Adaptive monitoring in the real world: proof of concept

Incorporating uncertainty in Indigenous sea Country monitoring with Bayesian statistics: Towards more informed decision-making

Partnerships in marine monitoring combining Traditional Ecological Knowledge and western science are developing globally to improve our understanding of temporal changes in ecological communities that better inform coastal management practices. A fuller communication between scientists and Indigenous partners about the limitations of monitoring results to identify change is essential to the impact of monitoring datasets on decision-making. Here we present a 5-year co-developed case study from a fish monitoring partnership in northwest Australia showing how uncertainty estimated by Bayesian models can be incorporated into monitoring management indicators. Our simulation approach revealed there was high uncertainty in detecting immediate change over the following monitoring year when translated to health performance indicators. Incorporating credibility estimates into health assessments added substantial information to monitoring trends, provided a deeper understanding of monitoring limitations and highlighted the importance of carefully selecting the way we evaluate management performance indicators.

Sustained reduction in numbers of Australian fur seal pups: Implications for future population monitoring

Fur seal populations in the Southern Hemisphere were plundered in the late 1700s and early 1800s to provide fur for a clothing industry. Millions of seals were killed resulting in potentially major ecosystem changes across the Southern Hemisphere, the consequences of which are unknown today. Following more than a century of population suppression, partly through on-going harvesting, many of the fur seal populations started to recover in the late 1900s. Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), one of the most geographically constrained fur seal species, followed this trend. From the 1940s to 1986, pup production remained at approximately 10,000 per year, then significant growth commenced. By 2007, live pup abundance had recovered to approximately 21,400 per year and recovery was expected to continue However, a species-wide survey in 2013 recorded a 20% decline, to approximately 16,500 live pups. It was not known if this decline was due to 2013 being a poor breeding year or a true population reduction. Here we report the results of a population-wide survey conducted in 2017 and annual monitoring at the most productive colony, Seal Rocks, Victoria that recorded a large decline in live pup abundance (-28%). Sustained lower pup numbers at Seal Rocks from annual counts between 2012–2017 (mean = 2908 ± 372 SD), as well as the population-wide estimate of 16,903 live pups in 2017, suggest that the pup numbers for the total population have remained at the lower level observed in 2013 and that the 5-yearly census results are not anomalies or representative of poor breeding seasons. Potential reasons for the decline, which did not occur range-wide but predominantly in the most populated and long-standing breeding sites, are discussed. To enhance adaptive management of this species, methods for future monitoring of the population are also presented. Australian fur seals occupy several distinct regions influenced by different currents and upwellings: range-wide pup abundance monitoring enables comparisons of ecosystem status across these regions. Forces driving change in Australian fur seal pup numbers are likely to play across other marine ecosystems, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere where most fur seals live.

Representation and complementarity of the long-term coral monitoring on the Great Barrier Reef

Effective environmental management hinges on efficient and targeted monitoring, which in turn should adapt to increasing disturbance regimes that now characterize most ecosystems. Habitats and biodiversity of Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the world's largest coral reef ecosystem, are in declining condition, prompting a review of the effectiveness of existing coral monitoring programs. Applying a regional model of coral cover (i.e., the most widely used proxy for coral reef condition globally) within major benthic communities, we assess the representation and complementarity of existing long-term coral reef monitoring programs on the GBR. We show that existing monitoring has captured up to 45% of the environmental diversity on the GBR, while some geographic areas (including major hotspots of cyclone activity over the last 30 yr) have remained unmonitored. Further, we identified complementary groups of reefs characterized by similar benthic community composition and similar coral cover trajectories since 1996. The mosaic of their distribution across the GBR reflects spatial variation in the cumulative impact of multiple acute disturbances, as well as spatial gradients in coral recovery potential. Representation and complementarity, in combination with other performance assessment criteria, can inform the cost-effective design and stratification of future surveys. Based on these results, we formulate recommendations to assist with the design of future long-term coral reef monitoring programs.

Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems

Natural and seminatural ecosystems must be at the forefront of efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In the urgency of current circumstances, ecosystem restoration represents a range of available, efficient, and effective solutions to cut net greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Although mitigation success can be measured by monitoring changing fluxes of greenhouse gases, adaptation is more complicated to measure, and reductions in a wide range of risks for biodiversity and people must be evaluated. Progress has been made in the monitoring and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation measures, but more emphasis on testing the effectiveness of proposed strategies is necessary. It is essential to take an integrated view of mitigation, adaptation, biodiversity, and the needs of people, to realize potential synergies and avoid conflict between different objectives.

High Arctic ecosystem states: Conceptual models of vegetation change to guide long-term monitoring and research

Vegetation change has consequences for terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning and may involve climate feedbacks. Hence, when monitoring ecosystem states and changes thereof, the vegetation is often a primary monitoring target. Here, we summarize current understanding of vegetation change in the High Arctic-the World's most rapidly warming region-in the context of ecosystem monitoring. To foster development of deployable monitoring strategies, we categorize different kinds of drivers (disturbances or stresses) of vegetation change either as pulse (i.e. drivers that occur as sudden and short events, though their effects may be long lasting) or press (i.e. drivers where change in conditions remains in place for a prolonged period, or slowly increases in pressure). To account for the great heterogeneity in vegetation responses to climate change and other drivers, we stress the need for increased use of ecosystem-specific conceptual models to guide monitoring and ecological studies in the Arctic. We discuss a conceptual model with three hypothesized alternative vegetation states characterized by mosses, herbaceous plants, and bare ground patches, respectively. We use moss-graminoid tundra of Svalbard as a case study to discuss the documented and potential impacts of different drivers on the possible transitions between those states. Our current understanding points to likely additive effects of herbivores and a warming climate, driving this ecosystem from a moss-dominated state with cool soils, shallow active layer and slow nutrient cycling to an ecosystem with warmer soil, deeper permafrost thaw, and faster nutrient cycling. Herbaceous-dominated vegetation and (patchy) bare ground would present two states in response to those drivers. Conceptual models are an operational tool to focus monitoring efforts towards management needs and identify the most pressing scientific questions. We promote greater use of conceptual models in conjunction with a state-and-transition framework in monitoring to ensure fit for purpose approaches. Defined expectations of the focal systems' responses to different drivers also facilitate linking local and regional monitoring efforts to international initiatives, such as the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program.

Building a stakeholder-led common vision increases the expected cost-effectiveness of biodiversity conservation

Uniting diverse stakeholders through communication, education or building a collaborative 'common vision' for biodiversity management is a recommended approach for enabling effective conservation in regions with multiple uses. However, socially focused strategies such as building a collaborative vision can require sharing scarce resources (time and financial resources) with the on-ground management actions needed to achieve conservation outcomes. Here we adapt current prioritisation tools to predict the likely return on the financial investment of building a stakeholder-led vision along with a portfolio of on-ground management strategies. Our approach brings together and analyses expert knowledge to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a common vision strategy and on-ground management strategies, before any investments in these strategies are made. We test our approach in an intensively-used Australian biodiversity hotspot with 179 threatened or at-risk species. Experts predicted that an effective stakeholder vision for the region would have a relatively low cost and would significantly increase the feasibility of on-ground management strategies. As a result, our analysis indicates that a common vision is likely to be a cost-effective investment, increasing the expected persistence of threatened species in the region by 9 to 52%, depending upon the strategies implemented. Our approach can provide the maximum budget that is worth investing in building a common vision or another socially focused strategy for building support for on-ground conservation actions. The approach can assist with decisions about whether and how to allocate scarce resources amongst social and ecological actions for biodiversity conservation in other regions worldwide.

