Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Pancreatic NeuroendocrineTumors

Prognostic significance of the novel immunonutritional marker of cholesterol-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with non-metastatic breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Although there is a strong correlation between the novel cholesterol-to-lymphocyte ratio (CLR) and tumor survival, its prognostic significance in breast cancer (BC) is unknown. After analyzing the relationship between CLR and the overall survival (OS) of patients with BC, we created a predictive model.

METHODS

Following retrospective enrollment, 1316 patients with BC were randomized into two cohorts: validation (n = 392) and training (n = 924). Distinct factors within the training dataset were identified for OS by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses; two-tailed P-value < 0.05 were considered to indicate statistical significance. On this premise, we developed novel signals for survival prediction and utilized the calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic curves, and concordance index (C-index) to validate their efficacy across both datasets.

RESULTS

Patients with BC were categorized into two categories with differing prognoses based on the CLR score [hazard ratio = 0.492; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.286-0.846, P = 0.009]. A prediction nomogram was created based on multivariate analysis, which showed that N stage, postoperative pathological categorization, and CLR score were all independently correlated with OS. In the training [C-index = 0.831 (95% CI: 0.788-0.874)] and validation [C-index = 0.775 (95% CI: 0.694-0.856)] cohorts, the nomogram demonstrated favorable performance in predicting OS. In both the training and validation cohorts, it outperformed the traditional staging system [C-index = 0.702 (95% CI: 0.623-0.782)] and [C-index = 0.709 (95% CI: 0.570-0.847)]. The accurate prediction by the signature was further demonstrated by the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel immunonutritional marker CLR could function as a simplified, cost-effective, easily accessible, non-invasive, and readily promotive prognostic indicator for patients with early-stage BC and demonstrates superior predictive power than the traditional staging system.

Gender-related differences in patients with carcinoid syndrome: new insights from an Italian multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of neuroendocrine neoplasm (NEN) and related carcinoid syndrome (CaS) has increased markedly in recent decades, and women appear to be more at risk than men. As per other tumors, gender may be relevant in influencing the clinical and prognostic characteristics of NEN-associated CS. However, specific data on carcinoid syndrome (CaS) are still lacking.

PURPOSE

To evaluate gender differences in clinical presentation and outcome of CaS.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 144 CaS patients from 20 Italian high-volume centers was conducted. Clinical presentation, tumor characteristics, therapies, and outcomes (progression-free survival, PFS, overall survival, OS) were correlated to gender.

RESULTS

Ninety (62.5%) CaS patients were male. There was no gender difference in the site of primary tumor, tumor grade and clinical stage, as well as in treatments. Men were more frequently smokers (37.2%) and alcohol drinkers (17.8%) than women (9.5%, p = 0.002, and 3.7%, p = 0.004, respectively). Concerning clinical presentation, women showed higher median number of symptoms (p = 0.0007), more frequent abdominal pain, tachycardia, and psychiatric disorders than men (53.3% vs 70.4%, p = 0.044; 6.7% vs 31.5%, p = 0.001; 50.9% vs. 26.7%, p = 0.003, respectively). Lymph node metastases at diagnosis were more frequent in men than in women (80% vs 64.8%; p = 0.04), but no differences in terms of PFS (p = 0.51) and OS (p = 0.64) were found between gender.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Italian cohort, CaS was slightly more frequent in males than females. Gender-related differences emerged in the clinical presentation of CaS, as well as gender-specific risk factors for CaS development. A gender-driven clinical management of these patients should be advisable.

Incidence, survival, and prognostic factors for patients with gastrointestinal mixed neuroendocrine non-neuroendocrine neoplasms: a SEER population-based study

BACKGROUND

Mixed neuroendocrine non-neuroendocrine neoplasms (MiNENs) are a group of rare tumors with limited research currently available. This study aimed to analyze the incidence, survival, and prognostic factors of gastrointestinal MiNENs.

