A revised scoring system utilizing serum alphafetoprotein levels to expand candidates for living donor transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma

Imaging-Derived Biomarkers Integrated with Clinical and Laboratory Values Predict Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation

Purpose

To investigate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) derived imaging biomarkers in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) and develop a predictive nomogram model.

Patients and Methods

This retrospective study included 178 patients with histopathologically confirmed HCC who underwent liver transplantation between 2007 and 2021 at the two academic liver centers. We evaluated dedicated imaging features from baseline multiphase contrast-enhanced CT supplemented by several clinical findings and laboratory parameters. Time-to-recurrence was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Univariable Cox proportional hazard regression and multivariable Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression were used to assess independent prognostic factors for recurrence. A nomogram model was then built based on the independent factors selected through LASSO regression, to predict the probabilities of HCC recurrence at one, three, and five years.

Results

The rate of HCC recurrence after LT was 17.4% (31 of 178). The LASSO analysis revealed six independent predictors associated with an elevated risk of tumor recurrence. These predictors included the presence of peritumoral enhancement, the presence of over three tumor lesions, the largest tumor diameter greater than 3 cm, serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels exceeding 400 ng/mL, and the presence of a tumor capsule. Conversely, a history of bridging therapies was found to be correlated with a reduced risk of HCC recurrence. In addition, Kaplan-Meier curves showed patients with irregular margin, satellite nodules, or small lesions displayed shorter time-to-recurrence. Our nomogram demonstrated good performance, yielding a C-index of 0.835 and AUC values of 0.86, 0.88, and 0.85 for the predictions of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year TTR, respectively.

Conclusion

Imaging parameters derived from baseline contrast-enhanced CT showing malignant behavior and aggressive growth patterns, along with serum AFP and history of bridging therapies, show potential as biomarkers for predicting HCC recurrence after transplantation.

Machine learning methods for accurately predicting survival and guiding treatment in stage I and II hepatocellular carcinoma

Accurately predicting survival in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is essential for making informed decisions about treatment and prognosis. Herein, we have developed a machine learning (ML) model that can predict patient survival and guide treatment decisions. We obtained patient demographic information, tumor characteristics, and treatment details from the SEER database. To analyze the data, we employed a Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model as well as 3 ML algorithms: neural network multitask logistic regression (N-MLTR), DeepSurv, and random survival forest (RSF). Our evaluation relied on the concordance index (C-index) and Integrated Brier Score (IBS). Additionally, we provided personalized treatment recommendations regarding surgery and chemotherapy choices and validated models' efficacy. A total of 1136 patients with early-stage (I, II) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent liver resection or transplantation were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 3:7. Feature selection was conducted using Cox regression analyses. The ML models (NMLTR: C-index = 0.6793; DeepSurv: C-index = 0.7028; RSF: C-index = 0.6890) showed better discrimination in predicting survival than the standard CoxPH model (C-index = 0.6696). Patients who received recommended treatments had higher survival rates than those who received unrecommended treatments. ML-based surgery treatment recommendations yielded higher hazard ratios (HRs): NMTLR HR = 0.36 (95% CI: 0.25-0.51, P < .001), DeepSurv HR = 0.34 (95% CI: 0.24-0.49, P < .001), and RSF HR = 0.37 (95% CI: 0.26-0.52, P = <.001). Chemotherapy treatment recommendations were associated with significantly improved survival for DeepSurv (HR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.4-0.82, P = .002) and RSF (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.46-0.94, P = .020). The ML survival model has the potential to benefit prognostic evaluation and treatment of HCC. This novel analytical approach could provide reliable information on individual survival and treatment recommendations.

The Landscape Of Alpha Fetoprotein In Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Where Are We?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death among cirrhosis patients. Difficulties in early diagnosis and heterogeneity are obstacles to effective treatment, especially for advanced HCC. Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the best therapy for HCC. Although many biomarkers are being proposed, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), which was identified over 60 years ago, remains the most utilized. Recently, much hope has been placed in the immunogenicity of AFP to develop novel therapies, such as AFP vaccines and AFP-specific adoptive T-cell transfer (ACT). This review summarizes the performance of AFP as a biomarker for HCC diagnosis and prognosis, as well as its correlation with molecular classes. In addition, the role of AFP in LT is also described. Finally, we highlight the mechanism and application prospects of two immune therapies (AFP vaccine and ACT) for HCC. In general, our review points out the prevalence of AFP in HCC, accompanied by some controversies and novel directions for future research.

Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence after Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an increasingly important indication for liver transplantation (LT) worldwide. However, LT in the setting of liver cancer is burdened by the risk of tumor recurrence. The prognosis of patients with post-LT HCC recurrence is still very poor and several areas of uncertainty remain in the management of these patients. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of available evidence regarding the management of HCC recurrence after LT, starting from the pre- and post-transplant stratification criteria and encompassing post-LT surveillance, preventive strategies and treatment. Much work has been done in the last several years but further effort is still needed in order to improve the outcome of these patients.

Abstract

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT), occurring in 10–15% of cases, is a major concern. A lot of work has been done in order to refine the selection of LT candidates with HCC and to improve the outcome of patients with recurrence. Despite this, the prognosis of these patients remains poor, partly due to the several areas of uncertainty in their management. Even if surveillance for HCC recurrence is crucial for early detection, there is currently no evidence to support a specific and cost-effective post-LT surveillance strategy. Concerning preventive measures, consensus on the best immunosuppressive drugs has not been reached and not enough data to support adjuvant therapy are present. Several therapeutic approaches (surgical, locoregional and systemic treatments) are available in case of recurrence, but there are still few data in the post-LT setting. Moreover, the use of immune checkpoint inhibitors is controversial in transplant recipients considered the risk of rejection. In this paper, the available evidence on the management of HCC recurrence after LT is comprehensively reviewed, considering pre- and post-transplant risk stratification, post-transplant surveillance, preventive strategies and treatment options.

Immunological Markers, Prognostic Factors and Challenges Following Curative Treatments for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortalities worldwide. Patients with early-stage HCC are eligible for curative treatments, such as surgical resection, liver transplantation (LT) and percutaneous ablation. Although curative treatments provide excellent long-term survival, almost 70–80% of patients experience HCC recurrence after curative treatments. Tumor-related factors, including tumor size, number and differentiation, and underlying liver disease, are well-known risk factors for recurrence following curative therapies. Moreover, the tumor microenvironment (TME) also plays a key role in the recurrence of HCC. Many immunosuppressive mechanisms, such as an increase in regulatory T cells and myeloid-derived suppressor cells with a decrease in cytotoxic T cells, are implicated in HCC recurrence. These suppressive TMEs are also modulated by several factors and pathways, including mammalian target of rapamycin signaling, vascular endothelial growth factor, programmed cell death protein 1 and its ligand 1. Based on these mechanisms and the promising results of immune checkpoint blockers (ICBs) in advanced HCC, there have been several ongoing adjuvant studies using a single or combination of ICB following curative treatments in HCC. In this review, we strive to provide biologic and immunological markers, prognostic factors, and challenges associated with clinical outcomes after curative treatments, including resection, LT and ablation.