How practitioners integrate decision triggers with existing metrics in conservation monitoring

Decision triggers are defined thresholds in the status of monitored variables that indicate when to undertake management, and avoid undesirable ecosystem change. Decision triggers are frequently recommended to conservation practitioners as a tool to facilitate evidence-based management practices, but there has been limited attention paid to how practitioners are integrating decision triggers into existing monitoring programs. We sought to understand whether conservation practitioners' use of decision triggers was influenced by the type of variables in their monitoring programs. We investigated this question using a practitioner-focused workshop involving a structured discussion and review of eight monitoring programs. Among our case studies, direct measures of biodiversity (e.g. native species) were more commonly monitored, but less likely to be linked to decision triggers (10% with triggers) than measures being used as surrogates (54% with triggers) for program objectives. This was because decision triggers were associated with management of threatening processes, which were often monitored as a surrogate for a biodiversity asset of interest. By contrast, direct measures of biodiversity were more commonly associated with informal decision processes that led to activities such as management reviews or external consultation. Workshop participants were in favor of including more formalized decision triggers in their programs, but were limited by incomplete ecological knowledge, lack of appropriately skilled staff, funding constraints, and/or uncertainty regarding intervention effectiveness. We recommend that practitioners consider including decision triggers for discussion activities (such as external consultation) in their programs as more than just early warning points for future interventions, particularly for direct measures. Decision triggers for discussions should be recognized as a critical feature of monitoring programs where information and operational limitations inhibit the use of decision triggers for interventions.

Understanding meta-population trends of the Australian fur seal, with insights for adaptive monitoring

Effective ecosystem-based management requires estimates of abundance and population trends of species of interest. Trend analyses are often limited due to sparse or short-term abundance estimates for populations that can be logistically difficult to monitor over time. Therefore it is critical to assess regularly the quality of the metrics in long-term monitoring programs. For a monitoring program to provide meaningful data and remain relevant, it needs to incorporate technological improvements and the changing requirements of stakeholders, while maintaining the integrity of the data. In this paper we critically examine the monitoring program for the Australian fur seal (AFS) Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus as an example of an ad-hoc monitoring program that was co-ordinated across multiple stakeholders as a range-wide census of live pups in the Austral summers of 2002, 2007 and 2013. This 5-yearly census, combined with historic counts at individual sites, successfully tracked increasing population trends as signs of population recovery up to 2007. The 2013 census identified the first reduction in AFS pup numbers (14,248 live pups, -4.2% change per annum since 2007), however we have limited information to understand this change. We analyse the trends at breeding colonies and perform a power analysis to critically examine the reliability of those trends. We then assess the gaps in the monitoring program and discuss how we may transition this surveillance style program to an adaptive monitoring program than can evolve over time and achieve its goals. The census results are used for ecosystem-based modelling for fisheries management and emergency response planning. The ultimate goal for this program is to obtain the data we need with minimal cost, effort and impact on the fur seals. In conclusion we identify the importance of power analyses for interpreting trends, the value of regularly assessing long-term monitoring programs and proper design so that adaptive monitoring principles can be applied.

Effects of Pulp and Na-Bentonite Amendments on the Mobility of Trace Elements, Soil Enzymes Activity and Microbial Parameters under Ex Situ Aided Phytostabilization