METHODS

We included data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2000 and 2019. We compared the clinicopathologic characteristics and survival rates between MiNENs and neuroendocrine tumors (NETs), and calculated the incidence of MiNENs. We utilized univariate and multivariate Cox analysis to assess independent factors of prognosis and established a nomogram to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year cancer-specific survival (CSS). Calibration and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to validate the accuracy and reliability of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical utility of the model.

RESULTS

Patients with gastrointestinal MiNENs had a poorer prognosis than those with NETs. The overall incidence of gastrointestinal MiNENs has been increasing annually. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that tumor size, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, and surgery were independent risk factors for CSS in MiNENs patients. Based on these risk factors, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year CSS nomogram model for MiNENs patients was established. Calibration, ROC, and DCA curves of the training and validation sets demonstrated that this model had good accuracy and clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

Gastrointestinal MiNENs are rare tumors with an increasing incidence rate. The nomogram model is expected to be an effective tool for personalized prognosis prediction in MiNENs patients, which may benefit clinical decision-making.

Development of a 3-MicroRNA Signature and Nomogram for Predicting the Survival of Patients with Uveal Melanoma Based on TCGA and GEO Databases

Background. The aim of this study was to apply bioinformatic analysis to develop a robust miRNA signature and construct a nomogram model in uveal melanoma (UM) to improve prognosis prediction. Methods. miRNA and mRNA sequencing data for 80 UM patients were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. The patients were further randomly assigned to a training set (n = 40, used to identify key miRNAs) and a testing set (n = 40, used to internally verify the signature). Then, miRNAs data of GSE84976 and GSE68828 were downloaded from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database for outside verification. Combining univariate analysis and LASSO methods for identifying a robust miRNA biomarker in training set and the signature was validated in testing set and outside dataset. A prognostic nomogram was constructed and combined with decision curve as well as reduction curve analyses to assess the application of clinical usefulness. Finally, we constructed a miRNA-mRNA regulator network in UM and conducted pathway enrichment analysis according to the mRNAs in the network. Results. In total, a 3-miRNA was identified and validated that can robustly predict UM patients’ survival. According to univariate and multivariate cox analyses, age at diagnosis, tumor node metastasis (TNM) classification, stage, and the 3-miRNA signature significantly correlated with the survival outcomes. These characteristics were used to establish nomogram. The nomogram worked well for predicting 1 and 3 years of overall survival time. The decision curve of nomogram revealed a good clinical usefulness of our nomogram. What’s more, a miRNA-mRNA network was constructed. Pathway enrichment showed that this network was largely involved in mRNA processing, the mRNA surveillance pathway, the spliceosome, and so on. Conclusions. We developed a 3-miRNA biomarker and constructed a prognostic nomogram, which may afford a quantitative tool for predicting the survival of UM. Our finding also provided some new potential targets for the treatment of UM.

Sex-Based Clinicopathologic and Survival Differences Among Patients with Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

INTRODUCTION

Sex-based differences in survival have emerged among patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs). Mechanisms driving these differences remain poorly understood. We aimed to further characterize sex-based clinicopathologic and survival differences among patients with PNETs and correlate divergent mutational signatures in these patients.

METHODS

The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was queried for PNET patients diagnosed 2004-2017 who underwent surgery. Clinicopathologic features were analyzed by sex. The overall survival (OS) of men and women by disease stage was compared using the Kaplan-Meier method. Differences in PNET mutational signatures were analyzed by querying the American Association for Cancer Research Genomics Evidence Neoplasia Information (AACR-GENIE) Cohort v11.0-public. Frequencies of mutational signatures were compared by Fischer's exact (FE) test, adjusting for multiple testing via the Benjamini-Hochberg correction.

RESULTS

About 15,202 patients met inclusion criteria from the NCDB; 51.9% were men and 48.1% were women. Men more frequently had tumors > 2 cm than women and more commonly had poorly or undifferentiated tumors. Despite this, lymph node positivity and distant metastases were similar. Differences in OS were only seen among those with early stage rather than stage 3 or 4 disease. MEN1 and DAXX mutations were more frequent among men with PNETs, whereas TP53 mutations were more frequent among women when assessed by FE test. However, neither of these mutational differences maintained statistical significance when adjusted for multiple testing.