Hepatocellular cancer selection systems and liver transplantation: from the tower of babel to an ideal comprehensive score

The Milan criteria (MC) remain the cornerstone for the selection of patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) to be listed for liver transplantation (LT). Recently, several expanded criteria have been proposed to increase the transplantability of HCC patients without compromising their (oncologic) outcome. This paper aims to systematically review the different reported HCC-LT selection systems looking thereby at their ability to increase the number of transplantable patients and the overall survival and oncological outcome. A systematic review of the literature covering the period 1993 (date of the first reported HCC-LT selection system)–2021 identified 59 different inclusion criteria of HCC for LT. Among the 59 studies reporting HCC-LT selection systems, 15 (28.3%) were exclusively based on morphological aspects of the tumor; 29 (54.7%) included biologic, seven (13.2%) radiological, and two (3.8%) only included pathological tumor features. Overall, 31% more patients could be transplanted when adhering to the new HCC-LT selection systems. Despite the increased number of LT, 5-year patient and disease-free survival rates were similar between MC-IN and MC-OUT/new HCC-LT-IN criteria. A careful extension of the inclusion criteria should allow many more patients to access a potentially curative LT without compromising their outcome. The development of a widely accepted “comprehensive” HCC-LT Score able to offer a fair chance of justified transplantation to more patients should become a priority within the liver transplant community. Further studies are needed to develop internationally accepted, expanded selection criteria for liver transplantation of HCC patients.

Efficacy of Local Therapy for Oligometastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis

Purpose

With respect to various solid cancers, patients with oligometastasis may benefit from local therapy. However, this approach is not widely accepted for hepatocellular carcinoma. This study investigated the efficacy of local therapy for oligometastatic lesions in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Patients and Methods

The study included 69 hepatocellular carcinoma patients presenting with oligometastasis to the lung. Characteristics of the patients and treatment options for metastatic lesions were reviewed, and a survival analysis was performed. After propensity score matching, overall survival and progression-free survival were calculated from the time of pulmonary metastasis detection. Factors predicting prognosis were analyzed using a multivariate Cox regression analysis.

Results

After propensity score matching, 58 patients with Child-Pugh grade A disease were selected. Among them, 22 patients were treated with systemic therapy alone while 36 patients received local therapy or a combination of local and systemic therapies for metastatic lesions. Survival rates were higher in patients receiving local therapy than in those receiving systemic therapy (2-year overall survival rate, 66.6 vs 31.2%, p<0.001; 2-year progression-free survival rate, 47.0 vs 10.6%, p=0.005). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, alpha-fetoprotein levels less than 400 ng/mL and the use of local therapy for metastatic lesions were found to be significant favorable prognostic factors.

Conclusion

Local therapy for metastatic lesions improved the oncologic outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma with pulmonary oligometastasis.

Comparison between Milan and UCSF criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Liver transplantation is the main treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, because of the limited supply of transplant organs, it is necessary to adopt a criterion that selects patients who will achieve adequate survival after transplantation. The aim of this review is to compare the two main staging criteria of HCC for the indication of liver transplantation (Milan and UCSF) and to analyze the post-transplantation survival rate at 1, 3 and 5 years.

Methods

This is a systematic review and meta-analysis in which scientific articles from 5 databases (PubMed, Lilacs, Embase, Central, and Cinahl) were analyzed. The studies included in the review consisted of liver transplantation in patients with HCC in different subgroups according to donor type (deceased × living), population (eastern × western) and tumor evaluation (radiological × pathological) and adopted the Milan or UCSF criteria for the indication of the procedure.

Results

There was no significant difference between the Milan and UCSF criteria in the overall survival rate at 1, 3 or 5 years, and the overall estimated value found was 1.03 [0.90, 1.17] at 1 year, 1.06 [0.96, 1.16] at 3 years and 1.04 [0.96, 1.12] at 5 years. Regarding the analysis of the subgroups, no significant difference was observed in any of the subgroups with a follow-up of 1, 3 or 5 years.

Conclusions

Both the Milan and UCSF criteria have equivalent survival rate. Thus, less restrictive method would not result in a great loss in the final overall survival rate and would benefit a greater number of patients.

Changes in Tumor Markers and Their Implications in Selecting Liver Transplantation for Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

It has been suggested that tumor markers can provide additional information over tumor size and number-based liver transplantation (LT) criteria. We aimed to assess if changes in tumor markers are associated with the risk of tumor recurrence after LT for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received loco-regional therapies (LRTs).

METHODS

A total of 129 patients who received LT with pre-LT LRTs for HCC were analyzed. Milan criteria and tumor markers, alpha-fetoprotein, and protein induced by vitamin K antagonist II, at diagnosis and at transplant were assessed. The primary outcome was tumor recurrence.

RESULTS

When patients were stratified by radiologic criteria, cumulative recurrence rates at 3 years for patients who were not down-staged (outside Milan to outside Milan), progressed (within Milan to outside Milan), down-staged (outside Milan to within Milan), and bridged (within Milan to within Milan) were 66.7%, 58.3%, 18.7%, and 8.5%, respectively (P < .001). Among patients who were transplanted within Milan criteria at transplant (n = 113), cumulative recurrence rates at 3 years were highest for those with persistently high tumor markers (high to high, 21.7%), followed by those with increase in tumor markers (low to high, 11.1%), those with normalization of tumor markers (high to low, 5.6%), and those with persistently low tumor markers (low to low, 0%), respectively, after LRTs (P = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes of tumor markers can provide additional information on the risk of recurrence after LT among HCC patients who received LRTs, indicating that they could be used to refine current LT selection criteria.

Developments in predictive biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma therapy

Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary tumor of the liver and the third largest cause of cancer-relateddeaths worldwide. Potentially curative treatments (surgical resection, radiofrequency or liver transplantation) are only available for few patients, while transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or systemic agents are the best treatments for intermediate and advanced stage disease. The identification of markers that allow us to choose the best treatment for the patient is urgent.Areas covered: In this review we summarize the potential biological markers to predict the efficacy of all treatment available in patients with HCC and discuss anew biomarker with ahigher potential of success in the next future.Expert opinion: HCC is aheterogeneous disease. Tumors are heterogeneous in terms of genetic alteration,with spatial heterogeneity in cellular density, necrosis and angiogenesis.This heterogeneity may affect prognosis and treatment. Tumor heterogeneity can be difficult to quantify with traditional imaging due to subjective assessment of images; the same for sampling biopsy, which evaluates only asmall part of the tumor. We think that combining multi-OMICSwith radiomics represents apromising strategy for evaluating tumor heterogenicity and for identifying biomarkers of response and prognosis.

Biology and significance of alpha-fetoprotein in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths globally due, in part, to the majority of patients being diagnosed with intermediate or advanced stage disease. Our increased understanding of the heterogeneous molecular pathogenesis of HCC has led to significant developments in novel targeted therapies. Despite these advances, there remains a high unmet need for new treatment options. HCC is a complex disease with multiple pathogenic mechanisms caused by a variety of risk factors, making it difficult to characterize with a single biomarker. In fact, numerous biomarkers have been studied in HCC, but alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) remains the most widely used and accepted serum marker since its discovery over 60 years ago. This review summarizes the most relevant studies associated with the regulation of AFP at the gene and protein levels; the pathophysiology of AFP as a pro-proliferative protein; and the correlation of AFP with molecular HCC subclasses, the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and angiogenesis. Also described are the historical and current uses of AFP for screening and surveillance, diagnosis, its utility as a prognostic and predictive biomarker and its role as a tumour antigen in HCC. Taken together, these data demonstrate the relevance of AFP for patients with HCC and identify several remaining questions that will benefit from future research.

Comparison of Models for Tumor Recurrence after Liver Transplantation for the Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Long-Term Follow-Up Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Several models have been developed to predict tumor the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation besides the conventional Milan criteria (MC), including the MoRAL score. This study aimed to compare the prognostication power of the MoRAL score to most models designed so far in the Eastern and Western countries.

