Vaccination passports: Challenges for a future of air transportation

Epidemiological contemplation for a currently pragmatic COVID-19 health passport: a perspective

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global pandemic that has wreaked havoc on the lives of millions of people around the world. Confinement measures aim to reduce the epidemic's spread and minimize the burden of morbidity and mortality. In response to the challenges caused by the pandemic, digital health passports have been developed exponentially. We highlight the latent epidemiological barriers to health passports to achieve standardized digital care platforms. This review paper not only highlights the epidemiological barriers but also articulates the possible infrastructure required to make the International Standard for a multi-factor authenticated and validated health passport.

Geographical and practical challenges in the implementation of digital health passports for cross-border COVID-19 pandemic management: a narrative review and framework for solutions

The rapid global spread of infectious diseases, epitomized by the recent COVID-19 pandemic, has highlighted the critical need for effective cross-border pandemic management strategies. Digital health passports (DHPs), which securely store and facilitate the sharing of critical health information, including vaccination records and test results, have emerged as a promising solution to enable safe travel and access to essential services and economic activities during pandemics. However, the implementation of DHPs faces several significant challenges, both related to geographical disparities and practical considerations, necessitating a comprehensive approach for successful global adoption. In this narrative review article, we identify and elaborate on the critical geographical and practical barriers that hinder global adoption and the effective utilization of DHPs. Geographical barriers are complex, encompassing disparities in vaccine access, regulatory inconsistencies, differences across countries in data security and users' privacy policies, challenges related to interoperability and standardization, and inadequacies in technological infrastructure and limited access to digital technologies. Practical challenges include the possibility of vaccine contraindications and breakthrough infections, uncertainties surrounding natural immunity, and limitations of standard tests in assessing infection risk. To address geographical disparities and enhance the functionality and interoperability of DHPs, we propose a framework that emphasizes international collaboration to achieve equitable access to vaccines and testing resources. Furthermore, we recommend international cooperation to establish unified vaccine regulatory frameworks, adopting globally accepted standards for data privacy and protection, implementing interoperability protocols, and taking steps to bridge the digital divide. Addressing practical challenges requires a meticulous approach to assessing individual risk and augmenting DHP implementation with rigorous health screenings and personal infection prevention measures. Collectively, these initiatives contribute to the development of robust and inclusive cross-border pandemic management strategies, ultimately promoting a safer and more interconnected global community in the face of current and future pandemics.

COVID-19, travel restrictions and environmental consequences

The component of human life that has been most significantly altered by the COVID-19 epidemic is travel. Due to the upheaval produced by the pandemic breakout, countries are becoming increasingly avaricious and are scrambling to stockpile vaccines. The world has been locked down to reduce/control the pandemic outbreak, driving countries to shut their doors to other people from countries. The recent pandemic has had a short-term, positive effect on the environment, but travel restrictions have caused problems for the common person and are expected to deteriorate more soon, necessitating longer quarantines, vaccination requirements, vaccine passports, and immunization certificates required by countries for safe travel. Thus, this study has three objectives. First, we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on travel and the environment, as well as the role that tourists play in the transmission of the virus. Second, we examine how countries are handling COVID-19 vaccines. Finally, we pinpoint differences in vaccination coverage.

A novel resilience analysis methodology for airport networks system from the perspective of different epidemic prevention and control policy responses

As the COVID-19 pandemic fades, the aviation industry is entering a fast recovery period. To analyze airport networks' post-pandemic resilience during the recovery process, this paper proposes a Comprehensive Resilience Assessment (CRA) model approach using the airport networks of China, Europe, and the U.S.A as case studies. The impact of COVID-19 on the networks is analyzed after populating the models of these networks with real air traffic data. The results suggest that the pandemic has caused damage to all three networks, although the damages to the network structures of Europe and the U.S.A are more severe than the damage in China. The analysis suggests that China, as the airport network with less network performance change, has a more stable level of resilience. The analysis also shows that the different levels of stringency policy in prevention and control measures during the epidemic directly affected the recovery rate of the network. This paper provides new insights into the impact of the pandemic on airport network resilience.

Cost benefit analysis of alternative testing and quarantine policies for travelers for infection control: A case study of Singapore during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Border control mitigates local infections but bears a heavy economic cost, especially for tourism-reliant countries. While studies have supported the efficacy of border control in suppressing cross-border transmission, the trade-off between costs from imported and secondary cases and from lost economic activities has not been studied. This case study of Singapore during the COVID-19 pandemic aims to understand the impacts of varying quarantine length and testing strategies on the economy and health system. Additionally, we explored the impact of permitting unvaccinated travelers to address emerging equity concerns. We assumed that community transmission is stable and vaccination rates are high enough that inbound travelers are not dissuaded from traveling.