The objective of this study was to explore the potential use of pulp (by-product) from coffee processing and Na-bentonite (commercial product) for minimizing the environmental risk of Zn, Pb and Cd in soil collected from a former mine and zinc-lead smelter. The effects of soil amendments on the physicochemical properties of soil, the structural and functional diversity of the soil microbiome as well as soil enzymes were investigated. Moreover, biomass of Festuca arundinacea Schreb. (cultivar Asterix) and the uptake of trace elements in plant tissues were studied. The outdoor pot set contained the following soils: control soil (initial), untreated soil (without additives) with grass cultivation and soils treated (with additives) with and without plant development. All of the selected parameters were measured at the beginning of the experiment (t₀), after 2 months of chemical stabilization (t₂) and at the end of the aided phytostabilization process (t₁₄). The obtained results indicated that both amendments efficiently immobilized the bioavailable fractions of Zn (87–91%) and Cd (70–83%) at t₁₄; however, they were characterized by a lower ability to bind Pb (33–50%). Pulp and Na-bentonite drastically increased the activity of dehydrogenase (70- and 12-fold, respectively) at t₁₄, while the activities of urease, acid and alkaline phosphatases differed significantly depending on the type of material that was added into the soil. Generally, the activities of these enzymes increased; however, the increase was greater for pulp (3.5-6-fold) than for the Na-bentonite treatment (1.3–2.2-fold) as compared to the control. Soil additives significantly influenced the composition and dynamics of the soil microbial biomass over the experiment. At the end, the contribution of microbial groups could be ordered as follows: gram negative bacteria, fungi, gram positive bacteria, actinomycetes regardless of the type of soil enrichment. Conversely, the shift in the functional diversity of the microorganisms in the treated soils mainly resulted from plant cultivation. Meanwhile, the highest biomass of plants at t₁₄ was collected from the soil with Na-bentonite (6.7 g dw^-1), while it was much lower in a case of pulp treatment (1.43–1.57 g dw^-1). Moreover, the measurements of the heavy metal concentrations in the plant roots and shoots clearly indicated that the plants mainly accumulated metals in the roots but that the accumulation of individual metals depended on the soil additives. The efficiency of the accumulation of Pb, Cd and Zn by the roots was determined to be 124, 100 and 26% higher in the soil that was enriched with Na-bentonite in comparison with the soil that was amended with pulp, respectively. The values of the soil indices (soil fertility, soil quality and soil alteration) confirmed the better improvement of soil functioning after its enrichment with the pulp than in the presence of Na-bentonite.

Fox control and 1080 baiting conundrums: time to prepare for a CRISPR solution

For many years, managing rock-wallaby colonies (Petrogale lateralis lateralis) in the Western Australian Wheatbelt seemed to be a matter of routinely exposing foxes (Vulpes vulpes) to toxic baits (sodium fluoroacetate, 1080®) laid around their rocky outcrops. Recent research has revealed that 1080 baitings are no longer a viable management option. Baiting is flawed over the long term because it does not erase the wallabies’ pervasive fear of being depredated by foxes, which can still make their menacing presence felt before succumbing to poison bait. Accordingly, a ‘landscape of fear’ exists on all rock-wallaby sites, creating a ‘virtual boundary’ beyond which they fear to forage. Severe overgrazing occurs, ultimately causing population crashes, leaving behind devastated outcrops greatly diminished in carrying capacity. The fallout from this scenario produces a management conundrum. Rock-wallaby populations are unstable in the absence of fox control, and conversely, they are also unstable under long-term fox control. Management is now left with few options, and the future of the colonies remains open. Other conundrums involving bait interference and mesopredator release are described. An alternative to 1080 baiting is clearly needed. Recent developments in gene engineering (CRISPR technology) offer a solution in the foreseeable future.

Can digital reinvention of ecological monitoring remove barriers to its adoption by practitioners? A case study of deer management in Scotland

Monitoring is one of the key tools employed to help understand the condition of the natural environment and inform the development of appropriate management actions. While international conventions encourage the use of standardised methods, the link between the information monitoring provides and local management needs is frequently overlooked. This problem is further exacerbated when monitoring is employed in areas where there are divergent interests among stakeholders in land use and management. Such problems are found in the management of wild deer across Scotland, where monitoring, in the form of habitat impact assessments, have been introduced as an innovation in sustainable deer management. However, the uptake of habitat impact assessments has been limited. We used deer management in Scotland as a case study to explore whether reinventing habitat impact assessments, and hosting the system on a familiar digital platform (a mobile phone) could help to remove perceived barriers to the implementation of assessments. Using the diffusion of innovations as a theoretical framework three sets of workshops were conducted with participants representing different stakeholder interests. While the proposed digital system did address perceived barriers to the conduct of habitat monitoring, in addition it revealed underlying concerns on the use and purpose of habitat monitoring as a tool in land management. Such concerns indicate friction between scientific and management perspectives, which need to be considered and addressed if monitoring is to become more widely acceptable as a tool to inform the management of natural resources.