METHODS

This study included 564 patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in three large-volume hospitals in Korea. The primary and secondary endpoints were time-to-recurrence, and overall survival (OS), respectively. The performance of the MoRAL score was compared with those of other various Liver transplantation (LT) criteria, including the Milan criteria, University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, up-to-seven criteria, Kyoto criteria, AFP model, total tumor volume/AFP criteria, Metroticket 2.0 model, and Weill Cornell Medical College group model.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 78.1 months. Among all models assessed, the MoRAL score showed the best discrimination function for predicting the risk of tumor recurrence after LT, with c-index of 0.78, compared to other models (all p < 0.001). The MoRAL score also represented the best calibration function by Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.15). Especially in the beyond-MC sub-cohort, the MoRAL score predicted tumor recurrence (c-index, 0.80) and overall survival (OS) (c-index, 0.70) significantly better than any other models (all p < 0.001). When the MoRAL score was low (<314.8), the five-year cumulative risks of tumor recurrence and death were excellent in beyond-MC (27.8%, and 20.5%, respectively) and within-MC (16.3%, and 21.1%, respectively) sub-cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The MoRAL score provides the most refined prognostication for predicting HCC recurrence after LDLT.

Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma recurrences: A data-driven multiclass classification method incorporating latent variables

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a malignant form of cancer, is frequently treated with surgical resections, which have relatively high recurrence rates. Effective recurrence predictions enable physicians' timely detections and adequate therapeutic measures that can greatly improve patient care and outcomes. Toward that end, predictions of early versus late HCC recurrences should be considered separately to reflect their distinct onset time horizons, clinical causes, underlying clinical etiology, and pathogenesis. We propose a novel Bayesian network-based method to predict different HCC recurrence outcomes by considering the respective recurrence evolution paths. Typical patient information obtained in early stages is insufficiently informative to predict recurrence outcomes accurately, due to the lack of subsequent patient progression information. Our method alleviates such information deficiency constraints by incorporating an independent latent variable, dominant recurrence type, to regulate recurrence outcome predictions (early, late, or no recurrence). We use a real-world HCC data set to evaluate the proposed method, relative to three prevalent benchmark techniques. Overall, the results show that our method consistently and significantly outperforms all the benchmark techniques in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measures. For increased robustness, we use another data set to perform an out-of-sample evaluation and obtain similar results. This study thus contributes to HCC recurrence research and offers several implications for clinical practice.

Role of Allelic Imbalance in Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) Recurrence Risk After Liver Transplant

Background

One of the most controversial problems for liver transplantation in patients affected by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains the lack of an oncologic staging system to predict cancer recurrence after liver transplantation (LT). We analyzed allelic imbalance (AI) in 19 microsatellites, and assessed the post-LT HCC recurrence risk.

Material/Methods

Seventy-one patients were included; 18 had tumor recurrence within 5 years post-transplant. Molecular analysis was done in the primary HCC and peripheral blood samples: a total of 19 microsatellites was used to assess AI. Specific AI was evaluated when outside of range value between 0.66 and 1.5. Based on data in the literature, we grouped the 19 microsatellites into 4 panels. We calculated the fractional allelic imbalance (FAI) to make comparisons between different panels including different subsets of microsatellites.

Results

We report that AI was associated with HCC recurrence in 3 main loci (D3S2303, D9S251, and D9S254). Tumor recurrence was associated only with 2 specific panels with 9 microsatellites previously reported to be associated with high risk for HCC recurrence. Our data show that fractional allelic imbalance (FAI) index has good negative ability to predict HCC recurrence (Panel 2: negative predictive value of 95%).

Conclusions

AI analysis could have prognostic value in risk management of HCC recurrence after LT, especially for early recurrence.

Validated model for prediction of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation in Asian population

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is regarded as the best treatment for both primary and recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Post-transplant HCC recurrence rate is relatively low but significant, ranging from 10%-30% according to different series. When recurrence happens, it is usually extrahepatic and associated with poor prognosis. A predictive model that allows patient stratification according to recurrence risk can help to individualize post-transplant surveillance protocol and guidance of the use of anti-tumor immunosuppressive agents.

AIM

To develop a scoring system to predict HCC recurrence after LT in an Asian population.

METHODS

Consecutive patients having LT for HCC from 1995 to 2016 at our hospital were recruited. They were randomized into the training set and the validation set in a 60:40 ratio. Multivariable Cox regression model was used to identity factors associated with HCC recurrence. A risk score was assigned to each factor according to the odds ratio. Accuracy of the score was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

In total, 330 patients were eligible for analysis (183 in training and 147 in validation). Recurrent HCC developed in 14.2% of them. The median follow-up duration was 65.6 mo. The 5-year disease-free and overall survival rates were 78% and 80%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein > 400 ng/mL [P = 0.012, hazard ratio (HR) 2.92], sum of maximum tumor size and number (P = 0.013, HR 1.15), and salvage LT (P = 0.033, HR 2.08) were found to be independent factors for disease-free survival. A risk score was calculated for each patient with good discriminatory power (c-stat 0.748 and 0.85, respectively, in the training and validation sets). With the derived scores, patients were classified into low- (0–9), moderate- (> 9–14), and high-risk groups (> 14), and the risk of HCC recurrence in the training and validation sets was 10%, 20%, 54% (c-stat 0.67) and 4%, 22%, 62% (c-stat 0.811), accordingly. The risk stratification model was validated with chi-squared goodness-of-fit test (P = 0.425).

CONCLUSION

A validated predictive model featuring alpha-fetoprotein, salvage LT, and the sum of largest tumor diameter and total number of tumor nodule provides simple and reliable guidance for individualizing postoperative surveillance strategy.

Serum biomarkers and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only potentially curative treatment for selected patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are not candidates for resection. When the Milan criteria are strictly applied, 75% to 85%of 3- to 4-year actuarial survival rates are achieved, but up to 20% of the patients experience HCC recurrence after transplantation. The Milan criteria are based on the preoperative tumor macromorphology, tumor size and number on computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging that neither correlate well with posttransplant histological study of the liver explant nor accurately predict HCC recurrence after LT, since they do not include objective measures of tumor biology. Preoperative biological markers, including alpha-fetoprotein, des-gamma-carboxiprothrombin or neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, can predict the risk for HCC recurrence after transplantation. These biomarkers have been proposed as surrogate markers of tumor differentiation and vascular invasion, with varied risk magnitudes depending on the defined cutoffs. Different studies have shown that the combination of one or several biomarkers integrated into prognostic models predict the risk of HCC recurrence after LT more accurately than Milan criteria alone. In this review, we focus on the potential utility of these serum biological markers to improve the performance of Milan criteria to identify patients at high risk of tumoral recurrence after LT.

Patterns of Discordance Between Pretransplant Imaging Stage of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Posttransplant Pathologic Stage: A Contemporary Appraisal of the Milan Criteria

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exceeding Milan criteria on explant pathology are at increased risk of recurrence and death. Discordance between contemporary magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and explant pathology, and preoperative characteristics predictive of discordance are not well understood.

METHODS

Patients who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation for HCC after preoperative MRI were identified in a prospectively collected institutional database (January 2003 to December 2013). Patients were dichotomized to "within" or "outside" Milan criteria by both imaging and explant pathologic evaluation. Binary logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier methodology were used to identify independent predictors of imaging/pathologic discordance and its impact on posttransplant survival.

