Postoperative α-fetoprotein response predicts tumor recurrence and survival after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: A propensity score matching analysis

Prognostic significance of postoperative serological incomplete conversion of AFP and PIVKA-II after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter analysis of 1755 patients

BACKGROUND

The value of serum biomarkers, particularly alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), gains increasing attention in prognostic evaluation and recurrence monitoring for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study investigated the implications of serological incomplete conversion (SIC) of these 2 biomarkers as prognostic indicators for long-term outcomes after HCC resection.

METHODS

A multicenter observational study was conducted on a cohort of HCC patients presenting with AFP (>20 ng/mL) or PIVKA-II (>40 mAU/mL) positivity who underwent curative-intent resection. Based on their postoperative AFP and PIVKA-II levels at first postoperative follow-up (4~8 weeks after surgery), these patients were stratified into the serological incomplete conversion (SIC) and serological complete conversion (SCC) groups. The study endpoints were recurrence and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Among 1755 patients, 379 and 1376 were categorized as having SIC and SCC, respectively. The SIC group exhibited 1- and 5-year OS rates of 67.5% and 26.3%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 53.2% and 79.0%, respectively; while the SCC group displayed 1- and 5-year OS rates of 95.8% and 62.5%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 16.8% and 48.8%, respectively (both P < .001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that postoperative SIC was an independent risk factor for both increased recurrence (HR: 2.40, 95% CI, 2.04-2.81, P < .001) and decreased OS (HR: 2.69, 95% CI, 2.24-3.24, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The results emphasize that postoperative incomplete conversion of either AFP or PIVKA-II is a significant prognostic marker, indicating a higher risk for adverse oncologic outcomes following HCC resection. This revelation has crucial implications for refining postoperative adjuvant therapy and surveillance strategies for HCC patients.

Prognostic implications of preoperative, postoperative, and dynamic changes of alpha-fetoprotein and des-gamma (γ)-carboxy prothrombin expression pattern for hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection: a multicenter observational study

Background

The utility of pre- and post-operative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma (γ)-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) expression patterns and their dynamic changes as predictors of the outcome of hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has yet to be well elucidated.

Methods

From a multicenter database, AFP and DCP data during the week prior to surgery and the first post-discharge outpatient visit (within 1-2 months after surgery) were collected from patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy. AFP-DCP expression patterns were categorized according to the number of positive tumor markers (AFP ≥ 20ng/mL, DCP ≥ 40mAU/mL), including double-negative, single-positive, and double-positive. Changes in the AFP-DCP expression patterns were delineated based on variations in the number of positive tumor markers when comparing pre- and post-operative patterns.

Results

Preoperatively, 53 patients (8.3%), 337 patients (52.8%), and 248 patients (38.9%) exhibited double-negative, single-positive, and double-positive AFP-DCP expression patterns, respectively. Postoperatively, 463 patients (72.6%), 130 patients (20.4%), and 45 patients (7.0%) showed double-negative, single-positive, and double-positive AFP-DCP expression patterns, respectively. Survival analysis showed a progressive decrease in recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) as the number of postoperative positive tumor markers increased (both P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that postoperative AFP-DCP expression pattern, but not preoperative AFP-DCP expression pattern, was an independent risk factor for RFS and OS. Further analysis showed that for patients with positive preoperative markers, prognosis gradually improves as positive markers decrease postoperatively. In particular, when all postoperative markers turned negative, the prognosis was consistent with that of preoperative double-negative patients, regardless of the initial number of positive markers.

Conclusions

AFP-DCP expression patterns, particularly postoperative patterns, serve as vital sources of information for prognostic evaluation following hepatectomy for HCC. Moreover, changes in AFP-DCP expression patterns from pre- to post-operation enable dynamic prognostic risk stratification postoperatively, aiding the development of individualized follow-up strategies.

Serum alpha-fetoprotein response as a preoperative prognostic indicator in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with salvage hepatectomy following conversion therapy: a multicenter retrospective study

Background

This study evaluates the efficacy of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response as a surrogate marker for determining recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) who undergo salvage hepatectomy following conversion therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) and anti-PD-1 antibody-based regimen.