CONCLUSION

Compared to women, men have larger tumors but similar rates of distant metastases at time of surgery. OS differences appear to be driven by patients with early-stage disease without clearly identifiable differences in mutational signatures between the sexes.

The risk and prognostic factors for G1 pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: A retrospective analysis of the SEER database

Background

Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) are rare neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) for which little is known about their clinical features, treatment options, and survival prognosis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk factors affecting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with grade 1 pNETs (G1 pNETs) and to provide a new theoretical basis for clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of individuals with G1 pNETs registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) database was performed. Risk factors affecting OS and CSS were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox proportional hazards model, and Fine-Gray competing-risk model.

Results

A total of 751 patients were included, most of whom were white (77.2%) women (53.9%) under the age of 60 years (54.9%), of whom 66 died of pNETs (8.78%) and 34 died of other causes (4.52%). Patients who were older than 60 years at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.866, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.242-2.805) had worse OS. And stage in the regional extent (HR = 1.777, 95% CI: 1.006-3.137) or distance extent (HR = 4.540, 95% CI: 2.439-8.453) had worse OS. Patients who delayed treatment after diagnosis had shorter CSS (delayed treatment < 1 month: HR = 1.933, 95% CI: 0.863-4.333; delayed treatment ≥ 1 month: HR = 2.208; 95% CI:1.047-4.654). Patients with lymph node metastasis (HR = 1.989, 95% CI: 1.137-3.479) or distant metastasis (HR = 5.625, 95% CI: 1.892-16.726) had worse CSS. Acceptance of surgery can significantly improve the patient’s OS and CSS. OS (partial pancreatectomy [PP]: HR = 0.350, 95% CI: 0.182-0.672; pancreatectomy and duodenectomy [PD]: HR = 0.426, 95% CI: 0.222-0.815; total pancreatectomy [TP]: HR = 0.495, 95% CI: 0.193-1.267). CSS(PP: HR = 0.148, 95% CI: 0.0054-0.401; PD: HR = 0.332, 95% CI: 0.150-0.730; TP: HR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.254-1.872).

Conclusion

Age and stage were identified as independent risk factors for OS. Delayed treatment, N stage and M stage were independent risk factors for CSS. Only surgery was identified as independent protective factors for OS and CSS.

Analysis of Clinical Characteristics and Survival in Patients With Functional Neuroendocrine Tumors of Gastrointestinal Origin

OBJECTIVES

Functional neuroendocrine tumors (FNETs) are characterized by excess secretion of disease-specific hormones. In this study, we attempted to define survival trends in patients with some of these uncommon tumors.

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, 529 patients with FNETs (gastrinoma, insulinoma, glucagonoma, VIPoma, and somatostatinoma) were identified. We analyzed patient and tumor characteristics, overall survival, and cancer-specific survival.

RESULTS

Functional neuroendocrine tumors were found to be more predominant in White patients older than 50 years. Most common FNETs were gastrinoma (56.3%) and insulinoma (23.8%). Most FNETs were found in the pancreas, with the second most common location being the small bowel. Surgery was the primary modality of treatment, used in 55.8% of the cases. Median overall survival was 9.8 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.9-11.8) with a median cancer-specific survival of 18.5 years (95% CI, 12.8-24.2). In multivariate analysis, age >50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 2.7; 95% CI, 2.02-3.64), no surgical resection (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.43-2.46), metastasis (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.0-4.5), and poor differentiation were associated with poor survival. Site and histology did not have a significant impact on survival (P = 0.82 and 0.57 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the most important prognostic factors for gastrointestinal FNETs.