RESULTS

Of 318 patients with HCC meeting Milan criteria by MRI at the time of orthotopic liver transplantation, 248 (78.0%) remained within a pathological correlate of Milan criteria on explant examination. Understaging was associated with worse median recurrence-free survival (64.0 months vs 140.0 months, P = 0.002) and overall survival (96.0 months vs 143.0 months, P = 0.005), and did not vary between patients exceeding criteria due to tumor explant greater than 5 cm, more than 3 tumor foci, or a tumor greater than 3 cm in the setting of multifocality. Discordance was independently associated with an increasing serum alpha fetal protein level (odds ratio, 2.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.37-5.79; P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Underestimating HCC burden before liver transplant remains frequent despite contemporary imaging technologies. Patients with an increasing alpha fetal protein before transplantation may benefit from more frequent testing or novel neoadjuvant therapies.

Advances in predicting the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma recipients after liver transplantation

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent malignant tumors worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT) is known as a curative and therapeutic modality. However, the survival rates of recipients after LT are still not good enough because of tumor recurrence. To improve the survival rates of recipients after LT, identifying predictive factors for prognosis after LT and establishing a model assessing prognosis are very important to HCC patients. There has recently been a lot of clinical and basic research on recurrence and prognosis after LT. Progress has been made, especially in selection criteria for LT recipients and risk factors for predicting prognosis after LT. Hangzhou criteria, in line with China's high current incidence rate of primary liver, are first proposed by Chinese scholars of LT, and are accepted world-wide, and make an important contribution to the development of LT.

Patient Selection by Tumor Markers in Liver Transplantation for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Although far advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is generally considered a contraindication for liver transplantation (LT), biologically favorable tumors among them could show acceptable results. However, it is still unclear which tumors can be treated with LT. Data were collected on adult patients who underwent LT for HCC beyond the Milan criteria in 8 Korean LT centers between January 2000 and June 2013. Far advanced HCC was defined as HCC with the largest tumor ≥ 10 cm, 10 or more tumor nodules, or accompanying macrovascular invasion. A total of 688 patients, including 169 with far advanced HCC, were enrolled in this study. The 5-year overall and recurrence-free survival rates were 60.4% and 55.1%, respectively, for all patients but only 28.7% and 24.8%, respectively, for patients with far advanced HCC (P < 0.001). Both preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II) were significant risk factors for HCC recurrence after LT. In particular, AFP + PIVKA-II combined was a better predictor than either marker alone. Of all far advanced HCC patients with available AFP and PIVKA-II levels, 45 (30.8%) had low AFP + PIVKA-II (≤300) and their 5-year overall and recurrence-free survival rate were 47.8% and 53.4%, respectively, which were acceptable and significantly superior to those of patients with AFP (ng/mL) + PIVKA-II (nAU/mL) > 300 (21.0% and 10.8%, respectively; P < 0.001). In conclusion, patients with favorable HCC had acceptable outcomes after LT even when their tumors were extremely advanced. AFP + PIVKA-II gave reliable information about the tumor biology of far advanced HCC. Liver Transplantation 00 000-000 2018 AASLD.

Hangzhou criteria are more accurate than Milan criteria in predicting long-term survival after liver transplantation for HCC in Germany

BACKGROUND

Milan criteria are used for patient selection in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hangzhou criteria have been shown in China to enable access to liver transplantation for more patients when compared to Milan criteria without negative effects on long-term survival. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Hangzhou criteria in a German cohort.

METHODS

One hundred fifty-nine patients transplanted for HCC between 1975 and 2010 were investigated. Patients were categorized into four groups depending on the fulfillment of Milan and Hangzhou criteria. General and tumor baseline characteristics were compared. Overall and tumor-free survival rates were investigated with the Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

One-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates for patients fulfilling Milan criteria (n = 68) were 89.7, 83.7, 75.8, and 62.1%, respectively, versus 89.8, 82.2, 75.2, and 62.6% for patients fulfilling Hangzhou criteria (n = 109) (p = 0.833). When comparing patients exceeding Milan or Hangzhou criteria, survival rates were 75.3, 53.2, 48.1, and 41.1% versus 63.3, 31.4, 26.9, and 22.1%, respectively (p = 0.019). The comparison of tumor-free survival rates in patients fulfilling Milan or Hangzhou criteria was statistically not significant (p = 0.785), whereas the comparison of the groups exceeding the criteria showed significantly worse survival for patients outside Hangzhou criteria (p = 0.007). The proportion of patients fulfilling Hangzhou criteria (68.6%) was significantly larger as compared to the proportion fulfilling Milan criteria (42.8%) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Hangzhou criteria are more accurate in predicting long-term survival after liver transplantation for HCC in Germany. Deployment of the Hangzhou criteria for patient selection could enlarge the pool of transplantable patients.

Clinical usefulness of transarterial chemoembolization response prior to liver transplantation as predictor of optimal timing for living donor liver transplantation

Purpose

Response to preoperative transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) has been recommended as a biological selection criterion for liver transplantation (LT). The aim of our study was to identify optimal timing of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) after TACE based on the TACE response.

Methods

We performed a retrospective study to assess recurrence in 128 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent LDLT following sequential TACE from January 2002 to March 2015 at a single institute. Cox proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier analysis were utilized to estimate HCC recurrence and find optimal timing for LDLT.

Results

Seventy-three and 61 patients were divided as the responder and nonresponder, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed independent pre-liver transplantation (pre-LT) predictors of recurrence were larger sized tumor (>3 cm, P = 0.024), nonresponse to TACE (P = 0.031), vascular invasion (P = 0.002), and extrahepatic nodal involvement (P = 0.001). In the 3-month time difference between last pre-LT TACE and LDLT subgroup, TACE responders showed significantly higher adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of recurrence free survival (aHR, 6.284; P = 0.007), cancer specific survival (aHR, 7.033; P = 0.016), and overall survival (aHR, 7.055; P = 0.005). Moreover, for overall patients and responder groups, the significant time difference between last pre-LT TACE and LDLT was 2 months in the minimum P-value approach.

Conclusion

In selected patients who showed good response to pre-LT TACE, a shorter time interval between TACE and LDLT may be associated with higher recurrence free survival, cancer specific survival, and overall survival.

Significance of preoperative fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography in prediction of tumor recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a Japanese multicenter study

BACKGROUND

In the present study, we conducted a multicenter nationwide survey to investigate the effects of preoperative fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) on the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

From 16 Japanese LT centers, data were collected on 182 recipients with HCC who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) between February 2005 and November 2013. PET-positive status was defined as increased uptake of FDG in the tumor compared to the surrounding non-tumor liver tissue. The median follow-up after LDLT was 54.5 months (range 1-125 months).

RESULTS

Postoperative HCC recurrence occurred in 23 patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that exceeding the Milan criteria (MC), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level ≥115 ng/ml, and PET-positive status were significant and independent risk factors for recurrence. In the over-MC group, a subgroup of patients with AFP level <115 ng/ml and PET-negative status (n = 22) had a significantly lower 5-year recurrence rate than the other patients (n = 27, 19% vs. 53%, P = 0.019).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that preoperative FDG-PET status offers additional information on HCC recurrence risk after LT. Over-MC patients with PET-negative status and lower AFP level may achieve successful outcome comparable to that of within-MC patients.