Methods

This multicenter retrospective study included 74 patients with uHCC and positive AFP (>20 ng/mL) at diagnosis, who underwent salvage hepatectomy after treatment with TKIs and anti-PD-1 antibody-based regimens. The association between AFP response-defined as a ≥ 80% decrease in final AFP levels before salvage hepatectomy from diagnosis-and RFS post-hepatectomy was investigated.

Results

AFP responders demonstrated significantly better postoperative RFS compared to non-responders (P<0.001). The median RFS was not reached for AFP responders, with 1-year and 2-year RFS rates of 81.3% and 70.8%, respectively. In contrast, AFP non-responders had a median RFS of 7.43 months, with 1-year and 2-year RFS rates at 37.1% and 37.1%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified AFP response as an independent predictor of RFS. Integrating AFP response with radiologic tumor response facilitated further stratification of patients into distinct risk categories: those with radiologic remission experienced the most favorable RFS, followed by patients with partial response/stable disease and AFP response, and the least favorable RFS among patients with partial response/stable disease but without AFP response. Sensitivity analyses further confirmed the association between AFP response and improved RFS across various cutoff values and in patients with AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL at diagnosis (all P<0.05).

Conclusion

The "20-80" rule based on AFP response could be helpful for clinicians to preoperatively stratify the risk of patients undergoing salvage hepatectomy, enabling identification and management of those unlikely to benefit from this procedure.

A Longitudinal Study of AFP Trajectories and Clinical Outcomes in Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy

Background

Previous studies have shown that the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response has been a key tumour marker in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its definition remains controversial. Recently, a new study has explored and defined the AFP serological response and used it to explain the subclass of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (IM-HCC) with "sharp-falling" AFP change after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). It may be a new and simple tool for assessing the prognosis of patients. This study aims to explore a simplified AFP trajectory and its impact on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) for IM-HCC after hepatectomy.

Patients and Methods

Between January 2007 and May 2012, data from the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center was examined in this longitudinal, retrospective cohort study. A generalized additive model was applied to distinguish potential AFP dynamic trajectories. The Kaplan-Meier method was applied to analyze OS and DFS, and multivariate Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for overall survival.

Results

144 patients who had IM-HCC with at least three AFP repeat measurements were included in the study. Three similar trajectories are displayed using the generalized additive model: low-stable (35.4%; n = 51), high-rising (36.1%; n = 52), and sharp-falling (28.5%; n = 41). Compared with the low-stable class, the aHRs for death were 2.84 (1.50, 5.41) and 0.59 (0.25, 1.40) for the high-rising and sharp-falling classes, adjusted by age and log AFP. Simplified AFP trajectory had higher relative importance than sex, intrahepatic tumor number, Child-Pugh class, and baseline AFP.

Conclusion

The simplified AFP trajectory is a promising biomarker for IM-HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy. In the future, it should be verified by a larger population containing various stages of HCC.

Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Primary Liver Cancer (2022 Edition)

Background

Primary liver cancer, of which around 75-85% is hepatocellular carcinoma in China, is the fourth most common malignancy and the second leading cause of tumor-related death, thereby posing a significant threat to the life and health of the Chinese people.

Summary

Since the publication of Guidelines for Diagnosis and Treatment of Primary Liver Cancer in China in June 2017, which were updated by the National Health Commission in December 2019, additional high-quality evidence has emerged from researchers worldwide regarding the diagnosis, staging, and treatment of liver cancer, that requires the guidelines to be updated again. The new edition (2022 Edition) was written by more than 100 experts in the field of liver cancer in China, which not only reflects the real-world situation in China but also may reshape the nationwide diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer.

Key Messages

The new guideline aims to encourage the implementation of evidence-based practice and improve the national average 5-year survival rate for patients with liver cancer, as proposed in the "Health China 2030 Blueprint."