A Prognostic Model Based on Nutritional Risk Index in Operative Breast Cancer

Background: The nutritional risk index (NRI) is an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in various cancers, but its prognostic value in breast cancer remains unclear. This study aimed to explore the relationship between the NRI and overall survival (OS) in breast cancer and to develop a predictive nomogram. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 1347 breast cancer patients who underwent mastectomy or lumpectomy between January 2011 and November 2012. Using a cutoff value of 110.59, patients were divided into a high-NRI group and a low-NRI group. OS was compared between the two groups. Clinicopathological factors independently associated with survival were used to construct a predictive nomogram. Results: Of the 1347 patients, 534 patients were classified as high NRI and 813 as low NRI. OS was significantly shorter in low-NRI patients. The 3- and 5-year OS rates were 87.3% and 73.4%, respectively, in the high-NRI group whereas they were 83.0% and 67.2%, respectively, in the low-NRI group. Cox regression analysis found that histopathological type, tumor size, lymph node status, progesterone receptor (PR) status, Ki-67, and NRI were independently associated with OS. Conclusions: NRI is an independent prognostic factor of OS in breast cancer patients. The proposed nomogram model may be a useful tool for individualized survival prediction.

Prognostic Nomogram Based on the Metastatic Lymph Node Ratio for T1-4N0-1M0 Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors After Surgery

Purpose

This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of the metastatic lymph node ratio (LNR) in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) and to develop and validate nomograms to predict 5-, 7-, and 10-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates for pNETs after surgical resection.

Methods

The demographics and clinicopathological information of T_1-4N_0-1M₀ pNET patients between 2004 and 2018 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. X-tile software was used to determine the best cutoff value for the LNR. Patients were randomly divided into the training and the validation groups. A Cox regression model was used in the training group to obtain independent prognostic factors to develop nomograms for predicting OS and CSS. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the nomograms. Patients were divided into four groups according to the model scores, and their survival curves were generated by the Kaplan–Meier method.

Results

A total of 806 patients were included in this study. The best cutoff value for the LNR was 0.16. The LNR was negatively correlated with both OS and CSS. Age, sex, marital status, primary site, grade, the LNR and radiotherapy were used to construct OS and CSS nomograms. In the training group, the C-index was 0.771 for OS and 0.778 for CSS. In the validation group, the C-index was 0.737 for OS and 0.727 for CSS. The calibration curves and AUC also indicated their good predictability. DCA demonstrated that the nomograms displayed better performance than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system (8th edition). Risk stratification indicated that patients with higher risk had a worse prognosis.

Conclusions

The LNR is an independent negative prognostic factor for pNETs. The nomograms we built can accurately predict long-term survival for pNETs after surgery.

Who do we miss when screening for postpartum depression? A population-based study in a Swedish region

BACKGROUND

Universal screening for postpartum depression is crucial for early detection, interventions and support. The aim of this study was to describe the proportion of, and explore risk factors for, women not being offered screening, as well as for declining an offer or not being screened due to any other unknown reason.

METHODS

Socioeconomic, obstetrical and neonatal data, extracted from the Swedish Pregnancy Registry, for 9,959 pregnancies recorded for the Östergötland county between 2016 and 2018 were linked to Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) screening results at 6-8 weeks postpartum, extracted from medical records. Risk factors were assessed using logistic regression models and with a nomogram for easy visualization.

RESULTS

In total, there were no recorded offers of EPDS screening in the medical records for 30.0% of women at the postpartum follow-up. Women born outside of Sweden and women reporting poor self-rated health were at increased risk of not being offered screening for postpartum depression.

LIMITATIONS

There is a possibility that women were offered screening or were screened, but this was incorrectly or never recorded in medical records.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of women were offered screening for postpartum depression, but there is room for improvement in order to achieve universal screening. Awareness among healthcare providers of the risk factors for not screening might increase adherence to guidelines for universal screening. Overcoming barriers for screening and raising the topic of mental-health issues for postpartum women should be prioritized.

Prognostic Nomograms to Predict Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival of Patients With Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this research was to construct and validate prognostic nomograms predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs).