Radiological response and inflammation scores predict tumour recurrence in patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization before liver transplantation

AIM

To investigate the prognostic value of the radiological response after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and inflammatory markers in patients affected by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) awaiting liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated the preoperative predictors of HCC recurrence in 70 patients treated with conventional (n = 16) or doxorubicin-eluting bead TACE (n = 54) before LT. The patient and tumour characteristics, including the static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) measurements, were recorded. Treatment response was classified according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (mRECIST) and the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) criteria as complete response (CR), partial response (PR), stable disease or progressive disease. After examination of the explanted livers, histological necrosis was classified as complete (100% of the cumulative tumour area), partial (50%-99%) or minimal (< 50%) and was correlated with the preoperative radiological findings.

RESULTS

According to the pre-TACE radiological evaluation, 22/70 (31.4%) and 12/70 (17.1%) patients were beyond Milan and University of San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, respectively. After TACE procedures, the objective response (CR + PR) rates were 71.4% and 70.0% according to mRECIST and EASL criteria, respectively. The agreement between the two guidelines in defining the radiological response was rated as very good both for the overall and target lesion response (weighted k-value: 0.98 and 0.93, respectively). Complete and partial histological necrosis were achieved in 14/70 (20.0%) and 28/70 (40.0%) patients, respectively. Using histopathology as the reference standard, mRECIST criteria correctly classified necrosis in 72.9% (51/70) of patients and EASL criteria in 68.6% (48/70) of cases. The mRECIST non-response to TACE [Exp(b) = 9.2, p = 0.012], exceeding UCSF criteria before TACE [Exp(b) = 4.7, p = 0.033] and a preoperative PLR > 150 [Exp(b) = 5.9, p = 0.046] were independent predictors of tumour recurrence.

CONCLUSION

The radiological response and inflammatory markers are predictive of tumour recurrence and allow the proper selection of TACE-treated candidates for LT.

Macrovascular invasion is not an absolute contraindication for living donor liver transplantation

The indication of liver transplantation (LT) for the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is expanding. However, portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) has been still accepted as an absolute contraindication. We experienced an unexpectedly good prognosis in selected patients. Therefore, we tried to identify the prognostic factors after LT for HCC with major PVTT. Among 282 patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) for HCC from January 2009 to December 2013, 11 (3.9%) patients with major PVTT that was preoperatively diagnosed were investigated. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival rates were 63.6%, 45.5%, and 45.5%, respectively, and all recurrent cases showed intrahepatic and extrahepatic recurrence. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 72.7%, 63.6%, and 63.6%, respectively, and 2 patients with delayed recurrence survived approximately 5 years after LT. Main portal vein (PV) invasion (P < 0.01), high alpha-fetoprotein × protein induced by vitamin K absence/antagonist-II (AP) score (≥20,000; P < 0.01), high standardized uptake value (SUV) ratio (tumor/background liver) in positron emission tomography (≥2.1; P < 0.01), and a large original tumor (≥7 cm; P = 0.03) were significant risk factors for recurrence. In conclusion, if the PVTT has not expanded to the main PV and the AP score is not high, we can consider LDLT as a curative treatment option. Liver Transplantation 23:19-27 2017 AASLD.

Living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma in Seoul National University

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation is an effective treatment modality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Due to deceased organ shortage, living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) accounts for the majority of liver transplants in Korea. The aim of this study is to evaluate the recent trend of LDLT for HCC, and to suggest guidelines and criteria for selecting the appropriate candidates for LDLT.

METHODS

Between January 2000 and December 2015, 532 patients underwent LDLT for HCC. Clinicopathologic data were analyzed as well as overall survival rate (SR) and disease-free survival rate (DFSR) according to the Milan criteria based on explant pathology, positron emission tomography (PET) positivity, and serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level.

RESULTS

The 5-year overall SR and DFSR were 81.5% and 75.5% respectively. According to our previously reported combination of AFP and PET [Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) criteria]; low risk group [AFP <200 ng/mL, PET (-)], intermediate risk group [AFP >200 ng/mL, PET (-) or AFP <200 ng/mL, PET (+)], and high risk group [AFP >200 ng/mL, PET (+)], the 5-year DFSR of low risk group was 86.1%, intermediate risk group was 79.0%, and high risk group was 18.5% (P<0.001). Within the Milan criteria, the 5-year DFSR of low risk group was 88.4%, intermediate risk group was 79.9%, and high risk group was 60.0% (P=0.016). Beyond the Milan criteria, the 5-year DFSR of low, intermediate, and high risk group was 80.3%, 77.7%, and 9.1%, respectively (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, our data and experience suggest that a continued paradigm shift from a conventional size based criteria to a biological marker based criteria is indicated when evaluating LDLT candidates with HCC.

Liver transplantation for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

There has been ongoing debate that the Milan criteria may be too strict that a significant number of patients who could benefit from liver transplantation (LT) might have been excluded. Based on this idea, various studies have been conducted to further expand the Milan criteria and give more HCC patients a chance of cure. In deceased donor LT (DDLT) setting, expansion of the criteria is relatively tempered because the results of LT for HCC should be comparable to those of patients with non-malignant indications. On the other hand, in living donor LT (LDLT) situation, liver grafts are not public resources. The acceptable target outcomes for LDLT might be much lower than those for DDLT. Patients with biologically favorable tumors might have excellent survivals after LT despite morphological advanced HCCs. Therefore, the significance and utility of biological tumor parameters for selecting suitable LT candidates have been increased to predict HCC recurrence after LT. Although there is no consensus regarding the use of prognostic biomarkers in LT selection criteria for HCC, the combination of conventional morphological parameters and new promising biomarkers could help us refine and expand the LT criteria for HCC in the near future.

Expansion of the criteria for living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Several expanded criteria for liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been suggested out of concern that the Milan criteria may be too strict, and thereby exclude patients who could benefit from this surgical procedure. However, most expanded criteria were designed for deceased donor liver transplantation. Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) differs from that of deceased donor liver transplantation primarily because LDLT liver grafts are not public resources.

RECENT FINDINGS

In Asian countries, where HCC is endemic, LDLT is the main currently available treatment option for HCC. High-volume LDLT centers throughout Asia have adopted their own expanded selection criteria for LDLT for HCC with acceptable long-term results. Some centers utilize tumor markers as one of the criterion to help select suitable candidates. Indeed, such adjunctive biomarkers may have prognostic relevance for patients with HCC. The use of both biological and histomorphologic parameters may increase the number of transplantable patients.

SUMMARY

The overall chance of survival, and recipient/donor preferences as well as the risk of recurrence are considered in the LDLT setting. Therefore, the selection criteria for liver transplantation for HCC could benefit from expansion for LDLT.

Serum Tumor Markers Provide Refined Prognostication in Selecting Liver Transplantation Candidate for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Beyond the Milan Criteria

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a model to predict tumor recurrence after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) (MoRAL) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria (MC).

BACKGROUND

Some subgroups of HCC exceeding the MC experience substantial benefit from LDLT.

METHODS

This multicenter study included a total of 566 consecutive patients who underwent LDLT in Korea: the beyond-MC cohort (n = 205, the derivation [n = 92] and validation [n = 113] sets) and the within-MC cohort (n = 361). The primary endpoint was time-to-recurrence.

RESULTS

Using multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, we derived the MoRAL score using serum levels of protein induced by vitamin K absence-II and alpha-fetoprotein, which provided a good discriminant function on time-to-recurrence (concordance index = 0.88). Concordance index was maintained similarly on both internal and external validations (mean 0.87 and 0.84, respectively). At cut off of 314.8 (75th percentile value), a low MoRAL score (≤314.8) was associated with significantly longer recurrence-free (versus > 314.8, HR = 5.29, P < 0.001) and overall survivals (HR = 2.59, P = 0.001) in the beyond-MC cohort. The 5-year recurrence-free and overall survival rates of beyond-MC patients with a low MoRAL score were as high as 66.3% and 82.6%, respectively. The within-MC patients with a high MoRAL score showed a higher risk of recurrence than beyond-MC patients with a low MoRAL score (HR = 2.56, P = 0.035). The MoRAL score was significantly correlated with explant histology.