Radiographic and α-fetoprotein response predict pathologic complete response to immunotherapy plus a TKI in hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Pathologic complete response (pCR) following preoperative systemic therapy is associated with improved outcomes after subsequent liver transplant/resection in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the relationship between radiographic and histopathological response remains unclear.

METHODS

We retrospectively examined patients with initially unresectable HCC who received tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) plus anti-programmed death 1 (PD-1) therapy before undergoing liver resection between March 2019 and September 2021 across 7 hospitals in China. Radiographic response was evaluated using mRECIST. A pCR was defined as no viable tumor cells in resected samples.

RESULTS

We included 35 eligible patients, of whom 15 (42.9%) achieved pCR after systemic therapy. After a median follow-up of 13.2 months, tumors recurred in 8 non-pCR and 1 pCR patient. Before resection, there were 6 complete responses, 24 partial responses, 4 stable disease cases, and 1 progressive disease case, per mRECIST. Predicting pCR by radiographic response yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.727 (95% CI: 0.558-0.902), with an optimal cutoff value of 80% reduction in the enhanced area in MRI (called major radiographic response), which had a 66.7% sensitivity, 85.0% specificity, and a 77.1% diagnostic accuracy. When radiographic response was combined with α-fetoprotein response, the AUC was 0.926 (95% CI: 0.785-0.999); the optimal cutoff value was 0.446, which had a 91.7% sensitivity, 84.6%, specificity, and an 88.0% diagnostic accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with unresectable HCC receiving combined TKI/anti-PD 1 therapy, major radiographic response alone or combined with α-fetoprotein response may predict pCR.

Association between early response of alpha-fetoprotein and treatment efficacy of systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study from China

Background

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a well-identified biomarker in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, only limited AFP-related studies have evaluated its early response to systemic therapy. This study was performed with the aim of assessing the value of early AFP response in predicting overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in advanced HCC patients receiving systemic therapy.

Methods

This cohort study included HCC patients with baseline AFP ≥ 200 ng/ml and no prior treatment history. A > 20% decline in the serum AFP level from baseline to the first follow-up (i.e., 4~6 weeks after treatment) was defined as an early AFP response. Patient demographic information, clinical characteristics, radiological response, and survival rates were compared between patients with early AFP response and patients without early AFP response. We further utilized multivariate Cox regression to seek characteristics related to OS and PFS.

Results

Among 154 patients, 69 patients (44.8%) showed an early AFP response. The disease control rate (76.8 vs. 54.1%; P = 0.003) and objective response rate (38.4 vs. 11.8%; P = 0.001) were significantly higher in patients with an early AFP response. By performing multivariate analysis, early AFP response remained a prognostic factor for longer PFS (HR 0.546; 95% CI 0.371-0.804; P = 0.002) and longer OS (HR 0.529; 95% CI 0.335-0.834; P = 0.006).

Conclusion

An early AFP response is correlated with longer overall survival and progression-free survival for advanced HCC patients receiving systemic therapy. Moreover, an early AFP response is an independent prognostic factor for longer OS and PFS.

Trajectories of serum α-fetoprotein and intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma outcomes after transarterial chemoembolization: A longitudinal, retrospective, multicentre, cohort study

BACKGROUND

α-fetoprotein (AFP) response has been proven a key tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its definition remains controversial. This study aims to characterize AFP trajectories after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and examine its impact on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

This longitudinal, multicenter, retrospective, cohort study examined data from the electronic medical record system of four hospitals in China between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2016. A latent class growth mixed model was applied to distinguish potential AFP dynamic changing trajectories. The multivariable Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for overall survival. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted analyses were performed to eliminate unmeasured confounders through marginal structural models.