Bayesian adaptive design: improving the effectiveness of monitoring of the Great Barrier Reef

Monitoring programs are essential for understanding patterns, trends, and threats in ecological and environmental systems. However, such programs are costly in terms of dollars, human resources, and technology, and complex in terms of balancing short- and long-term requirements. In this work, We develop new statistical methods for implementing cost-effective adaptive sampling and monitoring schemes for coral reef that can better utilize existing information and resources, and which can incorporate available prior information. Our research was motivated by developing efficient monitoring practices for Australia's Great Barrier Reef. We develop and implement two types of adaptive sampling schemes, static and sequential, and show that they can be more informative and cost-effective than an existing (nonadaptive) monitoring program. Our methods are developed in a Bayesian framework with a range of utility functions relevant to environmental monitoring. Our results demonstrate the considerable potential for adaptive design to support improved management outcomes in comparison to set-and-forget styles of surveillance monitoring.

Towards a framework to assess, compare and develop monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation in Europe

Adaptation is increasingly recognised as essential when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change on societies, economies and the environment. However, there is insufficient information about the effectiveness of adaption policies, measures and actions. For this reason, the establishment of monitoring programmes is considered to be necessary. Such programmes can contribute to knowledge, learning and data to support adaptation governance. In the European Union (EU), member states are encouraged to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). The NASs developed so far vary widely because of differing views, approaches and policies. A number of member states have progressed to monitoring and evaluating the implementation of their NAS. It is possible to identify key elements in these monitoring programmes that can inform the wider policy learning process. In this paper, four generic building blocks for creating a monitoring and evaluation programme are proposed: (1) definition of the system of interest, (2) selection of a set of indicators, (3) identification of the organisations responsible for monitoring and (4) definition of monitoring and evaluation procedures. The monitoring programmes for NAS in three member states-Finland, the UK and Germany-were analysed to show how these elements have been used in practice, taking into account their specific contexts. It is asserted that the provision of a common framework incorporating these elements will help other member states and organisations within them in setting up and improving their adaptation monitoring programmes.

Taxonomy, phylogeny and molecular epidemiology of Echinococcus multilocularis: From fundamental knowledge to health ecology

Alveolar echinococcosis, caused by the tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis, is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in humans and represents one of the 17 neglected diseases prioritised by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in 2012. Considering the major medical and veterinary importance of this parasite, the phylogeny of the genus Echinococcus is of considerable importance; yet, despite numerous efforts with both mitochondrial and nuclear data, it has remained unresolved. The genus is clearly complex, and this is one of the reasons for the incomplete understanding of its taxonomy. Although taxonomic studies have recognised E. multilocularis as a separate entity from the Echinococcus granulosus complex and other members of the genus, it would be premature to draw firm conclusions about the taxonomy of the genus before the phylogeny of the whole genus is fully resolved. The recent sequencing of E. multilocularis and E. granulosus genomes opens new possibilities for performing in-depth phylogenetic analyses. In addition, whole genome data provide the possibility of inferring phylogenies based on a large number of functional genes, i.e. genes that trace the evolutionary history of adaptation in E. multilocularis and other members of the genus. Moreover, genomic data open new avenues for studying the molecular epidemiology of E. multilocularis: genotyping studies with larger panels of genetic markers allow the genetic diversity and spatial dynamics of parasites to be evaluated with greater precision. There is an urgent need for international coordination of genotyping of E. multilocularis isolates from animals and human patients. This could be fundamental for a better understanding of the transmission of alveolar echinococcosis and for designing efficient healthcare strategies.

Monitoring and modeling wetland chloride concentrations in relationship to oil and gas development

