as improving the fertility desire among couples of childbearing age and reforming medical insurance payment methods.

Does Industrial Air Pollution Increase Health Care Expenditure? Evidence From China

This paper discusses the impact of air pollution on medical expenditure in eastern, central, and western China by applying the fixed-effect model, random-effect model, and panel threshold regression model. According to theoretical and empirical analyses, there are different relationships between the two indexes in different regions of China. For eastern and central regions, it is obvious that the more serious the air pollution is, the more medical expenses there are. However, there is a non-linear single threshold effect between air pollution and health care expenditure in the western region. When air pollution is lower than this value, there is a negative correlation between them. Conversely, the health care expenditure increases with the aggravation of air pollution, but the added value is not enough to make up for the health problems caused by air pollution. The empirical results are basically consistent with the theoretical analysis, which can provide enlightenment for the government to consider the role of air pollution in medical expenditure. Policymakers should arrange the medical budget reasonably, according to its situation, to make up for the loss caused by air pollution.

Dynamics of Public Spending on Health and Socio-Economic Development in the European Union: An Analysis from the Perspective of the Sustainable Development Goals

In recent years, healthcare has become a fundamental pillar of the level of well-being of any society. With the aim of improving the lives of countries and societies, in 2015 the United Nations (UN) approved the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set out in the Agenda are health and well-being (O3) and the reduction of inequalities (O10). The general objective of this paper is to analyse the impact that the level of socioeconomic development, as well as the evolution of inequalities, have had on public spending on health in European Union countries. The research methodology is based on the application of a regression model and statistical techniques such as sigma convergence, beta convergence and the Gini index. We can see that the levels of public spending on health per capita, the level of socio-economic development and the degree of inequality are closely related in these countries. For this reason, we suggest maintaining sustainable economic growth to reduce the economic disparities between EU countries, and also the current differences in public spending on health per capita.