METHODS

We extracted 3787 patients with pNETs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. Nomograms for estimating 3- and 5-year OS and CSS were first established. Then, we used Harrell's Concordance Index, calibration plots, and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve to evaluate the nomograms. The Kaplan-Meier curve was plotted to evaluate the different survival outcomes.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, age, grade, functional status, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, and surgery were associated with OS and CSS. The established nomograms had good discriminative ability, with a Harrell's Concordance Index of 0.830 for OS and 0.855 for CSS. The calibration plots also revealed good agreement. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve values of the nomograms predicting 3- and 5-year OS and CSS rates were 0.836, 0.816 and 0.859, 0.841, respectively. In addition, Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that patients with higher risk had worse survival outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

We have proposed and validated the nomograms predicting OS and CSS of pNETs. They can be convenient individualized tools to facilitate clinical decision making.

Prognostic factors in patients with gallbladder adenocarcinoma identified using competing-risks analysis: A study of cases in the SEER database

A competing-risks model was developed in this study to identify the significant prognostic factors and evaluate the cumulative incidence of cause-specific death in gallbladder adenocarcinoma (GBAC), with the aim of providing guidance on effective clinical treatments.All patients with GBAC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 1973 to 2015 were identified. The potential prognostic factors were identified using competing-risks analyses implemented using the R and SAS statistical software packages. We calculated the cumulative incidence function (CIF) for cause-specific death and death from other causes at each time point. The Fine-Gray proportional-subdistribution-hazards model was then applied in univariate and multivariate analyses to test the differences in CIF between different groups and identify independent prognostic factors.This study included 3836 eligible patients who had been enrolled from 2004 to 2015 in the SEER database. The univariate analysis indicated that age, race, AJCC stage, RS, tumor size, SEER historic stage, grade, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy and adjuvant therapy (RCT, SRT, SCT and SRCT) were significant factors affecting the probability of death due to GBAC. The multivariate analysis indicated that age, race, AJCC stage, RS status, tumor size, grade and SRT were independent prognostic factors affecting GBAC cancer-specific death. A nomogram model was constructed based on multivariate models for death related to GBAC.We have constructed the first competing-risks nomogram for GBAC. The model was found to perform well. This novel validated prognostic model may facilitate the choosing of beneficial treatment strategies and help when predicting survival.

Influence of Gender on Therapy and Outcome of Neuroendocrine Tumors of Gastroenteropancreatic Origin: A Single-Center Analysis

Introduction

Gender-specific treatment is gaining growing attention in various fields of medicine. In gastrointestinal cancer, influence of sex on outcome has been discussed, while this has not been the case in neuroendocrine tumors. Overall, the incidence of neuroendocrine neoplasms is rising, especially for appendiceal neuroendocrine neoplasms in women. Also, women seem to have a slight advantage in response to therapy, especially for liver metastases.

Objectives

This single-center analysis aimed to investigate gender-specific differences in our cohort related to distribution, therapy, and outcome.

Methods

Patients from the NET registry as well as the clinic database were evaluated retrospectively concerning overall survival and response to therapy with respect to gender. A subgroup analysis was carried out for patients with low grading and response to chemotherapy, as well as for patients with good and moderate grading receiving peptide receptor radionuclide therapy and for a group of patients with liver surgery.

Results

No specific differences could be detected for overall survival or response to therapy between male and female patients. Mean survival was estimated with 242.2 months (±10.39 SD) altogether and 221.7 months (± 13.02 SD) for male patients and 253.5 months (±15.24 SD) for female patients from the NET registry from initial diagnosis. There was no significant difference between female and male patients (p = 0.136). For patients receiving chemotherapy, overall survival from initial diagnosis was calculated with 26 months (±2.59) and did not show any significant differences between female and male patients 24.8 months (±2.81 SD) vs. 27.8 months (±3.86 SD, p = 0.87). Patients undergoing peptide receptor radionuclide therapy showed a median progression-free survival of 26.9 months (±2.82 SD), with 16.9 (±5.595 SD) and 26.9 months (±3.019 SD) for male and female patients, respectively (p = 0.2). In the group of patients with liver surgery, female patients reached an estimated overall survival of 64.7 months (±4.16 SD), male patients 65.1 months (±2.79 SD, p = 0.562).

Conclusion

Our cohort did not reveal significant differences in outcome and response to therapy with regards to gender.