Extraction of oil and gas via unconventional methods is becoming an important aspect of energy production worldwide. Studying the effects of this development in countries where these technologies are being widely used may provide other countries, where development may be proposed, with some insight in terms of concerns associated with development. A fairly recent expansion of unconventional oil and gas development in North America provides such an opportunity. Rapid increases in energy development in North America have caught the attention of managers and scientists as a potential stressor for wildlife and their habitats. Of particular concern in the Northern Great Plains of the U.S. is the potential for chloride-rich produced water associated with unconventional oil and gas development to alter the water chemistry of wetlands. We describe a landscape scale modeling approach designed to examine the relationship between potential chloride contamination in wetlands and patterns of oil and gas development. We used a spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to assess multiple models explaining chloride concentrations in wetlands. These models included effects related to oil and gas wells (e.g. age of wells, number of wells) and surficial geology (e.g. glacial till, outwash). We found that the model containing the number of wells and the surficial geology surrounding a wetland best explained variation in chloride concentrations. Our spatial predictions showed regions of localized high chloride concentrations. Given the spatiotemporal variability of regional wetland water chemistry, we do not regard our results as predictions of contamination, but rather as a way to identify locations that may require more intensive sampling or further investigation. We suggest that an approach like the one outlined here could easily be extended to more of an adaptive monitoring approach to answer questions about chloride contamination risk that are of interest to managers.

A framework to integrate habitat monitoring and restoration with endangered insect recovery

Monitoring is essential to track the long-term recovery of endangered species. Greater emphasis on habitat monitoring is especially important for taxa whose populations may be difficult to quantify (e.g., insects) or when true recovery (delisting) requires continuous species-specific habitat management. In this paper, we outline and implement a standardized framework to facilitate the integration of habitat monitoring with species recovery efforts. The framework has five parts: (1) identify appropriate sample units, (2) select measurable indicators of habitat requirements, (3) determine rating categories for these indicators, (4) design and implement appropriate data collection protocols, and (5) synthesize the ratings into an overall measure of habitat potential. Following these steps, we developed a set of recovery criteria to estimate habitat potential and initially assess restoration activities in the context of recovering an endangered insect, the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis). We recommend basing the habitat potential grading scheme on recovery plan criteria, the latest information on species biology, and working hypotheses as needed. The habitat-based assessment framework helps to identify which recovery areas and habitat patches are worth investing in and what type of site-specific restoration work is needed. We propose that the transparency and decision-making process in endangered insect recovery efforts could be improved through adaptive management that explicitly identifies and tracks progress toward habitat objectives and ultimate population recovery.

An overview of existing raptor contaminant monitoring activities in Europe

Biomonitoring using raptors as sentinels can provide early warning of the potential impacts of contaminants on humans and the environment and also a means of tracking the success of associated mitigation measures. Examples include detection of heavy metal-induced immune system impairment, PCB-induced altered reproductive impacts, and toxicity associated with lead in shot game. Authorisation of such releases and implementation of mitigation is now increasingly delivered through EU-wide directives but there is little established pan-European monitoring to quantify outcomes. We investigated the potential for EU-wide coordinated contaminant monitoring using raptors as sentinels. We did this using a questionnaire to ascertain the current scale of national activity across 44 European countries. According to this survey, there have been 52 different contaminant monitoring schemes with raptors over the last 50years. There were active schemes in 15 (predominantly western European) countries and 23 schemes have been running for >20years; most monitoring was conducted for >5years. Legacy persistent organic compounds (specifically organochlorine insecticides and PCBs), and metals/metalloids were monitored in most of the 15 countries. Fungicides, flame retardants and anticoagulant rodenticides were also relatively frequently monitored (each in at least 6 countries). Common buzzard (Buteo buteo), common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus), golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), white-tailed sea eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla), peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus), tawny owl (Strix aluco) and barn owl (Tyto alba) were most commonly monitored (each in 6-10 countries). Feathers and eggs were most widely analysed although many schemes also analysed body tissues. Our study reveals an existing capability across multiple European countries for contaminant monitoring using raptors. However, coordination between existing schemes and expansion of monitoring into Eastern Europe is needed. This would enable assessment of the appropriateness of the EU-regulation of substances that are hazardous to humans and the environment, the effectiveness of EU level mitigation policies, and identify pan-European spatial and temporal trends in current and emerging contaminants of concern.