Methods

The number of travelers was predicted considering that longer quarantine reduces willingness to travel. A micro-simulation model predicted the number of COVID-19 cases among travelers, the resultant secondary cases, and the probability of being symptomatic in each group. The incremental net monetary benefit (INB) of Singapore was quantified under each border-opening policy compared to pre-opening status, based on tourism receipts, cost/profit from testing and quarantine, and cost and health loss due to COVID-19 cases.

Results

Compared to polymerase chain reaction (PCR), rapid antigen test (ART) detects fewer imported cases but results in fewer secondary cases. Longer quarantine results in fewer cases but lower INB due to reduced tourism receipts. Assuming the proportion of unvaccinated travelers is small (8% locally and 24% globally), allowing unvaccinated travelers will accrue higher INB without exceeding the intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. The highest monthly INB from all travelers is $2,236.24 m, with 46.69 ICU cases per month, achieved with ARTs at pre-departure and on arrival without quarantine. The optimal policy in terms of highest INB is robust under changes to various model assumptions. Among all cost-benefit components, the top driver for INB is tourism receipts.

Conclusions

With high vaccination rates locally and globally alongside stable community transmission, opening borders to travelers regardless of vaccination status will increase economic growth in the destination country. The caseloads remain manageable without exceeding ICU capacity, and costs of cases are offset by the economic value generated from travelers.

The influencing factors of digital health passport adoption and acceptance during COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Background

The COVID-19 outbreak has left a destructive trail around the world in terms of deaths, travel restrictions, trade deficits, and an economy that is collapsing, including job losses, real estate, health benefit loss, and a decrease in the quality of access to care and services in almost all sectors, as well as generally in the overall quality of life. The successful development of COVID-19 vaccines may hasten the acceleration of global post-pandemic recovery by vaccinating residents, with a particular focus on important groups, in order to decrease secondary transmission. This will facilitate the easing of enforced restrictions on global and local travel, the tourism industry, education sectors, and other aspects of social life. Vaccinating residents may also help reduce the risk of secondary transmission. The efforts that Saudi Arabia made to control the epidemic were outstanding on all fronts and in all spheres, including the health, education, commerce, and tourism industries, among others.

Objective

The purpose of this research was to investigate the elements that influence a traveler's decision to acquire and use a digital health passport (DHP), which was introduced by the Tawakkalna application in Saudi Arabia at the COVID-19 conference.

Methods

The technology acceptance model (TAM) and the information system success model (ISSM) were the primary theoretical frameworks that guided this investigation. The terms "perceived ease of use" (PEOU), "perceived usefulness" (PU), "information quality" (IQ), "service quality" (SQ), and "net benefit" (NB) were applied in order to investigate the user's acceptance and use of the DHP, as well as how it contributes to the facilitation of traveling and public perception toward using the DHP.

Results

In order to assess the validity of the proposed model and its four assumptions, a survey was sent through social media platforms to get responses from nationals and residents of Saudi Arabia. The SPSS program was used to evaluate a total of 103 replies that were considered valid. Following the completion of the study, the findings revealed that PEOU, PU, IQ, SQ, and NB all had favorable impacts on the use of DHP.

Conclusion

PEOU, PU, IQ, and SQ have a significant relationship with NB that affects the public's acceptance and use of DHP. This study has established validity and reliability while testing the relationship between the variables suggested in the research model.

COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Summary of Recent Research, Policy Consideration and Future Research Directions

The COVID-19 pandemic can be considered an unparalleled disruption to the aviation industry in the last century. Starting with an at-that-time inconceivable reduction in the number of flights from March 2020 to May 2020, the aviation industry has been trying to navigate through and out of the crisis. This process is accompanied with a significant number of scientific studies, reporting on the direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aviation and vice versa. This paper reviews the impacts in context of the recent literature. We have collected nearly 200 well-published papers on the subject in the years 2021/2022 and dissected them into a framework of eight categories, built around: airlines, airports, passengers, workforce, markets, contagion, sustainability, and economics. We highlight the essence of findings in the literature and derive a set of future research directions and policy considerations which we deem important on the way towards pandemic-resilient aviation.

STARTUPS: Founding airlines during COVID-19 - A hopeless endeavor or an ample opportunity for a better aviation system?

The devastating impact of COVID-19 on aviation is unprecedented and undoubted in the recent sci-entific literature, with many studies having dissected different facets of COVID-19-induced changes to the industry. A few studies have stepped further and highlighted that the COVID-19 pandemic could have positive long-term impacts on aviation. Given that traditional air carriers are known to be reluctant for performing high-risk experiments outside their business-as-usual, parts of hope for a better aviation future rests on novel players entering the industry. The pandemic - against common perception and odds - might have created a rare opportunity for airline startups to enter the market. In this study, we first dissect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aviation and how it possibly created a breeding ground for new airlines. We propose a framework of eight facets, STARTUPS, covering flight Suspensions, Talents, Aircraft, Recovery, Travel demand, Uniquity, Policy making, and Strategy. Moreover, we analyze the business model and markets of 46 airline startups, established or becoming active during the pandemic. Our study is concluded with a dis-cussion on the risk factors for airline startups during the COVID-19 pandemic and induced policy challenges. Our analysis, we believe, is complementary to existing studies on COVID-19, leveraging a novel perspective on the pandemic and the aviation industry.

