SIR model with local and global infective contacts: A deterministic approach and applications

Fluctuations in tissue growth portray homeostasis as a critical state and long-time non-Markovian cell proliferation as Markovian

Tissue growth is an emerging phenomenon that results from the cell-level interplay between proliferation and apoptosis, which is crucial during embryonic development, tissue regeneration, as well as in pathological conditions such as cancer. In this theoretical article, we address the problem of stochasticity in tissue growth by first considering a minimal Markovian model of tissue size, quantified as the number of cells in a simulated tissue, subjected to both proliferation and apoptosis. We find two dynamic phases, growth and decay, separated by a critical state representing a homeostatic tissue. Since the main limitation of the Markovian model is its neglect of the cell cycle, we incorporated a refractory period that temporarily prevents proliferation immediately following cell division, as a minimal proxy for the cell cycle, and studied the model in the growth phase. Importantly, we obtained from this last model an effective Markovian rate, which accurately describes general trends of tissue size. This study shows that the dynamics of tissue growth can be theoretically conceptualized as a Markovian process where homeostasis is a critical state flanked by decay and growth phases. Notably, in the growing non-Markovian model, a Markovian-like growth process emerges at large time scales.

How Local Interactions Impact the Dynamics of an Epidemic

Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have long formed the basis for exploring epidemiological dynamics in a range of contexts, including infectious disease spread in human populations. Classic SIR models take a mean-field assumption, such that a susceptible individual has an equal chance of catching the disease from any infected individual in the population. In reality, spatial and social structure will drive most instances of disease transmission. Here we explore the impacts of including spatial structure in a simple SIR model. We combine an approximate mathematical model (using a pair approximation) and stochastic simulations to consider the impact of increasingly local interactions on the epidemic. Our key development is to allow not just extremes of 'local' (neighbour-to-neighbour) or 'global' (random) transmission, but all points in between. We find that even medium degrees of local interactions produce epidemics highly similar to those with entirely global interactions, and only once interactions are predominantly local do epidemics become substantially lower and later. We also show how intervention strategies to impose local interactions on a population must be introduced early if significant impacts are to be seen.

Dispersal Kernels may be Scalable: Implications from a Plant Pathogen

AIM

Understanding how spatial scale of study affects observed dispersal patterns can provide insights into spatiotemporal population dynamics, particularly in systems with significant long-distance dispersal (LDD). We aimed to investigate the dispersal gradients of two rusts of wheat with spores of similar size, mass, and shape, over multiple spatial scales. We hypothesized that a single dispersal kernel could fit the dispersal from all spatial scales well, and that it would be possible to obtain similar results in spatiotemporal increase of disease when modeling based on differing scales.

LOCATION

Central Oregon and St. Croix Island.

TAXA

Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, Triticum aestivum.

METHODS

We compared empirically-derived primary disease gradients of cereal rust across three spatial scales: local (inoculum source and sampling unit = 0.0254 m, spatial extent = 1.52m) field-wide (inoculum source = 1.52 m, sampling unit = 0.305 m, and spatial extent = 91.44 m), and regional (inoculum source and sampling unit = 152 m, spatial extent = 10.7 km). We then examined whether disease spread in spatially explicit simulations depended upon the scale at which data were collected by constructing a compartmental time-step model.

RESULTS

The three data sets could be fit well by a single inverse-power law dispersal kernel. Simulating epidemic spread at different spatial resolutions resulted in similar patterns of spatiotemporal spread. Dispersal kernel data obtained at one spatial scale can be used to represent spatiotemporal disease spread at a larger spatial scale.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Organisms spread by aerially dispersed small propagules that exhibit LDD may follow similar dispersal patterns over a several hundred- or thousand-fold expanse of spatial scale. Given that the primary mechanisms driving aerial dispersal remain constant, it may be possible to extrapolate across scales when empirical data are unavailable at a scale of interest.