Arctic marine fishes and their fisheries in light of global change

In light of ocean warming and loss of Arctic sea ice, harvested marine fishes of boreal origin (and their fisheries) move poleward into yet unexploited parts of the Arctic seas. Industrial fisheries, already in place on many Arctic shelves, will radically affect the local fish species as they turn up as unprecedented bycatch. Arctic marine fishes are indispensable to ecosystem structuring and functioning, but they are still beyond credible assessment due to lack of basic biological data. The time for conservation actions is now, and precautionary management practices by the Arctic coastal states are needed to mitigate the impact of industrial fisheries in Arctic waters. We outline four possible conservation actions: scientific credibility, 'green technology', legitimate management and overarching coordination.

Adaptive long-term monitoring of soil health in metal phytostabilization: ecological attributes and ecosystem services based on soil microbial parameters

Phytostabilization is a promising option for the remediation of metal contaminated soils which requires the implementation of long-term monitoring programs. We here propose to incorporate the paradigm of "adaptive monitoring", which enables monitoring programs to evolve iteratively as new information emerges and research questions change, to metal phytostabilization. Posing good questions that cover the chemical, toxicological and ecological concerns associated to metal contaminated soils is critical for an efficient long-term phytostabilization monitoring program. Regarding the ecological concerns, soil microbial parameters are most valuable indicators of the effectiveness of metal phytostabilization processes in terms of recovery of soil health. We suggest to group soil microbial parameters in higher-level categories such as "ecological attributes" (vigor, organization, stability) or "ecosystem services" in order to facilitate interpretation and, most importantly, to provide long-term phytostabilization monitoring programs with the required stability through time against changes in techniques, methods, interests, etc. that will inevitably occur during the monitoring program. Finally, a Phytostabilization Monitoring Card, based on both ecological attributes and ecosystem services, for soil microbial properties is provided.

Use of large-scale acoustic monitoring to assess anthropogenic pressures on Orthoptera communities

Biodiversity monitoring at large spatial and temporal scales is greatly needed in the context of global changes. Although insects are a species-rich group and are important for ecosystem functioning, they have been largely neglected in conservation studies and policies, mainly due to technical and methodological constraints. Sound detection, a nondestructive method, is easily applied within a citizen-science framework and could be an interesting solution for insect monitoring. However, it has not yet been tested at a large scale. We assessed the value of a citizen-science program in which Orthoptera species (Tettigoniidae) were monitored acoustically along roads. We used Bayesian model-averaging analyses to test whether we could detect widely known patterns of anthropogenic effects on insects, such as the negative effects of urbanization or intensive agriculture on Orthoptera populations and communities. We also examined site-abundance correlations between years and estimated the biases in species detection to evaluate and improve the protocol. Urbanization and intensive agricultural landscapes negatively affected Orthoptera species richness, diversity, and abundance. This finding is consistent with results of previous studies of Orthoptera, vertebrates, carabids, and butterflies. The average mass of communities decreased as urbanization increased. The dispersal ability of communities increased as the percentage of agricultural land and, to a lesser extent, urban area increased. Despite changes in abundances over time, we found significant correlations between yearly abundances. We identified biases linked to the protocol (e.g., car speed or temperature) that can be accounted for ease in analyses. We argue that acoustic monitoring of Orthoptera along roads offers several advantages for assessing Orthoptera biodiversity at large spatial and temporal extents, particularly in a citizen science framework.

Towards the harmonization between National Forest Inventory and Forest Condition Monitoring. Consistency of plot allocation and effect of tree selection methods on sample statistics in Italy