Conflicting attitudes: Analyzing social media data to understand the early discourse on COVID-19 passports

In several countries, vaccine passports are being encouraged to hasten the return to some form of normalcy amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccine passport is a digital or paper document that may serve as proof of the COVID-19 vaccine, thereby allowing entry to public venues, sporting events, air travel, and unrestricted access to other facilities. This study explores how the COVID-19 passport is being discussed and perceived on Twitter and the prominent entities involved in the early discourse on the issue. Twitter messages were theoretically analyzed for Health Belief Model (HBM) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) variables, as well as message source, engagement, and attitudes towards vaccination certificates. Using quantitative content analysis, tweets were coded on nine dimensions: account type, tweeter profile, tweet content, tweet modality, attitude, self-efficacy, perceived barriers, benefits, and action cues. Most of the tweets originated from personal accounts, followed by media organizations, media-related personalities, politicians, and the travel industry. A significant number of tweets were from male Twitter users. Our analysis revealed that most tweeters had a favorable attitude towards the COVID-19 passports. Unfavorable attitudes toward the COVID-19 passport were based on reasons such as a lack of common standard or consensus, and personal freedoms & human rights. Tweets highlighting the benefits of COVID-19 passports cited travel as the primary reason. Based on a combination of technical, legal, and ethical practices, our study offers a set of vital recommendations for governments, health organizations, and businesses that may help stimulate the acceptance of vaccine passports.

Measuring Beijing's international air connectivity and suggestions for improvement post COVID-19

This study empirically measures Beijing's international air connectivity through descriptive statistics and various connectivity indexes. In particular, we comprehensively benchmark Beijing's international air connectivity with other major international exchange centers and gateway airports around the world. It is found that, although Beijing has direct flights to a comparable number of foreign destinations, the city still significantly lags behind other major counterparts in international air connectivity. This is due to Beijing's inferior connection quality in terms of flight frequency, number of seats, flying distance, and its poor international transfer capability. Moreover, a gravity-type model is applied to investigate the determinants of Beijing's route-level direct flight traffic. An index of potential market size is calculated for a sample including candidate overseas airports without direct flights with Beijing. It is found that Beijing has already opened direct flights to most of the candidate airports that have high market potentials. The air transport market potentials to major B&R (Belt-and-Road) cities are very low. However, given China's growing trade and economic ties with the B&R countries, Beijing could consider more favorable policies in support of direct flight operations to B&R countries. It is more important for Beijing to upgrade air connectivity quality by liberalizing restrictions on flight frequency and airfare. The newly opened Beijing Daxing Airport adds valuable capacity for Beijing to better explore international connectivity. Although COVID-19 pandemic forces Beijing to shut down international flight operations until now, the city needs to formulate clearer long-term strategies to improve international its air connectivity.

Travel Bubbles in Air Transportation: Myth or Reality?

Aviation has been hit hard by COVID-19, with passengers stranded in remote destinations, airlines filing for bankruptcy, and uncertain demand scenarios for the future. Travel bubbles are discussed as one possible solution, meaning countries which have successfully constrained the spread of COVID-19 gradually increase their mutual international flights, returning to a degree of normality. This study aims to answer the question of whether travel bubbles are indeed observable in flight data for the year 2020. We take the year 2019 as reference and then search for anomalies in countries’ flight bans and recoveries, which could possibly be explained by having successfully implemented a travel bubble. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to try to address the identification of COVID-19 travel bubbles in real data. Our methodology and findings lead to several important insights regarding policy making, problems associated with the concept of travel bubbles, and raise interesting avenues for future research.

Quantitative method for resilience assessment framework of airport network during COVID-19

The resilience and vulnerability of airport networks are significant challenges during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Previous studies considered node failure of networks under natural disasters and extreme weather. Herein, we propose a complex network methodology combined with data-driven to assess the resilience of airport networks toward global-scale disturbance using the Chinese airport network (CAN) and the European airport network (EAN) as a case study. The assessment framework includes vulnerability and resilience analyses from the network- and node-level perspectives. Subsequently, we apply the framework to analyze the airport networks in China and Europe. Specifically, real air traffic data for 232 airports in China and 82 airports in Europe are selected to form the CAN and EAN, respectively. The complex network analysis reveals that the CAN and the EAN are scale-free small-world networks, that are resilient to random attacks. However, the connectivity and vulnerability of the CAN are inferior to those of the EAN. In addition, we select the passenger throughput from the top-50 airports in China and Europe to perform a comparative analysis. By comparing the resilience evaluation of individual airports, we discovered that the factors of resilience assessment of an airport network for global disturbance considers the network metrics and the effect of government policy in actual operations. Additionally, this study also proves that a country's emergency response-ability towards the COVID-19 has a significantly affectes the recovery of its airport network.