FINDINGS

A total of 881 patients, who had intermediate-stage HCC with AFP repeatedly measured 3 to 10 times, were included in the study. Three distinct trajectories were identified using the latent class growth mixture model: high-rising (25.7%; n = 226), low-stable (58.7%; n = 517), and sharp-falling (AFP serological response, 15.6%; n = 138). Compared with the low-stable class, the aHRs for death were 5.13 (3.71, 7.10) and 0.52 (0.33, 0.81) for the high-rising and sharp-falling class, adjusted by gender, baseline major tumor size, intrahepatic lesions number, and logAFP(smooth). Furthermore, high-rising class had a significantly higher HR in the subgroup of female patients (10.60, 95%CI: 6.29, 17.86), age<55 (6.78, 95%CI: 4.79, 9.59) and Child-Pugh class B (23.01, 95%CI:8.07, 65.63) (P = 0.014, 0.046 and 0.033 for interaction, respectively). Trajectories of AFP had the highest relative importance of each parameter to survival, including largest tumor size, intrahepatic lesions number, Child-Pugh class, and baseline AFP.

INTERPRETATION

AFP trajectories were associated with overall survival for intermediate-stage HCC after TACE.

FUNDING

The Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (Nos. 2018J01352, 2016J01576 and 2016J01586); the Science and Technology Innovation Joint Foundation of Fujian Province (Nos. 2017Y9125).

A Novel Post-Operative ALRI Model Accurately Predicts Clinical Outcomes of Resected Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading malignant tumors worldwide. Prognosis and long-term survival of HCC remain unsatisfactory, even after radical resection, and many non-invasive predictors have been explored for post-operative patients. Most prognostic prediction models were based on preoperative clinical characteristics and pathological findings. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of a newly constructed nomogram, which incorporated post-operative aspartate aminotransferase to lymphocyte ratio index (ALRI).

Methods

A total of 771 HCC patients underwent radical resection from three medical centers were enrolled and grouped into the training cohort (n = 416) and validation cohort (n = 355). Prognostic prediction potential of ALRI was assessed by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. The Cox regression model was used to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were constructed and further validated externally.

Results

The ROC analysis ranked ALRI as the most effective prediction marker for resected HCC patients, with the cut-off value determined at 22.6. Higher ALRI level positively correlated with larger tumor size, higher tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage, and inversely with lower albumin level and shorter OS and DFS. Nomograms for OS and DFS were capable of discriminating HCC patients into different risk-groups.

Conclusions

Post-operative ALRI was of prediction value for HCC prognosis. This novel nomogram may categorize HCC patients into different risk groups, and offer individualized surveillance reference for post-operative patients.

Prognostic Values of Alpha-Fetoprotein and Des-Gamma-Carboxyprothrombin in Hepatocellular Carcinoma in China: An Analysis of 4792 Patients

Background

The importance of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been studied extensively in Japan, where hepatitis C virus is the predominant aetiology of HCC. The clinical profiles of HCC regarding the state of AFP and DCP in a hepatitis B virus epidemic area have not been comprehensively investigated, and the value of these tumour markers in evaluating the response to treatment and the detection of recurrence has yet to be determined.

Patients and Methods

A total of 4792 patients treated in our centre were continuously analysed regarding accessible AFP and DCP data pre- and posttreatment. Baseline characteristics were summarized, and comparisons of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were made independently. The prognostic significance of each factor was tested with the Cox proportional hazards model. Patients who had AFP and DCP data pretreatment, pre- and posttreatment, and those who were continuously monitored more than twice were analysed separately.

Results

A total of 2600 patients (53.4%) were positive for AFP and DCP; 362 (7.6%) and 1211 (25.3%) patients were AFP- or DCP-positive, respectively, and 619 patients (12.9%) were negative for both AFP and DCP. Patients in the AFP single-positive or double-negative groups had the best OS (P<0.001). Patients with less than 50% responses in AFP and DCP after treatments suffered from worse prognostic survival (P<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, elevated AFP and DCP were identified as independent prognostic factors of PFS and OS. In addition, different tumour markers were related to different clinical and pathological traits.

Conclusion

The present study comprehensively explored the clinical value of classical tumour markers for HCC using the “point-to-line” method. Positivity of pretreatment AFP and DCP or less than 50% treatment response rates exhibited more aggressive HCC, resulting in poor PFS and OS in HCC patients.

Biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma based on body fluids and feces

Novel non-/minimally-invasive and effective approaches are urgently needed to supplement and improve current strategies for diagnosis and management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Overwhelming evidence from published studies on HCC has documented that multiple molecular biomarkers detected in body fluids and feces can be utilized in early-diagnosis, predicting responses to specific therapies, evaluating prognosis before or after therapy, as well as serving as novel therapeutic targets. Detection and analysis of proteins, metabolites, circulating nucleic acids, circulating tumor cells, and extracellular vesicles in body fluids (e.g., blood and urine) and gut microbiota (e.g., in feces) have excellent capabilities to improve different aspects of management of HCC. Numerous studies have been devoted in identifying more promising candidate biomarkers and therapeutic targets for diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring responses of HCC to conventional therapies, most of which may improve diagnosis and management of HCC in the future. This review aimed to summarize recent advances in utilizing these biomarkers in HCC and discuss their clinical significance.

Association of Postoperative Biomarker Response with Recurrence and Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and High Alpha-Fetoprotein Expressions (>400 ng/ml)

Background

High alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) expressions (>400 ng/mL) are associated with poor oncological characteristics for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prognosis after liver resection for high-AFP HCC is poorly studied. To investigate long-term recurrence and survival after hepatectomy for high-AFP HCC, and to identify the predictive value of postoperative incomplete biomarker response (IBR) on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

Methods

Patients undergoing curative resection for high-AFP HCC were analyzed. According to the decline magnitude of serum AFP as measured at first follow-up (4~6 weeks after surgery), all patients were divided into the complete biomarker response (CBR) and IBR groups. Characteristics, recurrence, and survival rates were compared. Univariate and Multivariate Cox-regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors associated with poorer OS and RFS after liver resection for high-AFP HCC.

Results

Among 549 patients, the overall and early recurrence rates in patients with IBR were significantly higher than patients with CBR (97.8%vs.56.4%, and 92.5%vs.33.3%, both P<0.001). On multivariate analysis, postoperative IBR was the strongest risk factor with the highest hazard ratio in predicting poor OS (HR 2.97; 95% CI 2.49~3.45; P<0.001) and RFS (HR 4.29; 95% CI 3.31~5.55; P<0.001).

Conclusion

Postoperative biomarker response of serum AFP can be used in predicting recurrence and survival for high-AFP HCC patients. Once postoperative IBR was identified at first follow-up, subsequent enhanced recurrence surveillance and available treatments against recurrence should actively be considered.

Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (2019 Edition)

BACKGROUND

Primary liver cancer, around 90% are hepatocellular carcinoma in China, is the fourth most common malignancy and the second leading cause of tumor-related death, thereby posing a significant threat to the life and health of the Chinese people.

SUMMARY

Since the publication of Guidelines for Diagnosis and Treatment of Primary Liver Cancer (2017 Edition) in 2018, additional high-quality evidence has emerged with relevance to the diagnosis, staging, and treatment of liver cancer in and outside China that requires the guidelines to be updated. The new edition (2019 Edition) was written by more than 70 experts in the field of liver cancer in China. They reflect the real-world situation in China regarding diagnosing and treating liver cancer in recent years.

KEY MESSAGES

Most importantly, the new guidelines were endorsed and promulgated by the Bureau of Medical Administration of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China in December 2019.

Post-treatment alpha-fetoprotein response predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Post-treatment alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response has been reported to be associated with prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, but the results were not consistent. This meta-analysis aimed to explore the relationship between AFP response and clinical outcomes of HCC.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Medline and Cochrane library were searched for relevant articles published before March 20, 2019. The data were analyzed using RevMan5.3 software.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine articles with 4726 HCC patients were finally included for analysis. The pooled results showed that post-treatment AFP response was significantly associated with overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.35-0.47, P <.001), progression free survival (PFS) (HR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.39-0.54, P <.001) and recurrence free survival (RFS) (HR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.29-0.56, P <.001) of HCC patients.

CONCLUSION

post-treatment AFP response might be a useful prognostic marker for HCC patients.