A prognostic nomogram in patients with distant metastasis of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a population-based study

Aim: Prognostic factors in patients with distant metastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) remain uncertain. The purpose of our study is to establish a nomogram to predict survival outcomes in patients with metastatic PNETs. Methods: A total of 878 patients diagnosed with PNETs in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database between 2004 and 2016 were retrospectively identified. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with log-rank test was used to analyze survival outcomes. The nomogram was established after a univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. Results: The independent prognostic variables, including age, tumor grade and primary site surgery were applied to develop a nomogram. The original concordance index was 0.773 (95% CI: 0.751-0.795), and the bias-corrected concordance index was 0.769 (95% CI: 0.748-0.791). The internal calibration curves showed well consistency and veracity in predicting cancer-specific survival probabilities. Conclusion: A nomogram was constructed and verified to predict survival outcomes in patients with distant-stage PNETs.

Prognostic and predictive factors on overall survival and surgical outcomes in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: recent advances and controversies

Introduction: Recent advances in diagnostic modalities and therapeutic agents have raised the importance of prognostic factors in predicting overall survival, as well as predictive factors for surgical outcomes, in tailoring therapeutic strategies of patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (panNENs).Areas covered: Numerous recent studies of panNEN patients report the prognostic values of a number of clinically related factors (clinical, laboratory, imaging, treatment-related factors), pathological factors (histological, classification, grading) and molecular factors on long-term survival. In addition, an increasing number of studies showed the usefulness of various factors, specifically biomarkers and molecular makers, in predicting recurrence and mortality related to surgical treatment. Recent findings (from the last 3 years) in each of these areas, as well as recent controversies, are reviewed.Expert commentary: The clinical importance of prognostic and predictive factors for panNENs is markedly increased for both overall outcome and post resection, as a result of recent advances in all aspects of the diagnosis, management and treatment of panNENs. Despite the proven prognostic utility of routinely used tumor grading/classification and staging systems, further studies are required to establish these novel prognostic factors to support their routine clinical use.

A prognostic nomogram for distal bile duct cancer from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database based on the STROBE compliant

In this study, we aimed to develop a reliable nomogram to estimate individualized prognosis for patients with distal bile duct cancer (DBDC) and compare the predictive value with the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system.Data of 1110 patients diagnosed with DBDC were recruited from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 1973 and 2015. All patients were randomly divided into the training (n = 777) and validation (n = 333) cohorts, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression was performed to identify the independent risk factors. The Akaike information criterion was used to select covariates for constructing a nomogram. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by concordance index (C-index) and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) compared to tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system.A nomogram integrating 8 risk factors was developed with a higher C-index than that of the TNM staging system (training data set, 0.70 vs 0.61; validation data set, 0.71 vs 0.57). The AUROCs of the nomogram for 1-year and 3-year overall survival (OS) predication were 0.76 and 0.78 in the training cohort, 0.78 and 0.77 in the validation cohort. However, AUROCs of the TNM stage for predicting 1-year and 3-year OS were all below 0.60. Calibration curves showed the optimal agreement in predicating OS between nomogram and actual observation. In addition, this nomogram can effectively distinguish the OS between low and high-risk groups divided by the median score (P < .01).Present study was the first one to construct a prognostic nomogram of DBDC patients, which has the potential to provide individual prediction of OS.

Prognostic nomogram for overall survival in upper aerodigestive tract extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type, stages IE and IIE: A SEER-based study

The present study aimed to develop a widely accepted prognostic nomogram for stage IE and IIE extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL) of the upper aerodigestive tract by using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database. A total of 396 patients with ENKTCL were included in the present study and were divided into training (n=280) and validation (n=116) cohorts. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model were used to evaluate the prognostic value of multiple clinical parameters on overall survival. The C-index and calibration curves were both used to determine the predictive and discriminatory capacities of the nomogram. In the training cohort, multivariate analysis demonstrated that age, primary site, radiation therapy and stage were independent prognostic factors. Nomograms with a C-index of 0.717 in the training cohort and a C-index of 0.737 in the validation cohort were developed. The calibration curves reported excellent consistency between predicted and real survival in patients with ENKTCL. In addition, a subgroup analysis of 264 patients who were receiving chemotherapy revealed that based on chemotherapy, supplementation with radiation therapy was significantly beneficial to patients survival. In conclusion, the present study demonstrated that this prognostic model may serve as a novel tool for improving prediction of survival outcomes and may therefore be used in clinical applications.

