Joint spatial modeling of the risks of co-circulating mosquito-borne diseases in Ceará, Brazil

Zika, chikungunya and co-occurrence in Brazil: space-time clusters and associated environmental-socioeconomic factors

Chikungunya and Zika have been neglected as emerging diseases. This study aimed to analyze the space-time patterns of their occurrence and co-occurrence and their associated environmental and socioeconomic factors. Univariate (individually) and multivariate (co-occurrence) scans were analyzed for 608,388 and 162,992 cases of chikungunya and Zika, respectively. These occurred more frequently in the summer and autumn. The clusters with the highest risk were initially located in the northeast, dispersed to the central-west and coastal areas of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro (2018-2021), and then increased in the northeast (2019-2021). Chikungunya and Zika demonstrated decreasing trends of 13% and 40%, respectively, whereas clusters showed an increasing trend of 85% and 57%, respectively. Clusters with a high co-occurrence risk have been identified in some regions of Brazil. High temperatures are associated with areas at a greater risk of these diseases. Chikungunya was associated with low precipitation levels, more urbanized environments, and places with greater social inequalities, whereas Zika was associated with high precipitation levels and low sewage network coverage. In conclusion, to optimize the surveillance and control of chikungunya and Zika, this study's results revealed high-risk areas with increasing trends and priority months and the role of socioeconomic and environmental factors.