CONCLUSIONS

This new model using protein induced by vitamin K absence-II and alpha-fetoprotein provides refined prognostication. Among beyond-MC HCC patients, those with a MoRAL score ≤314.8 and without extrahepatic metastasis might be potential candidates for LDLT.

The Warsaw Proposal for the Use of Extended Selection Criteria in Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Cancer

BACKGROUND

Combination of the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) and the up-to-7 criteria with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) cutoff of 100 ng/ml was proposed as the Warsaw expansion of the Milan criteria in selection of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) patients for liver transplantation. The purpose of this retrospective study was to validate this proposal.

METHODS

A total of 240 HCC patients after liver transplantation were included. Recurrence-free survival and overall survival at 5 years were set as the primary and secondary outcome measures, respectively.

RESULTS

The Warsaw expansion increased transplant eligibility rate by 20.3 %. AFP >100 ng/ml significantly increased the recurrence risk in patients within the Milan criteria (p = 0.025) and in those beyond, yet within either the UCSF or the up-to-7 criteria (p < 0.001). Recurrence-free survival at 5 years was 90.8 % for patients within the Milan criteria, 100.0 % in patients within the Warsaw expansion, 54.9 % in patients beyond the Warsaw expansion but within either the UCSF or the up-to-7 criteria, and 45.1 % in patients beyond both the UCSF and the up-to-7 criteria (p < 0.001). The corresponding overall survival rates were 71.6, 82.4, 64.3, and 55.3 %, respectively (p = 0.027).

CONCLUSIONS

The Warsaw expansion of the Milan criteria substantially increases the recipient pool without compromising outcomes.

Outcomes of Patients With Poorly Differentiated Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) outcomes for patients with poorly differentiated (G3) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are unsatisfactory. The aim of this study was to evaluate outcomes in patients with poorly differentiated HCC undergoing LT.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

There were 192 HCC patients after LT in the Department of General, Transplant and Liver Surgery, Medical University of Warsaw, between January 2001 and April 2014. The study group comprised 24 patients with poorly differentiated tumors.

RESULTS

Disease-free survival (DFS) for all patients was 49.5% at 5 years. The 5-year DFS for patients who met the Milan criteria (n = 9, 88.9%) was significantly better compared to those who did not (n = 15, 28.0%, P = .025). Multivariable analysis revealed that only the largest tumor diameter (P = .014) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) concentration (P = .001) were independent risk factors for DFS. The optimal cut-off AFP and tumor size that could distinguish patients with the highest risk were ≥500 ng/mL and ≥3.5 cm, respectively. DFS for patients with AFP <500 ng/mL and tumor size <3.5 cm was 100% after 2.8 years, and for those with ≥500 ng/mL or tumor size ≥3.5 cm was 46.9% after 5 years. However, the DFS for patients with AFP ≥500 ng/mL and tumor size ≥3.5 cm was only 12.5% after 4.7 years (P = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

Outcomes of patients with poorly differentiated HCC treated with LT can be characterized with acceptable survival when applying criteria based on tumor size <3.5 cm and AFP <500 ng/mL.

Contribution of alpha-fetoprotein in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the main tumor biomarker available for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although it is neither a good screening test nor an accurate diagnostic tool for HCC, it seems to be a possible prognostic marker. However, its contribution in liver transplantation for HCC has not been fully determined, although its use to predict recurrence after liver transplantation has been underlined by international societies. In an era of organ shortages, it could also have a key role in the selection of patients eligible for liver transplantation. Yet unanswered questions remain. First, the cut-off value of serum AFP above which liver transplantation should not be performed is still a subject of debate. We show that a concentration of 1000 ng/mL could be an exclusion criterion, whereas values of < 15 ng/mL indicate patients with an excellent prognosis whatever the size and number of tumors. Monitoring the dynamics of AFP could also prove useful. However, evidence is lacking regarding the values that should be used. Today, the real input of AFP seems to be its integration into new criteria to select patients eligible for a liver transplantation. These recent tools have associated AFP values with morphological criteria, thus refining pre-existing criteria, such as Milan, University of California, San Francisco, or “up-to-seven”. We provide a review of the different criteria submitted within the past years. Finally, AFP can be used to monitor recurrence after transplantation, although there is little evidence to support this claim. Future challenges will be to draft new international guidelines to implement the use of AFP as a selection tool, and to determine a clear cut-off value above which liver transplantation should not be performed.

Peri-Transplant Change in AFP Level: a Useful Predictor of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Following Liver Transplantation

Pretransplant alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a useful tumor marker predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Little is known, however, about the relationship between changes in AFP concentration and prognosis. This study investigated the clinical significance of change in peri-transplant AFP level as a predictor of HCC recurrence. Data from 125 HCC patients with elevated pretransplant AFP level who underwent liver transplantation (LT) between February 2000 and December 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with AFP normalization within 1 month after LT were classified into the rapid normalization group (n = 97), with all other patients classified into the non-rapid normalization group (n = 28). Tumor recurrence was observed in 17 of the 97 patients (17.5%) with rapid normalization; of these, 11 patients had high AFP levels and six had normal levels at recurrence. In contrast, tumor recurrence was observed in 24 of the 28 patients (85.7%) without rapid normalization, with all 24 having high AFP levels at recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that non-rapid normalization (harzard ratio [HR], 4.41, P < 0.001), sex (HR, 3.26, P = 0.03), tumor size (HR, 1.15, P = 0.001), and microvascular invasion (HR, 2.65, P = 0.005) were independent risk factors for recurrence. In conclusion, rapid normalization of post-LT AFP level at 1 month is a useful clinical marker for HCC recurrence. Therefore, an adjuvant strategy and/or intensive screening are needed for patients who do not show rapid normalization.

Living vs. deceased-donor liver transplantation for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

With the scarcity of deceased donor liver grafts, living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is gaining popularity as an alternative to deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, as the evidence of cases of LDLT accumulates, several authors have reported higher HCC recurrence rates after LDLT. The suggested reasons for the higher recurrence rates following LDLT are related to the small-for-size graft in LDLT, surgical procedures that are specific to LDLT, and the fast-track to LDLT. Fast-tracking to LDLT may not allow sufficient time for evaluation of the biological aggressiveness of tumors, which may result in high recurrence rates due to inclusion of patients with more inherently aggressive tumors. Actually, some studies that reported higher recurrence rates with LDLT included a larger number of cases of HCC with microvascular invasion or poorly differentiated HCC. In order to exclude biologically aggressive HCC preoperatively, selection criteria incorporating tumor markers, such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP), as well as morphological tumor number and size have been proposed. With more reliable selection criteria incorporating biological markers to eliminate biologically aggressive HCC, LDLT can be a viable treatment option for patients with HCC, providing similar recurrence rates as those achieved with DDLT.