Prognostic nomograms to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with pelvic chondrosarcoma

Background

The pelvis is the most common site of chondrosarcoma (CS), and the prognosis for patients with pelvic CS is worse than that for patients with CS in the extremities. However, clinicians have had few tools for estimating the likelihood of survival in patients with pelvic CS. Our aim was to develop nomograms to predict survival of patients with pelvic CS.

Methods

Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of patients with pelvic CS between 2004 and 2016 were retrieved for retrospective analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors. On the basis of the results of the multivariate analyses, nomograms were constructed to predict the likelihood of 3‐ and 5‐year overall survival (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) of patients with pelvic CS. The concordance index (C‐index) and calibration curves were used to test the models.

Results

In univariate and multivariate analyses of OS, sex, pathologic grade, tumor size, tumor stage, and surgery were identified as the independent risk factors. In univariate and multivariate analyses of CSS, pathologic grade, tumor size, tumor stage, and surgery were identified as the independent risk factors. These characteristics except surgery were integrated in the nomograms for predicting 3‐ and 5‐year OS and CSS, and the C‐indexes were 0.758 and 0.786, respectively.

Conclusion

The nomograms precisely and individually predict OS and CSS of patients with pelvic CS and could aid in personalized prognostic evaluation and individualized clinical decision‐making.

Overall survival in patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma: a SEER-based nomogram analysis

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to identify the determinants of overall survival (OS) within patients over 40 years old with surgically resected pancreatic carcinoma (PC), and to develop a nomogram with the intention of OS predicting.

METHODS

A total of 6341 patients of 40 years of age or later with surgically resected PC between 2010 and 2015 were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and randomly assigned into training set (4242 cases) and validation set (2099 cases). A nomogram was constructed for predicting 1-, 2- and 3-years OS based on univairate and multivariate Cox regression. The C-index and calibration plot were adopted to assess the nomogram performance.

RESULTS

Our analysis showed that age, location of carcinoma in pancreas, tumor grade, TNM stage, size of carcinoma together with lymph node ratio (LNR) were considered to be independent overall survival predictors. A nomogram based on these six factors was developed with C-index being 0.680 (95%CI: 0.667-0.693). All calibration curves of OS fitted well. The OS curves stratified by nomogram-predicted probability score (≥20, 10-19 and < 10) demonstrated statistically significant difference not only within training set but also in validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

The present nomogram for OS predicting can serve as the efficacious survival-predicting model and assist in accurate decision-making for patients over 40 years old with surgically resected PC.

The impact of surgery in metastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a competing risk analysis

Aim The role of surgery in the treatment of metastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) was controversial. The objectives of this study were to illustrate the impact of surgery in improving the prognosis of patients with metastatic PNETs and build nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) based on a large population-based cohort. Methods Patients diagnosed with metastatic PNETs between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively collected. Nomograms for estimating OS and CSS were established based on Cox regression model and Fine and Grey's model. The precision of the nomograms was evaluated and compared using concordance index (C-index) and the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Results The study cohort included 1966 patients with metastatic PNETs. It was shown that the surgery provided survival benefit for all groups of patients with metastatic PNETs. In the whole study cohort, 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS were 51.5, 37.1 and 29.4% and 53.0, 38.9 and 31.1%, respectively. The established nomograms were well calibrated, and had good discriminative ability, with C-indexes of 0.773 for OS prediction and 0.774 for CSS prediction. Conclusions Patients with metastatic PNETs could benefit from surgery when the surgery tolerance was acceptable. The established nomograms could stratify patients who were categorized as tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) IV stage into groups with diverse prognoses, showing better discrimination and calibration of the established nomograms, compared with 8th TNM stage system in predicting OS and CSS for patients with metastatic PNETs.