In the frame of a process aiming at harmonizing National Forest Inventory (NFI) and ICP Forests Level I Forest Condition Monitoring (FCM) in Italy, we investigated (a) the long-term consistency between FCM sample points (a subsample of the first NFI, 1985, NFI_1) and recent forest area estimates (after the second NFI, 2005, NFI_2) and (b) the effect of tree selection method (tree-based or plot-based) on sample composition and defoliation statistics. The two investigations were carried out on 261 and 252 FCM sites, respectively. Results show that some individual forest categories (larch and stone pine, Norway spruce, other coniferous, beech, temperate oaks and cork oak forests) are over-represented and others (hornbeam and hophornbeam, other deciduous broadleaved and holm oak forests) are under-represented in the FCM sample. This is probably due to a change in forest cover, which has increased by 1,559,200 ha from 1985 to 2005. In case of shift from a tree-based to a plot-based selection method, 3,130 (46.7%) of the original 6,703 sample trees will be abandoned, and 1,473 new trees will be selected. The balance between exclusion of former sample trees and inclusion of new ones will be particularly unfavourable for conifers (with only 16.4% of excluded trees replaced by new ones) and less for deciduous broadleaves (with 63.5% of excluded trees replaced). The total number of tree species surveyed will not be impacted, while the number of trees per species will, and the resulting (plot-based) sample composition will have a much larger frequency of deciduous broadleaved trees. The newly selected trees have-in general-smaller diameter at breast height (DBH) and defoliation scores. Given the larger rate of turnover, the deciduous broadleaved part of the sample will be more impacted. Our results suggest that both a revision of FCM network to account for forest area change and a plot-based approach to permit statistical inference and avoid bias in the tree sample composition in terms of DBH (and likely age and structure) are desirable in Italy. As the adoption of a plot-based approach will keep a large share of the trees formerly selected, direct tree-by-tree comparison will remain possible, thus limiting the impact on the time series comparability. In addition, the plot-based design will favour the integration with NFI_2.

Monitoring of the eggs of the Karkloof blue butterfly, <i>Orachrysops ariadne</i>, for its conservation management

The Endangered Orachrysops ariadne (Butler 1898) (Karkloof blue butterfly) is endemic to the Endangered Moist Midlands Grassland in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and is extant at four sites. The results from the monitoring of the eggs laid by O. ariadne in a grassland area that is frequently burnt by poor rural people to ensure that palatable grass is available to their livestock, suggested the implementation of management interventions (fencing and firebreak burning) to prevent the local extinction of the butterfly. The number of eggs at the monitoring site declined dramatically between 2002 and 2003 and fluctuated after the management interventions were initiated properly in 2008, but had nearly reached the target number of 250 by 2013. An index count method for the monitoring of O. ariadne eggs at the other three known colonies, where plant invasion rather than uncontrolled burning is a major threat, was developed and shown to be efficient with regard to time relative to the number of eggs sampled. The host ant Camponotus natalensis (F. Smith 1858) (Natal sugar ant) was found to be present in all the host-plant patches at one colony site, indicating that all host-plant patches are likely to be breeding areas for the butterfly. Invasive plant control at and appropriate burning of the habitat of O. ariadne should assist in ensuring the survival of these colonies.Conservation implications: Adaptive monitoring and management of threatened endemic invertebrates and their habitats may be crucial for their continued survival. The development of efficient methods for the monitoring of such species is required where resources are limited, as threats to the species may cause sudden and irreversible declines in population size.

Dynamic macroecology and the future for biodiversity

Reliable projections of climate-change impacts on biodiversity are vital in formulating conservation and management strategies that best retain biodiversity into the future. While recent modelling has focussed largely on individual species, macroecology has the potential to add significant value to these efforts, by incorporating important community-level constraints and processes. Here we show how a new dynamic macroecological approach can project climate-change impacts collectively across all species in a diverse taxonomic group, overcoming shortfalls in our knowledge of biodiversity, while incorporating the key processes of dispersal and community assembly. Our approach applies a recently published technique (DynamicFOAM) to predict the present composition of every community, which form the initial conditions for a new metacommunity model (M-SET) that projects changes in composition over time, under specified climate and habitat scenarios. Applying this approach at fine resolution to plant biodiversity in Tasmania (2,051 species; 1,157,587 communities), we project high average turnover in community composition from 2010 to 2100 (mean Sorensen's dissimilarity = 0.71 (±7.0 × 10^-5 )), with major reductions in species richness (32.9 (±0.02) species lost per community) and no plant species benefitting from climate change in the long term. We also demonstrate how our modelling approach can identify habitat likely to be of high value for retaining rare and poorly reserved species under climate change. Our analyses highlight the potential value of this dynamic macroecological approach, that incorporates key ecological processes in projecting climate change impacts for all species simultaneously and uses simple macroecological inputs that can be derived even for highly diverse and poorly studied taxa.