Liver transplantation for hepatobiliary malignancies: a new era of "Transplant Oncology" has begun

The indications of liver transplantation for hepatobiliary malignancies have been carefully expanded in a stepwise fashion, despite the fundamental limitations in oncological, immunological, and technical aspects. A new era of "Transplant Oncology," the fusion of transplant surgery and surgical oncology, has begun, and we stand at the dawn of a paradigm shift in multidisciplinary cancer treatment. For hepatocellular carcinoma, new strategies have been undertaken to select recipients based on biological and dynamic markers instead of conventional morphological and static parameters, opening the doors for a more deliberate expansion of the Milan criteria and locoregional therapies before liver transplantation. Neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy followed by liver transplantation for unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma developed by the Mayo Clinic provided excellent outcomes in a US multicenter study; however, the surgical indications are not necessarily universal and await international validation. Similarly, an aggressive multidisciplinary approach has been applied for other tumors, including intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, hepatoblastoma, liver metastases from colorectal and neuroendocrine primary and gastrointestinal stromal tumors as well as rare tumors, such as hepatic undifferentiated embryonal sarcoma and infantile choriocarcinoma. In conclusion, liver transplantation is an important option for hepatobiliary malignancies; however, prospective studies are urgently needed to ensure the appropriate patient selection, organ allocation and living donation policies, and administration of antineoplastic immunosuppression.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma beyond the Milan criteria: A review

Liver transplantation (LT) has been accepted as an effective therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The Milan criteria (MC) are widely used across the world to select LT candidates in HCC patients. However, the MC may be too strict because a substantial subset of patients who have HCC exceed the MC and who would benefit from LT may be unnecessarily excluded from the waiting list. In recent years, many extended criteria beyond the MC were raised, which were proved to be able to yield similar outcomes compared with those patients meeting the MC. Because the simple use of tumor size and number was insufficient to indicate HCC biological features and to predict the risk of tumor recurrence, some biological markers such as Alpha-fetoprotein, Des-Gamma-carboxy prothrombin and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were useful in selecting LT candidates in HCC patients beyond the MC. For patients with advanced HCC, downstaging therapy is an effective way to reduce the tumor stage to fulfill the MC by using liver-directed therapy such as transarterial chemoembolization, radiofrequency ablation and percutaneous ethanol injection. This article reviews the recent advances in LT for HCC beyond the MC.

Selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation: Past and future

The aim of liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is to ensure a rate of disease-free survival similar to that of patients transplanted due to benign disease. Therefore, we are forced to adopt strict criteria when selecting candidates for LT and prioritizing patients on the waiting list (WL), to have clarified indications for bridging therapy for groups at risk for progression or recurrence, and to establish certain limits for downstaging therapies. Although the Milan criteria (MC) remain the standard and most employed criteria for indication of HCC patients for LT by far, in the coming years, criteria will be consolidated that take into account not only data regarding the size/volume and number of tumors but also their biology. This criteria will mainly include the alpha fetoprotein (AFP) values and, in view of their wide variability, any of the published logarithmic models for the selection of candidates for LT. Bridging therapy is necessary for HCC patients on the WL who meet the MC and have the possibility of experiencing a delay for LT greater than 6 mo or any of the known risk factors for recurrence. It is difficult to define single AFP values that would indicate bridging therapy (200, 300 or 400 ng/mL); therefore, it is preferable to rely on the criteria of a French AFP model score > 2. Other single indications for bridging therapy include a tumor diameter greater than 3 cm, more than one tumor, and having an AFP slope greater than 15 ng/mL per month or > 50 ng/mL for three months during strict monitoring while on the WL. When considering the inclusion of patients on the WL who do not meet the MC, it is mandatory to determine their eligibility for downstaging therapy prior to inclusion. The upper limit for this therapy could be one lesion up to 8 cm, 2-3 lesions with a total tumor diameter up to 8 cm, or a total tumor volume of 115 cm³. Lastly, liver allocation and the prioritization of patients with HCC on the WL should take into account the recently described HCC model for end-stage liver disease, which considers hepatic function, HCC size and the number and the log of AFP values. This formula has been calibrated with the survival data of non-HCC patients and produces a dynamic and more accurate assessment model.

Risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation: accuracy of the alpha-fetoprotein model in a single-center experience

BACKGROUND

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cirrhosis after a liver transplantation (LT) is a major concern, and a strict Milan criteria selection of candidates does not accurately discriminate the relapse rate after LT.

PURPOSE

This study sought to analyze the risk factors affecting tumor recurrence after LT for related cirrhosis HCC and the application of the French prognostic model (preLT alpha-fetoprotein [AFP], size, number) in a single center.

METHODS

In a retrospective observational study of LT for HCC and cirrhosis, clinicopathological features were analyzed. Also, the preoperative and postoperative AFP model score was calculated with a cutoff of 2.

RESULTS

Of 480, 109 patients underwent cadaveric LT for HCC. Eight of them had a relapse (7%). High AFP level, AFP model score >2, high pathological tumor-node-metastasis (pTNM) stage, poor differentiation, macrovascular-microvascular invasion, infiltration, and R1 margin were statistically significant (P < .05) for recurrence. Also, in the preoperative model, AFP score >2 was a predictor of worse survival (1-, 3-, 5-, 10-year survival of 81%, 51%, 30%, 30% vs 90%, 76%, 73%, 69% in ≤2, with P = .005). Regarding the postoperative model, similar results were found (1-, 3-, 5-, 10-year survival of 84%, 47%, 37%, 37% vs 90%, 78%, 73%, 52%, P = .028) between AFP model score >2 and ≤2, respectively. However, Milan and up-to-7 criteria were not accurate in recurrence nor in survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The French AFP model has proven to be a more discerning prognostic tool than other established criteria in the prediction of recurrence and survival. Also, in postoperative prognosis, pathological risk factors for relapse such as pTNM, differentiation grade, macrovascular-microvascular invasion, infiltration, and R1 margin have been predictors of recurrence.

Tumor DNA Index and α-Fetoprotein Level Define Outcome following Liver Transplantation for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria are expected to have inferior outcome after liver transplantation (LT) and are therefore currently not considered for LT in many countries. The purpose of this study was to identify predictive factors for overall survival following LT for HCC that may support the Milan criteria in the selection of appropriate transplant candidates.

METHODS

Clinicopathological data on 364 patients with HCC who underwent LT between 1989 and 2010 were retrospectively evaluated. Predictors of overall survival in the entire cohort as well as in subsets of patients within (n = 214) and beyond (n = 150) the Milan criteria were analyzed.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis in the entire cohort identified DNA index >1.5 (p < 0.0001), α-fetoprotein level (AFP) >200 ng/ml (p = 0.005), and HCC beyond the Milan criteria (p = 0.002) to be associated with worse overall survival. In patients within the Milan criteria (median survival: 170 months), DNA index >1.5 (p < 0.0001) was the only predictor of worse overall survival in multivariate analysis. In patients beyond the Milan criteria (median survival: 44 months), DNA index >1.5, AFP >200 ng/ml, microvascular invasion, patient age >60 years, and DNA index >1.5 concomitant with AFP >200 ng/ml were associated with worse overall survival in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis identified DNA index >1.5 concomitant with AFP >200 ng/ml (p < 0.0001) as the only independent predictor of worse overall survival. Consequently, patients beyond the Milan criteria with a combined favorable DNA index ≤1.5 and AFP ≤200 ng/ml had a median survival (147 months) comparable to that of patients within the Milan criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

DNA index and AFP level predict overall survival following LT in patients with advanced HCC beyond the Milan criteria. A combined assessment of these markers during the evaluation of transplant candidates can contribute to the selection of patients with HCC who may benefit from LT independently of their tumor burden.

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems Based on Both Donor and Recipient Characteristics for Predicting Outcome after Living Donor Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

In order to provide a good match between donor and recipient in liver transplantation, four scoring systems [the product of donor age and Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (D-MELD), the score to predict survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT), the balance of risk score (BAR), and the transplant risk index (TRI)] based on both donor and recipient parameters were designed. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the four scores in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and compare them with the MELD score.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinical data of 249 adult patients undergoing LDLT in our center were retrospectively evaluated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of each score were calculated and compared at 1-, 3-, 6-month and 1-year after LDLT.

RESULTS

The BAR at 1-, 3-, 6-month and 1-year after LDLT and the D-MELD and TRI at 1-, 3- and 6-month after LDLT showed acceptable performances in the prediction of survival (AUC>0.6), while the SOFT showed poor discrimination at 6-month after LDLT (AUC = 0.569). In addition, the D-MELD and BAR displayed positive correlations with the length of ICU stay (D-MELD, p = 0.025; BAR, p = 0.022). The SOFT was correlated with the time of mechanical ventilation (p = 0.022).

CONCLUSION

The D-MELD, BAR and TRI provided acceptable performance in predicting survival after LDLT. However, even though these scoring systems were based on both donor and recipient parameters, only the BAR provided better performance than the MELD in predicting 1-year survival after LDLT.

Identifying candidates with favorable prognosis following liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Data mining analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The optimal cutoff of each value in configuring selection criteria for pre-transplant assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain.

METHODS

To build a predictive model for recurrent HCC, we performed data mining analysis on patients who underwent LT for HCC at University Health Network (n = 246). The model was externally validated using a cohort from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) database (n = 9,769).

RESULTS

Among 246 patients, 14.6% (n = 36) experienced recurrent HCC within 2.5 years post-LT. The risk prediction model for recurrent HCC identified two subgroups with low-risk (total tumor diameter [TTD] <4 cm and serum alpha-fetoprotein [AFP] <73 ng/ml, n = 135) and with high-risk (TTD >4 cm and/or AFP >73 ng/ml, n = 111). The reproducibility of the model was validated through the SRTR database; overall patient survival rate was significantly better in low-risk group than high-risk group (P < 0.0001). Using Cox regression model, this yardstick, not Milan criteria, was revealed to efficiently predict post-transplant survival independent of underlying characteristics (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Grouping LT candidates with pre-LT HCC by the cutoffs of TTD 4 cm and AFP 73 ng/ml which were unearthed by data mining analysis efficiently classify patients according by the post-transplant prognosis.

A score model for predicting post-liver transplantation survival in HBV cirrhosis-related hepatocellular carcinoma recipients: a single center 5-year experience

BACKGROUND

The prognostic prediction of liver transplantation (LT) guides the donor organ allocation. However, there is currently no satisfactory model to predict the recipients' outcome, especially for the patients with HBV cirrhosis-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The present study was to develop a quantitative assessment model for predicting the post-LT survival in HBV-related HCC patients.

METHODS

Two hundred and thirty-eight LT recipients at the Liver Transplant Center, First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine between 2008 and 2013 were included in this study. Their post-LT prognosis was recorded and multiple risk factors were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses in Cox regression.

RESULTS

The score model was as follows: 0.114X(Child-Pugh score)-0.002X(positive HBV DNA detection time)+0.647X(number of tumor nodules)+0.055X(max diameter of tumor nodules)+0.231XlnAFP+0.437X(tumor differentiation grade). The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the scoring model for predicting the post-LT survival was 0.887. The cut-off value was 1.27, which was associated with a sensitivity of 72.5% and a specificity of 90.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The quantitative score model for predicting post-LT survival proved to be sensitive and specific.

Patient and tumour biology predict survival beyond the Milan criteria in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria are not considered for liver transplantation (LT) in many centres; however, LT may be the only treatment able to achieve long-term survival in patients with unresectable HCC. The aim of this study was to assess the role of recipient age and tumour biology expressed by the DNA index in the selection of HCC patients for LT.

PATIENTS

Clinicopathological data of 364 patients with HCC who underwent LT between 1989 and 2010 were evaluated. Overall survival (OS) was analysed by patient age, tumour burden based on Milan criteria and the DNA index.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up time of 78 months, the median survival was 100 months. Factors associated with OS on univariate analysis included Milan criteria, patient age, hepatitis C infection, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, the DNA index, number of HCC, diameter of HCC, bilobar HCC, microvascular tumour invasion and tumour grading. On multivariate analysis, HCC beyond Milan criteria and the DNA index >1.5 independently predicted a worse OS. When stratifying patients by both age and Milan criteria, patients ≤ 60 years with HCC beyond Milan criteria had an OS comparable to that of patients >60 years within Milan criteria (10-year OS: 33% versus 37%, P = 0.08). Patients ≤ 60 years with HCC beyond Milan criteria but a favourable DNA index ≤ 1.5 achieved excellent long-term outcomes, comparable with those of patients within Milan criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients ≤ 60 years may undergo LT for HCC with favourable outcomes independently of their tumour burden. Additional assessment of tumour biology, e.g. using the DNA index, especially in this subgroup of patients can support the selection of LT candidates who may derive the most long-term survival benefit, even if Milan criteria are not fulfilled.

Liver transplantation for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: how far can we go?

Liver transplantation is one of the most effective treatment options for hepatocellular carcinoma. Although the Milan criteria have been widely used to identify suitable candidates for liver transplant with a good prognosis, many transplant centers have developed and actually used more expanded criteria. Living donor liver transplant (LDLT) is at the center of expansion of criteria because it is based on the personal relationship between a recipient and a donor. Asian LDLT centers have developed various expanded criteria for LDLT using tumor biologic markers as well as the size and number of the tumors. However, there is no consensus on the limit of the expansion of criteria. Here, we present our experience and opinion on LDLT for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

Biological markers of hepatocellular carcinoma for use as selection criteria in liver transplantation

The Milan criteria (MC) have been widely accepted as an effective way of selecting patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for curative liver transplantation (LT). However, since a substantial subset of HCC patients exists that is beyond the MC but with the potential for good outcomes after LT, several institutions have recently proposed new extended criteria. To explore optimal criteria that can reasonably predict the risk of recurrence, it is considered that new markers of biological behavior are needed in addition to morphological tumor size and number. Several promising candidates for such biological markers have been reported, including serum tumor markers such as alpha-fetoprotein and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin, inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, response to pre-transplant treatments for bridging therapy or down-staging, and fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography. However, the role of these biological markers in patient selection criteria for LT has yet to be clarified. This review article aims to summarize the results of recent reported studies and to display perspectives for the establishment of optimal criteria that incorporate such biological markers.

Optimal tailored screening protocol after living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

The indication for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is expanding in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). Early detection and effective management of recurrence has become an important issue in LDLT for HCC. This study aimed to find an optimal screening protocol in terms of screening interval and screening tools by analyzing recurrence pattern after LDLT for HCC. A total of 205 LDLT patients in two centers from February 1999 to October 2010 was reviewed. Recurrence appeared in 55 cases. Six risk factors for recurrence were identified: preoperative alpha-fetoprotein >400, Edmonson grade 3 or 4, tumor size >7 cm, tumor number ≥7, minimal tumor necrosis in the transarterial chemoembolization group and positive micro-vascular invasion. Four groups with different ranges of index scores showed different recurrence-free survival and median time to recurrence. Group I showed low and late recurrence. Groups II and III showed linearly increased rate of recurrence until 18 months. Group IV showed very early recurrence within 6 months. Across the groups, extra-hepatic recurrence developed in more than 40% of cases and multi-organ recurrence rate was 20%. The screening interval should be different based on the risk of recurrence. Screening should include work-up for extra-hepatic recurrence as well as intra-hepatic recurrence.